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Horse race journalism - Wikipedia

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.sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style><table class="sidebar nomobile nowraplinks"><tbody><tr><th class="sidebar-title" style="background:#efefef;padding:0.4em;"><a href="/wiki/Journalism" title="Journalism">Journalism</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-image"><span class="notpageimage" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_(cropped).jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5b/Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg/250px-Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="250" height="143" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5b/Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg/375px-Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5b/Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg/500px-Radio._CBC_Offices_BAnQ_P48S1P23108_%28cropped%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="766" data-file-height="438" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/News" title="News">News</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/News_style" title="News style">Writing style</a> (<a href="/wiki/Five_Ws" title="Five Ws">Five Ws</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Journalism_ethics_and_standards" title="Journalism ethics and standards">Ethics</a> (<a href="/wiki/Code_of_ethics_in_media" title="Code of ethics in media">code of ethics</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Journalism_culture" title="Journalism culture">Culture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Journalistic_objectivity" title="Journalistic objectivity">Objectivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/News_values" title="News values">News values</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Source_(journalism)" title="Source (journalism)">Attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Defamation" title="Defamation">Defamation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sensationalism" title="Sensationalism">Sensationalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Editorial_independence" title="Editorial independence">Editorial independence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Journalism_school" title="Journalism school">Journalism school</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Index_of_journalism_articles" title="Index of journalism articles">Index of journalism articles</a></li></ul></td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#efefef;"> Areas</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arts_journalism" title="Arts journalism">Arts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_journalism" title="Business journalism">Business</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Data_journalism" title="Data journalism">Data</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Entertainment_journalism" title="Entertainment journalism">Entertainment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_journalism" title="Environmental journalism">Environment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fashion_journalism" title="Fashion journalism">Fashion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Medical_journalism" title="Medical journalism">Medicine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Music_journalism" title="Music journalism">Music</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_journalism" title="Political journalism">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Science_journalism" title="Science journalism">Science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sports_journalism" title="Sports journalism">Sports</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Technology_journalism" title="Technology journalism">Technology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Traffic_reporting" title="Traffic reporting">Traffic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Video_game_journalism" title="Video game journalism">Video games</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/War_correspondent" title="War correspondent">War</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Weather_forecasting" title="Weather forecasting">Weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_news" title="World news">World</a></li></ul> </td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#efefef;"> Genres</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Adversarial_journalism" title="Adversarial journalism">Adversarial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Advocacy_journalism" title="Advocacy journalism">Advocacy</a> (<a href="/wiki/Journalistic_interventionism" title="Journalistic interventionism">Interventionism</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Analytic_journalism" title="Analytic journalism">Analytic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Blog" title="Blog">Blogging</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Broadcast_journalism" title="Broadcast journalism">Broadcast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Churnalism" title="Churnalism">Churnalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Citizen_journalism" title="Citizen journalism">Citizen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Civic_journalism" title="Civic journalism">Civic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Collaborative_journalism" title="Collaborative journalism">Collaborative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Comics_journalism" title="Comics journalism">Comics-based</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Community_journalism" title="Community journalism">Community</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Data_journalism" title="Data journalism">Data</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Database_journalism" title="Database journalism">Database</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Digital_journalism" title="Digital journalism">Digital/Online</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Explanatory_journalism" title="Explanatory journalism">Explanatory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fact-checking" title="Fact-checking">Fact-checking</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gonzo_journalism" title="Gonzo journalism">Gonzo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human-interest_story" title="Human-interest story">Human-interest</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Immersion_journalism" title="Immersion journalism">Immersion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interpretive_journalism" title="Interpretive journalism">Interpretive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Investigative_journalism" title="Investigative journalism">Investigative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multimedia_journalism" title="Multimedia journalism">Multimedia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Narrative_journalism" title="Narrative journalism">Narrative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Journalism" title="New Journalism">New Journalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Non-profit_journalism" class="mw-redirect" title="Non-profit journalism">Non-profit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Opinion_journalism" title="Opinion journalism">Opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peace_journalism" title="Peace journalism">Peace</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Photojournalism" title="Photojournalism">Photojournalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Press_release" title="Press release">Press release</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sensor_journalism" title="Sensor journalism">Sensor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tabloid_journalism" title="Tabloid journalism">Tabloid</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Underground_press" title="Underground press">Underground</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Video_journalism" title="Video journalism">Video</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Visual_journalism" title="Visual journalism">Visual</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Watchdog_journalism" title="Watchdog journalism">Watchdog</a></li></ul> </td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#efefef;"> Social impact</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fake_news" title="Fake news">Fake news</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fourth_Estate" title="Fourth Estate">Fourth Estate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fifth_Estate" title="Fifth Estate">Fifth Estate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Freedom_of_the_press" title="Freedom of the press">Freedom of the press</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Infotainment" title="Infotainment">Infotainment</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Horse race journalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias" title="Media bias">Media bias</a> (<a href="/wiki/False_balance" title="False balance">False balance</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pink-slime_journalism" title="Pink-slime journalism">Pink-slime journalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_relations" title="Public relations">Public relations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Propaganda_model" title="Propaganda model">Propaganda model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Yellow_journalism" title="Yellow journalism">Yellow journalism</a></li></ul> </td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#efefef;"> <a href="/wiki/News_media" title="News media">News media</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Newspaper" title="Newspaper">Newspapers</a> (<a href="/wiki/Newspaper_of_record" title="Newspaper of record">Newspaper of record</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Magazine" title="Magazine">Magazines</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/News_broadcasting" title="News broadcasting">TV and radio</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Online_newspaper" title="Online newspaper">Internet</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/News_agency" title="News agency">News agencies</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alternative_media" title="Alternative media">Alternative media</a></li></ul> </td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#efefef;"> Roles</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-top:0.15em;padding-bottom:0.6em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Journalist" title="Journalist">Journalists (reporters)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Columnist" title="Columnist">Columnist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Blog" title="Blog">Blogger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Editing" title="Editing">Editor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Copy_editing" title="Copy editing">Copy editor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Meteorologist" title="Meteorologist">Meteorologist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/News_presenter" title="News presenter">News presenter</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Photojournalism" title="Photojournalism">Photographer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pundit" title="Pundit">Pundit&#160;/&#32;commentator</a></li></ul> </td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-below plainlist" style="padding-top:0.1em;border-top:1px solid #aaa;border-bottom:1px solid #aaa;"> <ul><li><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/16px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/24px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/32px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="160" data-file-height="160" /></span></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Journalism" title="Portal:Journalism">Journalism&#32;portal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Journalism" title="Category:Journalism">Category:&#160;Journalism</a></li></ul></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-navbar"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Journalism_sidebar" title="Template:Journalism sidebar"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Journalism_sidebar" title="Template talk:Journalism sidebar"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Journalism_sidebar" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Journalism sidebar"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p><b>Horse race journalism</b> is <a href="/wiki/Political_journalism" title="Political journalism">political journalism</a> of <a href="/wiki/Election" title="Election">elections</a> that resembles coverage of <a href="/wiki/Horse_races" class="mw-redirect" title="Horse races">horse races</a> because of the focus on polling data and public perception instead of candidate policy, and almost exclusive reporting on candidate differences rather than similarities. "For journalists, the horse-race metaphor provides a framework for analysis. A horse is judged not by its own absolute speed or skill, but rather by its comparison to the speed of other horses, and especially by its wins and losses."<sup id="cite_ref-jstor_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jstor-1"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> Horse race journalism dominates media coverage during elections in the United States.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p><p>A 2018 meta-analysis found that horse-race coverage reduces citizens' substantive knowledge of politics (such as policies or candidates' issue positions) and fosters political cynicism and alienation.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> More recent versions of horserace coverage that produce forecasts has been shown to reduce voting in multiple studies.<sup id="cite_ref-forecasts_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-forecasts-4"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Analysis">Analysis</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=1" title="Edit section: Analysis"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Horse race journalism is known to be a very negative subject in politics, but can be useful during <a href="/wiki/Partisan_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="Partisan primary">primaries</a> in American elections.<sup id="cite_ref-Politico_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Politico-5"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> Although it does show the standings of a poll or caucus, it fails to display the strengths/weaknesses of each politician. Media outlets have often used horse-race journalism with the intent of making elections appear more competitive and thus increasing the odds of gaining larger audiences while covering <a href="/wiki/Political_campaign" title="Political campaign">election campaigns</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-ioppav_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ioppav-6"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fapppzv555t-7"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p><p>Political scientists and strategists argue that elections are more often decided by underlying factors than by the campaign. In the 1980s, <a href="/wiki/Allan_Lichtman" title="Allan Lichtman">Allan Lichtman</a> and <a href="/wiki/Vladimir_Keilis-Borok" title="Vladimir Keilis-Borok">Vladimir Keilis-Borok</a> devised the <a href="/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House" title="The Keys to the White House">Keys to the White House</a> model for predicting United States presidential elections, which took into account events of the incumbent presidency and the economy, but not the strategies and events of the campaign.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Shanto_Iyengar" title="Shanto Iyengar">Shanto Iyengar</a> similarly argued in 2005 that while campaign strategies can have an effect, "The results of presidential elections can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy from indicators of economic growth and public approval of the incumbent administration."<sup id="cite_ref-Iyengar_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Iyengar-9"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Mark_Pack" title="Mark Pack">Mark Pack</a>, a British politician and former campaign manager, noted that in 14 of the 16 United Kingdom general elections from 1964 to 2019, the party leading most polls in the previous January subsequently won the most votes. He likened the last month before election day to "the last few minutes" of a sports game.<sup id="cite_ref-bad-news_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bad-news-10"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> A 2018 study in the <i><a href="/wiki/American_Political_Science_Review" title="American Political Science Review">American Political Science Review</a></i> found that campaigning methods do not usually influence an election outcome, and can only do so under specific conditions.<sup id="cite_ref-kalla-brockman_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kalla-brockman-11"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p><p>This form of political coverage involves <a href="/wiki/Political_handicapping" title="Political handicapping">politically handicapping</a> stronger candidates and hyping <a href="/wiki/Dark_horse" title="Dark horse">dark horse</a> contenders who are widely regarded as <a href="/wiki/Underdog_(term)" class="mw-redirect" title="Underdog (term)">underdogs</a> when election cycles begin.<sup id="cite_ref-ioppav_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ioppav-6"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fapppzv555t-7"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Benjamin_Disraeli" title="Benjamin Disraeli">Benjamin Disraeli</a> used the term "dark horse" to describe horse racing in 1831 in The Young Duke, writing, "a dark horse which had never been thought of and which the careless St. James had never even observed in the list, rushed past the grandstand in sweeping triumph."<sup id="cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fapppzv555t-7"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> Political analyst <a href="/wiki/Larry_Sabato" title="Larry Sabato">Larry Sabato</a> stated in his 2006 book <i>Encyclopedia of American Political Parties and Elections</i> that Disraeli's description of dark horses "now fits in neatly with the media's trend towards horse-race journalism and penchant for using sports analogies to describe presidential politics."<sup id="cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fapppzv555t-7"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="In_United_States_presidential_elections">In United States presidential elections</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=2" title="Edit section: In United States presidential elections"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="1976_United_States_presidential_election">1976 United States presidential election</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=3" title="Edit section: 1976 United States presidential election"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>During the <a href="/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election" title="1976 United States presidential election">1976 United States presidential election</a>, reporting of public opinion polls related to a horse-race image of campaign reporting. At this time, journalists reported in a way that portrayed the image of elections as a sporting event. Journalists ignored prediction, reported segments of the sample, dramatized spectacles, selectively compared results, made a number of errors, challenged the legitimacy of polling and disregarded certain data in their reporting.<sup id="cite_ref-broh_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-broh-12"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-jstor_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jstor-1"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="1988_United_States_presidential_election">1988 United States presidential election</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=4" title="Edit section: 1988 United States presidential election"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>During the 1988 presidential election, horse-race reporting is believed to have a large impact on the four leading Democratic presidential primary candidates. The activities of potential campaign contributors and the public support for candidates were affected by portrayals created by the media. The amount of political campaigns reported by horse-race journalism has been appropriately detailed, however the ramifications for the dynamics of campaigns are far less known. Horse-race spin, the degree of media coverage implying a candidate is gaining or losing political support, is associated with the 1988 presidential election. A time-series analysis of contributor behavior proposes that horse-race spin somewhat decides the prevalence of campaign contributions. Relating to the previous time-series analysis, some contributors are swayed to donate by coverage offering that their strongly preferred candidate is losing ground, whereas other candidacies prosper from coverage suggesting increased instability. Overall, research provides that strategic considerations greatly affect the decision to donate money to political candidates.<sup id="cite_ref-coverage_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-coverage-13"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-joppav_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-joppav-14"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="1992_United_States_presidential_election">1992 United States presidential election</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=5" title="Edit section: 1992 United States presidential election"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Three studies were conducted during the 1992 presidential election: a controlled experiment, a statewide one-time survey and a three-county two-wave panel survey. Each of the studies communicates a positive relationship among issue knowledge and horse-race polls. Media critics often criticize the coverage of horse-race polls because it competes with issue coverage.<sup id="cite_ref-learning_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-learning-15"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-bleske_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bleske-16"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2016_United_States_presidential_election">2016 United States presidential election</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=6" title="Edit section: 2016 United States presidential election"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Horse race coverage, and election forecasts in particular were cited as a potential factor in Donald J. Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton. Clinton herself <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/05/hillary-clinton-life-after-election.html?mid=nymag_press">claimed</a> people stayed home because of a perception that she was the inevitable winner. Horserace coverage, forecasters, and polling in general drew criticism from many different sources in the wake of the 2016 election.<sup id="cite_ref-victor_17-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-victor-17"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-forecasts_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-forecasts-4"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Horse_race_journalism&amp;action=edit&amp;section=7" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-jstor-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-jstor_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-jstor_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFBroh1980" class="citation journal cs1">Broh, Anthony (Winter 1980). 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"Projecting confidence: How the probabilistic horse race confuses and demobilizes the public". <i>Journal of Politics</i>. <b>82</b> (4): 1530–1544. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1086%2F708682">10.1086/708682</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a>&#160;<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:216251082">216251082</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rft.genre=article&amp;rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Politics&amp;rft.atitle=Projecting+confidence%3A+How+the+probabilistic+horse+race+confuses+and+demobilizes+the+public&amp;rft.volume=82&amp;rft.issue=4&amp;rft.pages=1530-1544&amp;rft.date=2020&amp;rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1086%2F708682&amp;rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A216251082%23id-name%3DS2CID&amp;rft.aulast=Westwood&amp;rft.aufirst=Sean&amp;rft.au=Messing%2C+Solomon&amp;rft.au=Lelkes%2C+Yphtach&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AHorse+race+journalism" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Politico-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Politico_5-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFShafer,_Jack2019" class="citation web cs1">Shafer, Jack (2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/09/why-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867/">"Why Horse-Race Political Journalism Is Awesome"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Politico" title="Politico">Politico</a></i>. p.&#160;<a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/09/why-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867/">https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/09/why-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867/</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rft.genre=unknown&amp;rft.jtitle=Politico&amp;rft.atitle=Why+Horse-Race+Political+Journalism+Is+Awesome&amp;rft.pages=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fmagazine%2Fstory%2F2019%2F01%2F09%2Fwhy-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867%2F&amp;rft.date=2019&amp;rft.au=Shafer%2C+Jack&amp;rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fmagazine%2Fstory%2F2019%2F01%2F09%2Fwhy-horse-race-political-journalism-awesome-223867%2F&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AHorse+race+journalism" class="Z3988"></span>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ioppav-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ioppav_6-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ioppav_6-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120413063840/http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_02/hyping_the_horse_race035218.php">"Kilgore, Ed "Hyping the Horse Race"<span class="cs1-kern-right"></span>"</a>. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2012-09-18</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&amp;rft.genre=unknown&amp;rft.btitle=Kilgore%2C+Ed+%22Hyping+the+Horse+Race%22&amp;rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonmonthly.com%2Fpolitical-animal-a%2F2012_02%2Fhyping_the_horse_race035218.php&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AHorse+race+journalism" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-fapppzv555t-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-fapppzv555t_7-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFLarry_SabatoHoward_R._Ernst2006" class="citation book cs1">Larry Sabato; Howard R. Ernst (2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/encyclopediaofam00saba/page/90"><i>Encyclopedia of American Political Parties and Elections</i></a>. Facts On File. p.&#160;<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/encyclopediaofam00saba/page/90">90</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a>&#160;<a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0816058754" title="Special:BookSources/978-0816058754"><bdi>978-0816058754</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&amp;rft.genre=book&amp;rft.btitle=Encyclopedia+of+American+Political+Parties+and+Elections&amp;rft.pages=90&amp;rft.pub=Facts+On+File&amp;rft.date=2006&amp;rft.isbn=978-0816058754&amp;rft.au=Larry+Sabato&amp;rft.au=Howard+R.+Ernst&amp;rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fencyclopediaofam00saba%2Fpage%2F90&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AHorse+race+journalism" class="Z3988"></span> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a>&#160;<a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780816058754" title="Special:BookSources/9780816058754">9780816058754</a> (2006 version).</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#refKashina2014">Kashina (2014), <i>Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography</i>, p. 107</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Iyengar-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Iyengar_9-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFIyengar2005" class="citation journal cs1">Iyengar, Shanto (January 2005). 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