2022 Technical Report | Resources – U.S. Sea Level Change

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data-react-cache-id="OtpMobileNav-0"></div> <div class='wysiwyg_content'> <div data-react-class="UnitSwitch" data-react-props="{"units":"standard"}" data-react-cache-id="UnitSwitch-0"></div> <section class='automat_module module definition_teaser_squares' style='background-color: transparent;'> <div class='automat_items_container'> <header> <h2 class='module_title'> Key Takeaways </h2> </header> <div class='automat_items desktop_automat_items item_count_4 numerous_items'> <div class='compartment'> <a class='compartment_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#slr'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='gradient_container_bottom'></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_cover_title'> <h4 class='title'> Sea Level Rise </h4> </div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Sea Level Rise </h4> <div class='additional_info'> <div class='rollover_body'>Sea level along the U.S. Coastline is predicted to rise <span class="standard_units">10 - 12 inches</span><span class="metric_units">0.25 - 0.5 meters</span> over the next 30 years.</div> <div class='more_link'> Learn More </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class='compartment'> <a class='compartment_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#flooding'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='gradient_container_bottom'></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_cover_title'> <h4 class='title'> Flooding </h4> </div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Flooding </h4> <div class='additional_info'> <div class='rollover_body'>In the next 30 years, flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today.</div> <div class='more_link'> Learn More </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class='compartment'> <a class='compartment_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#emissions'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='gradient_container_bottom'></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_cover_title'> <h4 class='title'> Emissions </h4> </div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Emissions </h4> <div class='additional_info'> <div class='rollover_body'>Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional <span class="standard_units">1.5 to 5 feet</span><span class="metric_units">0.5 to 1.5 meters</span> of rise by the end of this century.</div> <div class='more_link'> Learn More </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class='compartment'> <a class='compartment_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#tracking'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='gradient_container_bottom'></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_cover_title'> <h4 class='title'> Tracking </h4> </div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Tracking </h4> <div class='additional_info'> <div class='rollover_body'>Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation.</div> <div class='more_link'> Learn More </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> </div> <div class='automat_items mobile_automat_items item_count_4 numerous_items'> <div class='compartment_mobile automat_item'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Sea Level Rise </h4> </div> <div class='additional_info_mobile'> <div class='rollover_body'> Sea level along the U.S. Coastline is predicted to rise <span class="standard_units">10 - 12 inches</span><span class="metric_units">0.25 - 0.5 meters</span> over the next 30 years. </div> <a class='more_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#slr'> more </a> </div> </div> <div class='compartment_mobile automat_item'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Flooding </h4> </div> <div class='additional_info_mobile'> <div class='rollover_body'> In the next 30 years, flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today. </div> <a class='more_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#flooding'> more </a> </div> </div> <div class='compartment_mobile automat_item'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Emissions </h4> </div> <div class='additional_info_mobile'> <div class='rollover_body'> Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional <span class="standard_units">1.5 to 5 feet</span><span class="metric_units">0.5 to 1.5 meters</span> of rise by the end of this century. </div> <a class='more_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#emissions'> more </a> </div> </div> <div class='compartment_mobile automat_item'> <div class='image_container' style=''></div> <div class='automat_screen'></div> <div class='automat_text_container'> <h4 class='title'> Tracking </h4> </div> <div class='additional_info_mobile'> <div class='rollover_body'> Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation. </div> <a class='more_link' href='/resources/2022-sea-level-rise-technical-report/#tracking'> more </a> </div> </div> </div> <footer class='automat_footer'> <a class='button' href='/internal_resources/756/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf'> Download the Full Report </a> <a class='extra_link' href='#application-guide-download'> Download the Technical Report companion Application Guide </a> </footer> </div> </section> <p>The Sea Level Rise Technical Report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise scenarios available for all U.S. states and territories; decision-makers will look to it for information.</p> <div class='snippet_box_container with_frame_title'> <div class='snippet_box_module'> <fieldset class='snippet_box_inners' role='presentation'> <legend class='frame_title'> Data Download </legend> <p class='description'> <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/Sea_Level_Rise_Datasets_2022.zip">Download the sea level scenarios and extreme water level projections from the 2022 Technical Report.</a> </p> </fieldset> </div> </div> <p>This multi-agency effort, representing the first update since 2017, offers sea level scenarios out to the year 2150 and information to help communities assess potential changes in average tide heights and height-specific threshold frequencies as they strive to adapt to sea level rise.</p> <div data-react-class="Video" data-react-props="{"files":[{"file":"/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBcXdJIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJibG9iX2lkIn19--0392cfd7ead9aa66632a57668f9d389d50f9c351/noaa-slrtr-full-medres.mp4?disposition=inline"},{"file":"undefined"},{"file":"undefined"}],"vtt_files":[{"file":"/internal_resources/839/captions.vtt"}],"caption":"Overview and Summary of Key Messages from 2022 Interagency Technical Report; Credit: NOAA Office of Coastal Management","poster":"/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBcTRJIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJibG9iX2lkIn19--03ae428b1f6ca3da0d0c7e88dd7ccff959d4fff7/Screenshot%202024-07-30%20at%208.17.57%E2%80%AFAM.png?disposition=inline","video_div":"video_61133","layout":"column-width","autostart":false,"plays_inline":true,"vrview":"false","vrview_stereo":"true","title":"Overview of 2022 Interagency Technical Report","display_caption":true,"autoloop":false,"controls":null}" data-react-cache-id="Video-0" class="column-width video_player_container"></div> <section class='many_logos module'> <fieldset class='many_logos_frame border'> <legend class='frame_title'> Multi-Agency Effort </legend> <div data-react-class="ManyLogos" data-react-props="{"logos":[["epa","https://www.epa.gov/","US Environmental Protection Agency"],["fema","https://www.fema.gov/","Federal Emergency Management Agency"],["nasa","https://www.nasa.gov/","National Aeronautics and Space Administration"],["noaa","https://www.noaa.gov/","National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"],["usace","https://www.usace.army.mil/","US Army Corps of Engineers"],["dod","https://www.defense.gov/","US Department of Defense"],["usgs","https://www.usgs.gov/","US Geological Survey"]]}" data-react-cache-id="ManyLogos-0"></div> </fieldset> </section> <p><a name="slr"></a><section class='sticky_stack module' style=''> <div data-react-class="StickyStack" data-react-props="{"title":"Sea Level Rise Over the Next 30 Years","subtitle":"2020-2050","body":"\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eSea level along the U.S. coastline is expected to rise, on average, \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e10 - 12 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.25 - 0.5 meters\u003c/span\u003e in the next 30 years, which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eOn average, rise in the next three decades is anticipated to be:\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cul\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eEast Coast:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e10-14 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.25 - 0.35 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eWest Coast:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e4-8 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.1 - 0.2 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eGulf Coast:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e14-18 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.35 - 0.45 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eCarribean:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e8-10 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.2 - 0.25 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eHawaiian Islands:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e6-8 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.15 - 0.2 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eNorthern Alaska:\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e8-10 inches\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.2 - 0.25 meters\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\u003c/ul\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eThis report provides greater confidence in estimates of sea level rise out to 2050 than the previous 2017 report because of advances in sea level science, as captured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u0026rsquo;s Sixth Assessment Report, and the use of multiple lines of evidence: both the trends in the amount of relative sea level rise already observed and the models of future sea level rise closely match one another in the next 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e"}" data-react-cache-id="StickyStack-0"></div> </section><a name="flooding"></a><section class='sticky_stack module' style='background-color: #F5F5F5;'> <div data-react-class="StickyStack" data-react-props="{"title":"More Damaging Flooding","subtitle":"","body":"\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eSea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eWith this shift, by 2050:\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cul\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003ca class=\"glossary_link\" href=\"/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title\u0026amp;ss_id=380\" title=\"Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vestibulum ut blandit purus. Suspendisse gravida justo non risus dapibus elementum\"\u003eMinor flooding\u003c/a\u003e is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003ca class=\"glossary_link\" href=\"/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title\u0026amp;ss_id=381\" title=\"Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vestibulum ut blandit purus. Suspendisse gravida justo non risus dapibus elementum\"\u003eModerate flooding\u003c/a\u003e will occur more frequently than \u003ca class=\"glossary_link\" href=\"/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title\u0026amp;ss_id=380\" title=\"Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vestibulum ut blandit purus. Suspendisse gravida justo non risus dapibus elementum\"\u003eminor flooding\u003c/a\u003e does today.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003ca class=\"glossary_link\" href=\"/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title\u0026amp;ss_id=382\" title=\"Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vestibulum ut blandit purus. Suspendisse gravida justo non risus dapibus elementum\"\u003eMajor flooding\u003c/a\u003e is expected to occur five times as often as it does today.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\u003c/ul\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eCoastal flooding can be exacerbated by many factors that are not included in these estimates, such as rainfall, river discharge, wave impacts like coastal erosion, and existing infrastructure.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eWithout additional risk reduction measures, U.S. coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems will face increased impacts.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n"}" data-react-cache-id="StickyStack-0"></div> </section><a name="emissions"></a><section class='sticky_stack module' style=''> <div data-react-class="StickyStack" data-react-props="{"title":"Emissions Matter","subtitle":"","body":"\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eCurrent and future emissions will determine the amount of additional rise in the future: the greater the emissions, the greater the warming, and the greater the likelihood of higher sea levels.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cul\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003eBecause of emissions to date, \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e2 feet\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.6 meters\u003c/span\u003e of sea level rise will likely occur along the U.S. coastline between 2020 and 2100. \u003cb\u003eFailing to curb future emissions could cause an additional \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e1.5 to 5 feet\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e0.5 to 1.5 meters\u003c/span\u003e of rise, for a total of \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e3.5 to 7 feet\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e\u003cb\u003e1.1 - 2.1 meters\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e.\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\t\u003cli\u003e\u003cb\u003eAbove \u003cspan class=\"standard_units\"\u003e5.5\u0026deg;F\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e \u003cspan class=\"metric_units\"\u003e3\u0026deg;C\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/b\u003e\u003cb\u003eof global warming, much greater sea level rise becomes possible for the U.S. and globally\u003c/b\u003e because of the potential for rapid melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The amount of additional warming required to trigger this is unknown because ice sheet instability is difficult to model and there is great variability in current modeling approaches.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n\u003c/ul\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eThis report provides greater confidence in estimates of sea level rise out to 2050 than the previous 2017 report because of advances in sea level science, as captured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u0026rsquo;s Sixth Assessment Report, and the use of multiple lines of evidence: both the trends in the amount of relative sea level rise already observed and the models of future sea level rise closely match one another in the next 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e"}" data-react-cache-id="StickyStack-0"></div> </section><a name="tracking"></a><section class='sticky_stack module' style='background-color: #F5F5F5;'> <div data-react-class="StickyStack" data-react-props="{"title":"Continual Tracking is Important","subtitle":"","body":"\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eContinuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation. Our ability to \u003ca href=\"/sea-level-101/how-we-measure/\"\u003emonitor and understand\u003c/a\u003e the individual factors that contribute to sea level rise allows us to track sea level changes in a way that has never before been possible.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003eU.S. federal agencies monitoring and assessing key sea level rise contributors can provide early indications of change in the trajectory of sea level rise\u0026mdash; which can inform shifts in adaptation planning.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n"}" data-react-cache-id="StickyStack-0"></div> </section> <p><a name="application-guide-download"></a><aside class='aside_module column-width'> <div class='text_column'> <header> <h2 class='boxed_module_title'> 2022 Technical Report Application Guide </h2> </header> <div class='aside_body'> <p> When it comes to incorporating sea level rise projections into community planning initiatives, the path for each community, for each project, is not crystal clear, as there are many factors to consider. That’s what this application guide helps the reader do — wade through the considerations and arrive at what’s best for their community. This publication is a companion for the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, which represents the most up-to-date sea level rise information available.</p> <ul> <li><a href="/internal_resources/784/noaa-nos-techrpt02-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US-application-guide.pdf">Download the Application Guide (English)</a></li> <li><a href="/internal_resources/785/Publication-Spanish-Application-Guide-for-the-2022-Sea-Level-Rise-Technical-Report.pdf">Download the Application Guide (español)</a></li> </ul> </p> </div> </div> </aside></p> <h3>Additional Resources</h3> <ul> <li><a href="/internal_resources/786/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf">2017 Sea Level Rise Technical Report (PDF)</a></li> </ul> <h4>U.S. Global Change Research Program</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/">Website (globalchange.gov)</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/our-work/fifth-national-climate-assessment">Fifth National Climate Assessment</a></li> </ul> <h4>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Website (ipcc.ch)</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)</a></li> </ul> <p> </p> </div> </div> </article> </section> </div> <footer class='site_footer' id='site_footer'> <section class='upper_footer'> <div class='col'> <div class='share'> <h2>Join the discussion</h2> <div data-react-class="CherTools" data-react-props="{"follow":[["Twitter","https://twitter.com","/assets/public/twitter_icon@2x.png"],["Facebook","https://www.facebook.com/","/assets/public/facebook_icon@2x.png"]]}" data-react-cache-id="CherTools-0"></div> </div> </div> </section> <section class='footer_brands'> <div class='grid_layout'> <h3 class='brands_header'> <a href='/about/shared-vision/'>This website is a coordinated effort between these participating agencies ›</a> </h3> <section class='many_logos'> <div data-react-class="ManyLogos" data-react-props="{"logos":[["epa","https://www.epa.gov/","US Environmental Protection Agency"],["fema","https://www.fema.gov/","Federal Emergency Management Agency"],["nasa","https://www.nasa.gov/","National Aeronautics and Space Administration"],["noaa","https://www.noaa.gov/","National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"],["usace","https://www.usace.army.mil/","US Army Corps of Engineers"],["dod","https://www.defense.gov/","US Department of Defense"],["usgs","https://www.usgs.gov/","US Geological Survey"]]}" data-react-cache-id="ManyLogos-0"></div> </section> </div> </section> <div class='footer_divider'></div> <section class='sitemap'> <div class='grid_layout'> <div class='sitemap_directory' id='sitemap_directory'> <div class='sitemap_block'> <div class='footer_sitemap_item'> <h3 class='sitemap_title'> <a href="/sea-level-101/introduction/">Sea Level 101</a> </h3> <ul><li> <div class='global_subnav_container'> <ul class='subnav'> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/introduction/' target='_self'>Introduction</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/global-sea-level-rise/the-basics/' target='_self'>Global Sea Level Rise</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/local-sea-level-change/the-basics/' target='_self'>Local Sea Level Change</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/how-we-measure/the-basics/' target='_self'>How We Measure</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/future-sea-level/the-basics/' target='_self'>Future Sea Level</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/impacts/the-basics/' target='_self'>Impacts</a> </li> <li> <a href='/sea-level-101/what-can-we-do/' target='_self'>What Can We Do?</a> </li> </ul> </div> </li></ul> </div> </div> <div class='sitemap_block'> <div class='footer_sitemap_item'> <h3 class='sitemap_title'> <a href="/national-sea-level-explorer/">National Sea Level Explorer</a> </h3> <ul> </ul> </div> </div> <div class='sitemap_block'> <div class='footer_sitemap_item'> <h3 class='sitemap_title'> <a 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2022 Technical Report | Resources – U.S. Sea Level Change