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The Danger Ahead - The Atlantic
<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en" dir="ltr"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1"/><link rel="icon" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/favicon-3888b0e329526a975703e3059a02b92d.ico"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-default-b504d70343a9438df64c32ce339c7ebc.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="76x76" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-76x76-d5accc11b8265af76495fbfa9d38dd3b.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="120x120" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-120x120-419ba228184c040a691628d3dd82c206.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="152x152" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-152x152-aafde20dd981a38fcd549b29b2b3b785.png"/><meta name="application-name" content="theatlantic"/><meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#FFFFFF"/><meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/_next/static/images/apple-touch-icon-default-b504d70343a9438df64c32ce339c7ebc.png"/><meta property="og:site_name" content="The Atlantic"/><meta property="og:locale" content="en_US"/><meta property="fb:admins" content="577048155,17301937"/><meta property="fb:app_id" content="100770816677686"/><meta property="fb:pages" content="29259828486,1468531833474495,1061579677251147,457711054591520,370457103090695,1631141167169115,148681772342453,1510507419185410,128344747344340,128377530562508,236061986423933"/><meta name="p:domain_verify" content="68e1a0361a557708fefc992f3309ed70"/><meta name="twitter:site" content="@theatlantic"/><meta name="twitter:domain" content="theatlantic.com"/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"WebSite","name":"The Atlantic","url":"https://www.theatlantic.com","inLanguage":"en-US","issn":"1072-7825","potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":"https://www.theatlantic.com/search/?q={q}","query-input":"required name=q"}}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Organization","@id":"https://www.theatlantic.com/#publisher","name":"The Atlantic","url":"https://www.theatlantic.com","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","unitCode":"E37","value":224},"height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","unitCode":"E37","value":224},"url":"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/files/atlantic-logo--224x224.png"},"sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/TheAtlantic","https://twitter.com/theatlantic"]}</script><style id="_vis_opt_path_hide">#paywall,#nonMeteredNudge,#gate {opacity:0;}</style><title>The Danger Ahead - The Atlantic</title><meta name="description" content="If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries."/><meta property="krux:title" content="The Danger Ahead - The Atlantic"/><meta property="krux:description" content="If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries."/><link rel="canonical" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/"/><link rel="image_src" href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/MsotPAYOU26KkO4WPAkcvuoEPhk=/0x147:1999x1188/1200x625/media/img/2023/11/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png"/><meta name="author" content="David Frum"/><link rel="ia:markup_url" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/facebook-instant/article/676119/"/><meta property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/TheAtlantic/"/><meta property="article:opinion" content="false"/><meta property="article:content_tier" content="metered"/><meta property="article:tag" content="ideas"/><meta property="article:section" content="Ideas"/><meta property="article:published_time" content="2023-12-04T10:59:00Z"/><meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-08-08T15:13:07Z"/><meta name="robots" content="index, follow, max-image-preview:large"/><meta property="og:title" content="The Danger Ahead"/><meta property="og:description" content="If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries."/><meta property="og:url" content="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/"/><meta property="og:type" content="article"/><meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/MsotPAYOU26KkO4WPAkcvuoEPhk=/0x147:1999x1188/1200x625/media/img/2023/11/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png"/><meta property="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta name="FacebookShareMessage" content="A second Trump term would be far worse than the first, @davidfrum writes. His political agenda would be driven by revenge—and could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis:"/><meta name="TwitterShareMessage" content="A second Trump term would be far worse than the first, @davidfrum writes. 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presidency, Trump, human imagination, second time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, refuse orders, Electoral College, constitutional crisis, strategically located minority, Trump’s own former attorney, Trump’s schemes, Middle East, Rex Tillerson, American cities, vice president, Vladimir Putin, Mexico’s antidemocratic Morena party, John Kelly, Department of Justice, democratic majority, Trump’s behalf, array of technically competent opportunists, federal crimes, president, existing constitutional system, border control, Saudi Arabia, long tradition of peaceful transitions of power, Trump-style authoritarianism, U.S. government, influential people, Trump’s likely second-term advisers" itemID="#keywords"/><meta name="news_keywords" content="tomorrow.When Donald Trump, Trump presidency, first crime of his second term, Trump’s corruption, first term, rule of law.From Trump, Trump term, Constitution of the United States, Donald Trump, second Trump term, own survival, much better 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Plus Tim Alberta on the church of America, George Packer on what the working class wants, the IBM way, Camille Claudel’s “revolt against nature,” <em>SNL</em>’s Please Don’t Destroy, a poem by Dong Li, and more.</span> <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNav_magLink__LX9QG" data-event-element="view magazine">View Magazine</a></div></div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_root__Xy4wH"><ul class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_list__KUKKQ"><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/warning-second-trump-term/676117/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="1" title="A Warning"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">A Warning</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"><address><span>Jeffrey Goldberg</span></address></div></a></li><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-second-term-policies/676176/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="2" title="If Trump Wins"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">If Trump Wins</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"></div></a></li><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="3" title="The Danger Ahead"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">The Danger Ahead</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"><address><span>David Frum</span></address></div></a></li><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="4" title="Trump Will Abandon NATO"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">Trump Will Abandon NATO</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"><address><span>Anne Applebaum</span></address></div></a></li><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-2024-reelection-cabinet-appointments/676121/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="5" title="Loyalists, Lapdogs, and Cronies"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">Loyalists, Lapdogs, and Cronies</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"><address><span>McKay Coppins</span></address></div></a></li><li class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoItem__ds_ww"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-immigration-stephen-miller/676122/" class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_promoLink__p8zB2" data-event-element="item" data-event-position="6" title="The Specter of Family Separation"><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_title__CDox_">The Specter of Family Separation</div><div class="ArticleMagazineIssueNavRecirc_byline__mmvsn"><address><span>Caitlin Dickerson</span></address></div></a></li></ul></div></div></div></div></nav><div class="Nav_fixedPosPlaceholder__0nyHE"></div><div class="Nav_overlay__zlKnQ" data-testid="overlay"></div><div></div><main id="main-content" data-event-surface="article" data-flatplan-layout="feature" class=""><gpt-ad class="GptAd_root__pAvcS Leaderboard_root__gbBIq" format="leaderboard" sizes-at-0="" sizes-at-976="leaderboard"></gpt-ad><article class="ArticleLayout_article__RHFMN article-content-body"><header 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https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/zBK2eOu_IuFWF8zdZLUFcOipH4M=/0x104:2000x1229/850x478/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 850w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Qi5PhO0sIjHH28z-4QpFTdRu7j8=/0x104:2000x1229/1536x864/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 1536w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/pNOPQYAmWKRDbBWFT1RGXtCkrb0=/0x104:2000x1229/1920x1080/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 1920w" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/DHn25ig5wc1infc5YTtQyS47J1c=/0x104:2000x1229/1440x810/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png" id="article-lead-image" width="1440" height="810"/></picture></div><figcaption class="ArticleLeadFigure_caption__Byu7W ArticleLeadFigure_featureCaption__hxjjB" data-flatplan-lead_figure_caption="true">Brendan Smialowski / Getty</figcaption></figure></div><div class="ArticleHero_defaultArticleLockup__vb8lz"><div class="ArticleHero_rubric__e4rjD ArticleHero_featureRubric__uzMOp"><div class="ArticleRubric_root__HNhbf" id="rubric" data-flatplan-rubric="true"><a class="ArticleRubric_link__nl9hy" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/" data-event-element="rubric">Ideas</a></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_title__PQ4pC"><h1 class="ArticleTitle_root__VrZaG ArticleTitle_featureOrTwoCol__TRUC3" data-flatplan-title="true">The Danger Ahead</h1></div><div class="ArticleHero_dek__EqdkK" data-flatplan-description="true"><p class="ArticleDek_root__P3leE ArticleDek_feature__lHYTl">If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries.</p></div><div class="ArticleHero_byline__iFT6A ArticleHero_featureByline__G7kFq"><div class="ArticleBylines_root__IBR5V"><address id="byline">By <a class="ArticleBylines_link__kNP4C" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-event-element="author" data-flatplan-author-link="true">David Frum</a></address></div></div></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBar__JbQFj"><div class="ArticleHero_timestamp__bKhcB"><time class="ArticleTimestamp_root__b3bL6" dateTime="2023-12-04T10:59:00Z" data-flatplan-timestamp="true">December 4, 2023</time> </div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBarTools__ZHw8s"><div class="ArticleShare_root__Mq0RB" tabindex="-1"><button class="ArticleShare_shareButton__X0cIe" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls=":Rp2pb32qm:" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open Share Menu" data-action="click share - expand" data-event-verb="shared" data-event-element="share dropdown">Share<svg width="15" height="15" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="ArticleShare_buttonIcon__B86vV"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M7.335.272a.25.25 0 01.337 0l4.623 4.204a.25.25 0 01.017.353l-.336.37a.25.25 0 01-.353.016L8.004 1.926v7.9a.25.25 0 01-.25.25h-.5a.25.25 0 01-.25-.25V1.924l-3.62 3.291a.25.25 0 01-.353-.016l-.336-.37a.25.25 0 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href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/el-peligro-que-se-avecina/679084/">Lee este artículo en español</a>.</span></div></section></div></header><div class="ArticleAudio_root__4Qcq3" data-view-action="view - audio player - start" data-view-label="676119" data-event-module="audio player" data-event-content-type="narrated" data-event-module-state="start" data-event-view="true"><div class="ArticleAudio_container__b5Yj2"><div><div class="ArticleAudio_imgContainer__qDu_f"><img alt="Black-and-white photo of Donald Trump giving a speech to a crowd in front of a large American flag suspended from two bucket lifts" class="Image_root__XxsOp ArticleAudio_img__BFda3" sizes="80px" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/1--5eO2TTIbO7MISY3IGzO00jIc=/304x0:1637x1333/80x80/media/img/2023/11/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 80w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/mENWuEMQeQQ6cnGK5puBGExZb9o=/304x0:1637x1333/96x96/media/img/2023/11/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 96w, 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class="smallcaps">or all its</span> marvelous creativity, the human imagination often fails when turned to the future. It is blunted, perhaps, by a craving for the familiar. We all appreciate that the past includes many moments of severe instability, crisis, even radical revolutionary upheaval. We know that such things happened years or decades or centuries ago. We cannot believe they might happen tomorrow.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">When Donald Trump is the subject, imagination falters further. Trump operates so far outside the normal bounds of human behavior—never mind normal political behavior—that it is difficult to accept what he may actually do, even when he declares his intentions openly. What’s more, we have experienced one Trump presidency already. We can take false comfort from that previous experience: We’ve lived through it once. American democracy survived. Maybe the danger is less than feared?</p><div class="ArticleRelatedContentModule_root__nT4KN" data-flatplan-ignore="true"><section class="ArticleMagazinePromo_root__kenOr" data-event-module="magazine promo"><figure class="ArticleMagazinePromo_figure__RF5YN"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/" target="_blank" data-event-element="image"><picture class="ArticleMagazinePromo_picture__fdZXS"><img alt="Magazine Cover image" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleMagazinePromo_image__aAbsW" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/ZeQ6NQ7WvXJG1yS6YD2oDKMkaQU=/15x0:2348x3150/100x135/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png 100w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/eGZJs4YWXz-AFlEQZB406ST0VAc=/15x0:2348x3150/200x270/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png 200w" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/7gRhOKqfEQcBLZjk9-jVtJzEVi8=/15x0:2348x3150/80x108/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png" width="80" height="108"/></picture></a></figure><div class="ArticleMagazinePromo_textWrapper___pxrk"><h2 class="ArticleMagazinePromo_heading__8Ct50">Explore the January/February 2024 Issue</h2><p class="ArticleMagazinePromo_cta__Sswl4">Check out more from this issue and find your next story to read.</p></div><a class="ArticleMagazinePromo_link__uOKjl" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/" target="_blank" data-event-element="view more">View More</a></section></div><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">In his first term, Trump’s corruption and brutality were mitigated by his ignorance and laziness. In a second, Trump would arrive with a much better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers in tow, and a much more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries and impunity for himself. When people wonder what another Trump term might hold, their minds underestimate the chaos that would lie ahead.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">By Election Day 2024, Donald Trump will be in the thick of multiple criminal trials. It’s not impossible that he may already have been convicted in at least one of them. If he wins the election, Trump will commit the first crime of his second term at noon on Inauguration Day: His oath to defend the Constitution of the United States will be a perjury.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">A second Trump term would instantly plunge the country into a constitutional crisis more terrible than anything seen since the Civil War. Even in the turmoil of the 1960s, even during the Great Depression, the country had a functional government with the president as its head. But the government cannot function with an indicted or convicted criminal as its head. The president would be an outlaw, or on his way to becoming an outlaw. For his own survival, he would have to destroy the rule of law.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">From Trump himself and the people around him, we have a fair idea of a second Trump administration’s immediate priorities: (1) Stop all federal and state cases against Trump, criminal and civil. (2) <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-pardon-large-portion-jan-6-rioters-rcna83873">Pardon and protect those who tried to overturn the 2020 election on Trump’s behalf</a>. (3) <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/09/trump-interview-univision/">Send the Department of Justice into action against Trump adversaries and critics</a>. (4) <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-2024-reelection-cabinet-appointments/676121/">End the independence of the civil service and fire federal officials who refuse to carry out Trump’s commands</a>. (5) If these lawless actions ignite protests in American cities, <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.newsweek.com/trump-could-legally-quell-protests-military-mark-esper-1842888">order the military to crush them</a>.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">A restored Trump would lead the United States into a landscape of unthinkable scenarios. Will the Senate confirm Trump nominees who were chosen because of their willingness to help the president lead a coup against the U.S. government? Will the staff of the Justice Department resign? Will people march in the streets? Will the military obey or refuse orders to suppress demonstrations?</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">The existing constitutional system has no room for the subversive legal maneuvers of a criminal in chief. If a president can pardon himself for federal crimes—as Trump would likely try to do—then he could write his pardon in advance and shoot visitors to the White House. (For that matter, the vice president could murder the president in the Oval Office and then immediately pardon herself.) If a president can order the attorney general to stop a federal case against him—as Trump would surely do—then obstruction of justice becomes a normal prerogative of the presidency. If Trump can be president, then the United States owes a huge retrospective apology to Richard Nixon. Under the rules of a second Trump presidency, Nixon would have been well within his rights to order the Department of Justice to <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/102173-2.htm">stop investigating Watergate</a> and then pardon himself and all the burglars for the break-in and cover-up.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">After Trump was elected in 2016, he was quickly surrounded by prominent and influential people who recognized that he was a lawless menace. They found ways to restrain a man they regarded as, to quote <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/10/now-we-know-why-rex-tillerson-called-donald-trump-a-moron.html">the reported words of Trump’s first secretary of state</a>, “a fucking moron” and, to <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/politics/donald-trump-criticism-from-former-administration-officials/index.html">quote his second chief of staff</a>, “the most flawed person I’ve ever met in my life,” whose “dishonesty is just astounding.” But there would be no Rex Tillerson in a second Trump term; no John Kelly; no Jeff Sessions, who as attorney general <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgos4aGdgHo">recused himself from the investigation</a> into the president’s connections to Russia, leading to the appointment of an independent special counsel.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Since 2021, Trump-skeptical Republicans have been pushed out of politics. Representatives <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/us/politics/harriet-hageman-liz-cheney-wyoming.html">Liz Cheney</a> and <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/adam-kinzinger-renegade-prodemocracy-republicans/675846/">Adam Kinzinger</a> forfeited their seats in the House for defending election integrity. Representative Tom Emmer <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/politics/tom-emmer-house-speaker/index.html">withdrew his bid for House speaker</a> over the same offense. The Republican Senate caucus is less hospitable to Trump-style authoritarianism—but notice that the younger and newer Republican senators (Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, J. D. Vance) tend to support Trump’s schemes, while his opponents in the Senate belong to the outgoing generation. Trump’s leading rivals for the 2024 nomination seldom dare criticize his abuse of power.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Most of the people who would staff a second Trump term would be servile tools who have absorbed the brutal realities of contemporary Republicanism: defend democracy; forfeit your career. Already, an array of technically competent opportunists has assembled itself—from within right-wing think tanks and elsewhere—and has begun to plan out exactly how to dismantle the institutional safeguards against Trump’s corrupt and vengeful impulses. Trump’s likely second-term advisers have made clear that they would share his agenda of legal impunity and the use of law enforcement against his perceived opponents—not only the Biden family, but Trump’s <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">own former attorney general</a> and <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/trump-milley-execution-incitement-violence/675435/">chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff</a>.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW ArticleParagraph_dropcap__uIVzg" data-flatplan-paragraph="true" data-flatplan-dropcap="true"><span class="smallcaps">If Trump wins </span>the presidency again, the whole world will become a theater for his politics of revenge and reward. Ukraine will be abandoned to Vladimir Putin; Saudi Arabia will collect its dividends for its investments in the Trump family.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">First-term Trump told aides that he wanted to withdraw from NATO. Second-term Trump would choose aides who would not talk him out of it. Other partners, too, would have to adjust to the authoritarianism and corruption of a second Trump term. Liberals in Israel and India would find themselves isolated as the U.S. turned toward reaction and authoritarianism at home; East Asian democracies would have to adjust to Trump protectionism and trade wars; Mexico’s <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/mexico-democracy-autocrat-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador/673137/">antidemocratic Morena party</a> would have scope to snuff out free institutions provided that it suppressed migration flows to the United States.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Anyway, the United States would be too paralyzed by troubles at home to help friends abroad.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">If Trump is elected, it very likely won’t be with a majority of the popular vote. Imagine the scenario: Trump has won the Electoral College with 46 percent of the vote because third-party candidates funded by Republican donors successfully splintered the anti-Trump coalition. Having failed to win the popular vote in each of the past three elections, Trump has become president for the second time. On that thin basis, his supporters would try to execute his schemes of personal impunity and political vengeance.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">In this scenario, Trump opponents would have to face a harsh reality: The U.S. electoral system has privileged a strategically located minority, led by a lawbreaking president, over the democratic majority. One side outvoted the other. The outvoted nonetheless won the power to govern.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">The outvoted would happily justify the twist of events in their favor. “We are a republic, not a democracy,” many said in 2016. Since that time, the outvoted have become more outspoken against democracy. As <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1314089207875371008">Senator Mike Lee tweeted</a> a month before the 2020 election: “Democracy isn’t the objective.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">So long as minority rule seems an occasional or accidental result, the majority might go along. But once aware that the minority intends to engineer its power to last forever—and to use it to subvert the larger legal and constitutional system—the majority may cease to be so accepting. One outcome of a second Trump term may be an American version of <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/07/israel-protest-law-supreme-court-powers/674815/">the massive demonstrations that filled Tel Aviv streets</a> in 2023, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to remake Israel’s court system.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">And what might follow that? In 2020, Trump’s advisers speculated about the possibility of using the Army to crush protests against Trump’s plans to overturn that year’s election. Now those in Trump’s circle are apparently thinking further ahead. Some <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">reportedly want to prepare in advance to use the Insurrection Act</a> to convert the military into a tool of Trump’s authoritarian project. It’s an astonishing possibility. But Trump is thinking about it, so everybody else must—including the senior command of the U.S. military.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">If a president can summon an investigation of his opponents, or summon the military to put down protests, then suddenly our society would no longer be free. There would be no more law, only legalized persecution of political opponents. It has always been Trump’s supreme political wish to wield both the law and institutional violence as personal weapons of power—a wish that many in his party now seem determined to help him achieve.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">That grim negative ideal is the core ballot question in 2024. If Trump is defeated, the United States can proceed in its familiar imperfect way to deal with the many big problems of our time: the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, climate change, educational standards and equal opportunity, economic growth and individual living standards, and so on. Stopping Trump would not represent progress on any of those agenda items. But stopping Trump would preserve the possibility of progress, by keeping alive the constitutional-democratic structure of the United States.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">A second Trump presidency, however, is the kind of shock that would overwhelm all other issues. It would mark the turn onto a dark path, one of these rips between “before” and “after” that a society can never reverse. Even if the harm is contained, it can never be fully undone, as <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-trump-coup-2024-election/620843/">the harm of January 6, 2021</a>, can never be undone. The long tradition of peaceful transitions of power was broken that day, and even though the attempt to stop the transition by violence was defeated, the violence itself was not expunged. The schemes and plots of a second Trump term may be defeated too. Yet every future would-be dictator will know: A president can attempt a coup and, if stopped, still return to office to try again.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">As we now understand from memoirs and on-the-record comments, many of Trump’s own Cabinet appointees and senior staff were horrified by the president they served. The leaders of his own party in Congress feared and hated him. The GOP’s deepest-pocketed donors have worked for three years to nominate somebody, anybody, else. Yet even so, Trump’s co-partisans are converging upon him. They are convincing themselves that something can justify forgiving Trump’s first attempted coup and enabling a second: taxes, border control, stupid comments by “woke” college students.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">For democracy to continue, however, the democratic system itself must be the supreme commitment of all major participants. Rules must matter more than outcomes. If not, the system careens toward breakdown—as it is careening now.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">When Benjamin Franklin famously said of the then-new Constitution, “A republic, if you can keep it,” he was not suggesting that the republic might be misplaced absentmindedly. He foresaw that ambitious, ruthless characters would arise to try to break the republic, and that weak, venal characters might assist them. Americans have faced Franklin’s challenge since 2016, in a story that has so far had some villains, many heroes—and just enough good luck to tip the balance. It would be dangerous to continue to count on luck to do the job.</p><hr class="ArticleLegacyHtml_root__WFd2I ArticleLegacyHtml_standard__kC_zi"/><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true"><small><em>This article appears in the <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/">January/February 2024</a> print edition with the headline “The Revenge Presidency.”</em></small></p><div class="ArticleBody_divider__GpNxD" id="article-end"></div></section><div data-event-module="footer"><div class="ArticleWell_root__fueCa"><div data-event-module="author footer" class="ArticleFooter_authorFooter__5NsdY"><div class="SectionHeading_root__3GnqT"><h3 class="SectionHeading_heading__iNkek">About the Author</h3></div><div class="ArticleBio_root__ua8zj"><address id="article-writer-0" class="ArticleBio_author__6pDyl" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="1" data-flatplan-bio="true"><div class="ArticleBio_content__O0ZVF"><div class="ArticleBio_topContainer__QYRU4"><a class="ArticleBio_headshotContainer__Am2nR" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-event-element="image"><img alt="" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBio_headshot__6Aykd" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg" width="60" height="60"/></a><div><div class="ArticleBio_bioNameMulti__gvg_b"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-event-element="author name">David Frum</a></div><div class="ArticleAuthorFollow_root__Oyvdr"><button class="ArticleAuthorFollow_followButton__0_Sod" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls=":Rkt8pb32qm:" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open Author Newsletter Signup" data-event-verb="followed" data-event-element="follow button"><div class="ArticleAuthorFollow_buttonIcon__ofx09"></div>Follow</button></div></div></div><div class="ArticleBio_bioSection__Hef4P"><div class="ArticleBio_bioSection__Hef4P" data-flatplan-bio="true"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" class="author-link" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-action="click author - name" >David Frum</a> is a staff writer at <em>The Atlantic</em>.</div><div class="ArticleBio_moreStories__LKpwT"><p class="ArticleBio_contentHeading__cmbmT">More Stories</p><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/gulf-america-mexico-defeat/681682/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="1"><p>The ‘Gulf of America’ Is an Admission of Defeat</p></a><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/covid-deniers-anti-vax-public-health-politics-polarization/681435/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="2"><p>Why the COVID Deniers Won</p></a></div></div></div></address></div></div></div></div><gpt-ad class="GptAd_root__pAvcS ArticleInjector_root__I7x9v s-native s-native--standard s-native--streamline" format="injector" sizes-at-0="mobile-wide,native,house" targeting-pos="injector-most-popular" sizes-at-976="desktop-wide,native,house"></gpt-ad><div class="ArticleInjector_clsAvoider__dqIAm"></div></article><div></div></main><div></div><div></div></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"isLoggedIn":false,"hasPaywallAccess":false,"hasAdFree":false,"pageProps":{"id":"MagazineArticle:676119","isTnfCompatible":true,"layout":"feature","hasMeter":true,"url":"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/","dateModified":"2024-08-08T15:13:07Z","__typename":"MagazineArticle","notFound":false,"urqlState":{"5779678":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"id\":\"MagazineArticle:676119\",\"isTnfCompatible\":true,\"layout\":\"feature\",\"hasMeter\":true,\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-08T15:13:07Z\",\"__typename\":\"MagazineArticle\"}}"},"2021745665":{"data":"{\"breakingNews\":null}"},"3074947609":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"issue\":{\"issueName\":\"January/February 2024\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/\",\"cover\":{\"id\":\"Image:1623442:80x108:100w,200w\",\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/7gRhOKqfEQcBLZjk9-jVtJzEVi8=/15x0:2348x3150/80x108/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png\",\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/ZeQ6NQ7WvXJG1yS6YD2oDKMkaQU=/15x0:2348x3150/100x135/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png 100w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/eGZJs4YWXz-AFlEQZB406ST0VAc=/15x0:2348x3150/200x270/media/img/issues/2023/12/18/0124_Cover-1/original.png 200w\",\"width\":80,\"height\":108,\"__typename\":\"BasicCrop\"},\"__typename\":\"MagazineIssue\"},\"__typename\":\"MagazineArticle\"}}"},"4027157800":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"__typename\":\"MagazineArticle\",\"id\":\"MagazineArticle:676119\",\"authors\":[{\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\",\"displayName\":\"David Frum\",\"__typename\":\"Author\",\"id\":\"Author:1614\",\"isFollowable\":true,\"biography\":{\"default\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\\\" class=\\\"author-link\\\" data-label=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\\\" data-action=\\\"click author - name\\\" \u003eDavid Frum\u003c/a\u003e is a staff writer at \u003cem\u003eThe Atlantic\u003c/em\u003e.\",\"__typename\":\"Biography\"},\"headshot\":{\"width\":120,\"height\":120,\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/rSV8fUGUSx7L6DhTWr9EjA2Oj7E=/0x68:577x645/240x240/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg 2x\",\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg\",\"__typename\":\"BasicImage\"},\"river\":{\"edges\":[{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNS0wMi0xMyAxMjoxNTowMHw2ODE2ODI=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:681682\",\"title\":\"The ‘Gulf of America’ Is an Admission of Defeat\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/gulf-america-mexico-defeat/681682/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNS0wMi0xMiAwNzozMDowMHw2ODE0MzU=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"MagazineArticle:681435\",\"title\":\"Why the COVID Deniers Won\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/covid-deniers-anti-vax-public-health-politics-polarization/681435/\",\"__typename\":\"MagazineArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNS0wMi0wNSAxMzo0MjowMHw2ODE1Nzk=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:681579\",\"title\":\"How Trump Lost His Trade War\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada/681579/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"}],\"__typename\":\"RiverConnection\"},\"slug\":\"david-frum\",\"socialMedia\":[{\"platform\":\"TWITTER\",\"url\":\"https://twitter.com/davidfrum\",\"__typename\":\"SocialMedia\"}]}],\"authorContext\":null,\"pdfUrl\":\"\",\"categories\":[],\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":\"DROPCAP\",\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"F\u003cspan class=\\\"smallcaps\\\"\u003eor all its\u003c/span\u003e marvelous creativity, the human imagination often fails when turned to the future. It is blunted, perhaps, by a craving for the familiar. We all appreciate that the past includes many moments of severe instability, crisis, even radical revolutionary upheaval. We know that such things happened years or decades or centuries ago. We cannot believe they might happen tomorrow.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"When Donald Trump is the subject, imagination falters further. Trump operates so far outside the normal bounds of human behavior—never mind normal political behavior—that it is difficult to accept what he may actually do, even when he declares his intentions openly. What’s more, we have experienced one Trump presidency already. We can take false comfort from that previous experience: We’ve lived through it once. American democracy survived. Maybe the danger is less than feared?\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentModule\",\"contentType\":\"MAGAZINE\",\"index\":0},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"In his first term, Trump’s corruption and brutality were mitigated by his ignorance and laziness. In a second, Trump would arrive with a much better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers in tow, and a much more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries and impunity for himself. When people wonder what another Trump term might hold, their minds underestimate the chaos that would lie ahead.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"By Election Day 2024, Donald Trump will be in the thick of multiple criminal trials. It’s not impossible that he may already have been convicted in at least one of them. If he wins the election, Trump will commit the first crime of his second term at noon on Inauguration Day: His oath to defend the Constitution of the United States will be a perjury.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"A second Trump term would instantly plunge the country into a constitutional crisis more terrible than anything seen since the Civil War. Even in the turmoil of the 1960s, even during the Great Depression, the country had a functional government with the president as its head. But the government cannot function with an indicted or convicted criminal as its head. The president would be an outlaw, or on his way to becoming an outlaw. For his own survival, he would have to destroy the rule of law.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"From Trump himself and the people around him, we have a fair idea of a second Trump administration’s immediate priorities: (1) Stop all federal and state cases against Trump, criminal and civil. (2) \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-pardon-large-portion-jan-6-rioters-rcna83873\\\"\u003ePardon and protect those who tried to overturn the 2020 election on Trump’s behalf\u003c/a\u003e. (3) \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/09/trump-interview-univision/\\\"\u003eSend the Department of Justice into action against Trump adversaries and critics\u003c/a\u003e. (4) \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-2024-reelection-cabinet-appointments/676121/\\\"\u003eEnd the independence of the civil service and fire federal officials who refuse to carry out Trump’s commands\u003c/a\u003e. (5) If these lawless actions ignite protests in American cities, \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.newsweek.com/trump-could-legally-quell-protests-military-mark-esper-1842888\\\"\u003eorder the military to crush them\u003c/a\u003e.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"A restored Trump would lead the United States into a landscape of unthinkable scenarios. Will the Senate confirm Trump nominees who were chosen because of their willingness to help the president lead a coup against the U.S. government? Will the staff of the Justice Department resign? Will people march in the streets? Will the military obey or refuse orders to suppress demonstrations?\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"The existing constitutional system has no room for the subversive legal maneuvers of a criminal in chief. If a president can pardon himself for federal crimes—as Trump would likely try to do—then he could write his pardon in advance and shoot visitors to the White House. (For that matter, the vice president could murder the president in the Oval Office and then immediately pardon herself.) If a president can order the attorney general to stop a federal case against him—as Trump would surely do—then obstruction of justice becomes a normal prerogative of the presidency. If Trump can be president, then the United States owes a huge retrospective apology to Richard Nixon. Under the rules of a second Trump presidency, Nixon would have been well within his rights to order the Department of Justice to \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/102173-2.htm\\\"\u003estop investigating Watergate\u003c/a\u003e and then pardon himself and all the burglars for the break-in and cover-up.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"After Trump was elected in 2016, he was quickly surrounded by prominent and influential people who recognized that he was a lawless menace. They found ways to restrain a man they regarded as, to quote \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/10/now-we-know-why-rex-tillerson-called-donald-trump-a-moron.html\\\"\u003ethe reported words of Trump’s first secretary of state\u003c/a\u003e, “a fucking moron” and, to \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/politics/donald-trump-criticism-from-former-administration-officials/index.html\\\"\u003equote his second chief of staff\u003c/a\u003e, “the most flawed person I’ve ever met in my life,” whose “dishonesty is just astounding.” But there would be no Rex Tillerson in a second Trump term; no John Kelly; no Jeff Sessions, who as attorney general \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgos4aGdgHo\\\"\u003erecused himself from the investigation\u003c/a\u003e into the president’s connections to Russia, leading to the appointment of an independent special counsel.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Since 2021, Trump-skeptical Republicans have been pushed out of politics. Representatives \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/us/politics/harriet-hageman-liz-cheney-wyoming.html\\\"\u003eLiz Cheney\u003c/a\u003e and \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/adam-kinzinger-renegade-prodemocracy-republicans/675846/\\\"\u003eAdam Kinzinger\u003c/a\u003e forfeited their seats in the House for defending election integrity. Representative Tom Emmer \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/politics/tom-emmer-house-speaker/index.html\\\"\u003ewithdrew his bid for House speaker\u003c/a\u003e over the same offense. The Republican Senate caucus is less hospitable to Trump-style authoritarianism—but notice that the younger and newer Republican senators (Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, J. D. Vance) tend to support Trump’s schemes, while his opponents in the Senate belong to the outgoing generation. Trump’s leading rivals for the 2024 nomination seldom dare criticize his abuse of power.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Most of the people who would staff a second Trump term would be servile tools who have absorbed the brutal realities of contemporary Republicanism: defend democracy; forfeit your career. Already, an array of technically competent opportunists has assembled itself—from within right-wing think tanks and elsewhere—and has begun to plan out exactly how to dismantle the institutional safeguards against Trump’s corrupt and vengeful impulses. Trump’s likely second-term advisers have made clear that they would share his agenda of legal impunity and the use of law enforcement against his perceived opponents—not only the Biden family, but Trump’s \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/\\\"\u003eown former attorney general\u003c/a\u003e and \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/trump-milley-execution-incitement-violence/675435/\\\"\u003echairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff\u003c/a\u003e.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":\"DROPCAP\",\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003cspan class=\\\"smallcaps\\\"\u003eIf Trump wins \u003c/span\u003ethe presidency again, the whole world will become a theater for his politics of revenge and reward. Ukraine will be abandoned to Vladimir Putin; Saudi Arabia will collect its dividends for its investments in the Trump family.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"First-term Trump told aides that he wanted to withdraw from NATO. Second-term Trump would choose aides who would not talk him out of it. Other partners, too, would have to adjust to the authoritarianism and corruption of a second Trump term. Liberals in Israel and India would find themselves isolated as the U.S. turned toward reaction and authoritarianism at home; East Asian democracies would have to adjust to Trump protectionism and trade wars; Mexico’s \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/mexico-democracy-autocrat-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador/673137/\\\"\u003eantidemocratic Morena party\u003c/a\u003e would have scope to snuff out free institutions provided that it suppressed migration flows to the United States.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Anyway, the United States would be too paralyzed by troubles at home to help friends abroad.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"If Trump is elected, it very likely won’t be with a majority of the popular vote. Imagine the scenario: Trump has won the Electoral College with 46 percent of the vote because third-party candidates funded by Republican donors successfully splintered the anti-Trump coalition. Having failed to win the popular vote in each of the past three elections, Trump has become president for the second time. On that thin basis, his supporters would try to execute his schemes of personal impunity and political vengeance.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"In this scenario, Trump opponents would have to face a harsh reality: The U.S. electoral system has privileged a strategically located minority, led by a lawbreaking president, over the democratic majority. One side outvoted the other. The outvoted nonetheless won the power to govern.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"The outvoted would happily justify the twist of events in their favor. “We are a republic, not a democracy,” many said in 2016. Since that time, the outvoted have become more outspoken against democracy. As \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1314089207875371008\\\"\u003eSenator Mike Lee tweeted\u003c/a\u003e a month before the 2020 election: “Democracy isn’t the objective.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"So long as minority rule seems an occasional or accidental result, the majority might go along. But once aware that the minority intends to engineer its power to last forever—and to use it to subvert the larger legal and constitutional system—the majority may cease to be so accepting. One outcome of a second Trump term may be an American version of \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/07/israel-protest-law-supreme-court-powers/674815/\\\"\u003ethe massive demonstrations that filled Tel Aviv streets\u003c/a\u003e in 2023, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to remake Israel’s court system.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"And what might follow that? In 2020, Trump’s advisers speculated about the possibility of using the Army to crush protests against Trump’s plans to overturn that year’s election. Now those in Trump’s circle are apparently thinking further ahead. Some \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/\\\"\u003ereportedly want to prepare in advance to use the Insurrection Act\u003c/a\u003e to convert the military into a tool of Trump’s authoritarian project. It’s an astonishing possibility. But Trump is thinking about it, so everybody else must—including the senior command of the U.S. military.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"If a president can summon an investigation of his opponents, or summon the military to put down protests, then suddenly our society would no longer be free. There would be no more law, only legalized persecution of political opponents. It has always been Trump’s supreme political wish to wield both the law and institutional violence as personal weapons of power—a wish that many in his party now seem determined to help him achieve.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"That grim negative ideal is the core ballot question in 2024. If Trump is defeated, the United States can proceed in its familiar imperfect way to deal with the many big problems of our time: the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, climate change, educational standards and equal opportunity, economic growth and individual living standards, and so on. Stopping Trump would not represent progress on any of those agenda items. But stopping Trump would preserve the possibility of progress, by keeping alive the constitutional-democratic structure of the United States.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"A second Trump presidency, however, is the kind of shock that would overwhelm all other issues. It would mark the turn onto a dark path, one of these rips between “before” and “after” that a society can never reverse. Even if the harm is contained, it can never be fully undone, as \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-trump-coup-2024-election/620843/\\\"\u003ethe harm of January 6, 2021\u003c/a\u003e, can never be undone. The long tradition of peaceful transitions of power was broken that day, and even though the attempt to stop the transition by violence was defeated, the violence itself was not expunged. The schemes and plots of a second Trump term may be defeated too. Yet every future would-be dictator will know: A president can attempt a coup and, if stopped, still return to office to try again.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"As we now understand from memoirs and on-the-record comments, many of Trump’s own Cabinet appointees and senior staff were horrified by the president they served. The leaders of his own party in Congress feared and hated him. The GOP’s deepest-pocketed donors have worked for three years to nominate somebody, anybody, else. Yet even so, Trump’s co-partisans are converging upon him. They are convincing themselves that something can justify forgiving Trump’s first attempted coup and enabling a second: taxes, border control, stupid comments by “woke” college students.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"For democracy to continue, however, the democratic system itself must be the supreme commitment of all major participants. Rules must matter more than outcomes. If not, the system careens toward breakdown—as it is careening now.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"When Benjamin Franklin famously said of the then-new Constitution, “A republic, if you can keep it,” he was not suggesting that the republic might be misplaced absentmindedly. He foresaw that ambitious, ruthless characters would arise to try to break the republic, and that weak, venal characters might assist them. Americans have faced Franklin’s challenge since 2016, in a story that has so far had some villains, many heroes—and just enough good luck to tip the balance. It would be dangerous to continue to count on luck to do the job.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleLegacyHtml\",\"tagName\":\"HR\",\"idAttr\":\"\",\"className\":\"\",\"style\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003csmall\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis article appears in the \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/\\\"\u003eJanuary/February 2024\u003c/a\u003e print edition with the headline “The Revenge Presidency.”\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/small\u003e\"}],\"editorialProject\":null,\"primaryCategory\":{\"__typename\":\"Channel\",\"displayName\":\"Ideas\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/\",\"slug\":\"ideas\"},\"reviews\":[],\"embeds\":[],\"preview\":null,\"tags\":[],\"layout\":\"feature\",\"secondaryByline\":\"\",\"dek\":\"If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries.\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-reelection-second-term-agenda/676119/\",\"shareText\":\"A second Trump term would be far worse than the first, @davidfrum writes. His political agenda would be driven by revenge—and could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis:\",\"shareTitle\":\"The Danger Ahead\",\"title\":\"The Danger Ahead\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-04T10:59:00Z\",\"issue\":{\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2024/01/\",\"issueName\":\"January/February 2024\",\"__typename\":\"MagazineIssue\",\"slug\":\"202401\"},\"editorsNote\":{\"content\":\"This article is part of “\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-second-term-policies/676176/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\"\u003eIf Trump Wins\u003c/a\u003e,” a project considering what Donald Trump might do if reelected in 2024.\u003cbr /\u003e\\r\\n\u003cbr /\u003e\\r\\n\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/el-peligro-que-se-avecina/679084/\\\"\u003eLee este artículo en español\u003c/a\u003e.\",\"datePublished\":null,\"__typename\":\"EditorsNote\"},\"leadArt\":{\"__typename\":\"LeadArtImageLarge\",\"image\":{\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/DHn25ig5wc1infc5YTtQyS47J1c=/0x104:2000x1229/1440x810/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png\",\"width\":1440,\"height\":810,\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/RDxgQWM35jH5Td7wI1EMed0vSxo=/0x104:2000x1229/640x360/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 640w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/OKQ8Kqsc5F0B37NLg8ieplbgcAE=/0x104:2000x1229/750x422/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 750w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/zBK2eOu_IuFWF8zdZLUFcOipH4M=/0x104:2000x1229/850x478/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 850w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Qi5PhO0sIjHH28z-4QpFTdRu7j8=/0x104:2000x1229/1536x864/media/img/2023/12/01/WEL_TrumpPackage_Frum/original.png 1536w, 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