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supply chain, really?</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2024-04-01T00:00:00Z">April 1, 2024</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/michael-birshan" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Michael Birshan</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/jeongmin-seong" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Jeongmin Seong</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/olivia-white" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Olivia White</span></a></span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Reducing direct imports from a country may not reduce geopolitical risk as much as you might expect.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fstrategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%2Four%20insights%2Fhow%20shockproof%20is%20your%20supply%20chain%20really%2Fhow-shockproof-is-your-supply-chain-really.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="how-shockproof-is-your-supply-chain-really" data-layer-report-name="how-shockproof-is-your-supply-chain-really>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (3 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>While global trade has risen </strong>dramatically since the 1990s and has continued to improve the lives of millions of people, geopolitical concerns have lately been rising too. Terms such as “reshoring” and “friendshoring” have seen increased use in corporate presentations by more than 20-fold in the past few years.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="d3332ece-4264-4372-88c5-cce19e6f4b3c"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="d3332ece-4264-4372-88c5-cce19e6f4b3c" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Shekhar Aiyar et al., <em>Geoeconomic fragmentation and the future of multilateralism</em>, International Monetary Fund, January 2023. </span></span></span></a></span></p>  <p>For example, in recent years China’s share of US imported manufactured goods fell from 24 to 15 percent. The latest value-added data extends only through 2020, since it takes time for official sources to conduct and finalize their analyses. For now, the trajectory of the most recent years, as well as the <em>future</em> of value-added versus gross exports, remains unknown. Yet it’s clear that a company does not ensure that it has a geographically diverse supply chain if it merely shifts from suppliers that assemble and ship from one country to suppliers that assemble and ship from another country. In fact, even as the share of US imports of manufactured goods from China declined, the share of value added in final consumption remained steady (exhibit). Goods that had been supplied directly from China are still being largely produced in China, but they are also being rerouted through other countries that add incrementally to the final value. The result can be that a supply chain is not significantly more geopolitically diversified—and is now also longer and potentially more opaque.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> </span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/how%20shockproof%20is%20your%20supply%20chain%20really/mof85-lookingback_ex.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Although the share of US imports of manufactured goods from China declined, the share of imported value added stayed steady." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/how%20shockproof%20is%20your%20supply%20chain%20really/mof85-lookingback_ex.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>For CFOs—who in many organizations function as the de facto chief risk officer on the top team and, in every case, should be asking and encouraging hard questions—it’s essential to dig deeper: How well do we understand our own supply chain? What is our company’s exposure if different geopolitical scenarios play out? In <a href="/capabilities/operations/our-insights/how-covid-19-is-reshaping-supply-chains">one recent survey</a> of senior global supply chain executives, only about half reported that they understood the location and essential risks of their tier-one suppliers—and only 2 percent had visibility beyond the second tier. Yet <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-courage-in-an-age-of-volatility">our research</a> finds, too, that in times of uncertainty, the best leaders hone three types of competitive edge: <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-ambidextrous-leaders-manage-through-volatile-times">insights, commitment, and execution</a>. As uncertainty ramps up, CFOs will need much clearer insights across borders.</p> <p><em>For more about the reconfiguration of global trade patterns and the potential trade-offs ahead, see </em><a href="/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade">Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade</a><em>, McKinsey Global Institute, January 17, 2024.</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-xs-12 mck-c-enhanced-author"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-xs-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-xs-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h2><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-xs-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-2 mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-mt-5"><div 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really","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"d2a7db5c-fd1b-4112-89d3-722affb9c52f","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"How shockproof is your supply chain, really?"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"A new approach to supply-chain risk management"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Reducing direct imports from a country may not reduce geopolitical risk as much as you might expect."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"Reducing direct imports from a country may not reduce geopolitical risk as much as you might expect. We look at a new approach to supply-chain risk management."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-04-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[Audio 1]]\n[[downloadssidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWhile global trade has risen \u003c/strong\u003edramatically since the 1990s and has continued to improve the lives of millions of people, geopolitical concerns have lately been rising too. Terms such as \u0026ldquo;reshoring\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;friendshoring\u0026rdquo; have seen increased use in corporate presentations by more than 20-fold in the past few years.[[footnote 1]]\u003c/p\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eFor example, in recent years China\u0026rsquo;s share of US imported manufactured goods fell from 24 to 15 percent. The latest value-added data extends only through 2020, since it takes time for official sources to conduct and finalize their analyses. For now, the trajectory of the most recent years, as well as the \u003cem\u003efuture\u003c/em\u003e of value-added versus gross exports, remains unknown. Yet it\u0026rsquo;s clear that a company does not ensure that it has a geographically diverse supply chain if it merely shifts from suppliers that assemble and ship from one country to suppliers that assemble and ship from another country. In fact, even as the share of US imports of manufactured goods from China declined, the share of value added in final consumption remained steady (exhibit). Goods that had been supplied directly from China are still being largely produced in China, but they are also being rerouted through other countries that add incrementally to the final value. The result can be that a supply chain is not significantly more geopolitically diversified\u0026mdash;and is now also longer and potentially more opaque.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eFor CFOs\u0026mdash;who in many organizations function as the de facto chief risk officer on the top team and, in every case, should be asking and encouraging hard questions\u0026mdash;it\u0026rsquo;s essential to dig deeper: How well do we understand our own supply chain? What is our company\u0026rsquo;s exposure if different geopolitical scenarios play out? In \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/operations/our-insights/how-covid-19-is-reshaping-supply-chains\"\u003eone recent survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;of senior global supply chain executives, only about half reported that they understood the location and essential risks of their tier-one suppliers\u0026mdash;and only 2 percent had visibility beyond the second tier. Yet \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-courage-in-an-age-of-volatility\"\u003eour research\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;finds, too, that in times of uncertainty, the best leaders hone three types of competitive edge: \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-ambidextrous-leaders-manage-through-volatile-times\"\u003einsights, commitment, and execution\u003c/a\u003e. As uncertainty ramps up, CFOs will need much clearer insights across borders.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFor more about the reconfiguration of global trade patterns and the potential trade-offs ahead, see \u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade\"\u003eGeopolitics and the geometry of global trade\u003c/a\u003e\u003cem\u003e, McKinsey Global Institute, January 17, 2024.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF 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