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class="mw-page-title-main">Prospective cohort study</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. 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class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Longitudinal cohort study</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">For other uses of "prospective", see <a href="/wiki/Prospective_(disambiguation)" class="mw-redirect mw-disambig" title="Prospective (disambiguation)">Prospective (disambiguation)</a>.</div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg/360px-ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg.png" decoding="async" width="360" height="467" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg/540px-ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg/720px-ExplainingCaseControlSJW-en.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="724" data-file-height="940" /></a><figcaption>Case–control study versus cohort on a timeline. "OR" stands for "odds ratio" and "RR" stands for "relative risk".</figcaption></figure> <p>A <b>prospective cohort study</b> is a <a href="/wiki/Longitudinal_study" title="Longitudinal study">longitudinal</a> <a href="/wiki/Cohort_study" title="Cohort study">cohort study</a> that follows over time a group of similar individuals (<a href="/wiki/Cohort_(statistics)" title="Cohort (statistics)">cohorts</a>) who differ with respect to certain factors under study to determine how these factors affect rates of a certain <a href="/wiki/Outcome_(probability)" title="Outcome (probability)">outcome</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-urlDefinition_of_prospective_cohort_study_-_NCI_Dictionary_of_Cancer_Terms_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-urlDefinition_of_prospective_cohort_study_-_NCI_Dictionary_of_Cancer_Terms-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, one might follow a cohort of middle-aged truck drivers who vary in terms of smoking habits to test the hypothesis that the 20-year incidence rate of lung cancer will be highest among heavy smokers, followed by moderate smokers, and then non–smokers. </p><p>The prospective study is important for research on the <a href="/wiki/Etiology" title="Etiology">etiology</a> of diseases and disorders. The distinguishing feature of a prospective cohort study is that at the time the investigators begin enrolling subjects and collecting baseline exposure information, none of the subjects have developed any of the outcomes of interest.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> After baseline information is collected, subjects in a prospective cohort study are then followed "longitudinally," i.e., over a period of time, usually for years, to determine if and when they become diseased and whether their exposure status changes outcomes. In this way, investigators can eventually use the data to answer many questions about the associations between "risk factors" and disease outcomes. For example, one could identify smokers and non-smokers at baseline and compare their subsequent incidence of developing heart disease. Alternatively, one could group subjects based on their body mass index (BMI) and compare their risk of developing heart disease or cancer. Prospective cohort studies are typically ranked higher in the <a href="/wiki/Hierarchy_of_evidence" title="Hierarchy of evidence">hierarchy of evidence</a> than <a href="/wiki/Retrospective_cohort_study" title="Retrospective cohort study">retrospective cohort studies</a><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and can be more expensive than a <a href="/wiki/Case%E2%80%93control_study" title="Case–control study">case–control study</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-pmid16983377_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pmid16983377-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>One of the advantages of prospective cohort studies is that they can help determine risk factors for being infected with a new disease because they are a longitudinal observation over time, and the collection of results is at regular time intervals, so recall error is minimized.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Reporting">Reporting</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Prospective_cohort_study&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Reporting"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (<a href="/wiki/Strengthening_the_Reporting_of_Observational_studies_in_Epidemiology" class="mw-redirect" title="Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology">STROBE</a>) recommends that authors refrain from calling a study ‘prospective’ or ‘<a href="/wiki/Retrospective_cohort_study" title="Retrospective cohort study">retrospective</a>’ due to these terms having contradictory and overlapping definitions.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> STROBE also recommends that whenever authors use these words, they specify which definition they use, including a detailed description of how and when data collection took place. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Examples">Examples</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Prospective_cohort_study&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Examples"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Caerphilly_Heart_Disease_Study" title="Caerphilly Heart Disease Study">Caerphilly Heart Disease Study</a>, UK.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.clsa-elcv.ca/">Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging / Étude longitudinale canadienne sur le vieillissement (CLSA-ÉLCV)</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.CARTaGENE.qc.ca/">The CARTaGENE cohort / Quebec's largest prospective study </a>, Quebec, Canada</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/cebu">Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey</a>, the Philippines</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Framingham_Heart_Study" title="Framingham Heart Study">Framingham Heart Study</a>, USA.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Million_Women_Study" title="Million Women Study">Million Women Study</a>, UK.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rotterdam_Study" title="Rotterdam Study">Rotterdam Study</a>, Netherlands.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://heller.brandeis.edu/sid/tsimane/">Tsimane’ Amazonian Panel Study</a>, Bolivia</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/">The UK biobank </a>, UK</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Prospective_cohort_study&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Retrospective_cohort_study" title="Retrospective cohort study">Retrospective cohort study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Blinded_experiment" title="Blinded experiment">Blinded experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Clinical_trial" title="Clinical trial">Clinical trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Therapeutic_effect" title="Therapeutic effect">Therapeutic effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Randomization" title="Randomization">Randomization</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Prospective_cohort_study&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-urlDefinition_of_prospective_cohort_study_-_NCI_Dictionary_of_Cancer_Terms-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-urlDefinition_of_prospective_cohort_study_-_NCI_Dictionary_of_Cancer_Terms_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration 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title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17941715">17941715</a>.</cite><span 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href="/wiki/Period_prevalence" class="mw-redirect" title="Period prevalence">Period prevalence</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Epidemiological_methods#Measures_of_association" class="mw-redirect" title="Epidemiological methods">Association</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Risk_difference" title="Risk difference">Risk difference</a>, <a href="/wiki/Number_needed_to_treat" title="Number needed to treat">Number needed to treat</a>, <a href="/wiki/Number_needed_to_harm" title="Number needed to harm">Number needed to harm</a>, <a href="/wiki/Risk_ratio" class="mw-redirect" title="Risk ratio">Risk ratio</a>, <a href="/wiki/Relative_risk_reduction" title="Relative risk reduction">Relative risk reduction</a>, <a href="/wiki/Odds_ratio" title="Odds ratio">Odds ratio</a>, <a href="/wiki/Hazard_ratio" title="Hazard ratio">Hazard ratio</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Population_impact_measure" title="Population impact measure">Population impact</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Attributable_fraction_among_the_exposed" title="Attributable fraction among the exposed">Attributable fraction among the exposed</a>, <a href="/wiki/Attributable_fraction_for_the_population" title="Attributable fraction for the population">Attributable fraction for the population</a>, <a href="/wiki/Preventable_fraction_among_the_unexposed" title="Preventable fraction among the unexposed">Preventable fraction among the unexposed</a>, <a href="/wiki/Preventable_fraction_for_the_population" title="Preventable fraction for the population">Preventable fraction for the population</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Epidemiological_methods#Other_measures" class="mw-redirect" title="Epidemiological methods">Other</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Clinical_endpoint" title="Clinical endpoint">Clinical endpoint</a>, <a href="/wiki/Virulence" title="Virulence">Virulence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Infectivity" title="Infectivity">Infectivity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Mortality_rate" title="Mortality rate">Mortality rate</a>, <a href="/wiki/Morbidity" class="mw-redirect" title="Morbidity">Morbidity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Case_fatality_rate" title="Case fatality rate">Case fatality rate</a>, <a href="/wiki/Specificity_and_sensitivity" class="mw-redirect" title="Specificity and sensitivity">Specificity and sensitivity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Likelihood_ratios_in_diagnostic_testing" title="Likelihood ratios in diagnostic testing">Likelihood-ratios</a>, <a href="/wiki/Pre-_and_post-test_probability" title="Pre- and post-test probability">Pre- and post-test probability</a></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Trial/test types</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/In_vitro" title="In vitro">In vitro</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In_vivo" title="In vivo">In vivo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Animal_testing" title="Animal testing">Animal testing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Animal_testing_on_non-human_primates" title="Animal testing on non-human primates">Animal testing on non-human primates</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/First-in-man_study" class="mw-redirect" title="First-in-man study">First-in-man study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multicenter_trial" title="Multicenter trial">Multicenter trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seeding_trial" title="Seeding trial">Seeding trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Vaccine_trial" title="Vaccine trial">Vaccine trial</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Analysis_of_clinical_trials" title="Analysis of clinical trials">Analysis of clinical trials</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Risk%E2%80%93benefit_ratio" title="Risk–benefit ratio">Risk–benefit ratio</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_review" title="Systematic review">Systematic review</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reproducibility" title="Reproducibility">Replication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Meta-analysis" title="Meta-analysis">Meta-analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intention-to-treat_analysis" title="Intention-to-treat analysis">Intention-to-treat analysis</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Interpretation of results</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list 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