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class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Basic_estimates" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Basic_estimates"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.2</span> <span>Basic estimates</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Basic_estimates-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_atmospheric_gases" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Forcing_due_to_changes_in_atmospheric_gases"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Forcing due to changes in atmospheric gases</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_atmospheric_gases-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Forcing due to changes in atmospheric gases subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_atmospheric_gases-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Carbon_dioxide" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Carbon_dioxide"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>Carbon dioxide</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Carbon_dioxide-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Other_trace_gases" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Other_trace_gases"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.2</span> <span>Other trace gases</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Other_trace_gases-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Water_vapor" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Water_vapor"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3</span> <span>Water vapor</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Water_vapor-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_solar_irradiance" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Forcing_due_to_changes_in_solar_irradiance"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_solar_irradiance-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_solar_irradiance-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Variations_in_total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Variations_in_total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.1</span> <span>Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Variations_in_total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Sunspot_activity" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Sunspot_activity"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.2</span> <span>Sunspot activity</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Sunspot_activity-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Milankovitch_shifts" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Milankovitch_shifts"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.3</span> <span>Milankovitch shifts</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Milankovitch_shifts-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Sun_aging" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Sun_aging"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.4</span> <span>Sun aging</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Sun_aging-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)_forcing_summary" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)_forcing_summary"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.5</span> <span>Total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing summary</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)_forcing_summary-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_albedo_and_aerosols" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Forcing_due_to_changes_in_albedo_and_aerosols"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_albedo_and_aerosols-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Forcing_due_to_changes_in_albedo_and_aerosols-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Variations_in_Earth's_albedo" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Variations_in_Earth's_albedo"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.1</span> <span>Variations in Earth's albedo</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Variations_in_Earth's_albedo-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Interannual_variability" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Interannual_variability"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.2</span> <span>Interannual variability</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Interannual_variability-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Albedo_forcing_summary" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Albedo_forcing_summary"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3</span> <span>Albedo forcing summary</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Albedo_forcing_summary-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Recent_growth_trends" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Recent_growth_trends"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>Recent growth trends</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Recent_growth_trends-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">9</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">10</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" title="Table of Contents" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Radiative forcing</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 22 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-22" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">22 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%B1_%D8%A5%D8%B4%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A" title="تأثير إشعاعي – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="تأثير إشعاعي" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/For%C3%A7ament_radiatiu" title="Forçament radiatiu – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Forçament radiatiu" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radia%C4%8Dn%C3%AD_p%C5%AFsoben%C3%AD" title="Radiační působení – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Radiační působení" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Str%C3%A5lingsp%C3%A5virkning" title="Strålingspåvirkning – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Strålingspåvirkning" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strahlungsantrieb" title="Strahlungsantrieb – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Strahlungsantrieb" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forzamiento_radiativo" title="Forzamiento radiativo – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Forzamiento radiativo" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1_%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B4%DB%8C" title="اجبار تابشی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="اجبار تابشی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/For%C3%A7age_radiatif" title="Forçage radiatif – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Forçage radiatif" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-gl mw-list-item"><a href="https://gl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forzamento_radiativo" title="Forzamento radiativo – Galician" lang="gl" hreflang="gl" data-title="Forzamento radiativo" data-language-autonym="Galego" data-language-local-name="Galician" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Galego</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%B3%B5%EC%82%AC%EA%B0%95%EC%A0%9C%EB%A0%A5" title="복사강제력 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="복사강제력" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ig mw-list-item"><a href="https://ig.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mmet%E1%BB%A5ta_radiative" title="Mmetụta radiative – Igbo" lang="ig" hreflang="ig" data-title="Mmetụta radiative" data-language-autonym="Igbo" data-language-local-name="Igbo" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Igbo</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forzante_radiativo" title="Forzante radiativo – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Forzante radiativo" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ms mw-list-item"><a href="https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paksaan_sinar" title="Paksaan sinar – Malay" lang="ms" hreflang="ms" data-title="Paksaan sinar" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Melayu" data-language-local-name="Malay" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Melayu</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stralingsforcering" title="Stralingsforcering – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="Stralingsforcering" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%8A%9B" title="放射強制力 – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="放射強制力" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>日本語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-no mw-list-item"><a href="https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Str%C3%A5lingsp%C3%A5driv" title="Strålingspådriv – Norwegian Bokmål" lang="nb" hreflang="nb" data-title="Strålingspådriv" data-language-autonym="Norsk bokmål" data-language-local-name="Norwegian Bokmål" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Norsk bokmål</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wymuszanie_radiacyjne" title="Wymuszanie radiacyjne – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Wymuszanie radiacyjne" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/For%C3%A7amento_radiativo" title="Forçamento radiativo – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Forçamento radiativo" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A4teilypakote" title="Säteilypakote – Finnish" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Säteilypakote" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="Finnish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Str%C3%A5lningsdrivning" title="Strålningsdrivning – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Strålningsdrivning" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%96%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B2%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B2" title="Радіаційний вплив – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Радіаційний вплив" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%BC%BB%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E8%BF%AB" title="輻射強迫 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="輻射強迫" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>中文</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q1463606#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Namespaces"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" 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class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Concept for changes to the energy flows through a planetary atmosphere</div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Warming contributions of various GHGs, agents, factors [name the year that the contributions pertain to] [*correct reference given under the 'Talk' tab*]. Plus, the figure is inaccurate; at least wrt. to methane." src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg/300px-Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="279" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg/450px-Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg/600px-Physical_Drivers_of_climate_change.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="893" /></a><figcaption>The assessment of radiative forcing and <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a> shows which physical parameters are contributing to temperature changes.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 7">: 7 </span></sup> Parameters shown with orange bars lead to a temperature increase (due to positive radiative forcings), whereas parameters shown with blue bars lead to a temperature decrease (due to negative radiative forcing). </figcaption></figure><p><b>Radiative forcing</b> (or <b>climate forcing</b><sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>) is a concept used to quantify a change to the <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">balance of energy</a> flowing through a planetary atmosphere. Various factors contribute to this change in energy balance, such as concentrations of <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a> and <a href="/wiki/Aerosol" title="Aerosol">aerosols</a>, and changes in <a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">surface albedo</a> and <a href="/wiki/Solar_irradiance" title="Solar irradiance">solar irradiance</a>. In more technical terms, it is defined as "the change in the net, downward minus upward, <a href="/wiki/Radiative_flux" title="Radiative flux">radiative flux</a> (expressed in W/m<sup>2</sup>) due to a change in an external driver of climate change."<sup id="cite_ref-:0_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2245">: 2245 </span></sup> These external drivers are distinguished from <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">feedbacks</a> and <a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">variability</a> that are internal to the <a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">climate system</a>, and that further influence the direction and magnitude of <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_imbalance" class="mw-redirect" title="Earth's energy imbalance">imbalance</a>. Radiative forcing on Earth is meaningfully evaluated at the <a href="/wiki/Tropopause" title="Tropopause">tropopause</a> and at the top of the <a href="/wiki/Stratosphere" title="Stratosphere">stratosphere</a>. It is quantified in units of <a href="/wiki/Watt" title="Watt">watts</a> per square <a href="/wiki/Meter" class="mw-redirect" title="Meter">meter</a>, and often summarized as an average over the total surface area of the globe. </p><p>A planet in radiative equilibrium with its parent star and the rest of space can be characterized by net zero radiative forcing and by a <a href="/wiki/Planetary_equilibrium_temperature" title="Planetary equilibrium temperature">planetary equilibrium temperature</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Radiative forcing is not <i>a thing</i> in the sense that a single instrument can independently measure it. Rather it is a scientific concept and entity whose strength can be estimated from more fundamental <a href="/wiki/Outline_of_physics#General_concepts" title="Outline of physics">physics principles</a>. Scientists use measurements of changes in atmospheric parameters to calculate the radiative forcing.<sup id="cite_ref-nrcrf_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nrcrf-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 1–4">: 1–4 </span></sup> </p><p>The IPCC summarized the current <a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">scientific consensus about radiative forcing</a> changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations".<sup id="cite_ref-:1_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 11">: 11 </span></sup> </p><p>The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" title="Carbon dioxide">carbon dioxide</a>, the 50% increase (<i>C/C<sub>0</sub></i> = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +2.17 W/m<sup>2</sup>.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (<i>C/C<sub>0</sub></i> = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +3.71 W/m<sup>2</sup>. </p><p>Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time. The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Carbon dioxide has the biggest impact on total forcing, while <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a> and <a href="/wiki/Chlorofluorocarbons" class="mw-redirect" title="Chlorofluorocarbons">chlorofluorocarbons</a> (CFCs) play smaller roles as time goes on.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The five major greenhouse gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gas increases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by the 15 minor <a href="/wiki/Halogenated" class="mw-redirect" title="Halogenated">halogenated</a> gases. </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r886046785">.mw-parser-output .toclimit-2 .toclevel-1 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-3 .toclevel-2 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-4 .toclevel-3 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-5 .toclevel-4 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-6 .toclevel-5 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-7 .toclevel-6 ul{display:none}</style><div class="toclimit-3"><meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definition_and_fundamentals">Definition and fundamentals</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Definition and fundamentals"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><i>Radiative forcing</i> is defined in the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a> as follows: "The change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W/m<sup>2</sup>) due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun."<sup id="cite_ref-:0_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2245">: 2245 </span></sup> </p><p>There are some different types of radiative forcing as defined in the literature:<sup id="cite_ref-:0_3-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2245">: 2245 </span></sup> </p> <ul><li><i>Stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing: "</i>when all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium."</li> <li><i>Instantaneous radiative forcing:</i> "if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for".</li> <li><i>Effective radiative forcing</i>: "once both stratospheric and tropospheric adjustments are accounted for".</li></ul> <p>The radiation balance of the Earth (i.e. the balance between absorbed and radiated energy) determines the <a href="/wiki/Average_global_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Average global temperature">average global temperature</a>. This balance is also called <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy balance</a>. Changes to this balance occur due to factors such as the intensity of <a href="/wiki/Solar_energy" title="Solar energy">solar energy</a>, reflectivity of clouds or gases, absorption by various <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a> or surfaces and heat emission by various materials. Any such alteration is a <i>radiative forcing</i>, which along with its <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">climate feedbacks</a>, ultimately changes the balance. This happens continuously as sunlight hits the surface of Earth, clouds and aerosols form, the concentrations of atmospheric gases vary and seasons alter the <a href="/wiki/Groundcover" title="Groundcover">groundcover</a>. </p><p><i>Positive radiative forcing</i> means Earth receives more incoming energy from sunlight than it radiates to space. This net gain of energy will cause <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a>. Conversely, <i>negative radiative forcing</i> means that Earth loses more energy to space than it receives from the Sun, which produces cooling (<a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">global dimming</a>). </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="History">History</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: History"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Transport of energy and matter in the Earth-atmosphere system is governed by the principles of <a href="/wiki/Equilibrium_thermodynamics" title="Equilibrium thermodynamics">equilibrium thermodynamics</a> and more generally <a href="/wiki/Non-equilibrium_thermodynamics" title="Non-equilibrium thermodynamics">non-equilibrium thermodynamics</a>. During the first half of the 20th century, physicists developed a comprehensive description of <a href="/wiki/Radiative_transfer" title="Radiative transfer">radiative transfer</a> that they began to apply to stellar and planetary atmospheres in <a href="/wiki/Radiative_equilibrium" title="Radiative equilibrium">radiative equilibrium</a>. Studies of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) followed and matured through the 1960s and 1970s. RCE models began to account for more complex material flows within the energy balance, such as those from a water cycle, and thereby described observations better. </p><p>Another application of equilibrium models is that a <a href="/wiki/Perturbation_theory" title="Perturbation theory">perturbation</a> in the form of an <a href="/wiki/Thermodynamic_operation" title="Thermodynamic operation">externally imposed intervention</a> can estimate a change in <a href="/wiki/Thermodynamic_state" title="Thermodynamic state">state</a>. The RCE work distilled this into a <i>forcing-feedback framework</i> for change, and produced <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a> results agreeing with those from <a href="/wiki/General_circulation_model" title="General circulation model">GCMs</a>. This <a href="/wiki/Conceptual_framework" title="Conceptual framework">conceptual framework</a> asserts that a homogeneous disturbance (effectively imposed onto the top-of-atmosphere energy balance) will be met by slower responses (correlated more or less with changes in a planet's surface temperature) to bring the system to a new equilibrium state. <i>Radiative forcing</i> was a term used to describe these disturbances and gained widespread traction in the literature by the 1980s.<sup id="cite_ref-nrcrf_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nrcrf-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 19–23">: 19–23 </span></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Related_metrics">Related metrics</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Related metrics"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The concept of radiative forcing has been evolving from the initial proposal, named nowadays <i>instantaneous radiative forcing</i> (IRF), to other proposals that aim to relate better the radiative imbalance with global warming (global surface mean temperature). For example, researchers explained in 2003 how the <i>adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing</i> can be used in <a href="/wiki/General_circulation_model" title="General circulation model">general circulation models</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The adjusted radiative forcing, in its different calculation methodologies, estimates the imbalance once the stratosphere temperatures has been modified to achieve a radiative equilibrium in the stratosphere (in the sense of zero radiative heating rates). This new methodology is not estimating any <i>adjustment</i> or <i>feedback</i> that could be produced on the troposphere (in addition to stratospheric temperature adjustments), for that goal another definition, named <i>effective radiative forcing</i> has been introduced.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In general the ERF is the recommendation of the CMIP6 radiative forcing analysis <sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> although the stratospherically adjusted methodologies are still being applied in those cases where the adjustments and feedbacks on the troposphere are considered not critical, like in the well mixed greenhouse gases and ozone.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A methodology named <i>radiative kernel approach</i> allows to estimate the climate feedbacks within an offline calculation based on a linear approximation <sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Uses">Uses</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Uses"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png/300px-ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="202" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png/450px-ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png/600px-ESSD_Radiative_Forcing_1750_to_2022.png 2x" data-file-width="1350" data-file-height="908" /></a><figcaption>An assessment of effective radiative forcings in 2022 using a baseline year of 1750.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Climate_change_attribution">Climate change attribution</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Climate change attribution"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a></div> <p>Radiative forcing is used to quantify the strengths of different natural and man-made drivers of Earth's energy imbalance over time. The detailed physical mechanisms by which these drivers cause the planet to warm or cool are varied. Radiative forcing allows the contribution of any one driver to be compared against others. </p><p>Another metric called <i>effective radiative forcing</i> or ERF removes the effect of rapid adjustments (so-called "fast feedbacks") within the atmosphere that are unrelated to longer term surface temperature responses. ERF means that climate change drivers can be placed onto a more level playing field to enable comparison of their effects and a more consistent view of how <a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">global surface temperature</a> responds to various types of human forcing.<sup id="cite_ref-Nauels-2019_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Nauels-2019-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Climate_sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Climate sensitivity"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></div> <p>Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks can be used together to estimate a subsequent change in steady-state (often denoted "equilibrium") surface temperature (Δ<i>T</i><sub>s</sub>) via the equation: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta T_{s}=~{\tilde {\lambda }}~\Delta F}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>s</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">~</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>F</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta T_{s}=~{\tilde {\lambda }}~\Delta F}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/896287be61a5f59b270ac6829edf6cf5799054ae" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:13.588ex; height:3.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta T_{s}=~{\tilde {\lambda }}~\Delta F}"></span></dd></dl> <p>where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">~</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/3ccb7e04846e4c24945c2cc168f2ec6788cc3897" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.355ex; height:2.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}"></span> is commonly denoted the <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a> parameter, usually with units K/(W/m<sup>2</sup>), and Δ<i>F</i> is the radiative forcing in W/m<sup>2</sup>.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> An estimate for <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">~</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/3ccb7e04846e4c24945c2cc168f2ec6788cc3897" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.355ex; height:2.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}}"></span> is obtained from the inverse of the <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">climate feedback</a> parameter <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \lambda }"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>λ</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \lambda }</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/b43d0ea3c9c025af1be9128e62a18fa74bedda2a" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.355ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \lambda }"></span> having units (W/m<sup>2</sup>)/K. An estimated value of <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}\approx 0.8}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">~</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> <mo>≈</mo> <mn>0.8</mn> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}\approx 0.8}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/ccc999b2052efa7e238061da251350872309a183" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:7.425ex; height:2.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\tilde {\lambda }}\approx 0.8}"></span> gives an increase in global temperature of about 1.6 K above the 1750 reference temperature due to the increase in CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> over that time (278 to 405 ppm, for a forcing of 2.0 W/m<sup>2</sup>), and predicts a further warming of 1.4 K above present temperatures if the CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> mixing ratio in the atmosphere were to become double its pre-industrial value. Both of these calculations assume no other forcings.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Historically, radiative forcing displays the best predictive capacity for specific types of forcing such as greenhouse gases. It is less effective for other anthropogenic influences like <a href="/wiki/Soot" title="Soot">soot</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Nauels-2019_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Nauels-2019-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Calculations_and_measurements">Calculations and measurements</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Calculations and measurements"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Atmospheric_observation">Atmospheric observation</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Atmospheric observation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_Energy_Imbalance" class="mw-redirect" title="Earth's Energy Imbalance">Earth's Energy Imbalance</a></div> <p>Earth's global <a href="/wiki/Radiation_balance" class="mw-redirect" title="Radiation balance">radiation balance</a> fluctuates as the planet rotates and orbits the Sun, and as global-scale thermal anomalies arise and dissipate within the terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric systems (e.g. <a href="/wiki/ENSO" class="mw-redirect" title="ENSO">ENSO</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Consequently, the planet's 'instantaneous radiative forcing' (IRF) is also dynamic and naturally fluctuates between states of overall warming and cooling. The combination of <a href="/wiki/Periodic_function" title="Periodic function">periodic</a> and <a href="/wiki/Complex_system" title="Complex system">complex</a> processes that give rise to these natural variations will typically revert over periods lasting as long as a few years to produce a net-zero average IRF. Such fluctuations also mask the longer-term (decade-long) forcing trends due to human activities, and thus make direct observation of such trends challenging.<sup id="cite_ref-kramer_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kramer-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg/300px-NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg" decoding="async" width="300" height="169" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg/450px-NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg/600px-NASA_Earth_Science_Division_Operating_Missions.jpg 2x" data-file-width="1280" data-file-height="719" /></a><figcaption>NASA Earth Science Division Operating Missions<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>Earth's radiation balance has been continuously monitored by NASA's <a href="/wiki/Clouds_and_the_Earth%27s_Radiant_Energy_System" title="Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System">Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System</a> (CERES) instruments since year 1998.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Each scan of the globe provides an estimate of the total (all-sky) instantaneous radiation balance. This data record captures both the natural fluctuations and human influences on IRF; including changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land surface, etc. The record also includes the lagging radiative responses to the radiative imbalances; occurring mainly by way of Earth system feedbacks in temperature, surface albedo, atmospheric water vapor and clouds.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Researchers have used measurements from CERES, <a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_infrared_sounder" title="Atmospheric infrared sounder">AIRS</a>, <a href="/wiki/CloudSat" title="CloudSat">CloudSat</a> and other satellite-based instruments within NASA's <a href="/wiki/Earth_Observing_System" title="Earth Observing System">Earth Observing System</a> to parse out contributions by the natural fluctuations and system feedbacks. Removing these contributions within the multi-year data record allows observation of the anthropogenic trend in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) IRF. The data analysis has also been done in a way that is computationally efficient and independent of most related <a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">modelling</a> methods and results. Radiative forcing was thus directly observed to have risen by +0.53 W m<sup>−2</sup> (±0.11 W m<sup>−2</sup>) from years 2003 to 2018. About 20% of the increase was associated with a reduction in the atmospheric aerosol burden, and most of the remaining 80% was attributed to the rising burden of greenhouse gases.<sup id="cite_ref-kramer_18-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kramer-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A rising trend in the radiative imbalance due to increasing global CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> has been previously observed by ground-based instruments. For example, such measurements have been separately gathered under clear-sky conditions at two <a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_Radiation_Measurement" class="mw-redirect" title="Atmospheric Radiation Measurement">Atmospheric Radiation Measurement</a> (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Alaska.<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Each direct observation found that the associated radiative (infrared) heating experienced by surface dwellers rose by +0.2 W m<sup>−2</sup> (±0.07 W m<sup>−2</sup>) during the decade ending 2010.<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In addition to its focus on <a href="/wiki/Outgoing_longwave_radiation" title="Outgoing longwave radiation">longwave radiation</a> and the most influential forcing gas (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) only, this result is proportionally less than the TOA forcing due to its buffering by atmospheric absorption. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Basic_estimates">Basic estimates</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Basic estimates"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Radiative forcing can be evaluated for its dependence on different factors which are external to the climate system.<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Basic estimates summarized in the following sections have been derived (assembled) in accordance with <a href="/wiki/First_principles" class="mw-redirect" title="First principles">first principles</a> of the physics of matter and energy. Forcings (ΔF) are expressed as changes over the total surface of the planet and over a specified time interval. Estimates may be significant in the context of global climate forcing for times spanning decades or longer.<sup id="cite_ref-nrcrf_5-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nrcrf-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Gas forcing estimates presented in the IPCC's <a href="/wiki/AR6" class="mw-redirect" title="AR6">AR6</a> report have been adjusted to include so-called "fast" feedbacks (positive or negative) which occur via atmospheric responses (i.e. <i>effective radiative forcing</i>). </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Forcing_due_to_changes_in_atmospheric_gases">Forcing due to changes in atmospheric gases</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Forcing due to changes in atmospheric gases"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Radiative_forcing" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gas § Radiative forcing</a></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d0/1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg/220px-1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d0/1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg/330px-1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d0/1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg/440px-1750-_Radiative_forcing_-_greenhouse_gases_and_aerosols.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1000" data-file-height="750" /></a><figcaption> Hansen <i>et<span class="nowrap"> </span>al.</i> (2025) wrote that the IPCC had underestimated aerosols' cooling effect, causing it to also underestimate <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a> (Earth's responsiveness to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations).<sup id="cite_ref-Envt_Hanson_20250203_30-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Envt_Hanson_20250203-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In what Hansen called a <a href="/wiki/Deal_with_the_Devil" title="Deal with the Devil">Faustian bargain</a>, regulation of aerosols improved air quality, but aerosols' cooling effect became inadequate to temper the increasing warming effect of greenhouse gases—explaining unexpectedly large global warming in 2023-2024.<sup id="cite_ref-Envt_Hanson_20250203_30-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Envt_Hanson_20250203-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>For a well-mixed greenhouse gas, <a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_radiative_transfer_codes" title="Atmospheric radiative transfer codes">radiative transfer codes</a> that examine each <a href="/wiki/Spectral_line" title="Spectral line">spectral line</a> for atmospheric conditions can be used to calculate the forcing ΔF as a function of a change in its concentration. These calculations may be simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific to that gas. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Carbon_dioxide">Carbon dioxide</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Carbon dioxide"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png/200px-ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png" decoding="async" width="200" height="128" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png/300px-ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png/400px-ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png 2x" data-file-width="1200" data-file-height="769" /></a><figcaption>Radiative forcing for doubling CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>, as calculated by radiative transfer code Modtran. Red lines are <a href="/wiki/Planck%27s_law" title="Planck's law">Planck curves</a>.</figcaption></figure><p>A simplified first-order approximation expression for <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" title="Carbon dioxide">carbon dioxide</a> (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) is:<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta F=5.35\times \ln {(C_{0}+\Delta C) \over C_{0}}~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>F</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>5.35</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mi>ln</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>C</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <msup> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta F=5.35\times \ln {(C_{0}+\Delta C) \over C_{0}}~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e11487de2319a976f2670b4801750e3a194c559c" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.338ex; width:38.576ex; height:6.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta F=5.35\times \ln {(C_{0}+\Delta C) \over C_{0}}~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"></span>,</dd></dl> <p>where <i>C</i><sub>0</sub> is a reference concentration in parts per million (ppm) by volume and <i>ΔC</i> is the concentration change in ppm. For the purpose of some studies (e.g. climate sensitivity), <i>C</i><sub>0</sub> is taken as the concentration prior to substantial anthropogenic changes and has a value of 278 ppm as estimated for the year 1750. </p> <table class="wikitable" style="float:right style="> <caption>CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> forcing (est. 10-yr changes)<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th> </th> <th>Baseline concentration, C<sub>0</sub> </th> <th>Concentration change, ΔC </th> <th>Radiative forcing change, ΔF (W m<sup>−2</sup>) </th></tr> <tr> <th>1979–1989 </th> <td align="center">336.8 </td> <td align="center">+16.0 </td> <td align="center">+0.248 </td></tr> <tr> <th>1989–1999 </th> <td align="center">352.8 </td> <td align="center">+15.0 </td> <td align="center">+0.222 </td></tr> <tr> <th>1999–2009 </th> <td align="center">367.8 </td> <td align="center">+18.7 </td> <td align="center">+0.266 </td></tr> <tr> <th>2009–2019 </th> <td align="center">386.5 </td> <td align="center">+23.6 </td> <td align="center">+0.316 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For carbon dioxide, the 50% increase (<i>C/C<sub>0</sub></i> = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +2.17 W/m<sup>2</sup>.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (<i>C/C<sub>0</sub></i> = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +3.71 W/m<sup>2</sup>. </p><p>The relationship between CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> and radiative forcing is <a href="/wiki/Logarithmic_scale" title="Logarithmic scale">logarithmic</a> at concentrations up to around eight times the current value.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Constant concentration increases thus have a progressively smaller warming effect. However, the first-order approximation is inaccurate at higher concentrations and there is no saturation in the absorption of infrared radiation by CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>.<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Various mechanism behind the logarithmic scaling has been proposed but the spectrum distribution of the carbon dioxide seems to be essential,<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> particularly a broadening in the relevant 15-<i>μ</i>m band coming from a <a href="/wiki/Fermi_resonance#CO2" title="Fermi resonance">Fermi resonance</a> present in the molecule.<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Other_trace_gases">Other trace gases</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Other trace gases"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Somewhat different formulae apply for other trace greenhouse gases such as <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a> and <span class="chemf nowrap"><a href="/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" title="Nitrous oxide">N<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">2</sub></span></span>O</a></span> (square-root dependence) or <a href="/wiki/CFCs" class="mw-redirect" title="CFCs">CFCs</a> (linear), with coefficients that may be found for example in the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a> reports.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A year 2016 study suggests a significant revision to the methane IPCC formula.<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Forcings by the most influential trace gases in Earth's atmosphere are included in the section describing <a href="#Recent_growth_trends">recent growth trends</a>, and in the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_list_of_greenhouse_gases" class="mw-redirect" title="IPCC list of greenhouse gases">IPCC list of greenhouse gases</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Water_vapor">Water vapor</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Water vapor"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Water vapor is Earth's primary greenhouse gas currently responsible for about half of all atmospheric gas forcing. Its overall atmospheric concentration depends almost entirely on the average planetary temperature, and has the potential to increase by as much as 7% with every degree (°C) of temperature rise (see also: <a href="/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relation" title="Clausius–Clapeyron relation">Clausius–Clapeyron relation</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Thus over long time scales, water vapor behaves as a system feedback that amplifies the radiative forcing driven by the growth of carbon dioxide and other trace gases.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Forcing_due_to_changes_in_solar_irradiance">Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main articles: <a href="/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate" title="Solar activity and climate">Solar activity and climate</a> and <a href="/wiki/Solar_irradiance" title="Solar irradiance">Solar irradiance</a></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Variations_in_total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)"><span id="Variations_in_total_solar_irradiance_.28TSI.29"></span>Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The intensity of <a href="/wiki/Solar_irradiance" title="Solar irradiance">solar irradiance</a> including all wavelengths is the <a href="/wiki/Total_Solar_Irradiance" class="mw-redirect" title="Total Solar Irradiance">Total Solar Irradiance</a> (TSI) and on average is the <a href="/wiki/Solar_constant" title="Solar constant">solar constant</a>. It is equal to about 1361 W m<sup>−2</sup> at the distance of Earth's annual-mean orbital radius of one <a href="/wiki/Astronomical_unit" title="Astronomical unit">astronomical unit</a> and as measured at the top of the atmosphere.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Earth TSI varies with both solar activity and planetary orbital dynamics. Multiple satellite-based instruments including <a href="/wiki/Nimbus_7" title="Nimbus 7">ERB</a>, <a href="/wiki/ACRIMSAT" title="ACRIMSAT">ACRIM 1-3</a>, <a href="/wiki/Solar_and_Heliospheric_Observatory" title="Solar and Heliospheric Observatory">VIRGO</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Solar_Radiation_and_Climate_Experiment" title="Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment">TIM</a><sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> have continuously measured TSI with improving <a href="/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision" title="Accuracy and precision">accuracy and precision</a> since 1978.<sup id="cite_ref-kopp_46-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kopp-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Approximating Earth as a <a href="/wiki/Sphere" title="Sphere">sphere</a>, the cross-sectional area exposed to the Sun (<span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle \pi r^{2}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>π</mi> <msup> <mi>r</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle \pi r^{2}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/327b0b9304eb51864900a5d79bad82d03b95493c" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:3.435ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\textstyle \pi r^{2}}"></span>) is equal to one quarter the area of the planet's surface (<span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle 4\pi r^{2}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mn>4</mn> <mi>π</mi> <msup> <mi>r</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle 4\pi r^{2}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/899b7d255423f25a67a27fed70fc20fcf39fe4e7" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:4.597ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\textstyle 4\pi r^{2}}"></span>). The globally and annually averaged amount of solar irradiance per square meter of Earth's atmospheric surface (<span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle I_{0}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle I_{0}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/61ce7dc8933944639d64fb65b8bc802cb8781575" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:2.077ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\textstyle I_{0}}"></span>) is therefore equal to one quarter of TSI, and has a nearly constant value of <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\textstyle I_{0}=340~~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>340</mn> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <msup> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\textstyle I_{0}=340~~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/ffa844ee8b1a7964472baca57d5c1876c798cdda" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:17.063ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\textstyle I_{0}=340~~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}"></span>. </p><p>Earth follows an <a href="/wiki/Elliptical_orbit" class="mw-redirect" title="Elliptical orbit">elliptical orbit</a> around the Sun, so that the TSI received at any instant fluctuates between about 1321 W m<sup>−2</sup> (at <a href="/wiki/Aphelion" class="mw-redirect" title="Aphelion">aphelion</a> in early July) and 1412 W m<sup>−2</sup> (at perihelion in early January), and thus by about ±3.4% over each year.<sup id="cite_ref-apperi_47-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-apperi-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This change in irradiance has minor influences on Earth's seasonal weather patterns and its <a href="/wiki/Climate_zone" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate zone">climate zones</a>, which primarily result from the annual cycling in Earth's relative tilt direction.<sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Such repeating cycles contribute a net-zero forcing (by definition) in the context of decades-long climate changes. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Sunspot_activity">Sunspot activity</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Sunspot activity"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Solar_cycle" title="Solar cycle">Solar cycle</a></div> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Line graph showing historical sunspot number count, Maunder and Dalton minima, and the Modern Maximum" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/350px-Sunspot_Numbers.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="147" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/525px-Sunspot_Numbers.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/700px-Sunspot_Numbers.png 2x" data-file-width="1813" data-file-height="762" /></a><figcaption>400 year sunspot history, including the <a href="/wiki/Maunder_Minimum" title="Maunder Minimum">Maunder Minimum</a></figcaption></figure> <p>Average annual TSI varies between about 1360 W m<sup>−2</sup> and 1362 W m<sup>−2</sup> (±0.05%) over the course of a typical 11-year <a href="/wiki/Sunspot_cycle" class="mw-redirect" title="Sunspot cycle">sunspot activity cycle</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-lean_49-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-lean-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Sunspot observations have been recorded since about year 1600 and show evidence of lengthier oscillations (Gleissberg cycle, Devries/Seuss cycle, etc.) which modulate the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycle). Despite such complex behavior, the amplitude of the 11-year cycle has been the most prominent variation throughout this long-term observation record.<sup id="cite_ref-50" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>TSI variations associated with sunspots contribute a small but non-zero net forcing in the context of decadal climate changes.<sup id="cite_ref-kopp_46-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kopp-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Some research suggests they may have partly influenced climate shifts during the <a href="/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" title="Little Ice Age">Little Ice Age</a>, along with concurrent changes in volcanic activity and deforestation.<sup id="cite_ref-51" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Since the late 20th century, average TSI has trended slightly lower along with a downward trend in <a href="/wiki/Sunspot" title="Sunspot">sunspot</a> activity.<sup id="cite_ref-jones_52-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jones-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Milankovitch_shifts">Milankovitch shifts</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Milankovitch shifts"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main articles: <a href="/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles" title="Milankovitch cycles">Milankovitch cycles</a>, <a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Ice_age" title="Ice age">Ice age</a></div> <p>Climate forcing caused by variations in solar irradiance have occurred during Milankovitch cycles, which span periods of about 40,000 to 100,000 years. Milankovitch cycles consist of long-duration cycles in Earth's orbital eccentricity (or <a href="/wiki/Ellipticity" class="mw-redirect" title="Ellipticity">ellipticity</a>), cycles in its orbital obliquity (or <a href="/wiki/Axial_tilt" title="Axial tilt">axial tilt</a>), and <a href="/wiki/Precession" title="Precession">precession</a> of its relative tilt direction.<sup id="cite_ref-buis_53-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-buis-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Among these, the 100,000 year cycle in eccentricity causes TSI to fluctuate by about ±0.2%.<sup id="cite_ref-loutre_54-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-loutre-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Currently, Earth's eccentricity is nearing its least elliptic (most circular) causing average annual TSI to very slowly decrease.<sup id="cite_ref-buis_53-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-buis-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Simulations also indicate that Earth's orbital dynamics will <a href="/wiki/Stability_of_the_solar_system" class="mw-redirect" title="Stability of the solar system">remain stable</a> including these variations for least the next 10 million years.<sup id="cite_ref-55" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Sun_aging">Sun aging</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: Sun aging"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main articles: <a href="/wiki/Formation_and_evolution_of_the_Solar_System" title="Formation and evolution of the Solar System">Formation and evolution of the Solar System</a> and <a href="/wiki/Sun" title="Sun">Sun</a></div> <p>The Sun has consumed about half its hydrogen fuel since forming approximately 4.5 billion years ago.<sup id="cite_ref-sunage_56-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-sunage-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> TSI will continue to slowly increase during the aging process at a rate of about 1% each 100 million years. Such rate of change is far too small to be detectable within measurements and is insignificant on human timescales. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)_forcing_summary"><span id="Total_solar_irradiance_.28TSI.29_forcing_summary"></span>Total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing summary</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing summary"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <table class="wikitable" style="float:right style="> <caption>TSI forcing (est. 10-yr change) </caption> <tbody><tr> <th> </th> <th>Δ<i>τ</i> </th> <th>Radiative forcing change Δ<i>F</i> (W m<sup>−2</sup>) </th></tr> <tr> <th>Annual cycle </th> <td align="center">±0.034 <sup id="cite_ref-apperi_47-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-apperi-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center">0 (net) </td></tr> <tr> <th>Sunspot activity </th> <td align="center">±5<span style="margin:0 .15em 0 .25em">×</span>10<sup><span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="2999600000000000000♠"></span>−4</span></sup> <sup id="cite_ref-lean_49-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-lean-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center">±0.1 <sup id="cite_ref-jones_52-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jones-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-57" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <th>Orbital shift </th> <td align="center"><span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="3006600000000000000♠"></span>−4<span style="margin-left:0.25em;margin-right:0.15em;">×</span>10<sup>−7</sup></span> <sup id="cite_ref-loutre_54-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-loutre-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center"><span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="3003900000000000000♠"></span>−1<span style="margin-left:0.25em;margin-right:0.15em;">×</span>10<sup>−4</sup></span> </td></tr> <tr> <th>Sun aging </th> <td align="center">+1<span style="margin:0 .15em 0 .25em">×</span>10<sup><span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="2999100000000000000♠"></span>−9</span></sup> <sup id="cite_ref-sunage_56-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-sunage-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center">+2<span style="margin:0 .15em 0 .25em">×</span>10<sup><span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="2999300000000000000♠"></span>−7</span></sup> </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The maximum fractional variations (Δτ) in Earth's solar irradiance during the last decade are summarized in the accompanying table. Each variation previously discussed contributes a forcing of: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta F=~I_{0}\times (1-R)\times \Delta \tau ~~=~238\times \Delta \tau ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>F</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>×</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>−</mo> <mi>R</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>×</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>τ</mi> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <mn>238</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>τ</mi> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <msup> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta F=~I_{0}\times (1-R)\times \Delta \tau ~~=~238\times \Delta \tau ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/9baeec2aa6b15f2beb3157d02b0c5c0d3d65d7b9" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:50.73ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta F=~I_{0}\times (1-R)\times \Delta \tau ~~=~238\times \Delta \tau ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"></span>,</dd></dl> <p>where R=0.30 is Earth's reflectivity. The radiative and climate forcings arising from changes in the Sun's insolation are expected to continue to be minor, notwithstanding some as-of-yet undiscovered <a href="/wiki/Solar_physics" title="Solar physics">solar physics</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-jones_52-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jones-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-58" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Forcing_due_to_changes_in_albedo_and_aerosols">Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1251242444">.mw-parser-output .ambox{border:1px solid #a2a9b1;border-left:10px solid #36c;background-color:#fbfbfb;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+link+.ambox{margin-top:-1px}html body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .ambox.mbox-small-left{margin:4px 1em 4px 0;overflow:hidden;width:238px;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em}.mw-parser-output .ambox-speedy{border-left:10px solid #b32424;background-color:#fee7e6}.mw-parser-output .ambox-delete{border-left:10px solid #b32424}.mw-parser-output .ambox-content{border-left:10px solid #f28500}.mw-parser-output .ambox-style{border-left:10px solid #fc3}.mw-parser-output .ambox-move{border-left:10px solid #9932cc}.mw-parser-output .ambox-protection{border-left:10px solid #a2a9b1}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-text{border:none;padding:0.25em 0.5em;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image{border:none;padding:2px 0 2px 0.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-imageright{border:none;padding:2px 0.5em 2px 0;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-empty-cell{border:none;padding:0;width:1px}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image-div{width:52px}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .ambox{margin:0 10%}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .ambox{display:none!important}}</style><table class="box-Update plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content ambox-Update" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div class="mbox-image-div"><span typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg/42px-Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg.png" decoding="async" width="42" height="34" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg/63px-Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg/84px-Ambox_current_red_Americas.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="360" data-file-height="290" /></span></span></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This article needs to be <b>updated</b>.<span class="hide-when-compact"> Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.</span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">April 2024</span>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a>, <a href="/wiki/Cloud_albedo" title="Cloud albedo">Cloud albedo</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Particulates#Climate_effects" title="Particulates">Particulates § Climate effects</a></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Variations_in_Earth's_albedo"><span id="Variations_in_Earth.27s_albedo"></span>Variations in Earth's albedo</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Variations in Earth's albedo"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>A fraction of incident solar radiation is reflected by clouds and aerosols, oceans and landforms, snow and ice, vegetation, and other natural and man-made surface features. The reflected fraction is known as Earth's <a href="/wiki/Bond_albedo" title="Bond albedo">bond albedo</a> (R), is evaluated at the top of the atmosphere, and has an average annual global value of about 0.30 (30%). The overall fraction of solar power absorbed by Earth is then (1−R) or 0.70 (70%).<sup id="cite_ref-59" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Atmospheric components contribute about three-quarters of Earth albedo, and clouds alone are responsible for half. The major roles of clouds and water vapor are linked with the majority presence of liquid water covering <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_crust" title="Earth's crust">the planet's crust</a>. Global patterns in cloud formation and circulation are highly complex, with couplings to ocean heat flows, and with <a href="/wiki/Jet_stream" title="Jet stream">jet streams</a> assisting their rapid transport. Moreover, the albedos of Earth's northern and southern hemispheres have been observed to be essentially equal (within 0.2%). This is noteworthy since more than two-thirds of land and 85% of the human population are in the north.<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Multiple satellite-based instruments including <a href="/wiki/Moderate_Resolution_Imaging_Spectroradiometer" title="Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer">MODIS</a>, <a href="/wiki/Visible_Infrared_Imaging_Radiometer_Suite" title="Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite">VIIRs</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Clouds_and_the_Earth%27s_Radiant_Energy_System" title="Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System">CERES</a> have continuously monitored Earth's albedo since 1998.<sup id="cite_ref-nalb_61-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nalb-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Landsat_program" title="Landsat program">Landsat</a> imagery, available since 1972, has also been used in some studies.<sup id="cite_ref-62" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Measurement accuracy has improved and results have converged in recent years, enabling more confident assessment of the recent decadal forcing influence of planetary albedo.<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Nevertheless, the existing data record is still too short to support longer-term predictions or to address other related questions. </p><p>Seasonal variations in planetary albedo can be understood as a set of system feedbacks that occur largely in response to the yearly cycling of Earth's relative tilt direction. Along with the atmospheric responses, most apparent to surface dwellers are the changes in vegetation, snow, and sea-ice coverage. Intra-annual variations of about ±0.02 (± 7%) around Earth's mean albedo have been observed throughout the course of a year, with maxima occurring twice per year near the time of each solar equinox.<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This repeating cycle contributes net-zero forcing in the context of decades-long climate changes. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Interannual_variability">Interannual variability</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: Interannual variability"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png/350px-CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="71" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png/525px-CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png/700px-CERES_Global_albedo_anomaly.png 2x" data-file-width="720" data-file-height="146" /></a><figcaption>Measured global albedo anomaly from CERES (2000-2011).</figcaption></figure> <p>Regional albedos change from year to year due to shifts arising from natural processes, human actions, and system feedbacks. For example, human acts of <a href="/wiki/Deforestion" class="mw-redirect" title="Deforestion">deforestion</a> typically raise Earth's reflectivity while introducing <a href="/wiki/Water_storage" title="Water storage">water storage</a> and <a href="/wiki/Irrigation" title="Irrigation">irrigation</a> to arid lands may lower it. Likewise considering feedbacks, <a href="/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback" title="Ice–albedo feedback">ice loss</a> in arctic regions decreases albedo while expanding <a href="/wiki/Desertification" title="Desertification">desertification</a> at low to middle latitudes increases it. </p><p>During years 2000-2012, no overall trend in Earth's albedo was discernible within the 0.1% standard deviation of values measured by CERES.<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Along with the hemispherical equivalence, some researchers interpret the remarkably small interannual differences as evidence that planetary albedo may currently be constrained by the action of complex system feedbacks. Nevertheless, historical evidence also suggests that infrequent events such as major <a href="/wiki/Volcanic_winter" title="Volcanic winter">volcanic eruptions</a> can significantly perturb the planetary albedo for several years or longer.<sup id="cite_ref-63" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Albedo_forcing_summary">Albedo forcing summary</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: Albedo forcing summary"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <table class="wikitable" style="float:right style="> <caption>Albedo forcing (est. 10-yr change) </caption> <tbody><tr> <th> </th> <th>Fractional variations (Δ<i>α</i>) in Earth's albedo </th> <th>Radiative forcing change Δ<i>F</i> (W m<sup>−2</sup>) </th></tr> <tr> <th>Annual cycle </th> <td align="center">± 0.07<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center">0 (net) </td></tr> <tr> <th>Interannual variation </th> <td align="center">± 0.001<sup id="cite_ref-stephens_60-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stephens-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td align="center">∓ 0.1 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The measured fractional variations (Δ<i>α</i>) in Earth's albedo during the first decade of the 21st century are summarized in the accompanying table. Similar to TSI, the radiative forcing due to a fractional change in planetary albedo (Δ<i>α</i>) is: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta F=~-I_{0}\times R\times \Delta \alpha ~~=~-102\times \Delta \alpha ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>F</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <mo>−</mo> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>×</mo> <mi>R</mi> <mo>×</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>α</mi> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <mo>−</mo> <mn>102</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mi>α</mi> <mtext> </mtext> <mtext> </mtext> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <msup> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta F=~-I_{0}\times R\times \Delta \alpha ~~=~-102\times \Delta \alpha ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/0a9a714b870ed35c405ee81151424e66e1a50dc3" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:51.17ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta F=~-I_{0}\times R\times \Delta \alpha ~~=~-102\times \Delta \alpha ~~(\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2})\,}"></span>.</dd></dl> <p>Satellite observations show that various Earth system feedbacks have stabilized planetary albedo despite recent natural and human-caused shifts.<sup id="cite_ref-nalb_61-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nalb-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> On longer timescales, it is more uncertain whether the net forcing which results from such external changes will remain minor. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Recent_growth_trends">Recent growth trends</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=24" title="Edit section: Recent growth trends"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1273380762/mw-parser-output/.tmulti">.mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner{display:flex;flex-direction:column}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{display:flex;flex-direction:row;clear:left;flex-wrap:wrap;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{margin:1px;float:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .theader{clear:both;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;align-self:center;background-color:transparent;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbcaption{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-left{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-right{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-center{text-align:center}@media all and (max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbinner{width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:none!important;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{justify-content:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{float:none!important;max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle .thumbcaption{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow>.thumbcaption{text-align:center}}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner span:not(.skin-invert-image):not(.skin-invert):not(.bg-transparent) img{background-color:white}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner span:not(.skin-invert-image):not(.skin-invert):not(.bg-transparent) img{background-color:white}}</style><div class="thumb tmulti tnone center"><div class="thumbinner multiimageinner" style="width:642px;max-width:642px"><div class="trow"><div class="tsingle" style="width:224px;max-width:224px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:151px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c4/1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg/222px-1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg.png" decoding="async" width="222" height="151" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c4/1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg/333px-1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c4/1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg/444px-1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1100" data-file-height="750" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">Radiative forcing (warming influence) of long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases has nearly doubled since 1979.<sup id="cite_ref-NOAA_AGGI_2023_64-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NOAA_AGGI_2023-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></ref></div></div><div class="tsingle" style="width:208px;max-width:208px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:151px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png/206px-Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png" decoding="async" width="206" height="152" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png/309px-Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png/412px-Global_climate_forcing_of_the_industrial_era.png 2x" data-file-width="867" data-file-height="639" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">The industrial era growth in CO2-equivalent gas concentration and AGGI since year 1750.<sup id="cite_ref-65" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div><div class="tsingle" style="width:204px;max-width:204px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:151px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg/202px-Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg.png" decoding="async" width="202" height="152" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg/303px-Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg/404px-Greenhouse_gas_radiative_forcing_growth_since_1979.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="992" data-file-height="744" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">The annual growth in overall gas forcing has held steady near 2% since 1979.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div></div></div></div> <p>The IPCC summarized the current <a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">scientific consensus about radiative forcing</a> changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 [1.96 to 3.48] W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations".<sup id="cite_ref-:1_1-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 11">: 11 </span></sup> </p><p>Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time. </p><p>The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The table includes the direct forcing contributions from <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" title="Carbon dioxide">carbon dioxide</a> (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>), <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a> (<span class="chemf nowrap">CH<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">4</sub></span></span></span>), <a href="/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" title="Nitrous oxide">nitrous oxide</a> (<span class="chemf nowrap">N<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">2</sub></span></span>O</span>); <a href="/wiki/Chlorofluorocarbon" title="Chlorofluorocarbon">chlorofluorocarbons</a> (CFCs) <a href="/wiki/CFC-12" class="mw-redirect" title="CFC-12">12</a> and <a href="/wiki/CFC-11" class="mw-redirect" title="CFC-11">11</a>;<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability"><span title="The table does not appear to give values for CFC-12 and CFC-11, specifically, only for CFCs as a whole. This may be because the information in the source changed since this paragraph was added in 2013. (March 2023)">failed verification</span></a></i>]</sup> and fifteen other <a href="/wiki/Halogen" title="Halogen">halogenated</a> gases.<sup id="cite_ref-66" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These data do not include the significant forcing contributions from shorter-lived and less-well-mixed gases or aerosols; including those indirect forcings from the decay of methane and some halogens. They also do not account for changes in land use or solar activity. </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1256386598">.mw-parser-output .cot-header-mainspace{background:#F0F2F5;color:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cot-header-other{background:#CCFFCC;color:inherit}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cot-header-mainspace{background:#14181F;color:inherit}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cot-header-other{background:#003500;color:inherit}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cot-header-mainspace{background:#14181F;color:inherit}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cot-header-other{background:#003500;color:inherit}}</style> <div style="margin-left:0"> <table class="mw-collapsible mw-archivedtalk mw-collapsed" style="color:inherit; background: transparent; text-align: left; border: 1px solid Silver; margin: 0.2em auto auto; width:100%; clear: both; padding: 1px;"> <tbody><tr> <th class="cot-header-mainspace" style="; font-size:87%; padding:0.2em 0.3em; text-align:center;"><div style="font-size:115%;margin:0 4em">Click at right to show/hide table</div> </th></tr> <tr> <td style="color:inherit; border: solid 1px Silver; padding: 0.6em; background: var(--background-color-base, #fff);"> <p><br /> </p> <table class="wikitable" style="text-align:right; font-size:0.8em; width:650px"> <caption>Global radiative forcing (relative to 1750, in <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle ~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext> </mtext> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> </mrow> <mtext> </mtext> <msup> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle ~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/bb6912e59e6229008f6acf374e5bcbe0eeefc7c9" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:7.819ex; height:2.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle ~\mathrm {W} ~\mathrm {m} ^{-2}}"></span>), <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_equivalent" class="mw-redirect" title="Carbon dioxide equivalent">CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>-equivalent</a> mixing ratio, and the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) since 1979<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Year</th> <th>CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub></th> <th><span class="chemf nowrap">CH<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">4</sub></span></span></span></th> <th><span class="chemf nowrap">N<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">2</sub></span></span>O</span></th> <th>CFCs</th> <th>HCFCs</th> <th>HFCs</th> <th>Total</th> <th>CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>-eq<br /><a href="/wiki/Parts-per_notation" title="Parts-per notation">ppm</a></th> <th>AGGI<br />1990 = 1</th> <th>AGGI<br />% change </th></tr> <tr> <td>1979</td> <td>1.025</td> <td>0.500</td> <td>0.088</td> <td>0.175</td> <td>0.008</td> <td>0.001</td> <td>1.798</td> <td>388</td> <td>0.787</td> <td> </td></tr> <tr> <td>1980</td> <td>1.058</td> <td>0.509</td> <td>0.088</td> <td>0.185</td> <td>0.009</td> <td>0.001</td> <td>1.850</td> <td>392</td> <td>0.810</td> <td>2.3 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1981</td> <td>1.076</td> <td>0.517</td> <td>0.091</td> <td>0.195</td> <td>0.010</td> <td>0.001</td> <td>1.890</td> <td>395</td> <td>0.827</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1982</td> <td>1.088</td> <td>0.525</td> <td>0.095</td> <td>0.205</td> <td>0.011</td> <td>0.001</td> <td>1.924</td> <td>397</td> <td>0.842</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1983</td> <td>1.114</td> <td>0.528</td> <td>0.097</td> <td>0.215</td> <td>0.012</td> <td>0.001</td> <td>1.967</td> <td>400</td> <td>0.861</td> <td>1.9 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1984</td> <td>1.138</td> <td>0.532</td> <td>0.100</td> <td>0.225</td> <td>0.013</td> <td>0.002</td> <td>2.009</td> <td>403</td> <td>0.879</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1985</td> <td>1.161</td> <td>0.538</td> <td>0.101</td> <td>0.236</td> <td>0.014</td> <td>0.002</td> <td>2.051</td> <td>407</td> <td>0.898</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1986</td> <td>1.182</td> <td>0.544</td> <td>0.105</td> <td>0.247</td> <td>0.015</td> <td>0.002</td> <td>2.095</td> <td>410</td> <td>0.917</td> <td>1.9 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1987</td> <td>1.208</td> <td>0.550</td> <td>0.104</td> <td>0.260</td> <td>0.016</td> <td>0.002</td> <td>2.140</td> <td>413</td> <td>0.937</td> <td>2.0 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1988</td> <td>1.247</td> <td>0.555</td> <td>0.106</td> <td>0.275</td> <td>0.017</td> <td>0.002</td> <td>2.201</td> <td>418</td> <td>0.963</td> <td>2.7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1989</td> <td>1.271</td> <td>0.560</td> <td>0.110</td> <td>0.287</td> <td>0.018</td> <td>0.003</td> <td>2.248</td> <td>422</td> <td>0.984</td> <td>2.0 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1990</td> <td>1.290</td> <td>0.564</td> <td>0.112</td> <td>0.296</td> <td>0.020</td> <td>0.003</td> <td>2.285</td> <td>425</td> <td>1.000</td> <td>1.6 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1991</td> <td>1.310</td> <td>0.569</td> <td>0.114</td> <td>0.304</td> <td>0.021</td> <td>0.003</td> <td>2.321</td> <td>428</td> <td>1.016</td> <td>1.6 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1992</td> <td>1.321</td> <td>0.574</td> <td>0.116</td> <td>0.311</td> <td>0.022</td> <td>0.003</td> <td>2.348</td> <td>430</td> <td>1.027</td> <td>1.2 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1993</td> <td>1.332</td> <td>0.574</td> <td>0.117</td> <td>0.314</td> <td>0.024</td> <td>0.004</td> <td>2.364</td> <td>431</td> <td>1.034</td> <td>0.7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1994</td> <td>1.354</td> <td>0.577</td> <td>0.119</td> <td>0.315</td> <td>0.025</td> <td>0.004</td> <td>2.394</td> <td>434</td> <td>1.048</td> <td>1.3 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1995</td> <td>1.381</td> <td>0.580</td> <td>0.119</td> <td>0.317</td> <td>0.027</td> <td>0.005</td> <td>2.428</td> <td>436</td> <td>1.063</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1996</td> <td>1.408</td> <td>0.581</td> <td>0.122</td> <td>0.317</td> <td>0.028</td> <td>0.005</td> <td>2.461</td> <td>439</td> <td>1.077</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1997</td> <td>1.424</td> <td>0.582</td> <td>0.125</td> <td>0.317</td> <td>0.030</td> <td>0.006</td> <td>2.484</td> <td>441</td> <td>1.087</td> <td>1.0 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1998</td> <td>1.462</td> <td>0.587</td> <td>0.127</td> <td>0.317</td> <td>0.031</td> <td>0.007</td> <td>2.531</td> <td>445</td> <td>1.108</td> <td>2.1 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1999</td> <td>1.493</td> <td>0.590</td> <td>0.129</td> <td>0.317</td> <td>0.033</td> <td>0.008</td> <td>2.570</td> <td>448</td> <td>1.125</td> <td>1.7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2000</td> <td>1.511</td> <td>0.591</td> <td>0.133</td> <td>0.316</td> <td>0.035</td> <td>0.008</td> <td>2.593</td> <td>450</td> <td>1.135</td> <td>1.0 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2001</td> <td>1.533</td> <td>0.590</td> <td>0.135</td> <td>0.315</td> <td>0.036</td> <td>0.010</td> <td>2.619</td> <td>452</td> <td>1.146</td> <td>1.1 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2002</td> <td>1.562</td> <td>0.590</td> <td>0.137</td> <td>0.314</td> <td>0.038</td> <td>0.011</td> <td>2.652</td> <td>455</td> <td>1.161</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2003</td> <td>1.599</td> <td>0.592</td> <td>0.139</td> <td>0.312</td> <td>0.039</td> <td>0.012</td> <td>2.694</td> <td>459</td> <td>1.179</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2004</td> <td>1.625</td> <td>0.592</td> <td>0.141</td> <td>0.311</td> <td>0.040</td> <td>0.013</td> <td>2.723</td> <td>461</td> <td>1.192</td> <td>1.3 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2005</td> <td>1.654</td> <td>0.591</td> <td>0.143</td> <td>0.309</td> <td>0.042</td> <td>0.015</td> <td>2.753</td> <td>464</td> <td>1.205</td> <td>1.3 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2006</td> <td>1.684</td> <td>0.591</td> <td>0.146</td> <td>0.308</td> <td>0.043</td> <td>0.016</td> <td>2.789</td> <td>467</td> <td>1.220</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2007</td> <td>1.709</td> <td>0.594</td> <td>0.148</td> <td>0.306</td> <td>0.045</td> <td>0.018</td> <td>2.820</td> <td>469</td> <td>1.234</td> <td>1.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2008</td> <td>1.739</td> <td>0.597</td> <td>0.151</td> <td>0.304</td> <td>0.048</td> <td>0.019</td> <td>2.857</td> <td>473</td> <td>1.250</td> <td>1.6 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2009</td> <td>1.759</td> <td>0.599</td> <td>0.153</td> <td>0.302</td> <td>0.049</td> <td>0.021</td> <td>2.884</td> <td>475</td> <td>1.262</td> <td>1.2 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2010</td> <td>1.791</td> <td>0.602</td> <td>0.156</td> <td>0.299</td> <td>0.051</td> <td>0.023</td> <td>2.921</td> <td>478</td> <td>1.278</td> <td>1.6 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>1.816</td> <td>0.604</td> <td>0.159</td> <td>0.297</td> <td>0.053</td> <td>0.024</td> <td>2.954</td> <td>481</td> <td>1.293</td> <td>1.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2012</td> <td>1.845</td> <td>0.606</td> <td>0.161</td> <td>0.295</td> <td>0.054</td> <td>0.026</td> <td>2.987</td> <td>484</td> <td>1.307</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2013</td> <td>1.882</td> <td>0.608</td> <td>0.164</td> <td>0.293</td> <td>0.056</td> <td>0.028</td> <td>3.031</td> <td>488</td> <td>1.326</td> <td>1.9 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2014</td> <td>1.908</td> <td>0.612</td> <td>0.168</td> <td>0.291</td> <td>0.057</td> <td>0.030</td> <td>3.066</td> <td>492</td> <td>1.342</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2015</td> <td>1.939</td> <td>0.617</td> <td>0.171</td> <td>0.289</td> <td>0.058</td> <td>0.032</td> <td>3.107</td> <td>495</td> <td>1.359</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2016</td> <td>1.986</td> <td>0.621</td> <td>0.173</td> <td>0.288</td> <td>0.059</td> <td>0.034</td> <td>3.161</td> <td>500</td> <td>1.383</td> <td>2.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2017</td> <td>2.014</td> <td>0.624</td> <td>0.175</td> <td>0.286</td> <td>0.060</td> <td>0.037</td> <td>3.195</td> <td>504</td> <td>1.398</td> <td>1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2018</td> <td>2.046</td> <td>0.627</td> <td>0.179</td> <td>0.284</td> <td>0.060</td> <td>0.039</td> <td>3.235</td> <td>507</td> <td>1.416</td> <td>1.7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2019</td> <td>2.079</td> <td>0.631</td> <td>0.182</td> <td>0.282</td> <td>0.061</td> <td>0.041</td> <td>3.275</td> <td>511</td> <td>1.433</td> <td>1.7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2020</td> <td>2.110</td> <td>0.636</td> <td>0.185</td> <td>0.279</td> <td>0.061</td> <td>0.044</td> <td>3.316</td> <td>515</td> <td>1.451</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2021</td> <td>2.140</td> <td>0.643</td> <td>0.189</td> <td>0.276</td> <td>0.061</td> <td>0.046</td> <td>3.356</td> <td>519</td> <td>1.469</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>2022</td> <td>2.170</td> <td>0.650</td> <td>0.193</td> <td>0.274</td> <td>0.061</td> <td>0.049</td> <td>3.398</td> <td>523</td> <td>1.487</td> <td>1.8 </td></tr></tbody></table> </td></tr></tbody></table></div> <p>These data show that CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> dominates the total forcing, with <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a> and <a href="/wiki/Chlorofluorocarbons" class="mw-redirect" title="Chlorofluorocarbons">chlorofluorocarbons</a> (CFC) becoming relatively smaller contributors to the total forcing over time.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The five major greenhouse gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gas increases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by the 15 minor <a href="/wiki/Halogenated" class="mw-redirect" title="Halogenated">halogenated</a> gases. </p><p>It might be observed that the total forcing for year 2016, 3.027 W m<sup>−2</sup>, together with the commonly accepted value of climate sensitivity parameter λ, 0.8 K /(W m<sup>−2</sup>), results in an increase in global temperature of 2.4 K, much greater than the observed increase, about 1.2 K.<sup id="cite_ref-67" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-67"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>67<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability"><span title="The value (3.027) is different from that given in the table above, and the source doesn't seem to mention it, or the conclusion drawn here. (November 2023)">failed verification</span></a></i>]</sup> Part of this difference is due to lag in the global temperature achieving steady state with the forcing. The remainder of the difference is due to negative aerosol forcing (compare <a href="/wiki/Particulates#Climate_effects" title="Particulates">climate effects of particulates</a>), climate sensitivity being less than the commonly accepted value, or some combination thereof.<sup id="cite_ref-68" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-68"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>68<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The table also includes an "Annual Greenhouse Gas Index" (AGGI), which is defined as the ratio of the total direct radiative forcing due to long-lived greenhouse gases for any year for which adequate global measurements exist to that which was present in 1990.<sup id="cite_ref-noaa_aggi_6-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-noaa_aggi-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 1990 was chosen because it is the baseline year for the <a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a>. This index is a measure of the inter-annual changes in conditions that affect <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">carbon dioxide emission</a> and uptake, methane and nitrous oxide sources and sinks, the decline in the atmospheric abundance of <a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">ozone-depleting</a> chemicals related to the <a href="/wiki/Montreal_Protocol" title="Montreal Protocol">Montreal Protocol</a>. and the increase in their substitutes (hydrogenated CFCs (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). Most of this increase is related to CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>. For 2013, the AGGI was 1.34 (representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 34% since 1990). The increase in CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> forcing alone since 1990 was about 46%. The decline in CFCs considerably tempered the increase in net radiative forcing. </p><p>An alternative table prepared for use in climate model intercomparisons conducted under the auspices of IPCC and including all forcings, not just those of greenhouse gases.<sup id="cite_ref-69" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-69"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>69<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1266661725">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Crystal_energy.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/29px-Crystal_energy.svg.png" decoding="async" width="29" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/44px-Crystal_energy.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/59px-Crystal_energy.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="130" data-file-height="124" /></a></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Energy" title="Portal:Energy">Energy portal</a></span></li><li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/30px-Climate_change_icon.png" decoding="async" width="30" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/44px-Climate_change_icon.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/59px-Climate_change_icon.png 2x" data-file-width="1112" data-file-height="1056" /></span></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Climate_change" title="Portal:Climate change">Climate change portal</a></span></li></ul> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">Global dimming</a> – Reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a> – Potential heat absorbed by a greenhouse gas</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-:1-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:1_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:1_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:1_1-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">IPCC, 2021: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">Summary for Policymakers</a>. In: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. 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U.S. Geological Survey. 2021-01-12. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210524171333/https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/landsat-science-teams-crystal-schaaf-discusses-albedo-its-importance-and-how-it-can?qt-news_science_products=1#qt-news_science_products">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-05-24<span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2009-07-30</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+NOAA+Annual+Greenhouse+Gas+Index+-+Figure+5&rft.pub=NOAA&rft.date=2020&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fgmd%2Faggi%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARadiative+forcing" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-66"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-66">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="/wiki/CFC-113" class="mw-redirect" title="CFC-113">CFC-113</a>, <a href="/wiki/Tetrachloromethane" class="mw-redirect" title="Tetrachloromethane">tetrachloromethane</a> (<span class="chemf nowrap">CCl<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">4</sub></span></span></span>), <a href="/wiki/1,1,1-trichloroethane" class="mw-redirect" title="1,1,1-trichloroethane">1,1,1-trichloroethane</a> (<span class="chemf nowrap">CH<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">3</sub></span></span>CCl<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">3</sub></span></span></span>); hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) <a href="/wiki/HCFC-22" class="mw-redirect" title="HCFC-22">22</a>, <a href="/wiki/HCFC-141b" class="mw-redirect" title="HCFC-141b">141b</a> and <a href="/wiki/HCFC-142b" class="mw-redirect" title="HCFC-142b">142b</a>; <a href="/wiki/Hydrofluorocarbon" title="Hydrofluorocarbon">hydrofluorocarbons</a> (HFCs) <a href="/wiki/HFC-134a" class="mw-redirect" title="HFC-134a">134a</a>, <a href="/wiki/HFC-152a" class="mw-redirect" title="HFC-152a">152a</a>, <a href="/wiki/HFC-23" class="mw-redirect" title="HFC-23">23</a>, <a href="/wiki/HFC-143a" class="mw-redirect" title="HFC-143a">143a</a>, and <a href="/wiki/HFC-125" class="mw-redirect" title="HFC-125">125</a>; <a href="/wiki/Sulfur_hexafluoride" title="Sulfur hexafluoride">sulfur hexafluoride</a> (<span class="chemf nowrap">SF<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">6</sub></span></span></span>), and halons <a href="/wiki/Halon_1211" class="mw-redirect" title="Halon 1211">1211</a>, <a href="/wiki/Halon_1301" class="mw-redirect" title="Halon 1301">1301</a> and <a href="/wiki/Halon_2402" class="mw-redirect" title="Halon 2402">2402</a>)</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-67"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-67">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHansen" class="citation web cs1">Hansen, J.E.; et al. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/">"GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots"</a>. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2018-01-25</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=GISS+Surface+Temperature+Analysis%3A+Analysis+Graphs+and+Plots&rft.pub=Goddard+Institute+for+Space+Studies%2C+National+Aeronautics+and+Space+Administration&rft.aulast=Hansen&rft.aufirst=J.E.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdata.giss.nasa.gov%2Fgistemp%2Fgraphs%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARadiative+forcing" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-68"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-68">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSchwartzCharlsonKahnOgren2010" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="/wiki/Stephen_E._Schwartz" title="Stephen E. Schwartz">Schwartz, Stephen E.</a>; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning (2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc930353/m2/1/high_res_d/978306.pdf">"Why hasn't Earth warmed as much as expected?"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. <b>23</b> (10) (published 15 May 2010): <span class="nowrap">2453–</span>64. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JCli...23.2453S">2010JCli...23.2453S</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1175%2F2009JCLI3461.1">10.1175/2009JCLI3461.1</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:14309074">14309074</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210308053854/https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc930353/m2/1/high_res_d/978306.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 8 March 2021<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">24 September</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Climate&rft.atitle=Why+hasn%27t+Earth+warmed+as+much+as+expected%3F&rft.volume=23&rft.issue=10&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E2453-%3C%2Fspan%3E64&rft.date=2010&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A14309074%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1175%2F2009JCLI3461.1&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2010JCli...23.2453S&rft.aulast=Schwartz&rft.aufirst=Stephen+E.&rft.au=Charlson%2C+Robert+J.&rft.au=Kahn%2C+Ralph+A.&rft.au=Ogren%2C+John+A.&rft.au=Rodhe%2C+Henning&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdigital.library.unt.edu%2Fark%3A%2F67531%2Fmetadc930353%2Fm2%2F1%2Fhigh_res_d%2F978306.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARadiative+forcing" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-69"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-69">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFStocker2014" class="citation book cs1">Stocker, Thomas (24 March 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://worldcat.org/oclc/1120509660"><i>Climate change 2013 : the physical science basis : Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i></a>. Cambridge University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-107-66182-0" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-107-66182-0"><bdi>978-1-107-66182-0</bdi></a>. <a href="/wiki/OCLC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="OCLC (identifier)">OCLC</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/oclc/1120509660">1120509660</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210419134709/https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/1120509660">Archived</a> from the original on 19 April 2021<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">18 April</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Climate+change+2013+%3A+the+physical+science+basis+%3A+Working+Group+I+contribution+to+the+Fifth+assessment+report+of+the+Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2014-03-24&rft_id=info%3Aoclcnum%2F1120509660&rft.isbn=978-1-107-66182-0&rft.aulast=Stocker&rft.aufirst=Thomas&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fworldcat.org%2Foclc%2F1120509660&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARadiative+forcing" class="Z3988"></span> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_AIISM_Datafiles.xlsx">datafile</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170930161009/http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_AIISM_Datafiles.xlsx">Archived</a> 2017-09-30 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Radiative_forcing&action=edit&section=27" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_States_National_Research_Council" class="mw-redirect" title="United States National Research Council">United States National Research Council</a> (2005), <i><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/">Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties</a></i>, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page6.php">NASA: The Atmosphere's Energy Budget</a></li></ul> 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</div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Causes567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">Climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a> (<a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">Scientific consensus on climate change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiple_breadbasket_failure" title="Multiple breadbasket failure">Multi-breadbasket failure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">Representative Concentration Pathway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/16px-Climate_change_icon.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="15" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/24px-Climate_change_icon.png 1.5x, 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