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</div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-7034" class="post-7034 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution category-victoria tag-federal tag-redistribution tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/submissions-published-for-victorian-federal-redistribution/" rel="bookmark">Submissions Published for Victorian Federal Redistribution</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-11-27T21:13:26+11:00" content="2023-11-27">November 27, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-11-28T12:34:19+11:00">November 28, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Victoria is currently undergoing a redistribution of federal electoral boundaries that will reduce the state’s representation from 39 seats to 38.</p> <p>This has come about due to Section 24 of the Constitution which determines state representation in the House of Representatives. I published a post in June <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/abs-population-statistics-confirm-wa-to-gain-a-new-house-seat-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-seats/">explaining how the allocation of House of Representatives seats to states is assessed one year into each term or parliament</a>.</p> <p>Using the formula set out in Section 24 of the Constitution, it was determined that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat for the next Federal election, while Western Australia will gain a seat. The size of the House of Representatives will be reduced from 151 seats to 150.</p> <p>The change in numbers has triggered a redistribution in all three states. In the last month I have published posts looking at the major party proposals for <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw-redistribution-submissions-which-seats-are-for-the-chop/">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/submissions-published-for-wa-federal-redistribution/">Western Australia</a>. Both posts include links to earlier posts looking at how projected enrolment numbers will drive the redistributions in each state.</p> <p>With today’s release by the AEC of submissions to the Victorian redistribution, it is time to look at what the major parties have suggested for Victoria. For background on how the Victorian redistribution might unfold, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/projected-enrolment-data-released-for-victorian-redistribution/">you can read my previous post on the projected enrolment data</a>.</p> <p>I had planned to write a summary of the various submission yesterday but the submissions were not published until evening. I will update this post with key suggestions made in the party submissions. <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2023/vic/suggestions.htm">You can find all 63 lodged submissions at the AEC website</a>. The submissions are now open for comment by the public as set out on the AEC website.</p> <p>You will note there is no Liberal Party submission. I understand the party missed the deadline for submission, but you can find what they proposed to submit on the <a href="https://vic.liberal.org.au/media-releases/federal-redistribution-submission">Victorian Liberal Party’s website</a>. Having missed the suggestions deadline, the Liberal Party will submit it as part of the Comments process before the Commissioners draw draft boundaries.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/submissions-published-for-victorian-federal-redistribution/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Submissions Published for Victorian Federal Redistribution</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7022" class="post-7022 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution category-western-australia tag-electoral-boundaries tag-federal tag-redistribution tag-wa tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/submissions-published-for-wa-federal-redistribution/" rel="bookmark">Submissions Published for WA Federal redistribution</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-11-20T15:32:42+11:00" content="2023-11-20">November 20, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-11-20T16:41:21+11:00">November 20, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Proposals for the re-draw of WA鈥檚 federal electoral boundaries closed on Friday with submissions <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2023/wa/suggestions.htm">published today by the Australian Electoral Commission today</a>. </p> <p>There are 21 submissions in all. Understandably the greatest interest is in the proposals submitted by the Liberal and Labor Parties.</p> <p>Both parties create a new seat based on the Darling Range in Perth鈥檚 east. The Liberal submission is for a new seat named <strong>Court</strong> that extends east into rural areas. Labor鈥檚 proposal is for a new seat called <strong>Farmer</strong> that runs south west into the Perth metropolitan area.</p> <p>(<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/projected-enrolment-data-released-for-redistribution-of-wa-federal-electoral-boundaries/">I published a post several months ago on how the redistribution might unfold based on enrolment numbers.</a>)</p> <p>And the two submissions adopt different strategies in key parts of the Perth metropolitan area.</p> <p><strong>Note</strong> – maps taken from party submissions. The Liberal Party submission included maps of all proposed divisions. The Labor Party’s submission only included a map of the proposed Farmer.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/submissions-published-for-wa-federal-redistribution/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Submissions Published for WA Federal redistribution</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6972" class="post-6972 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-informal-voting category-predicting-elections category-referendums tag-australia tag-convenience-voting tag-elections tag-postal-voting tag-pre-poll-voting tag-referendum tag-vote-by-type layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-changing-pattern-of-results-by-vote-type/" rel="bookmark">The Changing Pattern of Results by Vote Type</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-11-07T13:00:10+11:00" content="2023-11-07">November 7, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-11-07T13:25:50+11:00">November 7, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With counting complete, the Australian Electoral Commission has returned the writ to the Governor-General formally declaring “The Voice” referendum defeated.</p> <p>The final count has confirmed what was observed on election night, that there was a massive difference between how people voted in person on polling day compared to votes cast in the two weeks of early voting. </p> <p>My professional interest in this difference is the impact the growing and variable gap between polling day and early votes has on when we know results on election night.</p> <p>As I <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vote-by-type-at-the-1999-republic-referendum-plus-hhw-referendum-night-will-unfold/">outlined in a previous post</a>, 83.8% of votes were cast on polling day at the 1999 Republic referendum. In 2023 the figure was close to half at only 43.7%.</p> <p>There has been a huge increase in pre-poll voting since its availability was first liberalised in 2010. Over the 13 years since, the number of polling day votes has declined. While pre-poll voting centres are counted and reported on election night, the larger number of votes taken per centre compared to polling places means pre-polls generally report later in the evening. At recent by-elections, all polling places have reported their results before the first pre-poll centre reported.</p> <p>With pre-poll counting revealing different trends, and unreliably different trends as well, it means that close elections will take longer to call on election night.</p> <p>Pre-poll and postal voting has always had a conservative lean compared to election day voting, but never have we seen a gap as wide as at the referendum.</p> <p>When non-polling day votes made up less than one-in-five votes, you could factor in the last election’s postal and pre-poll trend safe in the knowledge there were not enough votes to shift a result more than a few percentage points.</p> <p>With early votes now outnumbering polling day votes, an early prediction based on polling day votes can be significantly shifted. That is shown clearly by the referendum.</p> <p>At the 2022 Federal election, the Labor two-party preferred vote declined 1.6 percentage points between the tally of polling day votes and the final count. That was high by past election trends.</p> <p>But the shift was even greater at the referendum. The Yes% shifting down a remarkable 3.8% between the tally of polling day votes and the final result.</p> <p>The table below breaks down the referendum Yes vote by vote type and compares it to the same categories for Labor’s two-party preferred vote at last year’s Federal election.</p> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Vote By Type – 2022 Federal Election and 2023 Referendum Compared</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre" colspan="2">Percent of Total Votes</th> <th class="centre" colspan="2">Percent of Vote</th> <th class="right"></th> </tr> <tr> <th class="left">Vote Type</th> <th class="right" width="12%">2022</th> <th class="right" width="12%">2023</th> <th class="right" width="12%">ALP 2PP</th> <th class="right" width="12%">Yes</th> <th class="right" width="12%">“Swing”</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Polling Day Ordinary</td> <td class="right">45.1</td> <td class="right">43.7</td> <td class="right">53.7</td> <td class="right">43.7</td> <td class="right">-10.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Pre-Poll Ordinary</td> <td class="right">33.3</td> <td class="right">35.3</td> <td class="right">50.6</td> <td class="right">35.4</td> <td class="right">-15.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Postal</td> <td class="right">14.3</td> <td class="right">11.0</td> <td class="right">49.1</td> <td class="right">33.1</td> <td class="right">-16.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Pre-Poll Declaration</td> <td class="right">3.6</td> <td class="right">4.3</td> <td class="right">53.3</td> <td class="right">44.7</td> <td class="right">-8.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Absent Votes</td> <td class="right">3.2</td> <td class="right">4.4</td> <td class="right">57.4</td> <td class="right">48.9</td> <td class="right">-8.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Other vote types</td> <td class="right">0.5</td> <td class="right">1.3</td> <td class="right">59.1</td> <td class="right">47.7</td> <td class="right">-11.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><strong>Total</strong></td> <td class="right"><strong>..</strong></td> <td class="right"><strong>..</strong></td> <td class="right"><strong>52.1</strong></td> <td class="right"><strong>39.9</strong></td> <td class="right"><strong>-12.2</strong></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-changing-pattern-of-results-by-vote-type/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">The Changing Pattern of Results by Vote Type</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6978" class="post-6978 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-predicting-elections category-redistribution tag-bennelong tag-electorate-maps tag-redistributions layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/bennelong-map-illustrates-changing-map-technology/" rel="bookmark">Bennelong map illustrates changing map technology</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-11-03T11:13:50+11:00" content="2023-11-03">November 3, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-11-03T11:40:44+11:00">November 3, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>While undertaking a clean out of files ahead of an office move, I found this map of Bennelong’s shifting electorate boundaries.</p> <p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap.png" alt="" width="3637" height="2264" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6979" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap.png 3637w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap-300x187.png 300w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap-1024x637.png 1024w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap-768x478.png 768w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap-1536x956.png 1536w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BennelongMap-2048x1275.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 3637px) 100vw, 3637px" /></p> <p>It shows how far on-line mapping technology has come in two decades. What I once compiled with photocopied maps, sticky tape and highlighter pens, I now publish as an easy to navigate on-line tool.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/bennelong-map-illustrates-changing-map-technology/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Bennelong map illustrates changing map technology</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2023/11/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_67f60f037a65f" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Name*<br /><input type="text" name="esfpx_name" class="ig_es_form_field_name" placeholder="" value="" 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