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July 2021 – Antony Green's Election Blog

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> <svg width="15" height="15" viewBox="0 0 1792 1792" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M1216 832q0-185-131.5-316.5t-316.5-131.5-316.5 131.5-131.5 316.5 131.5 316.5 316.5 131.5 316.5-131.5 131.5-316.5zm512 832q0 52-38 90t-90 38q-54 0-90-38l-343-342q-179 124-399 124-143 0-273.5-55.5t-225-150-150-225-55.5-273.5 55.5-273.5 150-225 225-150 273.5-55.5 273.5 55.5 225 150 150 225 55.5 273.5q0 220-124 399l343 343q37 37 37 90z"/></svg> </div> </span> </button> </form> </div></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="header-menu-sidebar-overlay hfg-ov"></div> </div> </header> <main id="content" class="neve-main" role="main"> <div class="container archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="nv-page-title-wrap nv-big-title" > <div class="nv-page-title "> <h1>July 2021</h1> </div><!--.nv-page-title--> </div> <!--.nv-page-title-wrap--> <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-4875" class="post-4875 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-australia tag-elections tag-electoral-boundaries tag-redistributions tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2021-federal-redistribution-boundaries-finalised-for-victoria/" rel="bookmark">2021 Federal Redistribution &#8211; Boundaries Finalised for Victoria</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-07-26T13:08:15+10:00" content="2021-07-26">July 26, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-09-07T14:15:58+10:00">September 7, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Draft Federal electoral boundaries were released in March and finalised at the end of June.</p> <p>Today the supporting documentation, the maps and enrolment data, have been published which allows me to publish estimated margins for the finalised boundaries.</p> <p>There were two changes of significance from the draft boundaries. Most of the proposed suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins have been reversed, and the proposal to re-name Corangamite as Tucker has also been abandoned.</p> <p>The overall summary of the redistribution is that all 38 continuing seats remain held by the party that won the division in 2019, and the newly created 39th division is called Hawke and is a safe Labor seat.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2021-federal-redistribution-boundaries-finalised-for-victoria/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More &raquo;<span class="screen-reader-text">2021 Federal Redistribution &#8211; Boundaries Finalised for Victoria</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-4837" class="post-4837 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-preferential-voting-multi-member category-western-australia tag-group-voting-tickets tag-legislative-council tag-preference-harvesting tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/how-the-liberals-stopped-no-mandatory-vaccination-winning-a-seat-in-the-wa-legislative-council/" rel="bookmark">How the Liberals stopped No Mandatory Vaccination Winning a Seat in the WA Legislative Council</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-07-12T12:22:44+10:00" content="2021-07-12">July 12, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-07-13T21:46:10+10:00">July 13, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2021-wa-election-how-the-daylight-saving-party-turned-98-votes-into-a-seat-in-the-legislative-council/">victory of the Daylight Saving Party&#8217;s Wilson Tucker from only 98 votes</a> at March&#8217;s WA Legislative Council election has attracted much attention and derision. It has also become the justification for the McGowan government&#8217;s plans to reform the Legislative Council&#8217;s electoral system.</p> <p>But Tucker&#8217;s victory was not the only example in March of group voting tickets being used to engineer results. In South Metropolitan Region, a well co-ordinated preference &#8220;harvesting&#8221; operation almost delivered the final seat in the region to Cam Tinley of the No Mandatory Vaccination Party. </p> <p>These examples highlight how the manipulation of group voting tickets (GVTs) by the tactic of preference harvesting can distort the intent of voters. Voters for 19 of the 26 party and independent groups on the ballot paper had their votes delivered by GVTs to Cam Tinley.</p> <p>That&#8217;s more than 40,000 voters with no idea their above-the-line vote for a chosen party or independent would be sent off to try an elect a representative from the No Mandatory Vaccination Party.</p> <p>The only thing that prevented Cam Tinley beating the Green&#8217;s Brad Pettitt was a decision announced early in the campaign by the Liberal Party that it would put No Mandatory Vaccination behind Labor and the Greens on how-to-votes and upper house GVTs.</p> <p>At the very end of the South Metropolitan Region count, that decision sent around 12,200 Liberal GVT preferences Pettitt&#8217;s way, delivering the Greens a seat that could otherwise would have gone to No Mandatory Vaccination. None of the 20 parties that contributed to Tinley&#8217;s final tally polled more than 1.9% of the vote, and 11 polled less than half a percent.</p> <p>Despite these parties attracting few votes, GVTs delivered their preference negotiators total control over how ballot papers would have their preferences transferred. It allowed party votes to be stacked in a way that would have been impossible if voters controlled how preference were distributed.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/how-the-liberals-stopped-no-mandatory-vaccination-winning-a-seat-in-the-wa-legislative-council/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More &raquo;<span class="screen-reader-text">How the Liberals stopped No Mandatory Vaccination Winning a Seat in the WA Legislative Council</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2021/07/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_674c554ec97ae" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div 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