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block-system block-system-main-block"> <article> <div> <div class="top-section" style="position: relative;"> <h1 class="title" id="page-title"> <span>The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054</span> </h1> <div class="meta"> <div class="field field--name-field-display-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2024-03-20T12:00:00Z">March 20, 2024</time> </div> <div class="content-type">Report</div> </div> <article id="node-60124" class=""> <div class="posted"> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--interactive-graphics paragraph--view-mode--preview"> <div class="interactive-label">Interactive</div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive-graphics-code field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"> <div id="highcharts-c0fe2f75-4db2-4828-9f7e-766fe9c25e41"></div><script> (function(){ var files = 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fontFamily = "'source_sans_prosemibold','Helvetica','Roboto','Arial',sans-serif"; Highcharts.merge(true, options, { chart: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, exporting: { buttons: { contextButton: { menuItems: ["printChart","separator","downloadPNG","downloadJPEG","downloadPDF","downloadSVG"], }, }, }, title: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, subtitle: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, }); new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-c0fe2f75-4db2-4828-9f7e-766fe9c25e41", options);}}})(); </script></div> </div> </div> </article> <div class="summary"><div class="view view-summary view-id-summary view-display-id-meta_summary js-view-dom-id-a47576e6f5f47d7e9986821f7c914e7d8f9ff4dcfd80e1582391c31d02a8dd13"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><p>The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <section class="meta--data"> <div class="left"> <div id="toc"></div> </div> <div class="right" style=""> <div class="documents" style=""> <div class="view view-html-report-link view-id-html_report_link view-display-id-link js-view-dom-id-fe2fb69ae3208b93cae56acea2d37e876fe678db533ef1aaf19121380b4dd939"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-title-1"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60127">View Document</a></span></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="view view-view-document view-id-view_document view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-e0bc560cb79778f37ff769626c5087feb3a98541586ed9f8f75ed8a409cf55b7"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"> <a href="/system/files/2024-03/59711-Long-Term-Outlook-2024.pdf">View Document</a><div class="document-size">3.14 MB</div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="subsequent_report"><div class="view view-subsequent-report view-id-subsequent_report view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-2fdbff0dbec587d7e783eb662d541b425735fb934786c4533cecc15e9ea067a6"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-field-subsequent-report"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-03/59711-LTBO-By-the-Numbers.pdf">By the Numbers (PDF)</a>  |  <a href="/system/files/2024-03/59711-LTBO-Executive-Summary.pdf">Executive Summary (PDF)</a></div></div></div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="main-section"> <section class="summary"> <header role="button" class="head-section" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="content-panel"><h2>Summary</h2></header> <div class="content" id="content-panel" aria-hidden="true"> <article> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><h3 style="margin-top:0;">The Federal Budget</h3><p><strong>The deficit</strong> increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5 percent of GDP in 2054. That growth results from rising interest costs and large and sustained primary deficits, which exclude net outlays for interest. Primary deficits are especially large given the forecast of low unemployment rates; those deficits average 0.6 percentage points of GDP more over the next 30 years than they did over the past 50 years.</p><p><strong>Debt held by the public</strong>, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter. That mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.</p><div data-entity-type="node" data-entity-uuid="4323b1c6-808f-4e0f-8285-736606381f3d" data-embed-button="interactive" data-entity-embed-display="view_mode:node.teaser" data-langcode="en" data-entity-embed-display-settings="[]" class="embedded-entity"><article id="node-60125" class> <div class="posted"> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--interactive-graphics paragraph--view-mode--preview"> <div class="interactive-label">Interactive</div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive-graphics-code field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><div 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Rising interest costs and spending for the major health care programs, particularly Medicare, drive that growth.</p><p><strong>Revenues</strong>, measured as a percentage of GDP, fluctuate over the next decade and rise thereafter, reaching 18.8 percent of GDP in 2054, as growth in income boosts receipts from the individual income tax.</p><div data-entity-type="node" data-entity-uuid="3e3c89e2-87b9-44fc-9f87-6385e2cd75ba" data-embed-button="interactive" data-entity-embed-display="view_mode:node.teaser" data-langcode="en" data-entity-embed-display-settings="[]" class="embedded-entity"><article id="node-60126" class> <div class="posted"> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--interactive-graphics paragraph--view-mode--preview"> <div class="interactive-label">Interactive</div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive-graphics-code field--type-text-long 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fontFamily = "'source_sans_prosemibold','Helvetica','Roboto','Arial',sans-serif"; Highcharts.merge(true, options, { chart: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, exporting: { buttons: { contextButton: { menuItems: ["printChart","separator","downloadPNG","downloadJPEG","downloadPDF","downloadSVG"], }, }, }, title: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, subtitle: { style: { fontFamily: fontFamily, }, }, }); new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-faf4baa0-4fb7-48cd-8d9b-a52cf8f1afae", options);}}})(); </script></div> </div> </div> </article></div> <h3>Changes in CBO’s Budget Projections Since June 2023</h3><p>Measured as a percentage of GDP, the deficit is now projected to be 1.6 percentage points smaller in 2053 than it was in last year’s report, and federal debt is now projected to be 17 percentage points smaller.</p><p>A key factor contributing to smaller projected deficits is a reduction in discretionary spending stemming from the annual funding limits under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 and from the Further Continuing Appropriations and Other Extensions Act, 2024.</p><h3>The U.S. Economy</h3><p><strong>Population growth</strong>, which has a significant effect on the economy, is slower over the next 30 years than it was over the past 30 years. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2040.</p><p><strong>Economic growth</strong> is also slower over the next three decades than it was over the previous three decades. The decline in output growth is the result of slower growth of the labor force and slower accumulation of capital resulting from increased federal borrowing.</p><p><strong>Inflation</strong> slows through 2026 to a rate that is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2 percent and then remains at rates that are consistent with that goal from 2026 to 2054.</p><p><strong>Interest rates</strong> generally rise over the next three decades, largely as a result of projected increases in federal borrowing and in capital income as a share of total income.</p><h3>Changes in CBO’s Economic Projections Since June 2023</h3><p>On average, the economy is now expected to grow more rapidly over the next 30 years than the agency projected in June 2023. That increase stems from stronger growth of the potential labor force over the next 10 years, largely driven by increased net immigration, and faster capital accumulation over the next 30 years.</p></div> </article> </div> </section> <section class="documents"> <header class="head-section"> <a name="data"></a> <h2 id="">Data and Supplemental Information</h2> </header> <div class="content"> <div class="view view-supplemental-attachments view-id-supplemental_attachments view-display-id-block_3 js-view-dom-id-cc0156340de1956629dd97ff8b8eae0b4db75b77a2a4f7144e0f2316822bb75b"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-03/59711-Data.xlsx">Data Underlying Figures and Tables</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="documents data"> <div class="data-row"> <header class="head-section"><h2 id="">Budget Data</h2></header> <div class="content"> <div class="views-row"> <div class="views-field views-field-field-short-title-1"><div class="field-content"><a href="/publication/51119" hreflang="und">Long-Term Budget Projections</a> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="data-row"> <header class="head-section"><h2 id="">Economic Data</h2></header> <div class="content"> <div class="views-row"> <div class="views-field views-field-field-short-title-1"><div class="field-content"><a href="/publication/57054" hreflang="en">Long-Term Economic Projections</a> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="related-publications"> <header class="head-section" role="button"><a name="related_pub"></a><h2 id="">Related Publications</h2></header> <div class="content"><div class="view view-related view-id-related view-display-id-publications js-view-dom-id-cc71613d60b1e15358578121d7df02cf4558869804a17575f6798762eb2b361c"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/61187" hreflang="en">The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2025-03-27T12:00:00Z">March 27, 2025</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/61255" hreflang="en">Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for the Budget and Interest Rates</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2025-03-21T12:00:00Z">March 21, 2025</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60557" hreflang="en">Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-12-12T12:00:00Z">December 12, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60392" hreflang="en">CBO’s 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-08-28T12:00:00Z">August 28, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/60169" hreflang="en">The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-05-21T12:00:00Z">May 21, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59710" hreflang="en">The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-02-07T12:00:00Z">February 7, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59697" hreflang="en">The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-01-18T12:00:00Z">January 18, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59233" hreflang="en">The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-07-20T12:00:00Z">July 20, 2023</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59184" hreflang="en">CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-06-29T12:00:00Z">June 29, 2023</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59014" hreflang="en">The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-06-28T12:00:00Z">June 28, 2023</time> </div></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> </article> </section> <section class="views-element-container block block-views block-views-blockcorrections-block-1" id="block-cbo-views-block-corrections-block-1"> <h2 >Corrections and Updates</h2> <div class="view view-corrections view-id-corrections view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-d57a491ac2b7d3b52a996ae9fd0368ef9f87a00dee09d1e4cc8708abe640fa2b"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-field-corrections-and-updates"><div class="field-content"><p>CBO has corrected this report since its original publication. The correction is described at the end of the report. The agency also reposted the file of data underlying the figures and tables.</p><p>On April 5, 2024, CBO reposted the supplemental file “Long-Term Budget Projections” to add projections of gross federal debt in Table 1.</p></div></div></div> </div> </div> </section> </section> </main> <footer id="site-footer" role="contentinfo"> <div class="footer-top-wrapper"> <section class="footer-top"> <section id="block-cbo-stayconnected" class="block block-block-content block-block-content121d8e86-2c04-4907-8bda-853870ff58b5"> <h2 >Stay Connected</h2> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><form action="https://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" id="email-updates-signup" method="POST" name="FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903"><fieldset><legend>Get CBO’s Email Updates</legend></fieldset><ol><li><label class="structural" for="email-updates-signup-input">Email Address</label> <input 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