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data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.unpin">hide</button> </div> <ul class="vector-toc-contents" id="mw-panel-toc-list"> <li id="toc-mw-content-text" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">(Top)</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-Origins" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Origins"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1</span> <span>Origins</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Origins-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Origins subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Origins-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Natural_rate_hypothesis" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Natural_rate_hypothesis"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.1</span> <span>Natural rate hypothesis</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Natural_rate_hypothesis-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-NAIRU" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#NAIRU"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.2</span> <span>NAIRU</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-NAIRU-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Properties" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Properties"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Properties</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Properties-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Relationship_to_other_economic_theories" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Relationship_to_other_economic_theories"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Relationship to other economic theories</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Relationship_to_other_economic_theories-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-United_States_boom_years_of_late_1990s_and_early_2000s" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#United_States_boom_years_of_late_1990s_and_early_2000s"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>United States boom years of late 1990s and early 2000s</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-United_States_boom_years_of_late_1990s_and_early_2000s-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Criticism" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Criticism"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Criticism</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Criticism-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Naming" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Naming"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>Naming</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Naming-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a 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class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">NAIRU</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 17 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-17" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">17 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-az mw-list-item"><a href="https://az.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Azerbaijani" lang="az" hreflang="az" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Azərbaycanca" data-language-local-name="Azerbaijani" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Azərbaycanca</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Inflation_nicht_beschleunigende_Arbeitslosenquote" title="Die Inflation nicht beschleunigende Arbeitslosenquote – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Die Inflation nicht beschleunigende Arbeitslosenquote" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taux_de_ch%C3%B4mage_n%27acc%C3%A9l%C3%A9rant_pas_l%27inflation" title="Taux de chômage n'accélérant pas l'inflation – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Taux de chômage n'accélérant pas l'inflation" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lt mw-list-item"><a href="https://lt.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Lithuanian" lang="lt" hreflang="lt" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Lietuvių" data-language-local-name="Lithuanian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Lietuvių</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hu mw-list-item"><a href="https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Hungarian" lang="hu" hreflang="hu" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Magyar" data-language-local-name="Hungarian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Magyar</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-mk mw-list-item"><a href="https://mk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82_%D1%88%D1%82%D0%BE_%D0%BD%D0%B5_%D1%98%D0%B0_%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B7%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%84%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%98%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0" title="Стапка на невработеност што не ја забрзува инфлацијата – Macedonian" lang="mk" hreflang="mk" data-title="Стапка на невработеност што не ја забрзува инфлацијата" data-language-autonym="Македонски" data-language-local-name="Macedonian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Македонски</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Finnish" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="Finnish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU – Turkish" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="NAIRU" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="Turkish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Türkçe</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%9D%9E%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E9%80%9A%E8%B4%A7%E8%86%A8%E8%83%80%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A%E7%8E%87" title="非加速通货膨胀失业率 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="非加速通货膨胀失业率" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>中文</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q1533767#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav 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.sidebar{width:100%!important;clear:both;float:none!important;margin-left:0!important;margin-right:0!important}}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .sidebar a>img{max-width:none!important}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style><table class="sidebar sidebar-collapse nomobile nowraplinks"><tbody><tr><td class="sidebar-pretitle">Part of <a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomics" title="Category:Macroeconomics">a series</a> on</td></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-title-with-pretitle"><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomics" title="Macroeconomics">Macroeconomics</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-image" style="padding-top:0.6em;"><span class="notpageimage" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Ec_8_(26088200676)_(cropped).jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Federal Reserve" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="150" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/330px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/440px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2400" data-file-height="1633" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Basic concepts</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">Aggregate demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">Aggregate supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">Business cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate" title="Compound annual growth rate">CAGR</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effective_demand" title="Effective demand">Effective demand</a></li> <li>Expectations <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_expectations" title="Adaptive expectations">Adaptive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rational_expectations" title="Rational expectations">Rational</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">Financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_growth" title="Economic growth">Growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">Inflation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demand-pull_inflation" title="Demand-pull inflation">Demand-pull</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cost-push_inflation" title="Cost-push inflation">Cost-push</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Investment_(macroeconomics)" title="Investment (macroeconomics)">Investment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_trap" title="Liquidity trap">Liquidity trap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Measures_of_national_income_and_output" title="Measures of national income and output">Measures of national income and output</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product" title="Gross domestic product">GDP</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gross_national_income" title="Gross national income">GNI</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_national_income" title="Net national income">NNI</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microfoundations" title="Microfoundations">Microfoundations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money" title="Money">Money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_money" title="Endogenous money">Endogenous</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_creation" title="Money creation">Money creation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_for_money" title="Demand for money">Demand for money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_preference" title="Liquidity preference">Liquidity preference</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_supply" title="Money supply">Money supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_accounts" title="National accounts">National accounts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts" title="System of National Accounts">SNA</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nominal_rigidity" title="Nominal rigidity">Nominal rigidity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Price_level" title="Price level">Price level</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession" title="Recession">Recession</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shrinkflation" title="Shrinkflation">Shrinkflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_saving" title="National saving">Saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Unemployment" title="Unemployment">Unemployment</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Policies</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fiscal_policy" title="Fiscal policy">Fiscal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">Monetary</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commercial_policy" title="Commercial policy">Commercial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Central_bank" title="Central bank">Central bank</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Universal_basic_income" title="Universal basic income">Universal basic income</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Models</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IS%E2%80%93LM_model" title="IS–LM model">IS–LM</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/AD%E2%80%93AS_model" title="AD–AS model">AD–AS</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_cross" title="Keynesian cross">Keynesian cross</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiplier_(economics)" title="Multiplier (economics)">Multiplier</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Accelerator_effect" title="Accelerator effect">Accelerator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arrow%E2%80%93Debreu_model" title="Arrow–Debreu model">Arrow–Debreu</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Harrod%E2%80%93Domar_model" title="Harrod–Domar model">Harrod–Domar</a>Нмиф</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model" title="Solow–Swan model">Solow–Swan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ramsey%E2%80%93Cass%E2%80%93Koopmans_model" title="Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model">Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overlapping_generations_model" title="Overlapping generations model">Overlapping generations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/General_equilibrium_theory" title="General equilibrium theory">General equilibrium</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium" title="Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium">DSGE</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_growth_theory" title="Endogenous growth theory">Endogenous growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Matching_theory_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Matching theory (economics)">Matching theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mundell%E2%80%93Fleming_model" title="Mundell–Fleming model">Mundell–Fleming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overshooting_model" title="Overshooting model">Overshooting</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">NAIRU</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Related fields</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Econometrics" title="Econometrics">Econometrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_statistics" title="Economic statistics">Economic statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_economics" title="Monetary economics">Monetary economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Development_economics" title="Development economics">Development economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_economics" title="International economics">International economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/History_of_macroeconomic_thought" title="History of macroeconomic thought">Schools</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"><i>Mainstream</i> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_economics" title="Keynesian economics">Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Neo-Keynesian economics">Neo-</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics" title="New Keynesian economics">New</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetarism" title="Monetarism">Monetarism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_classical_macroeconomics" title="New classical macroeconomics">New classical</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Real_business-cycle_theory" title="Real business-cycle theory">Real business-cycle theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stockholm_school_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Stockholm school (economics)">Stockholm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply-side_economics" title="Supply-side economics">Supply-side</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_neoclassical_synthesis" title="New neoclassical synthesis">New neoclassical synthesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_economics" title="Saltwater and freshwater economics">Saltwater and freshwater</a></li></ul> <p><i>Heterodox</i> </p> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Austrian_School" class="mw-redirect" title="Austrian School">Austrian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chartalism" title="Chartalism">Chartalism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory" title="Modern monetary theory">Modern monetary theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_economics" title="Ecological economics">Ecological</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Keynesian_economics" title="Post-Keynesian economics">Post-Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_circuit_theory" title="Monetary circuit theory">Circuitism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disequilibrium_macroeconomics" title="Disequilibrium macroeconomics">Disequilibrium</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marxian_economics" title="Marxian economics">Marxian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Market_monetarism" title="Market monetarism">Market monetarism</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomists" title="Category:Macroeconomists">People</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Quesnay" title="François Quesnay">François Quesnay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adam_Smith" title="Adam Smith">Adam Smith</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus" title="Thomas Robert Malthus">Thomas Robert Malthus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Karl_Marx" title="Karl Marx">Karl Marx</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" title="Léon Walras">Léon Walras</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Knut_Wicksell" title="Knut Wicksell">Knut Wicksell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Irving Fisher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wesley_Clair_Mitchell" title="Wesley Clair Mitchell">Wesley Clair Mitchell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" title="John Maynard Keynes">John Maynard Keynes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alvin_Hansen" title="Alvin Hansen">Alvin Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki" title="Michał Kalecki">Michał Kalecki</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gunnar_Myrdal" title="Gunnar Myrdal">Gunnar Myrdal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simon_Kuznets" title="Simon Kuznets">Simon Kuznets</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joan_Robinson" title="Joan Robinson">Joan Robinson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek" title="Friedrich Hayek">Friedrich Hayek</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Hicks" title="John Hicks">John Hicks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Richard_Stone" title="Richard Stone">Richard Stone</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" title="Hyman Minsky">Hyman Minsky</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Samuelson" title="Paul Samuelson">Paul Samuelson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lawrence_Klein" title="Lawrence Klein">Lawrence Klein</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edmund_Phelps" title="Edmund Phelps">Edmund Phelps</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robert_Lucas_Jr." title="Robert Lucas Jr.">Robert Lucas Jr.</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edward_C._Prescott" title="Edward C. Prescott">Edward C. Prescott</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peter_Diamond" title="Peter Diamond">Peter Diamond</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/William_Nordhaus" title="William Nordhaus">William Nordhaus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz" title="Joseph Stiglitz">Joseph Stiglitz</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_J._Sargent" title="Thomas J. Sargent">Thomas J. Sargent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greg_Mankiw" title="Greg Mankiw">N. Gregory Mankiw</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">See also</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomic_model" title="Macroeconomic model">Macroeconomic model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_important_publications_in_economics#Macroeconomics" title="List of important publications in economics">Publications in macroeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">Economics</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Applied_economics" title="Applied economics">Applied</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microeconomics" title="Microeconomics">Microeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_economy" title="Political economy">Political economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mathematical_economics" title="Mathematical economics">Mathematical economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-below plainlist"> <ul><li><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/16px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="8" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/24px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/32px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="465" /></span></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Money" title="Portal:Money">Money portal</a></li> <li><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Emblem-money.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" 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title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Template talk:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The <b>non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment</b> (<b>NAIRU</b>)<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is a theoretical level of <a href="/wiki/Unemployment" title="Unemployment">unemployment</a> below which <a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">inflation</a> would be expected to rise.<sup id="cite_ref-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It was first introduced as the <b>NIRU</b> (<b>non-inflationary rate of unemployment</b>) by <a href="/wiki/Franco_Modigliani" title="Franco Modigliani">Franco Modigliani</a> and <a href="/wiki/Lucas_Papademos" title="Lucas Papademos">Lucas Papademos</a> in 1975, as an improvement over the "<a href="/wiki/Natural_rate_of_unemployment" title="Natural rate of unemployment">natural rate of unemployment</a>" concept,<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> which was proposed earlier by <a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In the United States, estimates of the NAIRU ranged between 5 and 6% in the late 20th and early 21st centuries,<sup id="cite_ref-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> but have fallen to below 4% since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">Monetary policy</a> conducted under the assumption of a NAIRU typically involves allowing just enough unemployment in the economy to prevent inflation rising above a given target figure. Prices are allowed to increase gradually and some unemployment is tolerated. </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Origins">Origins</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Origins"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>An early form of NAIRU is found in the work of <a href="/wiki/Abba_P._Lerner" title="Abba P. Lerner">Abba P. Lerner</a> (<a href="#CITEREFLerner1951">Lerner 1951</a>, Chapter 14), who referred to it as "low full employment" attained via the expansion of aggregate demand, in contrast with the "high full employment" which adds <a href="/wiki/Incomes_policies" class="mw-redirect" title="Incomes policies">incomes policies</a> (wage and price controls) to demand stimulation. <a href="/wiki/Friedrich_von_Hayek" class="mw-redirect" title="Friedrich von Hayek">Friedrich von Hayek</a> argued that governments attempting to achieve full employment would accelerate inflation where unemployment results from a misalignment between the distribution of labour and the distribution of demand.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The concept arose in the wake of the popularity of the <a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a> which summarized the observed negative correlation between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation (measured as annual nominal wage growth of employees) for a number of industrialised countries with more or less <a href="/wiki/Mixed_economy" title="Mixed economy">mixed economies</a>. This correlation (previously seen for the U.S. by <a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Irving Fisher</a>) persuaded some analysts that it was impossible for governments simultaneously to target both arbitrarily low unemployment and price stability, and that, therefore, it was government's role to seek a point on the <a href="/wiki/Trade-off" title="Trade-off">trade-off</a> between unemployment and inflation which matched a domestic social consensus. </p><p>During the 1970s in the United States and several other industrialized countries, Phillips curve analysis became less popular, because inflation rose at the same time that unemployment rose (see <a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">stagflation</a>). </p><p>Worse, as far as many economists were concerned, was that the Phillips curve had little or no theoretical basis. Critics of this analysis (such as <a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a> and <a href="/wiki/Edmund_Phelps" title="Edmund Phelps">Edmund Phelps</a>) argued that the Phillips curve could not be a fundamental characteristic of economic <a href="/wiki/General_equilibrium" class="mw-redirect" title="General equilibrium">general equilibrium</a> because it showed a correlation between a real economic variable (the unemployment rate) and a nominal economic variable (the inflation rate). Their counter-analysis was that government macroeconomic policy (primarily monetary policy) was being driven by a low unemployment target and that this caused <a href="/wiki/Adaptive_expectations" title="Adaptive expectations">expectations</a> of inflation to change, so that steadily accelerating inflation rather than reduced unemployment was the result. The resulting prescription was that government economic policy (or at least monetary policy) should not be influenced by any level of unemployment below a critical level – the "natural rate" or NAIRU.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Natural_rate_hypothesis">Natural rate hypothesis</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Natural rate hypothesis"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The idea behind the <a href="/wiki/Natural_rate_of_unemployment" title="Natural rate of unemployment">natural rate</a> hypothesis put forward by Friedman was that any given labor market structure must involve a certain amount of unemployment, including <a href="/wiki/Frictional_unemployment" title="Frictional unemployment">frictional unemployment</a> associated with individuals changing jobs and possibly <a href="/wiki/Unemployment_types#Real_wage_unemployment" class="mw-redirect" title="Unemployment types">classical unemployment</a> arising from real wages being held above the market-clearing level by <a href="/wiki/Minimum_wage" title="Minimum wage">minimum wage</a> laws, <a href="/wiki/Trade_unions" class="mw-redirect" title="Trade unions">trade unions</a> or other labour market institutions. Unexpected inflation might allow unemployment to fall below the natural rate by temporarily depressing real wages, but this effect would dissipate once expectations about inflation were corrected. Only with continuously accelerating inflation could rates of unemployment below the natural rate be maintained. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="NAIRU">NAIRU</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: NAIRU"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The "natural rate" terminology was largely supplanted by that of the NAIRU, which referred to a rate of unemployment below which inflation would accelerate, but did not imply a commitment to any particular theoretical explanation, any particular preferred policy remedy or a prediction that the rate would be stable over time. <a href="/wiki/Franco_Modigliani" title="Franco Modigliani">Franco Modigliani</a> and <a href="/wiki/Lucas_Papademos" title="Lucas Papademos">Lucas Papademos</a> defined the noninflationary rate of employment (NIRU) as the rate of employment above which inflation could be expected to decline, and attempted to estimate it from empirical data<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/James_Tobin" title="James Tobin">James Tobin</a> suggested the reason for them choosing a different term was to avoid the "normative implications" of the concept of a 'natural' rate.<sup id="cite_ref-tobinwp_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tobinwp-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> He also argued that the idea of a 'natural' rate of unemployment should be viewed as closely linked to Friedman's description of it as the unemployment rate emerging in <a href="/wiki/General_equilibrium" class="mw-redirect" title="General equilibrium">general equilibrium</a>, when all other parts of the economy clear, whereas the notion of a NAIRU was compatible with an economy in which other markets need not be in equilibrium.<sup id="cite_ref-tobinwp_12-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tobinwp-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In practice the terms can be viewed as approximately synonymous.<sup id="cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ballmankiw-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Properties">Properties</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Properties"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>If <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U^{*}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msup> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U^{*}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/8def9b6d2f0acfca452861c11dc2a08419765efe" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:2.895ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U^{*}}"></span> is the NAIRU and <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>U</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/458a728f53b9a0274f059cd695e067c430956025" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.783ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U}"></span> is the actual unemployment rate, the theory says that: </p> <dl><dd>if <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U<U^{*}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>U</mi> <mo><</mo> <msup> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U<U^{*}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/0c4edd71fadfbb01f5783623c0fd38e4b7121216" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:7.777ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U<U^{*}}"></span> for a few years, inflationary expectations rise, so that the inflation rate tends to increase;</dd></dl> <dl><dd>if <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U>U^{*}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>U</mi> <mo>></mo> <msup> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U>U^{*}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/00f125a2493b8f2f1408876eeafbb456a7cfd616" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:7.777ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U>U^{*}}"></span> for a few years, inflationary expectations fall, so that the inflation rate tends to slow (there is <a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">disinflation</a>); and</dd></dl> <dl><dd>if <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U=U^{*}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>U</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msup> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U=U^{*}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/4b19826d4e74164413e75960f97243ecced35e31" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:7.777ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U=U^{*}}"></span>, the inflation rate tends to stay the same, unless there is an <a href="/wiki/Exogenous" class="mw-redirect" title="Exogenous">exogenous</a> shock.</dd></dl> <p><a href="/wiki/Okun%27s_law" title="Okun's law">Okun's law</a> can be stated as saying that for every one percentage point by which the actual unemployment rate exceeds the so-called "natural" rate of unemployment, real gross domestic product is reduced by 2% to 3%. </p><p>The level of the NAIRU itself is assumed to fluctuate over time as the relationship between unemployment level and pressure on wage levels is affected by productivity, demographics and public policies<sup id="cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ballmankiw-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In Australia, for example, the NAIRU is estimated to have fallen from around 6% in the late 1990s to closer to 4% twenty years later in 2018.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Relationship_to_other_economic_theories">Relationship to other economic theories</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Relationship to other economic theories"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Most economists do not see the NAIRU theory as explaining all inflation. Instead, it is possible to move along a <i>short run</i> Phillips Curve (even though the NAIRU theory says that this curve shifts in the <i>longer run</i>) so that unemployment can rise or fall due to changes in inflation. Exogenous <a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">supply shock</a> inflation is also possible, as with the "<a href="/wiki/1973_oil_crisis" title="1973 oil crisis">energy crises</a>" of the 1970s or the credit crunch of the early 21st century. </p><p>The NAIRU theory was mainly intended as an argument against active <a href="/wiki/Keynesian" class="mw-redirect" title="Keynesian">Keynesian</a> demand management and in favor of free markets (at least on the macroeconomic level). <a href="/wiki/Monetarism" title="Monetarism">Monetarists</a> instead support the generalized assertion that the correct approach to unemployment is through microeconomic measures (to lower the NAIRU whatever its exact level), rather than macroeconomic activity based on an estimate of the NAIRU in relation to the actual level of unemployment. Monetary policy, they maintain, should aim instead at stabilizing the inflation rate. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="United_States_boom_years_of_late_1990s_and_early_2000s">United States boom years of late 1990s and early 2000s</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: United States boom years of late 1990s and early 2000s"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In the U.S. boom years of 1998, 1999, and 2000, unemployment dipped below NAIRU estimates without causing significant increases of inflation. There are at least three potential explanations of this: (1) Fed Chair Alan Greenspan had correctly judged that the Internet revolution had structurally lowered NAIRU, or (2) NAIRU is largely mistaken as a concept, or (3) NAIRU correctly applies only to certain historical periods, for example, the 1970s when a higher percentage of workers belonged to unions and some contracts had wage increases tied in advance to the inflation rate, but perhaps neither as accurately nor as correctly to other time periods.<sup id="cite_ref-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><i>Vox</i> reporter Matthew Yglesias wrote of the late 1990s, "Everyone — from college students to stay-at-home moms to sixty-somethings to low-level drug dealers — becomes somewhat more inclined to seek formal employment. That lets veteran workers get higher pay, even as companies are able to maintain some lower-pay work thanks to the growing labor force. This is essentially what we saw happen during the boom years of 1998 and 1999. Wages did rise, but the labor force also grew quite rapidly, and inflation remained under control."<sup id="cite_ref-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014_2-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Vox,_Matthew_Yglesias,_Nov._2014-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The unemployment rate declined to 4% for Dec. 1999, hit a low of 3.8% for April 2000, and held at 3.9% for four months from Sept. to Dec. 2000.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This is the U-3 rate, which is what's most commonly reported in the news. It does not include either persons termed discouraged workers nor those with part-time employment actively seeking full-time.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Criticism">Criticism</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Criticism"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Since NAIRU can vary over time, any estimates of the NAIRU at any point in time have a relatively wide margin for error, which limits its practical value as a policymaking tool.<sup id="cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ballmankiw-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> As the NAIRU is inferred from levels of inflation and unemployment and the relationship between those variables is acknowledged to vary over time, some economists have questioned whether there is any real empirical evidence for it at all.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The NAIRU analysis is especially problematic if the Phillips curve displays <a href="/wiki/Hysteresis#In_economics" title="Hysteresis">hysteresis</a>, that is, if episodes of high unemployment raise the NAIRU.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This could happen, for example, if unemployed workers lose skills and thus companies prefer to bid up of the wages of existing workers rather than hire unemployed workers. </p><p>Some economists who favour the provision of a state <a href="/wiki/Job_guarantee" title="Job guarantee">job guarantee</a>, such as <a href="/wiki/Bill_Mitchell_(economist)" title="Bill Mitchell (economist)">Bill Mitchell</a>, have argued that a certain level of state-provided "buffer" employment for people unable to find private sector jobs, which they refer to as a <a href="/wiki/Non-accelerating_inflation_buffer_employment_ratio" class="mw-redirect" title="Non-accelerating inflation buffer employment ratio">NAIBER (non-accelerating inflation buffer employment ratio)</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is also consistent with price stability. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Naming">Naming</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Naming"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>According to Case, Fair and Oster, the NAIRU is misnamed because it is not actually a "non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment". Rather, they claim it is the <i><a href="/wiki/Price_level" title="Price level">price level</a></i> that is accelerating (or decelerating), not the inflation rate. The inflation rate is just changing, not accelerating.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Full_Employment_Abandoned:_Shifting_Sands_and_Policy_Failures" class="mw-redirect" title="Full Employment Abandoned: Shifting Sands and Policy Failures">Full Employment Abandoned: Shifting Sands and Policy Failures</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NAIBER" title="NAIBER">NAIBER</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFCoe" class="citation cs2">Coe, David T, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/19/33917832.pdf"><i>Nominal Wages. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">8 June</span> 2018</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Cowles+Foundation+Discussion+Paper&rft.atitle=SUPPLY+CONSTRAINTS+ON+EMPLOYMENT+AND+OUTPUT%3A+NAIRU+VERSUS+NATURAL+RATE&rft.date=1997-04&rft.aulast=Tobin&rft.aufirst=James&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fcowles.yale.edu%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Ffiles%2Fpub%2Fd11%2Fd1150.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ballmankiw-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ballmankiw_13-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBallMankiw2002" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="/wiki/Laurence_M._Ball" title="Laurence M. Ball">Ball, Laurence</a>; Mankiw, N. Gregory (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/jep.ballmankiw.pdf">"The NAIRU in Theory and Practice"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Journal of Economic Perspectives</i>. <b>16</b> (4): 115–136. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1257%2F089533002320951000">10.1257/089533002320951000</a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">8 June</span> 2018</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Economic+Perspectives&rft.atitle=The+NAIRU+in+Theory+and+Practice&rft.volume=16&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=115-136&rft.date=2002&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1257%2F089533002320951000&rft.aulast=Ball&rft.aufirst=Laurence&rft.au=Mankiw%2C+N.+Gregory&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fscholar.harvard.edu%2Ffiles%2Fmankiw%2Ffiles%2Fjep.ballmankiw.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">See the discussion about problems of estimating the NAIRU in Australia in Luci Ellis, '<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-ag-2019-06-12-2.html">Watching the invisibles: The 2019 Freebairn Lecture in Public Policy'</a>, <a href="/wiki/Reserve_Bank_of_Australia" title="Reserve Bank of Australia">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>, 12 June 2019.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/UNRATE.txt">Unemployment rate</a>, Federal Reserve Economic Data ("FRED"), St. Louis Fed Branch, U-3 unemployment is defined as unemployed persons as percent of labor pool (labor pool is persons employed or actively seeking), data from Jan. 1948 to present.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=4773&rid=50">Alternative measures of labor underutilization</a>, Federal Reserve Economic Data ("FRED"), St. Louis Federal Reserve, graphs are available showing Jan. 1994 to present.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">E McGaughey, 'Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy' (2018) <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448">SSRN, part 2(1)</a>. <a href="/wiki/SP_Hargreaves_Heap" class="mw-redirect" title="SP Hargreaves Heap">SP Hargreaves Heap</a>, ‘Choosing the Wrong ‘Natural’ Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?’ (1980) 90(359) Economic Journal 611. K Clark and <a href="/wiki/L_Summers" class="mw-redirect" title="L Summers">L Summers</a>, ‘Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence’ (1982) 49(5) Review of Economic Studies 825.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-18">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBall,_Laurence2009" class="citation cs2">Ball, Laurence (2009), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w14818.pdf"><i>Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence</i></a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Hysteresis+in+Unemployment%3A+Old+and+New+Evidence&rft.date=2009&rft.au=Ball%2C+Laurence&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nber.org%2Fpapers%2Fw14818.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-19"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-19">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWilliam_Mitchell,_J._Muysken2008" class="citation cs2">William Mitchell, J. Muysken (2008), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=caEl9oAI4XoC"><i>Full employment abandoned: shifting sands and policy failures</i></a>, Edward Elgar Publishing, <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-85898-507-7" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-85898-507-7"><bdi>978-1-85898-507-7</bdi></a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Full+employment+abandoned%3A+shifting+sands+and+policy+failures&rft.pub=Edward+Elgar+Publishing&rft.date=2008&rft.isbn=978-1-85898-507-7&rft.au=William+Mitchell%2C+J.+Muysken&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3DcaEl9oAI4XoC&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-20"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-20">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCase,_K.E.Fair,_R.C.Oster,_S.M.2016" class="citation book cs1">Case, K.E.; Fair, R.C.; Oster, S.M. (2016). <i>Principles of Macroeconomics</i>. Pearson. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780133023671" title="Special:BookSources/9780133023671"><bdi>9780133023671</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Principles+of+Macroeconomics&rft.pub=Pearson&rft.date=2016&rft.isbn=9780133023671&rft.au=Case%2C+K.E.&rft.au=Fair%2C+R.C.&rft.au=Oster%2C+S.M.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>K Clark and <a href="/wiki/L_Summers" class="mw-redirect" title="L Summers">L Summers</a>, ‘Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence’ (1982) 49(5) Review of Economic Studies 825</li> <li><a href="/wiki/SP_Hargreaves_Heap" class="mw-redirect" title="SP Hargreaves Heap">SP Hargreaves Heap</a>, ‘Choosing the Wrong ‘Natural’ Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?’ (1980) 90(359) Economic Journal 611.</li> <li>FA Hayek, ‘Full Employment, Planning and Inflation’ (1950) 4(6) Institute of Public Affairs Review 174</li> <li>E McGaughey, 'Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy' (2018) <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448">SSRN, part 2(1)</a></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFFair2004" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/Ray_Fair" title="Ray Fair">Fair, Ray C.</a> (2004). "Testing the NAIRU model". <i>Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works</i>. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. pp. 67–79. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-674-01546-0" title="Special:BookSources/0-674-01546-0"><bdi>0-674-01546-0</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Testing+the+NAIRU+model&rft.btitle=Estimating+How+the+Macroeconomy+Works&rft.place=Cambridge&rft.pages=67-79&rft.pub=Harvard+University+Press&rft.date=2004&rft.isbn=0-674-01546-0&rft.aulast=Fair&rft.aufirst=Ray+C.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFLerner1951" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/Abba_P._Lerner" title="Abba P. Lerner">Lerner, Abba P.</a> (1951). "A Wage Policy for Full Employment". <i>The Economics of Employment</i>. New York: McGraw-Hill. pp. 209–219.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=A+Wage+Policy+for+Full+Employment&rft.btitle=The+Economics+of+Employment&rft.place=New+York&rft.pages=209-219&rft.pub=McGraw-Hill&rft.date=1951&rft.aulast=Lerner&rft.aufirst=Abba+P.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFStaigerStockWatson1997" class="citation journal cs1">Staiger, Douglas; <a href="/wiki/James_H._Stock" title="James H. Stock">Stock, James H.</a>; <a href="/wiki/Mark_Watson_(economist)" title="Mark Watson (economist)">Watson, Mark W.</a> (1997). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.11.1.33">"The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Journal_of_Economic_Perspectives" title="Journal of Economic Perspectives">Journal of Economic Perspectives</a></i>. <b>11</b> (1): 33–49. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1257%2Fjep.11.1.33">10.1257/jep.11.1.33</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/JSTOR_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="JSTOR (identifier)">JSTOR</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138250">2138250</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Economic+Perspectives&rft.atitle=The+NAIRU%2C+Unemployment+and+Monetary+Policy&rft.volume=11&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=33-49&rft.date=1997&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1257%2Fjep.11.1.33&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2F2138250%23id-name%3DJSTOR&rft.aulast=Staiger&rft.aufirst=Douglas&rft.au=Stock%2C+James+H.&rft.au=Watson%2C+Mark+W.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aeaweb.org%2Farticles.php%3Fdoi%3D10.1257%2Fjep.11.1.33&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANAIRU" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=NAIRU&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://infocheese.com/NAIRU.html">NAIRU</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NROU">U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)</a>, 1949–present</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NROUST">U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term)</a>, 1949–present</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbox{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox-styles+.navbox{margin-top:-1px}.mw-parser-output .navbox-inner,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup{width:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-group,.mw-parser-output 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/>(<a href="/wiki/History_of_economic_thought" title="History of economic thought">history</a>)<br /></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mainstream_economics" title="Mainstream economics">Mainstream</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heterodox_economics" title="Heterodox economics">Heterodox</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/American_School_(economics)" title="American School (economics)">American (National)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ancient_economic_thought" title="Ancient economic thought">Ancient thought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anarchist_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Anarchist economics">Anarchist</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mutualism_(economic_theory)" title="Mutualism (economic theory)">Mutualism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Austrian_School" class="mw-redirect" title="Austrian School">Austrian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Behavioral_economics" title="Behavioral economics">Behavioral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Buddhist_economics" title="Buddhist economics">Buddhist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chartalism" title="Chartalism">Chartalism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory" title="Modern monetary theory">Modern monetary theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chicago_school_of_economics" title="Chicago school of economics">Chicago</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Classical_economics" title="Classical economics">Classical</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Critique_of_political_economy" title="Critique of political economy">Critique of political economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_democracy" title="Economic democracy">Democratic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disequilibrium_macroeconomics" title="Disequilibrium macroeconomics">Disequilibrium</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_economics" title="Ecological economics">Ecological</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Evolutionary_economics" title="Evolutionary economics">Evolutionary</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Feminist_economics" title="Feminist economics">Feminist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Georgism" title="Georgism">Georgism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Happiness_economics" title="Happiness economics">Happiness</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Historical_school_of_economics" title="Historical school of economics">Historical</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Humanistic_economics" title="Humanistic economics">Humanistic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Institutional_economics" title="Institutional economics">Institutional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_economics" title="Keynesian economics">Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Neo-Keynesian economics">Neo-</a> (<a href="/wiki/Neoclassical_synthesis" title="Neoclassical synthesis">neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics" title="New Keynesian economics">New</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Keynesian_economics" title="Post-Keynesian economics">Post-</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_circuit_theory" title="Monetary circuit theory">Circuitism</a></li></ul></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Malthusianism" title="Malthusianism">Malthusianism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marginalism" title="Marginalism">Marginalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marxian_economics" title="Marxian economics">Marxian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Neo-Marxian_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Neo-Marxian economics">Neo-</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mercantilism" title="Mercantilism">Mercantilism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mixed_economy" title="Mixed economy">Mixed</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Neoclassical_economics" title="Neoclassical economics">Neoclassical</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Lausanne_School" title="Lausanne School">Lausanne</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_classical_macroeconomics" title="New classical macroeconomics">New classical</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Real_business-cycle_theory" title="Real business-cycle theory">Real business-cycle theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_institutional_economics" title="New institutional economics">New institutional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Physiocracy" title="Physiocracy">Physiocracy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Socialist_economics" title="Socialist economics">Socialist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stockholm_School_(economics)" title="Stockholm School (economics)">Stockholm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply-side_economics" title="Supply-side economics">Supply-side</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thermoeconomics" title="Thermoeconomics">Thermo</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Economist" title="Economist">Economists</a><br /></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bernard_de_Mandeville" class="mw-redirect" title="Bernard de Mandeville">de Mandeville</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Quesnay" title="François Quesnay">Quesnay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adam_Smith" title="Adam Smith">Smith</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus" title="Thomas Robert Malthus">Malthus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jean-Baptiste_Say" title="Jean-Baptiste Say">Say</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/David_Ricardo" title="David Ricardo">Ricardo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Johann_Heinrich_von_Th%C3%BCnen" title="Johann Heinrich von Thünen">von Thünen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_List" title="Friedrich List">List</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat" title="Frédéric Bastiat">Bastiat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Antoine_Augustin_Cournot" title="Antoine Augustin Cournot">Cournot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill" title="John Stuart Mill">Mill</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hermann_Heinrich_Gossen" title="Hermann Heinrich Gossen">Gossen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Karl_Marx" title="Karl Marx">Marx</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" title="Léon Walras">Walras</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevons" title="William Stanley Jevons">Jevons</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Henry_George" title="Henry George">George</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carl_Menger" title="Carl Menger">Menger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alfred_Marshall" title="Alfred Marshall">Marshall</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Francis_Ysidro_Edgeworth" title="Francis Ysidro Edgeworth">Edgeworth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Bates_Clark" title="John Bates Clark">Clark</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Vilfredo_Pareto" title="Vilfredo Pareto">Pareto</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Eugen_von_B%C3%B6hm-Bawerk" title="Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk">von Böhm-Bawerk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_von_Wieser" title="Friedrich von Wieser">von Wieser</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thorstein_Veblen" title="Thorstein Veblen">Veblen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Fisher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arthur_Cecil_Pigou" title="Arthur Cecil Pigou">Pigou</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Eli_Heckscher" title="Eli Heckscher">Heckscher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ludwig_von_Mises" title="Ludwig von Mises">von Mises</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter" title="Joseph Schumpeter">Schumpeter</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" title="John Maynard Keynes">Keynes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frank_Knight" title="Frank Knight">Knight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Karl_Polanyi" title="Karl Polanyi">Polanyi</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ragnar_Frisch" title="Ragnar Frisch">Frisch</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Piero_Sraffa" title="Piero Sraffa">Sraffa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gunnar_Myrdal" title="Gunnar Myrdal">Myrdal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek" title="Friedrich Hayek">Hayek</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki" title="Michał Kalecki">Kalecki</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wilhelm_R%C3%B6pke" title="Wilhelm Röpke">Röpke</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simon_Kuznets" title="Simon Kuznets">Kuznets</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jan_Tinbergen" title="Jan Tinbergen">Tinbergen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joan_Robinson" title="Joan Robinson">Robinson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_von_Neumann" title="John von Neumann">von Neumann</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Hicks" title="John Hicks">Hicks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oskar_R._Lange" title="Oskar R. Lange">Lange</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wassily_Leontief" title="Wassily Leontief">Leontief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Kenneth_Galbraith" title="John Kenneth Galbraith">Galbraith</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tjalling_Koopmans" title="Tjalling Koopmans">Koopmans</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/E._F._Schumacher" title="E. F. Schumacher">Schumacher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Friedman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Samuelson" title="Paul Samuelson">Samuelson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Herbert_A._Simon" title="Herbert A. Simon">Simon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_M._Buchanan" title="James M. 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