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Antony Green's Election Blog – Musings on Elections and Politics
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class="neve-main" role="main"> <div class="container archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8334" class="post-8334 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-preferential-voting-multi-member category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-legislative-council tag-upper-house tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australian Election – Projecting the Upper House Result</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-22T20:08:25+11:00" content="2025-03-22">March 22, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-04-02T22:32:13+11:00">April 2, 2025</time></li><li class="meta comments"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/#comments">9 Comments</a></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>Post updated:</strong> 2 April – table below is the final tally of ATL votes. Comparing upper and lower house turnout rates, it appears that BTL voting will be around the same 2.5% rate as in 2021.</p> <p>Over on the ABC’s Election night I’m publishing a page that updates the Legislative Council result. The page also lists those who will be elected or might be elected, and also lists MLCs who did not contest the election or who have been defeated. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/lc-results">You can find the page here.</a></p> <p>The problem with using simple vote totals by group is that the WA Electoral Commission is only reporting totals of above-the-line (ATL) votes. Below-the-line (BTL) votes are being data entered, along with ATL with preferences votes, but no tally of BTL votes by candidate or group will be released until the end of the count.</p> <p>BTL votes could have an impact, not so much for their number or preferences, but rather because the rate of BTL voting varies by party. The rate of BTL voting is much lower for the larger parties and higher for smaller parties.</p> <p>So the current tallies that only include ATL votes over-represent the vote for major parties, and under-represents the minor party vote.</p> <p>In this post I provide a table that tries to model the impact that the inclusion of BTL votes will have on the Legislative Council result.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-projecting-the-upper-house-result/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australian Election – Projecting the Upper House Result</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8319" class="post-8319 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-lower-house tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-19T11:54:37+11:00" content="2025-03-19">March 19, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-03-25T20:43:50+11:00">March 25, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised.</p> <p>Originally the post just covered changes in members elected at the election, but I’ve now added a long analysis comparing the result of the 2017 and 2025 elections. This compares Labor’s then best but now third best ever result at a WA election, with 2025 which is now the new second best result. It is hard to compare either with the mega-landslide result in 2021.</p> <p>But comparing 2025 to 2021 state-wide, Labor’s primary vote in the metropolitan area was down 18.3%, but the Liberal primary vote was up only 6.8%, nearly two-thirds of the lost primary vote since 2021 went to third parties before translating into an 11.9% two-party preferred swing. That still left Labor with a better result in vote and seat terms than in 2017.</p> <p>Updates to the changing membership table since the post was first updated are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Albany</strong> was confirmed as a National rather than a Liberal gain from Labor.</li> <li><strong>Warren-Blackwood</strong> was confirmed as a National gain from Labor.</li> <li><strong>Pilbara</strong> was confirmed as a Labor retain and has been removed from the table of membership changes inside the post.</li> <li>Labor continues to lead in <strong>Kalgoorlie</strong> with the result to be determined by a distribution of preferences on Saturday 22 March.</li> <li><strong>Kalamunda</strong> has been won by the Liberal Party after a re-count.</li> <li><strong>Kalgoorlie</strong> – Labor wins after distribution of preferences.</li> <li><strong>Thornlie</strong> – Labor’s Colleen Egan wins easily, but Independent Kevin McDonald has come from fourth place on 10.2% of the vote to finish second after preferences. McDonald was the Liberal candidate for the seat in 2021.</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8317" class="post-8317 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-night-coverage/" rel="bookmark">2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-03-08T12:54:06+11:00" content="2025-03-08">March 8, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-03-08T12:54:17+11:00">March 8, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Here’s my usual message to cope with the large number of people directed to this blog by Google on election night.</p> <p>I will not be providing election night commentary here. Instead I will be on the ABC’s live television coverage of the result. And you can follow the results themselves at ABC Elections.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guides">My WA election guide is here</a>. Results will be available through the site on the night.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australian-election-night-coverage/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8304" class="post-8304 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-tracking-the-early-voting-statistics/" rel="bookmark">WA2025 – Tracking the Early Voting Statistics</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-28T20:27:55+11:00" content="2025-02-28">February 28, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-03-08T12:37:28+11:00">March 8, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>After a record early vote at the 2021 election, in large part driven by Covid, the rate of both pre-poll and postal voting have declined slightly at the 2025 election.</p> <p>As of close of voting on Thursday 6 March –</p> <ul> <li>a total of 557,693 Early votes have been cast representing 29.8% of enrolment</li> <li>in 2021 the totals were 585,774 representing 34.1% of enrolment.</li> <li>Early votes made up 40.2% of formal votes in 2021.</li> <li>The final Friday saw a record 107,157 votes taken compared to 86,548 on the final day of pre-polling in 2021.</li> <li>Around 215,000 postal vote applications were received, down on the number in 2021. As of Wednesday around 130,000 have been returned and are ready for counting on election night. The number of postal votes is well down on 2021 when there were 333,377 postal applications, 311,598 postal vote packs dispatched, and 246,120 returned, a return rate of 73.8%.</li> <li>As percentages the postal applications were 19.4% in 2021 but the figure in 2025 is well down at 14.4%.</li> </ul> <p>In 2025 Early voting is restricted to the two weeks before polling day. In 2021 there were an extra two days on the Friday and Saturday before the final two weeks. 94,379 Early votes were taken on these two days in 2021. There is no early voting on the first Monday in March public holiday. In 2021 the public holiday was two weeks before polling day. In 2025 it is one week before polling day on 3 March.</p> <p>Graphs of Early voting by day and accumulated percentages are inside the post. I hope to have some information on postal voting next week.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-tracking-the-early-voting-statistics/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">WA2025 – Tracking the Early Voting Statistics</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8273" class="post-8273 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-announcement category-life layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-ive-decided-to-retire-from-presenting-elections-plus-a-few-words-of-thank-you/" rel="bookmark">Why I’ve Decided to Retire from Presenting Elections Plus a few words of thanks</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-26T07:48:35+11:00" content="2025-02-26">February 26, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-26T08:24:10+11:00">February 26, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Those watching News Breakfast this morning saw me announce that this year’s Federal election will be my last as an on-air analyst as part of ABC election coverages.</p> <p>The ABC has put out a press release about my decision, but this post is a view from my perspective of my long career covering elections, a few people who I have to thank, and a few memories and anecdotes.</p> <p>And I’ve added a few pictures from the past.</p> <p>(Below: 2013 Federal election, the first from studio rather than the tally room)<br /> <img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07.jpg" alt="" width="1768" height="1188" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8287" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07.jpg 1768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-300x202.jpg 300w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-1024x688.jpg 1024w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-768x516.jpg 768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-1536x1032.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1768px) 100vw, 1768px" /></p> <p>(Below: In action, 2016 Federal election, coverage from ABC Foyer, Ultimo)<br /> <img decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01.jpg" alt="" width="2351" height="1733" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8277" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01.jpg 2351w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-300x221.jpg 300w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-1024x755.jpg 1024w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-768x566.jpg 768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-1536x1132.jpg 1536w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-2048x1510.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2351px) 100vw, 2351px" /><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-ive-decided-to-retire-from-presenting-elections-plus-a-few-words-of-thank-you/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Why I’ve Decided to Retire from Presenting Elections Plus a few words of thanks</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8252" class="post-8252 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-candidates tag-election tag-parties tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summary-of-parties-and-candidates/" rel="bookmark">WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-14T13:42:34+11:00" content="2025-02-14">February 14, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-16T20:34:46+11:00">February 16, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Nominations closed yesterday for the Western Australian election. At this stage I have been unable get hold of the published data file of nominations but have been able to confirm the lower house numbers. I believe I have also sorted out the upper house numbers.</p> <p>A total of 398 candidates have nominated for the lower house, the Legislative Assembly. There are four electorates with only four candidates (Cannington, Carine, Hillarys and Perth) and eight electorates with nine candidates (Albany, Bateman, Geraldton, Joondalup, Kalgoorlie, Kwinana, Nedlands and Southern River). This is down from 463 candidates in 2021.</p> <p><iframe title="Lower House Candidates - WA Elections 1989-2025" aria-label="Split Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-fghoH" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fghoH/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="374" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></p> <p>I await formal confirmation but I understand the Legislative Council numbers are as follows. There are 148 candidates across 13 groups and an ungrouped column. This is well down on the 325 candidates that contested the upper house in 2021. New party registration rules mean there are fewer parties, and instead of nominating two candidates in each of six regions, parties need only nominate five candidates on the state-wide ballot for access to an above-the-line voting square on the ballot paper.</p> <p>More on party affiliations and the candidate numbers inside the post. <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summary-of-parties-and-candidates/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8248" class="post-8248 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-victoria tag-by-elections tag-prahran tag-victoria tag-werribee layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-coverage-of-the-prahran-and-werribee-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-08T16:48:44+11:00" content="2025-02-08">February 8, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-08T16:53:18+11:00">February 8, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With a Federal election just weeks away, there’s deep interest in two Victorian state by-elections being held today.</p> <p>The first is in the inner-city seat of Prahran, vacant following the resignation of former Greens MLA Sam Hibbins. With no Labor candidate in the field, it is expected that the Greens will retain the seat.</p> <p>There is greater interest in the Werribee by-election caused by the departure of former state Treasurer Tim Pallas. It’s in Melbourne’s outer south-west suburbs, an area where government services and capital works expenditure has been lagging rapid population growth. That recent elections have seen marginal seats in outer south-east Melbourne attract greater promises than Labor’s safe western Melbourne seats has not gone without notice.</p> <p>I won’t be doing any commentary here. This post is simply a pointer to my by-election coverage page. This post is to re-direct with the huge spike in visitors this site receives via Google on any night when there is an election.</p> <p>I will be running a live results update service and providing commentary on the ABC’s elections site.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/prahran-by-election-2025/results">You can find Prahran results here.</a></strong></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025/results">And the Werribee results here.</a></strong></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/prahran-by-election-2025/commentary">And there is a commentary page where I will add comments on both results.</a></strong></p> <p>You can navigate between the results pages and access the pages of background material on the contests that has been available on the site for several weeks.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-coverage-of-the-prahran-and-werribee-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8241" class="post-8241 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-guide tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-my-guide-to-the-2025-election-has-been-published/" rel="bookmark">WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-01-15T20:34:25+11:00" content="2025-01-15">January 15, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-01-15T20:50:53+11:00">January 15, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A Federal election is looming over the political horizon, but before then (probably) there is a Western Australian election to be held on March 8.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/preview">My guide to the WA election has just been published at this link by the ABC.</a></p> <p>The guide has the usual features, a preview, a profile page for each electorate including historic and electoral background, past results and profiles of candidates. There’s the usual site indexes by candidate name, by electorate name and margin. A Legislative Council preview and candidate listing will follow in the next few days.</p> <p>Tomorrow I should also publish guides for the Victorian by-elections to be held in Prahran and Werribee on 8 February. I’ll be doing a full results service that evening. I also hope to have a Federal guide up by the end of this month.</p> <p>Inside the post there’s a teaser to the WA guide preview.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-my-guide-to-the-2025-election-has-been-published/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8211" class="post-8211 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-275 tag-australia tag-election tag-federal tag-margiuns tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" rel="bookmark">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-19T22:20:14+11:00" content="2024-12-19">December 19, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-29T16:22:59+11:00">December 29, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year鈥檚 Federal election.</p> <p>The 2025 Federal election will be fought on new electoral boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. There has also been a redistribution in the Northern Territory though those boundaries are yet to be formally gazetted into place.</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/">Earlier this month I published my estimates of post-redistribution margins.</a> These are the margins I recommend the ABC should use at the 2025 election. (The post includes links to an alphabetic list of electorates and all new margins plus a new pendulum.</p> <p>Having been asked my opinion of the AEC’s estimated new margins, I agree with the AEC in 137 of the 150 seats, am in close agreement on another four, but disagree on nine seats to varying degrees.</p> <p>These nine seats are contests that did not finish as traditional two-party preferred races between Labor and the Coalition in 2022, and where there have been significant boundary changes.</p> <p>Inside this post I have published a table that includes my estimated margins for these nine seats, as well as the AEC鈥檚, and two other estimates published by prominent election observers, <a href="https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/pendulumfed2025">Ben Raue of the Tallyroom website</a>, and <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/14/weekend-miscellany-duelling-pendulums-tasmanian-seat-polling-and-more-open-thread/">William Bowe of the Pollbludger website</a>.</p> <p>(The AEC’s estimates are now available. <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/files/Seat-status-fact-sheet-2025-federal-election.pdf">You can find them at this link.</a>)</p> <p>In some entries in the table, the AEC鈥檚 estimates differ from the values that Ben, William and I calculated independently. In other entries the different methodologies adopted mean there are a range of possible estimated margins. </p> <p>In this post I鈥檒l run through detail on where there is disagreement. </p> <p>But I need to make clear I am in no way suggesting there is a problem with how the AEC will conduct the 2025 election.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8216" class="post-8216 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-pendulums category-northern-territory tag-218 tag-election tag-northern-territory tag-nt tag-pendulum tag-results layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/" rel="bookmark">NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-17T21:57:00+11:00" content="2024-12-17">December 17, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-19T10:36:52+11:00">December 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Eight years and two terms after Labor defeated the Giles government and reduced the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party to just two seats, the tables were turned on 24 August this year. The Lawler Labor government suffered a massive defeat, swept from government and expelled from the greater Darwin metropolitan area, Labor retaining just four seats, all in the NT’s pastoral and remote regions.</p> <p>And in another parallel with eight years ago, the 2024 election saw the government swept from office and the Chief Minister lose their seat. In 2016 it was CLP Chief Minister Adam Giles who lost his previously safe seat of Braitling. In 2024 Eva Lawler lost her marginal seat of Drysdale after a massive swing of 20.4%.</p> <p>Lawler鈥檚 predecessor as Labor Chief Minister, Natasha Fyles, was also defeated. Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff had been Labor鈥檚 safest seat before the election, but was lost to the Greens who finished third on the primary vote before leap frogging to victory on preferences.</p> <p>New Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro took office at her second election as leader, having lifted the CLP from two seats to eight in 2020, and going further to win 17 of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2024 election.</p> <p>For the first time since self-government, Labor won no seats in greater Darwin. The party retained only four seats, Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. All four are rural and remote seats with a much higher than average percentage of Indigenous residents, and all four re-elected Labor members are themselves Indigenous.</p> <p>The 2024 result is a reversion to Labor鈥檚 dire period between 1977 and 2001 when the party mainly held remote districts and struggled to break the CLP’s hold on Darwin seats.</p> <p>As I wrote in my election preview, Northern Territory elections are won and lost in greater Darwin, and more particularly in Darwin鈥檚 northern suburbs. The 2012 election won by the CLP remains the only Northern Territory election where the party forming government did not electorally dominate Darwin. The three elections since, including 2024, have reverted to the long-term trend of Northern Territory politics.</p> <p>The CLP鈥檚 victories in northern Darwin were not as sweeping as elsewhere in the Territory with two of Labor鈥檚 losses going to the crossbench, Independent Justine Davis winning Johnston and the Greens Kat McNamara winning Nightcliff. The CLP鈥檚 narrow victory over the Greens in Fannie Bay was an oddity with the alternative two-party preferred vote revealing a Labor majority.</p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/nt/2024/guide/NT2024-ResultSummary.pdf">I鈥檝e prepared a summary of the results which you can find at this link.</a> The summary also includes alternative two-party preferred counts made available by the NT Electoral Commission.</p> <p>There is much detail on the results in the results summary, but I’ll go through some of the main points inside this post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div><ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" 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