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class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11676720/A_RISK_FRAMEWORK_FOR_MARITIME_TRANSPORTATION_SYSTEMS">A RISK FRAMEWORK FOR MARITIME TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="792de6f15dae74925d04e9b27dfa5377" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37126711,"asset_id":11676720,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126711/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span 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For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be claimed of being reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the formal definition of risk, which is adopted. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. It is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Network, which effectively propagate the knowledge and understanding of the analysed system through the model. We expect this approach to assist the knowledge-based risk decision-making not only by informing the user about the risk but also about the effect of limited knowledge and understanding of the analysed system, on the 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data-work-id="11676719"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11676719/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Estimating Spills Caused by Chemical Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland Using Different Impact Models" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126708/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11676719/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models">Estimating Spills Caused by Chemical Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland Using Different Impact Models</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="ef4ce45d10317a072d9a17fecfa7336a" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37126708,"asset_id":11676719,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126708/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11676719"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item 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container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11676719, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "ef4ce45d10317a072d9a17fecfa7336a" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11676719]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11676719,"title":"Estimating Spills Caused by Chemical Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland Using Different Impact Models","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"Maritime traffic poses various risks in wide range of terms; this paper considers chemical tankers which pose a high environmental risk as they carry large amounts of hazardous materials. In this paper, an outline for a risk analysis for spills from chemical tankers is given, focusing on the Gulf of Finland. The method applied for the analysis determines the risk as a product of probability of occurrence and severity of the consequences. The collision probability is obtained from a time-domain micro simulation of maritime traffic, for which the input is obtained through a detailed analysis of data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), enhanced with data from online ship databases. For the evaluation of the consequence, a collision energy based approach is proposed, linking available deformation energy to the structural capacity of the vessel, to evaluate the probability of hull breach. Also placement of vessels for recovering spilled substances is discussed. Some preliminary results are given for tankers in the GoF in general as well as for chemical tankers specifically. Finally challenges with the proposed method are described.","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":37126708},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11676719/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-26T14:57:19.216-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37126708,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126708/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126708/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126708/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=afsitRKb8LZ3cqxKM8dr7MSJWOuTjFvk-Td69u4~S1e-rfpa6zPdRubR2DzOYBcs7IEHnb9o1j~Mk1HzCncZXACEMpuf8cwJSS51ra7ONo9CT5ZcTV9jcdtng4ICqQtGtR3xRrbBwqd46GW44w6nq2kgLxDB-3MSyp549yP6jhlR38Lv1vKVuObiHW3dBEEtlDDCtxT~bfCney6CayMzoKT0cPqtMXF~aGfqieR6bLKEn7eygExcTEd50KBJj6-Rv6P8Tt1cqi9gBT3-39lXvMoOgN1oCdnDFMftjJmCefBiNykBDaLrqb1ZjIDJc5modKH2KkIzM5-p-Ky25aEXvQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models","translated_slug":"","page_count":8,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":37126708,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126708/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126708/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126708/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=afsitRKb8LZ3cqxKM8dr7MSJWOuTjFvk-Td69u4~S1e-rfpa6zPdRubR2DzOYBcs7IEHnb9o1j~Mk1HzCncZXACEMpuf8cwJSS51ra7ONo9CT5ZcTV9jcdtng4ICqQtGtR3xRrbBwqd46GW44w6nq2kgLxDB-3MSyp549yP6jhlR38Lv1vKVuObiHW3dBEEtlDDCtxT~bfCney6CayMzoKT0cPqtMXF~aGfqieR6bLKEn7eygExcTEd50KBJj6-Rv6P8Tt1cqi9gBT3-39lXvMoOgN1oCdnDFMftjJmCefBiNykBDaLrqb1ZjIDJc5modKH2KkIzM5-p-Ky25aEXvQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"},{"id":37126709,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126709/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126709/download_file","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126709/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=YL~b9sWo4Au5sUwWo4Ggv8yYwTDjM8CtpPie8uG2EA-v7brHBCz~LLFL9FwAerChbb9HuU0sizBKomrTufAuoaO6MuNb5oDRgfOsMtjpzdNJgwXU171Ss34soWbT~Zu3sV-YFwKgGMkZxM0Azke7UHiavdlDBlnaXWrdv-VhD3KbleKsOkOmuklkUQQZbaQv9f86YxnFjSHwmshecqK2m-5U1s-fe1ljfr8nL27I0Ho9fIkoDdwCepTLRWQN-eitBN6ZBNuQIklbo82Vse1nS6ptaE0Yjxk8z4QKjPBCRC8cu3JtzihNQwn19SHg0ViU~mtSDneUMfGmxsYKe8j~ZQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[],"urls":[{"id":4629828,"url":"http://www.merikotka.fi/chembaltic/Files/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11479963"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11479963/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004390/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11479963/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues">Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Reliability Engineering and System Safety</span><span>, Jun 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in th...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="b02c230a6c4612a7376ca6dbb0cd8686" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37004390,"asset_id":11479963,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004390/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11479963"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11479963"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11479963; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11479963]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11479963]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11479963; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11479963']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11479963, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "b02c230a6c4612a7376ca6dbb0cd8686" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11479963]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11479963,"title":"Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":6,"year":2015,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Reliability Engineering and System Safety"},"translated_abstract":"Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11479963/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T02:59:35.194-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":501011,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":281528,"work_id":11479963,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":7811336,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"f***t@gmail.com","display_order":null,"name":"Floris Goerlandt","title":"Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues"}],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37004390,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004390/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004390/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Re.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004390/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis-libre.pdf?1426586472=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DMaritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Re.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=KcSFiyXxcAVnEcjwZ-48wUlEPpsWqhGBzBikMY9-odFWk0WWPVKbqZ2m3-WBDv-W1~9y0kli6ExobSQERRFsB22NNK5UAk3G9Sy0RnYDt~iNkVk3hdvh3kmtvJ1Ves5zHWExHN~Sgc7aVJL6hJk-ZVUoD~JNUDSBDUpX8CEvmO4NqTvWAOaz48nWBE~xyIXrVBd3D5zehRIONnWRy4mgA-L6lkjpfk9YPOFCiDwGl5JMYACv75XVOxLflF4yNVe4ETrszNMhZ1oaGVijINcbuyBqUaevvGDKICJdU1YpYONkxy39h0EttOfC~Lwwj5UTkIjkBXnyXHdiI~OOx2SDnw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues","translated_slug":"","page_count":20,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":501011,"first_name":"Jakub","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Montewka","page_name":"JakubMontewka","domain_name":"aalto-fi","created_at":"2011-06-19T21:48:07.093-07:00","display_name":"Jakub Montewka","url":"https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka"},"attachments":[{"id":37004390,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004390/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004390/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Re.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004390/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis-libre.pdf?1426586472=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DMaritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Re.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=KcSFiyXxcAVnEcjwZ-48wUlEPpsWqhGBzBikMY9-odFWk0WWPVKbqZ2m3-WBDv-W1~9y0kli6ExobSQERRFsB22NNK5UAk3G9Sy0RnYDt~iNkVk3hdvh3kmtvJ1Ves5zHWExHN~Sgc7aVJL6hJk-ZVUoD~JNUDSBDUpX8CEvmO4NqTvWAOaz48nWBE~xyIXrVBd3D5zehRIONnWRy4mgA-L6lkjpfk9YPOFCiDwGl5JMYACv75XVOxLflF4yNVe4ETrszNMhZ1oaGVijINcbuyBqUaevvGDKICJdU1YpYONkxy39h0EttOfC~Lwwj5UTkIjkBXnyXHdiI~OOx2SDnw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":27404,"name":"Risk Assessment \u0026 Risk Management","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Risk_Assessment_and_Risk_Management"},{"id":317626,"name":"Maritime Safety, Pollution and Shipping Management","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Safety_Pollution_and_Shipping_Management"},{"id":607715,"name":"Maritime Transportation","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Transportation"},{"id":780132,"name":"Maritime Transportation Systems Resilience","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Transportation_Systems_Resilience"},{"id":849009,"name":"Maritime Accidents","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Accidents"}],"urls":[{"id":4600070,"url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832015000356"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11480013"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision">A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Safety Science</span><span>, Jul 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk ...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="39987ec7219c6084e5b18c6b0f39d905" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37004435,"asset_id":11480013,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11480013"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11480013"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11480013; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11480013]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11480013]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11480013; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11480013']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11480013, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "39987ec7219c6084e5b18c6b0f39d905" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11480013]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11480013,"title":"A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":7,"year":2015,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Safety Science"},"translated_abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T03:04:00.006-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":501011,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":281550,"work_id":11480013,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":7811336,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"f***t@gmail.com","display_order":null,"name":"Floris Goerlandt","title":"A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision"}],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37004435,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004435/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker-libre.pdf?1426586804=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DA_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=AnhF3fpgDIRA87LKUJWdcr9sDtp1Hldl931es3NFH1~lWQmIg1wjTH1tWX9a7e9xwyeaTL2BkxiRDCiO6R7PxlEL9DHiW~52jNvV9JuTGHILyIwe8i1hp592ZKcYKT-rwgi2nJdNAnaCwq~Qrs8t177e6sSN6QWh3nlGrw4KBHP-PJD6jhO1B9C~eBk-~G-l3Gv2dSUiPNDW9CkARl2zFBO48acjsckN8NnF-MzTPN9LlzbCaBqkXfdnDCmkJRjR3TA2N7TBqg3qYMjqmVv7QJCCkVXfdibzjBhRSE0kT1a22TDwLVwgVzJkyEgdA7knWCvpWFsfmLQlcjaKK15NpQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision","translated_slug":"","page_count":25,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":501011,"first_name":"Jakub","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Montewka","page_name":"JakubMontewka","domain_name":"aalto-fi","created_at":"2011-06-19T21:48:07.093-07:00","display_name":"Jakub Montewka","url":"https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka"},"attachments":[{"id":37004435,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004435/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker-libre.pdf?1426586804=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DA_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=AnhF3fpgDIRA87LKUJWdcr9sDtp1Hldl931es3NFH1~lWQmIg1wjTH1tWX9a7e9xwyeaTL2BkxiRDCiO6R7PxlEL9DHiW~52jNvV9JuTGHILyIwe8i1hp592ZKcYKT-rwgi2nJdNAnaCwq~Qrs8t177e6sSN6QWh3nlGrw4KBHP-PJD6jhO1B9C~eBk-~G-l3Gv2dSUiPNDW9CkARl2zFBO48acjsckN8NnF-MzTPN9LlzbCaBqkXfdnDCmkJRjR3TA2N7TBqg3qYMjqmVv7QJCCkVXfdibzjBhRSE0kT1a22TDwLVwgVzJkyEgdA7knWCvpWFsfmLQlcjaKK15NpQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":28512,"name":"Bayesian Networks","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Networks"},{"id":50711,"name":"Risk Analysis","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Risk_Analysis"},{"id":60676,"name":"Oil Spills in the Marine Environment","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Oil_Spills_in_the_Marine_Environment"},{"id":607715,"name":"Maritime Transportation","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Transportation"},{"id":849009,"name":"Maritime Accidents","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Accidents"},{"id":884101,"name":"Oil Tankers","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Oil_Tankers"}],"urls":[{"id":4600066,"url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753515000375"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491298"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis">Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Ocean Engineering</span><span>, 2012</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probabil...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491298"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491298"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491298; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491298]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491298]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491298; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491298']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491298, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491298]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491298,"title":"Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2012,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Ocean Engineering"},"translated_abstract":"ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:49.123-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[],"slug":"Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis","translated_slug":"","page_count":null,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":73,"name":"Civil Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Civil_Engineering"},{"id":81,"name":"Ocean Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Ocean_Engineering"},{"id":471104,"name":"Maritime Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Engineering"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491296"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk">On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Safety Science</span><span>, 2014</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="6237bb50ca97d5b8d91a4b75ece701ef" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672848,"asset_id":11491296,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491296"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491296"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491296; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491296]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491296]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491296; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491296']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491296, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "6237bb50ca97d5b8d91a4b75ece701ef" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491296]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491296,"title":"On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"A number of authors have discussed reliability and validity of quantitative risk analysis (QRA). These concepts address respectively whether a QRA provides the same risk picture when the analysis is repeated and whether the analysis addresses the right concept. While it has been argued that QRA is not in general reliable, there is little evidence supporting this claim available in the scientific literature. In light of this, this paper studies the reliability of QRA through a case study of ship-ship collision risk. It is found that probability-and indicator based risk perspectives do not necessarily provide a reliable risk picture, neither in terms of numerical accuracy of the risk metrics, nor in terms of rank order of risk metrics in various parts of the system. The results of the case study indicate a low inter-methodological reliability for the selected methods, raising concerns about their validity. This is discussed applying criteria concerning validity of risk analysis and in terms of the validity of the proposed encounter detection mechanisms. Significant uncertainty is found regarding this encounter definition in the selected methods, implying a need for more focus on this important aspect of maritime traffic risk analysis.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2014,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Safety Science","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":46672848},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:46.240-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":46672848,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672848/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash-libre.pdf?1466511951=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DOn_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=Pk9w4Qfb-oj-ETOJ9pkChQMx8qBfYct1YXzdriWfGjd1WYfrsVu3caXKR4iBJflSja-h3QsPUWe6R~Z6zx9Ad18SEM7hHUGFk9cjKkXrKVmd8WGS1bvBG8m9V-~H10mCfgPR-LS0OhikHnGasydGJX5lPHOosYJ06Pj2EvH-f9CggXtJg1BA~9FcMDoAreCOK2is2ekDS-3Ic6Snei-WdRjKJXfbwMMZmu1NqKwLbUJeVO53oNcLsFooeivmK2Vj0nE8pazET5ij1Ds1xTqQBjdcWkQVCKh~fqHccf0y3yjrVeykbBNMyn6PcCKhfl3cLAIS-4t1sNO-y1DtD7Aikw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk","translated_slug":"","page_count":18,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":46672848,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672848/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash-libre.pdf?1466511951=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DOn_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=Pk9w4Qfb-oj-ETOJ9pkChQMx8qBfYct1YXzdriWfGjd1WYfrsVu3caXKR4iBJflSja-h3QsPUWe6R~Z6zx9Ad18SEM7hHUGFk9cjKkXrKVmd8WGS1bvBG8m9V-~H10mCfgPR-LS0OhikHnGasydGJX5lPHOosYJ06Pj2EvH-f9CggXtJg1BA~9FcMDoAreCOK2is2ekDS-3Ic6Snei-WdRjKJXfbwMMZmu1NqKwLbUJeVO53oNcLsFooeivmK2Vj0nE8pazET5ij1Ds1xTqQBjdcWkQVCKh~fqHccf0y3yjrVeykbBNMyn6PcCKhfl3cLAIS-4t1sNO-y1DtD7Aikw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":48,"name":"Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Engineering"},{"id":603594,"name":"Safety Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Safety_Science"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491295"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491295/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672790/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491295/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling">Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Reliability Engineering & System Safety</span><span>, 2011</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a ris...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="ecfa4d4cb59b6b5f4bb7d421fffeac79" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672790,"asset_id":11491295,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672790/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491295"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491295"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491295; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491295]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491295]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491295; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491295']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491295, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "ecfa4d4cb59b6b5f4bb7d421fffeac79" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491295]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491295,"title":"Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. 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The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2011,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Reliability Engineering \u0026 System Safety"},"translated_abstract":"Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491295/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:41.580-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":46672790,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672790/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_20160621-25262-731iyb.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672790/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672790/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_20160621-25262-731iyb-libre.pdf?1466511953=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DTraffic_simulation_based_ship_collision.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=FqNJgTx2Zb039q0YhDMN1N4lkI5cb4LtVCYhHRNGre5pYsqAwx0CbZZmRcWFMSuCMk~mlIWLC3gnYqmRxh3QQ7SbOhgSGUuCRmSXD67DR0sLVwlG3JJ~mJLBwu~OvJEE9hmpRzlDDIUwPS1xizf4D1NKMi0TtIjhS6ah1YEdUWWvX~IfBLwdJDspLbu6h~4QcPJ5KAzr3EmTXDz38F28KZHAmDXjClcUKO13OhfqipYJ-9J5Z-Ffw6ZGrAnAsnYl3oEBtgQPUIvccu76eDAlyUojixSNolT35acV9UcgtLrewtdUWHGJEHYKy8CpPrRvGhyqrojhs61sD7yymmTAfQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling","translated_slug":"","page_count":17,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris 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Model","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Probability_Model"}],"urls":[{"id":4601475,"url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832010002061"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491293"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491293/A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491293/A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network">A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship ...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. Therefore two major issues are addressed by this paper, one is an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships at open sea and another is an estimation of the prior probabilities of the events. The latter are obtained in the course of the numerical simulations, observations and literature survey. Then the model is developed by means of Bayesian Belief Network. Furthermore the sensitivity analysis of the proposed BBN is performed and results are compared withthe available models, thus an initial verification of the results is provided. Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491293"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491293"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491293; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491293]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491293]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491293; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491293']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491293, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491293]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491293,"title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. Therefore two major issues are addressed by this paper, one is an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships at open sea and another is an estimation of the prior probabilities of the events. The latter are obtained in the course of the numerical simulations, observations and literature survey. Then the model is developed by means of Bayesian Belief Network. Furthermore the sensitivity analysis of the proposed BBN is performed and results are compared withthe available models, thus an initial verification of the results is provided. Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2011,"errors":{}}},"translated_abstract":"In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. 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Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491293/A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:39.783-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":6356686,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":31187586,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"d***i@gmail.com","affiliation":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology","display_order":0,"name":"Dra啪en Poli膰","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"},{"id":6356687,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":null,"co_author_invite_id":1098429,"email":"s***g@ntnu.no","display_order":4194304,"name":"Sandro Erceg","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"},{"id":6356688,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":19600,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"a***c@as2con.com","affiliation":"Helsinki University of Technology","display_order":6291456,"name":"Alan Klanac","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"}],"downloadable_attachments":[],"slug":"A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network","translated_slug":"","page_count":null,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":28512,"name":"Bayesian Networks","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Networks"},{"id":663297,"name":"Bayesian Belief Network","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Belief_Network"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); 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This, on one hand meets the growing demands of the society but on another pose certain risks, both on the environment and the aforementioned society. Therefore a holistic approach is required in order to estimate these dynamic risks and keep them under control. As the risk is perceived as a combination of the probability of an accident and its consequences a proper estimation of these two is of high importance. Therefore this paper introduces a novel approach for estimating the consequences of an open sea collision between two ships, with the attention on a RoPax ship being considered a struck ship. Presented model utilizes the Bayesian network and takes into account composition of maritime traffic in the analysed sea area, ship hydrodynamics, stability, crash-worthiness and collision dynamics. 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dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "dc0747723ac060c362614ebaae47e310" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491289]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491289,"title":"Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship鈥搒hip collision","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"A number of authors have proposed probabilistic risk based ship design for ship-ship collision, conditional to the local trading area of a vessel. The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No welljustified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship-ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2013,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Marine Structures","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":46672890},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491289/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:25.173-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":46672890,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672890/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672890/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672890/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q-libre.pdf?1466511947=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DImpact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=Ih-HieisxKMZD-zHwBCF00kPa5-~5AWUOUV8NP7QgmimlfZbL4QPCliOGDsow2bfZNgpqh9lluGDQIdXBCisyyJSjjCmo0gDFXuDV2CqTZ2bU-5dp7sj3xyx8m-p7oqpnKEe-w4DooCiOYgnXVkXt-F8Y5uUt5ep6~KjBJjfWz0moNkI93dAcXqXf-2VxskcXOzRe1jVz7g6zplZBrXuXrWzoQDLgF-PwjNAqRjSk2Sw1LjXRxdAc09rkct9CuIfpDWXyTLpF3bis9sM1eScigdGD72cHR6-RPmfEhXLxVLlwuFYTtd1X4uROme0YNTyFJ5-Eqvq3PnADA39aGFeLQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision","translated_slug":"","page_count":27,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":46672890,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672890/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672890/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672890/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q-libre.pdf?1466511947=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DImpact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=Ih-HieisxKMZD-zHwBCF00kPa5-~5AWUOUV8NP7QgmimlfZbL4QPCliOGDsow2bfZNgpqh9lluGDQIdXBCisyyJSjjCmo0gDFXuDV2CqTZ2bU-5dp7sj3xyx8m-p7oqpnKEe-w4DooCiOYgnXVkXt-F8Y5uUt5ep6~KjBJjfWz0moNkI93dAcXqXf-2VxskcXOzRe1jVz7g6zplZBrXuXrWzoQDLgF-PwjNAqRjSk2Sw1LjXRxdAc09rkct9CuIfpDWXyTLpF3bis9sM1eScigdGD72cHR6-RPmfEhXLxVLlwuFYTtd1X4uROme0YNTyFJ5-Eqvq3PnADA39aGFeLQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":73,"name":"Civil Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Civil_Engineering"},{"id":120330,"name":"Marine Structures","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Marine_Structures"},{"id":471104,"name":"Maritime Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Engineering"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); 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The criterion is called the minimum distance to collision (MDTC) and reflects the shortest distance between two ships at which they are still able to take evasive actions to avoid a collision. The new criterion is evaluated by means of a series of simulations using a ship motion model for a range of ship types, courses and speeds and thus its dynamic nature is recognised. 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Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Civil_Engineering"},{"id":81,"name":"Ocean Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Ocean_Engineering"},{"id":471104,"name":"Maritime Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Engineering"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11482499"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11482499/Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_prediction_of_a_ship_performance_in_dynamic_ice"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37005834/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11482499/Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_prediction_of_a_ship_performance_in_dynamic_ice">Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Cold Regions Science and Technology</span><span>, Apr 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ic...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ice is crucial. The literature describes numerical and semi-empirical models that characterize ship speed in ice. These however often fail to account for the joint effect of the ice conditions on ship's speed. Moreover, they omit the effect of ice compression. The latter, when combined with the presence of ridges, can significantly limit the capabilities of an ice-strengthened ship, and potentially bring her to a halt, even if the actual ice conditions are within the design range for the given ship. <br /> <br />This paper introduces two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is likely to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. <br /> <br />To develop the models, two full-scale datasets were utilized. First, the dataset about the performance of a selected ship in ice is acquired from the automatic identification system. Second, the dataset containing numerical description of the ice field is obtained from a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute. <br /> <br />The collected datasets describe a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. <br /> <br />The relations between ship performance and the ice conditions were established using Bayesian networks and selected learning algorithms. <br /> <br />The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="e0216ad4a0059376601b433c70db36c7" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37005834,"asset_id":11482499,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37005834/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11482499"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11482499"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11482499; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11482499]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11482499]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11482499; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11482499']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11482499, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "e0216ad4a0059376601b433c70db36c7" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11482499]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11482499,"title":"Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ice is crucial. The literature describes numerical and semi-empirical models that characterize ship speed in ice. These however often fail to account for the joint effect of the ice conditions on ship's speed. Moreover, they omit the effect of ice compression. The latter, when combined with the presence of ridges, can significantly limit the capabilities of an ice-strengthened ship, and potentially bring her to a halt, even if the actual ice conditions are within the design range for the given ship.\r\n\r\nThis paper introduces two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is likely to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered.\r\n\r\nTo develop the models, two full-scale datasets were utilized. First, the dataset about the performance of a selected ship in ice is acquired from the automatic identification system. Second, the dataset containing numerical description of the ice field is obtained from a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute.\r\n\r\nThe collected datasets describe a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space.\r\n\r\nThe relations between ship performance and the ice conditions were established using Bayesian networks and selected learning algorithms.\r\n\r\nThe obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":4,"year":2015,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology"},"translated_abstract":"For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ice is crucial. The literature describes numerical and semi-empirical models that characterize ship speed in ice. These however often fail to account for the joint effect of the ice conditions on ship's speed. Moreover, they omit the effect of ice compression. The latter, when combined with the presence of ridges, can significantly limit the capabilities of an ice-strengthened ship, and potentially bring her to a halt, even if the actual ice conditions are within the design range for the given ship.\r\n\r\nThis paper introduces two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is likely to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered.\r\n\r\nTo develop the models, two full-scale datasets were utilized. First, the dataset about the performance of a selected ship in ice is acquired from the automatic identification system. Second, the dataset containing numerical description of the ice field is obtained from a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute.\r\n\r\nThe collected datasets describe a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space.\r\n\r\nThe relations between ship performance and the ice conditions were established using Bayesian networks and selected learning algorithms.\r\n\r\nThe obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11482499/Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_prediction_of_a_ship_performance_in_dynamic_ice","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T05:01:18.011-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":501011,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":282397,"work_id":11482499,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":null,"co_author_invite_id":116627,"email":"m***u@fmi.fi","display_order":null,"name":"Mikko Lensu","title":"Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice"},{"id":282398,"work_id":11482499,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":null,"co_author_invite_id":116628,"email":"p***a@aalto.fi","display_order":null,"name":"Pentti Kujala","title":"Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice"},{"id":282396,"work_id":11482499,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":7811336,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"f***t@gmail.com","display_order":null,"name":"Floris Goerlandt","title":"Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice"}],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37005834,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37005834/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Towards_probabilistic_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37005834/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_pre.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37005834/Towards_probabilistic_models-libre.pdf?1426593716=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DTowards_probabilistic_models_for_the_pre.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=PTg-RHGKAPVa~hYiGvL1iEMVeGTAgcD6UysRCdd9hlkavZlFOWSdgSJF6~arOngdBRX7dpUEX2IraoJjuV66pvz1tdbaad~17Ch0vJbY6BWkmCyc6iRErJt8FZpmOSHgm12~qXEquReZ1BO9NNGCkqD9kiDzcytCTUQo23HQGB8HCB-kMMPAJQXoEU9ztEBLfw9jkgkXRMeeyjBVTbUYpH5bSg~q65kYlftbb9UgS76h8LrtNyBHTPPaev-Fe~055Em7CCyac99PiZxnxgrlBVBzQz-0tT4dIxmwl5GXoxLbumFfz6xw14sPsflbBnUlJzDT9vk2BCrmpGavzBOFUg__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_prediction_of_a_ship_performance_in_dynamic_ice","translated_slug":"","page_count":15,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":501011,"first_name":"Jakub","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Montewka","page_name":"JakubMontewka","domain_name":"aalto-fi","created_at":"2011-06-19T21:48:07.093-07:00","display_name":"Jakub Montewka","url":"https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka"},"attachments":[{"id":37005834,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37005834/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Towards_probabilistic_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37005834/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_pre.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37005834/Towards_probabilistic_models-libre.pdf?1426593716=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DTowards_probabilistic_models_for_the_pre.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=PTg-RHGKAPVa~hYiGvL1iEMVeGTAgcD6UysRCdd9hlkavZlFOWSdgSJF6~arOngdBRX7dpUEX2IraoJjuV66pvz1tdbaad~17Ch0vJbY6BWkmCyc6iRErJt8FZpmOSHgm12~qXEquReZ1BO9NNGCkqD9kiDzcytCTUQo23HQGB8HCB-kMMPAJQXoEU9ztEBLfw9jkgkXRMeeyjBVTbUYpH5bSg~q65kYlftbb9UgS76h8LrtNyBHTPPaev-Fe~055Em7CCyac99PiZxnxgrlBVBzQz-0tT4dIxmwl5GXoxLbumFfz6xw14sPsflbBnUlJzDT9vk2BCrmpGavzBOFUg__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":2008,"name":"Machine Learning","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Machine_Learning"},{"id":41239,"name":"Bayesian statistics \u0026 modelling","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_statistics_and_modelling"},{"id":123413,"name":"Maritime Safety","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Safety"},{"id":317626,"name":"Maritime Safety, Pollution and Shipping Management","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Safety_Pollution_and_Shipping_Management"},{"id":607715,"name":"Maritime Transportation","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Transportation"}],"urls":[{"id":4600380,"url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X14002262"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> </div><div class="profile--tab_content_container js-tab-pane tab-pane" data-section-id="2744082" id="papers"><div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11676720"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11676720/A_RISK_FRAMEWORK_FOR_MARITIME_TRANSPORTATION_SYSTEMS"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of A RISK FRAMEWORK FOR MARITIME TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126711/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11676720/A_RISK_FRAMEWORK_FOR_MARITIME_TRANSPORTATION_SYSTEMS">A RISK FRAMEWORK FOR MARITIME TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="792de6f15dae74925d04e9b27dfa5377" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37126711,"asset_id":11676720,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126711/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11676720"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11676720"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11676720; 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For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be claimed of being reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the formal definition of risk, which is adopted. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. It is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Network, which effectively propagate the knowledge and understanding of the analysed system through the model. We expect this approach to assist the knowledge-based risk decision-making not only by informing the user about the risk but also about the effect of limited knowledge and understanding of the analysed system, on the 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WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11676719,"title":"Estimating Spills Caused by Chemical Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland Using Different Impact Models","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"Maritime traffic poses various risks in wide range of terms; this paper considers chemical tankers which pose a high environmental risk as they carry large amounts of hazardous materials. In this paper, an outline for a risk analysis for spills from chemical tankers is given, focusing on the Gulf of Finland. The method applied for the analysis determines the risk as a product of probability of occurrence and severity of the consequences. The collision probability is obtained from a time-domain micro simulation of maritime traffic, for which the input is obtained through a detailed analysis of data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), enhanced with data from online ship databases. For the evaluation of the consequence, a collision energy based approach is proposed, linking available deformation energy to the structural capacity of the vessel, to evaluate the probability of hull breach. Also placement of vessels for recovering spilled substances is discussed. Some preliminary results are given for tankers in the GoF in general as well as for chemical tankers specifically. Finally challenges with the proposed method are described.","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":37126708},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11676719/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-26T14:57:19.216-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37126708,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126708/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126708/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126708/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=afsitRKb8LZ3cqxKM8dr7MSJWOuTjFvk-Td69u4~S1e-rfpa6zPdRubR2DzOYBcs7IEHnb9o1j~Mk1HzCncZXACEMpuf8cwJSS51ra7ONo9CT5ZcTV9jcdtng4ICqQtGtR3xRrbBwqd46GW44w6nq2kgLxDB-3MSyp549yP6jhlR38Lv1vKVuObiHW3dBEEtlDDCtxT~bfCney6CayMzoKT0cPqtMXF~aGfqieR6bLKEn7eygExcTEd50KBJj6-Rv6P8Tt1cqi9gBT3-39lXvMoOgN1oCdnDFMftjJmCefBiNykBDaLrqb1ZjIDJc5modKH2KkIzM5-p-Ky25aEXvQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_Using_Different_Impact_Models","translated_slug":"","page_count":8,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":37126708,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126708/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126708/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126708/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=afsitRKb8LZ3cqxKM8dr7MSJWOuTjFvk-Td69u4~S1e-rfpa6zPdRubR2DzOYBcs7IEHnb9o1j~Mk1HzCncZXACEMpuf8cwJSS51ra7ONo9CT5ZcTV9jcdtng4ICqQtGtR3xRrbBwqd46GW44w6nq2kgLxDB-3MSyp549yP6jhlR38Lv1vKVuObiHW3dBEEtlDDCtxT~bfCney6CayMzoKT0cPqtMXF~aGfqieR6bLKEn7eygExcTEd50KBJj6-Rv6P8Tt1cqi9gBT3-39lXvMoOgN1oCdnDFMftjJmCefBiNykBDaLrqb1ZjIDJc5modKH2KkIzM5-p-Ky25aEXvQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"},{"id":37126709,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37126709/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37126709/download_file","bulk_download_file_name":"Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37126709/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models-libre.pdf?1427407202=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DEstimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tan.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=YL~b9sWo4Au5sUwWo4Ggv8yYwTDjM8CtpPie8uG2EA-v7brHBCz~LLFL9FwAerChbb9HuU0sizBKomrTufAuoaO6MuNb5oDRgfOsMtjpzdNJgwXU171Ss34soWbT~Zu3sV-YFwKgGMkZxM0Azke7UHiavdlDBlnaXWrdv-VhD3KbleKsOkOmuklkUQQZbaQv9f86YxnFjSHwmshecqK2m-5U1s-fe1ljfr8nL27I0Ho9fIkoDdwCepTLRWQN-eitBN6ZBNuQIklbo82Vse1nS6ptaE0Yjxk8z4QKjPBCRC8cu3JtzihNQwn19SHg0ViU~mtSDneUMfGmxsYKe8j~ZQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[],"urls":[{"id":4629828,"url":"http://www.merikotka.fi/chembaltic/Files/Estimating_Spills_Caused_by_Chemical_Tanker_Collisions_in_the_Gulf_of_Finland_using_different_impact_models.pdf"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11479963"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11479963/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004390/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11479963/Maritime_transportation_risk_analysis_Review_and_analysis_in_light_of_some_foundational_issues">Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Reliability Engineering and System Safety</span><span>, Jun 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in th...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="b02c230a6c4612a7376ca6dbb0cd8686" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37004390,"asset_id":11479963,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004390/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11479963"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11479963"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11479963; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11479963]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11479963]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11479963; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11479963']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11479963, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "b02c230a6c4612a7376ca6dbb0cd8686" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11479963]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11479963,"title":"Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. 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$(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11480013"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision">A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Safety Science</span><span>, Jul 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk ...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="39987ec7219c6084e5b18c6b0f39d905" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37004435,"asset_id":11480013,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11480013"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11480013"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11480013; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11480013]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11480013]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11480013; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11480013']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11480013, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "39987ec7219c6084e5b18c6b0f39d905" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11480013]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11480013,"title":"A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. 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The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":7,"year":2015,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Safety Science"},"translated_abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. 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The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11480013/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T03:04:00.006-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":501011,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":281550,"work_id":11480013,"tagging_user_id":501011,"tagged_user_id":7811336,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"f***t@gmail.com","display_order":null,"name":"Floris Goerlandt","title":"A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship鈥搒hip collision"}],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":37004435,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004435/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker-libre.pdf?1426586804=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DA_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=AnhF3fpgDIRA87LKUJWdcr9sDtp1Hldl931es3NFH1~lWQmIg1wjTH1tWX9a7e9xwyeaTL2BkxiRDCiO6R7PxlEL9DHiW~52jNvV9JuTGHILyIwe8i1hp592ZKcYKT-rwgi2nJdNAnaCwq~Qrs8t177e6sSN6QWh3nlGrw4KBHP-PJD6jhO1B9C~eBk-~G-l3Gv2dSUiPNDW9CkARl2zFBO48acjsckN8NnF-MzTPN9LlzbCaBqkXfdnDCmkJRjR3TA2N7TBqg3qYMjqmVv7QJCCkVXfdibzjBhRSE0kT1a22TDwLVwgVzJkyEgdA7knWCvpWFsfmLQlcjaKK15NpQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transportation_systems_A_case_study_for_oil_spill_from_tankers_in_a_ship_ship_collision","translated_slug":"","page_count":25,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":501011,"first_name":"Jakub","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Montewka","page_name":"JakubMontewka","domain_name":"aalto-fi","created_at":"2011-06-19T21:48:07.093-07:00","display_name":"Jakub Montewka","url":"https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka"},"attachments":[{"id":37004435,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37004435/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37004435/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/37004435/A_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritime_transprotation_-_tanker-libre.pdf?1426586804=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DA_framework_for_risk_analysis_of_maritim.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=AnhF3fpgDIRA87LKUJWdcr9sDtp1Hldl931es3NFH1~lWQmIg1wjTH1tWX9a7e9xwyeaTL2BkxiRDCiO6R7PxlEL9DHiW~52jNvV9JuTGHILyIwe8i1hp592ZKcYKT-rwgi2nJdNAnaCwq~Qrs8t177e6sSN6QWh3nlGrw4KBHP-PJD6jhO1B9C~eBk-~G-l3Gv2dSUiPNDW9CkARl2zFBO48acjsckN8NnF-MzTPN9LlzbCaBqkXfdnDCmkJRjR3TA2N7TBqg3qYMjqmVv7QJCCkVXfdibzjBhRSE0kT1a22TDwLVwgVzJkyEgdA7knWCvpWFsfmLQlcjaKK15NpQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":28512,"name":"Bayesian Networks","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Networks"},{"id":50711,"name":"Risk Analysis","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Risk_Analysis"},{"id":60676,"name":"Oil Spills in the Marine Environment","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Oil_Spills_in_the_Marine_Environment"},{"id":607715,"name":"Maritime Transportation","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Transportation"},{"id":849009,"name":"Maritime Accidents","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Accidents"},{"id":884101,"name":"Oil Tankers","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Oil_Tankers"}],"urls":[{"id":4600066,"url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753515000375"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491298"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis">Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Ocean Engineering</span><span>, 2012</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probabil...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491298"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491298"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491298; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491298]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491298]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491298; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491298']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491298, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491298]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491298,"title":"Influence of impact scenario models on collision risk analysis","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2012,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Ocean Engineering"},"translated_abstract":"ABSTRACT An important element in assessing the consequences in a tanker collision is the probability of breaching an oil cargo tank. It is well recognized that the dynamic parameters at the moment of impact significantly affect the deformation energy. Assumptions regarding dynamic parameters at the moment of impact are nevertheless little discussed in context of collision risk analysis.The available impact scenario models are analyzed using a system risk approach. Comparison of impact scenario models from literature is performed with a risk analysis algorithm emphasizing on oil tanker collisions. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in the risk analysis algorithm for each impact scenario model. Only the impact scenario module is changed while other modules of the algorithm (encounter scenario generation, determination of deformation energy and structural hull capacity) are kept the same.Analysis reveals important differences in results of risk analysis when performed with different assumptions for the impact scenario. Moreover, in the discussion inherent conceptual limitations of the impact scenario models in the system risk framework are revealed. It is concluded that using more accurate collision energy and/or structural capacity models for purposes of maritime traffic risk analysis is currently not worthwhile, as the uncertainty regarding impact scenario is overwhelming.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491298/Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:49.123-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[],"slug":"Influence_of_impact_scenario_models_on_collision_risk_analysis","translated_slug":"","page_count":null,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":73,"name":"Civil Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Civil_Engineering"},{"id":81,"name":"Ocean Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Ocean_Engineering"},{"id":471104,"name":"Maritime Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Engineering"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491296"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk">On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Safety Science</span><span>, 2014</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="6237bb50ca97d5b8d91a4b75ece701ef" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672848,"asset_id":11491296,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491296"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491296"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491296; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491296]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491296]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491296; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491296']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491296, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "6237bb50ca97d5b8d91a4b75ece701ef" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491296]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491296,"title":"On the reliability and validity of ship鈥搒hip collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"A number of authors have discussed reliability and validity of quantitative risk analysis (QRA). These concepts address respectively whether a QRA provides the same risk picture when the analysis is repeated and whether the analysis addresses the right concept. While it has been argued that QRA is not in general reliable, there is little evidence supporting this claim available in the scientific literature. In light of this, this paper studies the reliability of QRA through a case study of ship-ship collision risk. It is found that probability-and indicator based risk perspectives do not necessarily provide a reliable risk picture, neither in terms of numerical accuracy of the risk metrics, nor in terms of rank order of risk metrics in various parts of the system. The results of the case study indicate a low inter-methodological reliability for the selected methods, raising concerns about their validity. This is discussed applying criteria concerning validity of risk analysis and in terms of the validity of the proposed encounter detection mechanisms. Significant uncertainty is found regarding this encounter definition in the selected methods, implying a need for more focus on this important aspect of maritime traffic risk analysis.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2014,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Safety Science","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":46672848},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491296/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:46.240-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":46672848,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672848/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash-libre.pdf?1466511951=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DOn_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=Pk9w4Qfb-oj-ETOJ9pkChQMx8qBfYct1YXzdriWfGjd1WYfrsVu3caXKR4iBJflSja-h3QsPUWe6R~Z6zx9Ad18SEM7hHUGFk9cjKkXrKVmd8WGS1bvBG8m9V-~H10mCfgPR-LS0OhikHnGasydGJX5lPHOosYJ06Pj2EvH-f9CggXtJg1BA~9FcMDoAreCOK2is2ekDS-3Ic6Snei-WdRjKJXfbwMMZmu1NqKwLbUJeVO53oNcLsFooeivmK2Vj0nE8pazET5ij1Ds1xTqQBjdcWkQVCKh~fqHccf0y3yjrVeykbBNMyn6PcCKhfl3cLAIS-4t1sNO-y1DtD7Aikw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship_ship_collision_risk_analysis_in_light_of_different_perspectives_on_risk","translated_slug":"","page_count":18,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":46672848,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672848/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672848/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672848/On_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ships20160621-32565-panash-libre.pdf?1466511951=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DOn_the_reliability_and_validity_of_ship.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770312\u0026Signature=Pk9w4Qfb-oj-ETOJ9pkChQMx8qBfYct1YXzdriWfGjd1WYfrsVu3caXKR4iBJflSja-h3QsPUWe6R~Z6zx9Ad18SEM7hHUGFk9cjKkXrKVmd8WGS1bvBG8m9V-~H10mCfgPR-LS0OhikHnGasydGJX5lPHOosYJ06Pj2EvH-f9CggXtJg1BA~9FcMDoAreCOK2is2ekDS-3Ic6Snei-WdRjKJXfbwMMZmu1NqKwLbUJeVO53oNcLsFooeivmK2Vj0nE8pazET5ij1Ds1xTqQBjdcWkQVCKh~fqHccf0y3yjrVeykbBNMyn6PcCKhfl3cLAIS-4t1sNO-y1DtD7Aikw__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":48,"name":"Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Engineering"},{"id":603594,"name":"Safety Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Safety_Science"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491295"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491295/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672790/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491295/Traffic_simulation_based_ship_collision_probability_modeling">Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Reliability Engineering & System Safety</span><span>, 2011</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a ris...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="ecfa4d4cb59b6b5f4bb7d421fffeac79" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672790,"asset_id":11491295,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672790/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491295"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491295"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491295; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491295]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491295]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491295; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491295']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491295, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "ecfa4d4cb59b6b5f4bb7d421fffeac79" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491295]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491295,"title":"Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. 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class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491293/A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network">A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship ...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. Therefore two major issues are addressed by this paper, one is an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships at open sea and another is an estimation of the prior probabilities of the events. The latter are obtained in the course of the numerical simulations, observations and literature survey. Then the model is developed by means of Bayesian Belief Network. Furthermore the sensitivity analysis of the proposed BBN is performed and results are compared withthe available models, thus an initial verification of the results is provided. Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491293"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491293"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491293; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491293]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11491293]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491293; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11491293']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11491293, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11491293]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11491293,"title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. Therefore two major issues are addressed by this paper, one is an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships at open sea and another is an estimation of the prior probabilities of the events. The latter are obtained in the course of the numerical simulations, observations and literature survey. Then the model is developed by means of Bayesian Belief Network. Furthermore the sensitivity analysis of the proposed BBN is performed and results are compared withthe available models, thus an initial verification of the results is provided. Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2011,"errors":{}}},"translated_abstract":"In this paper, an attempt is made to define a new, proactive model for estimation the ship- ship collision consequences, assuming a RoPax as a struck ship. 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Finally the probability of ship loss and human loss given a collision is estimated and the obtained results are discussed.","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491293/A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:39.783-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[{"id":6356686,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":31187586,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"d***i@gmail.com","affiliation":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology","display_order":0,"name":"Dra啪en Poli膰","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"},{"id":6356687,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":null,"co_author_invite_id":1098429,"email":"s***g@ntnu.no","display_order":4194304,"name":"Sandro Erceg","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"},{"id":6356688,"work_id":11491293,"tagging_user_id":7811336,"tagged_user_id":19600,"co_author_invite_id":null,"email":"a***c@as2con.com","affiliation":"Helsinki University of Technology","display_order":6291456,"name":"Alan Klanac","title":"A model for consequence evaluation of ship-ship collision based on Bayesian Belief Network"}],"downloadable_attachments":[],"slug":"A_model_for_consequence_evaluation_of_ship_ship_collision_based_on_Bayesian_Belief_Network","translated_slug":"","page_count":null,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":28512,"name":"Bayesian Networks","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Networks"},{"id":663297,"name":"Bayesian Belief Network","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Bayesian_Belief_Network"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); 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This, on one hand meets the growing demands of the society but on another pose certain risks, both on the environment and the aforementioned society. Therefore a holistic approach is required in order to estimate these dynamic risks and keep them under control. As the risk is perceived as a combination of the probability of an accident and its consequences a proper estimation of these two is of high importance. Therefore this paper introduces a novel approach for estimating the consequences of an open sea collision between two ships, with the attention on a RoPax ship being considered a struck ship. Presented model utilizes the Bayesian network and takes into account composition of maritime traffic in the analysed sea area, ship hydrodynamics, stability, crash-worthiness and collision dynamics. 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$(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491289"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491289/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship鈥搒hip collision" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672890/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491289/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision">Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship鈥搒hip collision</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Marine Structures</span><span>, 2013</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="dc0747723ac060c362614ebaae47e310" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672890,"asset_id":11491289,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672890/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491289"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491289"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491289; 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The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No welljustified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship-ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":2013,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"Marine Structures","grobid_abstract_attachment_id":46672890},"translated_abstract":null,"internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/11491289/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2015-03-17T11:51:25.173-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":7811336,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[{"id":46672890,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672890/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672890/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672890/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q-libre.pdf?1466511947=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DImpact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=Ih-HieisxKMZD-zHwBCF00kPa5-~5AWUOUV8NP7QgmimlfZbL4QPCliOGDsow2bfZNgpqh9lluGDQIdXBCisyyJSjjCmo0gDFXuDV2CqTZ2bU-5dp7sj3xyx8m-p7oqpnKEe-w4DooCiOYgnXVkXt-F8Y5uUt5ep6~KjBJjfWz0moNkI93dAcXqXf-2VxskcXOzRe1jVz7g6zplZBrXuXrWzoQDLgF-PwjNAqRjSk2Sw1LjXRxdAc09rkct9CuIfpDWXyTLpF3bis9sM1eScigdGD72cHR6-RPmfEhXLxVLlwuFYTtd1X4uROme0YNTyFJ5-Eqvq3PnADA39aGFeLQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"slug":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic_risk_based_design_for_ship_ship_collision","translated_slug":"","page_count":27,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","owner":{"id":7811336,"first_name":"Floris","middle_initials":null,"last_name":"Goerlandt","page_name":"FlorisGoerlandt","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2013-12-25T03:49:53.853-08:00","display_name":"Floris Goerlandt","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt"},"attachments":[{"id":46672890,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672890/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672890/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46672890/Impact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic20160621-24679-r8fc8q-libre.pdf?1466511947=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DImpact_scenario_models_for_probabilistic.pdf\u0026Expires=1732770313\u0026Signature=Ih-HieisxKMZD-zHwBCF00kPa5-~5AWUOUV8NP7QgmimlfZbL4QPCliOGDsow2bfZNgpqh9lluGDQIdXBCisyyJSjjCmo0gDFXuDV2CqTZ2bU-5dp7sj3xyx8m-p7oqpnKEe-w4DooCiOYgnXVkXt-F8Y5uUt5ep6~KjBJjfWz0moNkI93dAcXqXf-2VxskcXOzRe1jVz7g6zplZBrXuXrWzoQDLgF-PwjNAqRjSk2Sw1LjXRxdAc09rkct9CuIfpDWXyTLpF3bis9sM1eScigdGD72cHR6-RPmfEhXLxVLlwuFYTtd1X4uROme0YNTyFJ5-Eqvq3PnADA39aGFeLQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":73,"name":"Civil Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Civil_Engineering"},{"id":120330,"name":"Marine Structures","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Marine_Structures"},{"id":471104,"name":"Maritime Engineering","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Maritime_Engineering"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="11491285"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491285/Determination_of_collision_criteria_and_causation_factors_appropriate_to_a_model_for_estimating_the_probability_of_maritime_accidents"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/46672715/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11491285/Determination_of_collision_criteria_and_causation_factors_appropriate_to_a_model_for_estimating_the_probability_of_maritime_accidents">Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a>, <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/PenttiKujala">Pentti Kujala</a>, and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Ocean Engineering</span><span>, 2012</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="521f3c81ca78692ccae92755115587e3" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":46672715,"asset_id":11491285,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/46672715/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11491285"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11491285"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11491285; 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The criterion is called the minimum distance to collision (MDTC) and reflects the shortest distance between two ships at which they are still able to take evasive actions to avoid a collision. The new criterion is evaluated by means of a series of simulations using a ship motion model for a range of ship types, courses and speeds and thus its dynamic nature is recognised. 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src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/37005834/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/11482499/Towards_probabilistic_models_for_the_prediction_of_a_ship_performance_in_dynamic_ice">Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--coauthors"><span>by </span><span><a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://aalto-fi.academia.edu/JakubMontewka">Jakub Montewka</a> and <a class="" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-authors" href="https://independent.academia.edu/FlorisGoerlandt">Floris Goerlandt</a></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Cold Regions Science and Technology</span><span>, Apr 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ic...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ice is crucial. The literature describes numerical and semi-empirical models that characterize ship speed in ice. These however often fail to account for the joint effect of the ice conditions on ship's speed. Moreover, they omit the effect of ice compression. The latter, when combined with the presence of ridges, can significantly limit the capabilities of an ice-strengthened ship, and potentially bring her to a halt, even if the actual ice conditions are within the design range for the given ship. <br /> <br />This paper introduces two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is likely to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. <br /> <br />To develop the models, two full-scale datasets were utilized. First, the dataset about the performance of a selected ship in ice is acquired from the automatic identification system. Second, the dataset containing numerical description of the ice field is obtained from a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute. <br /> <br />The collected datasets describe a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. <br /> <br />The relations between ship performance and the ice conditions were established using Bayesian networks and selected learning algorithms. <br /> <br />The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="e0216ad4a0059376601b433c70db36c7" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":37005834,"asset_id":11482499,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/37005834/download_file?st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczMjc2NjcxMyw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="11482499"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="11482499"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11482499; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11482499]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=11482499]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 11482499; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='11482499']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 11482499, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "e0216ad4a0059376601b433c70db36c7" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=11482499]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":11482499,"title":"Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"For safe and efficient exploitation of ice-covered waters, knowledge about ship performance in ice is crucial. 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