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The pages could be <b>merged</b>. You can discuss this at <b><a href="/wiki/RationalWiki:Duplicate_articles" title="RationalWiki:Duplicate articles">RationalWiki:Duplicate articles</a></b>. </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="thumb tright"><div class="thumbinner" style="width:167px;"><a href="/wiki/File:DarylBem_(cropped).jpg" class="image"><img alt="" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/DarylBem_%28cropped%29.jpg/165px-DarylBem_%28cropped%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="165" height="212" class="thumbimage" srcset="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/DarylBem_%28cropped%29.jpg/248px-DarylBem_%28cropped%29.jpg 1.5x, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/DarylBem_%28cropped%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="257" data-file-height="330" /></a> <div class="thumbcaption"><div class="magnify"><a href="/wiki/File:DarylBem_(cropped).jpg" class="internal" title="Enlarge"></a></div>Bem at the 1983 <a href="/wiki/CSICOP" class="mw-redirect" title="CSICOP">CSICOP</a> Conference</div></div></div> <table class="infobox" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" style="float: right; margin: 0 0 0.5em 0.5em; text-align:left; border: 1px solid #3d2367; width:175px;"> <tbody><tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; text-align:center; color:White; background-color:#3d2367"><b>Putting the psycho in</b><br /><a href="/wiki/Parapsychology" title="Parapsychology"><font size="4" color="White"><b>Parapsychology</b></font></a> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="background-color:#cbb4ef;" align="center"><a href="/wiki/Category:Parapsychology" title="Category:Parapsychology"><img alt="Icon psychic.svg" src="/w/images/thumb/e/e0/Icon_psychic.svg/100px-Icon_psychic.svg.png" decoding="async" width="100" height="100" srcset="/w/images/thumb/e/e0/Icon_psychic.svg/150px-Icon_psychic.svg.png 1.5x, /w/images/thumb/e/e0/Icon_psychic.svg/200px-Icon_psychic.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="200" data-file-height="200" /></a> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; color:White; background-color:#3d2367; text-align:center;"><b>Men who stare at goats</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; background-color:#cbb4ef;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Schneider_brothers" title="Schneider brothers">Schneider brothers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robin_Foy" title="Robin Foy">Robin Foy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Estelle_Roberts" title="Estelle Roberts">Estelle Roberts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bruce_Greyson" title="Bruce Greyson">Bruce Greyson</a></li></ul> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; color:white; background-color:#3d2367; text-align:center;"><b>By the powers of tinfoil</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; background-color:#cbb4ef;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Psychokinesis" title="Psychokinesis">Psychokinesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Precognition" title="Precognition">Precognition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extrasensory_perception" title="Extrasensory perception">Extrasensory perception</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Animal_communicator" title="Animal communicator">Animal communicator</a></li></ul> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/F._W._H._Myers" title="F. W. H. Myers">F. W. H. Myers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Facilitated_communication" title="Facilitated communication">Facilitated communication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Explore:_The_Journal_of_Science_and_Healing" title="Explore: The Journal of Science and Healing">Explore: The Journal of Science and Healing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ian_Stevenson" title="Ian Stevenson">Ian Stevenson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hoffman_Quadrinity_Process" title="Hoffman Quadrinity Process">Hoffman Quadrinity Process</a></li></ul> <div class="vte plainlinks" style="font-size:smaller; text-align:center;"><a href="/wiki/Template:Psychic" title="Template:Psychic">v</a> - <a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Psychic" title="Template talk:Psychic">t</a> - <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Template:Psychic&action=edit">e</a></div> </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>"<b>Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect</b>" is a paper submitted to and published in the <i>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</i> by <a href="/wiki/Daryl_J._Bem" class="mw-redirect" title="Daryl J. Bem">Daryl J. Bem</a> of Cornell University that claims to offer strong evidence for the case of <a href="/wiki/Precognition" title="Precognition">precognition</a> in humans.<sup id="cite_ref-newsci_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-newsci-1">[1]</a></sup> It gained some notoriety during its "in press" phase in late 2010, with several <a href="/wiki/Pop_science" class="mw-redirect" title="Pop science">pop science</a> organisations and blog posts covering the experiment and attempting to understand it. </p> <div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"><input type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox" style="display:none" /><div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"><h2 id="mw-toc-heading">Contents</h2><span class="toctogglespan"><label class="toctogglelabel" for="toctogglecheckbox"></label></span></div> <ul> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Methodology"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Methodology</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2"><a href="#Specific_criticisms"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Specific criticisms</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-3"><a href="#See_also"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4"><a href="#Further_reading"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">Further reading</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#References"><span class="tocnumber">5</span> <span class="toctext">References</span></a></li> </ul> </div> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Methodology">Methodology</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Methodology">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <p>The paper introduces some ingenious methodologies for rigorous study of certain kinds of <a href="/wiki/Psychic" title="Psychic">psychic</a> claims. The ingenious part comes from taking well-established <a href="/wiki/Psychological" class="mw-redirect" title="Psychological">psychological</a> tests and <i>reversing</i> the order that the individual tests are administered. For instance, in one test, participants are asked to type certain words, selected at <a href="/wiki/Random" class="mw-redirect" title="Random">random</a> from a list, and then are asked to recall words from the full list. The result is that they are capable of recalling more of the words that they had previously typed. In Bem's research, this is turned on its head: students were asked to recall words from a list and <i>then</i> asked to type a random selection of them. The result being that these students recalled the words that they would <i>later</i> type — the ones selected at random that they had no prior knowledge of at the time of the recall test. This suggests that their minds were somehow aware of what words they would experience in the future and selected them from the full list in advance! </p><p>However, the <a href="/wiki/Statistical" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical">statistical</a> analysis and subject selection criteria are highly suspect, and the statistically significant effects are likely a product of <a href="/wiki/Experimenter_bias" title="Experimenter bias">experimenter bias</a>. </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Specific_criticisms">Specific criticisms</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Specific criticisms">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <p>A response by E.J. Wagenmakers <i>et al.</i> highlights some of the major issues that call into question the validity of the analysis by Bem.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2">[2]</a></sup> </p> <ul><li>Bem has published his own research methodology and encourages the formulation of <a href="/wiki/Hypotheses" class="mw-redirect" title="Hypotheses">hypotheses</a> <i>after</i> data analysis. This form of <i><a href="/wiki/Post-hoc_fallacy" class="mw-redirect" title="Post-hoc fallacy">post-hoc</a></i> analysis makes it very difficult to determine accurate statistical significance. It also explains why Bem offers specific hypotheses that seem odd <i><a href="/wiki/A_priori" class="mw-redirect" title="A priori">a priori</a></i>, such as erotic images having a greater precognitive effect. Constructing hypotheses from the same data range used to test those hypotheses is a classic example of the <a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a></li> <li>The paper uses the <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_transposed_conditional" class="mw-redirect" title="Fallacy of the transposed conditional">fallacy of the transposed conditional</a> to make the case for <a href="/wiki/Psi" class="mw-redirect" title="Psi">psi</a> powers, essentially mixing up the difference between the probability of data given a hypothesis versus the probability of a hypothesis given data.</li> <li>Wagenmakers' analysis of the data using a Bayesian <i>t</i>-test removes the significant effects claimed by Bem.</li></ul> <p>Any new result in any field of science requires extensive independent replication before it can be accepted as valid. This is no different for <a href="/wiki/Psychic" title="Psychic">psychic</a> powers, drug studies, or theories of <a href="/wiki/Physics" title="Physics">physics</a>. At least one <a href="/wiki/Reproducibility" title="Reproducibility">replication</a> of one of the tasks Bem used has failed to show significance,<sup id="cite_ref-newsci_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-newsci-1">[1]</a></sup> and hopefully others will attempt additional replications. Researcher Richard Wiseman is attempting to create a registry of replication attempts<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a></sup> to control for <a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">publication bias</a>. </p><p>In the end, the paper offers some promising methods, but should not be taken as evidence for precognition without extensive independent replication of the results, particularly since there are significant questions about the introduction of bias into the analysis of the data. </p><p>An analysis published in <i>Psychonomic Bulletin & Review</i> found statistical evidence of publication bias in Bem's reported results.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a></sup> </p><p>In March of 2012, three independent failed replication attempts by Stuart J. Ritchie, Richard Wiseman, and <a href="/wiki/Chris_French" title="Chris French">Chris French</a> were published in <i>PLoS ONE</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a></sup> The paper also noted a failed replication published in the <i>Journal of the Society for Psychical Research</i>. Bem tried to <a href="/wiki/Special_pleading" title="Special pleading">brush it off</a> by suggesting that because the group attempting replication was <a href="/wiki/Skepticism" title="Skepticism">skeptical</a> this would negatively influence the results.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6">[6]</a></sup> According to the paper Bem presented at the Parapsychological Association 46<sup>th</sup> Annual Convention in 2003, he had actually already tested for this possibility and found that a researcher's skepticism had no such effect.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7">[7]</a></sup> The group had substantial problems trying to get their negative results published, several prominent journals refused to consider publishing a replication, and another journal rejected the paper after a negative report from one referee was later confirmed to be Daryl Bem himself.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8">[8]</a></sup> </p><p>A test of Bem's "retroactive priming" published in <i>Memory & Cognition</i> found no evidence of any such effect.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9">[9]</a></sup> </p><p>Bem has published a detailed response to Wagenmakers <i>et al.</i> in <i>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a></sup> Bem <i>et al</i> respond to other critics and present a meta-analysis of 90 experiments in a paper currently under review.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a></sup> </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="See_also">See also</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: See also">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a></li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Further_reading">Further reading</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Further reading">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf">In press version.</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/100/3/407/">Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407-425. (Published version, March 2011)</a></li></ul> <p>Unpublished failed replications: </p> <ul><li>Jeff Galak and Leif D. Nelson (2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1699970">A Replication of the Procedures from Bem (2010, Study 8) and a Failure to Replicate the Same Results</a></li> <li>Steve Snodgrass (2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1935942">Examining Retroactive Facilitation of Recall: an Adapted Replication of Bem (2011, Study 9) and Galak and Nelson (2010)</a>.</li> <li>Galak, LeBoeuf, Nelson and Simmons (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2001721">Correcting the Past: Failures to Replicate Psi</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=0Tdiu5kwjKs#t=50m46s">2011 panel discussion with Daryl Bem, Jonathan Schooler and Samuel Moulton</a>: Moulton's presentation describes a failed replication of experiment 6 and issues with Bem's reported results. Bem provided Moulton with the software and stimuli to conduct a replication in 2004. Moulton used a greater sample size, but found an insignificant effect in the opposite direction to Bem. (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~moulton/psi_panel_moulton.pdf">Moulton's slides</a>)</li> <li>Wagenmakers et al. preliminary results from failed replication of experiment 1. <a rel="nofollow" class="external autonumber" href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31749173/PSI%20OP6119.pdf">[1]</a> (Dutch)</li></ul> <p>Bem's 2003 and 2005 preliminary reports on these experiments at the Parapsychological Association Convention: </p> <ul><li>Bem, D. J. (2003). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.infoamerica.org/documentos_pdf/bem05.pdf">Precognitive habituation: Replicable evidence for a process of anomalous cognition</a>. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 46th Annual Convention. 6-20.</li> <li>Bem, D. J. (2005). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/djb5/PrecogAversion.pdf">Precognitive aversion</a>. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 48th Annual Convention. 31–35.</li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="References">References</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: References">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <div class="references-small" style="-moz-column-count:2; -webkit-column-count:2; column-count:2; font-size:90%;"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-newsci-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">↑ <sup><a href="#cite_ref-newsci_1-0">1.0</a></sup> <sup><a href="#cite_ref-newsci_1-1">1.1</a></sup></span> <span class="reference-text"><i>New Scientist</i>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19712-evidence-that-we-can-see-the-future-to-be-published.html">"Is this evidence that we can see the future?"</a>, Peter Aldhous, 11 November 2010.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-2">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ejwagenmakers.com/2011/WagenmakersEtAl2011_JPSP.pdf">"Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi: Comment on Bem (2011)"</a> doi:10.1037/a0022790</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-3">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.richardwiseman.com/BemReplications.shtml">Are you conducting a replication of Daryl Bem's 'Feeling the Future' experiments?</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-4">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Francis G (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www2.psych.purdue.edu/~gfrancis/Publications/GFrancis-R1.pdf">Too good to be true: Publication bias in two prominent studies from experimental psychology</a>. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 19(2): 151–156. doi:10.3758/s13423-012-0227-9.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-5">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Ritchie SJ, Wiseman R, French CC (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0033423">Failing the Future: Three Unsuccessful Attempts to Replicate Bem's 'Retroactive Facilitation of Recall' Effect</a>. <i>PLoS ONE</i> 7(3): e33423. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0033423</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-6">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://doubtfulnews.com/2012/03/bems-psychic-study-cast-into-doubt-as-it-fails-replication-attempts/">Bem's psychic study cast into doubt as it fails replication attempts</a>, <i><a href="/wiki/Doubtful_News" title="Doubtful News">Doubtful News</a></i>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-7">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Bem, D. J. (2003). Precognitive habituation: Replicable evidence for a process of anomalous cognition. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 46<sup>th</sup> Annual Convention. 6-20.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-8">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Chris French (15 March 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/mar/15/precognition-studies-curse-failed-replications">Precognition studies and the curse of the failed replications</a>. <i>The Guardian</i>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-9">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/w6x350001121h6q7/">Feeling the past: The absence of experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on text processing</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-10">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Bem D (2011). Must Psychologists Change the Way They Analyze Their Data? <i>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</i> 101(4), 716–719 doi: 10.1037/a0024777.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-11">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Bem D et al.(2014) <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://dbem.ws/FF%20Meta-analysis%206.2.pdf">Feeling the Future: A Meta-analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events.</a> Under editorial review.</span> </li> </ol></div></div>    </div></div><div class="printfooter">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&oldid=2641576">https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Feeling_the_Future&oldid=2641576</a>"</div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/wiki/Special:Categories" title="Special:Categories">Categories</a>: <ul><li><a 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