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Growth industries and the next big arenas of competition | McKinsey
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FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__heading__RgATx"><div>The next big arenas of competition</div></h1></div><div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-8 FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__date__jb4gN"><div><time datetime="2024-10-23T00:00:00Z">October 23, 2024</time> | Report</div></div></div><div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__arrow__jtXdj" data-click-track="true" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="article" data-layer-text="skip article header section" data-layer-region="full hero"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xl___3BEee_8032924 mck-arrow-down-icon"></span></button></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/chris-bradley" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Chris Bradley</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/michael-chui" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Michael Chui</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Kevin Russell<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/kweilin-ellingrud" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Kweilin Ellingrud</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/michael-birshan" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Michael Birshan</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Suhayl Chettih</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Arenas are industries that transform the business landscape. Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy and generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><div class="mdc-u-align-center DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__fullreport__pTrE3"><img class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__fullreport__pTrE3 DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__fullreport--image__RcOxJ" alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/the next big arenas of competition/the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final4_thumbnail.jpeg"/></div><div><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6 DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__fullreport__pTrE3 DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__fullreport--title__dsfYc">The next big arenas of competition</h5></div><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/the next big arenas of competition/the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final" data-layer-report-name="the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (213 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2><strong>At a glance</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Arenas are a unique category of industries defined by two characteristics: high growth and dynamism.</strong> They capture an outsize share of the economy’s growth, and the market shares of players within them change to an outsize degree.</li> <li><strong>We have identified 18 potential arenas of the future that could reshape the global economy, generating $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.</strong> These arenas range from AI software and services to cybersecurity, from future air mobility to drugs for obesity and related conditions, and from robotics to nonmedical biotechnology. These future arenas could generate $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040. Their collective share of global GDP could increase from 4 percent today to 10 to 16 percent by 2040.</li> <li><strong>Twelve arenas of today showed outsize growth and dynamism from 2005 to 2020.</strong> These industries include e-commerce, biopharma, electric vehicles, consumer internet, and cloud services. They had a revenue CAGR of 10 percent and market capitalization CAGR of 16 percent, and they tripled their global GDP share from 3 to 9 percent in the period. By contrast, non-arenas had only a 4 percent revenue CAGR and a 6 percent market cap CAGR over the same period.</li> <li><strong>The many striking differences between the 12 arenas of today and non-arenas inform our understanding of the arenas of the future.</strong> Arenas earn far greater profits than other industries do, they spawn a disproportionate number of global giants, and they offer unusually strong opportunities for new entrants to become powerhouses.</li> <li><strong>Three combined ingredients in an “arena-creation potion” tend to generate the escalatory mode of competition that characterizes arenas.</strong> The telltale elements of a forming arena are business model or technological step changes, escalatory investments, and a large and/or growing addressable market. The presence of these elements can lead to escalatory competition among players, who make large investments to gain not only market share but also a product quality edge, compounding the benefits and further setting them apart from other companies in a race to the top.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Certain industries create more value</strong> and have a greater impact than others. We call these outperformers <em>arenas of competition</em>. They are defined by two characteristics: high growth and high dynamism. Due to their growth, they capture an outsize share of the economy’s overall expansion; in terms of dynamism, market share within them changes hands to an outsize degree.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_8032924" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_8032924 mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Acknowledgments</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>The research was led by Chris Bradley, McKinsey senior partner in the Sydney office and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI); Kweilin Ellingrud, an MGI director; Michael Birshan, a member of the MGI Council and a senior partner based in London; Michael Chui, a QuantumBlack senior fellow in the Bay Area office; and Kevin Russell, an MGI senior fellow based in the Charlotte office.</p> <p>We give particular thanks to McKinsey colleagues who co-authored write-ups exploring the 18 arenas of the future: for digital advertising, Craig Macdonald, a partner in London, and Lia Grigg, associate partner in Denver; for cloud services, Bhargs Srivathsan, a partner in the Bay Area; for video games, Andrew Chang, an associate partner in Tokyo; for streaming video, Clayton O’Toole, a partner in Minneapolis; for AI software and services, Ben Ellencweig, a senior partner in Stamford; for batteries, Alexandre van de Rijt, an associate partner in Stuttgart; for industrial and consumer biotechnology, Tom Brennan, a partner in Philadelphia; for e-commerce, Roberto Longo, a partner in Milan; for semiconductors, Nikolaus Lehmann, an associate partner in Munich; for cybersecurity, Jeffrey Caso, a partner in Washington, DC; for robotics and shared autonomous vehicles, Ani Kelkar, a partner in the Greater Boston office; for nuclear fission power plants, Chad Cramer, an associate partner in Columbus; for space, Andrew Sierra, an associate partner in Chicago; for drugs for obesity and related conditions, Josh Sternberg, a partner in the Greater Boston office, and Corina Curschellas, a partner in Zurich; for modular construction, Jan Mischke, a partner in Zurich, and Dave Dauphinais, an associate partner in the Greater Boston office; for future air mobility, Robin Riedel, a partner in the Bay Area office; and for electric vehicles, Moritz Rittstieg, a partner in Chicago, and Patrick Schaufuss, a partner in Munich.</p> <p>The project team was led by Alexis Yumeng Yang, Giorgi Suladze, Peter Kaufman, Sophie Chinchilla, and Suhayl Chettih. We are grateful to Max Berley, senior editor, and Benjamin Plotinsky, senior editor, who helped write and edit the report.</p> <p>The project team was supported by Alexa Wright, Anna Chopp, Aurola Qin, Chaeyoon Kim, Daniel Paletz, David Randl, Delfin Villafuerte, Edward Kalaydjian, Emily Chen, Emmanuel Daniel-Aguebor, Feyi Edun, Finn Wang, Geoffrey Gao, Grace Kamara, Jose Betancourt, Katharina Marquat, Lorenzo Flores, Nine Chantawasinkul, Onyx Bengston, Richard Yang, Robin van Aeken, Rodrigo Garcia, Shania Robinson, Shekhar Kumar, Shreyvardhan Sharma, Thiago Cersosimo, Venassa Omoruna, Will Lepry, Yixuan Chen, Yoana Sidzhimova, and Zander Cowan.</p> <p>For kindly sharing insights, we thank adviser Matthew J. Slaughter, Dean of the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.</p> <p>Many McKinsey colleagues gave us input and guidance. We want to thank: Brian Gregg, Aamer Baig, Alex Singla, Chandra Gnanasambandam, Ryan Brukardt, Jesse Klempner, Philipp Kampshoff, Martin Linder, Jakob Fleischmann, Humayun Tai, Jose Luis Blanco, Erik Sjödin, Kabir Ahuja, Marc Brodherson, Gayatri Shenai, James Kaplan, Jeremy Schneider, Arun Arora, Brooke Stokes, Timo Möller, Kersten Heineke, Patrick Schaufuss, Ting Wu, Martin Kellner, Jeffrey Algazy, Jamie Vickers, Jordan Bank, Kevin Wei Wang, Jamie Vickers, Quentin George, Chris Donahue, Will Ardron, Chhavi Adtani, Lei Xu, Hejin Kim, Jonathan Tilley, Russell Hensley, Bil Lacivita, Jochen Latz, Lars Hartenstein, Brad Herbig, Cary Mei, Erlend Spets, Erik Johnson, Veronica Retana, Ben Ellencweig, Alok Singh, Deston Barger, Nick Inchastegui, Laura Millroy, Anna Stepien, Freek Kelkensberg, Sari Varpa, and Mike Friedman.</p> <p>In MGI’s publishing team, we would like to thank Rachel Robinson, Rishabh Chaturvedi, and David Batcheck. For data visualization, we would like to thank Chuck Burke. In communications, our thanks go to Rebeca Robboy, Nienke Beuwer, Shannon Ensor, Ashley Grant, Crystal Zhu, and Cathy Gui. Thanks also go to McKinsey’s design team, especially Diane Rice, Nathan R. Wilson, Stephen Landau, Janet Michaud, and Sean M. Conrad. We are also grateful for the collaboration of McKinsey’s digital production team, including Mary Gayen, Katie Shearer, Dana Sand, Charmaine Rice, and Regina Small. </p> <p>As with all MGI research, this work is independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. While we gathered a variety of perspectives, our views have been independently formed and articulated in this report. Any errors are our own.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>This report from the McKinsey Global Institute identifies 18 future arenas that could reshape the global economy between now and 2040. To do so, we first analyze a data set of the world’s 3,000 largest companies from 2005 to 2020 and pinpoint 12 arenas of today, including biopharmaceuticals, cloud services, e-commerce, and electric vehicles (Exhibit 1). Arenas of today refers to the arenas that formed over the past two decades. We used 2005 to 2020 as our analytical interval to delineate a clean decade boundary and ensure consistent, well-established data.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><div class="flourish-chart flourish-embed" data-src="visualisation/18660867?956372"></div></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>We found striking differences between arenas and non-arenas. For example, the arenas of today generated 9 percent of our total sample’s economic profit in 2005. By 2019, they accounted for 49 percent of economic profit. These arenas are where major shifts in investment, R&D, value creation, and the rise of global corporations occur.</p> <p>We also identified an arena-creation potion by observing the evolution of our arenas of today, giving us a deeper understanding of arena emergence. The distinctive elements of a forming arena are a business model or technological step change, incentives for escalatory investments—those that improve quality and often have increasing returns to scale—and a large or growing addressable market. We discuss these elements and how they generate a particularly intense mode of competition in each of the 12 arenas of today.</p> <!-- --> <p>We use our understanding of the arenas of today as a lens for exploring 18 potential arenas of tomorrow. We describe signs that the three elements of arena creation may be emerging, marking these potential future arenas’ development. Together, these potential future arenas could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. Assuming they have profit margins after taxes that are typical of similar industries today, they could generate $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040. Their collective global GDP share could increase from 4 percent today to 10 to 16 percent by 2040.</p> <p>Understanding potential arenas is relevant for entrepreneurs and incumbent companies that want to compete directly in arenas, other companies that would be affected by the emergence of arenas, as well as investors looking to allocate capital to these industries, along with people seeking jobs in the winning industries of the coming decades, and policy makers interested in how and where these industries affect their nations. Of course, we can’t know the future, so our analysis includes a discussion of other industries that were considered for having some characteristic arena elements but ultimately were not selected because there is less certainty about high growth and dynamism.</p> <p>A compendium at the end of this report includes descriptions of the 18 potential arenas of tomorrow through the lenses of growth and dynamism. They should not be considered comprehensive accounts. Instead, they provide a rationale for the range of scenarios for growth and dynamism over the coming decades that we present in the main report and describe some swing factors that could alter the outcomes. To read about each of the 18 potential future arenas in greater depth, click on the tiles below.</p> <p>The full report can be downloaded <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/the next big arenas of competition/the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final.pdf">here</a>.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge mck-c-module-wrapper"><div class="mck-u-screen-only" id="interactive-bespoke-mgi-arenas-2024" aria-label="18 future arenas of competition" role="document"></div></div> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 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mdc-u-ts-7"><p><div><strong><strong><a href="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/the next big arenas of competition/the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final.pdf"><strong>Download </strong><strong>the </strong><strong>full report</strong></a></strong></strong></div></p></div></div></header></div></div></div></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong><a href="/our-people/chris-bradley">Chris Bradley</a></strong> is a McKinsey senior partner in the Sydney office and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). <strong><a href="/our-people/michael-chui">Michael Chui</a></strong> is a QuantumBlack senior fellow in the Bay Area office. <strong>Kevin Russell</strong> is an MGI senior fellow based in the Charlotte office. <strong><a href="/our-people/kweilin-ellingrud">Kweilin Ellingrud</a></strong> is an MGI director based in Minneapolis. <strong><a href="/our-people/michael-birshan">Michael Birshan</a></strong> is a member of the MGI Council and a senior partner based in London. <strong>Suhayl Chettih</strong> is a consultant based in New York.</p> <p>This article was edited by senior editor Max Berley with data visualizations by Chuck Burke.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div 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away revealing a green sphere underneath." class="picture-uniqueKey-theh-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey%20global%20institute/our%20research/the%20hard%20stuff%20navigating%20the%20physical%20realities%20of%20the%20energy%20transition/the-hard-stuff-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Report - <i>MGI Research</i></span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/mgi/our-research/the-hard-stuff-navigating-the-physical-realities-of-the-energy-transition" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-mckin-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="An abstract depiction of a human head constructed from slender strands of cyan light. Filigree-like light tendrils emanate from the head, culminating in radiant orange points of light." class="picture-uniqueKey-mckin-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/the%20top%20trends%20in%20tech%202024/technology-trends-outlook-2024-1463331528-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Interactive</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>McKinsey technology trends outlook 2024</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"The next big arenas of competition","displayName":"The next big arenas of competition","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"64371c23-d69a-4586-bb43-04ad77a310e2","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":2,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The next big arenas of competition"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"Growth industries and the next big arenas of competition"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Arenas are industries that transform the business landscape. Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy and generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"We look at the new high-growth industries that represent the next big arenas of competition and which have the power to transform the business landscape."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-10-23T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003ch2\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAt a glance\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eArenas are a unique category of industries defined by two characteristics: high growth and dynamism.\u003c/strong\u003e They capture an outsize share of the economy\u0026rsquo;s growth, and the market shares of players within them change to an outsize degree.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWe have identified 18 potential arenas of the future that could reshape the global economy, generating $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.\u003c/strong\u003e These arenas range from AI software and services to cybersecurity, from future air mobility to drugs for obesity and related conditions, and from robotics to nonmedical biotechnology. These future arenas could generate $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040. Their collective share of global GDP could increase from 4 percent today to 10 to 16 percent by 2040.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTwelve arenas of today showed outsize growth and dynamism from 2005 to 2020.\u003c/strong\u003e These industries include e-commerce, biopharma, electric vehicles, consumer internet, and cloud services. They had a revenue CAGR of 10 percent and market capitalization CAGR of 16 percent, and they tripled their global GDP share from 3 to 9 percent in the period. By contrast, non-arenas had only a 4 percent revenue CAGR and a 6 percent market cap CAGR over the same period.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe many striking differences between the 12 arenas of today and non-arenas inform our understanding of the arenas of the future.\u003c/strong\u003e Arenas earn far greater profits than other industries do, they spawn a disproportionate number of global giants, and they offer unusually strong opportunities for new entrants to become powerhouses.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThree combined ingredients in an \u0026ldquo;arena-creation potion\u0026rdquo; tend to generate the escalatory mode of competition that characterizes arenas.\u003c/strong\u003e The telltale elements of a forming arena are business model or technological step changes, escalatory investments, and a large and/or growing addressable market. The presence of these elements can lead to escalatory competition among players, who make large investments to gain not only market share but also a product quality edge, compounding the benefits and further setting them apart from other companies in a race to the top.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCertain industries create more value\u003c/strong\u003e and have a greater impact than others. We call these outperformers \u003cem\u003earenas of competition\u003c/em\u003e. They are defined by two characteristics: high growth and high dynamism. Due to their growth, they capture an outsize share of the economy\u0026rsquo;s overall expansion; in terms of dynamism, market share within them changes hands to an outsize degree.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eThis report from the McKinsey Global Institute identifies 18 future arenas that could reshape the global economy between now and 2040. To do so, we first analyze a data set of the world\u0026rsquo;s 3,000 largest companies from 2005 to 2020 and pinpoint 12 arenas of today, including biopharmaceuticals, cloud services, e-commerce, and electric vehicles (Exhibit 1). Arenas of today refers to the arenas that formed over the past two decades. We used 2005 to 2020 as our analytical interval to delineate a clean decade boundary and ensure consistent, well-established data.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eWe found striking differences between arenas and non-arenas. For example, the arenas of today generated 9 percent of our total sample\u0026rsquo;s economic profit in 2005. By 2019, they accounted for 49 percent of economic profit. These arenas are where major shifts in investment, R\u0026amp;D, value creation, and the rise of global corporations occur.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe also identified an arena-creation potion by observing the evolution of our arenas of today, giving us a deeper understanding of arena emergence. The distinctive elements of a forming arena are a business model or technological step change, incentives for escalatory investments\u0026mdash;those that improve quality and often have increasing returns to scale\u0026mdash;and a large or growing addressable market. We discuss these elements and how they generate a particularly intense mode of competition in each of the 12 arenas of today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[video 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eWe use our understanding of the arenas of today as a lens for exploring 18 potential arenas of tomorrow. We describe signs that the three elements of arena creation may be emerging, marking these potential future arenas\u0026rsquo; development. Together, these potential future arenas could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. Assuming they have profit margins after taxes that are typical of similar industries today, they could generate $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040. Their collective global GDP share could increase from 4 percent today to 10 to 16 percent by 2040.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding potential arenas is relevant for entrepreneurs and incumbent companies that want to compete directly in arenas, other companies that would be affected by the emergence of arenas, as well as investors looking to allocate capital to these industries, along with people seeking jobs in the winning industries of the coming decades, and policy makers interested in how and where these industries affect their nations. Of course, we can\u0026rsquo;t know the future, so our analysis includes a discussion of other industries that were considered for having some characteristic arena elements but ultimately were not selected because there is less certainty about high growth and dynamism.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA compendium at the end of this report includes descriptions of the 18 potential arenas of tomorrow through the lenses of growth and dynamism. They should not be considered comprehensive accounts. Instead, they provide a rationale for the range of scenarios for growth and dynamism over the coming decades that we present in the main report and describe some swing factors that could alter the outcomes. To read about each of the 18 potential future arenas in greater depth, click on the tiles below.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe full report can be downloaded \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/the next big arenas of competition/the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_final.pdf\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[BespokeInteractive 1]]\n[[Disruptor1UP PDF1]]"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF 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href=\"/our-people/michael-chui\"\u003eMichael Chui\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a QuantumBlack senior fellow in the Bay Area office. \u003cstrong\u003eKevin Russell\u003c/strong\u003e is an MGI senior fellow based in the Charlotte office. \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/kweilin-ellingrud\"\u003eKweilin Ellingrud\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is an MGI director based in Minneapolis. \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/michael-birshan\"\u003eMichael Birshan\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a member of the MGI Council and a senior partner based in London. \u003cstrong\u003eSuhayl Chettih\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant based in New York.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by senior editor Max Berley with data visualizations by Chuck Burke.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"8AAB71EC20FD41579E4F9561358725D9","name":"Chris 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equality, racial equity, and productivity. Serves clients across strategy and operational transformations and leads Diversity and Inclusion for McKinsey globally."},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Minneapolis","displayName":"Minneapolis"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"McKinsey Global Institute Director and Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Kweilin Ellingrud","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/kweilin ellingrud/kweilin_ellingrud_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/kweilin-ellingrud"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"D32AF5E00B32488BBB2E0F21E6F99B0E","name":"Michael Birshan","authorTitle":{"value":"Michael Birshan"},"description":{"value":"Global coleader of our Strategy \u0026 Corporate Finance Practice, partnering with bold and determined leaders to set strategy, transform organizations, and deliver sustainable value"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/michael birshan/michael birshan_8840_fc-mask_profile_1536x1152.png","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Michael_Birshan@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbirshan"},"description":{"value":"Global coleader of our Strategy \u0026 Corporate Finance Practice, partnering with bold and determined leaders to set strategy, transform organizations, and deliver sustainable value"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"London","displayName":"London"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/michael birshan/michael birshan_8840-1_fc-mask.png"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/michael-birshan"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"C765488CFC974B67BBFC761AE6B46997","name":"Suhayl Chettih","authorTitle":{"value":"Suhayl Chettih"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition"},"url":{"path":"/mgi/our-research/the-hard-stuff-navigating-the-physical-realities-of-the-energy-transition"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"The energy transition is a physical transformation in its early stages. 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co-authored write-ups exploring the 18 arenas of the future: for digital advertising, Craig Macdonald, a partner in London, and Lia Grigg, associate partner in Denver; for cloud services, Bhargs Srivathsan, a partner in the Bay Area; for video games, Andrew Chang, an associate partner in Tokyo; for streaming video, Clayton O\u0026rsquo;Toole, a partner in Minneapolis; for AI software and services, Ben Ellencweig, a senior partner in Stamford; for batteries, Alexandre van de Rijt, an associate partner in Stuttgart; for industrial and consumer biotechnology, Tom Brennan, a partner in Philadelphia; for e-commerce, Roberto Longo, a partner in Milan; for semiconductors, Nikolaus Lehmann, an associate partner in Munich; for cybersecurity, Jeffrey Caso, a partner in Washington, DC; for robotics and shared autonomous vehicles, Ani Kelkar, a partner in the Greater Boston office; for nuclear fission power plants, Chad Cramer, an associate partner in Columbus; for space, Andrew Sierra, an associate partner in Chicago; for drugs for obesity and related conditions, Josh Sternberg, a partner in the Greater Boston office, and Corina Curschellas, a partner in Zurich; for modular construction, Jan Mischke, a partner in Zurich, and Dave Dauphinais, an associate partner in the Greater Boston office; for future air mobility, Robin Riedel, a partner in the Bay Area office; and for electric vehicles, Moritz Rittstieg, a partner in Chicago, and Patrick Schaufuss, a partner in Munich.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe project team was led by Alexis Yumeng Yang, Giorgi Suladze, Peter Kaufman, Sophie Chinchilla, and Suhayl Chettih. We are grateful to Max Berley, senior editor, and Benjamin Plotinsky, senior editor, who helped write and edit the report.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe project team was supported by Alexa Wright, Anna Chopp, Aurola Qin, Chaeyoon Kim, Daniel Paletz, David Randl, Delfin Villafuerte, Edward Kalaydjian, Emily Chen, Emmanuel Daniel-Aguebor, Feyi Edun, Finn Wang, Geoffrey Gao, Grace Kamara, Jose Betancourt, Katharina Marquat, Lorenzo Flores, Nine Chantawasinkul, Onyx Bengston, Richard Yang, Robin van Aeken, Rodrigo Garcia, Shania Robinson, Shekhar Kumar, Shreyvardhan Sharma, Thiago Cersosimo, Venassa Omoruna, Will Lepry, Yixuan Chen, Yoana Sidzhimova, and Zander Cowan.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor kindly sharing insights, we thank adviser Matthew J. Slaughter, Dean of the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMany McKinsey colleagues gave us input and guidance. We want to thank: Brian Gregg, Aamer Baig, Alex Singla, Chandra Gnanasambandam, Ryan Brukardt, Jesse Klempner, Philipp Kampshoff, Martin Linder, Jakob Fleischmann, Humayun Tai, Jose Luis Blanco, Erik Sj\u0026ouml;din, Kabir Ahuja, Marc Brodherson, Gayatri Shenai, James Kaplan, Jeremy Schneider, Arun Arora, Brooke Stokes, Timo M\u0026ouml;ller, Kersten Heineke, Patrick Schaufuss, Ting Wu, Martin Kellner, Jeffrey Algazy, Jamie Vickers, Jordan Bank, Kevin Wei Wang, Jamie Vickers, Quentin George, Chris Donahue, Will Ardron, Chhavi Adtani, Lei Xu, Hejin Kim, Jonathan Tilley, Russell Hensley, Bil Lacivita, Jochen Latz, Lars Hartenstein, Brad Herbig, Cary Mei, Erlend Spets, Erik Johnson, Veronica Retana, Ben Ellencweig, Alok Singh, Deston Barger, Nick Inchastegui, Laura Millroy, Anna Stepien, Freek Kelkensberg, Sari Varpa, and Mike Friedman.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn MGI\u0026rsquo;s publishing team, we would like to thank Rachel Robinson, Rishabh Chaturvedi, and David Batcheck. For data visualization, we would like to thank Chuck Burke. In communications, our thanks go to Rebeca Robboy, Nienke Beuwer, Shannon Ensor, Ashley Grant, Crystal Zhu, and Cathy Gui. Thanks also go to McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s design team, especially Diane Rice, Nathan R. Wilson, Stephen Landau, Janet Michaud, and Sean M. Conrad. We are also grateful for the collaboration of McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s digital production team, including Mary Gayen, Katie Shearer, Dana Sand, Charmaine Rice, and Regina Small.\n\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs with all MGI research, this work is independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. While we gathered a variety of perspectives, our views have been independently formed and articulated in this report. 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