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Szenario einer weichen Landung: Schlägt bald die Stunde der Nebenwerte?
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Herr"; } /* Update custom field with new value */ fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.uid, /* replace correct form ID and custom field ID */ form_id: config.salutationForm.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify({ salutation_text_TEM: salutation_text_TEM }) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM updated to ${salutation_text_TEM}`); } if (window.localStorage) { window.localStorage.setItem(`nzz-salutation`, data.uid); } }).catch(e => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM error: ${e}`); } }).finally(() => { if (forceReload) { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## pianoUpdateSalutation forceReload, because of source PIANOID'); } window.location.reload(); } });}; ((bT, clientCountryPreference, config) => { let tags = []; if 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window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://id-eu.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://buy-eu.piano.io/api/v3']); } else { window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://sandbox.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://sandbox.tinypass.com/api/v3']); } window.tp.push(['setUseTinypassAccounts', false]); window.tp.push(['setUsePianoIdUserProvider', true]); /* gift article */ try { const urlParams = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search); if (urlParams.has('gift_created') && new Date(urlParams.get('gift_created') / 1 * 1000) > Date.now() - 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) { window.tp.push(['setCustomVariable', 'shared_article_valid', 'true']); } } catch (e) { console.log(e); } /* Execute when the page is first loaded */ if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c set tags', 'background: yellow;color:black'); } tags.forEach(function (tag) { window.tp.push(tag); }); window.tp.push(['init', function () { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c init piano', 'background: 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{ if (field.field_name === "account_salutation") { salutationField = field; } } } let forceReload = false; if (callbackData.source == "PIANOID") { forceReload = true; } pianoUpdateSalutation(config, data, salutationField, forceReload); }, formName: 'salutation_form' }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'checkoutCustomEvent', event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent'); } const params = JSON.parse(event.params.params); if (event.eventName === 'purchaseCustom' && params.pmId == 'inbas') { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent: Invoice payments'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CEEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CEEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }); } else if (event.eventName == 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<!----></span> <!----></button> <div id="adnz_header_1"></div></div></div></div></div> <!----> </div></div> <!----></div> <div id="page" class="nzz-page-transition"><!----> <div><div data-resor="false" class="article"><section data-vars-danzz-article="" data-nzz-tid="article" data-nzz-referrer="articleLink" data-nzz-article="true" class="container container--article layout--regular"><div id="id-doc-1hlio16rq0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="header" data-vars-danzz-first-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="headline"><div class="headline__highlight"><div class="headline__inner headline__inner--highlight"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--content teaser__flag--colored"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--default teaser__flag--default-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Analyse </span> <!----></div></div> <h1 class="headline__title"><!----> <span>Szenario «weiche Landung»: Schlägt bald die Stunde der Small Caps?</span></h1></div></div> <div class="headline__inner"><p class="headline__lead">Seit vielen Jahren werden Aktien von kleinen und mittelgrossen Unternehmen sowohl in den USA als auch in Europa verschmäht. Die Gelegenheit könnte jetzt günstig sein – wenn einige Faktoren mitspielen.</p> <div class="progressbar__wrapper"><div class="progressbar"><div class="progressbar__line"><div class="progressbar__line--fill" style="transform:translateX(-100%);"></div></div></div></div> <div class="headline__meta"><!----> <div class="metainfo metainfo--content"><!----> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author"><a target="_blank" href="mailto:henning.hoelder@themarket.ch">Henning Hölder</a> ✉</span> <!----> <!----> <!----> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date"><time datetime="2024-02-02T03:21:34.500Z"> 02.02.2024, 04.21 Uhr </time> <!----></span></div> <div class="headline__meta-extra"><div class="actionbar actionbar--header"><!----> <div class="popover__placeholder"><div><div class="actionbar__item"><button class="actionbar__button button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 16" class="svg-icon" style="width:16px;height:18px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M17.477 7.5C17.148 3.747 13.165.5 9 .5 4.834.5.85 3.747.52 7.5M2.5 8.5h-2v7h2v-7zM17.5 8.5h-2v7h2v-7z" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="1" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M7.5 9.04v5.92L11.2 12 7.5 9.04z" _fill="#000" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Hören</span></button></div></div> <div class="popover popover--header hidden"><div class="popover__container popover--header"><button class="button popover__close"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 14 14" class="button popover__close-icon svg-icon svg-fill" style="width:12px;height:12px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M1 1l12 12M1 13L13 1" _stroke="#000"/></svg></button> <div class="popover__content"><div class="popover__title">Neue Vorlese-Stimmen</div> <div class="popover__desc">Eine verbesserte Vorlesefunktion steht zur Verfügung. Probieren Sie es aus!</div></div></div></div></div> <!----> <div class="actionbar__item actionbar__item--print"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 16" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:16px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M3.5.5v4h11v-4h-11z" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="1" d="M3.5 12.5H1.8a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3-1.3V5.8a1.3 1.3 0 011.3-1.3h14.4a1.3 1.3 0 011.3 1.3v5.4a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3 1.3h-1.7" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="2" d="M12.5 8.5h-7a2 2 0 00-2 2v3a2 2 0 002 2h7a2 2 0 002-2v-3a2 2 0 00-2-2z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Drucken</span></div></div> <div class="actionbar__item share" style="position:relative;"><div class="contextmenu-closed"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:18px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M10.48 1.18l6.795 6.584-6.794 6.353v-3.796l-.513.013c-2.052.051-3.758.423-5.238 1.2-1.471.773-2.684 1.927-3.785 3.49.565-2.854 1.539-5.138 3.005-6.82 1.467-1.683 3.456-2.8 6.116-3.263l.414-.072V1.181z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Teilen</span></div></div> <!----> <div data-nzz-tid="contextmenu-overlay" class="overlay--container"><!----> <!----></div></div> <!----></div></div></div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91ar0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text">Öffnet sich derzeit eine historische Kaufgelegenheit im Bereich der Nebenwerte?</p><div id="id-doc-0d6967fe" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="barrier" is-new-line-child="true"><div id="paywall_container" class="disabled-overlay"></div></div><div id="id-doc-810a8dd5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="advertisement" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91b00" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Momentan dominieren Large Caps die Börse: Seit mehr als zwei Jahren fahren Anlegerinnen und Anleger mit Aktien von grosskapitalisierten Konzernen deutlich besser als mit sogenannten Small und Mid Caps. Besonders anschaulich lässt sich dies an der Rally der «Magnificent Seven» in den USA beobachten. Mit Ausnahme von Tesla laufen die US-Schwergewichte – zu denen Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta Platforms und Microsoft gehören – seit Anfang 2023 dem Rest davon.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91b20" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch nicht nur mit Blick auf die Börsenstars ist die Unterperformance von Nebenwerten augenscheinlich. In Europa dümpeln die Nebenwerteindizes Stoxx Small 200 und Stoxx Mid 200 nach einem Zwischenhoch im Jahr 2021 seit mehr als anderthalb Jahren unter ihrem Vor-Corona-Niveau. Gleichzeitig konnten sich die 200 grössten Aktien in Europa seit Sommer 2022 deutlich absetzen.</p><div id="id-doc-1hliobbgo0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Europa" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-cxea4" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cxea4/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91b30" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch in Deutschland ist in den letzten fünf Jahren der Mid-Cap-Index MDax kaum vom Fleck gekommen. Während Small Caps (SDax) nur leicht besser abschnitten, notiert der Blue-Chip-Index Dax auf Allzeithoch.</p><div id="id-doc-1hliobe9k0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Deutschland " aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-CzOBT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CzOBT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91b60" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch in der Schweiz ist die sich öffnende Schere zwischen den grosskapitalisierten Unternehmen im SMI und den kleineren Gesellschaften im SPI Extra sichtbar – wenn auch etwas weniger ausgeprägt.</p><div id="id-doc-1hliobg3b0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Schweiz" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-23zW0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/23zW0/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1hlioaetv0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>Nebenwerte sind langfristige Outperformer</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91b90" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dabei ist die seit Jahren andauernde unterdurchschnittliche Kursentwicklung von Nebenwerten gegenüber Large Caps historisch gesehen nicht der Normalfall, sondern die Ausnahme. In den letzten zwanzig Jahren haben die Aktien der 200 grössten kotierten Unternehmen Europas um gut 90% an Wert gewonnen. Die 200 kleinsten Gesellschaften im europäischen Leitindex Stoxx 600 haben im selben Zeitraum um fast 170% zugelegt – jeweils ohne Dividenden gerechnet.</p><div id="id-doc-1hliobinj0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Nebenwerte überzeugen langfristig" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-wrJ7k" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wrJ7k/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bb0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Woran liegt das?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bc0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Antwort liegt hauptsächlich in den unterschiedlichen Wachstumsvoraussetzungen. Kleinere und dynamischere Nebenwerte können wesentlich höhere Wachstumsraten aufweisen als Unternehmen, die bereits eine stattliche Grösse erreicht haben. Jean Keller von der Genfer Fonds-Boutique Quaero Capital veranschaulicht dies anhand eines simplen Rechenbeispiels:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bc1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">«Für ein kleines Unternehmen mit einem Umsatz von 600 Mio. Fr. bedeutet ein neuer Auftrag im Wert von 100 Mio. Fr. eine Umsatzsteigerung um rund 17%.» Für ein börsennotiertes Schwergewicht hingegen sei ein Auftrag in dieser Grössenordnung kaum spürbar. Auch spiele es eine Rolle, dass kleinere und mittelgrosse Gesellschaften in der Regel stärker fokussiert seien, sich auf Nischen spezialisierten und dort zu Marktführern werden könnten.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1hlioa7fs0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>Small Caps leiden unter hoher Inflation</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91be0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dass diese vorteilhaften Merkmale von Nebenwerten in den letzten Jahren kaum gegriffen haben, hat nicht zuletzt mit der Inflation zu tun. Small- und Mid-Cap-Unternehmen sind in Phasen hoher Inflation in der Regel im Nachteil, da ihre Marktmacht oft nicht ausreicht, um Preiserhöhungen an die Kunden weiterzugeben. Gleichzeitig wirken sich steigende Kapitalkosten – wenn die Zinsen anziehen – meist stärker auf Gesellschaften mit Millionen- statt mit Milliardenumsatz aus.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bf0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Analysten von JPMorgan haben festgestellt, dass Small- und Mid-Cap-Unternehmen vergleichsweise häufig Schulden haben, die variabel verzinst sind – sich also stark an den Leitzinsen der Notenbanken orientieren. So seien etwa 38% der Schulden von Gesellschaften aus dem amerikanischen Nebenwerteindex Russell 2000 variabel verzinst (siehe Grafik). Bei Unternehmen aus dem S&P 500 seien es lediglich 7%.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bf1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dass die Zinsen in den letzten beiden Jahren im Rekordtempo gestiegen sind, belastete kleinere Unternehmen daher tendenziell stärker als Grosskonzerne.</p><figure id="id-doc-1hliobobi0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=1200&height=546&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:45.48%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1315" height="598" src="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=340&height=155&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1315,598,x0,y0" loading="eager" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=680&height=309&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1315,598,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=1360&height=618&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1315,598,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=340&height=155&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1315,598,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"><!----> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Grafik: JP Morgan</span></div></div></figcaption> <!----></figure><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1hlio9jp40" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>Bewertung auf rekordtiefem Niveau</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bi0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Durch die jahrelange Unterperformance hat sich die Bewertung von Nebenwerten deutlich verbilligt – vor allem im Verhältnis zu Large Caps. Gemäss Bank of America (BofA) notiert das relative Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis amerikanischer Small Caps relativ zu dem von Large Caps rund 25% unter dem historischen Durchschnitt (siehe Grafik).</p><figure id="id-doc-1hliobr1s0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png?width=1200&height=965&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:80.38%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1045" height="840" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png?width=680&height=548&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1042,840,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png?width=1360&height=1097&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1042,840,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png?width=340&height=274&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1042,840,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"><!----> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Grafik: BofA Global Research</span></div></div></figcaption> <!----></figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bj0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In Europa lässt sich gemäss Keller von Quaero Capital ein ähnlicher Sachverhalt beobachten. «Während Small Caps in dieser Region historisch betrachtet mit einem Aufschlag von rund 20% gegenüber Large Caps bewertet werden, werden sie derzeit mit einem Abschlag von 30% gehandelt.» In der Tat beträgt das ein Jahr vorausschauende KGV für den MSCI Europe Small Cap Index derzeit 10, während der MSCI Europe Large Cap Index mit einem KGV von 13 bewertet wird. «Das konnte man seit 2008 nicht mehr beobachten», so Keller.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bk0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auf diesem Niveau erscheinen ihm die europäischen Small Caps stark unterbewertet. Makroökonomische Prognosen würden auf ein Wachstum von 0,5% im Jahr 2024 für die Eurozone hindeuten, und die Zinsen dürften sich stabilisieren oder sogar sinken, meint er. «Potenziell schlechte Nachrichten scheinen bereits eingepreist zu sein. Das derzeitige Niveau bietet eine einmalige Gelegenheit, sich in dieser Anlageklasse zu positionieren.»</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bl0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Analysten von Bank of America sehen eine Chance, dass US-Nebenwerte 2024 das erste Mal seit 2016 das Large-Cap-Segment schlagen. «Wir glauben, dass die Gewinnentwicklung in den USA 2024 die Talsohle erreicht», schreibt Jill Carey Hill, Expertin für Small und Mid Caps. Nebenwerte dürften dann ihren Gewinn schneller steigern können, was sich entsprechend im Aktienkurs spiegeln werde.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bm0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Analystin fügt an, dass sich das Sentiment für Nebenwerte im Schlussquartal 2023 zwar bereits aufgehellt habe, auch habe sich im Dezember erstmals seit fast drei Jahren die Mehrheit der Fondsmanager gemäss der monatlichen <a href="https://themarket.ch/mister-market/die-profi-investoren-blicken-voller-zuversicht-auf-das-jahr-2024-ld.10428">Fondsmanagerumfrage von BofA</a> für kleine Aktien ausgesprochen:</p><figure id="id-doc-1hliobu4k0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/b55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png?width=1200&height=723&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:60.24%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1011" height="609" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/b55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png?width=680&height=410&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1011,609,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/b55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png?width=1360&height=819&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1011,609,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/b55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png?width=340&height=205&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1011,609,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"><!----> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Grafik: BofA Global Research</span></div></div></figcaption> <!----></figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bo0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Allerdings zeige sich dies noch nicht in den Fondszuflüssen für Nebenwerte. Während die US-Large-Caps-Fonds bis Januar 2024 weiter Milliardenzuflüsse erhielten ...</p><figure id="id-doc-1hlioc0kg0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/ff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png?width=1200&height=558&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:46.49%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="2392" height="1112" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/ff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png?width=680&height=316&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2391,1112,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/ff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png?width=1360&height=633&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2391,1112,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/ff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png?width=340&height=158&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2391,1112,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bp0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">… ist bei Aktien mittelgrosser Unternehmen – nachdem sie kurzzeitig positive Zuflüsse erzielten – Anfang 2024 wieder Geld abgezogen worden.</p><figure id="id-doc-1hlioc2vv0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png?width=1200&height=553&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:46.08%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="2422" height="1116" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png?width=680&height=313&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2422,1116,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png?width=1360&height=627&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2422,1116,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png?width=340&height=157&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2422,1116,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91br0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Bei Small Caps hingegen wurden zuletzt Zuflüsse in der Grössenordnung von wenigen hundert Millionen verzeichnet.</p><figure id="id-doc-1hlioc53u0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png?width=1200&height=524&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:43.71%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="2590" height="1132" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png?width=680&height=297&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2590,1132,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png?width=1360&height=594&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2590,1132,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/02/01/87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png?width=340&height=148&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2590,1132,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);"> <!----> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bt0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mit anderen Worten: Der Investment Case für Nebenwerte ist noch nicht bei der Mehrheit der Marktteilnehmer angekommen, sondern fängt gerade erst an, für sie interessant zu werden. Anlegerinnen und Anleger laufen entsprechend kaum Gefahr, einem Hype-Thema hinterherzurennen.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1hlio9cdf0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>Nebenwerte haben mehr Schulden</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91bv0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Bewertungen sind zwar tief. Richtig ist jedoch auch, dass sich im Nebenwertesegment die Qualität der Unternehmen messbar verschlechtert hat. Gemäss JPMorgan lag der Anteil unrentabler Gesellschaften im Russell 2000 vor der Finanzkrise 2008 bei durchschnittlich 27%, heute sind es 45%. Ausserdem würden deutlich mehr Player aus den Bereichen Private Equity und Venture Capital mit den öffentlichen Märkten um die Eigenkapitalfinanzierung kleinerer Unternehmen konkurrieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c00" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Immer mehr vielversprechende Gesellschaften würden sich dafür entscheiden, privat zu bleiben oder den Börsengang zu verschieben, da sie durch die zunehmende Regulierung der öffentlichen Märkte abgeschreckt würden. Dies führe zu einer negativen Verzerrung der Aktienselektion in den Small-Cap-Indizes, halten die Analysten fest.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch glaubt JPMorgan angesichts der strukturellen Herausforderungen nicht, dass die Bewertungsprämie für Small Caps wieder den Wert von rund 50% erreichen wird, auf dem sie sich in den letzten zwanzig Jahren durchschnittlich bewegt hatte. Dennoch halten die Analysten die Bewertung derzeit für attraktiv, vor allem im Hinblick auf ein mögliches Nachlassen des zyklischen Gegenwinds.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c20" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In der Tat hat sich der Kauf von Nebenwerten in konjunkturellen Schwächephasen langfristig als erfolgreiche Strategie erwiesen. Dies, weil die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Zinssenkungen durch die Zentralbanken und die Aussichten auf eine wirtschaftliche Erholung kleinere Unternehmen gegenüber ihren grösseren Gegenspielern begünstigen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c30" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch wenn das richtige Timing – wie immer an der Börse – schwierig zu treffen ist, glaubt JPMorgan, dass die Small-Cap-Prämie zurückkehren wird. In ihrem Basisszenario für 2024 gehen die Analysten von einer Verlangsamung des Wirtschaftswachstums in den Industrieländern aus. «Dieses Szenario würde Anlegern in den Small-Cap-Segmenten eine Chance bieten.»</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1hlio96uh0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>Gelegenheit könnte günstig sein</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c50" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Investment Case für Nebenwerte ist auch aus Sicht von The Market intakt. Die Bewertungen sind attraktiv, die Aussicht auf eine Erholung der Unternehmensgewinne könnte den nächsten Aufwärtstrend bei Small Caps begünstigen. Allerdings bleibt die Tatsache, dass der Zeitpunkt für eine Outperformance nicht zuletzt von der Entwicklung der US-Konjunktur abhängt. Derzeit gibt es zwar Anzeichen für eine sanfte Landung im Jahr 2024, doch sicher ist das freilich nicht.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c60" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wenn es zu einer Rezession kommt, wird dies die Erholung der Nebenwerte verzögern. Dennoch ist es ratsam, eine langfristige Position in Small und Mid Caps zu halten, um ein gewisses Exposure in innovativen, wachstumsstarken Unternehmen zu haben. Sollte die weiche Landung – oder gar ein «No Landing»? – gelingen, dürften Nebenwerte überproportional profitieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1hlio91c61" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wer das Thema Nebenwerte spielen möchte, kann dies über einen ETF tun. Folgende bieten sich an:</p><div id="id-doc-1hliot35a0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-regular" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><!----> <ul class="enumeration enumeration--regular"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Weltweit: SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (ACC). ISIN: IE00BCBJG560</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Europa: iShares Edge MSCI Europe Size Factor UCITS ETF. ISIN: IE00BQN1KC32</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">USA: SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap UCITS ETF. 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widget__row--noBorder"><div data-team-more-to-subject class="widget--articlelist-a"><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_10445" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a"><!----> <!----> <!----> <!----> <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/analyse/antizyklisch-in-zykliker-investieren-ld.10445" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Antizyklisch in Zykliker investieren" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2024/01/19/7c3d80bc-d8a3-46ef-a19f-487098031690.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1137,853,x71,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/01/19/7c3d80bc-d8a3-46ef-a19f-487098031690.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1137,853,x71,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/01/19/7c3d80bc-d8a3-46ef-a19f-487098031690.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1137,853,x71,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2024/01/19/7c3d80bc-d8a3-46ef-a19f-487098031690.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1137,853,x71,y0 240w" width="1137" height="853" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide"> <!----> <!----> <!----> <!----></div></a></figure></div> <!----> <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/analyse/antizyklisch-in-zykliker-investieren-ld.10445" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="1" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper"><!----> <!----> <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Analyse </span> <!----></div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--0"><!----> <!----> <span class="teaser__title-name">Antizyklisch in Zykliker investieren</span></h2> <!----> <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Die Einkaufsmanagerindizes haben begonnen, sich auf tiefem Niveau zu stabilisieren. Das dient Anlageprofis als Signal, Positionen in zyklischen Titeln wie Bossard, Oerlikon oder Georg Fischer aufzubauen.</div> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"><!----> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"><!----> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Andreas Kälin</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">21.01.2024</time> <!----> <!----> <!----></div> <!----></div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular "><!----> <!----> <!----></div></div> <!----></div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_9490" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a"><!----> <!----> <!----> <!----> <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/interview/die-bewertungen-sind-bei-nebenwerten-attraktiver-als-bei-den-large-caps-ld.9490" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="«Eine wirtschaftliche Abschwächung ist je nach Sektor unterschiedlich eingepreist»: Andreas Strobl, Fondsmanager bei Berenberg." src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/08/07/4e01f3bf-444d-43af-839b-e0cd17eb9de4.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=5355,4016,x331,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/08/07/4e01f3bf-444d-43af-839b-e0cd17eb9de4.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=5355,4016,x331,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/08/07/4e01f3bf-444d-43af-839b-e0cd17eb9de4.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=5355,4016,x331,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/08/07/4e01f3bf-444d-43af-839b-e0cd17eb9de4.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=5355,4016,x331,y0 240w" width="5355" height="4016" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide"> <!----> <!----> <!----> <!----></div></a></figure></div> <!----> <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/interview/die-bewertungen-sind-bei-nebenwerten-attraktiver-als-bei-den-large-caps-ld.9490" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="2" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper"><!----> <!----> <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Interview </span> <!----></div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--1"><!----> <!----> <span class="teaser__title-name">«Die Bewertungen sind bei Nebenwerten attraktiver als bei den Large Caps»</span></h2> <!----> <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Andreas Strobl, Fondsmanager bei der deutschen Privatbank Berenberg, sagt, warum er dem Goldilocks-Szenario an den Börsen nicht traut, welche Sektoren er derzeit bevorzugt und warum er auf deutsche Nebenwerte setzt.</div> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"><!----> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"><!----> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Henning Hölder ✉</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">08.08.2023</time> <!----> <!----> <!----></div> <!----></div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular "><!----> <!----> <!----></div></div> <!----></div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8498" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a"><!----> <!----> <!----> <!----> <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/analyse/deutsche-nebenwerte-haben-noch-aufholpotenzial-ld.8498" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Deutsche Nebenwerte haben noch Aufholpotenzial" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/22/86092a28-1a4c-47ab-94f0-c261a1f4f870.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1097,823,x71,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/22/86092a28-1a4c-47ab-94f0-c261a1f4f870.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1097,823,x71,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/22/86092a28-1a4c-47ab-94f0-c261a1f4f870.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1097,823,x71,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/22/86092a28-1a4c-47ab-94f0-c261a1f4f870.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1097,823,x71,y0 240w" width="1097" height="823" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide"> <!----> <!----> <!----> <!----></div></a></figure></div> <!----> <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/analyse/deutsche-nebenwerte-haben-noch-aufholpotenzial-ld.8498" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="3" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper"><!----> <!----> <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Analyse </span> <!----></div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--2"><!----> <!----> <span class="teaser__title-name">Deutsche Nebenwerte haben noch Aufholpotenzial</span></h2> <!----> <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Langfristig rentieren Aktien von Unternehmen aus der zweiten Reihe besser als Blue-Chip-Titel. The Market wirft einen Blick nach Deutschland – und sagt, wo sich ein Einstieg lohnen könnte.</div> <!----></div> <!----> <!----></a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"><!----> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"><!----> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Henning Hölder ✉</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">24.02.2023</time> <!----> <!----> <!----></div> <!----></div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular "><!----> <!----> <!----></div></div> <!----></div></div></article></div></div></div></section></section> <div class="cve articlepromobox"></div> <!----> <!----> <!----></div></div></div> <div id="footer" class="footer"><!----> <div class="footer__section"><h2 class="footer__section--title"> </h2> <ul class="footer__section--list"><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://abo.themarket.ch/kontakt/" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Abo-Service </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/agb" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> AGB/Datenschutz </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/impressum" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Impressum </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://themarket.ch/feedback" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Feedback </a></li></ul></div> <div class="footer__print"> Copyright © The Market Media AG. 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Market, Schweiz";bU.url=bf;bU.logo={"@type":"ImageObject",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Flogo.png",width:413,height:60};bU.contactPoint=[{"@type":"ContactPoint",telephone:"+41-44-2581000",contactType:"customer service"}];bU.sameAs=["https:\u002F\u002Fwww.facebook.com\u002FTheMarketCH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.twitter.com\u002FTheMarket_CH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fcompany\u002Fthe-market-ch\u002F"];bY.title="Suche The Market, Schweiz, https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fsuche";bY.href="\u002Fsuche";ca.standard={Tags:[H,"classification=default","language=de-CH","analyse","audiotts=true","product=themarket","doctype=article","pagetype=article","ldid=ld.10542","channel=Analyse"],ContentCreated:bc,ContentAuthor:A,ContentSection:j,ContentIsNative:c};ca.custom={product:be,docType:o,pageType:o,layout:n,ldId:G,channel:j,heading:q,language:s};return {layout:"default",data:[{data:{content:[{component:"header",identifier:bm,id:"doc-1hlio16rq0",content:{title:q,lead:K,author:"\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:henning.hoelder@themarket.ch\"\u003EHenning Hölder\u003C\u002Fa\u003E ✉"},data:{_leadDirective:{}},prevElement:a,nextElement:d,firstContentElement:c},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91ar0",content:{text:"Öffnet sich derzeit eine historische Kaufgelegenheit im Bereich der Nebenwerte?"},data:{},prevElement:bm,nextElement:aG},{id:"doc-0d6967fe",identifier:aG,prevElement:d,nextElement:aH},{id:"doc-810a8dd5",identifier:aH,paidContent:c,prevElement:aG,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91b00",content:{text:"Momentan dominieren Large Caps die Börse: Seit mehr als zwei Jahren fahren Anlegerinnen und Anleger mit Aktien von grosskapitalisierten Konzernen deutlich besser als mit sogenannten Small und Mid Caps. Besonders anschaulich lässt sich dies an der Rally der «Magnificent Seven» in den USA beobachten. Mit Ausnahme von Tesla laufen die US-Schwergewichte – zu denen Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta Platforms und Microsoft gehören – seit Anfang 2023 dem Rest davon."},paidContent:c,prevElement:aH,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91b20",content:{text:"Doch nicht nur mit Blick auf die Börsenstars ist die Unterperformance von Nebenwerten augenscheinlich. In Europa dümpeln die Nebenwerteindizes Stoxx Small 200 und Stoxx Mid 200 nach einem Zwischenhoch im Jahr 2021 seit mehr als anderthalb Jahren unter ihrem Vor-Corona-Niveau. Gleichzeitig konnten sich die 200 grössten Aktien in Europa seit Sommer 2022 deutlich absetzen."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:m},{component:r,identifier:m,id:"doc-1hliobbgo0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Europa\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-cxea4\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002Fcxea4\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:r}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91b30",content:{text:"Auch in Deutschland ist in den letzten fünf Jahren der Mid-Cap-Index MDax kaum vom Fleck gekommen. Während Small Caps (SDax) nur leicht besser abschnitten, notiert der Blue-Chip-Index Dax auf Allzeithoch."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:m,nextElement:m},{component:r,identifier:m,id:"doc-1hliobe9k0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Deutschland \" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-CzOBT\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FCzOBT\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:r}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91b60",content:{text:"Auch in der Schweiz ist die sich öffnende Schere zwischen den grosskapitalisierten Unternehmen im SMI und den kleineren Gesellschaften im SPI Extra sichtbar – wenn auch etwas weniger ausgeprägt."},paidContent:c,prevElement:m,nextElement:m},{component:r,identifier:m,id:"doc-1hliobg3b0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Schweiz\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-23zW0\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002F23zW0\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:r}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:k},{component:L,identifier:k,id:"doc-1hlioaetv0",content:{title:"Nebenwerte sind langfristige Outperformer",id:"subtitle-nebenwerte-sind-langfristige-outperformer"},contentTable:b,paidContent:c,prevElement:m,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91b90",content:{text:"Dabei ist die seit Jahren andauernde unterdurchschnittliche Kursentwicklung von Nebenwerten gegenüber Large Caps historisch gesehen nicht der Normalfall, sondern die Ausnahme. In den letzten zwanzig Jahren haben die Aktien der 200 grössten kotierten Unternehmen Europas um gut 90% an Wert gewonnen. Die 200 kleinsten Gesellschaften im europäischen Leitindex Stoxx 600 haben im selben Zeitraum um fast 170% zugelegt – jeweils ohne Dividenden gerechnet."},paidContent:c,prevElement:k,nextElement:m},{component:r,identifier:m,id:"doc-1hliobinj0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Nebenwerte überzeugen langfristig\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-wrJ7k\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FwrJ7k\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:r}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bb0",content:{text:"Woran liegt das?"},paidContent:c,prevElement:m,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bc0",content:{text:"Die Antwort liegt hauptsächlich in den unterschiedlichen Wachstumsvoraussetzungen. Kleinere und dynamischere Nebenwerte können wesentlich höhere Wachstumsraten aufweisen als Unternehmen, die bereits eine stattliche Grösse erreicht haben. Jean Keller von der Genfer Fonds-Boutique Quaero Capital veranschaulicht dies anhand eines simplen Rechenbeispiels:"},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bc1",content:{text:"«Für ein kleines Unternehmen mit einem Umsatz von 600 Mio. Fr. bedeutet ein neuer Auftrag im Wert von 100 Mio. Fr. eine Umsatzsteigerung um rund 17%.» Für ein börsennotiertes Schwergewicht hingegen sei ein Auftrag in dieser Grössenordnung kaum spürbar. Auch spiele es eine Rolle, dass kleinere und mittelgrosse Gesellschaften in der Regel stärker fokussiert seien, sich auf Nischen spezialisierten und dort zu Marktführern werden könnten."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:k},{component:L,identifier:k,id:"doc-1hlioa7fs0",content:{title:"Small Caps leiden unter hoher Inflation",id:"subtitle-small-caps-leiden-unter-hoher-inflation"},contentTable:b,paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91be0",content:{text:"Dass diese vorteilhaften Merkmale von Nebenwerten in den letzten Jahren kaum gegriffen haben, hat nicht zuletzt mit der Inflation zu tun. Small- und Mid-Cap-Unternehmen sind in Phasen hoher Inflation in der Regel im Nachteil, da ihre Marktmacht oft nicht ausreicht, um Preiserhöhungen an die Kunden weiterzugeben. Gleichzeitig wirken sich steigende Kapitalkosten – wenn die Zinsen anziehen – meist stärker auf Gesellschaften mit Millionen- statt mit Milliardenumsatz aus."},paidContent:c,prevElement:k,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bf0",content:{text:"Analysten von JPMorgan haben festgestellt, dass Small- und Mid-Cap-Unternehmen vergleichsweise häufig Schulden haben, die variabel verzinst sind – sich also stark an den Leitzinsen der Notenbanken orientieren. So seien etwa 38% der Schulden von Gesellschaften aus dem amerikanischen Nebenwerteindex Russell 2000 variabel verzinst (siehe Grafik). Bei Unternehmen aus dem S&P 500 seien es lediglich 7%."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bf1",content:{text:"Dass die Zinsen in den letzten beiden Jahren im Rekordtempo gestiegen sind, belastete kleinere Unternehmen daher tendenziell stärker als Grosskonzerne."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:bn,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"h3KgRur5zimQ",width:1315,height:598,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F152dc5a2-d8f0-4c2c-9041-a2f3cf8258fd.png"},author:aI},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:k},{component:L,identifier:k,id:"doc-1hlio9jp40",content:{title:"Bewertung auf rekordtiefem Niveau",id:"subtitle-bewertung-auf-rekordtiefem-niveau"},contentTable:b,paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bi0",content:{text:"Durch die jahrelange Unterperformance hat sich die Bewertung von Nebenwerten deutlich verbilligt – vor allem im Verhältnis zu Large Caps. Gemäss Bank of America (BofA) notiert das relative Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis amerikanischer Small Caps relativ zu dem von Large Caps rund 25% unter dem historischen Durchschnitt (siehe Grafik)."},paidContent:c,prevElement:k,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:bo,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"MxLChttn1FL-",width:1045,height:840,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F952edd6b-152a-46cc-b37d-cf6bcad73367.png"},author:R},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bj0",content:{text:"In Europa lässt sich gemäss Keller von Quaero Capital ein ähnlicher Sachverhalt beobachten. «Während Small Caps in dieser Region historisch betrachtet mit einem Aufschlag von rund 20% gegenüber Large Caps bewertet werden, werden sie derzeit mit einem Abschlag von 30% gehandelt.» In der Tat beträgt das ein Jahr vorausschauende KGV für den MSCI Europe Small Cap Index derzeit 10, während der MSCI Europe Large Cap Index mit einem KGV von 13 bewertet wird. «Das konnte man seit 2008 nicht mehr beobachten», so Keller."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bk0",content:{text:"Auf diesem Niveau erscheinen ihm die europäischen Small Caps stark unterbewertet. Makroökonomische Prognosen würden auf ein Wachstum von 0,5% im Jahr 2024 für die Eurozone hindeuten, und die Zinsen dürften sich stabilisieren oder sogar sinken, meint er. «Potenziell schlechte Nachrichten scheinen bereits eingepreist zu sein. Das derzeitige Niveau bietet eine einmalige Gelegenheit, sich in dieser Anlageklasse zu positionieren.»"},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bl0",content:{text:"Analysten von Bank of America sehen eine Chance, dass US-Nebenwerte 2024 das erste Mal seit 2016 das Large-Cap-Segment schlagen. «Wir glauben, dass die Gewinnentwicklung in den USA 2024 die Talsohle erreicht», schreibt Jill Carey Hill, Expertin für Small und Mid Caps. Nebenwerte dürften dann ihren Gewinn schneller steigern können, was sich entsprechend im Aktienkurs spiegeln werde."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bm0",content:{text:"Die Analystin fügt an, dass sich das Sentiment für Nebenwerte im Schlussquartal 2023 zwar bereits aufgehellt habe, auch habe sich im Dezember erstmals seit fast drei Jahren die Mehrheit der Fondsmanager gemäss der monatlichen \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fmister-market\u002Fdie-profi-investoren-blicken-voller-zuversicht-auf-das-jahr-2024-ld.10428\"\u003EFondsmanagerumfrage von BofA\u003C\u002Fa\u003E für kleine Aktien ausgesprochen:"},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:bp,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fb55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fb55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"2HC76eBaIpqD",width:1011,height:609,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fb55b529e-f964-45dd-9b6f-e5ed628604aa.png"},author:R},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bo0",content:{text:"Allerdings zeige sich dies noch nicht in den Fondszuflüssen für Nebenwerte. Während die US-Large-Caps-Fonds bis Januar 2024 weiter Milliardenzuflüsse erhielten ..."},paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:bq,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"h8haH6Z-p0gj",width:2392,height:1112,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002Fff6931e0-a892-4212-a001-4dac7e3acf35.png"}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bp0",content:{text:"… ist bei Aktien mittelgrosser Unternehmen – nachdem sie kurzzeitig positive Zuflüsse erzielten – Anfang 2024 wieder Geld abgezogen worden."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:br,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"prw5RYa5D1RP",width:2422,height:1116,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F8306345f-fd8d-4bc9-9be1-c0ba7e891de5.png"}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91br0",content:{text:"Bei Small Caps hingegen wurden zuletzt Zuflüsse in der Grössenordnung von wenigen hundert Millionen verzeichnet."},paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{component:B,identifier:h,id:bs,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"0UfZxvtNsXvU",width:2590,height:1132,mimeType:C,imageService:p,key:"2024\u002F02\u002F01\u002F87853ad4-eaed-403e-bcad-23c9985d1c24.png"}},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bt0",content:{text:"Mit anderen Worten: Der Investment Case für Nebenwerte ist noch nicht bei der Mehrheit der Marktteilnehmer angekommen, sondern fängt gerade erst an, für sie interessant zu werden. Anlegerinnen und Anleger laufen entsprechend kaum Gefahr, einem Hype-Thema hinterherzurennen."},paidContent:c,prevElement:h,nextElement:k},{component:L,identifier:k,id:"doc-1hlio9cdf0",content:{title:"Nebenwerte haben mehr Schulden",id:"subtitle-nebenwerte-haben-mehr-schulden"},contentTable:b,paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91bv0",content:{text:"Die Bewertungen sind zwar tief. Richtig ist jedoch auch, dass sich im Nebenwertesegment die Qualität der Unternehmen messbar verschlechtert hat. Gemäss JPMorgan lag der Anteil unrentabler Gesellschaften im Russell 2000 vor der Finanzkrise 2008 bei durchschnittlich 27%, heute sind es 45%. Ausserdem würden deutlich mehr Player aus den Bereichen Private Equity und Venture Capital mit den öffentlichen Märkten um die Eigenkapitalfinanzierung kleinerer Unternehmen konkurrieren."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:k,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c00",content:{text:"Immer mehr vielversprechende Gesellschaften würden sich dafür entscheiden, privat zu bleiben oder den Börsengang zu verschieben, da sie durch die zunehmende Regulierung der öffentlichen Märkte abgeschreckt würden. Dies führe zu einer negativen Verzerrung der Aktienselektion in den Small-Cap-Indizes, halten die Analysten fest."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c10",content:{text:"Auch glaubt JPMorgan angesichts der strukturellen Herausforderungen nicht, dass die Bewertungsprämie für Small Caps wieder den Wert von rund 50% erreichen wird, auf dem sie sich in den letzten zwanzig Jahren durchschnittlich bewegt hatte. Dennoch halten die Analysten die Bewertung derzeit für attraktiv, vor allem im Hinblick auf ein mögliches Nachlassen des zyklischen Gegenwinds."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c20",content:{text:"In der Tat hat sich der Kauf von Nebenwerten in konjunkturellen Schwächephasen langfristig als erfolgreiche Strategie erwiesen. Dies, weil die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Zinssenkungen durch die Zentralbanken und die Aussichten auf eine wirtschaftliche Erholung kleinere Unternehmen gegenüber ihren grösseren Gegenspielern begünstigen."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c30",content:{text:"Auch wenn das richtige Timing – wie immer an der Börse – schwierig zu treffen ist, glaubt JPMorgan, dass die Small-Cap-Prämie zurückkehren wird. In ihrem Basisszenario für 2024 gehen die Analysten von einer Verlangsamung des Wirtschaftswachstums in den Industrieländern aus. «Dieses Szenario würde Anlegern in den Small-Cap-Segmenten eine Chance bieten.»"},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:k},{component:L,identifier:k,id:"doc-1hlio96uh0",content:{title:"Gelegenheit könnte günstig sein",id:"subtitle-gelegenheit-k-nnte-g-nstig-sein"},contentTable:b,paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c50",content:{text:"Der Investment Case für Nebenwerte ist auch aus Sicht von The Market intakt. Die Bewertungen sind attraktiv, die Aussicht auf eine Erholung der Unternehmensgewinne könnte den nächsten Aufwärtstrend bei Small Caps begünstigen. Allerdings bleibt die Tatsache, dass der Zeitpunkt für eine Outperformance nicht zuletzt von der Entwicklung der US-Konjunktur abhängt. Derzeit gibt es zwar Anzeichen für eine sanfte Landung im Jahr 2024, doch sicher ist das freilich nicht."},data:{},paidContent:c,prevElement:k,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c60",content:{text:"Wenn es zu einer Rezession kommt, wird dies die Erholung der Nebenwerte verzögern. Dennoch ist es ratsam, eine langfristige Position in Small und Mid Caps zu halten, um ein gewisses Exposure in innovativen, wachstumsstarken Unternehmen zu haben. Sollte die weiche Landung – oder gar ein «No Landing»? – gelingen, dürften Nebenwerte überproportional profitieren."},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:d},{component:f,identifier:d,id:"doc-1hlio91c61",content:{text:"Wer das Thema Nebenwerte spielen möchte, kann dies über einen ETF tun. Folgende bieten sich an:"},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:aJ},{component:"enumeration-regular",identifier:aJ,id:"doc-1hliot35a0",containers:{enumeration:[{component:aK,identifier:aL,id:"doc-1hliot35a1",content:{text:"Weltweit: SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (ACC). ISIN: IE00BCBJG560"}},{component:aK,identifier:aL,id:"doc-1hliot72s0",content:{text:"Europa: iShares Edge MSCI Europe Size Factor UCITS ETF. ISIN: IE00BQN1KC32"}},{component:aK,identifier:aL,id:"doc-1hlioteij0",content:{text:"USA: SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap UCITS ETF. ISIN: IE00BJ38QD84"}}]},paidContent:c,prevElement:d,nextElement:aM,lastContentElement:c},{component:"sharebox",identifier:aM,id:"doc-1hlio16rq2",paidContent:c,prevElement:aJ,nextElement:bt},{component:"moreToSubject",identifier:bt,id:"doc-1hlio16rq3",containers:{"moreToSubject-area":[{component:aN,identifier:aO,id:"doc-1hliontpu0",content:{"link-box-embed":{service:aP,params:{type:aQ,layout:[n,aR,aS,aT,aU,aV,S,aW,T,U,V,aX,W,X,Y,Z,_],mediaId:10445}},article:{metadata:{contentTypeGroup:D,firstTitle:aY,flag:j,significantUpdate:b,language:{groupId:"75ySruIbdgQZx-cZRRcjF",label:$,locale:s},title:aY,seoTitle:aY,nzzAuthors:[{external:b,name:"Ruedi Keller (rk)",id:5,shortName:"rk"}],designName:y,nzzExchangeCode:"23862714-4-1; 81682-4-1; 116915100-4-1; 23922930-4-1",significantUpdateTill:"2024-01-22T10:15:59.816Z",department:{path:t,premium:b,level:u,name:j},publicationDate:aZ,slug:"antizyklisch-in-zykliker-investieren",firstPublicationDate:aZ,nzzCharacterCount:11987,authorLine:"Andreas 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Die Gelegenheit könnte jetzt günstig sein – wenn einige Faktoren mitspielen.","subtitle","image\u002Fjpeg","https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fanalyse\u002Fszenario-einer-weichen-landung-schlaegt-bald-die-stunde-der-nebenwerte-ld.10542",void 0,"nzzas","preload","Grafik: BofA Global Research","longformvisual","longformstandard","briefing","briefing-intl","opinion","advertisement-regular","advertisement-longformvisual","advertisement-gallery","advertisement-video","German",1280,"16:9",1.77778,853,"1:1","4:3",1.33333,4016,823,2004,"The Market","main","Empfehlungen","\u002Fempfehlungen","Unternehmen","\u002Funternehmen","Strategie","\u002Fstrategie","Meinung","\u002Fmeinung","Mr Market","\u002Fmister-market","English","\u002Fenglish","\u002Fagb","Impressum","\u002Fimpressum","https:\u002F\u002Fabo.themarket.ch\u002Fkampagne\u002F?lp=19003844","48","anonymous","font\u002Fwoff2","font","judi.barrier","judi.advertisement","Grafik: JP Morgan","judi.enumeration-regular","enumeration-item","judi.enumeration-item","judi.sharebox","moreToSubject--internal","judi.moreToSubject--internal","embed-teaser","link-box-embed","gallery","video","fullwidth","alias-teaser","matchcard-teaser","headlesslongformvisual","recipe","Antizyklisch in Zykliker investieren","2024-01-21T22:15:59.816Z","Henning Hölder (hoe)",6573,"2023-08-08T01:22:05.232Z","2024-02-02T03:21:34.500Z","2024-02-02T06:48:12.270Z","classification=default,language=de-CH","themarket","https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch","Article","The Market abonnieren","Startseite","\u002F","\u003Cp\u003EEs ist ein Fehler aufgetreten. Bitte prüfen Sie Ihre Internetverbindung oder versuchen Sie es später erneut.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E","bellevue","judi.header","doc-1hliobobi0","doc-1hliobr1s0","doc-1hliobu4k0","doc-1hlioc0kg0","doc-1hlioc2vv0","doc-1hlioc53u0","judi.moreToSubject","Die Einkaufsmanagerindizes haben begonnen, sich auf tiefem Niveau zu stabilisieren. Das dient Anlageprofis als Signal, Positionen in zyklischen Titeln wie Bossard, Oerlikon oder Georg Fischer aufzubauen.",720,71,"ld.10445","«Die Bewertungen sind bei Nebenwerten attraktiver als bei den Large Caps»","hoe","Andreas Strobl, Fondsmanager bei der deutschen Privatbank Berenberg, sagt, warum er dem Goldilocks-Szenario an den Börsen nicht traut, welche Sektoren er derzeit bevorzugt und warum er auf deutsche Nebenwerte setzt.",6016,"ld.9490","\u002F\u002Fassets.static-nzz.ch\u002Flivingdocs\u002Fresrc-0.9.0.min.js","browserPlugins.resrcit","«Eine wirtschaftliche Abschwächung ist je nach Sektor unterschiedlich eingepreist»: Andreas Strobl, Fondsmanager bei Berenberg.","Deutsche Nebenwerte haben noch Aufholpotenzial","2023-02-24T04:04:36.614Z","Langfristig rentieren Aktien von Unternehmen aus der zweiten Reihe besser als Blue-Chip-Titel. The Market wirft einen Blick nach Deutschland – und sagt, wo sich ein Einstieg lohnen könnte.","ld.8498",{},3012,{},"CH","MKT",100,{},"Szenario «weiche Landung»: Schlägt bald die Stunde der Small Caps?,Analyse,Analyse, Finanznachrichten, The Market","2024-02-02T09:48:12+02:00","2024-02-02T06:21:34+02:00",{},"redaktion@themarket.ch","2024 The Market Media AG, Schweiz","index, follow, noarchive, noodp, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1",{},Array(0),"de","Sun, 24 Nov 2024 07:51:49 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