The Basics | Future Sea Level – U.S. Sea Level Change

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The more the planet warms, the more sea levels will rise.' property='og:description'> <meta content='The Basics | Future Sea Level – U.S. Sea Level Change' property='og:title'> <meta content='https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/sea-level-101/future-sea-level/the-basics' property='og:url'> <meta content='article' property='og:type'> <meta content='2024-11-07 23:56:14 UTC' property='og:updated_time'> <meta content='https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/internal_resources/846/og_future-change.jpg' property='og:image'> <meta content='https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/internal_resources/846/og_future-change.jpg' name='twitter:image'> <meta content='https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/internal_resources/846/og_future-change.jpg' name='thumbnail'> <link href='https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/internal_resources/846/og_future-change.jpg' rel='image_src'> <meta content='859379156164259' property='fb:app_id'> <link 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<div class='wysiwyg_content'> <p><div class='snippet_box_container with_frame_title'> <div class='snippet_box_module'> <fieldset class='snippet_box_inners' role='presentation'> <legend class='frame_title'> Key Takeaways </legend> <p class='description'> <ul> <li>Sea level will continue to rise globally well into the future as long as the planet continues warming from greenhouse gas emissions.</li> <li>For the United States, sea level rise will likely reach around 12 inches (1 foot) by 2050. By 2100, it will likely reach between 2.3 feet and 4 feet, but higher amounts are possible and and depend on greenhouse gas emissions. </li> <li>Sea level rise will be higher or lower in some places due to local factors, like changes in land height and ocean currents.</li> <li>Sea level will still rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions stop. </p> </fieldset> </div> </div></li> </ul> <h2><span class="mb_anchor_title">Sea Level Will Continue to Rise<a class="mb_anchor" name="sea_level_will_continue_to_rise"></a></span><b>Sea Level Will Continue to Rise</b></h2> <p>The global sea level is rising due to human-caused climate change warming the planet. The planet warming is linked to <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=451" title="Gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of radiation emitted by Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and ozone are the primary GHGs in Earth’s atmosphere">greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Thus, the more greenhouse gases that get added to the atmosphere, the more the global sea level will rise.</p> <p>How much it rises will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere moving forward. To explore the possibilities, scientists use <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=448" title="Scenarios used by scientists to predict how global societies, economies, and environments might change over the 21st century. These pathways help researchers understand how different levels of social and economic development can affect climate change and how societies might respond to it. SSPs are used in climate models to explore how different socioeconomic trajectories might influence future greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and societal resilience.">emission scenarios</a>. These show the possible range, from low to high, for the amount of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere between now and 2100. The latest <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=465" title="A synthesis from the IPCC released in 2023 that provides an overview of the state of knowledge on the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the previous report in 2014.">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)</a> from August 2021 used these emission scenarios to <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=467" title="Involves the long-term simulation of future climate conditions based on various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and other socio-economic factors. These projections extend over decades to centuries and are not predictions of specific future weather events but rather scenarios of how the climate might change under different assumptions about human activities and natural processes. Climate projections use complex climate models to estimate changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and other climate variables. They help policymakers and researchers understand potential future climates and guide decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.">project</a> sea level rise by 2100. They found that global sea levels could rise by anywhere between 0.9 to 3.3 feet (0.27 to 1.01 meters) by 2100, with even higher amounts possible depending on what happens with the ice sheets. </p> <p>The <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=473" title="An interagency report that provides the most up-to-date sea level rise scenarios available for all U.S. states and territories. It offers scenarios out to the year 2150 and information to help communities assess potential changes in average tide heights and height-specific threshold frequencies as they strive to adapt to sea level rise.">2022 Interagency Technical Report</a> created five <a class="glossary_link" href="/resources/glossary/?alpha=A-Z:title&ss_id=474" title="A plausible description of how sea level may change based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., emissions ) and relationships. Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts but are used to provide a view of the implications of developments and actions. They are built from probabilistic projections.">sea level scenarios</a> to show different levels that sea level rise could reach in the United States. These include different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and water added to the ocean from land ice melting. All of the scenarios had sea levels rising around 12 inches (0.3 meters) by 2050. Then, the most likely scenarios had sea levels rising from 2.3 to 4 feet (0.7 to 1.2 meters) by 2100 in the U.S. depending on greenhouse gas emissions today and in the future. Although, higher levels are possible in some locations, such as the Gulf Coast. Other factors, such as changes in land height and ocean currents, play a large role in local sea level change and will continue to do so in the future.</p> <div class='faq_floater_container'> <aside class='faq_floater module'> <div class='question expanding_list_item'> <a class='mb_anchor_faq' id='question_112' name='question_112'></a> <div class='title_container' id='title_container_question_112'> <div class='title'> How are the sea level rise scenarios in the 2022 report different from the 2017 report? </div> </div> <div class='text answer'> <p>The 2022 technical report presents five possible global sea level rise scenarios by 2100, ranging from Low (1 foot) to High (6.6 feet), similar to the 2017 report but excluding the Extreme scenario. The projections for 2100 remain unchanged, but updated modeling of ice sheet behavior results in less acceleration in higher scenarios until about 2050, followed by greater acceleration toward the century's end. Consequently, the near-term range of sea level rise is narrower, while the likely range for each scenario is broader compared to the 2017 report.</p> <a class='answer_detail_link' href='/faq/112/how-are-the-sea-level-rise-scenarios-in-the-2022-report-different-from-the-2017-report/' id='answer_detail_112'> Detailed answer </a> </div> </div> </aside> </div> <script> $(document).ready(function(){ $('#title_container_question_112').click(function(){ $(this).toggleClass("open"); $(this).siblings('.answer').slideToggle() }); }); </script> <p>Scientists are continuously improving their understanding of how ice sheets and glaciers are melting. Thus, each time these values are calculated, they provide improved estimates of what could happen. If scientists find that the glaciers are melting faster than previously measured, then this will lead to a higher global sea level estimate for the future.</p> <div data-react-class="Video" data-react-props="{"files":[{"file":"/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBcThJIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJibG9iX2lkIn19--2a8ae7c7b1e1538818dea95d390566ed5825d389/noaa-slrtr-fsl-medres.mp4?disposition=inline"},{"file":"undefined"},{"file":"undefined"}],"vtt_files":[{"file":"/internal_resources/840/noaa-slrtr-fsl-medres (1).vtt"}],"caption":"Overview of Sea Level Scenarios for the U.S. Coastlines; Credit: NOAA Office of Coastal Management.","poster":"/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBckVJIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJibG9iX2lkIn19--e6bbd94e94484f42b6db4ea84777d653664de077/Screenshot%202024-07-30%20at%208.26.37%E2%80%AFPM.png?disposition=inline","video_div":"video_92482","layout":"column-width","autostart":false,"plays_inline":true,"vrview":"false","vrview_stereo":"true","title":"Future Sea Level Scenarios","display_caption":true,"autoloop":false,"controls":"minimal"}" data-react-cache-id="Video-0" class="column-width video_player_container"></div> <h2><span class="mb_anchor_title">What If We Stop Adding Greenhouse Gases?<a class="mb_anchor" name="what_if_we_stop_adding_greenhouse_gases?"></a></span><b>What Happens If We Stop Adding Greenhouse Gases?</b></h2> <p>Even if we stop all greenhouse gas emissions today, the global sea level will continue to rise over the next few centuries. This will happen no matter when greenhouse gas emissions stop. This is because Earth’s climate is very large and complex. It takes time to cycle through changes and to reach a new balance.</p> <p>Think of driving a car with no brakes. Right now our foot is on the accelerator slowly speeding us up as we add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. If we take our foot off the accelerator, the car won’t stop right away. It takes some time to roll to a stop. Similarly, if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions today or removed some greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, the heat added to the planet needs time to rebalance and cycle out. And as long as the planet is warmer, land ice will melt and ocean water will expand, rising the global sea level.</p> <p><div class='snippet_box_container with_frame_title'> <div class='snippet_box_module'> <fieldset class='snippet_box_inners' role='presentation'> <legend class='frame_title'> Sea Level Snippets </legend> <p class='description'> <ul> <li>Based on current estimates, we expect to see as much or more sea level rise in the next 30 years as we have seen in the past 100 years along the U.S. coastlines.</li> <li>Regionally, projections of sea level rise can differ from one place to the next due to changes in ocean circulation, ice sheet fingerprints, and coastal vertical land motion. For example, projections of sea level rise are higher along the Gulf Coast of the U.S. due to regional subsidence. </p> </fieldset> </div> </div></li> </ul> <p><b>Dive Deeper: </b><b><a href="/sea-level-101/future-sea-level/dive-deeper/">How we create sea level scenarios and account for differences in future sea level rise from one location to the next.</a></b></p> <aside class='aside_module promo'> <a class='image_column' href='/national-sea-level-explorer/' target='_self'> <div class='aside_module_image'> <img alt="graph data" src="/internal_resources/720/guide-promo.jpeg" /> </div> </a> <div class='text_column'> <header> <h2 class='boxed_module_title'> Prepare for a More Resilient Future </h2> </header> <div class='aside_body'> <p> View past, present and future sea level rise and impacts for the coastlines of the United States. </p> </div> <p> <a class='aside_link' href='/national-sea-level-explorer/' target='_self'> National Sea Level Explorer </a> </p> </div> </aside> <hr /> <p><a 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