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The Portuguese economy loses momentum in Q2
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/></div></div><h2><a href="/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/2025-global-outlook-search-new-normal"><span property="schema:name">2025 global outlook: in search of a new normal</span></a></h2><div class="category primary_color"><div class="field_seccion field"> Dossier</div></div><div class="box_author_date box_ad box_with_image"><div class="field_author multiple"><div class="autor"><div about="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez" class="author-complete-teaser"> <a href="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez"><div class="field_fotografia field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/index_autor/public/content/image/2022/03/22/34454/joseramondiez-bn-cuadrada.jpg?itok=onBpj1ja" width="136" height="136" alt="José Ramón Díez" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> José Ramón Díez</div></div></div> </a></div></div></div><div class="created">November 18th, 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in Q2</span></h1> <span property="schema:name" content=" The Portuguese economy loses momentum in Q2" class="hidden"></span><div property="schema:text" class="body field"><p><span><span><span>Portugal’s GDP recorded only a small advance in Q2, and job creation and inflation slowed in August.</span></span></span></p></div><div class="translations"><div class="available">Content available in</div><div class="languages"> <a href="/ca/economia-i-mercats/analisi-conjuntura/leconomia-portuguesa-perd-vigor-2t" hreflang="ca">catalan</a> <a href="/es/economia-y-mercados/analisis-coyuntura/economia-portuguesa-pierde-brio-2t" hreflang="es">spanish</a></div></div><div class="autor-fecha slash no_photo"><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-complete-teaser"> <span class="external"><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div> </span></div></div></div><div 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1.5-.22 1.5-1.5zm-.015-10.765c0-.91-.265-1.235-1.485-1.235h-17c-1.255 0-1.5.39-1.5 1.3l.015.14s9.035 6.22 10 6.56c1.02-.395 9.985-6.7 9.985-6.7l-.015-.065z"></path></svg></span> </a></div> <a href="#" title="Share Close" id="share_close" class="share_toggle" style="display: none"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14.147" height="13.777"><path fill="none" stroke="#0297cc" stroke-width="1.636" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-miterlimit="10" d="M1.629 1.538l10.999 11m-10.999 0l10.999-11"/></svg> </a></div><div class="col-left" style="display: none"><div class="menu_anchors_fixed"> <label>In this article</label><ul></ul></div></div><div class="col-right"><div class="field_paragraphs"><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> In Q2, GDP registered only a small advance, although the composition of the growth offers some cause for optimism</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES"> In Q2 2024, GDP grew by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, marking a significant slowdown from the 0.8% recorded in Q1. This pattern is explained by the slowdown of exports and the acceleration of imports, which has led to foreign demand making a negative contribution to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth (–0.4 pps). This contrasts with the positive contribution from domestic demand (+0.5 pps), which has been supported by investment in machinery and transport equipment. Private consumption, on the other hand, is slowing. In annual terms, GDP growth remains at 1.5%.</p><p lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES" xml:lang="es-ES">Although the figure for Q2 was lower than that anticipated by CaixaBank Research, we remain reasonably optimistic about the path of economic activity in the second half of the year thanks to tourism, the correction of inflation and the fall in financing costs. Moreover, the gradual increase in the execution of European funds will support investment. Consequently, we continue to project GDP growth in excess of 1.5% in 2024, and with upside risks.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/09/16/34454/im09_24_ep_01_en.jpg?itok=OIttHUzW" width="900" height="806" alt="Portugal: GDP and its components" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> The economic activity indicators for Q3 show a mixed performance</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>On the one hand, the Bank of Portugal’s economic activity indicator slowed in July, pointing to a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the indicator corresponding to private consumption accelerated once again in July, to 1.8% year-on-year. The sentiment indicators for August, meanwhile, reveal signs of caution among consumers and optimism in the construction and industrial sectors. Finally, tourism continues to show strong growth, with year-on-year increases in the number of tourists and overnight stays of 6% and 5%, respectively.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/09/16/34454/im09_24_ep_02_en.jpg?itok=iydh-4im" width="900" height="830" alt="Portugal: coincident indicators" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Inflation slowed to 1.9% in August</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p> 60 pps lower than in July, as a result of a 1.4% fall in energy prices and a slowdown to 0.8% (2.8% in July) in the case of food. Excluding these two components, the core inflation rate has stabilised at 2.4%, confirming the slow pace of the disinflationary process. The story over the coming months could be less favourable, especially given the pattern in energy prices: the government recently announced the partial withdrawal of the fuel support measures. Also, starting from October, electricity and gas prices and tariffs will be updated. These factors support our expectation of a rebound in inflation in the closing months of the year, while the core rate will remain at around 2.4%.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/09/16/34454/im09_24_ep_03_en.jpg?itok=0R99bfLN" width="900" height="838" alt="Portugal: inflation" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Job creation slows</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>In Q2, the pace of jobs growth slowed from 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 to 1.0%. This brings the total number of workers to 5.1 million, the highest figure since Q3 2008. As for wages, the average real monthly gross remuneration per worker increased by 3.6% in Q2, pointing to a recovery in the purchasing power of those in employment – a positive sign for the momentum of private consumption.</p></div></div></div><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-complete-teaser"> <span class="external"><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div> </span></div></div></div><div class="field_tags"><div class="label">Tags:</div><div class="tag_list"> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a> <a href="/en/tags/portugal" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal</a></div></div><ul class="custom footnotes"></ul></div></div><div class="relacionados upper_menu_anchors"><div class="three-col border-bottom view view-eva view-articulos-relacionados view-id-articulos_relacionados view-display-id-relacionados js-view-dom-id-62bb0cd2c0971b10bdf1bf20238634bd622cd190e0e7a3a9650847a97d2b4420 view-lista-articulos"> <header><div class="tex2jax_process"><h3>To read below</h3></div> </header><div class="flex three-columns-gap20 wrap"> <article data-history-node-id="12949" role="article" about="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals" typeof="schema:Article" class="node article teaser-llista-articles"> <a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/teaser/public/content/image/2024/11/07/34454/ico_im_10_pt.jpg?itok=6sve3X-U" width="433" height="289" alt="IM11" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div> </a><div class="category "> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a></div><h2 class="teaser_title"><a 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