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(PDF) The coming food crisis in the Middle East | Stefan Lukas - Academia.edu

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translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="5" data-entity-id="91330373" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/91330373/Gulf_Cooperation_Council_food_security_balancing_the_equation">Gulf Cooperation Council food security: balancing the equation</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="78043057" href="https://independent.academia.edu/DrMahendraJungShah">Dr Mahendra Jung Shah</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Nature Middle East, 2010</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal&quot;,&quot;work_title&quot;:&quot;Gulf Cooperation Council food security: balancing the equation&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:94648175,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;work_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.academia.edu/91330373/Gulf_Cooperation_Council_food_security_balancing_the_equation&quot;,&quot;alternativeTracking&quot;:true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/91330373/Gulf_Cooperation_Council_food_security_balancing_the_equation"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="6" data-entity-id="40696608" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/40696608/Ben_Hassen_T_and_El_Bilali_H_2019_Food_Security_in_the_Gulf_Cooperation_Council_Countries_Challenges_and_Prospects_Journal_of_Food_Security_7_5_159_169_doi_10_12691_jfs_7_5_2">Ben Hassen T. and El Bilali H. (2019). Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Challenges and Prospects. Journal of Food Security, 7(5): 159-169. doi: 10.12691/jfs-7-5-2</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="125967447" href="https://independent.academia.edu/HamidElBilali">Hamid El Bilali</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Journal of Food Security, 7(5): 159-169., 2019</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Food insecurity concerns are as old as humanity. Food security exists when all population, at all times, has access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. It is built on four pillars, namely food availability, food access, food utilisation, and stability. While it is widely admitted that food security increases with economic development, also rich countries in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, face specific challenges. Therefore, this review paper analyses the state, determinants and perspectives of food security in GCC region. Historically, food security was not an issue for the GCC states. In fact, GCC states are capital rich and have no foreign exchange limitation for food import. Consequently, due to their robust fiscal position resulting in high buying power, these countries, have been less vulnerable to price risk than other food importers; and able to bridge the shortfall in domestic production. As a result, in 2018, the six GCC members have been ranked as the most food secure in the Arab world and among the most food secure countries in the world. However, in the wake of the 2007-2008 global food crisis, food security became an ongoing challenge. The crisis exposed the high dependence of GCC countries on imports, limits of import-based food policies and the need to increase the local production. However, agriculture is limited by several natural conditions, such as scarce water resources and poor soils, and aquifers have been heavily exploited above the average natural recharge. Further, potentially, more critical to GCC food security is availability risk, which arises when an import-dependent country is not able to obtain food, even if it has sufficient funds to purchase it. The paper makes the case for promoting a productive and sustainable agriculture, with high resources use efficiency, to increase food security in the GCC.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal&quot;,&quot;work_title&quot;:&quot;Ben Hassen T. and El Bilali H. (2019). Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Challenges and Prospects. Journal of Food Security, 7(5): 159-169. doi: 10.12691/jfs-7-5-2&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:60981411,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;work_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.academia.edu/40696608/Ben_Hassen_T_and_El_Bilali_H_2019_Food_Security_in_the_Gulf_Cooperation_Council_Countries_Challenges_and_Prospects_Journal_of_Food_Security_7_5_159_169_doi_10_12691_jfs_7_5_2&quot;,&quot;alternativeTracking&quot;:true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/40696608/Ben_Hassen_T_and_El_Bilali_H_2019_Food_Security_in_the_Gulf_Cooperation_Council_Countries_Challenges_and_Prospects_Journal_of_Food_Security_7_5_159_169_doi_10_12691_jfs_7_5_2"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="7" data-entity-id="110983625" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/110983625/Food_insecurity_and_political_instability_during_the_Arab_Spring">Food insecurity and political instability during the Arab Spring</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="124890151" href="https://unibo.academia.edu/GiuliaSoffiantini">Giulia Soffiantini</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Global Food Security, 2020</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal&quot;,&quot;work_title&quot;:&quot;Food insecurity and political instability during the Arab Spring&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:108631129,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;work_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.academia.edu/110983625/Food_insecurity_and_political_instability_during_the_Arab_Spring&quot;,&quot;alternativeTracking&quot;:true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/110983625/Food_insecurity_and_political_instability_during_the_Arab_Spring"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="8" data-entity-id="29613012" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/29613012/Food_security_perspectives_from_the_Arab_World">Food security: perspectives from the Arab World</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="45405820" href="https://independent.academia.edu/KShideed">K. H Shideed</a><span>, </span><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="55998534" href="https://independent.academia.edu/MyleneKherallah">Mylene Kherallah</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Food Security, 2011</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal&quot;,&quot;work_title&quot;:&quot;Food security: perspectives from the Arab World&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:50053671,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;work_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.academia.edu/29613012/Food_security_perspectives_from_the_Arab_World&quot;,&quot;alternativeTracking&quot;:true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/29613012/Food_security_perspectives_from_the_Arab_World"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="9" data-entity-id="833188" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/833188/The_Food_Crises_and_Political_Instability_in_North_Africa_and_the_Middle_East">The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="131282" href="https://necsi.academia.edu/YaneerBarYam">Yaneer Bar-Yam</a><span>, </span><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="1214569" href="https://necsi.academia.edu/MarcoLagi">Marco Lagi</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These bservations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption. Underlying the food price peaks we also find an ongoing trend of increasing prices. We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point to the domain of high impacts, even without price peaks, in 2012-2013. This implies that avoiding global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal&quot;,&quot;work_title&quot;:&quot;The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:32379819,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;work_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.academia.edu/833188/The_Food_Crises_and_Political_Instability_in_North_Africa_and_the_Middle_East&quot;,&quot;alternativeTracking&quot;:true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/833188/The_Food_Crises_and_Political_Instability_in_North_Africa_and_the_Middle_East"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--wrapper js-loswp-sticky-ctas hidden"><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--grid-container"><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--container"><button class="ds2-5-button js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;continue-reading-button--sticky-ctas&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:78551435,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;workUrl&quot;:null}">See full PDF</button><button class="ds2-5-button ds2-5-button--secondary js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{&quot;location&quot;:&quot;download-pdf-button--sticky-ctas&quot;,&quot;attachmentId&quot;:78551435,&quot;attachmentType&quot;:&quot;pdf&quot;,&quot;workUrl&quot;:null}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 20px" translate="no">download</span>Download PDF</button></div></div></div><div class="ds-below-fold--grid-container"><div class="ds-work--container js-loswp-embedded-document"><div class="attachment_preview" data-attachment="Attachment_78551435" style="display: none"><div class="js-scribd-document-container"><div class="scribd--document-loading js-scribd-document-loader" style="display: block;"><img alt="Loading..." src="//a.academia-assets.com/images/loaders/paper-load.gif" /><p>Loading Preview</p></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="scribd--no-preview-alert js-preview-unavailable"><p>Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. 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