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</div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-3956" class="post-3956 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-preferential-voting-single-member-av category-western-australia tag-124 tag-calculators tag-election tag-group-voting-tickets tag-legislative-council tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/western-australian-legislative-council-calculators-launched/" rel="bookmark">Western Australian Legislative Council Calculators Launched</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-23T15:37:34+11:00" content="2021-02-23">February 23, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-03T21:55:18+11:00">March 3, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Today I have launched my Legislative Council calculators for the Western Australian election.</p> <p>You can find the calculators for each region <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/calculator-upper">at this link</a>, an explanation of how they work <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/calculator-upper-help">on this page</a>, and links to the group voting tickets for each region <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/gvt-index/">over here</a>.</p> <p>At the 2017 election, more than 95% of votes in all six regions were cast as single ‘1’ above the line tickets, meaning those votes were counted according to each party’s lodged group voting tickets.</p> <p>The asymmetry of effort between casting a single ‘1’ for a party above the line, or laboriously numbering more than 50 preferences below the line, herds voters into accepting the preference deals and voting above the line for a single party. That sends their vote off on a preferential magical mystery tour across the ballot paper.</p> <p>As usual there are complex micro-party preference harvesting deals, though not as locked together as at some previous elections. Each of the micro-parties has been allocated a region in which they will be favoured. These are – <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/western-australian-legislative-council-calculators-launched/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Western Australian Legislative Council Calculators Launched</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3940" class="post-3940 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-electoral-history category-western-australia tag-campbell-newman tag-john-howard tag-stanley-bruce tag-zak-kirkup layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-gurgle-hole-of-history-leaders-whove-lost-their-seats-at-elections/" rel="bookmark">The Gurgle Hole of History – Leaders who’ve lost their Seats at Elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-20T21:29:54+11:00" content="2021-02-20">February 20, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-19T16:50:47+11:00">March 19, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Western Australia’s Liberal Leader Zak Kirkup holds his seat of Dawesville by a margin of just 0.8%.</p> <p>According to the Newspoll in this morning’s <em>The Australian</em>, the swing to Labor at the state election on 13 March could be more than ten times Kirkup’s margin in Dawesville. Kirkup is clearly in danger of losing his seat, even if you intone the usual caveats about margin of error and the perils of assuming uniform swing.</p> <p>It raises the grim prospect for Kirkup that his name could soon be added to an unwanted list – that of government leaders and opposition leaders who have lost their seats at an election.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-gurgle-hole-of-history-leaders-whove-lost-their-seats-at-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">The Gurgle Hole of History – Leaders who’ve lost their Seats at Elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3929" class="post-3929 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-124 tag-donkey-voting tag-elections tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/donkey-vote-advantages-for-the-2021-western-australian-election/" rel="bookmark">Donkey Vote Advantages for the 2021 Western Australian Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-13T17:10:43+11:00" content="2021-02-13">February 13, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-03T21:55:49+11:00">March 3, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With nominations for the WA election now published, it’s worth assessing what small advantage candidates and parties will gain from the ‘donkey vote’.</p> <p>I have published all candidates in ballot paper order on the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/electorates">ABC’s election website</a> if you want investigate the ballot orders yourself. I have also summarised the nominations <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/a-record-number-of-candidate-nominate-for-western-australian-election/">in another blog post</a>.</p> <p>Analysis of Australian elections has always shown that a small advantage accrues to the candidate that appears first on a lower house ballot paper. As the number of candidates increases, the advantage seems to increase. No one wants to be listed last on a ballot paper with a dozen or more candidates, a disadvantage the Liberal Party suffered at last year’s Eden-Monaro by-election.</p> <p>A similar advantage exists with upper house ballot papers for groups that appear in the first column at the left hand edge of the ballot paper. Experience has shown this advantage is even greater when there is confusion over ballot paper names. That will certainly be a problem for the Liberal Party at the 2021 WA election.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/donkey-vote-advantages-for-the-2021-western-australian-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Donkey Vote Advantages for the 2021 Western Australian Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3914" class="post-3914 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-124 tag-candidates tag-election tag-nominations tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/a-record-number-of-candidate-nominate-for-western-australian-election/" rel="bookmark">A Record Number of Candidate Nominate for Western Australian Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-12T22:26:24+11:00" content="2021-02-12">February 12, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-02-13T01:01:34+11:00">February 13, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>For the second election in a row, a record number of candidates have nominated to contest a Western Australian election.</p> <p>The surge in numbers is largely down to a surge in minor party lower house nominations in support of upper house campaigns.</p> <p>A total of 463 candidates have nominated for the 59 districts in the Legislative Assembly, and another 325 for the 36 vacancies in the Legislative Council.</p> <p>All candidates have now been uploaded to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/preview"> the ABC’s election website</a>.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/a-record-number-of-candidate-nominate-for-western-australian-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">A Record Number of Candidate Nominate for Western Australian Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3900" class="post-3900 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-124 tag-election tag-kalgoorlie tag-one-vote-one-value tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/kalgoorlie-changing-boundaries-changing-votes/" rel="bookmark">Kalgoorlie – Changing Boundaries, Changing Votes</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-10T15:05:03+11:00" content="2021-02-10">February 10, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-03T21:56:07+11:00">March 3, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Kalgoorlie was one of the Western Australian regional seats whose politics was upended by the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries. As was also the case with Albany and Geraldton, a small urban seat suddenly expanded to include rural areas. And in the case of Kalgoorlie, to include vast remote districts. </p> <p>It wasn’t just new boundaries that changed the political complexion of Kalgoorlie. Labor had already lost the seat in 2001 as the result of a decline in Labor support that began in the 1980s.</p> <p>(This post is an extract from the Kalgoorlie page of my 2021 WA Election guide. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/kalg/">You can find the full electorate profile here.</a>)</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/kalgoorlie-changing-boundaries-changing-votes/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Kalgoorlie – Changing Boundaries, Changing Votes</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3893" class="post-3893 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-124 tag-candidates tag-election tag-parties tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/western-australian-election-site-updates/" rel="bookmark">Western Australian Election Site Updates</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-08T17:34:16+11:00" content="2021-02-08">February 8, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-05T09:27:35+11:00">March 5, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(This post is being updated most days. See inside post for details)</p> <p>My <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/preview">2021 Western Australian Election Website</a> has been published on the ABC website. While published at the start of campaign, the site continues to have material added to it on a daily basis.</p> <p>As an experiment, I’m going to maintain this post as a daily log of updates.</p> <p>For anyone who wants to submit candidate information for the site, don’t send it through this blog. Please use the <a href = "mailto: elections@abc.net.au">ABC elections e-mail link</a>.</p> <h4>Wednesday 3 March</h4> <p> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/western-australian-election-site-updates/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Western Australian Election Site Updates</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-3872" class="post-3872 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-western-australia tag-albany tag-bellwether-seats tag-peter-watson tag-wa-election tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-battle-for-albany/" rel="bookmark">The Battle for Albany</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2021-02-07T15:58:09+11:00" content="2021-02-07">February 7, 2021</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-03-03T21:56:37+11:00">March 3, 2021</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Before discussing the battle for Albany, I’ll give a plug for my <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/preview">2021 Western Australian election guide</a> that is now available on the ABC website.</p> <p>The guide has all the usual bells and whistles, backgrounds on all seats, maps with 2017 polling place results, background on candidates, and indexes by candidate name, electorate name and electorate margin. The site is not static and is updated on a daily basis. Full lists of candidates will be added after the release of nominations on 12 February, and upper house calculators will be launched once group voting tickets have been lodged.</p> <p>But back to this post’s subject – Albany. It is almost an anti-bellwether seat, having been retained by Labor for two decades, against all state-wide trends, almost entirely due to the personal vote of sitting Labor MLA Peter Watson.</p> <p>Watson is retiring at the 2021 election. Albany is Labor’s 10th most marginal seat with a margin on 5.9%. Without Watson, can Labor hold Albany?<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-battle-for-albany/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">The Battle for Albany</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2021/02/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_67f7926893492" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Name*<br /><input type="text" name="esfpx_name" class="ig_es_form_field_name" placeholder="" value="" required="required" /></label></div><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Email*<br /><input class="es_required_field es_txt_email ig_es_form_field_email" 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