The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" dir="ltr" prefix="og: https://ogp.me/ns#"> <head> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="//cdn.cfr.org/themes/custom/cfr_theme/favicon-32x32.png" sizes="32x32" /> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="//cdn.cfr.org/themes/custom/cfr_theme/favicon-16x16.png" sizes="16x16" /> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="//cdn.cfr.org/themes/custom/cfr_theme/apple-touch-icon.png" /> <meta property="fb:pages" content="10234472029" /> <meta property="fb:app_id" content="1202896923085736" /> <meta name="google-site-verification" content="ed21dLJA4q-k2GnrORmTFP8mc97sOOWjd-ZkJbmPCgw" /> <meta name="msvalidate.01" content="846D62D6CE4E94B1C328BE585F36F0DE" /> <title>The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare? | Council on Foreign Relations</title> <meta charset="utf-8" /> <meta property="sailthru.tags" content="author-joshua-kurlantzick, tag-myanmar, tag-wars-and-conflict, tag-united-states" /> <script>var dataLayer = [{"bio":["expert"],"republish":"no","program name":"Renewing America","programName":"Renewing America","topic":["Wars and Conflict"],"region":["Myanmar","United States"],"blogname":"Asia Unbound","nodeid_dl":"249970"}];</script> <style>/* @see https://github.com/aFarkas/lazysizes#broken-image-symbol */.js img.lazyload:not([src]) { visibility: hidden; }/* @see https://github.com/aFarkas/lazysizes#automatically-setting-the-sizes-attribute */.js img.lazyloaded[data-sizes=auto] { display: block; width: 100%; }</style> <meta name="description" content="Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse." /> <meta name="keywords" content="Myanmar,Wars and Conflict,United States" /> <link rel="canonical" href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries" /> <link rel="image_src" href="Blinken Burma" /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Council on Foreign Relations" /> <meta property="og:type" content="article" /> <meta property="og:title" content="The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?" /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/open_graph/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" /> <meta property="og:street_address" content="58 East 68th Street" /> <meta property="og:locality" content="New York" /> <meta property="og:region" content="NY" /> <meta property="og:postal_code" content="10065" /> <meta property="og:country_name" content="USA" /> <meta property="og:phone_number" content="1.212.434.9400" /> <meta property="og:fax_number" content="1.212.434.9800" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary" /> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@CFR_org" /> <meta name="Generator" content="Drupal 10 (https://www.drupal.org)" /> <meta name="MobileOptimized" content="width" /> <meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="true" /> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=0" /> <style>div#sliding-popup, div#sliding-popup .eu-cookie-withdraw-banner, .eu-cookie-withdraw-tab {background: #0779bf} div#sliding-popup.eu-cookie-withdraw-wrapper { background: transparent; } #sliding-popup h1, #sliding-popup h2, #sliding-popup h3, #sliding-popup p, #sliding-popup label, #sliding-popup div, .eu-cookie-compliance-more-button, .eu-cookie-compliance-secondary-button, .eu-cookie-withdraw-tab { color: #ffffff;} .eu-cookie-withdraw-tab { border-color: #ffffff;}</style> <script type="application/ld+json">{ "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?", "name": "The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?", "about": "Myanmar, Wars and Conflict, United States", "description": "Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse.", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "representativeOfPage": "True", "url": "//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/open_graph/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" }, "datePublished": "2023-12-04T13:19:29-0500", "dateModified": "2023-12-04T16:19:13-0500", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Council on Foreign Relations", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.facebook.com/councilonforeignrelations", "https://twitter.com/CFR_org", "https://www.youtube.com/user/cfr", "https://www.instagram.com/cfr_org/", "https://www.linkedin.com/company/council-on-foreign-relations" ], "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-logo-og.png" } }, "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.cfr.org/blog/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Joshua Kurlantzick", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/expert/joshua-kurlantzick" } } ] }</script> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.cfr.org/blog/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries" /> <meta property="og:description" content="Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse." /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/open_graph_article/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse." /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/open_graph_article/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" /> <link rel="icon" href="//cdn.cfr.org/themes/custom/cfr_theme/favicon.ico" type="image/vnd.microsoft.icon" /> <script>(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];var j=d.createElement(s);var dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl+'';j.async=true;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-KFS3NQ');</script> <link rel="stylesheet" media="all" href="/sites/default/files/css/css_ryR-CBJiZj4AMPAS93D0GTIWQMMvXd3DzCgVFfi_wYo.css?delta=0&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb" /> <link rel="stylesheet" media="all" href="/sites/default/files/css/css_1ga5JdZt96cnnQc8-O77b3L3Vr86ZjIJN6I35TOdG9o.css?delta=1&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb" /> <script type="application/json" data-drupal-selector="drupal-settings-json">{"path":{"baseUrl":"\/","pathPrefix":"","currentPath":"node\/249970","currentPathIsAdmin":false,"isFront":false,"currentLanguage":"en"},"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJyNU9Fy1DAM_KHk_BHtMPBa4Nmj2LpYrR0HSUkJX18lBzcuzTC8ZJxd2dKupACzhgRuAMEuXNmPuQ6QXQG-IuYDSrXgDCN6waBUJ3EQV5gCRg-L1lDLnFFv1wUoa-LFPcMKEphm9TCTzzQw8HbEaEKfEFZCURdBIcOG_EWxyB--oIOMrO0_K4WMH5FeMpV-grWhhrGnYiX38kqmr2UWVZPQIDfF_cf3jRBpit4hLR5_Bpx3HyA3jAmKyA1wy49lwNigkoCxfyFTVhld5GWGfHlv407QpMiW4fL8Y0HeLtfKpbt75QZM5l9labCEebYKYvR3zGutWVxgBMX4jQqe0otoLY_GTmKyHqrlnvSzCco0_c-N74L8YBnGamadhP_V45OIucYAop9oIkn_CPiq1qZzXvTRSnjClfaSzmJWiljtBV2kw8WHWl8I_eE77ePszkAf8QpL1i7Dr83tn44x_N6asdYx4-UOeJwa9n7qBIFDerct7piHSzHFxdocRDohxVer0R-jbyNgUyKbmGfHer4BPk1wWw","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":{"form_action_p_pvdeGsVG5zNF_XLGPTvYSKCf43t8qZYSwcfZl2uzM":true,"\/blog\/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries?ajax_form=1":true},"cfr_sailthru":{"customerId":"16a6a423ea139031de8812f22132ba91"},"dataLayer":{"defaultLang":"en","languages":{"en":{"id":"en","name":"English","direction":"ltr","weight":0}}},"lazy":{"lazysizes":{"lazyClass":"lazyload","loadedClass":"lazyloaded","loadingClass":"lazyloading","preloadClass":"lazypreload","errorClass":"lazyerror","autosizesClass":"lazyautosizes","srcAttr":"data-src","srcsetAttr":"data-srcset","sizesAttr":"data-sizes","minSize":40,"customMedia":[],"init":true,"expFactor":1.5,"hFac":0.8,"loadMode":2,"loadHidden":true,"ricTimeout":0,"throttleDelay":125,"plugins":[]},"placeholderSrc":"","preferNative":false,"minified":true,"libraryPath":"\/libraries\/lazysizes"},"search_autocomplete":{"header_search":{"source":"\/callback\/search_autocomplete","selector":".main-header__autocomplete","minChars":3,"maxSuggestions":10,"autoSubmit":true,"autoRedirect":true,"theme":"minimal","filters":["q","keyword"],"noResult":{"group":{"group_id":"no_results"},"label":"Search CFR.org for \u003Cstrong\u003E[search-phrase]\u003C\/strong\u003E.","value":"[search-phrase]","link":""},"moreResults":{"group":{"group_id":"more_results"},"label":"View all results for \u003Cstrong\u003E[search-phrase]\u003C\/strong\u003E.","value":"[search-phrase]","link":""}},"keyword_search":{"source":"\/callback\/search_autocomplete","selector":"#views-exposed-form-site-search-page-1 input.form-text","minChars":3,"maxSuggestions":10,"autoSubmit":true,"autoRedirect":true,"theme":"minimal","filters":["q","keyword"],"noResult":{"group":{"group_id":"no_results"},"label":"Search CFR.org for \u003Cstrong\u003E[search-phrase]\u003C\/strong\u003E.","value":"[search-phrase]","link":""},"moreResults":{"group":{"group_id":"more_results"},"label":"View all results for \u003Cstrong\u003E[search-phrase]\u003C\/strong\u003E.","value":"[search-phrase]","link":""}}},"eu_cookie_compliance":{"cookie_policy_version":"1.0.0","popup_enabled":true,"popup_agreed_enabled":false,"popup_hide_agreed":false,"popup_clicking_confirmation":false,"popup_scrolling_confirmation":false,"popup_html_info":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-banner eu-cookie-compliance-banner-info eu-cookie-compliance-banner--opt-in\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022popup-content info eu-cookie-compliance-content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-text\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-message\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EThis site uses cookies to improve your user experience. By continuing to browse this site you accept the use of cookies as explained in our \u003Ca href=\u0022\/privacy-policy#cookies\u0022\u003EPrivacy Policy\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-buttons\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-buttons\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022agree-button eu-cookie-compliance-secondary-button button-container__btn\u0022 onclick=\u0022dataLayer.push({\u0027event\u0027: \u0027gdpr_accept_cfr\u0027});\u0022\u003EAccept\u003C\/button\u003E\n \u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022decline-button eu-cookie-compliance-default-button button-container__btn\u0022 onclick=\u0022dataLayer.push({\u0027event\u0027: \u0027gdpr_decline_cfr\u0027});\u0022\u003EDecline\u003C\/button\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","use_mobile_message":false,"mobile_popup_html_info":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-banner eu-cookie-compliance-banner-info eu-cookie-compliance-banner--opt-in\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022popup-content info eu-cookie-compliance-content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-text\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-message\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-buttons\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-buttons\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022agree-button eu-cookie-compliance-secondary-button button-container__btn\u0022 onclick=\u0022dataLayer.push({\u0027event\u0027: \u0027gdpr_accept_cfr\u0027});\u0022\u003EAccept\u003C\/button\u003E\n \u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022decline-button eu-cookie-compliance-default-button button-container__btn\u0022 onclick=\u0022dataLayer.push({\u0027event\u0027: \u0027gdpr_decline_cfr\u0027});\u0022\u003EDecline\u003C\/button\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","mobile_breakpoint":768,"popup_html_agreed":false,"popup_use_bare_css":false,"popup_height":"auto","popup_width":"100%","popup_delay":1000,"popup_link":"\/report\/protecting-data-privacy-user-friendly-software","popup_link_new_window":true,"popup_position":false,"fixed_top_position":true,"popup_language":"en","store_consent":false,"better_support_for_screen_readers":false,"cookie_name":"cookie-agreed","reload_page":false,"domain":"","domain_all_sites":false,"popup_eu_only":false,"popup_eu_only_js":true,"cookie_lifetime":100,"cookie_session":0,"set_cookie_session_zero_on_disagree":0,"disagree_do_not_show_popup":false,"method":"opt_in","automatic_cookies_removal":false,"allowed_cookies":"","withdraw_markup":"\u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-withdraw-tab\u0022\u003EPrivacy settings\u003C\/button\u003E\n\u003Cdiv aria-labelledby=\u0022popup-text\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-withdraw-banner\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022popup-content info eu-cookie-compliance-content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-text\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-message\u0022 role=\u0022document\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch2\u003EWe use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EYou have given your consent for us to set cookies.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022popup-buttons\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-compliance-buttons\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cbutton type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022eu-cookie-withdraw-button \u0022\u003EWithdraw consent\u003C\/button\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","withdraw_enabled":false,"reload_options":null,"reload_routes_list":"","withdraw_button_on_info_popup":false,"cookie_categories":[],"cookie_categories_details":[],"enable_save_preferences_button":false,"cookie_value_disagreed":"0","cookie_value_agreed_show_thank_you":"1","cookie_value_agreed":"2","containing_element":"body","settings_tab_enabled":false,"olivero_primary_button_classes":"","olivero_secondary_button_classes":"","close_button_action":"","open_by_default":true,"modules_allow_popup":true,"hide_the_banner":false,"geoip_match":true},"dd_datalayer_tools":{"data_layers":{"0":{"type":"bypass"},"Head":[{"type":"open_text","id":"246330","value":"\/\/ Content Text Copied\r\nconsole.log(\u0027Content Text Copied: Loaded\u0027);\r\nfunction getSelectionText() {\r\n var text = \u0022\u0022;\r\n if (window.getSelection) {\r\n text = window.getSelection().toString();\r\n } else if (document.selection \u0026\u0026 document.selection.type !== \u0022Control\u0022) {\r\n text = document.selection.createRange().text;\r\n }\r\n return text;\r\n}\r\ndocument.addEventListener(\u0022copy\u0022, function(e){\r\n console.log(\u0027Text Copied\u0027);\r\n dataLayer.push({\r\n \u0022contentTextCopiedMetric\u0022: \u00221\u0022,\r\n \u0022event\u0022: \u0022Content Text Copied\u0022,\r\n \u0022nonInteraction\u0022: \u0022False\u0022,\r\n \u0022target\u0022: getSelectionText()\r\n });\r\n});"},{"type":"open_text","id":"246328","value":"var contentTypeToCheck = [\u0022article\u0022, \u0022blog\u0022, \u0022backgrounder\u0022, \u0022in-brief\u0022];\r\nvar contentType = document.referrer.replace(\/^[^:]+:\\\/\\\/[^\/]+\\\/\/, \u0022\u0022).replace(\/\\\/.*\/, \u0022\u0022);\r\nvar specialCaseBlog = document.referrer.replace(\/^[^:]+:\\\/\\\/[^\/]+\/, \u0022\u0022).replace(\/#.*\/, \u0022\u0022);\r\nif(specialCaseBlog !== \u0022\/blog\u0022) {\r\n if(contentTypeToCheck.includes(contentType)){\r\n dataLayer.push({\r\n \u0022event\u0022: \u0022Recirculation\u0022,\r\n \u0022nonInteraction\u0022: \u0022False\u0022,\r\n \u0022recirculationMetric\u0022: \u00221\u0022,\r\n \u0022source\u0022: document.referrer\r\n });\r\n }\r\n}"},{"type":"open_text","id":"246327","value":"$(document).ajaxComplete(function(event, request, settings) {\r\n var eventLabel = $(document).find(\u0022head title\u0022).text();\r\n var responseUrl = settings.url;\r\n if(responseUrl.indexOf(\u0022view_name=topic_filters_cards\u0026view_display_id=filters_block\u0022) !== -1) {\r\n dataLayer.push({\r\n \u0022event\u0022: \u0022Infinite Scroll Article\u0022,\r\n \u0022infiniteScrollMetric\u0022: \u00221\u0022,\r\n \u0022nonInteraction\u0022: \u0022False\u0022\r\n });\r\n }\r\n});"},{"type":"open_text","id":"246326","value":"var currentUrl = window.location.href;\r\nvar contentRecirculationCount = 1;\r\n$(document).ajaxComplete(function( event, request, settings ) {\r\n var responseText = request.responseText;\r\n if((responseText.indexOf(\u0022cfr-transported-content\u0022) !== -1) \u0026\u0026 (responseText.indexOf(\u0022article--blog-post\u0022) !== -1)) {\r\n var newUrl = window.location.protocol + \u0022\/\/\u0022 + location.host;\r\n var eventLabel = currentUrl + \u0022 to \u0022 + newUrl + \u0022 : \u0022 + contentRecirculationCount + \u0022-\u0022 + (contentRecirculationCount+1);\r\n dataLayer.push({\r\n \u0022event\u0022 : \u0022Infinite Scroll Next Article\u0022,\r\n \u0022infiniteScrollMetric\u0022 : \u00221\u0022,\r\n \u0022nonInteraction\u0022 : \u0022False\u0022\r\n });\r\n\r\n contentRecirculationCount = contentRecirculationCount + 1;\r\n currentUrl = newUrl;\r\n }\r\n});\r\n"},{"type":"open_text","id":"246325","value":"var scroll_name_array=[];\r\n$(window).bind(\u0022scroll\u0022, function() {\r\n if($(window).scrollTop() \u003E= $(\u0022.body-content\u0022).offset().top + $(\u0022.body-content\u0022).outerHeight() - window.innerHeight) {\r\n if(!scroll_name_array.includes(\u0022scroll\u0022)) {\r\n scroll_name_array.push(\u0022scroll\u0022);\r\n dataLayer.push({\r\n \u0022contentBottomReachedMetric\u0022 : \u00221\u0022,\r\n \u0022event\u0022: \u0022Content Bottom Reached\u0022,\r\n \u0022nonInteraction\u0022: \u0022False\u0022,\r\n \u0022source\u0022: \u0022\u0022\r\n });\r\n }\r\n }\r\n});"},{"type":"open_text","id":"231361","value":"function getQueryParams(qs) {\r\n var params = {}, tokens, re = \/[?\u0026]?([^=]+)=([^\u0026]*)\/g;\r\n qs = qs.split(\u0022+\u0022).join(\u0022 \u0022);\r\n while (tokens === re.exec(qs)) {\r\n params[decodeURIComponent(tokens[1])] = decodeURIComponent(tokens[2]);\r\n }\r\n return params;\r\n}\r\nvar query_params = getQueryParams(document.location.search);\r\ndataLayer.push(query_params);"},{"type":"open_text","id":"228497","value":"if(($(\u0022article.main-wrapper p\u0022).length) \u003E 0) {\r\n var wordCountTemp = $(\u0022article.main-wrapper p\u0022).text();\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/(^\\s*)|(\\s*$)\/gi,\u0022\u0022);\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/[ ]{2,}\/gi,\u0022 \u0022);\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/\\n \/,\u0022\\n\u0022);\r\n var wordCount = wordCountTemp.split(\u0022 \u0022).length;\r\n dataLayer.push({\u0022contentWordCount\u0022: wordCount});\r\n}\r\n\r\nif(($(\u0022article.article--immersive p\u0022).length) \u003E 0) {\r\n var wordCountTemp = $(\u0022article.article--immersive p\u0022).text();\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/(^\\s*)|(\\s*$)\/gi,\u0022\u0022);\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/[ ]{2,}\/gi,\u0022 \u0022);\r\n wordCountTemp = wordCountTemp.replace(\/\\n \/,\u0022\\n\u0022);\r\n var wordCount = wordCountTemp.split(\u0022 \u0022).length;\r\n dataLayer.push({\u0022contentWordCount\u0022: wordCount});\r\n}"},{"type":"open_text","id":"228501","value":"if(($(\u0022div.layout-content\u0022).length) \u003E 0) {\r\n var editorialContentAssetType = \u0022none\u0022;\r\n var nodeNames = [];\r\n var contentNames = [{\r\n \u0022img\u0022: \u0022image\u0022,\r\n \u0022audio\u0022: \u0022audio\u0022,\r\n \u0022div\u0022: \u0022video\u0022\r\n }];\r\n $(\u0022img, audio, .video-player\u0022).each(function(index) {\r\n var $el = $(this);\r\n var labelKey = $el.prop(\u0022tagName\u0022).toLowerCase();\r\n nodeNames[$el.prop(\u0022tagName\u0022)] = contentNames[0][labelKey];\r\n });\r\n if(!$.isEmptyObject(nodeNames)) {\r\n var nodeItems = [];\r\n for (var key in nodeNames) {\r\n nodeItems.push(nodeNames[key]);\r\n }\r\n editorialContentAssetType = nodeItems.join(\u0022-\u0022);\r\n }\r\n dataLayer.push({\u0022editorialContentAssetType\u0022: editorialContentAssetType});\r\n}"},{"type":"open_text","id":"228503","value":"dataLayer.push({\u0022contentGroup2\u0022: \u0022Editorial Text\u0022});"},{"type":"open_text","id":"228562","value":"dataLayer.push({\u0022pubType\u0022: \u0022article\u0022});"},{"event":"Social Share Click","":null,"custom_values":[],"label":"Social Share Click","type":"Dynamic","id":"246351","domSpecificClassId":".share-kit__icons button.share-kit__hotspot","domSelectElement":"","nonInteraction":"False","triggerElementType":"ajax","eventHandlerType":"click","elementWithClassID":".share-kit__icons button.share-kit__hotspot"},{"event":"Order Print Copy Click","":null,"custom_values":[],"label":"Order Print Copy Click","type":"Dynamic","id":"246350","domSpecificClassId":".article-header__section-bottom a.button-container__btn:contains(Order Print Copy)","domSelectElement":"section","nonInteraction":"False","triggerElementType":"ajax","eventHandlerType":"click","elementWithClassID":"section.article-header__section-bottom a.button-container__btn:contains(Order Print Copy)"},{"event":"Order Paperback Click","":null,"custom_values":[],"label":"Order Paperback Click","type":"Dynamic","id":"246349","domSpecificClassId":".article-header__section-bottom a.button-container__btn:contains(Order Paperback)","domSelectElement":"section","nonInteraction":"False","triggerElementType":"ajax","eventHandlerType":"click","elementWithClassID":"section.article-header__section-bottom a.button-container__btn:contains(Order Paperback)"},{"event":"order e-book click","":null,"custom_values":[],"label":"order e-book click","type":"Dynamic","id":"246348","domSpecificClassId":".article-header__section-bottom button.button-container__btn:contains(Order E-Book)","domSelectElement":"section","nonInteraction":"False","triggerElementType":"ajax","eventHandlerType":"click","elementWithClassID":"section.article-header__section-bottom button.button-container__btn:contains(Order E-Book)"},{"event":"Footer Logo Click","":null,"custom_values":[],"label":"Footer Logo Click","type":"Dynamic","id":"246322","domSpecificClassId":" a.main-footer__logo-btn","domSelectElement":"footer","nonInteraction":"False","triggerElementType":"ajax","eventHandlerType":"click","elementWithClassID":"footer a.main-footer__logo-btn"}],"1":{"type":"bypass"}},"custom_variables":[],"cfr_custom_variables":[{"contentType":"Post"},{"postDate":"2023-12-04T21:19:13"},{"author":"Joshua Kurlantzick"}]},"customDimensionUserCategory":[{"role":["anonymous"]},{"role":["anonymous"]}],"createdTime":[{"createdTime":"2023-12-04"}],"postDateRevision":[{"changedTime":"2024-01-30"}],"cfrNewsletter":{"recaptcha":{"siteKey":"6LdVm2YUAAAAALLTS2XVQD5O47VtNJIKQTsrqP9t"}},"ajax":{"cfr-newsletter-signup-form--asia-unbound-embedded-form--submit":{"wrapper":"asia-unbound-embedded-form","callback":[{},"ajaxSubmit"],"event":"click","prevent":"mousedown","url":"\/blog\/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries?ajax_form=1","httpMethod":"POST","dialogType":"ajax","submit":{"_triggering_element_name":"op","_triggering_element_value":"Subscribe"}}},"sitewideAlert":{"refreshInterval":15000,"automaticRefresh":false},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}}</script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_XIMlUC5DxSL957ExeQbfOmMl67HrazEjW48P7tVUEUM.js?scope=header&delta=0&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="https://ak.sail-horizon.com/spm/spm.v1.min.js"></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_bkuE6ZcVhImEOv9sRH5dD7sYTUv7uZtHFHDcqEA9N08.js?scope=header&delta=2&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api.js?render=explicit" async defer></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_uk-5W4zAfhQ3FmPSivCT6EkSWlziJZObe2mecXVbs9A.js?scope=header&delta=4&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="/modules/custom/cfr_sailthru/js/sailthru_init.js?srwa6e" async defer></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_n5hZGATm86yldfx1LeNBZ5GkULqb6X6CIYTBQXhc6OA.js?scope=header&delta=6&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api.js?hl=en&render=explicit&onload=drupalRecaptchaOnload" async defer></script> </head> <body class="node-article page--type--article published"> <div class="body-clip-overflow"> <a href="#main-content" class="visually-hidden focusable"> Skip to main content </a> <noscript><iframe src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-KFS3NQ" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript><div data-sitewide-alert></div> <div class="dialog-off-canvas-main-canvas" data-off-canvas-main-canvas> <div class="layout-container"> <header role="banner"> <div> <div id="block-topicnavigationblock"> <header class="main-header main-header--without-msp"> <div class="main-header__container"> <div class="main-header__search"> <div class="main-header__search-container"> <form action="/search" autocomplete="off" class="main-header__search-form"> <input type="search" name="keyword" placeholder="What are you searching for?" class="main-header__search-input main-header__autocomplete" /> <button type="button" class="main-header__search-cancel"> Cancel </button> </form> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__belt"> <div class="main-header__belt-container"> <div class="main-header__branding"> <a href="/" class="main-header__branding-link"> <svg viewBox="0 0 125 60" class="main-header__branding-icon icon-logo-signature" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Council on Foreign Relations</title> <path d="M106.909 13.178c-.502.92-1.081 1.458-1.854 1.458-.713 0-1.01-.522-.975-1.458.062-1.772 1.163-4.833 2.824-4.833.6 0 .999.416.97 1.371-.026.912-.386 2.406-.965 3.462m-.055-5.377c-2.64 0-4.56 2.264-4.63 4.755-.04 1.428.743 2.647 2.703 2.647 3.06 0 4.676-2.7 4.73-4.714.053-1.57-.944-2.688-2.803-2.688m17.484 3.789c0-.612-.316-1.01-.782-1.01-.404 0-.679.3-.679.677 0 .483.45.613.45 1.239-.001.259-.103.519-.32.765-.31.297-.748.513-2.042.513h-3.142c-.364 0-.465-.154-.313-.587.468-1.341 1.109-2.92 1.241-3.587.176-.876-.203-1.687-1.315-1.687-1.749 0-2.89 1.524-4.426 4.42h-.089s1.115-2.606 1.115-3.464c0-.61-.367-.946-1.026-.946-1.009 0-2.041 1.05-2.486 1.63l.31.302c.203-.255.51-.557.737-.733.402-.312.808-.263.687.407-.155.866-1.328 3.959-1.961 5.535h1.827c1.875-3.756 3.251-6.174 4.345-6.174.317 0 .483.196.483.53 0 .675-.985 2.959-1.389 4.312-.238.8-.183 1.332.52 1.332h3.498c1.451 0 2.618-.677 3.122-1.04 1.003-.68 1.635-1.614 1.635-2.433M10.751 24.923v-2.138H2.058v14.48h2.448V30.94h5.657v-2.143H4.506v-3.874zm71.256-.185c-1.474-1.462-3.291-2.302-5.748-2.302-4.258 0-7.677 3.079-7.676 7.66-.001 4.576 3.074 7.48 7.453 7.48h.014c4.075 0 7.1-2.548 7.115-6.755v-.448h-7.093v2.06h4.397c-.473 2.002-2.291 2.938-4.271 2.938-3.055 0-5.025-2.035-5.028-5.347.008-3.065 2.025-5.4 4.976-5.405 2.104 0 3.426.977 4.223 1.776l1.638-1.657zM4.49 51.483v-4.486h2.005c2.614 0 2.919 1.203 2.919 2.105 0 .888-.377 2.381-2.901 2.381H4.49zm3.519 1.851s-.018-.018.112-.034c2.109-.247 3.73-1.928 3.73-4.252 0-2.538-1.893-4.18-4.818-4.18H2.058v14.535H4.49v-6.019h.592l4.895 6.02h3.09l-5.06-6.07zm9.314-8.445v14.533h9.205v-2.114h-6.68v-4.337h5.546v-2.108h-5.546v-3.866h6.21v-2.108zm13.937-.022v14.535h8.865v-2.094h-6.343v-12.44zm24.952 0v2.13h4.494v12.407h2.438V46.995h4.49v-2.13zM71.44 59.402h2.529V44.866H71.44zm35.288-5.305l-9.756-9.776v15.082h2.43v-9.167c.423.418 9.757 9.764 9.757 9.764V44.867h-2.431v9.23zm11.854-3.111c-1.794-.892-2.6-1.555-2.6-2.6 0-1.58 1.623-1.775 2.107-1.775 1.029 0 1.988.344 2.834 1.133l1.234-1.761c-1.366-1.073-2.622-1.393-4.068-1.393-2.648 0-4.5 1.61-4.5 3.924 0 2.215 1.455 3.317 3.917 4.575 1.699.867 2.557 1.632 2.557 2.654 0 1.142-.993 1.819-2.301 1.819-1.38 0-2.47-.465-3.567-1.488l-1.375 1.721c1.582 1.46 3.24 1.87 4.763 1.87 3.286 0 4.942-1.864 4.942-4.14 0-2.331-1.765-3.454-3.943-4.54M12.08 11.201c-1.172 1.342-2.672 2.016-4.33 2.016-2.959 0-5.17-2.004-5.17-5.403 0-3.105 2.076-5.258 4.862-5.258 1.55 0 2.882.51 4.066 1.695l1.618-1.64C11.686 1.083 9.828.363 7.47.363 3.244.363 0 3.586 0 7.884c0 4.511 3.088 7.523 7.433 7.523 2.561 0 4.584-.862 6.046-2.523l-1.399-1.683zm66.172.03c-1.172 1.341-2.547 1.975-4.422 1.975-3.084 0-5.17-2.004-5.17-5.402 0-3.104 2.084-5.267 4.87-5.267 1.55 0 2.883.51 4.066 1.695l1.6-1.619c-1.39-1.536-3.287-2.25-5.645-2.25-4.343 0-7.472 3.223-7.472 7.521 0 4.511 3 7.523 7.435 7.523 2.677 0 4.676-.822 6.137-2.483l-1.4-1.693zm-38.644 4.05c3.432 0 5.411-1.862 5.973-4.36.11-.496.165-1.217.165-1.834V.548H43.31v8.468c0 2.721-1.342 4.075-3.68 4.075-2.41 0-3.854-1.398-3.854-4.075V.548H33.34v8.54c0 .642.057 1.338.17 1.833.573 2.498 2.598 4.36 6.1 4.36m13.05-9.512c.425.419 9.83 9.91 9.83 9.91V.548h-2.372v9.365L50.294 0v15.082h2.366V5.769zm30.062 9.313h2.525V.548h-2.525zM90.25.548V15.08h8.942v-2.095h-6.41V.548zM22.66 2.403c-2.794 0-5.06 2.216-5.06 5.466s2.154 5.467 5.06 5.467c2.904 0 5.056-2.217 5.056-5.467 0-3.25-2.264-5.466-5.057-5.466m-7.613 5.464C15.042 3.503 18.316.25 22.66.25c4.344 0 7.614 3.254 7.613 7.618.001 4.362-3.136 7.617-7.613 7.617-4.478 0-7.617-3.255-7.613-7.617m5.94 16.692c-2.793 0-5.057 2.216-5.057 5.467 0 3.25 2.152 5.467 5.057 5.467 2.906 0 5.057-2.217 5.057-5.467 0-3.251-2.263-5.467-5.057-5.467m-7.613 5.465c-.005-4.365 3.269-7.62 7.613-7.62 4.345 0 7.616 3.255 7.614 7.62.002 4.363-3.137 7.617-7.614 7.617s-7.618-3.254-7.613-7.617m36.748.788h5.546v-2.108h-5.546v-3.866h6.208v-2.108h-8.734v14.534h9.205v-2.114h-6.679zm11.533 6.452h2.525V22.73h-2.525zm-26.489-7.92v-4.487h2.004c2.613 0 2.919 1.203 2.919 2.107 0 .887-.378 2.38-2.901 2.38h-2.022zm3.519 1.85s-.019-.017.111-.033c2.108-.247 3.73-1.928 3.73-4.252 0-2.538-1.894-4.182-4.818-4.182h-4.975v14.537h2.433v-6.018h.592l4.895 6.018h3.09l-5.058-6.07zm3.449 28.204h2.541l1.416-3.376h5.558l1.393 3.376h2.682l-6.774-15.49-6.816 15.49zm6.732-10.073l1.89 4.542h-3.789l1.9-4.542zm36.612-2.6c-2.792 0-5.056 2.216-5.056 5.466 0 3.251 2.153 5.468 5.056 5.468 2.907 0 5.06-2.217 5.06-5.468 0-3.25-2.264-5.466-5.06-5.466m-7.613 5.464c-.004-4.365 3.27-7.617 7.614-7.617 4.344 0 7.617 3.252 7.614 7.617.002 4.362-3.138 7.618-7.615 7.618s-7.617-3.256-7.613-7.618m11.558-24.238c.424.419 9.829 9.909 9.829 9.909V22.73h-2.37v9.366l-9.823-9.913v15.082h2.364v-9.313z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </a> </div> <div class="main-header__corporate"> <ul class="main-header__corporate-list"> <li class="main-header__corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://foreignaffairs.com" target="_blank" class="main-header__corporate-link main-header__corporate-link--fa" rel="noopener"> Foreign Affairs </a> </li> <li class="main-header__corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://education.cfr.org/" target="_blank" class="main-header__corporate-link" rel="noopener"> CFR Education </a> </li> <li class="main-header__corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank" class="main-header__corporate-link main-header__corporate-link-- js-sailthru-newsletter" rel="noopener"> Newsletters </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="main-header__controls"> <ul class="main-header__controls-list"> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--initiatives"> <div class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-toggle"> <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="main-header__initiatives-grid-icon icon-grid"> <rect x="1" y="1" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="1" y="8" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="1" y="15" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="8" y="1" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="8" y="8" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="8" y="15" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="15" y="1" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="15" y="8" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> <rect x="15" y="15" width="4" height="4" rx="2" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <div class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-title">Related Sites</div> <ul class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-list"> <li class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-list-item"> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils" target="_blank" class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-coc-icon.png" loading="lazy" alt="Council of Councils" class="lazyload main-header__initiatives-dropdown-icon" /> Council of Councils </a> </li> <li class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-list-item"> <a href="https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org" target="_blank" class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-tgh-icon.png" loading="lazy" alt="Think Global Health" class="lazyload main-header__initiatives-dropdown-icon" /> Think Global Health </a> </li> <li class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-list-item"> <a href="https://cfrorg.store" target="_blank" class="main-header__initiatives-dropdown-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-store.png" loading="lazy" alt="Online Store" class="lazyload main-header__initiatives-dropdown-icon" /> Online Store </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--user"> <a href="/member/login" class="main-header__controls-link"> <svg viewBox="0 0 22 22" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="main-header__controls-icon-user icon-user-circle-outlined" fill="none"> <path class="icon-stroke" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.85" d="M11 21c5.523 0 10-4.477 10-10S16.523 1 11 1 1 5.477 1 11s4.477 10 10 10z"/> <path class="icon-stroke" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.85" d="M11 12.25a3.25 3.25 0 100-6.5 3.25 3.25 0 000 6.5zM5.468 19.153v-1.6A2.553 2.553 0 018.021 15h5.958a2.553 2.553 0 012.553 2.553v1.702"/> </svg> </a> </li> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--search-cta"> <button type="submit" class="main-header__search-cta"> <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="main-header__search-icon icon-search" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Search</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M10 18a8 8 0 1 0 0-16 8 8 0 0 0 0 16zm0-2a6 6 0 1 1 0-12 6 6 0 0 1 0 12z"/> <path d="M14.293 15.707l7 7 1.414-1.414-7-7z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </li> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--menu"> <div class="main-header__menu-hotspot"> <div class="main-header__menu-btn"> <span class="main-header__menu-btn-bar"></span> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--search"> <div class="main-header__search-inline"> <form action="/search" autocomplete="off" class="main-header__search-inline-form"> <input type="search" name="keyword" placeholder="What are you searching for?" class="main-header__search-inline-input main-header__autocomplete" /> <button type="submit" class="main-header__search-inline-cta"> <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="main-header__search-inline-icon icon-search" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Search</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M10 18a8 8 0 1 0 0-16 8 8 0 0 0 0 16zm0-2a6 6 0 1 1 0-12 6 6 0 0 1 0 12z"/> <path d="M14.293 15.707l7 7 1.414-1.414-7-7z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </form> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav"> <div class="main-header__nav-container"> <ul class="main-header__nav-list main-header__nav--with-featured"> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--featured"> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/experts" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Experts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--featured"> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/election2024" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Transition 2025</a> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/topics" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Topics</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/energy-and-environment/climate-change" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Climate Change </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/backgrounder/paris-global-climate-change-agreements " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2020/10/climate.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Introduction Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland and <a href="/bio/clara-fong" class="card-article__authors-link">Clara Fong</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 21, 2025</span> <a href="/programs/renewing-america" class="card-article__series"> Renewing America </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/defense-and-security" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Defense & Security</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/diplomacy-and-international-institutions" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Diplomacy & International Institutions</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/economics" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Economics</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/energy-and-environment" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Energy & Environment</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/health" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Health</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/human-rights" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Human Rights</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/politics-and-government" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Politics & Government</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/social-issues" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Social Issues</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/regions" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Regions</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/asia/myanmar" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Myanmar </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Myanmar’s Troubled History</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2021/02/myanmarbgr.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Introduction Throughout its decades of independence, Myanmar has struggled with military rule, civil war, poor governance, and widespread poverty. A military coup in February 2021 dashed hopes for…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland</span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 31, 2022</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/americas" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Americas</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/asia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Asia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/europe-and-eurasia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Europe & Eurasia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/global-commons" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Global Commons</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/middle-east-and-north-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Middle East & North Africa</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/oceania" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Oceania</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/sub-saharan-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Sub-Saharan Africa</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/explainers" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Explainers</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/health" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Health </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/article/how-new-tobacco-control-laws-could-help-close-racial-gap-us-cancer " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">How Tobacco Laws Could Help Close the Racial Gap on Cancer</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2023/01/GettyImages-1409152899_Resized_0.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">During the 2020 presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised that his administration would make a “historic effort” to reduce long-running racial inequities in health. Tobacco use—the leading cause of p…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Interactive</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Olivia Angelino, <a href="/expert/thomas-j-bollyky" class="card-article__authors-link">Thomas J. Bollyky</a>, Elle Ruggiero and Isabella Turilli</span> <span class="card-article__date"> February 1, 2023</span> <a href="/programs/global-health-program" class="card-article__series"> Global Health Program </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/backgrounders" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Backgrounders</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/inbriefs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">In Briefs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/podcasts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Podcasts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/videos" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Videos</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/timelines" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Timelines</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/special-projects" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Special Projects</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/infoguides" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">InfoGuides</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/research-analysis" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Research & Analysis</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article card-article-book-report card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/global-commons/space" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Space </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/task-force-report/securing-space " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Securing Space: A Plan for U.S. Action</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <picture> <source media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/image/2025/02/CFR_TFR82_Space_FrontCover_2025-02-04.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 1279px) and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/image/2025/02/CFR_TFR82_Space_FrontCover_2025-02-04.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 1023px) and (min-width: 750px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/image/2025/02/CFR_TFR82_Space_FrontCover_2025-02-04.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 749px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/image/2025/02/CFR_TFR82_Space_FrontCover_2025-02-04.jpg.webp 1x"/> <img width="169" height="253" alt="" loading="lazy" class="lazyload" data-src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/image/2025/02/CFR_TFR82_Space_FrontCover_2025-02-04.jpg.webp" /> </picture> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Executive Summary It is impossible to overstate the importance of space to the United States. For Americans, modern life depends on information from the thousands of satellites orbiting the globe,…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Task Force Report</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Nina M. Armagno, Jane Harman, <a href="/expert/esther-brimmer" class="card-article__authors-link">Esther Brimmer</a> and <a href="/bio/anya-schmemann" class="card-article__authors-link">Anya Schmemann</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> February 11, 2025</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/experts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Experts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/programs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Centers & Programs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/publications" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Books & Reports</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/blog" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Blogs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/task-force-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Task Force Program</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/fellowships" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Fellowships</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/outreach" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Communities</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article event card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/oil-and-petroleum-products" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Oil and Petroleum Products </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/event/academic-webinar-geopolitics-oil " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Academic Webinar: The Geopolitics of Oil</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <span class="card-article__icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 15 15" class="icon icon-play" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Play</title> <path d="M0 15V0l15 7.5z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </span> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_xl/public/image/2023/04/cms%20Saudi%20Arabia%20oil%20refinery%20by%20Ahmed%20Jadallah%20Reuters.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Webinar</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> with Carolyn Kissane and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/bio/irina-faskianos" class="card-article__authors-link">Irina A. Faskianos</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> April 12, 2023</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/membership" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Members</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/media" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Media</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/congressional-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Congress</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/academic/cfr-academic" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Students and Educators</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/state-and-local" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">State & Local Officials</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/outreach/religion-and-foreign-policy-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Religion Leaders</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/localjournalists" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Local Journalists</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/event" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Events</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article event card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/artificial-intelligence-ai" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Artificial Intelligence (AI) </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/event/what-could-possibly-go-right-our-ai-future-conversation-reid-hoffman " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Malcolm and Carolyn Wiener Annual Lecture on Science and Technology: A Conversation With Reid Hoffman (255965)</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <span class="card-article__icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 15 15" class="icon icon-play" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Play</title> <path d="M0 15V0l15 7.5z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </span> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_xl/public/image/2025/02/reid%20hoffman.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Tech leader Reid Hoffman shares his insider’s perspective on an AI-powered future and its transformative potential to improve lives and create positive change. The Malcolm and Carolyn Wiener Annu…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Virtual Event</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> with Reid Hoffman and Deven J. Parekh</span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 30, 2025</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/event-series" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Lectureship Series</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/conference-call-series" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Webinars & Conference Calls</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/meeting-types/symposia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Symposia</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown main-header__nav-list-item--initiatives"> <a href="#" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Related Sites</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu main-header__nav-dropdown-menu--without-featured"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils" target="_blank" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-coc-icon.png" loading="lazy" alt="Council of Councils" class="lazyload main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-icon" /> Council of Councils </a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org" target="_blank" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-tgh-icon.png" loading="lazy" alt="Think Global Health" class="lazyload main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-icon" /> Think Global Health </a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="https://cfrorg.store" target="_blank" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> <img data-src="/themes/custom/cfr_theme/src/assets/images/cfr-store.png" loading="lazy" alt="Online Store" class="lazyload main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-icon" /> Online Store </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown main-header__nav-list-item--more"> <a href="#" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">More</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu main-header__nav-dropdown-menu--without-featured"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/research-analysis" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> Research & Analysis </a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/experts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Experts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/programs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Centers & Programs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/publications" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Books & Reports</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/blog" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Blogs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/task-force-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Task Force Program</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/fellowships" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Fellowships</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/outreach" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> Communities </a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/membership" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Members</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/media" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Media</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/congressional-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Congress</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/academic/cfr-academic" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Students and Educators</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/state-and-local" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">State & Local Officials</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/outreach/religion-and-foreign-policy-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Religion Leaders</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/localjournalists" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Local Journalists</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/event" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link"> Events </a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/event-series" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Lectureship Series</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/conference-call-series" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Webinars & Conference Calls</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/meeting-types/symposia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Symposia</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> </ul> <div class="main-header__nav-corporate"> <ul class="main-header__nav-corporate-list"> <li class="main-header__nav-corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="main-header__nav-corporate-link main-header__nav-corporate-link-- js-sailthru-newsletter"> Newsletters </a> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://education.cfr.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="main-header__nav-corporate-link"> CFR Education </a> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-corporate-list-item"> <a href="https://foreignaffairs.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="main-header__nav-corporate-link main-header__nav-corporate-link--fa"> Foreign Affairs </a> </li> <li class="main-header__controls-list-item main-header__controls-list-item--user"> <a href="/member/login" class="main-header__controls-link"> <svg viewBox="0 0 22 22" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="main-header__controls-icon-user icon-user-circle-outlined" fill="none"> <path class="icon-stroke" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.85" d="M11 21c5.523 0 10-4.477 10-10S16.523 1 11 1 1 5.477 1 11s4.477 10 10 10z"/> <path class="icon-stroke" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.85" d="M11 12.25a3.25 3.25 0 100-6.5 3.25 3.25 0 000 6.5zM5.468 19.153v-1.6A2.553 2.553 0 018.021 15h5.958a2.553 2.553 0 012.553 2.553v1.702"/> </svg> </a> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-corporate-list-item main-header__nav-corporate-list-item--essay-member"> <a href="/member/login" class="main-header__nav-corporate-link"> Member Login </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header> </div> <div id="block-newsalert"> </div> </div> </header> <main role="main"> <a id="main-content" tabindex="-1"></a> <div class="layout-content"> <div id="block-cfr-theme-messages"> </div> <div class="slim-nav slim-nav__wrapper slim-nav__wrapper__logged-out"> <div class="slim-nav__container slim-nav__container__article"> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__logo"> <a href="/"> <svg viewBox="0 0 24 31" class="icon icon-logo-monogram" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Logo</title> <path d="M19.7 1.268C19.7.544 19.188 0 18.34 0c-1.908 0-3.523 2.049-4.418 3.55-1.471 2.463-2.456 6.02-3.235 9.78-.116.56-.545 2.667-.545 2.667H8.254l-.123.652h1.896c-.398 2.261-1.202 6.353-1.711 8.603-.47 2.075-1.063 4.396-2.657 4.988.185-.215.262-.586.262-.83-.001-.602-.497-1.107-1.202-1.107-.867 0-1.367.622-1.373 1.31-.005.739.534 1.298 1.537 1.298 1.97 0 4.832-2.082 6.337-9.018.328-1.516 1.039-5.244 1.039-5.244h1.96l.121-.652h-1.958s.717-3.92 1.43-7.123c.91-4.092 1.932-7.164 3.51-8.11a1.294 1.294 0 0 0-.225.709c0 .711.492 1.203 1.23 1.2.734-.003 1.374-.544 1.374-1.405zm4.178 11.912c0-.519-.368-1.189-1.314-1.189-1.72 0-2.84 2.174-3.33 3.214.165-.741.269-1.368.269-1.853 0-.82-.444-1.281-1.136-1.281-1.588 0-2.766 2.214-2.926 2.541l.4.208c.46-.848.965-1.414 1.356-1.414.248 0 .403.209.333.808-.105.918-.846 3.958-1.383 6.14h1.922s.325-1.197.678-2.385c.737-2.473 1.754-4.278 2.581-4.879a1.22 1.22 0 0 0-.04.338c.004.57.398 1.15 1.193 1.15.9 0 1.397-.678 1.397-1.398zm-18.995.668c0 .63.459 1.096 1.193 1.096.76 0 1.407-.587 1.407-1.422 0-.898-.763-1.572-2.28-1.572C2.277 11.95 0 14.44 0 17.308c0 1.983 1.247 3.261 3.256 3.261 2.21 0 3.359-1.482 3.864-2.243l-.401-.237c-.26.39-1.253 1.641-2.65 1.641-1.244 0-1.887-.905-1.887-2.48 0-2.637 1.463-4.78 3.078-4.78.282 0 .523.053.647.122-.626.147-1.024.653-1.024 1.256z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </a> </div> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__titles-container slim-nav__titles-container__article"> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__titles-container__section-title"></div> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__titles-container__article-title"><span class="slim-nav__titles-container__article-title__text">The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?</span></div> </div> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__share"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--collapsed share-kit--icon-color-brown share-kit--bg-color-beige share-kit--theme-none" data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="" data-share-description="" data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="" data-share-type="" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M16 8.049c0-4.446-3.582-8.05-8-8.05C3.58 0-.002 3.603-.002 8.05c0 4.017 2.926 7.347 6.75 7.951v-5.625h-2.03V8.05H6.75V6.275c0-2.017 1.195-3.131 3.022-3.131.876 0 1.791.157 1.791.157v1.98h-1.009c-.993 0-1.303.621-1.303 1.258v1.51h2.218l-.354 2.326H9.25V16c3.824-.604 6.75-3.934 6.75-7.951z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 1350 1377" class="icon icon-twitter" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M714.163 519.284L1160.89 0H1055.03L667.137 450.887L357.328 0H0L468.492 681.821L0 1226.37H105.866L515.491 750.218L842.672 1226.37H1200L714.137 519.284H714.163ZM569.165 687.828L521.697 619.934L144.011 79.6944H306.615L611.412 515.685L658.88 583.579L1055.08 1150.3H892.476L569.165 687.854V687.828Z" fill="none" class="icon-fill" /> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-linkedin" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M0 1.146C0 .513.526 0 1.175 0h13.65C15.474 0 16 .513 16 1.146v13.708c0 .633-.526 1.146-1.175 1.146H1.175C.526 16 0 15.487 0 14.854V1.146zm4.943 12.248V6.169H2.542v7.225h2.401zm-1.2-8.212c.837 0 1.358-.554 1.358-1.248-.015-.709-.52-1.248-1.342-1.248-.822 0-1.359.54-1.359 1.248 0 .694.521 1.248 1.327 1.248h.016zm4.908 8.212V9.359c0-.216.016-.432.08-.586.173-.431.568-.878 1.232-.878.869 0 1.216.662 1.216 1.634v3.865h2.401V9.25c0-2.22-1.184-3.252-2.764-3.252-1.274 0-1.845.7-2.165 1.193v.025h-.016a5.54 5.54 0 0 1 .016-.025V6.169h-2.4c.03.678 0 7.225 0 7.225h2.4z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__e-mail-filled" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 23 14" class="icon icon-e-mail-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Email</title> <path d="M.915 0l10.258 7.808L21.673 0H.915zm10.258 8.804L0 .297V14h22.615V.297L11.173 8.804z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </button> </div> <button type="button" class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__collapse-btn"> <svg viewBox="0 0 22 24" class="icon icon-share" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Share</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M8.292 2.255L2.444 8.037V6.47l5.848 5.782A1.103 1.103 0 1 1 6.74 13.82L.893 8.037a1.103 1.103 0 0 1 0-1.568L6.741.686a1.103 1.103 0 1 1 1.55 1.569z"/> <path d="M19.485 22.766c0-8.01-6.783-14.59-14.988-14.59H1.899a1.103 1.103 0 0 1 0-2.206h2.598c9.409 0 17.194 7.553 17.194 16.796a1.103 1.103 0 1 1-2.206 0z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div class="slim-nav__cell slim-nav__search search__article "> <form action="/search" autocomplete="off" class="main-header__search-inline-form"> <input type="search" name="keyword" placeholder="What are you searching for?" class="main-header__search-inline-input main-header__autocomplete slim-nav__search-inline-input" /> <button type="submit" class="main-header__search-slim-nav"> <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="icon icon-search" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Search</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M10 18a8 8 0 1 0 0-16 8 8 0 0 0 0 16zm0-2a6 6 0 1 1 0-12 6 6 0 0 1 0 12z"/> <path d="M14.293 15.707l7 7 1.414-1.414-7-7z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </form> </div> </div> <div class="progress-container"> <div id="progressBar" class="progress-bar"></div> </div> </div><article class="cfr-transported-content main-wrapper right-rail-below article--post left-rail show-right-rail" data-nid="249970"> <div> <header class="article-header article-header--landscape-image article-header--without-btn article-header--without-isbn "> <div class="article-header__series-wrapper"> <section class="series-tag"> from <a href="/blog/asia-unbound" class="series-tag__link"> Asia Unbound</a>, <a href="/programs/asia-program" class="series-tag__link"> Asia Program</a>, and <a href="/programs/diamonstein-spielvogel-project-future-democracy" class="series-tag__link"> Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy</a> </section> </div> <div class="article-header__main-wrapper"> <div class="article-header__main-section"> <section class="article-header__section-top"> <div class="article-header__series-wrapper article-header__series-wrapper--book-report"> <section class="series-tag"> from <a href="/blog/asia-unbound" class="series-tag__link"> Asia Unbound</a>, <a href="/programs/asia-program" class="series-tag__link"> Asia Program</a>, and <a href="/programs/diamonstein-spielvogel-project-future-democracy" class="series-tag__link"> Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy</a> </section> </div> <h1 class="article-header__title">The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?</h1> <figure class="article-header__image for-tablet-down"> <div class="article-header__image-picture"> <img src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/slide_3_2/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.webp" alt="U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks after viewing the "Burma's Path To Genocide" exhibit at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., on March 21, 2022." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks after viewing the "Burma's Path To Genocide" exhibit at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., on March 21, 2022. <span class="author">Kevin Lamarque/Pool via Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> <p class="article-header__description">Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse. </p> <p class="article-header__byline"> <span class="article-header__metadata-type article-header__metadata-type--with-definition" > Post </span><span class="article-header__byline__by">by</span> <a href="/expert/joshua-kurlantzick" class="article-header__link">Joshua Kurlantzick</a>, Author </p> <p class="article-header__date-ttr"> <span>December 4, 2023 4:19 pm (EST)</span> </p> </section> <section class="article-header__section-bottom"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--icon-color-coral share-kit--bg-color-white " data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?" data-share-description="Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse. " data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"Joshua","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kurlantzick"}]" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M16 8.049c0-4.446-3.582-8.05-8-8.05C3.58 0-.002 3.603-.002 8.05c0 4.017 2.926 7.347 6.75 7.951v-5.625h-2.03V8.05H6.75V6.275c0-2.017 1.195-3.131 3.022-3.131.876 0 1.791.157 1.791.157v1.98h-1.009c-.993 0-1.303.621-1.303 1.258v1.51h2.218l-.354 2.326H9.25V16c3.824-.604 6.75-3.934 6.75-7.951z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)" data-summary="CFR 140 character message"> <svg viewBox="0 0 1350 1377" class="icon icon-twitter" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M714.163 519.284L1160.89 0H1055.03L667.137 450.887L357.328 0H0L468.492 681.821L0 1226.37H105.866L515.491 750.218L842.672 1226.37H1200L714.137 519.284H714.163ZM569.165 687.828L521.697 619.934L144.011 79.6944H306.615L611.412 515.685L658.88 583.579L1055.08 1150.3H892.476L569.165 687.854V687.828Z" fill="none" class="icon-fill" /> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-linkedin" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M0 1.146C0 .513.526 0 1.175 0h13.65C15.474 0 16 .513 16 1.146v13.708c0 .633-.526 1.146-1.175 1.146H1.175C.526 16 0 15.487 0 14.854V1.146zm4.943 12.248V6.169H2.542v7.225h2.401zm-1.2-8.212c.837 0 1.358-.554 1.358-1.248-.015-.709-.52-1.248-1.342-1.248-.822 0-1.359.54-1.359 1.248 0 .694.521 1.248 1.327 1.248h.016zm4.908 8.212V9.359c0-.216.016-.432.08-.586.173-.431.568-.878 1.232-.878.869 0 1.216.662 1.216 1.634v3.865h2.401V9.25c0-2.22-1.184-3.252-2.764-3.252-1.274 0-1.845.7-2.165 1.193v.025h-.016a5.54 5.54 0 0 1 .016-.025V6.169h-2.4c.03.678 0 7.225 0 7.225h2.4z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__email" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 23 14" class="icon icon-e-mail-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Email</title> <path d="M.915 0l10.258 7.808L21.673 0H.915zm10.258 8.804L0 .297V14h22.615V.297L11.173 8.804z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__print" onclick="CFR.Share.print(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 17 17" class="icon icon-print-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Print</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M13.985 4.973V2.92h-2.911V.212a.21.21 0 0 0-.21-.21H3.142a.21.21 0 0 0-.21.21v4.971h10.843a.21.21 0 0 0 .21-.21m2.923 1.062a.202.202 0 0 0-.202-.202H.202A.201.201 0 0 0 0 6.035l.021 7.695c0 .111.09.202.202.202h2.085v-4.97c0-.47.382-.853.852-.853h10.63c.47 0 .851.382.851.852v4.971h2.086a.203.203 0 0 0 .202-.202l-.02-7.695z"/> <path d="M10.774 11.66H6.176a.326.326 0 0 1 0-.65h4.598a.324.324 0 1 1 0 .65m0 2.921H6.176a.326.326 0 0 1 0-.65h4.598a.324.324 0 1 1 0 .65M13.79 8.76H3.16a.201.201 0 0 0-.201.202v7.67c0 .11.09.201.202.201H13.79a.203.203 0 0 0 .202-.202v-7.67a.202.202 0 0 0-.202-.202m.195-6.469h-2.08a.21.21 0 0 1-.21-.21V0l2.29 2.29z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div class="button-container button-container--with-breakpoints button-container--color-transparent button-container--size-regular button-container--type-multi "> <button class="button-multiple-list bck-none button-container__btn button-share" data-id-button-dropdown="buttons-share"> Share </button> <div class="button-container__dropdown button-container__dropdown-share"> <div id="buttons-share" class="button-container__dropdown-link-row"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--button-view share-kit--icon-color-coral" data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare?" data-share-description="Myanmar’s military is losing its grip on power—the United States and its partners should prepare for potential state collapse. " data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.JPG" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"Joshua","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kurlantzick"}]"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> Facebook </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)" data-summary="CFR 140 character message"> X </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> LinkedIn </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__email" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> Email </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <figure class="article-header__image "> <div class="article-header__image-picture"> <img src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/slide_3_2/public/image/2023/12/Blinken%20Burma.webp" alt="U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks after viewing the "Burma's Path To Genocide" exhibit at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., on March 21, 2022." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks after viewing the "Burma's Path To Genocide" exhibit at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., on March 21, 2022. <span class="author">Kevin Lamarque/Pool via Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </header> <dl class="article-header-glossary-def"> <dt class="article-header-glossary-def__term">Post</dt> <dd class="article-header-glossary-def__definition">Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. </dd> </dl> <div class="main-wrapper__article-body main-wrapper__article-body-explainer"> <aside class="right-rail"> </aside> <div class="highlight-to-share"> <div class="body-content"><body><p>As I <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/myanmar-army-could-actually-collapse-are-united-states-and-other-powers-ready-such-scenario" title="noted in a blog" target="_blank">noted in a blog</a> late last week, which appears to have sparked healthy debate,  “In recent weeks, the Myanmar armed forces, which already have suffered major losses of territory to ethnic minority armies and the People’s Defense Forces, primarily made up the majority Burman ethnic group, has faced some of its worst defeats. In northeastern Myanmar, in the crucial battleground of Shan State, the BBC <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67305690" title="reports" target="_blank">reports</a> that: ‘Three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, have overrun dozens of military posts, and captured border crossings and the roads carrying most of the overland trade with China. It is the most serious setback suffered by the junta since it seized power in February 2021. After two-and-half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with its disastrous coup, the military is looking weak and possibly beatable.’”</p> <p>The military is also short on cash, no longer able to rely on Russia for the planes it uses to<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/31/world/asia/myanmar-military.html" title=" bomb" target="_blank"> bomb</a> whole villages sadistically, faces defections, and split internally at higher levels. It now must try to defend several critical parts of the country, lacking enough men. The possibility of the combined ethnic armies, People’s Defense Forces (PDF), and the National Unity Government (NUG) moving further into central Myanmar and defeating the military, or the army just disintegrating, is the highest it has ever been since the February 2021 coup.</p><section class="more-on desktop-only "> <p class="more-on__title">More on:</p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/asia/myanmar" class="more-on__link">Myanmar</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/defense-and-security/wars-and-conflict" class="more-on__link">Wars and Conflict</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/americas/united-states" class="more-on__link">United States</a> </p> </section> <p>Yet many in the U.S. government and allied governments in Europe and Asia remain unprepared for a potential collapse and the possibly chaotic weeks after. (Thailand is a notable exception and has thought quite a lot about what might happen if the Tatmadaw collapses, and I imagine China has studied this possibility closely.) Even if one disdains the Tatmadaw and holds a positive view of the cooperation of the NUG, PDFs, and ethnic allies since the 2021 coup, a military collapse will lead to a precarious situation. The country faces significant food insecurity and massive numbers of internally displaced people, as well as a million Rohingya who have fled to Bangladesh. Myanmar’s economy is crushed: any new government will have to rebuild the country’s physical and electronic infrastructure and human capital. Economic reconstruction may require a major donor’s conference to raise funds, potentially from Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States, and other major donors. </p> <section class="desktop-only newsletter-form-article default-embed"> <div id="subscription-breaker" class="newsletter-tout "> <div class="newsletter-tout__content-wrapper"> <div class="newsletter-tout__form newsletter-tout__initial" id="b58d7c55-3af0-4fa9-8489-eee32edb2880"> <h3 class="newsletter-tout__title"> <div>Asia Unbound</div> </h3> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb"> <div><h4>CFR fellows and other experts assess the latest issues emerging in Asia today. <em>1-3 times weekly.</em></h4> </div> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__form-container email-signup-form__container"> <form class="asia-unbound-embedded-form newsletter-tout__form expertToutForm" data-newsletter-id="asia_unbound_embedded_form" autocomplete="off" data-drupal-selector="asia-unbound-embedded-form" action="/blog/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries" method="post" id="asia-unbound-embedded-form" accept-charset="UTF-8"> <div class="embedded__newsletter-email expert-tout__input-wrapper js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-subscribe" id="edit-subscribe--2"><input data-drupal-selector="edit-newsletter-name" type="hidden" name="newsletter_name" value="asia_unbound"> <div data-drupal-selector="edit-recaptcha" class="captcha captcha-type-challenge--recaptcha"> <div class="captcha__element"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-captcha-sid" type="hidden" name="captcha_sid" value="42814984"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-captcha-token" type="hidden" name="captcha_token" value="WxTE-xC5EvAubzpp1G0_xn_NlVYGjxN8Qqj_oZ3v09E"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-captcha-response" type="hidden" name="captcha_response" value="Google no captcha"> <div class="g-recaptcha" data-sitekey="6LdVm2YUAAAAALLTS2XVQD5O47VtNJIKQTsrqP9t" data-theme="light" data-type="image"></div><input data-drupal-selector="edit-captcha-cacheable" type="hidden" name="captcha_cacheable" value="1"> </div> </div> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-newsletter-id" type="hidden" name="newsletter_id" value="asia_unbound_embedded_form"> <div class="hidden"><div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textfield form-item-url js-form-item-url"> <label for="edit-url--2">Url</label> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-url" type="text" id="edit-url--2" name="url" value size="60" maxlength="128" class="form-text"> </div> </div><div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-email form-item-email-address js-form-item-email-address"> <label for="edit-email-address--2" class="js-form-required form-required">Email</label> <input class="embedded__newsletter-email-input expert-tout__email form-email required" placeholder="Email Address" data-drupal-selector="edit-email-address" type="email" id="edit-email-address--2" name="email_address" value size="60" maxlength="254" required="required" aria-required="true"> </div> <input class="embedded__newsletter-submitbtn expert-tout__submit button js-form-submit form-submit" data-drupal-selector="cfr-newsletter-signup-form-asia-unbound-embedded-form-submit" type="submit" id="cfr-newsletter-signup-form--asia-unbound-embedded-form--submit" name="op" value="Subscribe"> </div> <input autocomplete="off" data-drupal-selector="form-fopnbbolg0i3sto-dbwmqgdo3yza47dm1x1eqc5x9tc" type="hidden" name="form_build_id" value="form-FopNBbOlG0i3sTO-dBWmQgDo3YZa47DM1X1eQC5x9tc"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-asia-unbound-embedded-form" type="hidden" name="form_id" value="asia_unbound_embedded_form"> </form> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__viewall"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="View all newsletters >"> View all newsletters <span>></span> </a> </div> </div> <form class="embedded-form-2" data-drupal-selector="embedded-form-2" action="/blog/myanmar-military-collapsing-amidst-civil-war-how-should-united-states-and-other-countries" method="post" id="embedded-form-2" accept-charset="UTF-8"> <div class="newsletter-tout__signed-up__wrapper disabled"><div class="newsletter-tout__form" id="70cd4735-1686-4015-a796-423a2ae45907"><div class="newsletter-tout__signed-up__checkbox-container"><input class="form__checkbox form-checkbox" data-drupal-selector="st-eyesonasia" type="checkbox" id="ST_EyesOnAsia" name="ST_EyesOnAsia" value="1"> <div class="form__label-check"><svg viewBox="0 0 17 14" class="icon icon-check" data-st-var="ST_EyesOnAsia"><path fill="none" fill-rule="nonzero" stroke="none" stroke-width=".7" d="M5.503 10.095L1.587 6.237.282 7.523l5.221 5.144L16.692 1.645 15.387.359z" class="icon-fill icon-stroke" /></svg> </div> <h3 class="newsletter-tout__title newsletter-tout__recommended-title">Eyes on Asia</h3> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb newsletter-tout__recommended-blurb"><h4>Insights and analysis from CFR fellows on the latest developments across Asia. <em>Monthly.</em></h4> </div></div><div class="newsletter-tout__form" id="ef159ff3-b828-499e-9959-16ade06cdbe9"><div class="newsletter-tout__signed-up__checkbox-container"><input class="form__checkbox form-checkbox" data-drupal-selector="st-dailynewsbrief" type="checkbox" id="ST_DailyNewsBrief" name="ST_DailyNewsBrief" value="1"> <div class="form__label-check"><svg viewBox="0 0 17 14" class="icon icon-check" data-st-var="ST_DailyNewsBrief"><path fill="none" fill-rule="nonzero" stroke="none" stroke-width=".7" d="M5.503 10.095L1.587 6.237.282 7.523l5.221 5.144L16.692 1.645 15.387.359z" class="icon-fill icon-stroke" /></svg> </div> <h3 class="newsletter-tout__title newsletter-tout__recommended-title">Daily News Brief</h3> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb newsletter-tout__recommended-blurb"><h4>A summary of global news developments with CFR analysis delivered to your inbox each morning. <em>Weekdays.</em></h4> </div></div><div class="newsletter-tout__form" id="8dc32a15-5542-4df8-8e35-0f1308e60b6f"><div class="newsletter-tout__signed-up__checkbox-container"><input class="form__checkbox form-checkbox" data-drupal-selector="st-twtw" type="checkbox" id="ST_TWTW" name="ST_TWTW" value="1"> <div class="form__label-check"><svg viewBox="0 0 17 14" class="icon icon-check" data-st-var="ST_TWTW"><path fill="none" fill-rule="nonzero" stroke="none" stroke-width=".7" d="M5.503 10.095L1.587 6.237.282 7.523l5.221 5.144L16.692 1.645 15.387.359z" class="icon-fill icon-stroke" /></svg> </div> <h3 class="newsletter-tout__title newsletter-tout__recommended-title">The World This Week</h3> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb newsletter-tout__recommended-blurb"><h4>A weekly digest of the latest from CFR on the biggest foreign policy stories of the week, featuring briefs, opinions, and explainers. <em>Every Friday.</em></h4> </div></div><div class="newsletter-tout__legal">By entering your email and clicking subscribe, you're agreeing to receive announcements from CFR about our products and services, as well as invitations to CFR events. You are also agreeing to our <a href="https://www.cfr.org/privacy-policy" title="Privacy Policy" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/terms-use" title="Terms of Use" target="_blank">Terms of Use</a>.</div><div class="newsletter-tout__form-container email-signup-form__container js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-container" id="edit-container"><input class="embedded__newsletter-submitbtn button-container__btn button js-form-submit form-submit" id="post-signup-submit" data-drupal-selector="post-signup-submit" type="submit" name="op" value="Subscribe"> <div class="newsletter-tout__viewall"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="View all newsletters >">View all newsletters <span>></span></a> </div></div> </div><input autocomplete="off" data-drupal-selector="form-l521xmdwfy3iz7p8clqihmiowqnifaze5penmkc-l8s" type="hidden" name="form_build_id" value="form-L521XMdWFY3Iz7P8ClQIhmIOwqNiFAze5PENMKC-l8s"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-embedded-form-2" type="hidden" name="form_id" value="embedded-form-2"> </form> </div> </div> </section> <p>As Billy Ford of USIP has <a href="https://twitter.com/Billee4d/status/1731012848938267023" title="noted" target="_blank">noted</a>, the U.S. government thought out “day after” scenarios and planning for countries far less likely to experience regime collapse, like Syria and Venezuela, yet has not done so in a systematic way for Myanmar. Nor have other major European allies, Japan, or many critical Southeast Asian actors like Indonesia. </p> <p>For a start, the United States and key Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia need to give up the idea that the military is unbeatable—it is quickly showing that it is not. Making this choice would end any possible scenario planning that assumes some brokered transition in which the military makes a deal with the opposition and the army remains a major political player but promises to reduce its power slowly. This kind of brokered transition has been discussed widely among officials from many countries I have dealt with, but the opposition would never accept this. The military made a deal like this in the Thein Sein era from 2011 to 2016, and then when it felt challenges to its authority, it staged a coup and destroyed the country.</p> <p>Instead, actors with interests in Myanmar need to start planning for a day after the military collapses and the situation is economically, infrastructurally, financially, and politically unstable. No one can predict what will happen the day after the military collapses or how the most significant external power, China, will react. So, other actors cannot assume that the military has some future role in Myanmar other than as a smaller army under real civilian control. As I have noted, the day after planning should include how to help the Myanmar people quickly create a framework for a federal and democratic government. </p> <p>Also, the U.S. government and other governments friendly to the opposition should increase their assistance to the NUG and meet regularly with leading NUG members. In addition, that assistance, even if outlined as nonlethal (as it is in the U.S. Burma Act, which includes support for the opposition), should help the opposition as much as possible—not just small-scale capacity building, but items like satellite phones, drone jammers, and other similar items. </p><section class="more-on mobile-only "> <p class="more-on__title">More on:</p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/asia/myanmar" class="more-on__link">Myanmar</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/defense-and-security/wars-and-conflict" class="more-on__link">Wars and Conflict</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/americas/united-states" class="more-on__link">United States</a> </p> </section> </body></div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div class="chapters"> <div class="chapters__btn-toggle"> <svg viewBox="0 0 20 11" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-up-arrow"> <path d="M1 10l9.09-8.333L19.183 10" class="icon-stroke" fill="none"/> </svg> </div> <div class="chapters__nav"> </div> </div> </div> <div class="creative-commons"> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/" class="creative-commons__open-link" target="_blank"> <div class="creative-commons__icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-creative-commons"> <title>Creative Commons</title> <path d="M11.794 0c3.305 0 6.118 1.154 8.44 3.46a11.363 11.363 0 0 1 2.53 3.809 12.03 12.03 0 0 1 .866 4.546c0 1.618-.285 3.134-.854 4.547a10.847 10.847 0 0 1-2.521 3.745 12.142 12.142 0 0 1-3.925 2.616 11.762 11.762 0 0 1-4.536.907c-1.56 0-3.055-.298-4.483-.896a11.885 11.885 0 0 1-3.84-2.595 11.768 11.768 0 0 1-2.585-3.83A11.587 11.587 0 0 1 0 11.815c0-1.561.299-3.062.896-4.504a11.864 11.864 0 0 1 2.606-3.872C5.752 1.147 8.516 0 11.794 0zm.042 2.131c-2.7 0-4.972.943-6.815 2.827A10.165 10.165 0 0 0 2.88 8.134a9.306 9.306 0 0 0-.75 3.682c0 1.266.25 2.486.75 3.66a9.788 9.788 0 0 0 2.14 3.144 9.737 9.737 0 0 0 3.144 2.11 9.472 9.472 0 0 0 3.671.728 9.537 9.537 0 0 0 3.683-.738 10.205 10.205 0 0 0 3.217-2.13c1.842-1.801 2.763-4.059 2.763-6.774a9.72 9.72 0 0 0-.717-3.713 9.447 9.447 0 0 0-2.088-3.123c-1.9-1.9-4.185-2.849-6.858-2.849zm-.148 7.723l-1.583.823c-.169-.351-.376-.598-.622-.739-.246-.14-.475-.21-.686-.21-1.054 0-1.582.695-1.582 2.088 0 .633.133 1.139.4 1.519.268.38.662.57 1.182.57.69 0 1.175-.338 1.457-1.013l1.455.739a3.471 3.471 0 0 1-3.101 1.856c-1.055 0-1.907-.323-2.554-.97-.647-.647-.97-1.547-.97-2.7 0-1.126.327-2.019.981-2.68.654-.66 1.48-.992 2.48-.992 1.463 0 2.51.57 3.143 1.709zm5.254.823c-.169-.351-.377-.598-.623-.739a1.435 1.435 0 0 0-.706-.21c-1.055 0-1.583.695-1.583 2.088 0 .633.134 1.139.4 1.519.268.38.661.57 1.183.57.688 0 1.174-.338 1.455-1.013l1.477.739a3.627 3.627 0 0 1-1.308 1.36 3.41 3.41 0 0 1-1.793.496c-1.07 0-1.924-.323-2.563-.97-.641-.647-.96-1.547-.96-2.7 0-1.126.326-2.019.98-2.68.654-.66 1.48-.992 2.48-.992 1.462 0 2.504.57 3.122 1.709l-1.561.823z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </div> <div class="creative-commons__text"> Creative Commons: Some rights reserved. </div> </a> <div class="creative-commons__license"> <div class="creative-commons__license-triangle"> <div class="creative-commons__license-triangle-border"></div> <div class="creative-commons__license-triangle-fill"></div> </div> <div class="creative-commons__close-icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 25 25" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-close"> <title>Close</title> <path d="M10.417 12.5L0 22.917 2.083 25 12.5 14.583 22.917 25 25 22.917 14.583 12.5 25 2.083 22.917 0 12.5 10.417 2.083 0 0 2.083 10.417 12.5z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </div> <div class="creative-commons__license-info">This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) License.</div> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/" class="creative-commons__license-extlink" target="_blank">View License Detail</a> </div> </div> <div class="bottom-drawer glossary"> <div class="bottom-drawer__close-icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 25 25" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-close"> <title>Close</title> <path d="M10.417 12.5L0 22.917 2.083 25 12.5 14.583 22.917 25 25 22.917 14.583 12.5 25 2.083 22.917 0 12.5 10.417 2.083 0 0 2.083 10.417 12.5z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </div> <div class="bottom-drawer__content"> <dl class="glossary-def"> <dt class="glossary-def__term"></dt> <dd class="glossary-def__definition"></dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> </article> <div id="block-blogstransporter"> <section class="explore-more " data-transporter-nid="249970"> <div class="explore-more__content"> <h3 class="explore-more__header">Explore More</h3> <div class="explore-more__list-article"> <span class="explore-more__article explore-more__article--first explore-more__article--current"> <article class="main-wrapper" data-article-nid="249968" data-article-url="/blog/renditions-and-extrajudicial-assassinations-increasingly-becoming-norm-international-relations"> <p class="explore-more__publication-type"> Post </p> <h2 class="explore-more__transporter-cta"> <a href="/blog/renditions-and-extrajudicial-assassinations-increasingly-becoming-norm-international-relations" rel="bookmark"><span>Renditions and Extrajudicial Assassinations Increasingly Becoming the Norm in International Relations</span> </a> </h2> </article> </span> <span class="explore-more__article "> <article class="main-wrapper" data-article-nid="249313" data-article-url="/tracker/china-overseas-ports"> <p class="explore-more__publication-type"> Tracker </p> <h2 class="explore-more__transporter-cta"> <a href="/tracker/china-overseas-ports" rel="bookmark"><span>Tracking China’s Control of Overseas Ports</span> </a> </h2> </article> </span> <span class="explore-more__article "> <article class="main-wrapper" data-article-nid="246639" data-article-url="/backgrounder/how-us-asylum-process-works"> <p class="explore-more__publication-type"> Backgrounder </p> <h2 class="explore-more__transporter-cta"> <a href="/backgrounder/how-us-asylum-process-works" rel="bookmark"><span>How the U.S. Asylum Process Works</span> </a> </h2> </article> </span> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> </main> <div id="main-footer-anchor"></div> <footer class="main-footer"> <div class="main-footer__wrapper"> <a href="/" class="main-footer__logo-btn"> <svg viewBox="0 0 125 60" class="main-footer__logo-signature icon-logo-signature" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Council on Foreign Relations</title> <path d="M106.909 13.178c-.502.92-1.081 1.458-1.854 1.458-.713 0-1.01-.522-.975-1.458.062-1.772 1.163-4.833 2.824-4.833.6 0 .999.416.97 1.371-.026.912-.386 2.406-.965 3.462m-.055-5.377c-2.64 0-4.56 2.264-4.63 4.755-.04 1.428.743 2.647 2.703 2.647 3.06 0 4.676-2.7 4.73-4.714.053-1.57-.944-2.688-2.803-2.688m17.484 3.789c0-.612-.316-1.01-.782-1.01-.404 0-.679.3-.679.677 0 .483.45.613.45 1.239-.001.259-.103.519-.32.765-.31.297-.748.513-2.042.513h-3.142c-.364 0-.465-.154-.313-.587.468-1.341 1.109-2.92 1.241-3.587.176-.876-.203-1.687-1.315-1.687-1.749 0-2.89 1.524-4.426 4.42h-.089s1.115-2.606 1.115-3.464c0-.61-.367-.946-1.026-.946-1.009 0-2.041 1.05-2.486 1.63l.31.302c.203-.255.51-.557.737-.733.402-.312.808-.263.687.407-.155.866-1.328 3.959-1.961 5.535h1.827c1.875-3.756 3.251-6.174 4.345-6.174.317 0 .483.196.483.53 0 .675-.985 2.959-1.389 4.312-.238.8-.183 1.332.52 1.332h3.498c1.451 0 2.618-.677 3.122-1.04 1.003-.68 1.635-1.614 1.635-2.433M10.751 24.923v-2.138H2.058v14.48h2.448V30.94h5.657v-2.143H4.506v-3.874zm71.256-.185c-1.474-1.462-3.291-2.302-5.748-2.302-4.258 0-7.677 3.079-7.676 7.66-.001 4.576 3.074 7.48 7.453 7.48h.014c4.075 0 7.1-2.548 7.115-6.755v-.448h-7.093v2.06h4.397c-.473 2.002-2.291 2.938-4.271 2.938-3.055 0-5.025-2.035-5.028-5.347.008-3.065 2.025-5.4 4.976-5.405 2.104 0 3.426.977 4.223 1.776l1.638-1.657zM4.49 51.483v-4.486h2.005c2.614 0 2.919 1.203 2.919 2.105 0 .888-.377 2.381-2.901 2.381H4.49zm3.519 1.851s-.018-.018.112-.034c2.109-.247 3.73-1.928 3.73-4.252 0-2.538-1.893-4.18-4.818-4.18H2.058v14.535H4.49v-6.019h.592l4.895 6.02h3.09l-5.06-6.07zm9.314-8.445v14.533h9.205v-2.114h-6.68v-4.337h5.546v-2.108h-5.546v-3.866h6.21v-2.108zm13.937-.022v14.535h8.865v-2.094h-6.343v-12.44zm24.952 0v2.13h4.494v12.407h2.438V46.995h4.49v-2.13zM71.44 59.402h2.529V44.866H71.44zm35.288-5.305l-9.756-9.776v15.082h2.43v-9.167c.423.418 9.757 9.764 9.757 9.764V44.867h-2.431v9.23zm11.854-3.111c-1.794-.892-2.6-1.555-2.6-2.6 0-1.58 1.623-1.775 2.107-1.775 1.029 0 1.988.344 2.834 1.133l1.234-1.761c-1.366-1.073-2.622-1.393-4.068-1.393-2.648 0-4.5 1.61-4.5 3.924 0 2.215 1.455 3.317 3.917 4.575 1.699.867 2.557 1.632 2.557 2.654 0 1.142-.993 1.819-2.301 1.819-1.38 0-2.47-.465-3.567-1.488l-1.375 1.721c1.582 1.46 3.24 1.87 4.763 1.87 3.286 0 4.942-1.864 4.942-4.14 0-2.331-1.765-3.454-3.943-4.54M12.08 11.201c-1.172 1.342-2.672 2.016-4.33 2.016-2.959 0-5.17-2.004-5.17-5.403 0-3.105 2.076-5.258 4.862-5.258 1.55 0 2.882.51 4.066 1.695l1.618-1.64C11.686 1.083 9.828.363 7.47.363 3.244.363 0 3.586 0 7.884c0 4.511 3.088 7.523 7.433 7.523 2.561 0 4.584-.862 6.046-2.523l-1.399-1.683zm66.172.03c-1.172 1.341-2.547 1.975-4.422 1.975-3.084 0-5.17-2.004-5.17-5.402 0-3.104 2.084-5.267 4.87-5.267 1.55 0 2.883.51 4.066 1.695l1.6-1.619c-1.39-1.536-3.287-2.25-5.645-2.25-4.343 0-7.472 3.223-7.472 7.521 0 4.511 3 7.523 7.435 7.523 2.677 0 4.676-.822 6.137-2.483l-1.4-1.693zm-38.644 4.05c3.432 0 5.411-1.862 5.973-4.36.11-.496.165-1.217.165-1.834V.548H43.31v8.468c0 2.721-1.342 4.075-3.68 4.075-2.41 0-3.854-1.398-3.854-4.075V.548H33.34v8.54c0 .642.057 1.338.17 1.833.573 2.498 2.598 4.36 6.1 4.36m13.05-9.512c.425.419 9.83 9.91 9.83 9.91V.548h-2.372v9.365L50.294 0v15.082h2.366V5.769zm30.062 9.313h2.525V.548h-2.525zM90.25.548V15.08h8.942v-2.095h-6.41V.548zM22.66 2.403c-2.794 0-5.06 2.216-5.06 5.466s2.154 5.467 5.06 5.467c2.904 0 5.056-2.217 5.056-5.467 0-3.25-2.264-5.466-5.057-5.466m-7.613 5.464C15.042 3.503 18.316.25 22.66.25c4.344 0 7.614 3.254 7.613 7.618.001 4.362-3.136 7.617-7.613 7.617-4.478 0-7.617-3.255-7.613-7.617m5.94 16.692c-2.793 0-5.057 2.216-5.057 5.467 0 3.25 2.152 5.467 5.057 5.467 2.906 0 5.057-2.217 5.057-5.467 0-3.251-2.263-5.467-5.057-5.467m-7.613 5.465c-.005-4.365 3.269-7.62 7.613-7.62 4.345 0 7.616 3.255 7.614 7.62.002 4.363-3.137 7.617-7.614 7.617s-7.618-3.254-7.613-7.617m36.748.788h5.546v-2.108h-5.546v-3.866h6.208v-2.108h-8.734v14.534h9.205v-2.114h-6.679zm11.533 6.452h2.525V22.73h-2.525zm-26.489-7.92v-4.487h2.004c2.613 0 2.919 1.203 2.919 2.107 0 .887-.378 2.38-2.901 2.38h-2.022zm3.519 1.85s-.019-.017.111-.033c2.108-.247 3.73-1.928 3.73-4.252 0-2.538-1.894-4.182-4.818-4.182h-4.975v14.537h2.433v-6.018h.592l4.895 6.018h3.09l-5.058-6.07zm3.449 28.204h2.541l1.416-3.376h5.558l1.393 3.376h2.682l-6.774-15.49-6.816 15.49zm6.732-10.073l1.89 4.542h-3.789l1.9-4.542zm36.612-2.6c-2.792 0-5.056 2.216-5.056 5.466 0 3.251 2.153 5.468 5.056 5.468 2.907 0 5.06-2.217 5.06-5.468 0-3.25-2.264-5.466-5.06-5.466m-7.613 5.464c-.004-4.365 3.27-7.617 7.614-7.617 4.344 0 7.617 3.252 7.614 7.617.002 4.362-3.138 7.618-7.615 7.618s-7.617-3.256-7.613-7.618m11.558-24.238c.424.419 9.829 9.909 9.829 9.909V22.73h-2.37v9.366l-9.823-9.913v15.082h2.364v-9.313z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </a> <div class="main-footer__menu-wrapper"> <ul class="main-footer__menu"> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/about">About</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/member-programs">Member Programs</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/contact-us">Contact</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/support-cfr">Support</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/media">For Media</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank">Newsletters</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/membership">Membership</a> </li> <li class="main-footer__menu-item"> <a href="/career-opportunities">Careers</a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="main-footer__fineprint"> <div class="main-footer__fineprint__wrapper"> <span class="main-footer__fineprint-line">©2025 Council on Foreign Relations.</span> <span class="main-footer__fineprint-line">All rights reserved.</span> <span class="main-footer__fineprint-line"> <a href="/privacy-policy" class="main-footer__fineprint-link">Privacy Policy</a> and <a href="/terms-use" class="main-footer__fineprint-link">Terms of Use</a>. </span> </div> <div class="main-footer__share-kit-wrapper"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--icon-color-brown share-kit--bg-color-white share-kit--small share-kit--theme-none" data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="" data-share-description="" data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="" data-share-type="" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <a class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" href="https://www.facebook.com/councilonforeignrelations" target="_blank"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M16 8.049c0-4.446-3.582-8.05-8-8.05C3.58 0-.002 3.603-.002 8.05c0 4.017 2.926 7.347 6.75 7.951v-5.625h-2.03V8.05H6.75V6.275c0-2.017 1.195-3.131 3.022-3.131.876 0 1.791.157 1.791.157v1.98h-1.009c-.993 0-1.303.621-1.303 1.258v1.51h2.218l-.354 2.326H9.25V16c3.824-.604 6.75-3.934 6.75-7.951z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </a> <a class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" href="https://twitter.com/CFR_org" target="_blank"> <svg viewBox="0 0 1350 1377" class="icon icon-twitter" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M714.163 519.284L1160.89 0H1055.03L667.137 450.887L357.328 0H0L468.492 681.821L0 1226.37H105.866L515.491 750.218L842.672 1226.37H1200L714.137 519.284H714.163ZM569.165 687.828L521.697 619.934L144.011 79.6944H306.615L611.412 515.685L658.88 583.579L1055.08 1150.3H892.476L569.165 687.854V687.828Z" fill="none" class="icon-fill" /> </svg> </a> <a class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__youtube" href="https://www.youtube.com/user/cfr/featured" target="_blank"> <svg viewBox="0 0 16 16" class="icon icon-youtube" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M8.051 1.999h.089c.822.003 4.987.033 6.11.335a2.01 2.01 0 0 1 1.415 1.42c.101.38.172.883.22 1.402l.01.104.022.26.008.104c.065.914.073 1.77.074 1.957v.075c-.001.194-.01 1.108-.082 2.06l-.008.105-.009.104c-.05.572-.124 1.14-.235 1.558a2.007 2.007 0 0 1-1.415 1.42c-1.16.312-5.569.334-6.18.335h-.142c-.309 0-1.587-.006-2.927-.052l-.17-.006-.087-.004-.171-.007-.171-.007c-1.11-.049-2.167-.128-2.654-.26a2.007 2.007 0 0 1-1.415-1.419c-.111-.417-.185-.986-.235-1.558L.09 9.82l-.008-.104A31.4 31.4 0 0 1 0 7.68v-.123c.002-.215.01-.958.064-1.778l.007-.103.003-.052.008-.104.022-.26.01-.104c.048-.519.119-1.023.22-1.402a2.007 2.007 0 0 1 1.415-1.42c.487-.13 1.544-.21 2.654-.26l.17-.007.172-.006.086-.003.171-.007A99.788 99.788 0 0 1 7.858 2h.193zM6.4 5.209v4.818l4.157-2.408L6.4 5.209z" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </a> <a class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__instagram" href="https://www.instagram.com/cfr_org/" target="_blank"> <svg viewBox="0 0 16 16" class="icon icon-instagram" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M8 0C5.829 0 5.556.01 4.703.048 3.85.088 3.269.222 2.76.42a3.917 3.917 0 0 0-1.417.923A3.927 3.927 0 0 0 .42 2.76C.222 3.268.087 3.85.048 4.7.01 5.555 0 5.827 0 8.001c0 2.172.01 2.444.048 3.297.04.852.174 1.433.372 1.942.205.526.478.972.923 1.417.444.445.89.719 1.416.923.51.198 1.09.333 1.942.372C5.555 15.99 5.827 16 8 16s2.444-.01 3.298-.048c.851-.04 1.434-.174 1.943-.372a3.916 3.916 0 0 0 1.416-.923c.445-.445.718-.891.923-1.417.197-.509.332-1.09.372-1.942C15.99 10.445 16 10.173 16 8s-.01-2.445-.048-3.299c-.04-.851-.175-1.433-.372-1.941a3.926 3.926 0 0 0-.923-1.417A3.911 3.911 0 0 0 13.24.42c-.51-.198-1.092-.333-1.943-.372C10.443.01 10.172 0 7.998 0h.003zm-.717 1.442h.718c2.136 0 2.389.007 3.232.046.78.035 1.204.166 1.486.275.373.145.64.319.92.599.28.28.453.546.598.92.11.281.24.705.275 1.485.039.843.047 1.096.047 3.231s-.008 2.389-.047 3.232c-.035.78-.166 1.203-.275 1.485a2.47 2.47 0 0 1-.599.919c-.28.28-.546.453-.92.598-.28.11-.704.24-1.485.276-.843.038-1.096.047-3.232.047s-2.39-.009-3.233-.047c-.78-.036-1.203-.166-1.485-.276a2.478 2.478 0 0 1-.92-.598 2.48 2.48 0 0 1-.6-.92c-.109-.281-.24-.705-.275-1.485-.038-.843-.046-1.096-.046-3.233 0-2.136.008-2.388.046-3.231.036-.78.166-1.204.276-1.486.145-.373.319-.64.599-.92.28-.28.546-.453.92-.598.282-.11.705-.24 1.485-.276.738-.034 1.024-.044 2.515-.045v.002zm4.988 1.328a.96.96 0 1 0 0 1.92.96.96 0 0 0 0-1.92zm-4.27 1.122a4.109 4.109 0 1 0 0 8.217 4.109 4.109 0 0 0 0-8.217zm0 1.441a2.667 2.667 0 1 1 0 5.334 2.667 2.667 0 0 1 0-5.334z" fill="none" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </a> <a class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/council-on-foreign-relations" target="_blank"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-linkedin" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M0 1.146C0 .513.526 0 1.175 0h13.65C15.474 0 16 .513 16 1.146v13.708c0 .633-.526 1.146-1.175 1.146H1.175C.526 16 0 15.487 0 14.854V1.146zm4.943 12.248V6.169H2.542v7.225h2.401zm-1.2-8.212c.837 0 1.358-.554 1.358-1.248-.015-.709-.52-1.248-1.342-1.248-.822 0-1.359.54-1.359 1.248 0 .694.521 1.248 1.327 1.248h.016zm4.908 8.212V9.359c0-.216.016-.432.08-.586.173-.431.568-.878 1.232-.878.869 0 1.216.662 1.216 1.634v3.865h2.401V9.25c0-2.22-1.184-3.252-2.764-3.252-1.274 0-1.845.7-2.165 1.193v.025h-.016a5.54 5.54 0 0 1 .016-.025V6.169h-2.4c.03.678 0 7.225 0 7.225h2.4z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </footer> </div> </div> <script id="share-kit--template" type="text/template"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--icon-color-white share-kit--bg-color-white share-kit--theme-none" data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="" data-share-description="" data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="" data-share-type="" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M16 8.049c0-4.446-3.582-8.05-8-8.05C3.58 0-.002 3.603-.002 8.05c0 4.017 2.926 7.347 6.75 7.951v-5.625h-2.03V8.05H6.75V6.275c0-2.017 1.195-3.131 3.022-3.131.876 0 1.791.157 1.791.157v1.98h-1.009c-.993 0-1.303.621-1.303 1.258v1.51h2.218l-.354 2.326H9.25V16c3.824-.604 6.75-3.934 6.75-7.951z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 1350 1377" class="icon icon-twitter" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M714.163 519.284L1160.89 0H1055.03L667.137 450.887L357.328 0H0L468.492 681.821L0 1226.37H105.866L515.491 750.218L842.672 1226.37H1200L714.137 519.284H714.163ZM569.165 687.828L521.697 619.934L144.011 79.6944H306.615L611.412 515.685L658.88 583.579L1055.08 1150.3H892.476L569.165 687.854V687.828Z" fill="none" class="icon-fill" /> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-linkedin" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M0 1.146C0 .513.526 0 1.175 0h13.65C15.474 0 16 .513 16 1.146v13.708c0 .633-.526 1.146-1.175 1.146H1.175C.526 16 0 15.487 0 14.854V1.146zm4.943 12.248V6.169H2.542v7.225h2.401zm-1.2-8.212c.837 0 1.358-.554 1.358-1.248-.015-.709-.52-1.248-1.342-1.248-.822 0-1.359.54-1.359 1.248 0 .694.521 1.248 1.327 1.248h.016zm4.908 8.212V9.359c0-.216.016-.432.08-.586.173-.431.568-.878 1.232-.878.869 0 1.216.662 1.216 1.634v3.865h2.401V9.25c0-2.22-1.184-3.252-2.764-3.252-1.274 0-1.845.7-2.165 1.193v.025h-.016a5.54 5.54 0 0 1 .016-.025V6.169h-2.4c.03.678 0 7.225 0 7.225h2.4z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__e-mail-filled" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 23 14" class="icon icon-e-mail-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Email</title> <path d="M.915 0l10.258 7.808L21.673 0H.915zm10.258 8.804L0 .297V14h22.615V.297L11.173 8.804z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </button> </div> </div> </script> </div> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_fLrGdX424KJt5k0BIhhQgZfWGMLHNeVlRWisuYFrxj0.js?scope=footer&delta=0&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="https://unpkg.com/web-vitals@0.2.4/dist/web-vitals.es5.umd.min.js" defer></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_BlJ7xjc-edcuDH8YRQeq9uszQiCUvjSVaH8AIbBPZVg.js?scope=footer&delta=2&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="/modules/custom/cfr_homepage_sections/js/advanced_autocomplete.js?srwa6e" async defer></script> <script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/data-layer-helper/0.1.0/data-layer-helper.min.js"></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_gRRK4Rhgh3woXIQ2KUW_03fCzkIjeigZ_dvbvwnn5hk.js?scope=footer&delta=5&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> <script src="/modules/contrib/eu_cookie_compliance/js/eu_cookie_compliance.min.js?v=10.2.11" defer></script> <script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_57tOKFDrNquE61Rp_AOGyl7QpfXp0-qqrB_LPLjZzn0.js?scope=footer&delta=7&language=en&theme=cfr_theme&include=eJyFU8uSnDAM_CHAH7Fbqc01j7NL2D2gXRsTS7CZfH0EU5llUlRyoazWqyU14VK9jshwQyo9pZaqckhogjlukMtUL0DaobFkzDTAC4JymcRRXGkKiJ4WLaHkOUFv6UKcdKyLe6WVJFSe1dPMPnFfqV6bSEqJrqhuRJpRD0CPkVYuVZpEv65u-zQCqmF8aON26l3miTOlLog0oVS4WJfZ7AdGchVFdj0JGiw-lPLG8LubtwHcGegjLrQkbWL0d3ZeS0ni7vZnqytnEWERLfmZMyaxXX0X1CdSDGUb_r_hT2VSTPoCioknnGZUWL34zVLO3HOJgUQ_2Xpk_EfAV7Wrn_tFn63DF6y8UTqLWTmiWAVdZL-6ncSPsOtB9O8dhQ-1afb4GTBvIqJ08NglB7TIPeIBlZEq2jfWA9YvqqbAY9VURDZpfUBHPT8grSTO7UTrTTJsy67GpHv9saBeu0upuQk0axjpJpqKP-b9dcCGUoaE7g54TMeeCfWB-tDe5pR3tuiDx1YX7VcQVrzbZv2eaexYfwMdmHBb"></script> </body> </html>

CINXE.COM

The Myanmar Military is Collapsing Amidst Civil War: How Should the United States and Other Countries Prepare? | Council on Foreign Relations