optional starting / optional stopping - The Skeptic's Dictionary

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head><title>optional starting / optional stopping - The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com</title> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_style/style.css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_style/printstyle.css" media="print"/> <link rel="shortcut icon" href="s1.ico"> <script>(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.0"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));</script>  <script type="text/javascript" src="//s7.addthis.com/js/300/addthis_widget.js#pubid=ra-5487a05a7e027f30" async="async"></script>  </head> <body><br /> <div class="container"> <div class="header"> <div class="logo"> <img src="_images/logo_01.png" alt="The Skeptic's Dictionary" width="270" height="60" border="0" />           <br /> by <a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/bio.html">Robert Todd Carroll</a> * est. 1994 </div> <div class="slogan"> <img src="_images/slogan_01.gif" alt="A Collection of Strange Beliefs, Amusing Deceptions, and Dangerous Delusions" width="362" height="30" /> </div> </div> <div class="menu"> <ul> <li></li><li><a href="http://skepdic.com/">Home</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/news/">Newsletter</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/feedback.html">Feedback</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/faq.html">FAQ & Interviews</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tour.html">Site Map</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div class="left"> <h2>Topical Indexes</h2> <ul class="nav_1"> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tialtmed.html">Alternatives to Medicine</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/ticriticalthinking.html">Critical Thinking</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/ticrypto.html">Cryptozoology</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tialien.html">ETs & UFOs</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tifraud.html">Frauds, Hoaxes, Conspiracies</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tijunk.html">Junk Science</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tilogic.html">Logic & Perception</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tinewage.html">New Age</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tipara.html">Paranormal</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tiscience.html">Science & Philosophy</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/tisuper.html">Supernatural</a></li> <li> </li> </ul> <h2>Other Writings</h2> <ul class="nav_2"> <li><a href="http://59ways.blogspot.com/">Unnatural Acts blog</a></li> <li><a href="skeptimedia/skeptimediaarchive.html">Skeptimedia</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/funkarchive.html">Mass Media Funk</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/bunkarchive.html">Mass Media Bunk</a></li> <li><a href="refuge/harmarchive.html">What's the Harm?</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/news/">Newsletter Archives</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/wwwbunk.html">Internet Bunk</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/2good.html">Too good to be true</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/essays.html">Skeptical Essays</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/randr.html">Book Reviews</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/suburbanmyths.html">Suburban Myths</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/memoriam.html">In Memoriam</a></li><li></li> </ul> <h2>Other Resources</h2> <ul class="nav_3"> <li> <a href="http://sd4kids.skepdic.com/"> Mysteries and Science for Kids</a> </li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/UnnaturalVirtue.html">Podcast: Unnatural Virtue archive</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/hollow.html">A Skeptic's Halloween</a></li> <li><a href="http://renish.skepdic.com/AllNotes.html">Editor's Notes</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/getinvolved.html">Get involved</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/future.html">Future Topics?</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/permissions.html">Permission to print</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/report/">Site Statistics</a></li><li></li> </ul> </div> <div class="content"> <div class="it"> <h2>From Abracadabra to Zombies<span class="small"> | <a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html">View All</a></span></h2> <ul class="alphabet"> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#A">a</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#B">b</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#C">c</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#D">d</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#E">e</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#F">f</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#G">g</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#H">h</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#I">i</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#J">j</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#K">k</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#L">l</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#M">m</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#N">n</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#O">o</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#P">p</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#Q">q</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#R">r</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#S">s</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#T">t</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#U">u</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#V">v</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#W">w</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#X">x</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#Y">y</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/contents.html#Z">z</a></li> </ul> <webContent><h1>optional starting / optional stopping</h1> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3">Optional starting and stopping refers to a common practice among <a href="psi.html">psi</a> researchers. In many tests of psychic powers the subject is allowed to start or stop whenever he or she feels like it. For example, the subject may go through some warm-ups trying to psychically receive numbers or <a href="zener.html">Zener card</a> icons being psychically transmitted by another person. The responses of the warm-ups are recorded, however, and if they look good (i.e., seem to be better than would be expected by chance) then the responses are counted in the experimental data. If not, then the data is discarded. Likewise, if the psychic has had a good run at guessing numbers of card suits and starts to have a bad run, he can call it quits.</font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3">This phenomenon seems to be related to another common factor in psi testing: optional keeping and optional disregarding of data. You get to keep all data favorable to your hypothesis and you get to disregard all unfavorable data. Psi researchers consider this practice to be justified since psychic powers may come and go. </font> </p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3">Any reasonable test of psychic powers should have a protocol which specifies exactly when the experiment will begin and when it will end. Imagine letting a card player have a few practice rounds and if he's winning he gets to declare that those weren't practice rounds, but if he's losing he gets to declare that those really were practice rounds. </font> </p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3">Optional starting and stopping should not be confused with <a NAME="displacement"><i>displacement effects</i></a>, a practice of counting an event as a "psychic hit" not only if one guesses the target card, but also if one guesses either the one <i>before or after</i> the target card, thereby significantly increasing one's odds of a "correct" guess. </font> </p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><b>See also </b><a href="parapsy.html">parapsychology.</a> </font> </p> <hr align="left" width="25%" noshade> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><strong>further reading</strong></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0879755482/roberttoddcarrolA/">Alcock, James E. <em>Science and Supernature : a Critical Appraisal of Parapsychology</em> (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1990).</a></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0879754079/roberttoddcarrolA/">Gordon, Henry. <em>Extrasensory Deception: Esp, Psychics, Shirley MacLaine,Ghosts, Ufos</em> (Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books, 1987).</a></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0879755334/roberttoddcarrolA/">Hansel, C.E.M. <em>The Search for Psychic Power : ESP and Parapsychology revisited</em> (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1989).</a></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0879755040/roberttoddcarrolA/">Hyman, Ray. <em>The Elusive Quarry : a Scientific Appraisal of Psychical Research </em>(Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1989).</a></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"> <a href="http://www.mceagle.com/remote-viewing/refs/science/air/hyman.html">Hyman, Ray. "Evaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena," <i>Journal of Scientific Exploration</i>, Vol 10 Num 1.</a></font></p> <p style="text-align: left"><font face="Arial" size="3"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0879754354/roberttoddcarrolA/">Reed, Graham. <em>The Psychology of Anomalous Experience: A Cognitive Approach </em>(Amherst, N.Y.: Prometheus, 1988).</a></font><p></webContent>Last updated 27-Oct-2015 </p> </div> </div> <div class="right"> <div class="right_it"> <div class="search"> <form method="get" action="http://www.google.com/custom" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="domains" value="skepdic.com" /> <input type="text" name="q" maxlength="255" value="" size="20" /> <input type="submit" name="sa" value="Search" /> <br /> <div class="search_2"> <input type="radio" name="sitesearch" value="" /> Web     <input type="radio" name="sitesearch" value="skepdic.com" checked="checked" /> Skepdic.com <br /> <img src="_images/logo_google.gif" alt="Google" width="48" height="19" /> </div> <input type="hidden" name="client" value="pub-3542920166946725" /> <input type="hidden" name="forid" value="1" /> <input type="hidden" name="ie" value="ISO-8859-1" /> <input type="hidden" name="oe" value="ISO-8859-1" /> <input type="hidden" name="cof" value="GALT:#008000;GL:1;DIV:#336699;VLC:663399;AH:center;BGC:FFFFFF;LBGC:336699;ALC:0000FF;LC:0000FF;T:000000;GFNT:0000FF;GIMP:0000FF;FORID:1;" /> <input type="hidden" name="hl" value="en" /> </form> </div> <div class="center"> <p align="right"><a href="http://skepdic.com/authorpage.html"><strong>Books by R. T. Carroll </strong></a></p> <p align="right"><a href="http://skepdic.com/authorpage.html"><img src="http://skepdic.com/graphics/CTDcover140.jpg" alt="cover The Critical Thinker's Dictionary" width="140" height="212" /></a></p> <div align="right"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0471272426/roberttoddcarrolA/"> <img src="_images/book_01.jpg" alt="The Skeptic's Dictionary" border="0" width="140" height="171" /></a> </div> <h2 align="center">OTHER LANGUAGES</h2> <ul class="nav_4"> <li><a href="http://nederlands.skepdic.com/">Dutch</a> </li> <li><a href="http://sdkinderen.skepdic.com/">Dutch voor kinderen</a></li> <li><a href="http://dictionnaire.sceptiques.qc.ca/">French</a> </li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.com/German/morgenwelt.html">German</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.gr/">Greek</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.szabadgondolkodo.hu/szkeptikus/szotar/">Hungarian</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.vantru.is/efahyggjuordabokin/">Icelandic</a></li> <li><a href="http://italiano.skepdic.com/">Italian</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.genpaku.org/skepticj/">Japanese</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.rathinker.co.kr/skeptic/index.html">Korean</a></li> <li><a href="http://brazil.skepdic.com/">Portuguese</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepdic.ru/">Russian</a></li> <li><a href="http://slovnik.skepdic.com/">Slovak</a></li> <li><a href="http://skepticus.org/dicc/">Spanish</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.vof.se/skepdic/">Swedish</a></li> <li><a href="http://turkish.skepdic.com/">Turkish</a></li> </ul> <p>Print versions available in <a href="http://www.lannoo.be/content/lannoo/wbnl/listview/1/index.jsp?titelcode=24816&fondsid=8" >Dutch</a>, <a href="http://skepdic.com/russian.html">Russian</a>, <a href="http://www.rakkousha.co.jp/info/index.html#2" > Japanese</a>, and <a href="http://www.aladdin.co.kr/shop/wproduct.aspx?isbn=8995876441" >Korean</a>.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer"> <p align="center"><a href="optimisticbias.html"> <img src="graphics/larrow.gif" alt="larrow.gif (1051 bytes)" border="0" align="bottom" width="14" height="26"> optimistic bias</a> | <a href="oracles.html">oracle <img src="graphics/rarrow.gif" alt="rarrow.gif (1048 bytes)" border="0" align="bottom" width="13" height="26"></a> </div> </div> <div class="bottom"> 漏 Copyright 1994-2016 <a href="http://skepdic.com/refuge/bio.html">Robert T. Carroll</a> * This page was designed by <a href="http://www.cristianpopa.com/portfolio-2/">Cristian Popa</a>.</div> </body> </html>

CINXE.COM

optional starting / optional stopping - The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com