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class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Related parameters</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Related_parameters-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Related parameters subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Related_parameters-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Net_reproduction_rate" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Net_reproduction_rate"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Net reproduction rate</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Net_reproduction_rate-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Total_period_fertility_rate" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Total_period_fertility_rate"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Total period fertility rate</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Total_period_fertility_rate-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Tempo_effect" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Tempo_effect"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.1</span> <span>Tempo effect</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Tempo_effect-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Replacement_rates" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Replacement_rates"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3</span> <span>Replacement rates</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Replacement_rates-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Lowest-low_fertility" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Lowest-low_fertility"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Lowest-low fertility</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Lowest-low_fertility-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Population-lag_effect" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Population-lag_effect"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Population-lag effect</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Population-lag_effect-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Influencing_factors" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Influencing_factors"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Influencing factors</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Influencing_factors-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-National_efforts_to_increase_or_decrease_fertility" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#National_efforts_to_increase_or_decrease_fertility"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>National efforts to increase or decrease fertility</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-National_efforts_to_increase_or_decrease_fertility-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-History_and_future_projections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#History_and_future_projections"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>History and future projections</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-History_and_future_projections-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle History and future projections subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-History_and_future_projections-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Before_1800" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Before_1800"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.1</span> <span>Before 1800</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Before_1800-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-1800_to_1950" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#1800_to_1950"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.2</span> <span>1800 to 1950</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-1800_to_1950-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-1950_to_the_present_and_projections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#1950_to_the_present_and_projections"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.3</span> <span>1950 to the present and projections</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-1950_to_the_present_and_projections-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Total_fertility_rates_in_2050_and_2100" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Total_fertility_rates_in_2050_and_2100"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.3.1</span> <span>Total fertility rates in 2050 and 2100</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Total_fertility_rates_in_2050_and_2100-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-By_region" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#By_region"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>By region</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-By_region-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle By region subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-By_region-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Africa" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Africa"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.1</span> <span>Africa</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Africa-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Asia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Asia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2</span> <span>Asia</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Asia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Eastern_Asia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Eastern_Asia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.1</span> <span>Eastern Asia</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Eastern_Asia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-China" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#China"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.1.1</span> <span>China</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-China-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Japan" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Japan"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.1.2</span> <span>Japan</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Japan-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-South_Korea" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#South_Korea"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.1.3</span> <span>South Korea</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-South_Korea-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Southern_Asia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Southern_Asia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.2</span> <span>Southern Asia</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Southern_Asia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Bangladesh" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Bangladesh"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.2.1</span> <span>Bangladesh</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Bangladesh-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-India" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#India"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.2.2</span> <span>India</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-India-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Iran" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Iran"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.2.3</span> <span>Iran</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Iran-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Western_Asia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Western_Asia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.2.3</span> <span>Western Asia</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Western_Asia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Europe" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Europe"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.3</span> <span>Europe</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Europe-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.4</span> <span>Latin America and the Caribbean</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Northern_America" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Northern_America"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.5</span> <span>Northern America</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Northern_America-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Canada" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Canada"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.5.1</span> <span>Canada</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Canada-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-United_States" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#United_States"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.5.2</span> <span>United States</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-United_States-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Oceania" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Oceania"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.6</span> <span>Oceania</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Oceania-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Australia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Australia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8.6.1</span> <span>Australia</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Australia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">9</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">10</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Further_reading" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Further_reading"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">11</span> <span>Further reading</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Further_reading-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">12</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Total fertility rate</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" 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Available in 38 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-38" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">38 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%84_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%84%D9%8A" title="معدل الخصوبة الكلي – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="معدل الخصوبة الكلي" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bn mw-list-item"><a href="https://bn.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AE%E0%A7%81%E0%A6%A6%E0%A6%AF%E0%A6%BC_%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%A8_%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B7%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0_%E0%A6%B9%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0" title="সমুদয় প্রজনন ক্ষমতার হার – Bangla" lang="bn" hreflang="bn" data-title="সমুদয় প্রজনন ক্ষমতার হার" data-language-autonym="বাংলা" data-language-local-name="Bangla" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>বাংলা</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-be mw-list-item"><a href="https://be.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D1%83%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D1%8B_%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8D%D1%84%D1%96%D1%86%D1%8B%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82_%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%86%D1%96" title="Сумарны каэфіцыент нараджальнасці – Belarusian" lang="be" hreflang="be" data-title="Сумарны каэфіцыент нараджальнасці" data-language-autonym="Беларуская" data-language-local-name="Belarusian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Беларуская</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bg mw-list-item"><a href="https://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B5%D1%84%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82" title="Тотален коефициент на плодовитост – Bulgarian" lang="bg" hreflang="bg" data-title="Тотален коефициент на плодовитост" data-language-autonym="Български" data-language-local-name="Bulgarian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Български</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxa_de_fecunditat" title="Taxa de fecunditat – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Taxa de fecunditat" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilitetsrate" title="Fertilitetsrate – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Fertilitetsrate" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilit%C3%A4tsrate" title="Fertilitätsrate – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Fertilitätsrate" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-et mw-list-item"><a href="https://et.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summaarne_s%C3%BCndimuskordaja" title="Summaarne sündimuskordaja – Estonian" lang="et" hreflang="et" data-title="Summaarne sündimuskordaja" data-language-autonym="Eesti" data-language-local-name="Estonian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Eesti</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasa_de_fertilidad" title="Tasa de fertilidad – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Tasa de fertilidad" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eo mw-list-item"><a href="https://eo.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fekundindico" title="Fekundindico – Esperanto" lang="eo" hreflang="eo" data-title="Fekundindico" data-language-autonym="Esperanto" data-language-local-name="Esperanto" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Esperanto</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eu mw-list-item"><a href="https://eu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ugalkortasun-tasa_oso" title="Ugalkortasun-tasa oso – Basque" lang="eu" hreflang="eu" data-title="Ugalkortasun-tasa oso" data-language-autonym="Euskara" data-language-local-name="Basque" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Euskara</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%86_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C_%DA%A9%D9%84" title="میزان باروری کل – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="میزان باروری کل" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taux_de_f%C3%A9condit%C3%A9" title="Taux de fécondité – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Taux de fécondité" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-gl mw-list-item"><a href="https://gl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxa_de_fertilidade" title="Taxa de fertilidade – Galician" lang="gl" hreflang="gl" data-title="Taxa de fertilidade" data-language-autonym="Galego" data-language-local-name="Galician" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Galego</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%95%A9%EA%B3%84%EC%B6%9C%EC%82%B0%EC%9C%A8" title="합계출산율 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="합계출산율" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hr mw-list-item"><a href="https://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stopa_plodnosti" title="Stopa plodnosti – Croatian" lang="hr" hreflang="hr" data-title="Stopa plodnosti" data-language-autonym="Hrvatski" data-language-local-name="Croatian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Hrvatski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angka_kesuburan_total" title="Angka kesuburan total – 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class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%90%88%E8%A8%88%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E5%87%BA%E7%94%9F%E7%8E%87" title="合計特殊出生率 – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="合計特殊出生率" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>日本語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-no mw-list-item"><a href="https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samlet_fruktbarhetstall" title="Samlet fruktbarhetstall – Norwegian Bokmål" lang="nb" hreflang="nb" data-title="Samlet fruktbarhetstall" data-language-autonym="Norsk bokmål" data-language-local-name="Norwegian Bokmål" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Norsk bokmål</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nn mw-list-item"><a href="https://nn.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samla_f%C3%B8dselstal" title="Samla fødselstal – Norwegian Nynorsk" lang="nn" hreflang="nn" 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data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Appearance</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Number of children a woman is expected to have barring select circumstances</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Not to be confused with <a href="/wiki/Birth_rate" title="Birth rate">birth rate</a>.</div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg/330px-Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg.png" decoding="async" width="330" height="169" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg/495px-Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg/660px-Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1104" data-file-height="566" /></a><figcaption>A 2023 map of countries by fertility rate. Blue indicates negative fertility rates. Red indicates positive rates.</figcaption></figure> <p>The <b>total fertility rate</b> (<b>TFR</b>) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific <a href="/wiki/Fertility" title="Fertility">fertility</a> rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life. </p><p>As of 2023, the total fertility rate varied widely across the world, from 0.7 in <a href="/wiki/South_Korea" title="South Korea">South Korea</a>, to 6.1 in <a href="/wiki/Niger" title="Niger">Niger</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:11_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Fertility tends to be inversely correlated with levels of economic development. Historically, <a href="/wiki/Developed_countries" class="mw-redirect" title="Developed countries">developed countries</a> have significantly lower fertility rates, generally correlated with greater wealth, education, <a href="/wiki/Urbanization" title="Urbanization">urbanization</a>, and other factors. Conversely, in <a href="/wiki/Least_developed_countries" title="Least developed countries">least developed countries</a>, fertility rates tend to be higher. Families desire children for their labor and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to <a href="/wiki/Contraceptives" class="mw-redirect" title="Contraceptives">contraceptives</a>, generally lower levels of <a href="/wiki/Female_education" title="Female education">female education</a>, and lower rates of female employment. It does not significantly correlate with any particular religion. </p><p>From antiquity to the beginning of the industrial revolution, around the year 1800, total fertility rates of 4.5 to 7.5 were common around the world.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <sup>76-77,</sup><sup id="cite_ref-:11_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> After this TFR declined only slightly and up until the 1960’s the global average TFR was still 5.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>  Since then, global average TFR has dropped steadily to less than half that number, 2.3 births per woman in 2023.<sup id="cite_ref-:11_1-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The <a href="/wiki/United_Nations" title="United Nations">United Nations</a> predicts that global fertility will continue to decline for the remainder of this century and reach a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100, and that <a href="/wiki/World_population" title="World population">world population</a> will peak in 2084.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Parameter_characteristics">Parameter characteristics</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Parameter characteristics"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is not based on the actual fertility of a specific group of women, as that would require waiting until they have completed <a href="/wiki/Childbearing" class="mw-redirect" title="Childbearing">childbearing</a>. It also does not involve counting the total number of children born over their lifetime. Instead, the TFR is based on the age-specific fertility rates of women in their "child-bearing years," typically considered to be ages 15–44 in international statistical usage. </p><p>The TFR is a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who experiences the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15–49 that were recorded for a specific population in a given year. It represents the average number of children a woman would potentially have if she were to go through all her childbearing years in a single year, subject to the age-specific fertility rates for that year. In simpler terms, the TFR is the number of children a woman would have if she were to experience the prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year and survived throughout her childbearing years. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Related_parameters">Related parameters</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Related parameters"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Net_reproduction_rate">Net reproduction rate</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Net reproduction rate"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries,_2010.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png/300px-Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="172" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png/450px-Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_Select_Countries%2C_2010.png 2x" data-file-width="587" data-file-height="337" /></a><figcaption>The total fertility rate for selected countries, 2010 <sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style/Dates_and_numbers#Chronological_items" title="Wikipedia:Manual of Style/Dates and numbers"><span title="The date of the event predicted near this tag has passed. (June 2020)">needs update</span></a></i>]</sup></figcaption></figure> <p>An alternative measure of fertility is the <a href="/wiki/Net_reproduction_rate" title="Net reproduction rate">net reproduction rate</a> (NRR), which calculates the number of daughters a female would have in her lifetime if she were subject to prevailing age-specific fertility and mortality rates in a given year. When the NRR is exactly 1, each generation of females is precisely replacing itself. </p><p>The NRR is not as commonly used as the TFR, but it is particularly relevant in cases where the number of male babies born is very high due to <a href="/wiki/Gender_imbalance" class="mw-redirect" title="Gender imbalance">gender imbalance</a> and <a href="/wiki/Sex_selection" title="Sex selection">sex selection</a>. This is a significant consideration in world population dynamics, especially given the high level of gender imbalance in the heavily populated nations of China and India. The <a href="/wiki/Gross_reproduction_rate" title="Gross reproduction rate">gross reproduction rate</a> (GRR) is the same as the NRR, except that, like the TFR, it disregards <a href="/wiki/Life_expectancy" title="Life expectancy">life expectancy</a>.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Total_period_fertility_rate">Total period fertility rate</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Total period fertility rate"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The TFR, sometimes called TPFR—total period fertility rate, is a better index of fertility than the <a href="/wiki/Crude_birth_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="Crude birth rate">crude birth rate</a> (annual number of births per thousand population) because it is independent of the age structure of the population, but it is a poorer estimate of actual completed family size than the total cohort fertility rate, which is obtained by summing the age-specific fertility rates that actually applied to each cohort as they aged through time. </p><p>In particular, the TFR does not necessarily predict how many children young women now will eventually have, as their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now. However, the TFR is a reasonable summary of current fertility levels. TFR and long term population growth rate, <i>g</i>, are closely related. For a population structure in a steady state, growth rate equals <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \log(\mathrm {TFR} /2)/X_{m}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>log</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">T</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">F</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">R</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>X</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \log(\mathrm {TFR} /2)/X_{m}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/0c19bdb6a202692c71c08fc03b7a1b959aade4de" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:16.774ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \log(\mathrm {TFR} /2)/X_{m}}"></span>, where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle X_{m}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>X</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle X_{m}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/fb527ad02937e44b7e1e06f84afe6ca5b4875606" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:3.599ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle X_{m}}"></span> is the mean age for childbearing women.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Tempo_effect">Tempo effect</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Tempo effect"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility#Tempo_effect" title="Sub-replacement fertility">Sub-replacement fertility § Tempo effect</a></div> <p>The TPFR (total <i>period</i> fertility rate) is affected by a <a href="/wiki/Tempo_effect" class="mw-redirect" title="Tempo effect">tempo effect</a>—if age of childbearing increases, and life cycle fertility is unchanged, then while the age of childbearing is increasing, TPFR will be lower, because the births are occurring later, and then the age of childbearing stops increasing, the TPFR will increase, due to the deferred births occurring in the later period, even though the life cycle fertility has been unchanged. In other words, the TPFR is a misleading measure of life cycle fertility when childbearing age is changing, due to this statistical artifact. This is a significant factor in some countries, such as the <a href="/wiki/Czech_Republic" title="Czech Republic">Czech Republic</a> and <a href="/wiki/Spain" title="Spain">Spain</a> in the 1990s. Some measures seek to adjust for this timing effect to gain a better measure of life-cycle fertility.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Replacement_rates">Replacement rates <span class="anchor" id="Replacement_rate"></span></h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Replacement rates"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility" title="Sub-replacement fertility">Sub-replacement fertility</a></div> <p>Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels, assuming that mortality rates remain constant and net migration is zero.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2003, the replacement fertility rate was 2.1 births per female for most developed countries (2.1 in the UK, for example), but could be as high as 3.5 in undeveloped countries because of higher <a href="/wiki/Mortality_rate" title="Mortality rate">mortality rates</a>, especially <a href="/wiki/Child_mortality" title="Child mortality">child mortality</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:4_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:4-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The global average for the replacement total fertility rate, eventually leading to a stable global population, for 2010–2015, was 2.3 children per female.<sup id="cite_ref-:4_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:4-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:1_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Lowest-low_fertility">Lowest-low fertility</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Lowest-low fertility"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The term <i>lowest-low fertility</i> is defined as a TFR at or below 1.3.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Lowest-low fertility is found almost exclusively within <a href="/wiki/East_Asian" class="mw-redirect" title="East Asian">East Asian</a> countries and <a href="/wiki/Southern_Europe" title="Southern Europe">Southern European</a> countries. The <a href="/wiki/Asian_Americans#Demographics" title="Asian Americans">East Asian American community</a> in the United States also exhibits lowest-low fertility.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> At one point in the late 20th century and early 21st century this was also observed in Eastern and Southern Europe. Since then, the fertility rate has risen in most countries of Europe.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However in 2023, Spain's TFR fell to 1.19,<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and Italy's TFR fell to 1.2 children per woman.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The lowest TFR recorded anywhere in the world in recorded history, is for the <a href="/wiki/Xiangyang_District,_Jiamusi" title="Xiangyang District, Jiamusi">Xiangyang district</a> of <a href="/wiki/Jiamusi" title="Jiamusi">Jiamusi</a> city (<a href="/wiki/Heilongjiang" title="Heilongjiang">Heilongjiang</a>, China) which had a TFR of 0.41 in 2000.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2023, South Korea's TFR was 0.72 the world's lowest for that year.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Outside Asia, the lowest TFR ever recorded was 0.80 for Eastern Germany in 1994. The low Eastern German value was influenced by a change to higher maternal age at birth, with the consequence that neither older cohorts (e.g. women born until the late 1960s), who often already had children, nor younger cohorts, who were postponing childbirth, had many children during that time. The total cohort fertility rate of each age <a href="/wiki/Cohort_(statistics)" title="Cohort (statistics)">cohort</a> of women in East Germany did not drop as significantly.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Population-lag_effect">Population-lag effect</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Population-lag effect"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png/240px-TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png" decoding="async" width="240" height="160" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png/360px-TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png/480px-TFR_vs_population_growth_rate.png 2x" data-file-width="1500" data-file-height="1000" /></a><figcaption>A plot of population growth rate vs total fertility rate (logarithmic), 2014. Symbol radius reflects the population size each country</figcaption></figure> <p>A population that maintained a TFR of 3.8 over an extended period, without a correspondingly high death or emigration rate, would increase rapidly, doubling period ~ 32 years. A population that maintained a TFR of 2.0 over a long time would decrease, unless it had a large enough immigration. </p><p>It may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in <a href="/wiki/Birth_rate" title="Birth rate">birth rate</a>, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples, who would now be in their childbearing years.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>This phenomenon carries forward for several generations and is called <a href="/wiki/Population_momentum" title="Population momentum">population momentum</a>, <i>population inertia,</i> or <i>population-lag effect</i>. This time-lag effect is of great importance to the growth rates of human populations.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>TFR (net) and long-term population growth rate, g, are closely related. For a population structure in a steady state and with zero migration, <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle g={\tfrac {\log({\text{TFR}}/2)}{{\text{X}}_{m}}}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>g</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mfrac> <mrow> <mi>log</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>TFR</mtext> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>X</mtext> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mstyle> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle g={\tfrac {\log({\text{TFR}}/2)}{{\text{X}}_{m}}}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/63c6307497174a647921e0d83f57720778aedf4d" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.505ex; width:13.545ex; height:4.509ex;" alt="{\textstyle g={\tfrac {\log({\text{TFR}}/2)}{{\text{X}}_{m}}}}"></span>, where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>X</mtext> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/8c0201646d3d2f7cf42874426bcb9f96015b71ff" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:3.418ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}"></span> is mean age for childbearing women and thus <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle P(t)=P(0)^{(gt)}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>P</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>=</mo> <mi>P</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>0</mn> <msup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>g</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle P(t)=P(0)^{(gt)}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/eb7231311142007e0667978a6c955c6ca10a97af" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:15.104ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\textstyle P(t)=P(0)^{(gt)}}"></span>. At the left side is shown the empirical relation between the two variables in a cross-section of countries with the most recent y-y growth rate. </p><p>The parameter <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{b}}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mi>b</mi> </mfrac> </mstyle> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{b}}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/46658ea9565d5e32bede89038328ca50a215da5f" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.338ex; width:1.658ex; height:3.676ex;" alt="{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{b}}}"></span> should be an estimate of the <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>X</mtext> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>m</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/8c0201646d3d2f7cf42874426bcb9f96015b71ff" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:3.418ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\text{X}}_{m}}"></span>; here equal to <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{0.02}}=50}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mn>0.02</mn> </mfrac> </mstyle> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mn>50</mn> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{0.02}}=50}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/7820ce8f53f32306f29b624318ec06af52a236e3" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.338ex; width:9.183ex; height:3.676ex;" alt="{\textstyle {\tfrac {1}{0.02}}=50}"></span> years, way off the mark because of population momentum. E.g. for <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle {\log }({\tfrac {\text{TFR}}{2}})=0}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>log</mi> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mfrac> <mtext>TFR</mtext> <mn>2</mn> </mfrac> </mstyle> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle {\log }({\tfrac {\text{TFR}}{2}})=0}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/195f392e921649a19592e622515e1a502d9fe33e" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.171ex; width:13.347ex; height:3.676ex;" alt="{\textstyle {\log }({\tfrac {\text{TFR}}{2}})=0}"></span>, g should be exactly zero, which is seen not to be the case.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (December 2021)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Influencing_factors">Influencing factors</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Influencing factors"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Fertility_factor_(demography)" title="Fertility factor (demography)">Fertility factor (demography)</a></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility" title="Sub-replacement fertility">Sub-replacement fertility</a></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:TFR_HDI.PNG" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/TFR_HDI.PNG/240px-TFR_HDI.PNG" decoding="async" width="240" height="245" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/TFR_HDI.PNG 1.5x" data-file-width="331" data-file-height="338" /></a><figcaption>Total fertility rate vs <a href="/wiki/Human_Development_Index" title="Human Development Index">Human Development Index</a> for selected countries, 2011</figcaption></figure> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Niameybapteme2.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Niameybapteme2.jpg/168px-Niameybapteme2.jpg" decoding="async" width="168" height="224" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Niameybapteme2.jpg/252px-Niameybapteme2.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Niameybapteme2.jpg/336px-Niameybapteme2.jpg 2x" data-file-width="500" data-file-height="667" /></a><figcaption><a href="/wiki/Niger" title="Niger">Niger</a> has the highest TFR in the world at 6.73, in 2023.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p><a href="/wiki/Fertility_factor_(demography)" title="Fertility factor (demography)">Fertility factors</a> are determinants of the number of children that an individual is likely to have. Fertility factors are mostly positive or negative <a href="/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation" title="Correlation does not imply causation">correlations without certain causations</a>.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Factors generally associated with increased fertility include the intention to have children, very high level of gender inequality, inter-generational transmission of values, <a href="/wiki/Marriage" title="Marriage">marriage</a> and <a href="/wiki/Cohabitation" title="Cohabitation">cohabitation</a>, maternal and social support, rural residence, pro family government programs, <a href="/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence" title="Fertility and intelligence">low IQ</a> and increased food production.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Factors generally associated with decreased fertility include rising <a href="/wiki/Income_and_fertility" title="Income and fertility">income</a>, value and attitude changes, education, <a href="/wiki/Female_labor_participation" class="mw-redirect" title="Female labor participation">female labor participation</a>, <a href="/wiki/Human_population_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Human population control">population control</a>, age, <a href="/wiki/Contraception" class="mw-redirect" title="Contraception">contraception</a>, partner reluctance to having children, a low level of gender inequality, and infertility. The effect of all these factors can be summarized with a plot of total fertility rate against <a href="/wiki/Human_Development_Index" title="Human Development Index">Human Development Index</a> (HDI) for a sample of countries. The chart shows that the two factors are <a href="/wiki/Inversely_correlated" class="mw-redirect" title="Inversely correlated">inversely correlated</a>, that is, in general, the lower a country's HDI the higher its fertility.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Another common way of summarizing the relationship between economic development and fertility is a plot of TFR against <a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product#Standard_of_living_and_GDP:_wealth_distribution_and_externalities" title="Gross domestic product">per capita GDP</a>, a proxy for standard of living. This chart shows that per capita GDP is also inversely correlated with fertility.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>The impact of human development on TFR can best be summarized by a quote from <a href="/wiki/Karan_Singh" title="Karan Singh">Karan Singh</a>, a former minister of population in India. At a 1974 United Nations population conference in Bucharest, he said "Development is the best <a href="/wiki/Contraceptive" class="mw-redirect" title="Contraceptive">contraceptive</a>."<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b6/CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png/220px-CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="154" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b6/CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png/330px-CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b6/CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png/440px-CIA_WFB_TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population_-_Simplified_2016.png 2x" data-file-width="8354" data-file-height="5835" /></a><figcaption>Total fertility rate vs per capita GDP for selected countries, 2016. Population size shown as bubble area. 30 largest countries in bold.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-cia.gov_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-cia.gov-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>Wealthy countries, those with high per capita GDP, usually have a lower fertility rate than poor countries, those with low per capita GDP. This may seem counter-intuitive. The inverse relationship between income and fertility has been termed a <i><a href="/wiki/Income_and_fertility#Demographic-economic_paradox" title="Income and fertility">demographic-economic paradox</a></i> because evolutionary biology suggests that greater means should enable the production of more offspring, not fewer.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Many of these factors may differ by region and social class. For instance, Scandinavian countries and France are among the least religious in the EU, but have the highest TFR, while the opposite is true about Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Poland and Spain.<sup id="cite_ref-europa.eu1_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-europa.eu1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="National_efforts_to_increase_or_decrease_fertility">National efforts to increase or decrease fertility</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: National efforts to increase or decrease fertility"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Governments have often set population targets, to either increase or decrease the total fertility rate, or to have certain ethnic or socioeconomic groups have a lower or higher fertility rate. Often such policies have been interventionist, and abusive. The most notorious <a href="/wiki/Natalist" class="mw-redirect" title="Natalist">natalist</a> policies of the 20th century include those in <a href="/wiki/Communist_Romania" class="mw-redirect" title="Communist Romania">communist Romania</a> and <a href="/wiki/Communist_Albania" class="mw-redirect" title="Communist Albania">communist Albania</a>, under <a href="/wiki/Nicolae_Ceau%C8%99escu" title="Nicolae Ceaușescu">Nicolae Ceaușescu</a> and <a href="/wiki/Enver_Hoxha" title="Enver Hoxha">Enver Hoxha</a> respectively.<sup id="cite_ref-Kligman_short_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kligman_short-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The natalist policy in Romania <a href="/wiki/Decree_770" title="Decree 770">between 1967 and 1989</a> was very aggressive, including outlawing abortion and contraception, routine pregnancy tests for women, <a href="/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness" title="Tax on childlessness">taxes on childlessness</a>, and legal discrimination against childless people. It resulted in large numbers of children put into <a href="/wiki/Romanian_orphanages" class="mw-redirect" title="Romanian orphanages">Romanian orphanages</a> by parents who could not cope with raising them, <a href="/wiki/Street_children" title="Street children">street children</a> in the 1990s, when many orphanages were closed and the children ended up on the streets, <a href="/wiki/Overcrowding" title="Overcrowding">overcrowding</a> in homes and schools, and over 9,000 women who died due to <a href="/wiki/Illegal_abortion" class="mw-redirect" title="Illegal abortion">illegal abortions</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Kligman_short_22-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kligman_short-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Conversely, in <a href="/wiki/China" title="China">China</a> the government sought to lower the fertility rate, and, as such, enacted the <a href="/wiki/One-child_policy" title="One-child policy">one-child policy</a> (1978–2015), which included abuses such as <a href="/wiki/Forced_abortion" title="Forced abortion">forced abortions</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In India, during the <a href="/wiki/The_Emergency_(India)" title="The Emergency (India)">national emergency of 1975</a>, a massive <a href="/wiki/Compulsory_sterilization#India" title="Compulsory sterilization">compulsory sterilization</a> drive was carried out in India, but it is considered to be a failure and is criticized for being an abuse of power.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="margin-left:0.1em; white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style/Words_to_watch#Unsupported_attributions" title="Wikipedia:Manual of Style/Words to watch"><span title="The material near this tag may use weasel words or too-vague attribution. (July 2023)">according to whom?</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Some governments have sought to regulate which groups of society could reproduce through <a href="/wiki/Eugenic" class="mw-redirect" title="Eugenic">eugenic</a> policies, including <a href="/wiki/Forced_sterilizations" class="mw-redirect" title="Forced sterilizations">forced sterilizations</a> of population groups they considered undesirable. Such policies were carried out against ethnic minorities in Europe and North America in the first half of the 20th century, and more recently in Latin America against the Indigenous population in the 1990s; in <a href="/wiki/Peru" title="Peru">Peru</a>, former President <a href="/wiki/Alberto_Fujimori" title="Alberto Fujimori">Alberto Fujimori</a> has been accused of <a href="/wiki/Genocide" title="Genocide">genocide</a> and <a href="/wiki/Crimes_against_humanity" title="Crimes against humanity">crimes against humanity</a> as a result of a sterilization program put in place by his administration targeting indigenous people (mainly the <a href="/wiki/Quechua_people" title="Quechua people">Quechua</a> and <a href="/wiki/Aymara_people" title="Aymara people">Aymara</a> people).<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Within these historical contexts, the notion of <a href="/wiki/Reproductive_rights" title="Reproductive rights">reproductive rights</a> has developed. Such rights are based on the concept that each person freely decides if, when, and how many children to have - not the state or religion. According to the <a href="/wiki/Office_of_the_United_Nations_High_Commissioner_for_Human_Rights" title="Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights">Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights</a>, reproductive rights "rest on the recognition of the basic rights of all couples and individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing and timing of their children and to have the information and means to do so, and the right to attain the highest standard of sexual and reproductive health. It also includes the right to make decisions concerning reproduction free of discrimination, coercion and violence, as expressed in human rights documents".<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History_and_future_projections">History and future projections</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: History and future projections"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>From around 10,000 BC to the beginning of the <a href="/wiki/Industrial_Revolution" title="Industrial Revolution">Industrial Revolution</a>, fertility rates around the world were high by 21st-century standards, ranging from 4.5 to 7.5 children per woman.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup>76-77,</sup>.<sup id="cite_ref-:11_1-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The onset of the Industrial Revolution around the year 1800 brought about what has come to be called the <a href="/wiki/Demographic_transition" title="Demographic transition">demographic transition</a>. This eventually led to a long-term decline in TFR in every region of the world that has continued in the 21st century.<sup id="cite_ref-:10_26-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:10-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Before_1800">Before 1800</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Before 1800"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>During this period fertility rates of 4.5 to 7.5 were common around the world.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <sup>76-77</sup> <a href="/wiki/Child_mortality" title="Child mortality">Child mortality</a> could reach 50%<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and that plus the need to produce workers, male heirs, and old-age caregivers required a high fertility rate by 21st-century standards. To produce two adult children in this high mortality environment required at least four or more births. For example, fertility rates in Western Europe before 1800 ranged from 4.5 in Scandinavia to 6.2 in Belgium.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 76">: 76 </span></sup> In 1800, the TFR in the United States was 7.0.<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Fertility rates in East Asia during this period were similar to those in Europe.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 74">: 74 </span></sup> Fertility rates in Roman Egypt were 7.4.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup>, p77</sup> </p><p>Despite these high fertility rates, the number of surviving children per woman was always around two because of high mortality rates. As a result, global population growth was still very slow, about <a href="/wiki/Population_decline#Long-term_historic_trends_in_world_population_growth" title="Population decline">0.04% per year</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="1800_to_1950">1800 to 1950</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: 1800 to 1950"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>After 1800, the Industrial Revolution began in some places, particularly Great Britain, continental Europe, and the United States, and they underwent the beginnings of what is now called the demographic transition. <a href="/wiki/Demographic_transition#Stage_two" title="Demographic transition">Stage two</a> of this process fueled a steady reduction in mortality rates due to improvements in <a href="/wiki/Sanitation" title="Sanitation">public sanitation</a>, <a href="/wiki/Hygiene" title="Hygiene">personal hygiene</a> and the <a href="/wiki/British_Agricultural_Revolution" title="British Agricultural Revolution">food supply</a>, which reduced the number of famines.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_30-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>These reductions in mortality rates, particularly reductions in child mortality, that increased the fraction of children surviving, plus other major societal changes such as <a href="/wiki/Urbanization" title="Urbanization">urbanization</a>, and the increased social status of women, led to <a href="/wiki/Demographic_transition#Stage_three" title="Demographic transition">stage three</a> of the demographic transition.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_30-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There was a reduction in fertility rates, because there was simply no longer a need to birth so many children.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_2-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 294">: 294 </span></sup> </p><p>The example from the US of the correlation between child mortality and the fertility rate is illustrative. In 1800, child mortality in the US was 33%, meaning that one third of all children born would die before their fifth birthday. The TFR in 1800 was 7.0, meaning that the average female would bear seven children during their lifetime. In 1900, child mortality in the US had declined to 23%, a reduction of almost one third, and the TFR had declined to 3.9, a reduction of 44%. By 1950, child mortality had declined dramatically to 4%, a reduction of 84%, and the TFR declined to 3.2. By 2018, child mortality had declined further to 0.6% and the TFR declined to 1.9, below replacement level.<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="1950_to_the_present_and_projections">1950 to the present and projections</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: 1950 to the present and projections"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <table class="wikitable mw-collapsible"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="4"><b>World historical TFR (1950–2020)</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td><b>Years</b> </td> <td>Global Average </td> <td>More developed regions </td> <td>Less developed regions </td></tr> <tr> <td>1950–1955 </td> <td>4.86 </td> <td>2.84 </td> <td>5.94 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1955–1960 </td> <td>5.01 </td> <td>2.75 </td> <td>6.15 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1960–1965 </td> <td>4.70 </td> <td>2.71 </td> <td>5.64 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1965–1970 </td> <td>5.08 </td> <td>2.51 </td> <td>6.23 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1970–1975 </td> <td>4.83 </td> <td>2.32 </td> <td>5.87 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1975–1980 </td> <td>4.08 </td> <td>2.01 </td> <td>4.88 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1980–1985 </td> <td>3.75 </td> <td>1.89 </td> <td>4.40 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1985–1990 </td> <td>3.52 </td> <td>1.82 </td> <td>4.03 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1990–1995 </td> <td>3.31 </td> <td>1.78 </td> <td>3.71 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1995–2000 </td> <td>2.88 </td> <td>1.58 </td> <td>3.18 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2000–2005 </td> <td>2.73 </td> <td>1.57 </td> <td>2.98 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2005–2010 </td> <td>2.62 </td> <td>1.61 </td> <td>2.81 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2010–2015 </td> <td>2.59 </td> <td>1.69 </td> <td>2.74 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2015–2020 </td> <td>2.52 </td> <td>1.67 </td> <td>2.66 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2020–2025 </td> <td>2.35 </td> <td>1.51 </td> <td>2.47 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The chart shows that the decline in the TFR since the 1960s has occurred in every region of the world. The global TFR is projected to continue declining for the remainder of the century, and reach a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-:10_26-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:10-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:8_32-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:8-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2022, the global TFR was 2.3.<sup id="cite_ref-:6_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:6-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Because the <a href="#Replacement_rates">global fertility replacement</a> rate for 2010–2015 was estimated to be 2.3, humanity has achieved or is approaching a significant milestone where the global fertility rate is equal to the global replacement rate.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The global fertility rate may have fallen below the global replacement level of 2.2 children per woman as early as 2023. Numerous developing countries have experienced an accelerated fertility decline in the 2010s and early 2020s.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_34-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The average fertility rate in countries such as Thailand<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> or Chile<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> approached the mark of one child per woman, which triggered concerns about the rapid aging of populations worldwide.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_34-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Total_fertility_rates_in_2050_and_2100">Total fertility rates in 2050 and 2100</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Total fertility rates in 2050 and 2100"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World,_1950-2100,_UN2022.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg/405px-Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg.png" decoding="async" width="405" height="433" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg/608px-Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg/810px-Total_Fertility_Rate_for_6_Regions_and_the_World%2C_1950-2100%2C_UN2022.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1989" data-file-height="2127" /></a><figcaption>The Total Fertility Rate for six regions and the World, 1950-2100</figcaption></figure> <p>The table<sup id="cite_ref-:13_37-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> shows that after 1965, the demographic transition spread around the world, and the global TFR began a long decline that continues in the 21st century. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="By_region">By region</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: By region"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate" title="List of countries by total fertility rate">List of countries by total fertility rate</a></div> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0c/Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg/400px-Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="267" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0c/Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg/600px-Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0c/Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg/800px-Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1080" data-file-height="720" /></a><figcaption>The total fertility rate in <a href="/wiki/OECD" title="OECD">OECD</a> countries, 2023</figcaption></figure> <p>The United Nations Population Division divides the world into six geographical regions. The table below shows the estimated TFR for each region.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_37-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable sortable"> <caption> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Region </th> <th>TFR <p>(2015-2020) </p> </th></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Africa" title="Africa">Africa</a> </td> <td>4.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Asia" title="Asia">Asia</a> </td> <td>2.2 </td></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Europe" title="Europe">Europe</a> </td> <td>1.6 </td></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean" title="Latin America and the Caribbean">Latin America and the Caribbean</a> </td> <td>2.0 </td></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Northern_America" title="Northern America">Northern America</a> </td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td><a href="/wiki/Oceania" title="Oceania">Oceania</a> </td> <td>2.4 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>In 2013, the TFR of <a href="/wiki/Europe" title="Europe">Europe</a>, <a href="/wiki/Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean" title="Latin America and the Caribbean">Latin America and the Caribbean</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Northern_America" title="Northern America">Northern America</a> were below the global replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per female.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Fertility_Map.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7f/Fertility_Map.png/220px-Fertility_Map.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="153" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7f/Fertility_Map.png/330px-Fertility_Map.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7f/Fertility_Map.png/440px-Fertility_Map.png 2x" data-file-width="4592" data-file-height="3196" /></a><figcaption>A map of when European fertility rates fell below replacement levels</figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Africa">Africa</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Africa"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Africa has a TFR of 4.1, the highest in the world.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_37-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Angola" title="Angola">Angola</a>, <a href="/wiki/Benin" title="Benin">Benin</a>, <a href="/wiki/Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo" title="Democratic Republic of the Congo">DR Congo</a>, <a href="/wiki/Mali" title="Mali">Mali</a>, and the <a href="/wiki/Niger" title="Niger">Niger</a> have the highest TFR.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2023, the most populous country in Africa, <a href="/wiki/Nigeria" title="Nigeria">Nigeria</a>, had an estimated TFR of 4.57.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2023, the second most populous African country, <a href="/wiki/Ethiopia" title="Ethiopia">Ethiopia</a>, had an estimated TFR of 3.92.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The poverty of Africa, and the high <a href="/wiki/Maternal_death" title="Maternal death">maternal mortality</a> and <a href="/wiki/Infant_mortality" title="Infant mortality">infant mortality</a> had led to calls from WHO for <a href="/wiki/Family_planning" title="Family planning">family planning</a>, and the encouragement of smaller families.<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Asia">Asia</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: Asia"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Eastern_Asia">Eastern Asia</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Eastern Asia"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png/350px-Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="245" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png/525px-Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png/700px-Map_of_East_Asia_by_TFR_in_2021.png 2x" data-file-width="2344" data-file-height="1641" /></a><figcaption>A map of East Asia by total fertility rate (TFR), 2021</figcaption></figure> <p><a href="/wiki/Hong_Kong" title="Hong Kong">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="/wiki/Macau" title="Macau">Macau</a>, <a href="/wiki/Singapore" title="Singapore">Singapore</a>, <a href="/wiki/South_Korea" title="South Korea">South Korea</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Taiwan" title="Taiwan">Taiwan</a> have the lowest-low fertility, defined as TFR at or below 1.3, and are among the lowest in the world.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_37-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2004, Macau had a TFR below 1.0.<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2018, <a href="/wiki/North_Korea" title="North Korea">North Korea</a> had the highest TFR in East Asia, at 1.95.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_37-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="China">China</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: China"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_China" title="Aging of China">Aging of China</a></div> <p>In 2022, China's TFR was 1.09.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> China implemented the <a href="/wiki/One-child_policy" title="One-child policy">one-child policy</a> in January 1979 as a drastic <a href="/wiki/Human_population_planning" title="Human population planning">population planning</a> measure to control the ever-growing population at the time. In January 2016, the policy was replaced with the <a href="/wiki/Two-child_policy" title="Two-child policy">two-child policy</a>. In July 2021, a <a href="/wiki/Three-child_policy" title="Three-child policy">three-child policy</a> was introduced, as China's population is aging faster than almost any other country in modern history.<sup id="cite_ref-:12_42-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:12-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Japan">Japan</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Japan"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_Japan" title="Aging of Japan">Aging of Japan</a></div> <p>In 2022, Japan had a TFR of 1.26.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Japan's population is rapidly aging due to both a long life expectancy and a low birth rate. The total population is shrinking, losing 430,000 in 2018, to a total of 126.4 million.<sup id="cite_ref-FT-Japan_44-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FT-Japan-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Hong Kong and Singapore mitigate this through <a href="/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore" title="Immigration to Singapore">immigrant workers</a>. In Japan, a serious demographic imbalance has developed, partly due to limited <a href="/wiki/Immigration_to_Japan" title="Immigration to Japan">immigration to Japan</a>.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="South_Korea">South Korea</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: South Korea"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_South_Korea" title="Aging of South Korea">Aging of South Korea</a></div> <p>In South Korea, a low birthrate is one of its most urgent socio-economic challenges.<sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Rising housing expenses, shrinking job opportunities for younger generations, insufficient support to families with newborns either from the government or employers are among the major explanations for its crawling TFR, which fell to 0.92 in 2019.<sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Koreans are yet to find viable solutions to make the birthrate rebound, even after trying out dozens of programs over a decade, including subsidizing rearing expenses, giving priorities for public rental housing to couples with multiple children, funding day care centers, reserving seats in public transportation for pregnant women, and so on. </p><p>In the past 20 years, South Korea has recorded some of the lowest fertility and marriage levels in the world. As of 2022, South Korea is the country with the world's lowest<sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> total fertility rate, at 0.78. In 2022, the TFR of the capital Seoul was 0.57.<sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Southern_Asia">Southern Asia</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: Southern Asia"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Bangladesh">Bangladesh</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=24" title="Edit section: Bangladesh"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The fertility rate fell from 6.8 in 1970–1975, to 2.0 in 2020, an interval of about 47 years, or a little less than two generations.<sup id="cite_ref-49" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-50" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="India">India</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: India"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Indian fertility rate has declined significantly over the early 21st century. The Indian TFR declined from 5.2 in 1971 to 2.2 in 2018.<sup id="cite_ref-51" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The TFR in India declined to 2.0 in 2019-2020, marking the first time it has gone below replacement level.<sup id="cite_ref-52" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2023, the TFR in India declined to an all time low of 1.9 </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Iran">Iran</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: Iran"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In the <a href="/wiki/Iranian_calendars" title="Iranian calendars">Iranian calendar year</a> (March 2019 – March 2020), Iran's total fertility rate fell to 1.8.<sup id="cite_ref-53" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Western_Asia">Western Asia</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=27" title="Edit section: Western Asia"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In 2019, the TFR of Turkey reached 1.88.<sup id="cite_ref-54" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Europe">Europe</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=28" title="Edit section: Europe"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe" title="Ageing of Europe">Ageing of Europe</a></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_Russia" title="Aging of Russia">Aging of Russia</a></div> <p>Total fertility rate in Europe by region/province/federal subject in 1960 </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Country</th> <th>Region/Province/Federal Subject</th> <th>Total Fertility Rate (1960) </th></tr> <tr> <td>Kosovo</td> <td>Kosovo</td> <td>6.70 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Albania</td> <td>Albania</td> <td>6.50 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Campania</td> <td>3.61 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Spain</td> <td>Andalusia</td> <td>3.54 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td><a href="/wiki/Calabria" title="Calabria">Calabria</a></td> <td>3.52 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Spain</td> <td>Extremadura</td> <td>3.48 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Sicily</td> <td>3.45 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Romania</td> <td>Moldova region</td> <td>3.26 </td></tr> <tr> <td>United Kingdom</td> <td>Northern Ireland</td> <td>3.23 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Poland</td> <td>Subcarpathian Voivodeship</td> <td>3.18 </td></tr> <tr> <td>United Kingdom</td> <td>Scotland</td> <td>3.15 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Poland</td> <td>Lublin</td> <td>3.12 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Greece</td> <td>Thessaly</td> <td>3.10 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Brittany</td> <td>3.04 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Romania</td> <td>Transylvania</td> <td>2.94 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Midi-Pyrénées</td> <td>2.93 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Greece</td> <td>Central Macedonia</td> <td>2.97 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Normandy</td> <td>2.86 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Bavaria</td> <td>2.64 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Baden-Württemberg</td> <td>2.57 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Lazio</td> <td>2.55 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Tuscany</td> <td>2.47 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Rhineland-Palatinate</td> <td>2.46 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Norway</td> <td>Akershus</td> <td>2.42 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Västra Götaland County</td> <td>2.41 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Norway</td> <td>Oslo</td> <td>2.36 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Stockholm County</td> <td>2.34 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Lorraine</td> <td>2.23 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Alsace</td> <td>2.22 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Spain</td> <td>Castile and León</td> <td>2.21 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Finland</td> <td>Pirkanmaa</td> <td>2.20 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Hesse</td> <td>2.19 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Netherlands</td> <td>South Holland</td> <td>2.17 </td></tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td>Île-de-France</td> <td>2.14 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Finland</td> <td>Uusimaa</td> <td>2.13 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>North Rhine-Westphalia</td> <td>2.12 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Netherlands</td> <td>North Holland</td> <td>2.09 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Spain</td> <td>Madrid</td> <td>2.08 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Berlin</td> <td>1.80 </td></tr> <tr> <td>United Kingdom</td> <td>London</td> <td>1.82 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Skåne County</td> <td>1.84 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Halland County</td> <td>1.93 </td></tr> <tr> <td>United Kingdom</td> <td>South East England</td> <td>1.92 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Lombardy</td> <td>1.91 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Italy</td> <td>Veneto</td> <td>1.87 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Norway</td> <td>Troms</td> <td>1.75 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Germany</td> <td>Hamburg</td> <td>1.73 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Norway</td> <td>Finnmark</td> <td>1.64 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Norrbotten County</td> <td>1.36 </td></tr> <tr> <td>Sweden</td> <td>Västerbotten County</td> <td>1.29 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The average total fertility rate in the <a href="/wiki/European_Union" title="European Union">European Union</a> (EU-27) was calculated at 1.53 children per female in 2021.<sup id="cite_ref-europa.eu1_21-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-europa.eu1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2021, France had the highest TFR among EU countries at 1.84, followed by Czechia (1.83), Romania (1.81), Ireland (1.78) and Denmark (1.72).<sup id="cite_ref-europa.eu1_21-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-europa.eu1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2021, Malta had the lowest TFR among the EU countries, at 1.13.<sup id="cite_ref-europa.eu1_21-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-europa.eu1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Other southern European countries also had very low TFR (Portugal 1.35, Cyprus 1.39, Greece 1.43, Spain 1.19, and Italy 1.25).<sup id="cite_ref-europa.eu1_21-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-europa.eu1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2021, the United Kingdom had a TFR of 1.53. In 2021 estimates for the non-EU European post-Soviet states group, Russia had a TFR of 1.60, Moldova 1.59, Ukraine 1.57, and Belarus 1.52.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Emigration of young adults from Eastern Europe to the West aggravates the demographic problems of those countries. People from countries such as Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine are particularly moving abroad.<sup id="cite_ref-55" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean">Latin America and the Caribbean</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=29" title="Edit section: Latin America and the Caribbean"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In 2023, the TFR of Brazil, the most populous country in the region, was estimated at 1.75.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2021, the second most populous country, Mexico, had an estimated TFR of 1.73.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The next most populous four countries in the region had estimated TFRs of between 1.9 and 2.2 in 2023, including Colombia (1.94), Argentina (2.17), Peru (2.18), and Venezuela (2.20). Belize had the highest estimated TFR in the region at 2.59 in 2023. In 2021, Puerto Rico had the lowest, at 1.25.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_16-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Northern_America">Northern America</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=30" title="Edit section: Northern America"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Canada">Canada</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=31" title="Edit section: Canada"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_Canada" title="Aging of Canada">Aging of Canada</a></div> <p>In 2023, the TFR of Canada was 1.26.<sup id="cite_ref-56" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="United_States">United States</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=32" title="Edit section: United States"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Aging_of_the_United_States" title="Aging of the United States">Aging of the United States</a></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1237032888/mw-parser-output/.tmulti">.mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner{display:flex;flex-direction:column}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{display:flex;flex-direction:row;clear:left;flex-wrap:wrap;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{margin:1px;float:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .theader{clear:both;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;align-self:center;background-color:transparent;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbcaption{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-left{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-right{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-center{text-align:center}@media all and (max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbinner{width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:none!important;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{justify-content:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{float:none!important;max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle .thumbcaption{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow>.thumbcaption{text-align:center}}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}</style><div class="thumb tmulti tright"><div class="thumbinner multiimageinner" style="width:442px;max-width:442px"><div class="trow"><div class="tsingle" style="width:219px;max-width:219px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:122px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/78/1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/217px-1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png" decoding="async" width="217" height="122" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/78/1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/326px-1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/78/1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/434px-1910-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1200" data-file-height="675" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">After a relatively stable birth rate for thirty years, the number of live births per 100 women aged 15 to 44 resumed a decline beginning in 2008.<sup id="cite_ref-NBCnews_20230112_57-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NBCnews_20230112-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div><div class="tsingle" style="width:219px;max-width:219px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:122px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/217px-1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png" decoding="async" width="217" height="122" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/326px-1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg/434px-1965-_Fertility_rate_-_United_States.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1200" data-file-height="675" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">The fertility rate in the U.S. has been in a downward trend, and is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 births.<sup id="cite_ref-Axios_20240425_58-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Axios_20240425-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div></div></div></div> <p>The total fertility rate in the United States after <a href="/wiki/World_War_II" title="World War II">World War II</a> peaked at about 3.8 children per female in the late 1950s, dropped to below replacement in the early 70s, and by 1999 was at 2 children.<sup id="cite_ref-59" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Currently, the fertility is below replacement among those native born, and above replacement among <a href="/wiki/Immigration" title="Immigration">immigrant</a> families, most of whom come to the US from countries with higher fertility. However, the fertility rate of immigrants to the US has been found to decrease sharply in the second generation, correlating with improved education and income.<sup id="cite_ref-60" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2021, the US TFR was 1.664, ranging between over 2 in some states and under 1.6 in others.<sup id="cite_ref-61" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Oceania">Oceania</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=33" title="Edit section: Oceania"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Australia">Australia</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=34" title="Edit section: Australia"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Ageing_of_Australia" title="Ageing of Australia">Ageing of Australia</a></div> <p>After World War II, Australia's TFR was approximately 3.0.<sup id="cite_ref-:22_62-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:22-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2017, Australia's TFR was 1.74, i.e. below replacement.<sup id="cite_ref-:7_63-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:7-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=35" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate">List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Birth_rate" title="Birth rate">Birth rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence" title="Fertility and intelligence">Fertility and intelligence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Income_and_fertility" title="Income and fertility">Income and fertility</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_fertility_rate" title="List of countries by past fertility rate">List of countries by past fertility rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility" title="Sub-replacement fertility">Sub-replacement fertility</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero_population_growth" title="Zero population growth">Zero population growth</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=36" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-:11-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:11_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:11_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:11_1-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:11_1-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFRoser2024" class="citation journal cs1">Roser, Max (March 2024). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#:~:text=In%20the%20pre%2Dmodern%20era,typically%20seen%20accelerated%20population%20growth">"Fertility Rate"</a>. <i>Our World in Data</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Our+World+in+Data&rft.atitle=Fertility+Rate&rft.date=2024-03&rft.aulast=Roser&rft.aufirst=Max&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fourworldindata.org%2Ffertility-rate%23%3A~%3Atext%3DIn%2520the%2520pre%252Dmodern%2520era%2Ctypically%2520seen%2520accelerated%2520population%2520growth&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:2-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:2_2-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFClark2007" class="citation book cs1">Clark, Gregory (2007). <i>A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World</i>. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2022-01-25</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Population+Trends&rft.atitle=Replacement+level+fertility+and+future+population+growth&rft.issue=78&rft.pages=20-22&rft.date=1994&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F7834459&rft.aulast=Craig&rft.aufirst=J&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2F7834459%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:4-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:4_6-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:4_6-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEspenshadeGuzmanWestoff2003" class="citation journal cs1">Espenshade TJ, Guzman JC, Westoff CF (2003). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e">"The surprising global variation in replacement fertility"</a>. <i>Population Research and Policy Review</i>. <b>22</b> (5/6): 575. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1023%2FB%3APOPU.0000020882.29684.8e">10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:10798893">10798893</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230531173745/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e">Archived</a> from the original on 2023-05-31<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2023-05-31</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Population+Research+and+Policy+Review&rft.atitle=The+surprising+global+variation+in+replacement+fertility&rft.volume=22&rft.issue=5%2F6&rft.pages=575&rft.date=2003&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1023%2FB%3APOPU.0000020882.29684.8e&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A10798893%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.aulast=Espenshade&rft.aufirst=TJ&rft.au=Guzman%2C+JC&rft.au=Westoff%2C+CF&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1023%2FB%3APOPU.0000020882.29684.8e&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:1-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:1_7-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:1_7-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGietel-BastenScherbov2019" class="citation journal cs1">Gietel-Basten, Stuart; Scherbov, Sergei (December 2, 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6886770">"Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?"</a>. <i>PLOS ONE</i>. <b>14</b> (12): e0224985. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019PLoSO..1424985G">2019PLoSO..1424985G</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0224985">10.1371/journal.pone.0224985</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6886770">6886770</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31790416">31790416</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=PLOS+ONE&rft.atitle=Is+half+the+world%27s+population+really+below+%27replacement-rate%27%3F&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=12&rft.pages=e0224985&rft.date=2019-12-02&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC6886770%23id-name%3DPMC&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F31790416&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0224985&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2019PLoSO..1424985G&rft.aulast=Gietel-Basten&rft.aufirst=Stuart&rft.au=Scherbov%2C+Sergei&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC6886770&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKohlerBillariOrtega2006" class="citation web cs1">Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C.; Ortega, José Antonio (February 15, 2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/papers/Low-fertility-in-Europe-final.pdf">"Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>University of Pennsylvania - School of Arts & Sciences</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171119092721/http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/papers/Low-fertility-in-Europe-final.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 2017-11-19<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2020-01-27</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=University+of+Pennsylvania+-+School+of+Arts+%26+Sciences&rft.atitle=Low+Fertility+in+Europe%3A+Causes%2C+Implications+and+Policy+Options&rft.date=2006-02-15&rft.aulast=Kohler&rft.aufirst=Hans-Peter&rft.au=Billari%2C+Francesco+C.&rft.au=Ortega%2C+Jos%C3%A9+Antonio&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssc.upenn.edu%2F~hpkohler%2Fpapers%2FLow-fertility-in-Europe-final.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCaiMorgan2019" class="citation journal cs1">Cai, Yong; Morgan, S. Philip (1 June 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs42379-019-00024-7">"Persistent low fertility among the East Asia descendants in the United States: perspectives and implications"</a>. <i>China Population and Development Studies</i>. <b>2</b> (4): 384–400. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs42379-019-00024-7">10.1007/s42379-019-00024-7</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/2523-8965">2523-8965</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:135233463">135233463</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=China+Population+and+Development+Studies&rft.atitle=Persistent+low+fertility+among+the+East+Asia+descendants+in+the+United+States%3A+perspectives+and+implications&rft.volume=2&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=384-400&rft.date=2019-06-01&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A135233463%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.issn=2523-8965&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2Fs42379-019-00024-7&rft.aulast=Cai&rft.aufirst=Yong&rft.au=Morgan%2C+S.+Philip&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1007%252Fs42379-019-00024-7&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span> "The Behavior of U.S. minority CJK groups have another logical referent—the behavior of Chinese, Japanese and Korean national populations (shown in Fig. 1). What can we learn about low fertility in the origin countries from those that trace their origin there? Or in other words, what can the East Asian diaspora tell us about lowest-low fertility in East Asia? The most common explanation for fertility differences across developed countries (like those shown in Fig. 1) are institutional differences (see for instance, McDonald 2000a, b). However, it is striking that East Asians who have moved to a new location—to the U.S. with its dramatically different social institutions and one of the highest fertility rates in the developed world—have a fertility pattern that seems impervious to this dramatic contextual change. This simple observation challenges much contemporary thinking about policies to ameliorate low fertility and its negative consequences."</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/1273.pdf">"Fertility statistics"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230202163940/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/1273.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 2023-02-02<span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Texas A&M University. p. 52. <a href="/wiki/Hdl_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Hdl (identifier)">hdl</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://hdl.handle.net/1969.1%2F3892">1969.1/3892</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221214155317/https://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/handle/1969.1/3892">Archived</a> from the original on 14 December 2022<span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">14 November</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Tehran+Times&rft.atitle=Iran%27s+demographic+issue%3A+fertility+reaches+lowest+rate+in+8+years&rft.date=2020-11-11&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tehrantimes.com%2Fnews%2F454540%2FIran-s-demographic-issue-fertility-reaches-lowest-rate-in-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-54"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-54">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/late-marriages-late-births-turkish-population-below-replacement-level/news">"Late marriages, late births: Turkish population below replacement level"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Daily_Sabah" title="Daily Sabah">Daily Sabah</a></i>. 6 July 2020. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220501141349/https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/late-marriages-late-births-turkish-population-below-replacement-level/news">Archived</a> from the original on 1 May 2022<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">13 July</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Daily+Sabah&rft.atitle=Late+marriages%2C+late+births%3A+Turkish+population+below+replacement+level&rft.date=2020-07-06&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailysabah.com%2Fturkey%2Flate-marriages-late-births-turkish-population-below-replacement-level%2Fnews&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-55"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-55">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/central-and-eastern-europe-face-emigration-challenge">"Central and Eastern Europe Face Emigration Challenge"</a>. <i>Stratfor</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170613025341/https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/central-and-eastern-europe-face-emigration-challenge">Archived</a> from the original on 2017-06-13<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2016-08-25</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Stratfor&rft.atitle=Central+and+Eastern+Europe+Face+Emigration+Challenge&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stratfor.com%2Fanalysis%2Fcentral-and-eastern-europe-face-emigration-challenge&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-56"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-56">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAziz2022" class="citation web cs1">Aziz, Saba (25 September 2022). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10773914/canada-fertility-rate-2023/">"Canada's fertility rate has hit a record low. What's behind the drop?"</a>. <i>Global News</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240926161052/https://globalnews.ca/news/10773914/canada-fertility-rate-2023/">Archived</a> from the original on 26 September 2024<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">26 September</span> 2024</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Global+News&rft.atitle=Canada%27s+fertility+rate+has+hit+a+record+low.+What%27s+behind+the+drop%3F&rft.date=2022-09-25&rft.aulast=Aziz&rft.aufirst=Saba&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fglobalnews.ca%2Fnews%2F10773914%2Fcanada-fertility-rate-2023%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-NBCnews_20230112-57"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-NBCnews_20230112_57-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBendixMurphy2023" class="citation news cs1">Bendix, Aria; Murphy, Joe (January 12, 2023). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/parenting/how-modern-us-family-size-changing-charts-map-rcna65421">"The modern family size is changing. Four charts show how"</a>. NBC News. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230603171114/https://www.nbcnews.com/health/parenting/how-modern-us-family-size-changing-charts-map-rcna65421">Archived</a> from the original on June 3, 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The+modern+family+size+is+changing.+Four+charts+show+how.&rft.date=2023-01-12&rft.aulast=Bendix&rft.aufirst=Aria&rft.au=Murphy%2C+Joe&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fhealth%2Fparenting%2Fhow-modern-us-family-size-changing-charts-map-rcna65421&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span> NBC's Graphic: Joe Murphy. ● Bendix and Murphy cite <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMartinezDaniels2023" class="citation journal cs1">Martinez, Gladys M.; Daniels, Kimberly (January 10, 2023). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf">"Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15–49 in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2015–2019"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>National Health Statistics Reports</i> (179). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics: 1–22. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36692386">36692386</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230603171114/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on June 3, 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=National+Health+Statistics+Reports&rft.atitle=Fertility+of+Men+and+Women+Aged+15%E2%80%9349+in+the+United+States%3A+National+Survey+of+Family+Growth%2C+2015%E2%80%932019&rft.issue=179&rft.pages=1-22&rft.date=2023-01-10&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F36692386&rft.aulast=Martinez&rft.aufirst=Gladys+M.&rft.au=Daniels%2C+Kimberly&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fnchs%2Fdata%2Fnhsr%2Fnhsr179.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Axios_20240425-58"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Axios_20240425_58-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSaric2024" class="citation web cs1">Saric, Ivana (April 25, 2024). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023">"Births dropped in 2023, ending pandemic baby boom"</a>. Axios. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.today/20240427034626/https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023">Archived</a> from the original on April 27, 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Births+dropped+in+2023%2C+ending+pandemic+baby+boom&rft.pub=Axios&rft.date=2024-04-25&rft.aulast=Saric&rft.aufirst=Ivana&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.axios.com%2F2024%2F04%2F25%2Fus-births-drop-2023&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span> Axios credits CDC for data.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-59"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-59">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US">"Fertility rate, total (births per woman)"</a>. <i>The World Bank</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220407022903/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US">Archived</a> from the original on 2022-04-07<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2022-02-27</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+World+Bank&rft.atitle=Fertility+rate%2C+total+%28births+per+woman%29&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdata.worldbank.org%2Findicator%2FSP.DYN.TFRT.IN%3Flocations%3DUS&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-60"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-60">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">"How Fertility Changes Across Immigrant Generations." <i>Research Brief #58</i>, Public Policy Institute of California, 2002.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-61"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-61">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr020.pdf">"Births: Provisional Data for 2021"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>cdc.gov</i>. 24 May 2022. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220524090500/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr020.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 24 May 2022<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">24 May</span> 2022</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=cdc.gov&rft.atitle=Births%3A+Provisional+Data+for+2021&rft.date=2022-05-24&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fnchs%2Fdata%2Fvsrr%2Fvsrr020.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:22-62"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-:22_62-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://nationalseniors.com.au/research/finances/ageing-baby-boomers-in-australia">"Ageing Baby Boomers in Australia"</a>. <i>National Seniors Australia</i>. 2012. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230603043942/https://nationalseniors.com.au/research/finances/ageing-baby-boomers-in-australia">Archived</a> from the original on 2023-06-03<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2023-06-03</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=National+Seniors+Australia&rft.atitle=Ageing+Baby+Boomers+in+Australia&rft.date=2012&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fnationalseniors.com.au%2Fresearch%2Ffinances%2Fageing-baby-boomers-in-australia&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:7-63"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-:7_63-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/0/8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A?Opendocument">"Australian women are now having children older than ever"</a>. <i>Australian Bureau of Statistics</i>. 11 December 2018. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200312090512/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%EF%BF%BDbs%40.nsf/0/8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A?Opendocument">Archived</a> from the original on 2020-03-12<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-05-07</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Australian+Bureau+of+Statistics&rft.atitle=Australian+women+are+now+having+children+older+than+ever&rft.date=2018-12-11&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abs.gov.au%2Fausstats%255Cabs%40.nsf%2F0%2F8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A%3FOpendocument&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=37" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239549316">.mw-parser-output .refbegin{margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-hanging-indents>ul{margin-left:0}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-hanging-indents>ul>li{margin-left:0;padding-left:3.2em;text-indent:-3.2em}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-hanging-indents ul,.mw-parser-output .refbegin-hanging-indents ul li{list-style:none}@media(max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .refbegin-hanging-indents>ul>li{padding-left:1.6em;text-indent:-1.6em}}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-columns ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .refbegin-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .refbegin{font-size:90%}}</style><div class="refbegin" style=""> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBulatao1984" class="citation book cs1">Bulatao, Rodolfo (1984). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000666403"><i>Reducing Fertility in Developing Countries</i></a>. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-8213-0444-0" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-8213-0444-0"><bdi>978-0-8213-0444-0</bdi></a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210225234730/http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000666403">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-02-25<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2011-09-24</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Reducing+Fertility+in+Developing+Countries&rft.place=Washington%2C+D.C.&rft.pub=World+Bank&rft.date=1984&rft.isbn=978-0-8213-0444-0&rft.aulast=Bulatao&rft.aufirst=Rodolfo&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fcatalog.hathitrust.org%2FRecord%2F000666403&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ATotal+fertility+rate" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&action=edit&section=38" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison">CIA World Factbook - Total Fertility Rate by country</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat">eurostat - Your key to European statistics</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.prb.org/resources/glossary/">Population Reference Bureau Glossary of Population Terms</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.aetheling.com/NL/sim/population/fertility.html">Java Simulation of Total Fertility</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.aetheling.com/NL/sim/population/population1.html">Java Simulation of Population Dynamics</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/rb/RB_402LHRB.pdf">How Fertility Changes Across Immigrant Generations</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00516607">Fertility Trends, Marriage Patterns and Savant Typologies</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/main.php">Human Fertility Database: Collection of age specific fertility rates for some developed countries</a>.</li></ul>    </div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; 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