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archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="nv-page-title-wrap nv-big-title" > <div class="nv-page-title "> <h1>Queensland</h1> </div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8132" class="post-8132 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-queensland tag-218 tag-election tag-queensland tag-results tag-summary tag-two-party-swing layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-initial-analysis-of-the-queensland-election-result/" rel="bookmark">QLD2024 – Initial Analysis of the Queensland Election Result</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-15T15:24:53+11:00" content="2024-11-15">November 15, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-16T08:27:59+11:00">November 16, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The Liberal National Party (LNP) led by new Premier David Crisafulli won the Queensland election on 26 October, a result that had been widely expected for more than a year.</p> <p>The Labor Party under Premier Steven Miles, who had replaced long-serving Annastacia Palaszczuk the previous December, managed to limit the scale of its defeat compared to predictions of a landslide based on polls published earlier in the year.</p> <p>But the result was a still a comfortable victory for the LNP and clear defeat for Labor. The two parties virtually exchanged places in seats and votes compared to Labor’s last election victory under Annastacia Palaszczuk.</p> <p>In 2020 Labor won 52 seats with 53.2% of the two-party preferred vote with the LNP winning 34 seats. In 2024 it was the LNP winning 52 seas on a slightly higher 53.8% of the two-party preferred vote, while Labor finished on 36 seats.</p> <p>The new government has 16 more seats than Labor and a majority of 11 over all other parties in the new Legislative Assembly. That would be at risk if the LNP suffered the same reverses as it did under Campbell Newman between 2012 and 2015, five members lost in total to defections and by-elections. But the smaller number of ‘accidental’ MPs elected compared to 2012, plus the need to keep the team together with a smaller majority, should give greater focus to the new LNP party room. </p> <p>The LNP gained 18 seats on a state-wide swing of 7.0%, exactly the result you would have predicted applying a uniform swing of 7.0% to the pre-election pendulum. As usually occurs with pendulums, some of the seats on small margins retained by Labor were cancelled out by the LNP achieving larger swings in some safer Labor seats. Especially in the state’s regional cities.</p> <p>The state-wide swing masks a big difference between the swing in Greater Brisbane compared to regional cities along the Queensland coast. </p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/qld/2024/guide/QLD2024_ResultSummary.pdf">I’ve prepared a summary of the results which you can find at this link.</a></p> <p>The summary includes two-party preferred analysis of seats and by region, including estimated two-party results for electorates that did not finish as Labor-LNP contests. There’s also a summary of results by region and details of new and departing members by electorate.</p> <p>Inside this post I’ll augment the results document linked above with some commentary.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-initial-analysis-of-the-queensland-election-result/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD2024 – Initial Analysis of the Queensland Election Result</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8115" class="post-8115 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-queensland category-south-australia tag-218 tag-black tag-by-elections tag-election tag-queensland tag-result-updates tag-sa tag-south-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sa-black-by-election-plus-updates-on-2024-queensland-election-count/" rel="bookmark">SA Black By-election plus Updates on 2024 Queensland Election Count</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-02T13:02:25+11:00" content="2024-11-02">November 2, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-02T15:23:32+11:00">November 2, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A quick post highlighting a new ABC Elections guide page by me for the Black by-election, plus an explainer on how the count is unfolding for the Queensland election. Details inside the post.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sa-black-by-election-plus-updates-on-2024-queensland-election-count/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">SA Black By-election plus Updates on 2024 Queensland Election Count</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8107" class="post-8107 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-predicting-elections category-preferential-voting-single-member-av category-queensland tag-convenience-voting tag-early-voting tag-election tag-preferences tag-queensland tag-south-brisbane layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-preference-flows-and-vote-by-type-compared-to-2020/" rel="bookmark">QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-29T17:20:52+11:00" content="2024-10-29">October 29, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-29T17:36:35+11:00">October 29, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results?filter=all&sort=latest">ABC Queensland Election Results site</a>.</p> <p>While the ECQ conducted indicative preference counts for all votes counted on the weekend, it has ceased undertaking further preference counts and removed the weekend’s totals from its website.</p> <p>Before the data was removed, I captured all the available preference flow data and used it to re-build the preference formulas in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC results site is now applying the weekend’s preference flow data to the latest first preference totals being released by the ECQ.</p> <p>In this post I will provide some analysis of these flows compared to 2020, and also look at the dramatic increase in swing that occurred on election night as pre-poll centre counts began to arrive.</p> <p>As at the close of counting on Monday, the swing against Labor on polling day votes was 4.9%, but 8.6% for Pre-polls and 10.3% on the initial count of postal votes. That explains why the swing rose through the evening.</p> <p>There’s more on vote by type and preference flows inside the post.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-preference-flows-and-vote-by-type-compared-to-2020/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8099" class="post-8099 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-queensland tag-convenience-voting tag-early-voting tag-election tag-election-night-counting tag-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/early-voting-and-how-tonights-queensland-election-count-might-unfold/" rel="bookmark">Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-26T13:28:55+11:00" content="2024-10-26">October 26, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-26T16:15:23+11:00">October 26, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>As usual I put this post here for the information of the tens of thousands of people Google sends here on election night.</p> <p>I won’t be posting here tonight as I will be part of the ABC’s live Queensland election coverage. The broadcast will start at 6pm Queensland time on the ABC’s main channel. It will also be available on the ABC Newschannel, from 6pm in Queensland, <del datetime="2024-10-26T03:54:45+00:00">5pm</del> 7pm in the southern Daylight saving time states, and the equivalent live time in other states.,</p> <p>In this post I have a wrap of the final early voting figures, and a few warnings on how tonight’s count will unfold. Polling day counting will report quickly but the giant counts required for pre-poll voting centres will take longer to finish.</p> <p>There is every chance that Labor’s results will look strong early in the evening, only to fade with later pre-poll vote counting.</p> <p>There will also be a full results service at the<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld-election-2024"> ABC’s Queensland election site.</a><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/early-voting-and-how-tonights-queensland-election-count-might-unfold/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8050" class="post-8050 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld-2024-tracking-the-early-and-postal-vote/" rel="bookmark">QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-17T13:39:12+11:00" content="2024-10-17">October 17, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-25T14:27:29+11:00">October 25, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(Post first published Thursday 17 October but will be updated each daily with 2024 figures.)</p> <p>(UPDATED Friday 25 October 12:30pm – with one day of pre-polling to go. Totals now at 1,385,588 early votes representing 37.6% of enrolment have been taken, up from 33.2% to the same day in 2020. Applications for postal votes have closed and the rate of applications is down from 26.8% in 2020 to 18.8% in 2024. So far 33.9% of postal votes have been returned.)</p> <p>The 2020 Queensland election was conducted in the first year of Covid restrictions. As a Covid measure, the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) allowed an extended period for postal vote applications. The period for applications in 2024 reverted to usual period starting with the writ issue in early October. Postal vote applications close in Queensland on the day that pre-poll voting starts, two weeks before polling day.</p> <p>The chart below shows that there is a small increase in pre-poll voting to date, perhaps reflecting the lower rate of postal voting. Further information inside the post.</p> <p><iframe title="QLD 2020 - Accumulated Early Vote % by Day" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-iVgdE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iVgdE/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="440" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld-2024-tracking-the-early-and-postal-vote/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7333" class="post-7333 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-local-government category-queensland tag-brisbane-city-council tag-by-elections tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-local-government tag-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-election-results-coverage-for-brisbane-city-council-and-queensland-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-16T12:25:45+11:00" content="2024-03-16">March 16, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-19T17:36:31+11:00">March 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az">ABC Results site is now live here.</a></p> <p><strong>Updated Tuesday 19 March 5pm AEDT</strong></p> <p>The tables below summarises the result. There are updates on latest figures being logged inside the post.</p> <h3>Results Summary</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala by-election</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>Labor retain</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West by-election</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>LNP GAIN</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/lm">Brisbane Lord Mayor</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>Adrian Schrinner re-elected</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Brisbane Wards</td> <td class="left"><strong>LNP retain majority</strong></td> </tr> </table> <h3>Brisbane Council – Wards Won by Party</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td></td> <td class="centre ptyblue">LNP</td> <td class="centre ptyred">ALP</td> <td class="centre ptylightgreen">GRN</td> <td class="centre ptyblack">IND</td> <td class="centre ptyblack">Doubt</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Wards won</td> <td class="centre">17</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">2</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Leading</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Brisbane Wards – Councillors Elected</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <thead> <th class="left">Ward</th> <th class="left">Margin and Incumbent</th> <th class="left">Result</th> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/brac">Bracken Ridge</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Sandy Landers</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/cala">Calamvale</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Angela Owen</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">Labor GAIN</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/cent">Central</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Vicki Howard</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/chan">Chandler</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Ryan Murphy</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/coor">Coorparoo</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Fiona Cunningham</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/deag">Deagon</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Jared Cassidy</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/dobo">Doboy</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Lisa Atwood</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/enog">Enoggera</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Andrew Wines</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/fore">Forest Lake</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Charles Strunk</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/hami">Hamilton</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Julia Dixon</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/holl">Holland Park</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Krista Adams</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/jamb">Jamboree</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Sarah Hutton</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/macg">Macgregor</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Steven Huang</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/marc">Marchant</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Danita Parry</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/mcdo">McDowall</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Tracy Davis</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/moor">Moorooka</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Steve Griffiths</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/morn">Morningside</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Lucy Collier</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/nort">Northgate</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Adam Allan</td> <td class="left">LNP ahead</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/padd">Paddington</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Clare Jenkinson</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptylightgreen">Greens GAIN</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/pull">Pullenvale</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Greg Adermann</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/runc">Runcorn</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Kim Marx</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tenn">Tennyson</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">IND</span> – Nicole Jonhston</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tgab">The Gabba</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span> – Trina Massey</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tgap">The Gap</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Steve Toomey</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/walt">Walter Taylor</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Penny Wolff</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/wynn">Wynnum-Manly</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Sara Whitmee</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP gain</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><iframe title="2024 Brisbane City Council Election - Ward Results" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-wgHQl" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wgHQl/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="557" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-election-results-coverage-for-brisbane-city-council-and-queensland-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7315" class="post-7315 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-queensland tag-by-elections tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-queensland tag-swings layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-by-elections-since-1992/" rel="bookmark">Queensland By-elections since 1992</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T11:23:05+11:00" content="2024-03-15">March 15, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-15T11:51:09+11:00">March 15, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>As well as voting in the Queensland local government elections this weekend, voters in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West will vote at state by-elections to elect new MPs.</p> <p>“Informed sources” are making predictions of big swings. There are hints from Labor at possible seat losses, from the LNP about falling short of the required swing. The sort of expectations management now common ahead of important by-elections.</p> <p>The results of both by-elections, and the Brisbane City Council election, will be watched closely. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guides">On Saturday night you can follow my coverage of the elections at the ABC’s Brisbane City Council and By-elections live results site.</a> I’ll also be joining Steve Austin on ABC Brisbane local radio analysing the results.</p> <p>The election night dissections will be followed by the reports of the auguries on Sunday. What will they be able to divine about the fate of the Labor government and new Premier Steven Miles at the state election set for October?</p> <p>The Inala by-election (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">preview here</a>) is to select a replacement for former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala has been Labor’s safest seat for three decades and its margin of 28.2% looks insurmountable.</p> <p>At greater risk further along the Warrego Highway is Ipswich West (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">preview here</a>). Former member Jim Madden has been followed by controversy before resigning and the seat’s margin of 14.3% is half that of Inala. It is a seat that both the LNP and One Nation have held in the past.</p> <p>Looking back at Queensland by-elections since 1992, they provide a mixed bag of results to measure against this weekend’s results. There have been 21 by-elections since 1992, eight resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. Twelve of these by-elections were two-party preferred contests like this weekend’s pair, and six saw incumbents defeated.</p> <p>In summary –</p> <ul> <li>Of the 12 two-party preferred by-elections,<strong> the average swing against the government of the day was 6.5%</strong>.</li> <li>The seven by-elections while Labor was in government saw <strong> an average swing of 5.0% against Labor government</strong>.</li> <li>The five by-elections while the LNP was in government produced <strong>an average swing of 8.5% against the LNP government</strong>.</li> <li>Of the seven by-elections in government held seats, <strong>the average swing against the government was 10.1%</strong> Five were in Labor seats in Labor governments and an average of 6.9%, the two LNP seats while the LNP governed averaging 18.2%.</li> <li>The Beattie Labor government lost three seats after big swings at by-elections between 2005 and 2006. Labor lost Chatsworth in 2005 after a 13.9% swing, Redcliffe the same day with an 8.4% swing, and Gaven in April 2006 after an 8.3% swing. <strong>Despite the losses, Labor re-gained all three seats at the 2006 election.</strong></li> <li>The Newman LNP government lost two seats to huge swings at by-elections in 2014, losing Redcliffe to a 17.2% swing, and Stafford shortly after to an even bigger 19.1% swing. <strong>Both results accurately predicted the result of the next state election in January 2015.</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-by-elections-since-1992/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Queensland By-elections since 1992</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7303" class="post-7303 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-federal-elections category-queensland category-south-australia category-tasmania tag-brisbane-city-council tag-by-elections-dunkley tag-cook tag-dunstan tag-election tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-tasmania layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/by-elections-brisbane-and-tasmanian-elections/" rel="bookmark">By-elections, Brisbane and Tasmanian Elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-11T13:11:34+11:00" content="2024-03-11">March 11, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-11T13:53:00+11:00">March 11, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>I’m publishing a lot of material on different elections over on my ABC Election site.</p> <p>In this post I’ll point to all the new material and extract a few recent updates from each site.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/by-elections-brisbane-and-tasmanian-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">By-elections, Brisbane and Tasmanian Elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7294" class="post-7294 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-queensland tag-by-election tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-state-by-elections-inala-and-ipswich-west/" rel="bookmark">Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-02T11:44:38+11:00" content="2024-03-02">March 2, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-02T11:53:42+11:00">March 2, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>As well as the Brisbane City Council elections on 16 March, the Queensland Labor Party faces two state by-elections the same day.</p> <p>The Inala by-election has been brought on by the resignation of former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala is Labor’s safest seat with a massive margin of 28.2% and the party’s primary vote in 2020 was 67%. Inala is so safe that it was one of the seven seats Labor retained at the party’s 2012 landslide defeat. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">You can read my by-election profile for Inala here.</a></p> <p>The Ipswich West by-election has been caused by the resignation of backbencher Jim Madden. The Labor margin is 14.3% and the first preference vote in 2020 50.1%. It was one of the seats lost to the LNP for a single term in 2012 and was also lost to One Nation for a single term in 1998. One Nation finished second in Ipswich West as recently as 2017. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">You can read my by-election profile for Ipswich West here.</a>.</p> <p>I will be covering both by-elections as part of my Brisbane City Council result coverage on 16 March. The reason for this separate post is to highlight material I’ve been adding to both by-election pages on preferences.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-state-by-elections-inala-and-ipswich-west/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7263" class="post-7263 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-federal-elections category-queensland category-redistribution category-south-australia category-tasmania tag-brisbane tag-by-elections tag-dunkley tag-dunstan tag-tasmania layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/update-on-looming-elections-by-elections-and-redistributions/" rel="bookmark">Update on looming elections, by-elections and redistributions</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-02-24T13:41:47+11:00" content="2024-02-24">February 24, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-01T17:33:15+11:00">March 1, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>March will be a big month for elections. It’s keeping me very busy.</p> <p>The biggest election in terms of voter numbers is Brisbane City Council, followed by the Tasmanian state election.</p> <p>There is also a Federal by-election in Dunkley, two Queensland state by-elections and one South Australian state by-election.</p> <p>Over the horizon beyond Easter are the Cook federal by-election, and now an announcement on the start to the Northern Territory federal redistribution.</p> <p>I have ABC websites and blog posts being updated on all these electoral events. This post is an opportunity to highlight the on-going work I’m doing on each of these events, as well as pointing out some of the most recent updates.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/update-on-looming-elections-by-elections-and-redistributions/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Update on looming elections, by-elections and redistributions</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div><ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/australia-elections-state/queensland/page/2/">2</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/australia-elections-state/queensland/page/3/">3</a></li> <li><a rel="next" class="next page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/australia-elections-state/queensland/page/2/">Next »</a></li> </ul> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div 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