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How the Believability Gap Helps Trump - The Atlantic
<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en" dir="ltr"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1"/><link rel="icon" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/favicon-3888b0e329526a975703e3059a02b92d.ico"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-default-b504d70343a9438df64c32ce339c7ebc.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="76x76" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-76x76-d5accc11b8265af76495fbfa9d38dd3b.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="120x120" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-120x120-419ba228184c040a691628d3dd82c206.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="152x152" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-152x152-aafde20dd981a38fcd549b29b2b3b785.png"/><meta name="application-name" content="theatlantic"/><meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#FFFFFF"/><meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-default-b504d70343a9438df64c32ce339c7ebc.png"/><meta property="og:site_name" content="The Atlantic"/><meta property="og:locale" content="en_US"/><meta property="fb:admins" content="577048155,17301937"/><meta property="fb:app_id" content="100770816677686"/><meta property="fb:pages" content="29259828486,1468531833474495,1061579677251147,457711054591520,370457103090695,1631141167169115,148681772342453,1510507419185410,128344747344340,128377530562508,236061986423933"/><meta name="p:domain_verify" content="68e1a0361a557708fefc992f3309ed70"/><meta name="twitter:site" content="@theatlantic"/><meta name="twitter:domain" content="theatlantic.com"/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"WebSite","name":"The Atlantic","url":"https://www.theatlantic.com","inLanguage":"en-US","issn":"1072-7825","potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":"https://www.theatlantic.com/search/?q={q}","query-input":"required name=q"}}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Organization","@id":"https://www.theatlantic.com/#publisher","name":"The Atlantic","url":"https://www.theatlantic.com","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","unitCode":"E37","value":224},"height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","unitCode":"E37","value":224},"url":"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/files/atlantic-logo--224x224.png"},"sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/TheAtlantic","https://twitter.com/theatlantic"]}</script><style id="_vis_opt_path_hide">#paywall,#nonMeteredNudge,#gate {opacity:0;}</style><title>How the Believability Gap Helps Trump - The Atlantic</title><meta name="description" content="Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through."/><meta property="krux:title" content="How the Believability Gap Helps Trump - The Atlantic"/><meta property="krux:description" content="Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through."/><link rel="canonical" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/trump-believability-gap/680201/"/><link rel="image_src" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/RMmoX4tEABu_mlUmiyn3gU_956M=/0x102:4792x2598/1200x625/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg"/><meta property="article:author" content="https://www.facebook.com/https://www.facebook.com/david-a-graham-318249352182"/><meta name="author" content="David A. Graham"/><link rel="ia:markup_url" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/facebook-instant/article/680201/"/><meta property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/TheAtlantic/"/><meta property="article:opinion" content="false"/><meta property="article:content_tier" content="metered"/><meta property="article:tag" content="ideas"/><meta property="article:section" content="Ideas"/><meta property="article:published_time" content="2024-10-09T14:46:22Z"/><meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-10-16T21:46:22Z"/><meta name="robots" content="index, follow, max-image-preview:large"/><meta property="og:title" content="The Trump Believability Gap"/><meta property="og:description" content="Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through."/><meta property="og:url" content="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/trump-believability-gap/680201/"/><meta property="og:type" content="article"/><meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/RMmoX4tEABu_mlUmiyn3gU_956M=/0x102:4792x2598/1200x625/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg"/><meta property="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta name="FacebookShareMessage" content="“The paradox of running a campaign against Donald Trump is that you have to convince voters that he is both a liar and deadly serious,” writes @GrahamDavidA. “Trump exists in a strange zone where voters hear what he’s saying and then largely discount it”:"/><meta name="TwitterShareMessage" content="“The paradox of running a campaign against Donald Trump is that you have to convince voters that he is both a liar and deadly serious,” writes @GrahamDavidA. “Trump exists in a strange zone where voters hear what he’s saying and then largely discount it”:"/><link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="The Atlantic" href="/feed/all/"/><link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Best of The Atlantic" href="/feed/best-of/"/><meta name="referrer" content="unsafe-url"/><meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"/><meta name="apple-mobile-web-status-bar-style" content="black"/><meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-title" content="The Atlantic"/><meta name="keywords" itemID="#keywords"/><meta name="news_keywords"/><meta name="sailthru.title" content="The Trump Believability Gap"/><meta name="sailthru.description" content="Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through."/><meta name="sailthru.tags" content="2024-elections,politics,ideas,author-david-a-graham"/><meta name="sailthru.date" content="2024-10-09T14:46:22Z"/><link rel="preload" as="font" type="font/woff2" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/packages/fonts/garamond/AGaramondPro-Regular.woff2" crossorigin=""/><link rel="preload" as="font" type="font/woff2" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/packages/fonts/graphik/Graphik-Regular-Web.woff2" crossorigin=""/><link rel="preload" as="font" type="font/woff2" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/packages/fonts/graphik/Graphik-Semibold-Web.woff2" crossorigin=""/><link rel="preload" as="font" type="font/woff2" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/packages/fonts/logic/LogicMonospace-Medium.woff2" crossorigin=""/><link rel="preload" as="font" type="font/woff2" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/packages/fonts/logic/LogicMonospace-Regular.woff2" crossorigin=""/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"How the Believability Gap Helps Trump","alternativeHeadline":"The Trump Believability Gap","description":"Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. 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involving pictures of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden overlaid in a political map" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Rg2MvNA19ll0aThiuJr01VNjWqk=/463x0:1588x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/NtZVDznOjSKq6TgkJEyDpApuCL8=/463x0:1588x1125/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Rg2MvNA19ll0aThiuJr01VNjWqk=/463x0:1588x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 2" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/democrats-2022-error-message/680661/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="2">The Democrats’ 2022 Error Message</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ronald-brownstein/" data-action="click link - project - author 2" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ronald-brownstein/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="2">Ronald Brownstein</a></li><li class="ArticleBentoRecirc_article__drQUh"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleLink__LBkjA"><figure class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleFigure__g9vgl" data-action="click link - project - image 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" data-event-element="image" data-event-position="3"><picture class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articlePicture__wR05Z"><img alt="Back view of two small elephants with a large elephant between them" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/sR99LHH9ebi1kWAbIhYkUSyT3oM=/438x0:1563x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/LOI9tDVj-2Azjkzg15HVncw1w0A=/438x0:1563x1125/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/sR99LHH9ebi1kWAbIhYkUSyT3oM=/438x0:1563x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="3">What Trump Can (And Probably Can’t) Do With His Trifecta</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/russell-berman/" data-action="click link - project - author 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/russell-berman/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="3">Russell Berman</a></li><li class="ArticleBentoRecirc_article__drQUh ArticleBentoRecirc_hideAtBreak__gKcJW"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleLink__LBkjA"><figure class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleFigure__g9vgl" data-action="click link - project - image 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" data-event-element="image" data-event-position="4"><picture class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articlePicture__wR05Z"><img alt="Donald Trump's silhouette" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/jgzMWVEaOg3JgoWLKQ9YppZYskk=/1728x0:4428x2700/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/tdvtin4FaAvPEBfpARDBsTKm_nY=/1728x0:4428x2700/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/jgzMWVEaOg3JgoWLKQ9YppZYskk=/1728x0:4428x2700/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="4">Don’t Give Up on the Truth</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/peter-wehner/" data-action="click link - project - author 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/peter-wehner/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="4">Peter Wehner</a></li></ul></aside><article class="ArticleLayout_article__RHFMN article-content-body"><header class="ArticleHero_root__3w7kV ArticleHero_articleStandard__2tcdv" data-event-module="hero"><div class=""><div class="ArticleHero_defaultArticleLockup__vb8lz"><div class="ArticleHero_rubric__e4rjD"><div class="ArticleRubric_root__HNhbf" id="rubric" data-flatplan-rubric="true"><a class="ArticleRubric_link__nl9hy" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/" data-action="click link - section rubric" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/" data-event-element="rubric">Ideas</a></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_title__PQ4pC"><h1 class="ArticleTitle_root__VrZaG" data-flatplan-title="true">The Trump Believability Gap</h1></div><div class="ArticleHero_dek__EqdkK" data-flatplan-description="true"><p class="ArticleDek_root__P3leE">Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through.</p></div><div class="ArticleHero_byline__iFT6A"><div class="ArticleBylines_root__IBR5V"><address id="byline">By <a class="ArticleBylines_link__kNP4C" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/" data-action="click author - byline" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/" data-event-element="author" data-flatplan-author-link="true">David A. Graham</a></address></div></div></div><div class="ArticleLeadArt_root__nRSLU"><figure class="ArticleLeadFigure_root__Bj81R ArticleLeadFigure_standard__20Izv"><div class="ArticleLeadFigure_media__R1npW" data-flatplan-lead_figure_media="true"><picture><img alt="Two black and white photos of Donald Trump side by side." class="Image_root__XxsOp ArticleLeadArt_image__HZS4B" sizes="(min-width: 976px) 976px, 100vw" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/VYVpoX5CgMXa9TXZ3Uom0joI-us=/0x0:4800x2700/750x422/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg 750w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/RxoLc2HVQlbF-ASctH5gRKY2gKU=/0x0:4800x2700/828x466/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg 828w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/6kzDkzVEWaBuX3bOtwbkYfMyz04=/0x0:4800x2700/960x540/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg 960w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/wm_2GnRDF8XIeJMDVtacVME-0_U=/0x0:4800x2700/976x549/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg 976w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/oSI6OlL7GRVIddCLOAOOK1Tdz8k=/0x0:4800x2700/1952x1098/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg 1952w" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/6kzDkzVEWaBuX3bOtwbkYfMyz04=/0x0:4800x2700/960x540/media/img/mt/2024/10/HR_16088745/original.jpg" id="article-lead-image" width="960" height="540"/></picture></div><figcaption class="ArticleLeadFigure_caption__Byu7W ArticleLeadFigure_standardCaption__PsDkd" data-flatplan-lead_figure_caption="true">Damon Winter / NYT / Redux</figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBar__JbQFj"><div class="ArticleHero_timestamp__bKhcB"><time class="ArticleTimestamp_root__b3bL6" dateTime="2024-10-09T14:46:22Z" data-flatplan-timestamp="true">October 9, 2024</time> </div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBarTools__ZHw8s"><div class="ArticleShare_root__Mq0RB"><button class="ArticleShare_text__oQKBy ArticleShare_shareButton__X0cIe" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls=":R1i5ioomm:" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open Share Menu" data-action="click share - 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Listen to more stories on the Noa app.</p></div><section class="ArticleBody_root__2gF81" data-event-module="article body" data-flatplan-body="true"><div class="ArticleLegacyHtml_root__WFd2I ArticleLegacyHtml_standard__kC_zi"><p data-flatplan-paragraph="true"><small><i>Sign up for </i><a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/sign-up/the-decision-a-2024-newsletter/"><i>The Decision</i></a><i>, a newsletter featuring our 2024 election coverage.</i></small></p></div><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">The paradox of running a campaign against Donald Trump is that you have to convince voters that he is both a liar and deadly serious.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">On the one hand, much of what the Republican presidential nominee says is patently false. Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are not <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/trump-harris-debate-pets-immigrants/679783/">eating cats and dogs</a>; President Joe Biden is not <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/30/donald-trump/trump-said-kemp-couldnt-reach-biden-after-hurrican/">dodging calls</a> from the governor of hurricane-stricken Georgia; crime is <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/trump-elon-musk-crime-statistics-new-big-lie/679868/">not, in fact, on the rise</a>.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">And yet, on the other hand, Trump <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-veterans-day-speech-vermin-reelection/676137/">is not bluffing</a> when it comes to his plans to radically shift the federal government and change the fabric of American life. These include a huge expansion in political-patronage jobs, campaigns of retribution against political adversaries, and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants—all things that Trump has placed at the center of his campaign and that he tried to do in his first term. Trump’s critics talk about these plans not just because of an abstract commitment to democracy—it’s also good politics. Many of these ideas are deeply unpopular, and will motivate voters to oppose Trump.</p><p id="injected-recirculation-link-0" class="ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V" data-view-action="view link - injected link - item 1" data-event-element="injected link" data-event-position="1"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-veterans-day-speech-vermin-reelection/676137/">David A. Graham: Trump isn’t bluffing</a></p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">That’s the theory, at least. But Trump exists in a strange zone where voters hear what he’s saying and then largely discount it, perhaps as a result of his past dissembling, or perhaps because the ideas just seem too extreme to be real. Amanda Carpenter, a former GOP staffer turned Trump critic who now works for the nonprofit Protect Democracy, has dubbed this the “<a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/getting-over-the-believability-gap">believability gap</a>.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">“[These ideas] are out in public. They’re on video. They’re very easy to see and understand,” she told me. “What a lot of people are failing to comprehend is how he would turn that rhetoric into a reality.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">One way to think about the believability gap is to consider Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation–coordinated blueprint for a second Trump term. Such external planning documents are not unusual, <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/project-2025-backfired-trump/679509/">I noted in August</a>, and even given that many of the details in this one are far out of the mainstream, Democrats’ success in turning Project 2025 into a campaign liability is surprising. An <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-project-2025-broadly-known-severely-unpopular-voters-rcna172660?taid=66f46c073cede900019a7abc">NBC News poll</a> late last month found that 57 percent of voters viewed Project 2025 negatively; almost all of this group viewed it very negatively. Even a third of Republicans dislike it. <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Navigator-Update-10.02.2024.pdf">A recent survey</a> from the progressive pollster Navigator found 50 percent disapproval and just 9 percent approval for Project 2025.</p><p id="injected-recirculation-link-1" class="ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V" data-view-action="view link - injected link - item 2" data-event-element="injected link" data-event-position="2"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/project-2025-backfired-trump/679509/">Read: The mistake that could cost Trump the election</a></p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">But the trick is that even though Project 2025 is deeply unpopular, Trump is somewhat immune to the effects if people think he won’t really do the things in it. Lake Research Partners (LRP), a Democratic firm, recently polled swing-state voters about Project 2025. When respondents were asked about specific policies within the document, an important split emerged between how they felt about each idea versus how likely they thought it was to happen. For example, 57 percent were very concerned about cutting programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, but only 33 percent thought that was very likely. Similarly, 46 percent would be very concerned about Trump deploying troops against American citizens, yet only a quarter thought Trump would ever do such a thing—even though Trump showed enthusiasm for doing just that in 2020, including in public statements.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">But the believability gap nearly disappears when it comes to two of the most traditional GOP policy priorities. Even though Trump in 2024 is the most aberrant major-party nominee in American history—outdoing even earlier Trump iterations—the LRP polling finds that voters are very concerned about tax cuts for the wealthy and restrictions on abortion, contraception, and infertility treatments and also think Trump would be very likely to implement those policies.</p><p id="injected-recirculation-link-2" class="ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V" data-view-action="view link - injected link - item 3" data-event-element="injected link" data-event-position="3"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/">David Frum: The danger ahead</a></p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Voters’ dismissal of the likelihood of Trump pursuing his most extreme ideas, Carpenter told me, represents “a failure of imagination and inability to think about how his words could really become operable with the right people around him. It’s sort of unfathomable to a lot of Americans that that’s not exaggerated rhetoric.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">For the Kamala Harris campaign, the believability gap is a challenge: Get people to believe that Trump will pursue the ideas that the public hates. The evidence available to them is substantial. Some of the most extreme ideas in Project 2025, such as liquidating much of the civil service and politicizing the federal government, are things that Trump has already tried to do. As president, he attempted to use the Justice Department to punish political adversaries, closed down investigations into allies, and sought to punish Amazon for negative coverage in <i>The Washington Post</i>, owned by Amazon Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos. (Carpenter has also <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://x.com/amandacarpenter/status/1833217184438571227">pointed to actions</a> taken by Republican state governments as proof of what Trump could achieve.)</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">That helps explain a major shift in Democratic campaign strategy that has become apparent in recent months. When President Joe Biden was the party’s nominee, he frequently spoke about the election as an existential threat to democracy, using high-flown rhetoric. Since replacing him atop the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris has not stopped talking about democracy, but she’s made it much less of a focus, instead emphasizing issues such as abortion and tax cuts—and, yes, Project 2025. People already hate it. The Harris campaign needs them to believe it.</p><div class="ArticleBody_divider__GpNxD" id="article-end"></div></section><div data-event-module="footer"><div class="ArticleWell_root__fueCa"><div data-event-module="author footer" class="ArticleFooter_authorFooter__5NsdY"><div class="SectionHeading_root__3GnqT"><h3 class="SectionHeading_heading__iNkek">About the Author</h3></div><div><div class="ArticleBio_root__ua8zj"><address id="article-writer-0" class="ArticleBio_author__6pDyl" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="1" data-flatplan-bio="true"><div class="ArticleBio_content__O0ZVF"><a class="ArticleBio_headshotContainer__Am2nR" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/" data-event-element="image"><img alt="" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBio_headshot__6Aykd" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/mZNPDjNIollb2AnCKaPgPBWGqHo=/219x0:780x561/120x120/media/None/David_Graham_hedshot_bw/original.jpg" width="60" height="60"/></a><div class="ArticleBio_bioSection__Hef4P"><div data-flatplan-bio="true"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/" class="author-link" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/" data-action="click author - name" >David A. Graham</a> is a staff writer at <em>The Atlantic</em>.</div><div class="ArticleBio_moreStories__LKpwT"><p class="ArticleBio_contentHeading__cmbmT">More Stories</p><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/donald-trump-legal-cases-charges/675531/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="1"><p>The Cases Against Trump: A Guide</p></a><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/pam-bondi-nominated-attorney-general/680768/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="2"><p>Pam Bondi’s Comeback</p></a></div></div></div></address></div></div></div><div class="ArticleTags_root__zS_pT"><div class="ArticleTags_tagTitle__WjjAt">Explore More Topics</div><div><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/joe-biden/">Joe Biden</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/kamala-harris/">Kamala Harris</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/location/ohio/">Ohio</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/organization/republican-party/">Republican Party</a></span></div></div></div><div></div></div><gpt-ad class="GptAd_root__pAvcS ArticleInjector_root__I7x9v s-native s-native--standard s-native--streamline" format="injector" sizes-at-0="mobile-wide,native,house" targeting-pos="injector-most-popular" sizes-at-976="desktop-wide,native,house"></gpt-ad><div class="ArticleInjector_clsAvoider__dqIAm"></div></article><div></div></main><div></div><div></div></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"isLoggedIn":false,"hasPaywallAccess":false,"hasAdFree":false,"pageProps":{"id":"BlogArticle:680201","isTnfCompatible":true,"layout":"standard","hasMeter":true,"url":"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/trump-believability-gap/680201/","dateModified":"2024-10-16T21:46:22Z","__typename":"BlogArticle","notFound":false,"urqlState":{"915125736":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"primaryCategory\":{\"__typename\":\"Channel\"},\"editorialProject\":{\"river\":{\"edges\":[{\"id\":\"PromoEdge:680743\",\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"id\":\"PromoEdge:680661\",\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"id\":\"PromoEdge:680636\",\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"id\":\"PromoEdge:680637\",\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"}],\"__typename\":\"RiverConnection\"},\"__typename\":\"EditorialProject\"},\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"}}"},"928142225":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680201\",\"isTnfCompatible\":true,\"layout\":\"standard\",\"hasMeter\":true,\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/trump-believability-gap/680201/\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-16T21:46:22Z\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"}}"},"2021745665":{"data":"{\"breakingNews\":null}"},"3019782690":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\",\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680201\",\"authors\":[{\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/\",\"displayName\":\"David A. Graham\",\"__typename\":\"Author\",\"id\":\"Author:3431\",\"biography\":{\"default\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/\\\" class=\\\"author-link\\\" data-label=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-a-graham/\\\" data-action=\\\"click author - name\\\" \u003eDavid A. Graham\u003c/a\u003e is a staff writer at \u003cem\u003eThe Atlantic\u003c/em\u003e.\",\"__typename\":\"Biography\"},\"headshot\":{\"width\":120,\"height\":120,\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/mZNPDjNIollb2AnCKaPgPBWGqHo=/219x0:780x561/120x120/media/None/David_Graham_hedshot_bw/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/it40VzMnfeBj4wSoYZQbAzwwlzo=/219x0:780x561/240x240/media/None/David_Graham_hedshot_bw/original.jpg 2x\",\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/mZNPDjNIollb2AnCKaPgPBWGqHo=/219x0:780x561/120x120/media/None/David_Graham_hedshot_bw/original.jpg\",\"__typename\":\"BasicImage\"},\"river\":{\"edges\":[{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0yMiAxMjo0MzowMHw2NzU1MzE=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:675531\",\"title\":\"The Cases Against Trump: A Guide\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/donald-trump-legal-cases-charges/675531/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0yMiAxMTo0OTowMnw2ODA3Njg=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680768\",\"title\":\"Pam Bondi’s Comeback\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/pam-bondi-nominated-attorney-general/680768/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0yMSAxNDoxNDo1MHw2ODA3NDg=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680748\",\"title\":\"Trump’s First Defeat\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/trumps-first-defeat/680748/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"}],\"__typename\":\"RiverConnection\"},\"slug\":\"david-a-graham\",\"socialMedia\":[{\"platform\":\"TWITTER\",\"url\":\"https://twitter.com/GrahamDavidA\",\"__typename\":\"SocialMedia\"},{\"platform\":\"FACEBOOK\",\"url\":\"https://www.facebook.com/david-a-graham-318249352182\",\"__typename\":\"SocialMedia\"},{\"platform\":\"EMAIL\",\"url\":\"dgraham@theatlantic.com\",\"__typename\":\"SocialMedia\"}]}],\"authorContext\":\"\",\"categories\":[],\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ArticleLegacyHtml\",\"tagName\":\"DIV\",\"idAttr\":\"\",\"className\":\"\",\"style\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003cp data-flatplan-paragraph=\\\"true\\\"\u003e\u003csmall\u003e\u003ci\u003eSign up for \u003c/i\u003e\u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/sign-up/the-decision-a-2024-newsletter/\\\"\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Decision\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003ci\u003e, a newsletter featuring our 2024 election coverage.\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/small\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"The paradox of running a campaign against Donald Trump is that you have to convince voters that he is both a liar and deadly serious.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"On the one hand, much of what the Republican presidential nominee says is patently false. Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are not \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/trump-harris-debate-pets-immigrants/679783/\\\"\u003eeating cats and dogs\u003c/a\u003e; President Joe Biden is not \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/30/donald-trump/trump-said-kemp-couldnt-reach-biden-after-hurrican/\\\"\u003edodging calls\u003c/a\u003e from the governor of hurricane-stricken Georgia; crime is \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/trump-elon-musk-crime-statistics-new-big-lie/679868/\\\"\u003enot, in fact, on the rise\u003c/a\u003e.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"And yet, on the other hand, Trump \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-veterans-day-speech-vermin-reelection/676137/\\\"\u003eis not bluffing\u003c/a\u003e when it comes to his plans to radically shift the federal government and change the fabric of American life. These include a huge expansion in political-patronage jobs, campaigns of retribution against political adversaries, and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants—all things that Trump has placed at the center of his campaign and that he tried to do in his first term. Trump’s critics talk about these plans not just because of an abstract commitment to democracy—it’s also good politics. Many of these ideas are deeply unpopular, and will motivate voters to oppose Trump.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentLink\",\"idAttr\":\"injected-recirculation-link-0\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-veterans-day-speech-vermin-reelection/676137/\\\"\u003eDavid A. Graham: Trump isn’t bluffing\u003c/a\u003e\",\"index\":0},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"That’s the theory, at least. But Trump exists in a strange zone where voters hear what he’s saying and then largely discount it, perhaps as a result of his past dissembling, or perhaps because the ideas just seem too extreme to be real. Amanda Carpenter, a former GOP staffer turned Trump critic who now works for the nonprofit Protect Democracy, has dubbed this the “\u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/getting-over-the-believability-gap\\\"\u003ebelievability gap\u003c/a\u003e.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"“[These ideas] are out in public. They’re on video. They’re very easy to see and understand,” she told me. “What a lot of people are failing to comprehend is how he would turn that rhetoric into a reality.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"One way to think about the believability gap is to consider Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation–coordinated blueprint for a second Trump term. Such external planning documents are not unusual, \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/project-2025-backfired-trump/679509/\\\"\u003eI noted in August\u003c/a\u003e, and even given that many of the details in this one are far out of the mainstream, Democrats’ success in turning Project 2025 into a campaign liability is surprising. An \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-project-2025-broadly-known-severely-unpopular-voters-rcna172660?taid=66f46c073cede900019a7abc\\\"\u003eNBC News poll\u003c/a\u003e late last month found that 57 percent of voters viewed Project 2025 negatively; almost all of this group viewed it very negatively. Even a third of Republicans dislike it. \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Navigator-Update-10.02.2024.pdf\\\"\u003eA recent survey\u003c/a\u003e from the progressive pollster Navigator found 50 percent disapproval and just 9 percent approval for Project 2025.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentLink\",\"idAttr\":\"injected-recirculation-link-1\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/project-2025-backfired-trump/679509/\\\"\u003eRead: The mistake that could cost Trump the election\u003c/a\u003e\",\"index\":1},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"But the trick is that even though Project 2025 is deeply unpopular, Trump is somewhat immune to the effects if people think he won’t really do the things in it. Lake Research Partners (LRP), a Democratic firm, recently polled swing-state voters about Project 2025. When respondents were asked about specific policies within the document, an important split emerged between how they felt about each idea versus how likely they thought it was to happen. For example, 57 percent were very concerned about cutting programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, but only 33 percent thought that was very likely. Similarly, 46 percent would be very concerned about Trump deploying troops against American citizens, yet only a quarter thought Trump would ever do such a thing—even though Trump showed enthusiasm for doing just that in 2020, including in public statements.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"But the believability gap nearly disappears when it comes to two of the most traditional GOP policy priorities. Even though Trump in 2024 is the most aberrant major-party nominee in American history—outdoing even earlier Trump iterations—the LRP polling finds that voters are very concerned about tax cuts for the wealthy and restrictions on abortion, contraception, and infertility treatments and also think Trump would be very likely to implement those policies.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentLink\",\"idAttr\":\"injected-recirculation-link-2\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/\\\"\u003eDavid Frum: The danger ahead\u003c/a\u003e\",\"index\":2},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Voters’ dismissal of the likelihood of Trump pursuing his most extreme ideas, Carpenter told me, represents “a failure of imagination and inability to think about how his words could really become operable with the right people around him. It’s sort of unfathomable to a lot of Americans that that’s not exaggerated rhetoric.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"For the Kamala Harris campaign, the believability gap is a challenge: Get people to believe that Trump will pursue the ideas that the public hates. The evidence available to them is substantial. Some of the most extreme ideas in Project 2025, such as liquidating much of the civil service and politicizing the federal government, are things that Trump has already tried to do. As president, he attempted to use the Justice Department to punish political adversaries, closed down investigations into allies, and sought to punish Amazon for negative coverage in \u003ci\u003eThe Washington Post\u003c/i\u003e, owned by Amazon Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos. (Carpenter has also \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://x.com/amandacarpenter/status/1833217184438571227\\\"\u003epointed to actions\u003c/a\u003e taken by Republican state governments as proof of what Trump could achieve.)\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"That helps explain a major shift in Democratic campaign strategy that has become apparent in recent months. When President Joe Biden was the party’s nominee, he frequently spoke about the election as an existential threat to democracy, using high-flown rhetoric. Since replacing him atop the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris has not stopped talking about democracy, but she’s made it much less of a focus, instead emphasizing issues such as abortion and tax cuts—and, yes, Project 2025. People already hate it. The Harris campaign needs them to believe it.\"}],\"editorialProject\":{\"river\":{\"edges\":[{\"node\":{\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/good-country-bad-choice/680743/\",\"title\":\"A Good Country’s Bad Choice\",\"authors\":[{\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\",\"displayName\":\"David Frum\",\"id\":\"Author:1614\",\"slug\":\"david-frum\",\"__typename\":\"Author\"}],\"riverImage\":{\"id\":\"Image:1708318:80x80:1x,2x\",\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/b2vwZqJ_7AP73kB6G9UdB1eAT4g=/252x252:1752x1752/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/TrumpStickersHP/original.jpg\",\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/b2vwZqJ_7AP73kB6G9UdB1eAT4g=/252x252:1752x1752/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/TrumpStickersHP/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/RzE_TaIywy6Zlahse7IIjKP0Lbk=/252x252:1752x1752/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/TrumpStickersHP/original.jpg 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