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/></div></div><h2><a href="/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/2025-global-outlook-search-new-normal"><span property="schema:name">2025 global outlook: in search of a new normal</span></a></h2><div class="category primary_color"><div class="field_seccion field"> Dossier</div></div><div class="box_author_date box_ad box_with_image"><div class="field_author multiple"><div class="autor"><div about="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez" class="author-complete-teaser"> <a href="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez"><div class="field_fotografia field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/index_autor/public/content/image/2022/03/22/34454/joseramondiez-bn-cuadrada.jpg?itok=onBpj1ja" width="136" height="136" alt="José Ramón Díez" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> José Ramón Díez</div></div></div> </a></div></div></div><div class="created">November 18th, 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href="mailto:?subject=Portugal%3A%20the%20revision%20of%20the%20National%20Accounts%20points%20to%20a%20more%20robust%20economy%20|%20CaixaBank%20Research&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.caixabankresearch.com%2Fen%2Feconomics-markets%2Frecent-developments%2Fportugal-revision-national-accounts-points-more-robust"> <span class="a2a_svg"><svg focusable="false" aria-hidden="true" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 32 32"><path fill="#FFF" d="M26 21.25v-9s-9.1 6.35-9.984 6.68C15.144 18.616 6 12.25 6 12.25v9c0 1.25.266 1.5 1.5 1.5h17c1.266 0 1.5-.22 1.5-1.5zm-.015-10.765c0-.91-.265-1.235-1.485-1.235h-17c-1.255 0-1.5.39-1.5 1.3l.015.14s9.035 6.22 10 6.56c1.02-.395 9.985-6.7 9.985-6.7l-.015-.065z"></path></svg></span> </a></div> <a href="#" title="Share Close" id="share_close" class="share_toggle" style="display: none"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14.147" height="13.777"><path fill="none" stroke="#0297cc" stroke-width="1.636" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-miterlimit="10" d="M1.629 1.538l10.999 11m-10.999 0l10.999-11"/></svg> </a></div><div class="col-left" style="display: none"><div class="menu_anchors_fixed"> <label>In this article</label><ul></ul></div></div><div class="col-right"><div class="field_paragraphs"><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> The Portuguese economy’s performance in recent years has been more robust than previously estimated</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES">After reconsidering the key macroeconomic variables on the basis of the updated data series of the National Accounts, real GDP growth for 2023 was revised up from 2.3% to 2.5%. When combined with the revisions made in Q1 and Q2 2024, this places real GDP 6.8% above the level of Q4 2019. The new estimates reflect a greater contribution from domestic demand, via private consumption, and a lower contribution from foreign demand, due to an upward revision of import growth. Household savings have also been revised upwards. According to the revised series, in 2023 this variable stood at 14.3 billion euros, which places the savings rate at the end of 2023 at 8%, 1.4 pps higher than previously reported. The trend of a steady rise in the savings rate continued in S1 2024, bringing it to 9.8%. This was driven by a significant increase in nominal disposable income (+7.6% year-on-year), which exceeded the rise in nominal private consumption (4.6%).</p><p lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES">As for recent developments, the indicators for Q3 continue to show mixed signals, with a steady improvement over the course of the quarter. The main synthetic indicators suggest an acceleration of activity in September. Among them, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator showed a particularly strong recovery, rising to 104 points in September and up 2.9 points versus August. Consumer sentiment also showed improvement, as did all other sectors with the exception of construction.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/10/16/34454/im10_24_ep_01_en.jpg?itok=ogFVrWPh" width="900" height="779" alt="Portugal: G DP and its components" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Inflation rebounds above 2% in September</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>Headline inflation rose by 0.2 pps to 2.1% due to the rebound of the core components, while unprocessed food and energy inflation were more favourable (year-on-year inflation of 0.9% and –3.5%, respectively). Thus, the core index was worse than anticipated, rising to 2.8% (2.4% previously). We expect inflation to remain above 2% in the final quarter of the year, such that average inflation for the year as a whole will be 2.4%.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/10/16/34454/im10_24_ep_02_en.jpg?itok=ItqBeoS-" width="900" height="816" alt="Portugal: inflation" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Employment loses momentum</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>Employment loses momentum and in August its growth slowed to a year-on-year rate of 0.9%. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate declined again in August, reaching 6.4%. In this context, we have slightly revised our expectations for the unemployment rate downwards and we now expect it to stabilise at 6.5% in 2024 (versus 6.6% previously), moderating to 6.4% next year.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Sharp rise in home prices</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>In Q2 2024, the home price index registered the biggest quarterly increase in the series, at 3.9%. This was a far higher growth rate than those recorded in previous quarters (+1.3% and +0.6% in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, respectively). The number of sales also recovered, up 10.4% year-on-year and breaking a cycle of seven quarters of decline. In this context, we have revised our forecasts and now expect home prices to climb by an average of 6.8% in 2024.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/10/16/34454/im10_24_ep_03_en.jpg?itok=OQI3vem0" width="900" height="838" alt="Portugal: home prices" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div></div><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-complete-teaser"> <span class="external"><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div> </span></div></div></div><div class="field_tags"><div class="label">Tags:</div><div class="tag_list"> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a> <a href="/en/tags/portugal" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal</a></div></div><ul class="custom footnotes"></ul></div></div><div class="relacionados upper_menu_anchors"><div class="three-col border-bottom view view-eva view-articulos-relacionados view-id-articulos_relacionados view-display-id-relacionados js-view-dom-id-7d2d8180af4f85113e5873777531d65b8e9fe62aa3c6a94ca21d7189832d8431 view-lista-articulos"> <header><div class="tex2jax_process"><h3>To read below</h3></div> </header><div class="flex three-columns-gap20 wrap"> <article data-history-node-id="12949" role="article" about="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals" typeof="schema:Article" class="node article teaser-llista-articles"> <a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img 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author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div></div></div><div class="fecha"> 16 Jul 2024</div></div></article></div></div></div></article></div></div></div></main><footer role="contentinfo"><div class="container"><div class="logo_caixa_footer"> <a href="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en" title="CaixaBank Research footer logo"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" version="1.1" x="0px" y="0px" viewBox="0 0 469.7 126" style="enable-background:new 0 0 469.7 126;" xml:space="preserve"> <g> <path class="st0" d="M35.3,52.9c1,0.7,0.9,2,1.8,2.7l0.4,3l-2.2,3.2c-2.8,1.5-6.9,2.1-9.5-0.2c-1.5-1.3-1.9-3.2-1.5-5.1l1-2.8 c0.6-0.4,1.4-0.5,1.8-1.2c1.4-0.9,3.1-0.7,4.7-1C33,51.9,34.8,51.2,35.3,52.9"></path> <path class="st0" 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