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Antony Green's Election Blog – Musings on Elections and Politics
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class="neve-main" role="main"> <div class="container archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8273" class="post-8273 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-announcement category-life layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-ive-decided-to-retire-from-presenting-elections-plus-a-few-words-of-thank-you/" rel="bookmark">Why I’ve Decided to Retire from Presenting Elections Plus a few words of thanks</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-26T07:48:35+11:00" content="2025-02-26">February 26, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-26T08:24:10+11:00">February 26, 2025</time></li><li class="meta comments"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-ive-decided-to-retire-from-presenting-elections-plus-a-few-words-of-thank-you/#comments">74 Comments</a></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Those watching News Breakfast this morning saw me announce that this year’s Federal election will be my last as an on-air analyst as part of ABC election coverages.</p> <p>The ABC has put out a press release about my decision, but this post is a view from my perspective of my long career covering elections, a few people who I have to thank, and a few memories and anecdotes.</p> <p>And I’ve added a few pictures from the past.</p> <p>(Below: 2013 Federal election, the first from studio rather than the tally room)<br /> <img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07.jpg" alt="" width="1768" height="1188" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8287" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07.jpg 1768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-300x202.jpg 300w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-1024x688.jpg 1024w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-768x516.jpg 768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2013_07-1536x1032.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1768px) 100vw, 1768px" /></p> <p>(Below: In action, 2016 Federal election, coverage from ABC Foyer, Ultimo)<br /> <img decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01.jpg" alt="" width="2351" height="1733" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8277" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01.jpg 2351w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-300x221.jpg 300w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-1024x755.jpg 1024w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-768x566.jpg 768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-1536x1132.jpg 1536w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/FedElection2016_01-2048x1510.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2351px) 100vw, 2351px" /><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-ive-decided-to-retire-from-presenting-elections-plus-a-few-words-of-thank-you/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Why I’ve Decided to Retire from Presenting Elections Plus a few words of thanks</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8252" class="post-8252 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-candidates tag-election tag-parties tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summary-of-parties-and-candidates/" rel="bookmark">WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-14T13:42:34+11:00" content="2025-02-14">February 14, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-16T20:34:46+11:00">February 16, 2025</time></li><li class="meta comments"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summary-of-parties-and-candidates/#comments">9 Comments</a></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Nominations closed yesterday for the Western Australian election. At this stage I have been unable get hold of the published data file of nominations but have been able to confirm the lower house numbers. I believe I have also sorted out the upper house numbers.</p> <p>A total of 398 candidates have nominated for the lower house, the Legislative Assembly. There are four electorates with only four candidates (Cannington, Carine, Hillarys and Perth) and eight electorates with nine candidates (Albany, Bateman, Geraldton, Joondalup, Kalgoorlie, Kwinana, Nedlands and Southern River). This is down from 463 candidates in 2021.</p> <p><iframe title="Lower House Candidates - WA Elections 1989-2025" aria-label="Split Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-fghoH" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fghoH/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="374" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></p> <p>I await formal confirmation but I understand the Legislative Council numbers are as follows. There are 148 candidates across 13 groups and an ungrouped column. This is well down on the 325 candidates that contested the upper house in 2021. New party registration rules mean there are fewer parties, and instead of nominating two candidates in each of six regions, parties need only nominate five candidates on the state-wide ballot for access to an above-the-line voting square on the ballot paper.</p> <p>More on party affiliations and the candidate numbers inside the post. <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summary-of-parties-and-candidates/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8248" class="post-8248 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-victoria tag-by-elections tag-prahran tag-victoria tag-werribee layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-coverage-of-the-prahran-and-werribee-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-02-08T16:48:44+11:00" content="2025-02-08">February 8, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-08T16:53:18+11:00">February 8, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With a Federal election just weeks away, there’s deep interest in two Victorian state by-elections being held today.</p> <p>The first is in the inner-city seat of Prahran, vacant following the resignation of former Greens MLA Sam Hibbins. With no Labor candidate in the field, it is expected that the Greens will retain the seat.</p> <p>There is greater interest in the Werribee by-election caused by the departure of former state Treasurer Tim Pallas. It’s in Melbourne’s outer south-west suburbs, an area where government services and capital works expenditure has been lagging rapid population growth. That recent elections have seen marginal seats in outer south-east Melbourne attract greater promises than Labor’s safe western Melbourne seats has not gone without notice.</p> <p>I won’t be doing any commentary here. This post is simply a pointer to my by-election coverage page. This post is to re-direct with the huge spike in visitors this site receives via Google on any night when there is an election.</p> <p>I will be running a live results update service and providing commentary on the ABC’s elections site.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/prahran-by-election-2025/results">You can find Prahran results here.</a></strong></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025/results">And the Werribee results here.</a></strong></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/prahran-by-election-2025/commentary">And there is a commentary page where I will add comments on both results.</a></strong></p> <p>You can navigate between the results pages and access the pages of background material on the contests that has been available on the site for several weeks.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-coverage-of-the-prahran-and-werribee-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8241" class="post-8241 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-275 tag-election tag-guide tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-my-guide-to-the-2025-election-has-been-published/" rel="bookmark">WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-01-15T20:34:25+11:00" content="2025-01-15">January 15, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-01-15T20:50:53+11:00">January 15, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A Federal election is looming over the political horizon, but before then (probably) there is a Western Australian election to be held on March 8.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/preview">My guide to the WA election has just been published at this link by the ABC.</a></p> <p>The guide has the usual features, a preview, a profile page for each electorate including historic and electoral background, past results and profiles of candidates. There’s the usual site indexes by candidate name, by electorate name and margin. A Legislative Council preview and candidate listing will follow in the next few days.</p> <p>Tomorrow I should also publish guides for the Victorian by-elections to be held in Prahran and Werribee on 8 February. I’ll be doing a full results service that evening. I also hope to have a Federal guide up by the end of this month.</p> <p>Inside the post there’s a teaser to the WA guide preview.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa2025-my-guide-to-the-2025-election-has-been-published/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8211" class="post-8211 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-275 tag-australia tag-election tag-federal tag-margiuns tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" rel="bookmark">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-19T22:20:14+11:00" content="2024-12-19">December 19, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-29T16:22:59+11:00">December 29, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>The 2025 Federal election will be fought on new electoral boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. There has also been a redistribution in the Northern Territory though those boundaries are yet to be formally gazetted into place.</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/">Earlier this month I published my estimates of post-redistribution margins.</a> These are the margins I recommend the ABC should use at the 2025 election. (The post includes links to an alphabetic list of electorates and all new margins plus a new pendulum.</p> <p>Having been asked my opinion of the AEC’s estimated new margins, I agree with the AEC in 137 of the 150 seats, am in close agreement on another four, but disagree on nine seats to varying degrees.</p> <p>These nine seats are contests that did not finish as traditional two-party preferred races between Labor and the Coalition in 2022, and where there have been significant boundary changes.</p> <p>Inside this post I have published a table that includes my estimated margins for these nine seats, as well as the AEC’s, and two other estimates published by prominent election observers, <a href="https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/pendulumfed2025">Ben Raue of the Tallyroom website</a>, and <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/14/weekend-miscellany-duelling-pendulums-tasmanian-seat-polling-and-more-open-thread/">William Bowe of the Pollbludger website</a>.</p> <p>(The AEC’s estimates are now available. <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/files/Seat-status-fact-sheet-2025-federal-election.pdf">You can find them at this link.</a>)</p> <p>In some entries in the table, the AEC’s estimates differ from the values that Ben, William and I calculated independently. In other entries the different methodologies adopted mean there are a range of possible estimated margins. </p> <p>In this post I’ll run through detail on where there is disagreement. </p> <p>But I need to make clear I am in no way suggesting there is a problem with how the AEC will conduct the 2025 election.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8216" class="post-8216 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-pendulums category-northern-territory tag-218 tag-election tag-northern-territory tag-nt tag-pendulum tag-results layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/" rel="bookmark">NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-17T21:57:00+11:00" content="2024-12-17">December 17, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-19T10:36:52+11:00">December 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Eight years and two terms after Labor defeated the Giles government and reduced the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party to just two seats, the tables were turned on 24 August this year. The Lawler Labor government suffered a massive defeat, swept from government and expelled from the greater Darwin metropolitan area, Labor retaining just four seats, all in the NT’s pastoral and remote regions.</p> <p>And in another parallel with eight years ago, the 2024 election saw the government swept from office and the Chief Minister lose their seat. In 2016 it was CLP Chief Minister Adam Giles who lost his previously safe seat of Braitling. In 2024 Eva Lawler lost her marginal seat of Drysdale after a massive swing of 20.4%.</p> <p>Lawler’s predecessor as Labor Chief Minister, Natasha Fyles, was also defeated. Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff had been Labor’s safest seat before the election, but was lost to the Greens who finished third on the primary vote before leap frogging to victory on preferences.</p> <p>New Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro took office at her second election as leader, having lifted the CLP from two seats to eight in 2020, and going further to win 17 of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2024 election.</p> <p>For the first time since self-government, Labor won no seats in greater Darwin. The party retained only four seats, Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. All four are rural and remote seats with a much higher than average percentage of Indigenous residents, and all four re-elected Labor members are themselves Indigenous.</p> <p>The 2024 result is a reversion to Labor’s dire period between 1977 and 2001 when the party mainly held remote districts and struggled to break the CLP’s hold on Darwin seats.</p> <p>As I wrote in my election preview, Northern Territory elections are won and lost in greater Darwin, and more particularly in Darwin’s northern suburbs. The 2012 election won by the CLP remains the only Northern Territory election where the party forming government did not electorally dominate Darwin. The three elections since, including 2024, have reverted to the long-term trend of Northern Territory politics.</p> <p>The CLP’s victories in northern Darwin were not as sweeping as elsewhere in the Territory with two of Labor’s losses going to the crossbench, Independent Justine Davis winning Johnston and the Greens Kat McNamara winning Nightcliff. The CLP’s narrow victory over the Greens in Fannie Bay was an oddity with the alternative two-party preferred vote revealing a Labor majority.</p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/nt/2024/guide/NT2024-ResultSummary.pdf">I’ve prepared a summary of the results which you can find at this link.</a> The summary also includes alternative two-party preferred counts made available by the NT Electoral Commission.</p> <p>There is much detail on the results in the results summary, but I’ll go through some of the main points inside this post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8202" class="post-8202 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-western-australia tag-australia tag-election-dates tag-elections layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/will-australia-have-its-first-february-election-and-what-about-the-wa-election-date/" rel="bookmark">Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-13T13:15:13+11:00" content="2024-12-13">December 13, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-17T14:00:41+11:00">December 17, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Australia is the land of the long summer holiday and woe betide any Prime Minister announcing the start of an election campaign before Australia Day.</p> <p>Australia has never held a Federal election in January or February.</p> <p><iframe title="Federal Elections by Month Held" aria-label="Stacked Columns" id="datawrapper-chart-0xa9k" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0xa9k/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="430" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></p> <p>In 2015 Campbell Newman unexpectedly announced an election date in the first week of the new year with polling day for 31 January. The unexpected announcement was followed by an unexpected defeat for the Newman government with the Premier losing his own seat.</p> <p>Before that, Tasmania's Field minority Labor government announced an election date in early January 1992 with polling for 1 February. After a difficult three years in office, the Field government was defeated and replaced by a majority Liberal government.</p> <p>February elections with campaigning through January used to be common in Western Australia with 9 of the 10 election dates between 1977 and 2005 being in February. This includes two on the first Saturday in February. After the 2008 election was called six months early for September, fixed terms were adopted with elections now held on the second Saturday in March every four years.</p> <p>The next Western Australian election is set for Saturday 8 March. It is a date around which the Albanese government must navigate as options for changing the WA date are complex and require agreement from the Leader of the state Opposition.</p> <p>And neither state nor federal leaders want to annoy voters by forcing them to the polls twice within a month. Given how reliant the Albanese government was on Western Australia to achieve majority government in 2022, the Prime Minister will be unusually attuned to the political mood of the west.</p> <p>In 1983 Malcolm Fraser called a snap double dissolution election for 5 March. Western Australia was already in the middle of a state election campaign and polling days for the two elections were held a fortnight apart.</p> <p>On 19 February 1983, Labor under Brian Burke swept to office. Two weeks later, Labor under Bob Hawke won the Federal election and recorded 55% of the two-party preferred in Western Australia. Labor didn't match that figure again until Anthony Albanese's victory in 2022.</p> <p>In 1993, Labor under Premier Carmen Lawrence lost office at an election on 6 February. The result indicated that Labor's vote was holding up in the west. The next day Prime Minister Paul Keating called a Federal election for 13 March. An 'unlosable' election that Keating was to win against Dr John Hewson.</p> <p>If WA Labor were to have a good state election result on 8 March, the fact that Easter is late in 2025 means the Prime Minister would have time to visit the Governor-General on 9 March and request an election for Saturday 12 April. It would mean abandoning the federal Budget currently scheduled for 25 March.</p> <p>Or what if the Prime Minister were to call the election before Western Australia goes to the polls?</p> <p>As I explain inside the post, that's where options to vary Western Australia's fixed term election date come into play.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/will-australia-have-its-first-february-election-and-what-about-the-wa-election-date/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8179" class="post-8179 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-275 tag-australia tag-election tag-electoral-pendulum tag-federal tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/" rel="bookmark">FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-04T13:57:19+11:00" content="2024-12-04">December 4, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-04T14:27:06+11:00">December 4, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries.</p> <p>In this post I summarise the state of play going into the election and provide estimated margins for all seats affected by the redistribution. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/FED2025_ElectorateListing.pdf">You can find a listing of margins for all seats at this link.</a></p> <p>The above document lists traditional two-party preferred margins for all seats, but also alternative two-candidate preferred margins in seats that were not contests between Labor and the Coalition in 2022.</p> <p>There were a record 27 seats in 2022 that did not finish as contests between Labor and Coalition candidates. There is every chance this number could increase in 2025, with analysis of results further complicated by the new electoral boundaries.</p> <p>I’ve tried to create a new electoral pendulum that summarises the party contest for 2025. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/FED2025_PostRedistPendulum.pdf">You can find the pendulum at this link.</a></p> <p>The pendulum groups seats by holding party, simplified to Labor, Coalition and ‘Other’ groupings. Within each party grouping, seats are listed in margin order. Second placed party is also shown for seats that were not Labor versus Coalition contests in 2022.</p> <p>The problem with this layout is that it mixes two-party and two-candidate margins. The ordering allows you to identify marginal seats, but makes it impossible to apply uniform two-party preferred swing to try and predict seat numbers. It is best to skip over the ‘Other’ contest seats in applying two-party swing.</p> <p>On a third page of the pendulum document I’ve added mini-pendulums that set out margins for Labor versus Others and Coalition versus Others contests. For several electorates where Labor and the Greens compete on first preferences to make the final contest versus the Coalition, I have also provided an estimated primary vote margin. </p> <p>There’s more about the redistribution and information on how the new margins have been calculated inside this post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8156" class="post-8156 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-south-australia tag-black tag-by-election tag-sa tag-south-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sas-black-by-election-plus-why-sa-needs-to-update-how-it-counts-early-votes/" rel="bookmark">SA’s Black By-election, plus why SA needs to update how it counts early votes</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-16T17:34:50+11:00" content="2024-11-16">November 16, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-20T20:54:54+11:00">November 20, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>Update 20 November</strong> – I did not know when I wrote this post, but two days before polling day for the Black by-election, the Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Bill was introduced into the Legislative Council. Its provisions include allowing the issuing Early votes as ordinary votes, a provision which allows Early votes to be counted on election night. A step forward compared to what happened at the Black by-election.) </p> <p>Tonight I will be covering the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/results">Black By-election at the ABC’s election website</a>.</p> <p>As my blog receives a massive number of click throughs from Google whenever there is an election, I make sure to provide a link to where I’m reporting the results. So if you want to know Black by-election results, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/results">try the Black by-election page at ABC elections.</a></p> <p>But it’s also worth me publishing a post on how the South Australian Electoral Act will probably prevent us knowing the winner of the Black by-election tonight.</p> <p>More than 10,099 ballot papers for the Black by-election, 8,544 Early votes and 1,555 Postal votes, sit sealed in Declaration envelopes at the Electoral Commission waiting to be opened and counted. But the law prevents the SA Electoral Commission from counting these votes tonight. Counting of them cannot begin until Monday.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sas-black-by-election-plus-why-sa-needs-to-update-how-it-counts-early-votes/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">SA’s Black By-election, plus why SA needs to update how it counts early votes</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8132" class="post-8132 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-queensland tag-218 tag-election tag-queensland tag-results tag-summary tag-two-party-swing layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-initial-analysis-of-the-queensland-election-result/" rel="bookmark">QLD2024 – Initial Analysis of the Queensland Election Result</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-15T15:24:53+11:00" content="2024-11-15">November 15, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-16T08:27:59+11:00">November 16, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The Liberal National Party (LNP) led by new Premier David Crisafulli won the Queensland election on 26 October, a result that had been widely expected for more than a year.</p> <p>The Labor Party under Premier Steven Miles, who had replaced long-serving Annastacia Palaszczuk the previous December, managed to limit the scale of its defeat compared to predictions of a landslide based on polls published earlier in the year.</p> <p>But the result was a still a comfortable victory for the LNP and clear defeat for Labor. The two parties virtually exchanged places in seats and votes compared to Labor’s last election victory under Annastacia Palaszczuk.</p> <p>In 2020 Labor won 52 seats with 53.2% of the two-party preferred vote with the LNP winning 34 seats. In 2024 it was the LNP winning 52 seas on a slightly higher 53.8% of the two-party preferred vote, while Labor finished on 36 seats.</p> <p>The new government has 16 more seats than Labor and a majority of 11 over all other parties in the new Legislative Assembly. That would be at risk if the LNP suffered the same reverses as it did under Campbell Newman between 2012 and 2015, five members lost in total to defections and by-elections. But the smaller number of ‘accidental’ MPs elected compared to 2012, plus the need to keep the team together with a smaller majority, should give greater focus to the new LNP party room. </p> <p>The LNP gained 18 seats on a state-wide swing of 7.0%, exactly the result you would have predicted applying a uniform swing of 7.0% to the pre-election pendulum. As usually occurs with pendulums, some of the seats on small margins retained by Labor were cancelled out by the LNP achieving larger swings in some safer Labor seats. Especially in the state’s regional cities.</p> <p>The state-wide swing masks a big difference between the swing in Greater Brisbane compared to regional cities along the Queensland coast. </p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/qld/2024/guide/QLD2024_ResultSummary.pdf">I’ve prepared a summary of the results which you can find at this link.</a></p> <p>The summary includes two-party preferred analysis of seats and by region, including estimated two-party results for electorates that did not finish as Labor-LNP contests. There’s also a summary of results by region and details of new and departing members by electorate.</p> <p>Inside this post I’ll augment the results document linked above with some commentary.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-initial-analysis-of-the-queensland-election-result/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD2024 – Initial Analysis of the Queensland Election Result</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div><ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/page/2/">2</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/page/3/">3</a></li> <li><span class="page-numbers dots">…</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/page/29/">29</a></li> <li><a rel="next" class="next page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/page/2/">Next »</a></li> </ul> <div 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