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searchaux" style="display:none">Discussion of scenarios for a collapse of civilization due to climate change</div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg/220px-19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="195" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg/330px-19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg/440px-19021015_Hint_to_Coal_Consumers_-_Svante_Arrhenius_-_The_Selma_Morning_Times_-_Global_warming.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2600" data-file-height="2300" /></a><figcaption>This 1902 article attributes to Swedish Nobel laureate (for chemistry) <a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a> a theory that coal combustion could eventually lead to a degree of global warming causing human extinction.<sup id="cite_ref-Selma_Arrhenius_19021015_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Selma_Arrhenius_19021015-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p><b>Climate change and civilizational collapse</b> refers to a hypothetical risk of the <a href="/wiki/Impacts_of_climate_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Impacts of climate change">impacts of climate change</a> reducing global <a href="/wiki/Socioeconomic" class="mw-redirect" title="Socioeconomic">socioeconomic</a> complexity to the point complex human <a href="/wiki/Civilizational_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Civilizational collapse">civilization</a> effectively ends around the world, with humanity reduced to a less developed state. This hypothetical risk is typically associated with the idea of a massive reduction of <a href="/wiki/Human_population" class="mw-redirect" title="Human population">human population</a> caused by the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, and often, it is also associated with a permanent reduction of the Earth's <a href="/wiki/Carrying_capacity" title="Carrying capacity">carrying capacity</a>. Finally, it is sometimes suggested that a civilizational collapse caused by climate change would soon be followed by <a href="/wiki/Human_extinction" title="Human extinction">human extinction</a>. </p><p>Some researchers connect historical examples of <a href="/wiki/Societal_collapse" title="Societal collapse">societal collapse</a> with adverse changes in local and/or global weather patterns. In particular, the <a href="/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event" title="4.2-kiloyear event">4.2-kiloyear event</a>, a millennial-scale <a href="/wiki/Megadrought" title="Megadrought">megadrought</a> which took place in <a href="/wiki/Africa" title="Africa">Africa</a> and <a href="/wiki/Asia" title="Asia">Asia</a> between 5,000 and 4,000 years ago, has been linked with the collapse of the <a href="/wiki/Old_Kingdom_of_Egypt" title="Old Kingdom of Egypt">Old Kingdom</a> in <a href="/wiki/Ancient_Egypt" title="Ancient Egypt">Egypt</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Akkadian_Empire" title="Akkadian Empire">Akkadian Empire</a> in <a href="/wiki/Mesopotamia" title="Mesopotamia">Mesopotamia</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Liangzhu_culture" title="Liangzhu culture">Liangzhu culture</a> in the lower <a href="/wiki/Yangtze" title="Yangtze">Yangtze River</a> area and the <a href="/wiki/Indus_Valley_Civilization" class="mw-redirect" title="Indus Valley Civilization">Indus Valley Civilization</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In <a href="/wiki/Europe" title="Europe">Europe</a>, the <a href="/wiki/The_General_Crisis" title="The General Crisis">General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century</a>, which was defined by events such as <a href="/wiki/Crop_failure" class="mw-redirect" title="Crop failure">crop failure</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War" title="Thirty Years' War">Thirty Years' War</a>, took place during the <a href="/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" title="Little Ice Age">Little Ice Age</a>. In 2011, a general connection was proposed between adverse climate variations and long-term societal crises during the preindustrial times.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, all of these events were limited to individual human societies: a collapse of the entire human civilization would be historically unprecedented. </p><p>Some of the more extreme warnings of civilizational collapse caused by climate change, such as a claim that civilization is highly likely to end by 2050, have attracted strong rebutals from scientists.<sup id="cite_ref-IFLSFeedback_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IFLSFeedback-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-HallamFeedback_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-HallamFeedback-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The 2022 <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a> projects that human population would be in a range between 8.5 billion and 11 billion people by 2050. By the year 2100, the median population projection is at 11 billion people, while the maximum population projection is close to 16 billion people. The lowest projection for 2100 is around 7 billion, and this decline from present levels is primarily attributed to "rapid development and investment in education", with those projections associated with some of the highest levels of <a href="/wiki/Economic_growth" title="Economic growth">economic growth</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-WG3_Chapter3_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-WG3_Chapter3-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, a minority<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> of <a href="/wiki/Climate_scientist" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate scientist">climate scientists</a> have argued that higher levels of warming—between about 3 °C (5.4 °F) to 5 °C (9.0 °F) over preindustrial temperatures—may be incompatible with civilization, or that the lives of several billion people could no longer be sustained in such a world.<sup id="cite_ref-NYT2009_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NYT2009-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-NonLinear2019_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NonLinear2019-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-VinceRockström_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-VinceRockström-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Mann2023_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Mann2023-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2022, they have called for a so-called "climate endgame" research agenda into the probability of these risks, which had attracted significant media attention and some scientific controversy.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Carrington_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Carrington-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2214347119_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2214347119-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Some of the most high-profile writing on climate change and civilizational collapse has been written by non-scientists. Notable examples include "<a href="/wiki/The_Uninhabitable_Earth" title="The Uninhabitable Earth">The Uninhabitable Earth</a>"<sup id="cite_ref-TUE_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-TUE-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> by <a href="/wiki/David_Wallace-Wells" title="David Wallace-Wells">David Wallace-Wells</a> and "What if we stopped pretending?" by <a href="/wiki/Jonathan_Franzen" title="Jonathan Franzen">Jonathan Franzen</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-Pretentions_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Pretentions-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> which were both criticized for scientific inaccuracy.<sup id="cite_ref-FeedbackTUE_17-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FeedbackTUE-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-FeedbackPretentions_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FeedbackPretentions-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Climate change in popular culture</a> is commonly represented in a highly exaggerated manner as well. <a href="/wiki/Opinion_polling" class="mw-redirect" title="Opinion polling">Opinion polling</a> has provided evidence that youths across the world experience widespread <a href="/wiki/Eco-anxiety" title="Eco-anxiety">climate anxiety</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-Lancet2021_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Lancet2021-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> with the term <a href="/wiki/Collapsology" title="Collapsology">collapsology</a> being coined in 2015 to describe a pessimistic worldview anticipating civilizational collapse due to climate anxiety.<sup id="cite_ref-JJ2020_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-JJ2020-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Suggested_historical_examples">Suggested historical examples</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Suggested historical examples"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="excerpt-block"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1066933788">.mw-parser-output .excerpt-hat .mw-editsection-like{font-style:normal}</style><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable dablink excerpt-hat selfref">This section is an excerpt from <a href="/wiki/Societal_collapse#Natural_disasters_and_climate_change" title="Societal collapse">Societal collapse § Natural disasters and climate change</a>.<span class="mw-editsection-like plainlinks"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Societal_collapse&action=edit#Natural_disasters_and_climate_change">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div><div class="excerpt"> <p>Archeologists have identified signs of a megadrought which lasted for a millennium between 5,000 and 4,000 years ago in Africa and Asia. The drying of the <a href="/wiki/African_humid_period" title="African humid period">Green Sahara</a> not only turned it into a desert but also disrupted the monsoon seasons in South and Southeast Asia and caused flooding in East Asia, which prevented successful harvests and the development of complex culture. It coincided with and may have caused the decline and the fall of the <a href="/wiki/Akkadian_Empire" title="Akkadian Empire">Akkadian Empire</a> in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley Civilization.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The dramatic shift in climate is known as the <a href="/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event" title="4.2-kiloyear event">4.2-kiloyear event</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The highly advanced <a href="/wiki/Indus_Valley_civilisation" class="mw-redirect" title="Indus Valley civilisation">Indus Valley Civilization</a> took root around 3000 BC in what is now northwestern India and Pakistan and collapsed around 1700 BC. Since the <a href="/wiki/Indus_script" title="Indus script">Indus script</a> has yet to be deciphered, the causes of its de-urbanization<sup id="cite_ref-Societal_collapse_Pillalamarri_2016_23-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Societal_collapse_Pillalamarri_2016-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> remain a mystery, but there is some evidence pointing to natural disasters.<sup id="cite_ref-FOOTNOTENational_Geographic200748–49_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FOOTNOTENational_Geographic200748–49-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Signs of a gradual decline began to emerge in 1900 BC, and two centuries later, most of the cities had been abandoned. Archeological evidence suggests an increase in interpersonal violence and in infectious diseases like <a href="/wiki/Leprosy" title="Leprosy">leprosy</a> and <a href="/wiki/Tuberculosis" title="Tuberculosis">tuberculosis</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Historians and archeologists believe that severe and long-lasting drought and a decline in trade with Egypt and Mesopotamia caused the collapse.<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Evidence for earthquakes has also been discovered. Sea level changes are also found at two possible seaport sites along the Makran coast which are now inland. Earthquakes may have contributed to decline of several sites by direct shaking damage or by changes in sea level or in water supply.<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>More generally, recent research pointed to climate change as a key player in the decline and fall of historical societies in China, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. In fact, <a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">paleoclimatogical</a> temperature reconstruction suggests that historical periods of social unrest, societal collapse, and population crash and significant climate change often occurred simultaneously. A team of researchers from Mainland China and Hong Kong were able to establish a causal connection between climate change and large-scale human crises in pre-industrial times. Short-term crises may be caused by social problems, but climate change was the ultimate cause of major crises, starting with economic depressions.<sup id="cite_ref-Societal_collapse_:13_31-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Societal_collapse_:13-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Moreover, since agriculture is highly dependent on climate, any changes to the regional climate from the optimum can induce crop failures.<sup id="cite_ref-Societal_collapse_:27_32-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Societal_collapse_:27-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> The Mongol conquests corresponded to a period of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere between the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, when the <a href="/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period" title="Medieval Warm Period">Medieval Warm Period</a> was giving way to the Little Ice Age, which caused ecological stress. In Europe, the cooling climate did not directly facilitate the <a href="/wiki/Black_Death" title="Black Death">Black Death</a>, but it caused wars, mass migration, and famine, which helped diseases spread.<sup id="cite_ref-Societal_collapse_:27_32-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Societal_collapse_:27-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Modern_discussion">Modern discussion</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Modern discussion"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2000s">2000s</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: 2000s"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>As early as in 2004, a book titled <i>Ecocriticism</i> explored the connection between <a href="/wiki/Apocalypticism" title="Apocalypticism">apocalypticism</a> as expressed in <a href="/wiki/Religion" title="Religion">religious contexts</a>, and the secular apocalyptic interpretations of climate and environmental issues.<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It argued that the tragic (preordained, with clearly delineated morality) or comic (focused on human flaws as opposed to inherent inevitability) apocalyptic framing was seen in the past works on environment, such as <a href="/wiki/Rachel_Carson" title="Rachel Carson">Rachel Carson</a>'s <i><a href="/wiki/Silent_Spring" title="Silent Spring">Silent Spring</a></i> (1962), <a href="/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich" title="Paul R. Ehrlich">Paul</a> and <a href="/wiki/Anne_H._Ehrlich" title="Anne H. Ehrlich">Anne</a> Ehrlich's <i><a href="/wiki/The_Population_Bomb" title="The Population Bomb">The Population Bomb</a></i> (1972), and <a href="/wiki/Al_Gore" title="Al Gore">Al Gore</a>'s <i><a href="/wiki/Earth_in_the_Balance" title="Earth in the Balance">Earth in the Balance</a></i> (1992).<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In the mid-2000s, <a href="/wiki/James_Lovelock" title="James Lovelock">James Lovelock</a> gave predictions to the British newspapers <i><a href="/wiki/The_Independent" title="The Independent">The Independent</a></i> and <i><a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a></i>, where he suggested that much of Europe will have turned to desert and "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the <a href="/wiki/Arctic" title="Arctic">Arctic</a> where the climate remains tolerable" by the end of the 21st century.<sup id="cite_ref-jan06_lovelock_36-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jan06_lovelock-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-guar2007_37-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-guar2007-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2008, he was quoted in <i>The Guardian</i> as saying that 80% of humans will perish by 2100, and that the climate change responsible for that will last 100,000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-guar2008_38-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-guar2008-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> By 2012, he admitted that climate change had proceeded slower than he expected.<sup id="cite_ref-MSNBC2012_39-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MSNBC2012-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2010s-present">2010s-present</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: 2010s-present"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In late 2010s, several articles have attracted attention for their predictions of apocalyptic impacts caused by climate change. Firstly, there was "<a href="/wiki/The_Uninhabitable_Earth" title="The Uninhabitable Earth">The Uninhabitable Earth</a>",<sup id="cite_ref-TUE_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-TUE-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> a July 2017 <i><a href="/wiki/New_York_(magazine)" title="New York (magazine)">New York</a></i> magazine article by <a href="/wiki/David_Wallace-Wells" title="David Wallace-Wells">David Wallace-Wells</a>, which had become the most-read story in the history of the magazine,<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and was later adapted into a <a href="/wiki/The_Uninhabitable_Earth_(book)" title="The Uninhabitable Earth (book)">book</a>. Another was "What if we stopped pretending?", an article written for <i><a href="/wiki/The_New_Yorker" title="The New Yorker">The New Yorker</a></i> by <a href="/wiki/Jonathan_Franzen" title="Jonathan Franzen">Jonathan Franzen</a> in September 2019.<sup id="cite_ref-Pretentions_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Pretentions-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Both articles were heavily criticized by the <a href="/wiki/Fact-checking" title="Fact-checking">fact-checking</a> organization <a href="/wiki/Climate_Feedback" title="Climate Feedback">Climate Feedback</a> for the numerous inaccuracies about <a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">tipping points in the climate system</a> and other aspects of climate change research.<sup id="cite_ref-FeedbackTUE_17-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FeedbackTUE-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-FeedbackPretentions_18-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FeedbackPretentions-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Other examples of this genre include "What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy?", a year 2022 article for <i><a href="/wiki/TIME" class="mw-redirect" title="TIME">TIME</a></i> magazine by <a href="/wiki/Parag_Khanna" title="Parag Khanna">Parag Khanna</a>, which had asserted that hundreds of millions of people dying in the upcoming years and the global population standing at 6 billion by the year 2050 was a plausible worst-case scenario.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Further, some reports, such as "the 2050 scenario" from the Australian <a href="/wiki/Breakthrough_%E2%80%93_National_Centre_for_Climate_Restoration" title="Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration">Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration</a><sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the self-published <a href="/wiki/Deep_Adaptation" title="Deep Adaptation">Deep Adaptation</a> paper by <a href="/wiki/Jem_Bendell" title="Jem Bendell">Jem Bendell</a><sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> had attracted substantial media coverage by making allegations that the outcomes of climate change are underestimated by the conventional scientific process.<sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:10_49-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:10-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Those reports did not go through the <a href="/wiki/Peer_review" title="Peer review">peer review</a> process, and the scientific assessment of these works finds them of very low credibility.<sup id="cite_ref-IFLSFeedback_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IFLSFeedback-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-50" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Notably, subsequent writing by David Wallace-Wells had stepped back from the claims he made in either version of <i>The Uninhabitable Earth</i>. In 2022, he authored a feature article for <i><a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a></i>, which was titled "Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View".<sup id="cite_ref-51" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The following year, Kyle Paoletta argued in <i><a href="/wiki/Harper%27s_Magazine" title="Harper's Magazine">Harper's Magazine</a></i> that the shift in tone made by David Wallace-Wells was indicative of a larger trend in <a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">media coverage of climate change</a> taking place.<sup id="cite_ref-52" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Scientific_consensus_and_controversy">Scientific consensus and controversy</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Scientific consensus and controversy"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a> projects that human population would be in a range between 8.5 billion and 11 billion people by 2050; the median population projection for the year 2100 is at 11 billion people, while the maximum population projection is close to 16 billion people. The lowest projection for 2100 is around 7 billion, and this decline from present levels is primarily attributed to "rapid development and investment in education", with those projections associated with some of the highest levels of <a href="/wiki/Economic_growth" title="Economic growth">economic growth</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-WG3_Chapter3_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-WG3_Chapter3-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In November 2021, <i>Nature</i> surveyed the authors of the first part of the IPCC assessment report: out of 92 respondents, 88% have agreed that the world is experiencing a "climate crisis", yet when asked if they experience "<a href="/wiki/Climate_anxiety" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate anxiety">anxiety</a>, grief or other distress because of concerns over climate change?" just 40% answered "Yes, infrequently", with a further 21% responding "Yes, frequently", and the remaining 39% answering "No".<sup id="cite_ref-NatureWG1_53-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NatureWG1-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Similarly, when a high-profile paper warning of "the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future" was published in <a href="/wiki/Frontiers_Media" title="Frontiers Media">Frontiers in Conservation Science</a>, its authors have noted that "even if major catastrophes occur during this interval, they would unlikely affect the population trajectory until well into the 22nd Century", and "there is no way—ethically or otherwise (barring extreme and unprecedented increases in human mortality)—to avoid rising human numbers and the accompanying overconsumption."<sup id="cite_ref-Ghastly_54-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Ghastly-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-55" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Only a minority of publishing scientists have been more open to apocalyptic rhetoric. In 2009, <a href="/wiki/Hans_Joachim_Schellnhuber" title="Hans Joachim Schellnhuber">Hans Joachim Schellnhuber</a>, the Emeritus Director of the <a href="/wiki/Potsdam_Institute_for_Climate_Impact_Research" title="Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</a>, stated that if global warming reached 4 °C (7.2 °F) over the present levels, then the human population would likely be reduced to 1 billion.<sup id="cite_ref-NYT2009_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NYT2009-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2015, he complained that this remark was frequently misinterpreted as a call for active human <a href="/wiki/Population_control" title="Population control">population control</a> rather than a prediction.<sup id="cite_ref-56" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In a January 2019 interview for <i><a href="/wiki/The_Ecologist" title="The Ecologist">The Ecologist</a></i>, he claimed that if we find reasons to give up on action, then there's a very big risk of things turning to an outright catastrophe, with the civilization ending and almost everything which had been built up over the past two thousand years destroyed.<sup id="cite_ref-NonLinear2019_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NonLinear2019-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In May 2019, <i><a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a></i> interviewed several climate scientists about a world where 4 °C (7.2 °F) of warming over the preindustrial has occurred by 2100: one of them was <a href="/wiki/Johan_Rockstr%C3%B6m" title="Johan Rockström">Johan Rockström</a>, who was reported to state "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that" in such a scenario.<sup id="cite_ref-VinceRockström_10-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-VinceRockström-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Around the same time, similar claims were made by the <a href="/wiki/Extinction_Rebellion" title="Extinction Rebellion">Extinction Rebellion</a> activist <a href="/wiki/Roger_Hallam_(activist)" title="Roger Hallam (activist)">Roger Hallam</a>, who said in a 2019 interview that climate change may "kill 6 billion people by 2100"—a remark which was soon questioned by the <a href="/wiki/BBC_News" title="BBC News">BBC News</a> presenter <a href="/wiki/Andrew_Neil" title="Andrew Neil">Andrew Neil</a><sup id="cite_ref-57" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and criticized as scientifically unfounded by Climate Feedback.<sup id="cite_ref-HallamFeedback_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-HallamFeedback-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In November 2019, The Guardian article was corrected, acknowledging that Rockström was misquoted and his real remarks were "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that".<sup id="cite_ref-VinceRockström_10-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-VinceRockström-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2022, the United Nations published a report called <a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_Assessment_Report_on_Disaster_Risk_Reduction%E2%80%99_(GAR2022)&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction’ (GAR2022) (page does not exist)">Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction’ (GAR2022)</a> saying societal collapse due to crossing of <a href="/wiki/Planetary_boundaries" title="Planetary boundaries">planetary boundaries</a> is very possible. The UN report call to preventive policies including incorporating planetary boundaries in the <a href="/wiki/SDG" class="mw-redirect" title="SDG">SDG targets</a>. One of the authors said on condition of anonymity, that the report was strongly censored before being published, so that “The GAR2022 is an eviscerated skeleton of what was included in earlier drafts”.<sup id="cite_ref-58" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Climate_endgame">Climate endgame</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Climate endgame"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In August 2022, Schellnhuber, Rockström and several other researchers, many of whom were associated with <a href="/wiki/Centre_for_the_Study_of_Existential_Risk" title="Centre for the Study of Existential Risk">Centre for the Study of Existential Risk</a> at the <a href="/wiki/University_of_Cambridge" title="University of Cambridge">University of Cambridge</a>, have published a paper in <a href="/wiki/PNAS" class="mw-redirect" title="PNAS">PNAS</a> which argued that a lack of what they called "<a href="/wiki/Integrated_assessment_modelling" title="Integrated assessment modelling">integrated</a> catastrophe <a href="/wiki/Risk_assessment" title="Risk assessment">assessment</a>" meant that the risk of societal collapse, or even eventual human extinction caused by climate change and its interrelated impacts such as famine (crop loss, <a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">drought</a>), <a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">extreme weather</a> (<a href="/wiki/Hurricane" class="mw-redirect" title="Hurricane">hurricanes</a>, <a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">floods</a>), war (caused by the scarce resources), systemic risk (relating to <a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Displacement_and_migration" title="Effects of climate change">migration</a>, famine, or conflict), and disease was "dangerously underexplored".<sup id="cite_ref-Carrington_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Carrington-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The paper suggested that the following terms should be actively used in the future research. </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0e/Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg/220px-Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="307" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0e/Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg/330px-Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0e/Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg/440px-Cascading_global_climate_failure.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2024" data-file-height="2823" /></a><figcaption>Conceptual causal loop diagram of cascading global climate failure used in the "Climate endgame" paper.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <table class="wikitable"> <caption>Defining key terms in the Climate Endgame agenda<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Term </th> <th>Definition </th></tr> <tr> <td>Latent risk</td> <td>Risk that is dormant under one set of conditions but becomes active under another set of conditions. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Risk cascade</td> <td>Chains of risk occurring when an adverse impact triggers a set of linked risks. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Systemic risk</td> <td>The potential for individual disruptions or failures to cascade into a system-wide failure. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Extreme climate change</td> <td>Mean global surface temperature rise of 3 °C (5.4 °F) or more above preindustrial levels by 2100. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Extinction risk</td> <td>The probability of human extinction within a given timeframe. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Extinction threat</td> <td>A plausible and significant contributor to total extinction risk. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Societal fragility</td> <td>The potential for smaller damages to spiral into global catastrophic or extinction risk due to societal vulnerabilities, risk cascades, and maladaptive responses. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Societal collapse</td> <td>Significant sociopolitical fragmentation and/or state failure along with the relatively rapid, enduring, and significant loss capital, and systems identity; this can lead to large-scale increases in mortality and morbidity. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Global catastrophic risk</td> <td>The probability of a loss of 25% of the global population and the severe disruption of global critical systems (such as food) within a given timeframe (years or decades). </td></tr> <tr> <td>Global catastrophic threat</td> <td>A plausible and significant contributor to global catastrophic risk; the potential for climate change to be a global catastrophic threat can be referred to as "catastrophic climate change". </td></tr> <tr> <td>Global decimation risk</td> <td>The probability of a loss of 10% (or more) of global population and the severe disruption of global critical systems (such as food) within a given timeframe (years or decades). </td></tr> <tr> <td>Global decimation threat</td> <td>A plausible and significant contributor to global decimation risk. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Endgame territory</td> <td>Levels of global warming and societal fragility that are judged sufficiently probable to constitute climate change as an extinction threat. </td></tr> <tr> <td>Worst-case warming</td> <td>The highest empirically and theoretically plausible level of global warming. </td></tr></tbody></table> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1237032888/mw-parser-output/.tmulti">.mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner{display:flex;flex-direction:column}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{display:flex;flex-direction:row;clear:left;flex-wrap:wrap;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{margin:1px;float:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .theader{clear:both;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;align-self:center;background-color:transparent;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbcaption{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-left{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-right{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-center{text-align:center}@media all and (max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbinner{width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:none!important;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{justify-content:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{float:none!important;max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle .thumbcaption{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow>.thumbcaption{text-align:center}}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}</style><div class="thumb tmulti tright"><div class="thumbinner multiimageinner" style="width:442px;max-width:442px"><div class="trow"><div class="tsingle" style="width:220px;max-width:220px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:89px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Overlap_between_state_fragility,_extreme_heat,_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards." src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg/218px-Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg" decoding="async" width="218" height="89" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg/327px-Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg/436px-Overlap_between_state_fragility%2C_extreme_heat%2C_and_nuclear_and_biological_catastrophic_hazards.jpg 2x" data-file-width="4164" data-file-height="1702" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards according to the "Endgame" paper<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div><div class="tsingle" style="width:218px;max-width:218px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:89px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat." src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg/216px-Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg" decoding="async" width="216" height="89" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg/324px-Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg/432px-Overlap_between_future_population_distribution_and_extreme_heat.jpg 2x" data-file-width="4387" data-file-height="1814" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat according to the same paper<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2108146119_12-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2108146119-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This graphic was criticized for using a scenario considered unlikely and worse than the present trajectory.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2214347119_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2214347119-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div></div></div></div> <p>The paper was very high-profile, receiving extensive media coverage<sup id="cite_ref-Carrington_13-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Carrington-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Kraus_59-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kraus-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and over 180,000 page views by 2023. It was also the subject of several response papers from other scientists, all of which were also published at PNAS. Most have welcomed its proposals while disagreeing on some of the details of the suggested agenda.<sup id="cite_ref-60" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-61" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-62" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-63" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, a response paper authored by <a href="/wiki/Roger_Pielke_Jr." class="mw-redirect" title="Roger Pielke Jr.">Roger Pielke Jr.</a> and fellow <a href="/wiki/University_of_Colorado_Boulder" title="University of Colorado Boulder">University of Colorado Boulder</a> researchers Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie was far more critical. They have argued that one of the paper's main arguments—the supposed lack of research into higher levels of global warming—was baseless, as on the contrary, the scenarios of highest global warming called <a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway#RCP_8.5" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">RCP 8.5</a> and <a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">SSP5-8.5</a> have accounted for around half of all mentions in the "impacts" section of the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a>, and SSP3-7, the scenario of slightly lower warming used in some of the paper's graphics, had also assumed greater emissions and more extensive <a href="/wiki/Coal" title="Coal">coal</a> use than what had been projected by the <a href="/wiki/International_Energy_Agency" title="International Energy Agency">International Energy Agency</a>. They have also argued that just as the past projections of <a href="/wiki/Overpopulation" title="Overpopulation">overpopulation</a> were used to justify <a href="/wiki/One-child_policy" title="One-child policy">one-child policy</a> in <a href="/wiki/China" title="China">China</a>, a disproportionate focus on apocalyptic scenarios may be used to justify <a href="/wiki/Despotism" title="Despotism">despotism</a> and <a href="/wiki/Fascist" class="mw-redirect" title="Fascist">fascist</a> policies.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1073/pnas.2214347119_14-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1073/pnas.2214347119-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In response, the authors of the original paper wrote that in their view, catastrophic risks may occur even at lower levels of warming due to risks involving human responses and societal fragility. They also suggested that instead of the one-child policy, a better metaphor for responses to extreme risks research would be the 1980s exploration of the impacts of <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">nuclear winter</a>, which had spurred <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_disarmament" title="Nuclear disarmament">nuclear disarmament</a> efforts.<sup id="cite_ref-64" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15,_2019_-_29.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg/120px-San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg" decoding="async" width="120" height="160" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg/180px-San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg/240px-San_Francisco_Youth_Climate_Strike_-_March_15%2C_2019_-_29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2441" data-file-height="3254" /></a><figcaption>"Youth vs Apocalypse" banner seen at San Francisco Youth <a href="/wiki/Climate_Strike" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate Strike">Climate Strike</a> in 2019</figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Timescale">Timescale</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Timescale"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Bill McGuire (a professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards and the author of "Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant’s Guide") suggest that the collapse may occur by 2050.<sup id="cite_ref-65" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A study published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in the year of 2020, suggest that "current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward the terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade—and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040".<sup id="cite_ref-66" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Public_opinion">Public opinion</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Public opinion"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage of climate change</a>, <a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impact of climate change</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Doomer" title="Doomer">Doomer</a></div> <p>Some <a href="/wiki/Opinion_poll" title="Opinion poll">public polling</a> shows that beliefs in civilizational collapse or even human extinction have become widespread amongst the general population in many countries. In 2021, a publication in <i><a href="/wiki/The_Lancet" title="The Lancet">The Lancet</a></i> surveyed 10,000 people aged 16–25 years in ten countries (<a href="/wiki/Australia" title="Australia">Australia</a>, <a href="/wiki/Brazil" title="Brazil">Brazil</a>, <a href="/wiki/Finland" title="Finland">Finland</a>, <a href="/wiki/France" title="France">France</a>, <a href="/wiki/India" title="India">India</a>, <a href="/wiki/Nigeria" title="Nigeria">Nigeria</a>, <a href="/wiki/Philippines" title="Philippines">Philippines</a>, <a href="/wiki/Portugal" title="Portugal">Portugal</a>, the <a href="/wiki/UK" class="mw-redirect" title="UK">UK</a>, and the <a href="/wiki/USA" class="mw-redirect" title="USA">US</a>): one of its findings was 55% of respondents agreeing with the statement "humanity is doomed".<sup id="cite_ref-Lancet2021_19-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Lancet2021-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2020, a survey by a French think tank <a href="/wiki/Jean_Jaur%C3%A8s" title="Jean Jaurès">Jean Jaurès</a> Foundation found that in five <a href="/wiki/Developed_countries" class="mw-redirect" title="Developed countries">developed countries</a> (France, <a href="/wiki/Germany" title="Germany">Germany</a>, <a href="/wiki/Italy" title="Italy">Italy</a>, the UK and the US), a significant fraction of the population agreed with the statement that "civilization as we know it will collapse in the years to come"; the percentages ranged from 39% in Germany and 52% or 56% in the US and the UK to 65% in France and 71% in Italy.<sup id="cite_ref-JJ2020_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-JJ2020-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth_2100" title="Earth 2100">Earth 2100</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse" title="Late Bronze Age collapse">Late Bronze Age collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Classic_Maya_collapse" title="Classic Maya collapse">Classic Maya collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Migration_era" class="mw-redirect" title="Migration era">Migration era</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Selma_Arrhenius_19021015-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Selma_Arrhenius_19021015_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/570090173/">"Hint to Coal Consumers"</a>. <i>The Selma Morning Times</i>. 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Here's how I'm preparing"</a>. I news<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">13 November</span> 2024</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=I%E2%80%99m+a+climate+scientist+and+I+think+society+will+collapse+by+2050.+Here%E2%80%99s+how+I%E2%80%99m+preparing&rft.date=2023-09-25&rft.aulast=Peake&rft.aufirst=Eleanor&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fscientist-think-society-collapse-by-2050-how-preparing-2637469&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AClimate+change+and+civilizational+collapse" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-66"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-66">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.enviro.or.id/2023/07/mit-predicted-in-1972-that-society-will-collapse-this-century-new-research-shows-were-on-schedule/">"MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We're on Schedule"</a>. <i>Environment Institute</i>. Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">13 November</span> 2024</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Environment+Institute&rft.atitle=MIT+Predicted+in+1972+That+Society+Will+Collapse+This+Century.+New+Research+Shows+We%E2%80%99re+on+Schedule&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.enviro.or.id%2F2023%2F07%2Fmit-predicted-in-1972-that-society-will-collapse-this-century-new-research-shows-were-on-schedule%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AClimate+change+and+civilizational+collapse" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Works_cited">Works cited</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Works cited"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNational_Geographic2007" class="citation book cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/144922970"><i>Essential Visual History of the World</i></a>. Washington, D.C.: National Geographic. 2007. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-4262-0091-5" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-4262-0091-5"><bdi>978-1-4262-0091-5</bdi></a>. <a href="/wiki/OCLC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="OCLC (identifier)">OCLC</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/oclc/144922970">144922970</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Essential+Visual+History+of+the+World&rft.place=Washington%2C+D.C.&rft.pub=National+Geographic&rft.date=2007&rft_id=info%3Aoclcnum%2F144922970&rft.isbn=978-1-4262-0091-5&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldcat.org%2Foclc%2F144922970&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AClimate+change+and+civilizational+collapse" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style 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style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible expanded navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Overview" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Overview</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Climate change adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Causes" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">Climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a> (<a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">Scientific consensus on climate change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">Representative Concentration Pathway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/16px-Climate_change_icon.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="15" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/24px-Climate_change_icon.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/32px-Climate_change_icon.png 2x" data-file-width="1112" data-file-height="1056" /></span></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Climate_change" title="Portal:Climate 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