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March 2025 – Antony Green's Election Blog
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</div><!--.nv-page-title--> </div> <!--.nv-page-title-wrap--> <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8334" class="post-8334 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-preferential-voting-multi-member category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-legislative-council tag-upper-house tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australian Election – Projecting the Upper House Result</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-22T20:08:25+11:00" content="2025-03-22">March 22, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-04-02T22:32:13+11:00">April 2, 2025</time></li><li class="meta comments"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/#comments">9 Comments</a></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>Post updated:</strong> 2 April – table below is the final tally of ATL votes. Comparing upper and lower house turnout rates, it appears that BTL voting will be around the same 2.5% rate as in 2021.</p> <p>Over on the ABC’s Election night I’m publishing a page that updates the Legislative Council result. The page also lists those who will be elected or might be elected, and also lists MLCs who did not contest the election or who have been defeated. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/lc-results">You can find the page here.</a></p> <p>The problem with using simple vote totals by group is that the WA Electoral Commission is only reporting totals of above-the-line (ATL) votes. Below-the-line (BTL) votes are being data entered, along with ATL with preferences votes, but no tally of BTL votes by candidate or group will be released until the end of the count.</p> <p>BTL votes could have an impact, not so much for their number or preferences, but rather because the rate of BTL voting varies by party. The rate of BTL voting is much lower for the larger parties and higher for smaller parties.</p> <p>So the current tallies that only include ATL votes over-represent the vote for major parties, and under-represents the minor party vote.</p> <p>In this post I provide a table that tries to model the impact that the inclusion of BTL votes will have on the Legislative Council result.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australian Election – Projecting the Upper House Result</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8319" class="post-8319 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-lower-house tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-19T11:54:37+11:00" content="2025-03-19">March 19, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-03-25T20:43:50+11:00">March 25, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised.</p> <p>Originally the post just covered changes in members elected at the election, but I’ve now added a long analysis comparing the result of the 2017 and 2025 elections. This compares Labor’s then best but now third best ever result at a WA election, with 2025 which is now the new second best result. It is hard to compare either with the mega-landslide result in 2021.</p> <p>But comparing 2025 to 2021 state-wide, Labor’s primary vote in the metropolitan area was down 18.3%, but the Liberal primary vote was up only 6.8%, nearly two-thirds of the lost primary vote since 2021 went to third parties before translating into an 11.9% two-party preferred swing. That still left Labor with a better result in vote and seat terms than in 2017.</p> <p>Updates to the changing membership table since the post was first updated are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Albany</strong> was confirmed as a National rather than a Liberal gain from Labor.</li> <li><strong>Warren-Blackwood</strong> was confirmed as a National gain from Labor.</li> <li><strong>Pilbara</strong> was confirmed as a Labor retain and has been removed from the table of membership changes inside the post.</li> <li>Labor continues to lead in <strong>Kalgoorlie</strong> with the result to be determined by a distribution of preferences on Saturday 22 March.</li> <li><strong>Kalamunda</strong> has been won by the Liberal Party after a re-count.</li> <li><strong>Kalgoorlie</strong> – Labor wins after distribution of preferences.</li> <li><strong>Thornlie</strong> – Labor’s Colleen Egan wins easily, but Independent Kevin McDonald has come from fourth place on 10.2% of the vote to finish second after preferences. McDonald was the Liberal candidate for the seat in 2021.</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8317" class="post-8317 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-night-coverage/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-08T12:54:06+11:00" content="2025-03-08">March 8, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-03-08T12:54:17+11:00">March 8, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Here’s my usual message to cope with the large number of people directed to this blog by Google on election night.</p> <p>I will not be providing election night commentary here. Instead I will be on the ABC’s live television coverage of the result. And you can follow the results themselves at ABC Elections.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guides">My WA election guide is here</a>. Results will be available through the site on the night.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-night-coverage/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2025/03/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_67eecd2c071bf" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Name*<br /><input type="text" name="esfpx_name" class="ig_es_form_field_name" placeholder="" value="" required="required" /></label></div><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Email*<br 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