CBO鈥檚 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

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class="top-section" style="position: relative;"> <h1 class="title" id="page-title"> <span>CBO鈥檚 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security</span> </h1> <div class="meta"> <div class="field field--name-field-display-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2024-08-28T12:00:00Z">August 28, 2024</time> </div> <div class="content-type">Report</div> </div> <article id="node-60678" class=""> <div class="posted"> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--interactive-graphics paragraph--view-mode--preview"> <div class="interactive-label">Interactive</div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive-graphics-code field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"> <div id="highcharts-90b0e3be-8e95-48c8-ac24-f595aa781ddb"></div><script> (function(){ var files = 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benefits\"\n1995;4.77;4.45;4.45\n1996;4.78;4.38;4.38\n1997;4.83;4.3;4.3\n1998;4.85;4.22;4.22\n1999;4.89;4.08;4.08\n2000;4.92;4.05;4.05\n2001;5;4.15;4.15\n2002;5;4.22;4.22\n2003;4.77;4.18;4.18\n2004;4.66;4.11;4.11\n2005;4.66;4.06;4.06\n2006;4.65;4.02;4.02\n2007;4.66;4.11;4.11\n2008;4.66;4.23;4.23\n2009;4.76;4.74;4.74\n2010;4.41;4.73;4.73\n2011;4.43;4.72;4.72\n2012;4.5;4.83;4.83\n2013;4.46;4.87;4.87\n2014;4.46;4.88;4.88\n2015;4.52;4.9;4.9\n2016;4.62;4.9;4.9\n2017;4.65;4.86;4.86\n2018;4.45;4.84;4.84\n2019;4.56;4.92;4.92\n2020;4.89;5.19;5.19\n2021;4.32;4.85;4.85\n2022;4.49;4.83;4.83\n2023;4.69;5.09;5.09\n2024;4.65;5.13;5.13\n2025;4.65;5.25;5.25\n2026;4.7;5.38;5.38\n2027;4.71;5.5;5.5\n2028;4.72;5.59;5.59\n2029;4.73;5.69;5.69\n2030;4.73;5.76;5.76\n2031;4.73;5.85;5.85\n2032;4.72;5.9;5.9\n2033;4.72;5.97;5.97\n2034;4.72;6.02;6.02\n2035;4.64;6;4.64\n2036;4.62;6;4.62\n2037;4.6;5.98;4.6\n2038;4.59;5.96;4.59\n2039;4.57;5.92;4.57\n2040;4.55;5.88;4.55\n2041;4.54;5.88;4.54\n2042;4.52;5.88;4.52\n2043;4.51;5.86;4.51\n2044;4.49;5.84;4.49\n2045;4.47;5.83;4.47\n2046;4.46;5.83;4.46\n2047;4.45;5.83;4.45\n2048;4.43;5.83;4.43\n2049;4.42;5.81;4.42\n2050;4.4;5.83;4.4\n2051;4.39;5.85;4.39\n2052;4.38;5.87;4.38\n2053;4.36;5.86;4.36\n2054;4.35;5.91;4.35\n2055;4.34;5.9;4.34\n2056;4.34;5.94;4.34\n2057;4.35;5.94;4.35\n2058;4.35;5.98;4.35\n2059;4.36;6;4.36\n2060;4.36;5.97;4.36\n2061;4.36;6.03;4.36\n2062;4.36;6.04;4.36\n2063;4.37;6.1;4.37\n2064;4.38;6.11;4.38\n2065;4.38;6.12;4.38\n2066;4.38;6.14;4.38\n2067;4.38;6.19;4.38\n2068;4.39;6.25;4.39\n2069;4.39;6.27;4.39\n2070;4.4;6.29;4.4\n2071;4.4;6.34;4.4\n2072;4.41;6.39;4.41\n2073;4.42;6.37;4.42\n2074;4.42;6.43;4.42\n2075;4.43;6.46;4.43\n2076;4.43;6.49;4.43\n2077;4.44;6.5;4.44\n2078;4.44;6.51;4.44\n2079;4.45;6.52;4.45\n2080;4.45;6.52;4.45\n2081;4.46;6.57;4.46\n2082;4.46;6.53;4.46\n2083;4.47;6.58;4.47\n2084;4.47;6.52;4.47\n2085;4.48;6.56;4.48\n2086;4.48;6.59;4.48\n2087;4.49;6.56;4.49\n2088;4.5;6.58;4.5\n2089;4.5;6.57;4.5\n2090;4.51;6.59;4.51\n2091;4.51;6.6;4.51\n2092;4.51;6.58;4.51\n2093;4.52;6.63;4.52\n2094;4.53;6.61;4.53\n2095;4.53;6.63;4.53\n2096;4.54;6.63;4.54\n2097;4.55;6.66;4.55\n2098;4.56;6.66;4.56","googleSpreadsheetKey":false,"googleSpreadsheetWorksheet":false},"pane":{"background":[]},"responsive":{"rules":[]},"tooltip":{"shared":true,"valueDecimals":1,"headerFormat":"<span 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Office."},"exporting":{"enabled":true},"colors":["#7030A0","#434348","#90ed7d","#f7a35c","#8085e9","#f15c80","#e4d354","#2b908f","#f45b5b","#91e8e1"],"plotOptions":{"series":{"marker":{"enabled":false},"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}}},"xAxis":[{"min":1995,"max":2098,"tickColor":"#9e9e9e","tickLength":7,"lineColor":"#9e9e9e","tickInterval":10,"visible":true,"endOnTick":false,"tickPosition":"inside","tickWidth":1,"lineWidth":1,"gridLineColor":"","minorGridLineColor":"","alternateGridColor":null,"minorTickColor":"","minorTickLength":0,"minorGridLineWidth":0,"gridZIndex":0,"gridLineWidth":0,"startOnTick":false,"plotLines":[{"label":{"text":"Projected","rotation":0,"style":{"fontSize":"14px"}},"value":2024,"dashStyle":"dash"}],"labels":{"style":{"fontSize":"14px"}},"tickmarkPlacement":"between","crosshair":{"snap":true}}],"yAxis":[{"lineColor":"#9e9e9e","gridLineWidth":0,"max":8,"min":0,"lineWidth":1,"tickInterval":2,"tickLength":7,"tickColor":"#9e9e9e","visible":true,"tooltipValueFormat":"","tickmarkPlacement":"between","tickPosition":"inside","tickWidth":1,"title":{"text":""},"labels":{"style":{"fontSize":"14px"}},"alignTicks":true,"offset":0}]};let fontFamily = "'source_sans_prosemibold','Helvetica','Roboto','Arial',sans-serif"; Highcharts.merge(true, options, { chart: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, exporting: { buttons: { contextButton: { menuItems: ["printChart","separator","downloadPNG","downloadJPEG","downloadPDF","downloadSVG"], }, }, }, title: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, subtitle: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, }); new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-90b0e3be-8e95-48c8-ac24-f595aa781ddb", options);}}})(); </script></div> </div> </div> </article> <div class="summary"><div class="view view-summary view-id-summary view-display-id-meta_summary js-view-dom-id-e136cd7f0969bd907699192021abc39eaf359aeaf2312668164f4718878d1b28"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><p>In CBO鈥檚 projections, spending for Social Security rises relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the balances in the program鈥檚 trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <section class="meta--data"> <div class="left"> <div id="toc"></div> </div> <div class="right" style=""> <div class="documents" style=""> <div class="view view-html-report-link view-id-html_report_link view-display-id-link js-view-dom-id-8675969bc1a9bc84f4827ff8cc74cdfa43f425509662904668cb554c0f71f039"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-title-1"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60679">View Document</a></span></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="view view-view-document view-id-view_document view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-fb3444e561e107bedf4ca9f665e4e8755bb1e77087777143239294ed73163802"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"> <a href="/system/files/2024-08/60392-Social-Security.pdf">View Document</a><div class="document-size">1.19 MB</div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="main-section"> <section class="summary"> <header role="button" class="head-section" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="content-panel"><h2>Summary</h2></header> <div class="content" id="content-panel" aria-hidden="true"> <article> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its 75-year projections for the Social Security program. One set of projections reflects a scenario in which the program continues to pay retirement, disability, and related benefits as scheduled under current law, regardless of whether the program鈥檚 two trust funds have sufficient balances to cover those payments. The second set of projections reflects a scenario in which Social Security鈥檚 outlays are limited to the amounts that can be paid from the program鈥檚 annual revenues after the combined balance of the trust funds is exhausted鈥攚hich is now projected to occur in fiscal year 2034.</p><ul><li><strong>Social Security鈥檚 Finances, With Scheduled Benefits.</strong> CBO projects that if Social Security paid benefits as scheduled, spending on the program would increase from 5.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 to 6.7 percent in 2098. That increase is attributable to the growing share of the population age 65 or older. The program鈥檚 revenues would remain near 4.5 percent of GDP during that 75-year period. After 2098, the gap between revenues and outlays as a percentage of GDP would widen, and shortfalls would continue to grow.<br><br>In CBO鈥檚 projections, the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is exhausted in fiscal year 2033, and the balance of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund is exhausted in 2064. Social Security鈥檚 actuarial deficit over the next 75 years, a summary measure of the program鈥檚 sustainability, is equal to 1.5 percent of GDP or 4.3 percent of taxable payroll (total earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax).</li><li style="margin-top:1.5rem;"><strong>Distribution of Scheduled Benefits and Payroll Taxes.</strong> Average initial benefits are projected to increase over time in real terms (that is, after adjustments to remove the effects of inflation). For people born from the 1950s to the 1990s, those initial benefits replace more than one-third of preretirement earnings for retired workers and more than half of average recent earnings for disabled workers. Within a cohort of Social Security recipients who were born in the same decade, people with higher earnings generally receive larger benefits than people with lower earnings, but those larger benefits replace a smaller share of their previous earnings. People with higher earnings also generally pay a larger dollar amount鈥攂ut a smaller share of their lifetime earnings鈥攊n Social Security payroll taxes. The Social Security program is progressive in that lifetime benefits tend to be larger relative to lifetime payroll taxes for people with lower earnings than for people with higher earnings.</li><li style="margin-top:1.5rem;"><strong>Social Security鈥檚 Finances, With Payable Benefits.</strong> If Social Security鈥檚 outlays were limited to the amounts that could be paid from annual revenues after the combined balance of the trust funds was exhausted in fiscal year 2034, benefits would be about 23 percent smaller than scheduled benefits in 2035, CBO projects. Payable benefits would be about 28 percent smaller than scheduled benefits in 2098.</li><li style="margin-top:1.5rem;"><strong>Distribution of Payable Benefits.</strong> In the payable-benefits scenario, average initial retirement benefits resume growing over time after the combined balance of the trust funds is exhausted. But those benefits are smaller than scheduled benefits for people born after 1969 (who turn 65 after 2034).</li></ul></div> </article> </div> </section> <section class="documents"> <header class="head-section"> <a name="data"></a> <h2 id="">Data and Supplemental Information</h2> </header> <div class="content"> <div class="view view-supplemental-attachments view-id-supplemental_attachments view-display-id-block_3 js-view-dom-id-cdbb60bd4936049a063fd2e0b6bbc0bc122ba091b0b92acd496737d5ddbc11ab"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-08/60392-Data.xlsx">Data Underlying Figures and Table</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-08/60392-Long-Term-Social-Security-Projections.xlsx">CBO's 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-08/60392-Additional-Info.xlsx">Projections Underlying Social Security Estimates</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="related-publications"> <header class="head-section" role="button"><a name="related_pub"></a><h2 id="">Related Publications</h2></header> <div class="content"><div class="view view-related view-id-related view-display-id-publications js-view-dom-id-99ef7b4488b34b06955871b3332498f65a7ea31056aaebb0a8a1a0e32f29129e"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60516" hreflang="en">Raising the Full Retirement Age for Social Security</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-09-25T12:00:00Z">September 25, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60691" hreflang="en">Testimony on Social Security鈥檚 Finances</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-09-11T12:00:00Z">September 11, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60281" hreflang="en">Testimony on Social Security鈥檚 Finances</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-06-04T12:00:00Z">June 4, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59711" hreflang="en">The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-03-20T12:00:00Z">March 20, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59697" hreflang="en">The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-01-18T12:00:00Z">January 18, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59184" hreflang="en">CBO鈥檚 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-06-29T12:00:00Z">June 29, 2023</time> </div></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> </article> </section> </section> </main> <footer id="site-footer" role="contentinfo"> <div class="footer-top-wrapper"> <section class="footer-top"> <section id="block-cbo-stayconnected" class="block block-block-content block-block-content121d8e86-2c04-4907-8bda-853870ff58b5"> <h2 >Stay Connected</h2> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><form action="https://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" id="email-updates-signup" method="POST" name="FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903"><fieldset><legend>Get CBO鈥檚 Email Updates</legend></fieldset><ol><li><label class="structural" for="email-updates-signup-input">Email Address</label> <input id="email-updates-signup-input" maxlength="64" name="EMAIL" 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CBO鈥檚 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security | Congressional Budget Office