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Peak minerals - Wikipedia
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class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Resource_depletion_and_recoverability" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Resource_depletion_and_recoverability"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.1</span> <span>Resource depletion and recoverability</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Resource_depletion_and_recoverability-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Peak_oil" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Peak_oil"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.2</span> <span>Peak oil</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Peak_oil-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-As_extrapolating_peak_oil" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#As_extrapolating_peak_oil"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3</span> <span>As extrapolating peak oil</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-As_extrapolating_peak_oil-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past;_costly_and_difficult_in_future" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past;_costly_and_difficult_in_future"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Cheap and easy in the past; costly and difficult in future</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past;_costly_and_difficult_in_future-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Cheap and easy in the past; costly and difficult in future subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past;_costly_and_difficult_in_future-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Benefits_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Benefits_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Benefits from dependence on the resource sector</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Benefits_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Threats_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Threats_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Threats from dependence on the resource sector</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Threats_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Mineral_supply_and_demand" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Mineral_supply_and_demand"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.1</span> <span>Mineral supply and demand</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Mineral_supply_and_demand-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Economic_scarcity_as_a_constraint_to_mineral_supply" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Economic_scarcity_as_a_constraint_to_mineral_supply"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.2</span> <span>Economic scarcity as a constraint to mineral supply</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Economic_scarcity_as_a_constraint_to_mineral_supply-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Demand_for_minerals" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Demand_for_minerals"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.3</span> <span>Demand for minerals</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Demand_for_minerals-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Future_production" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Future_production"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Future production</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Future_production-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Social_context" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Social_context"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Social context</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Social_context-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" 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dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Point in time of largest mineral production</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1251242444">.mw-parser-output .ambox{border:1px solid #a2a9b1;border-left:10px solid #36c;background-color:#fbfbfb;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+link+.ambox{margin-top:-1px}html body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .ambox.mbox-small-left{margin:4px 1em 4px 0;overflow:hidden;width:238px;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em}.mw-parser-output .ambox-speedy{border-left:10px solid #b32424;background-color:#fee7e6}.mw-parser-output .ambox-delete{border-left:10px solid #b32424}.mw-parser-output .ambox-content{border-left:10px solid #f28500}.mw-parser-output .ambox-style{border-left:10px solid #fc3}.mw-parser-output .ambox-move{border-left:10px solid #9932cc}.mw-parser-output .ambox-protection{border-left:10px solid #a2a9b1}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-text{border:none;padding:0.25em 0.5em;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image{border:none;padding:2px 0 2px 0.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-imageright{border:none;padding:2px 0.5em 2px 0;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-empty-cell{border:none;padding:0;width:1px}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image-div{width:52px}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .ambox{margin:0 10%}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .ambox{display:none!important}}</style><table class="box-More_citations_needed plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content ambox-Refimprove" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div class="mbox-image-div"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Question_book-new.svg" 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Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.<br /><small><span class="plainlinks"><i>Find sources:</i> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?as_eq=wikipedia&q=%22Peak+minerals%22">"Peak minerals"</a> – <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?tbm=nws&q=%22Peak+minerals%22+-wikipedia&tbs=ar:1">news</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?&q=%22Peak+minerals%22&tbs=bkt:s&tbm=bks">newspapers</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?tbs=bks:1&q=%22Peak+minerals%22+-wikipedia">books</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22Peak+minerals%22">scholar</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/action/doBasicSearch?Query=%22Peak+minerals%22&acc=on&wc=on">JSTOR</a></span></small></span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">November 2015</span>)</i></span><span class="hide-when-compact"><i> (<small><a href="/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal" title="Help:Maintenance template removal">Learn how and when to remove this message</a></small>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p class="mw-empty-elt"> </p><p><b>Peak minerals</b> marks the point in time when the largest production of a mineral will occur in an area, with production declining in subsequent years. While most mineral resources will not be exhausted in the near future, global extraction and production has become more challenging.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Miners have found ways over time to extract deeper and lower grade ores<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> with lower production costs. More than anything else, declining average ore grades are indicative of ongoing technological shifts that have enabled inclusion of more 'complex' processing – in social and environmental terms <i>as well as</i> economic – and structural changes in the minerals exploration industry<sup id="cite_ref-:0_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and these have been accompanied by significant increases in identified Mineral Reserves.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definition">Definition</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Definition"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The concept of peak minerals offers a useful model for representing the changing impacts associated with processing declining resource qualities in the lead up to, and following, peak mineral production in a particular region within a certain time-frame.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Peak minerals provides an analytical framework within which the economic, social and environmental trajectories of a particular <a href="/wiki/Mining" title="Mining">mining industry</a> can be explored in relation to the continuing (and often increasing) production of <a href="/wiki/Mineral_resource_classification" title="Mineral resource classification">mineral resources</a>. It focuses consideration on the change in costs and impacts associated with processing easily accessible, lower cost ores before peak production of an individual mine or group of mines for a given mineral. It outlines how the economy might respond as <a href="/wiki/Mineral_processing" title="Mineral processing">processing</a> becomes characterised by higher costs as the peak is approached and passed. Issues associated with the concept of peak minerals include: </p> <ul><li>Average processed ore grades are in global decline for some minerals whilst production is increasing.</li> <li>Average <i>discovered</i> ore grades (e.g., in porphyry copper deposits) have remained remarkably steady over the last 150 years.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Structural changes in the minerals exploration industry and the recent focus on "<a href="/wiki/Brownfield_land" title="Brownfield land">brownfields</a>" exploration<sup id="cite_ref-:0_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:1_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Mining is extending to deeper, more remote deposits.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (November 2015)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>Individual mines or mining provinces can eventually become exhausted, though changes in demand and mining technology can act to prolong their productive lives.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (November 2015)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Resource_depletion_and_recoverability">Resource depletion and recoverability</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Resource depletion and recoverability"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Recycling#Energy_and_material_flows" title="Recycling">Recycling § Energy and material flows</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Mining#Metal_reserves_and_recycling" title="Mining">Mining § Metal reserves and recycling</a></div> <p>Giurco et al. (2009)<sup id="cite_ref-Giurco,_D._2009_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Giurco,_D._2009-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> indicate that the debate about how to analytically describe <a href="/wiki/Resource_depletion" title="Resource depletion">resource depletion</a> is ongoing. Traditionally, a fixed stock paradigm has been applied, but Tilton and Lagos (2007)<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> suggest using an <a href="/wiki/Opportunity_cost" title="Opportunity cost">opportunity cost</a> paradigm is better because the usable resource quantity is represented by price and the opportunity cost of using the resource. Unlike energy minerals such as coal or oil – or minerals used in a dissipative or <a href="/wiki/Metabolism" title="Metabolism">metabolic</a> fashion like <a href="/wiki/Phosphorus" title="Phosphorus">phosphorus</a><sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> – most non-energy minerals and metals are unlikely to run out. Metals are inherently <a href="/wiki/Recycling" title="Recycling">recyclable</a> and more readily recoverable from end uses where the metal is used in a pure form and not transformed or dissipated; in addition, metal ore is accessible at a range of different grades. So, although metals are not facing exhaustion, they have become more challenging to obtain in the quantities that society demands, and the energy, environmental and social cost of acquiring them could constrain future increases in production and usage.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Peak_oil">Peak oil</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Peak oil"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Given increasing global population and rapidly growing consumption (especially in China and India), frameworks for the analysis of <a href="/wiki/Resource_depletion" title="Resource depletion">resource depletion</a> can assist in developing appropriate responses. The most popular contemporary focus for resource depletion is oil (or petroleum) resources. In 1956, oil geologist <a href="/wiki/M._King_Hubbert" title="M. King Hubbert">M. King Hubbert</a> famously predicted that conventional oil production from the lower 48 (mainland) states of the United States would peak by 1970 and then enter a terminal decline.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This model was accurate in predicting the peak (although the peak year was 1971). This phenomenon is now commonly called '<a href="/wiki/Peak_oil" title="Peak oil">peak oil</a>', with peak production curves known as <a href="/wiki/Hubbert_curve" title="Hubbert curve">Hubbert Curves</a>. </p><p>The concept of peak minerals is an extrapolation and extension of Hubbert's model of peak oil. Although widely cited for his predictions of peak oil, Hubbert intended to explore an appropriate response to the finite supply of oil, and framed this work within the context of increasing global population and rapidly growing consumption of oil. </p><p>In establishing the peak oil model, Hubbert was primarily focused on arguing that a planned transition was required to ensure future energy services. </p><p>World gold production has experienced multiple peaks due to new discoveries and new technologies. Many mineral resources have exhibited logistic Hubbert-type production trends in the past, but have transitioned to exponential growth during the last 10–15 years, precluding reliable estimates of reserves from within the framework of the logistic model.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="As_extrapolating_peak_oil">As extrapolating peak oil</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: As extrapolating peak oil"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Only limited substantive work is currently undertaken to examine how the concepts and assumptions of peak oil can be extrapolated so as to be applied to minerals in general.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> When extrapolating peak oil to account for peak minerals and then utilising this analytical 'peak framework' as a general model of resource exploitation, several factors must be taken into consideration: </p> <ul><li>Accurate estimates of easily accessible proven reserves;</li> <li>Political and market stability;</li> <li>Affordable, stable prices for consumers and enticing profits for producers;</li> <li>Exponentially increasing consumption;</li> <li>Independent producers focused only on maximising their immediate profits;</li> <li>Perceived abundance of and availability of other reserves (e.g. US, Middle Eastern).</li></ul> <p>In understanding how these factors are important for modelling peak minerals, it is important to consider assumptions concerning the modelling process, assumptions about production (particularly economic conditions), and the ability to make accurate estimates of resource quantity and quality and the potential of future exploration. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past;_costly_and_difficult_in_future"><span id="Cheap_and_easy_in_the_past.3B_costly_and_difficult_in_future"></span>Cheap and easy in the past; costly and difficult in future</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Cheap and easy in the past; costly and difficult in future"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Peak production poses a problem for resource rich countries like Australia, which have developed a <a href="/wiki/Comparative_advantage" title="Comparative advantage">comparative advantage</a> in the global resources sector, which may diminish in the future. The costs of mining, once primarily reflected in economic terms, are increasingly being considered in social and environmental terms, although these are yet to meaningfully inform long-term decision-making in the sector. Such consideration is particularly important if the industry is seeking to operate in a <a href="/wiki/Social_sustainability" class="mw-redirect" title="Social sustainability">socially</a>, <a href="/wiki/Sustainability" title="Sustainability">environmentally</a> and <a href="/wiki/Sustainability#Economic_sustainability" title="Sustainability">economically</a> sustainable manner into the next 30–50 years.<sup id="cite_ref-Giurco,_D._2009_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Giurco,_D._2009-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Benefits_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector">Benefits from dependence on the resource sector</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Benefits from dependence on the resource sector"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In 2008–09, minerals and fuel exports made up around 56% of Australia's total exports. Consequently, minerals play a major role in Australia's capacity to participate in international trade and contribute to the international strength of its currency.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Whether this situation contributes to Australia's economic wealth or weakens its economic position is contested. While those supporting Australia's reliance on minerals cite the theory of comparative advantage, opponents suggest a reliance on resources leads to issues associated with '<a href="/wiki/Dutch_disease" title="Dutch disease">Dutch disease</a>' (a decline in other sectors of the economy associated with natural resource exploitation) and ultimately the hypothesised ‘<a href="/wiki/Resource_curse" title="Resource curse">resource curse</a>’. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Threats_from_dependence_on_the_resource_sector">Threats from dependence on the resource sector</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Threats from dependence on the resource sector"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Contrary to the theory of the comparative advantage, many mineral resource-rich countries are often outperformed by resource-poor countries.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This paradox, where natural resource abundance actually has a negative impact on the growth of the national economy is termed the <a href="/wiki/Resource_curse" title="Resource curse">resource curse</a>. After an initial economic boost, brought on by the booming minerals economy, negative impacts linked to the boom surpass the positive, causing economic activity to fall below the pre-resource windfall level. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Mineral_supply_and_demand">Mineral supply and demand</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Mineral supply and demand"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The economics of a commodity are generally determined by <a href="/wiki/Supply_and_demand" title="Supply and demand">supply and demand</a>. Mineral supply and demand will change dramatically as all costs (economic, technological, social and environmental) associated with production, processing and transportation of minerals increases with falling ore grades. These costs will ultimately influence the ability of companies to supply commodities, and the ability of consumers to purchase them. It is likely that social and environmental issues will increasingly drive economic costs associated with supply and demand patterns.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Jenkins,_H._2006_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jenkins,_H._2006-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Economic_scarcity_as_a_constraint_to_mineral_supply">Economic scarcity as a constraint to mineral supply</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Economic scarcity as a constraint to mineral supply"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>As neither overall stocks nor future markets are known, most economists normally do not consider physical scarcity as a good indicator for the availability of a resource for society.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Economic scarcity has subsequently been introduced as a more valid approach to assess the supply of minerals. There are three commonly accepted measures for <a href="/wiki/Scarcity" title="Scarcity">economic scarcity</a>: the user costs associated with a resource, the real price of the resource, and the resource's extraction costs. These measures have historically externalised impacts of a social or environmental nature – so might be considered inaccurate measures of economic scarcity given increased environmental or social scrutiny in the mining industry. Internalisation of these costs will contribute to economic scarcity by increasing the user costs, the real price of the resource, and its extraction costs.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2014)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Demand_for_minerals">Demand for minerals</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Demand for minerals"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>While the ability to supply a commodity determines its availability as has been demonstrated, demand for minerals can also influence their availability. How minerals are used, where they are distributed and how, trade barriers, downstream use industries, substitution and recycling can potentially influence the demand for minerals, and ultimately their availability. While economists are cognisant of the role of demand as an availability driver, historically they have not considered factors besides depletion as having a long-term impact on mineral availability.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Future_production">Future production</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Future production"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>There are a variety of indicators that show production will become more difficult and more expensive. Key environmental indicators that reflect increasingly expensive production are primarily associated with the decline in average ore grades of many minerals.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This has consequences in mineral exploration, for mine depth, the energy intensity of mining, and the increasing quantity of waste rock. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Social_context">Social context</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Social context"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Different social issues must be addressed through time in relation to peak minerals at a national scale, and other issues manifest on the local scale. </p><p>As global mining companies seek to expand operations to access larger mining areas, competition with farmers for land and for scare water is likely to increase.<sup id="cite_ref-Jenkins,_H._2006_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jenkins,_H._2006-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Negative relationships with near neighbours influence companies' ability to establish and maintain a <i>social license to operate</i> within the community.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Access to identified resources is likely to become harder as questions are asked about the benefit from the regional economic development mining is reputed to bring. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Peak_coal" title="Peak coal">Peak coal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peak_copper" class="mw-redirect" title="Peak copper">Peak copper</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peak_phosphorus" class="mw-redirect" title="Peak phosphorus">Peak phosphorus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peak_gas" title="Peak gas">Peak gas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asteroid_mining" title="Asteroid mining">Asteroid mining</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Automated_mining" title="Automated mining">Automated mining</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_effects_of_mining" class="mw-redirect" title="Environmental effects of mining">Environmental effects of mining</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_impact_assessment" title="Environmental impact assessment">Environmental impact assessment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mining_law" title="Mining law">Mining law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_resource" title="Natural resource">Natural resource</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Mudd, G M, 2010, The Environmental Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Mega-Trends and Looming Constraints. Resources Policy, <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.resourpol.2009.12.001">10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.12.001</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKlare2012" class="citation book cs1">Klare, M. T. (2012). <span class="id-lock-registration" title="Free registration required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/isbn_9780805091267"><i>The Race for What's Left</i></a></span>. 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ACARP Project C14047, Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, Centre for Water in the Minerals Industry, and the <a href="/wiki/Australian_Coal_Association" title="Australian Coal Association">Australian Coal Association</a> Research Program.</span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peak_minerals&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.isf.uts.edu.au"><i>The Institute for Sustainable Futures</i></a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://resourcefutures.net.au/sites/default/files/resourcefutures.net.au/UTS-RR-1-2-MinFutures_Peak_Min_Review_FINAL4.pdf"><i>Peak Minerals in Australia: a review of changing impacts and benefits</i> </a><sup class="noprint Inline-Template"><span style="white-space: nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Link_rot" title="Wikipedia:Link rot"><span title=" Dead link tagged July 2024">permanent dead link</span></a></i><span style="visibility:hidden; color:transparent; padding-left:2px">‍</span>]</span></sup></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpol/"><i>The Environmental Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Mega-Trends and Looming Constraints (Gavin Mudd, 2010)</i></a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://civil.eng.monash.edu.au/about/staff/muddpersonal/2008-NZ-SustEngSci-Mudd-Ward-SustConstraints-v-Peak-Minerals.pdf"><i>Will Sustainability Constraints Cause 'Peak Minerals'?</i></a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100702230508/http://civil.eng.monash.edu.au/about/staff/muddpersonal/2008-NZ-SustEngSci-Mudd-Ward-SustConstraints-v-Peak-Minerals.pdf">Archived</a> 2 July 2010 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/2100/926/giurcoetal2009mineralfuturesdiscussion.pdf?sequence=1"><i>Mineral Futures Discussion Paper: Sustainability Issues, Challenges and Opportunities</i></a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://phosphorusfutures.net/"><i>The Global Phosphorus Research Initiative</i></a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3451"><i>The Oil Drum: Ugo Bardi</i></a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1107.4753"><i>Peak Nothing: Recent Trends in Mineral Resource Production</i></a></li></ul> <div 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class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth" title="Atmosphere of Earth">Air</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Air_pollution" title="Air pollution">Pollution / quality</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/National_Ambient_Air_Quality_Standards" title="National Ambient Air Quality Standards">Ambient standards <span style="font-size:85%;">(US)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Air_quality_index" title="Air quality index">Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Indoor_air_quality" title="Indoor air quality">Indoor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Air_quality_law" title="Air quality law">Law</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)" title="Clean Air Act (United States)">Clean Air Act <span style="font-size:85%;">(US)</span></a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;">Emissions</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Airshed" title="Airshed">Airshed</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emissions_trading" title="Emissions trading">Trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reducing_emissions_from_deforestation_and_forest_degradation" class="mw-redirect" title="Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation">Deforestation (REDD)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Energy" title="Energy">Energy</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bioenergy" title="Bioenergy">Bio</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_law" title="Energy law">Law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_resources" class="mw-redirect" title="Energy resources">Resources</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuels</a> (<a href="/wiki/Fuel_gas" title="Fuel gas">gas</a>, <a href="/wiki/Peak_coal" title="Peak coal">peak coal</a>, <a href="/wiki/Peak_gas" title="Peak gas">peak gas</a>, <a href="/wiki/Peak_oil" title="Peak oil">peak oil</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Geothermal_energy" title="Geothermal energy">Geothermal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hydropower" title="Hydropower">Hydro</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Solar_energy" title="Solar energy">Solar</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sunlight" title="Sunlight">sunlight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shade_(shadow)" title="Shade (shadow)">shade</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wind_power" title="Wind power">Wind</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Land" title="Land">Land</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Agricultural_land" title="Agricultural land">Agricultural</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arable_land" title="Arable land">arable</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Peak_farmland" title="Peak farmland">peak farmland</a></li></ul></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_degradation" title="Land degradation">Degradation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Field_(agriculture)" title="Field (agriculture)">Field</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Landscape" title="Landscape">Landscape</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cityscape" title="Cityscape">cityscape</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seascape" title="Seascape">seascape</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soundscape" title="Soundscape">soundscape</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Viewshed" title="Viewshed">viewshed</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_law" title="Land law">Law</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Property_law" title="Property law">property</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_management" title="Land management">Management</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Habitat_conservation" title="Habitat conservation">habitat conservation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mineral" title="Mineral">Minerals</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gemstone" title="Gemstone">gemstone</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Industrial_mineral" title="Industrial mineral">industrial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ore" title="Ore">ore</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Metal" title="Metal">metal</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mining" title="Mining">mining</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mining_law" title="Mining law">law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sand_mining" title="Sand mining">sand</a></li></ul></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">peak</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Peak_copper" class="mw-redirect" title="Peak copper">copper</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peak_phosphorus" class="mw-redirect" title="Peak phosphorus">phosphorus</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mineral_rights" title="Mineral rights">rights</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soil" title="Soil">Soil</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Soil_conservation" title="Soil conservation">conservation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soil_fertility" title="Soil fertility">fertility</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soil_health" title="Soil health">health</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soil_resilience" title="Soil resilience">resilience</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use" title="Land use">Use</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Land-use_planning" title="Land-use planning">planning</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Open_space_reserve" title="Open space reserve">reserve</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Life" title="Life">Life</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Biodiversity" title="Biodiversity">Biodiversity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bioprospecting" title="Bioprospecting">Bioprospecting</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Biopiracy" title="Biopiracy">biopiracy</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biosphere" title="Biosphere">Biosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bushfood" class="mw-redirect" title="Bushfood">Bushfood</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bushmeat" title="Bushmeat">Bushmeat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fishery" title="Fishery">Fisheries</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fisheries_law" title="Fisheries law">law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fisheries_management" title="Fisheries management">management</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest" title="Forest">Forests</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Forest_genetic_resources" title="Forest genetic resources">genetic resources</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forestry_law" title="Forestry law">law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_management" title="Forest management">management</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Non-timber_forest_product" title="Non-timber forest product">non-timber products</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Game_(food)" class="mw-redirect" title="Game (food)">Game</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Game_law" title="Game law">law</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marine_conservation" title="Marine conservation">Marine conservation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Meadow" title="Meadow">Meadow</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pasture" title="Pasture">Pasture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Plant" title="Plant">Plants</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant_Treaty" class="mw-redirect" title="Plant Treaty">FAO Plant Treaty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Food" title="Food">food</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Plant_genetic_resources" title="Plant genetic resources">genetic resources</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gene_bank" title="Gene bank">gene banks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_plants_used_in_herbalism" title="List of plants used in herbalism">herbal medicines</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/UPOV" class="mw-redirect" title="UPOV">UPOV Convention</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wood" title="Wood">wood</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rangeland" title="Rangeland">Rangeland</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seed_bank" title="Seed bank">Seed bank</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wildlife" title="Wildlife">Wildlife</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Wildlife_conservation" title="Wildlife conservation">conservation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wildlife_management" title="Wildlife management">management</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Water" title="Water">Water</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;">Types / location</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aquifer" title="Aquifer">Aquifer</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aquifer_storage_and_recovery" title="Aquifer storage and recovery">storage and recovery</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drinking_water" title="Drinking water">Drinking</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fresh_water" title="Fresh water">Fresh</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Groundwater" title="Groundwater">Groundwater</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Groundwater_pollution" title="Groundwater pollution">pollution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Groundwater_recharge" title="Groundwater recharge">recharge</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Groundwater_remediation" title="Groundwater remediation">remediation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hydrosphere" title="Hydrosphere">Hydrosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ice" title="Ice">Ice</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Iceberg" title="Iceberg">bergs</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Glacier" title="Glacier">glacial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polar_ice_cap" title="Polar ice cap">polar</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Irrigation" title="Irrigation">Irrigation</a> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Huerta" title="Huerta">huerta</a></i></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marine_resources" title="Marine resources">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rain" title="Rain">Rain</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Rainwater_harvesting" title="Rainwater harvesting">harvesting</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stormwater" title="Stormwater">Stormwater</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Surface_water" title="Surface water">Surface water</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sewage" title="Sewage">Sewage</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Reclaimed_water" title="Reclaimed water">reclaimed water</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drainage_basin" title="Drainage basin">Watershed</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;">Aspects</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Desalination" title="Desalination">Desalination</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Floods</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_law" class="mw-redirect" title="Water law">Law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Leaching_(agriculture)" title="Leaching (agriculture)">Leaching</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sanitation" title="Sanitation">Sanitation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Improved_sanitation" title="Improved sanitation">improved</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Security</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_supply" title="Water supply">Supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_efficiency" title="Water efficiency">Efficiency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_conflict" title="Water conflict">Conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_conservation" title="Water conservation">Conservation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peak_water" title="Peak water">Peak water</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_pollution" title="Water pollution">Pollution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_privatization" title="Water privatization">Privatization</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_quality" title="Water quality">Quality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_right" title="Water right">Right</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_resources" title="Water resources">Resources</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Improved_water_source" title="Improved water source">improved</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_resource_policy" title="Water resource policy">policy</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Related</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Commons" title="Commons">Commons</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Enclosure" title="Enclosure">enclosure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_commons" title="Global commons">global</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Common_land" title="Common land">land</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons" title="Tragedy of the commons">tragedy of</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_resource_economics" title="Natural resource economics">Economics</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_economics" title="Ecological economics">ecological</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_(economics)" title="Land (economics)">land</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem_services" class="mw-redirect" title="Ecosystem services">Ecosystem services</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Exploitation_of_natural_resources" title="Exploitation of natural resources">Exploitation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Overexploitation" title="Overexploitation">overexploitation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day" title="Earth Overshoot Day">Earth Overshoot Day</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_resource_management" title="Natural resource management">Management</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_management" title="Adaptive management">adaptive</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_capital" title="Natural capital">Natural capital</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Natural_capital_accounting" title="Natural capital accounting">accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_good" title="Environmental good">good</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_heritage" title="Natural heritage">Natural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature_reserve" title="Nature reserve">Nature reserve</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Remnant_natural_area" title="Remnant natural area">remnant natural area</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systems_ecology" title="Systems ecology">Systems ecology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_ecology" title="Urban ecology">Urban ecology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wilderness" title="Wilderness">Wilderness</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Resource" title="Resource">Resource</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Common-pool_resource" title="Common-pool resource">Common-pool</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Conflict_resource" class="mw-redirect" title="Conflict resource">Conflict <span style="font-size:85%;">(perpetuation)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_curse" title="Resource curse">Curse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_depletion" title="Resource depletion">Depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_extraction" class="mw-redirect" title="Resource extraction">Extraction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_nationalism" title="Resource nationalism">Nationalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_resource" title="Renewable resource">Renewable</a> / <a href="/wiki/Non-renewable_resource" title="Non-renewable resource">Non-renewable</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:7.0em;font-weight:normal;">Politics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Oil_war" title="Oil war">Oil war</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Petrostate" title="Petrostate">Petrostate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_war" title="Resource war">Resource war</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Category"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/16px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/23px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/31px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /></span></span> <a href="/wiki/Category:Natural_resources" title="Category:Natural resources">Category</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236075235"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Population682" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239400231"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Population" title="Template:Population"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Population" title="Template talk:Population"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Population" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Population"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Population682" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Population" title="Population">Population</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Major topics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world" title="Demographics of the world">Demographics of the world</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demographic_transition" title="Demographic transition">Demographic transition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population" title="Estimates of historical world population">Estimates of historical world population</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_growth" title="Population growth">Population growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_momentum" title="Population momentum">Population momentum</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth" class="mw-redirect" title="Projections of population growth">Projections of population growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_population" title="World population">World population</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Population_biology" title="Population biology">Population<br />biology</a></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Population_decline" title="Population decline">Population decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_density" title="Population density">Population density</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Physiological_density" title="Physiological density">Physiological density</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_dynamics" title="Population dynamics">Population dynamics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_model" title="Population model">Population model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_pyramid" title="Population pyramid">Population pyramid</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Population_ecology" title="Population ecology">Population<br />ecology</a></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Biocapacity" title="Biocapacity">Biocapacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carrying_capacity" title="Carrying capacity">Carrying capacity</a></li> <li><span class="nowrap"><a href="/wiki/I_%3D_PAT" title="I = PAT">I = P × A × T</a></span></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kaya_identity" title="Kaya identity">Kaya identity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model" title="Malthusian growth model">Malthusian growth model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overshoot_(population)" title="Overshoot (population)">Overshoot (population)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World3" title="World3">World3 model</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Society and<br /> population</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Eugenics" title="Eugenics">Eugenics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dysgenics" title="Dysgenics"><i>Dys</i>genics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_overpopulation" title="Human overpopulation">Human overpopulation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Malthusianism" title="Malthusianism">Malthusian catastrophe</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_population_planning" title="Human population planning">Human population planning</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Compulsory_sterilization" title="Compulsory sterilization">Compulsory sterilization</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Family_planning" title="Family planning">Family planning</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/One-child_policy" title="One-child policy">One-child policy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Two-child_policy" title="Two-child policy">Two-child policy</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overconsumption_(economics)" title="Overconsumption (economics)">Overconsumption</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_demography" title="Political demography">Political demography</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_ethics" title="Population ethics">Population ethics</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Antinatalism" title="Antinatalism">Antinatalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mere_addition_paradox" title="Mere addition paradox">Mere addition paradox</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natalism" title="Natalism">Natalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Non-identity_problem" class="mw-redirect" title="Non-identity problem">Non-identity problem</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reproductive_rights" title="Reproductive rights">Reproductive rights</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_population" title="Sustainable population">Sustainable population</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero_population_growth" title="Zero population growth">Zero population growth</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Publications</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0;font-style:italic;"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Population_and_Environment" title="Population and Environment">Population and Environment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_and_Development_Review" title="Population and Development Review">Population and Development Review</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Lists</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Population_and_housing_censuses_by_country" title="Population and housing censuses by country">Population and housing censuses by country</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_largest_cities" title="List of largest cities">Largest cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_population_milestones" title="World population milestones">World population milestones</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Day_of_Six_Billion" title="Day of Six Billion">6 billion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Day_of_Seven_Billion" title="Day of Seven Billion">7</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Day_of_Eight_Billion" title="Day of Eight Billion">8</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_population_concern_organizations" title="List of population concern organizations">Population concern organizations</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;">Events and<br />organizations</div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/7_Billion_Actions" title="7 Billion Actions">7 Billion Actions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Church_of_Euthanasia" title="Church of Euthanasia">Church of Euthanasia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_Conference_on_Population_and_Development" title="International Conference on Population and Development">International Conference on Population and Development</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_Action_International" title="Population Action International">Population Action International</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_Connection" title="Population Connection">Population Connection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_Matters" title="Population Matters">Population Matters</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Population_Fund" title="United Nations Population Fund">United Nations Population Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_world_population_conferences" title="United Nations world population conferences">United Nations world population conferences</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Voluntary_Human_Extinction_Movement" title="Voluntary Human Extinction Movement">Voluntary Human Extinction Movement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_Population_Conference" title="World Population Conference">World Population Conference</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_Population_Day" title="World Population Day">World Population Day</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_Population_Foundation" title="World Population Foundation">World Population Foundation</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Related topics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bennett%27s_law" title="Bennett's law">Bennett's law</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Revolution" title="Green Revolution">Green Revolution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_the_environment" title="Human impact on the environment">Human impact on the environment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_migration" title="Human migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainability" title="Sustainability">Sustainability</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow hlist" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Commons page"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/12px-Commons-logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="12" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/18px-Commons-logo.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/24px-Commons-logo.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1024" data-file-height="1376" /></span></span> <b><a 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