RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"/> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"/> <meta name="twitter:widgets:border-color" content="#ffffff"> <title> RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates | Climate Action Tracker </title> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="https://www.google-analytics.com"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com"> <meta name="description" content=""/> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"/> <meta property="og:title" content=" RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://climateactiontracker.org/static/images/generic-social.jpg"> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="180x180" href="/static/images/apple-touch-icon.png"> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="/static/images/favicon-32x32.png"> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="/static/images/favicon-16x16.png"> <link rel="manifest" href="/static/images/site.webmanifest"> <link rel="mask-icon" href="/static/images/safari-pinned-tab.svg" color="#5bbad5"> <link rel="shortcut icon" href="/static/images/favicon.ico"> <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Open+Sans:300,400,600,700,800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Ubuntu:300,400,500,700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"> <meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#da532c"> <meta name="msapplication-config" content="/static/images/browserconfig.xml"> <meta name="theme-color" content="#ffffff"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/CACHE/css/output.e3dd98602cf1.css" type="text/css">  <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-7KF1F1LP8G"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag() { dataLayer.push(arguments); } gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-7KF1F1LP8G'); </script> <script defer nomodule src="/static/js/ie.js"></script> <script defer src="/static/js/instant-page.js"></script> </head> <body class=""> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg bg-white navbar-light fixed-top"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="/"> <img alt="" class="navbar-brand__image" src="/static/images/logo.svg"/> </a> <button class="navbar-toggler" type="button" data-toggle="collapse" data-target="#navbarCollapse"> <span class="navbar-toggler-icon"></span> </button> <div class="collapse navbar-collapse" id="navbarCollapse"> <ul class="navbar-nav mr-auto"> <li class="nav-item "> <a class="nav-link" href="/">Home</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">About</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/about/">The Climate Action Tracker</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/about/the-consortium/">The Consortium</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/about/the-team/">The Team</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/about/contact-us/">Contact Us</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/about/privacypolicy_legal/">Privacy policy/Legal</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Global</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/global/temperatures/">Temperatures</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/global/cat-thermometer/">The CAT Thermometer</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/global/cat-emissions-gaps/">CAT Emissions Gap</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/global/climate-target-update-tracker/">Climate Target Update Tracker</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/global/cat-net-zero-target-evaluations/">CAT net zero target evaluations</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Sectors</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/sectors/aviation/">International Aviation</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/sectors/shipping/">International Shipping</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Countries</a> <div class="dropdown-menu countries-menu-dropdown"> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-md hidden-lg"> <li class="dropdown-item"> <form data-vanilla-url-jump-form> <select name="url_selector" class="form-control"> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/">- Select a country -</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/argentina/" >Argentina</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/australia/" >Australia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/bhutan/" >Bhutan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/brazil/" >Brazil</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/canada/" >Canada</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/chile/" >Chile</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/china/" >China</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/colombia/" >Colombia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/costa-rica/" >Costa Rica</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/eu/" >EU</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/egypt/" >Egypt</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/ethiopia/" >Ethiopia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/gabon/" >Gabon</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/germany/" >Germany</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/india/" >India</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/indonesia/" >Indonesia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/iran/" >Iran (Islamic Republic of)</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/japan/" >Japan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/kazakhstan/" >Kazakhstan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/kenya/" >Kenya</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/mexico/" >Mexico</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/morocco/" >Morocco</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/nepal/" >Nepal</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/new-zealand/" >New Zealand</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/nigeria/" >Nigeria</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/norway/" >Norway</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/peru/" >Peru</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/philippines/" >Philippines</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/russian-federation/" >Russian Federation</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/saudi-arabia/" >Saudi Arabia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/singapore/" >Singapore</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/south-africa/" >South Africa</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/south-korea/" >South Korea</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/switzerland/" >Switzerland</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/thailand/" >Thailand</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/gambia/" >The Gambia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/turkey/" >Türkiye</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/uae/" >UAE</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/usa/" >USA</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/ukraine/" >Ukraine</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/uk/" >United Kingdom</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/vietnam/" >Viet Nam</option> </select> </form> </li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__links"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/countries/overview/">Overview</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/countries/rating-system/">Rating system</a></li> </ul> <div class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries_wrapper"> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/argentina/">Argentina</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/australia/">Australia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/bhutan/">Bhutan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/brazil/">Brazil</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/canada/">Canada</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/chile/">Chile</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/china/">China</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/colombia/">Colombia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/costa-rica/">Costa Rica</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/eu/">EU</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/egypt/">Egypt</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/ethiopia/">Ethiopia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/gabon/">Gabon</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/germany/">Germany</a></li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/india/">India</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/indonesia/">Indonesia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/iran/">Iran (Islamic Republic of)</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/japan/">Japan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/kazakhstan/">Kazakhstan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/kenya/">Kenya</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/mexico/">Mexico</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/morocco/">Morocco</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/nepal/">Nepal</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/new-zealand/">New Zealand</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/nigeria/">Nigeria</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/norway/">Norway</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/peru/">Peru</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/philippines/">Philippines</a></li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/russian-federation/">Russian Federation</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/saudi-arabia/">Saudi Arabia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/singapore/">Singapore</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/south-africa/">South Africa</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/south-korea/">South Korea</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/switzerland/">Switzerland</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/thailand/">Thailand</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/gambia/">The Gambia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/turkey/">Türkiye</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/uae/">UAE</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/usa/">USA</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/ukraine/">Ukraine</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/uk/">United Kingdom</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/vietnam/">Viet Nam</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Methodology</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/methodology/">Introduction</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item flyout"> <a data-deep-toggle=".flyout" class="flyout__toggle" href="#">CAT rating methodology</a> <flyout-menu parent=".flyout" class="flyout__menu" aria-hidden="true"> <ul> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/">Overview</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/fair-share/">Fair share</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/modelled-domestic-pathways/">Modelled domestic pathways</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/finance/">Finance</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/lulucf/">LULUCF</a> </li> </ul> </flyout-menu> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/global-pathways/">Global emissions and temperature</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/estimating-national-emissions/">Estimating national emissions</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/paris-temperature-goal/">Paris temperature goal</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/land-use-and-forestry/">Land use, land-use change and forestry</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/net-zero-targets/">Net zero targets</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/rating-aviation-and-shipping/">Rating aviation and shipping</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Publications</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/publications/">Reports</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/publications/climate-governance/">Climate Governance Series</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item "> <a class="nav-link" href="/blog/">Blog</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown active"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Media</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/press/">News releases</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/press/media-contact/">Media Contact</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Data Explorer</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu dropdown-menu--last" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/cat-data-explorer/">Data Explorer</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/country-ratings/">Country ratings</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/country-emissions/">Country emissions analysis</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/sector-indicators/">Sector indicators and 1.5°C benchmarks</a> </li> </ul> </li> <span data-component-nav-search class="nav-item nav-search"> <a href="#" class="nav-link d-block nav-search__link"> <span class="icon icon-icons_4"></span> <span class="nav-search__link-text">Search</span> </a> </span> </ul> </div> </nav> <main class="main-content"> <nav class="nav-second"> <ul class="nav-second__menu mr-auto"> <li class="nav-item "><a class="nav-link" href="/press/">News releases</a></li> <li class="nav-item "><a class="nav-link" href="/press/media-contact/">Media Contact</a></li> </ul> </nav> <section class="headline " > <div class="container"> <header class="headline__wrapper"> <div class="submitted">Published 2024/11/14</div> <div class="headline__title-wrapper"> <h1 class="headline__title">RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates</h1> </div> </header> <div class="headline__right"> <div class="headline__social social hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <span class="social__label">Share</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?status=RELEASE%3A%20As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates%3A%20http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span> </a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span> </a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/&title=RELEASE%3A%20As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates&summary=&source=" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_36"></span> </a> </div> <div class="headline__social social hidden-md hidden-lg"> <div class="dropdown dropdown--blue dropdown--right"> <button class="dropdown-toggle social__label social__dropdown-toggle" type="button" id="shareButton" data-toggle="dropdown" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false"> Share </button> <div class="dropdown-menu dropdown-menu-right" aria-labelledby="shareButton"> <div class="dropdown-item"><a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?status=RELEASE%3A%20As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates%3A%20http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span> Twitter </a></div> <div class="dropdown-item"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span> Facebook </a></div> <div class="dropdown-item"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/&title=RELEASE%3A%20As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates&summary=&source=" class="" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_36"></span> Linkedin </a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="content"> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__press-release"> Press release </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><h4 data-block-key="v53jv"><b>... Trump policies make only slight increase in warming projections.</b><br/><b>... sets out 2035 NDC asks for big emitters and troika</b></h4></div> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="v53jv">The combined global effect of government action on climate change has flat-lined over the last three years, underscoring a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the lack of urgency on policies to cut emissions, the Climate Action Tracker said in its global update, released today at COP29 in Baku, along with 2035 target recommendations for big emitters and the "COP Presidencies Troika".</p></div> <div class="content-block"> <p class="text-center"> <a href="/publications/the-climate-crisis-worsens-the-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="btn btn-primary btn--icon-right btn--icon-arrow-right">Read the full briefing</a> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__warming-projections-global-update"> Warming projections global update </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_CAT-Thermometer_4Bars_Annotation.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> <a download class="btn btn-dark btn--icon-right btn--icon-download" href="/media/original_images/2024/11/CAT_2024-11_CAT-Thermometer_4Bars_Annotation.png">High resolution</a> </div> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="v53jv">2024 has been a year marked by minimal overall progress, with almost no new national climate targets or net zero pledges and fossil fuel emissions continuing to increase despite governments repeatedly agreeing to urgently strengthen their 2030 targets and to align them with the 1.5° goal of the Paris Agreement. <br/><br/>"We are clearly failing to bend the curve. As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent," said report lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics, a CAT partner organisation.<br/><br/>She cautioned that the current policy warming of 2.7° was a median estimate with a 50% chance of being higher or lower.</p><p data-block-key="7a8g8">"But our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of our projection being 3.0°C - or higher - and a 10% chance of being 3.6°C or higher, an absolutely catastrophic level of warming," she added.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__stagnating-warming-outlook-hides-competing-trends"> Stagnating warming outlook hides competing trends </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="v53jv">While renewables and electric vehicles are reporting record-breaking progress, with investments now double those for fossil fuels, fossil fuel subsidies are at an all-time high: funding for fossil fuel projects quadrupled between 2021 and 2022. The CAT projects emissions will peak by the end of the decade but at a much higher level than three years ago.</p><p data-block-key="3vhsn">“Rising emissions while renewables boom is not a paradox. In recent years fossil fuels won the race against renewables, leading to increasing emissions. But renewables surprise us each year with faster growth faster than expected, exponential growth that will soon see them crowd out fossil fuels. It allows much faster decline in emissions after 2030 than we thought only three years ago,” <b>said Prof Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, CAT partner organisation.</b></p><p data-block-key="5fje3">The CAT has also undertaken an initial calculation of the projected impact of US President-Elect Donald Trump's Project 2025 planned rollback of climate policies. If limited to the US, this could increase warming by around 0.04˚C under the CAT Current Policy Pathway (2). A permanent abandonment of the US net zero target, if accompanied by more countries rolling back or delaying action would have a bigger negative impact.</p><p data-block-key="ctul3">"Clearly, we won't know the full impact of the US elections until President-Elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the US now that will be difficult to stop. While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at significant scale," <b>said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.</b></p><p data-block-key="b55pi">"The key issue is whether countries stick together and continue to move forward with action, a Trump rollback of US policies, as damaging as it is, can be overcome."</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__so-what-should-governments-do?"> So what should governments do? </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="v53jv">Getting the world on track starts with the biggest emitters. The CAT also today released its recommended 2035 targets - that would be in line with modelled domestic pathways towards 1.5°C - for seven of the world's biggest emitters: <b>(China, the US, India, EU, Indonesia, Japan, Australia) along with the Troika countries (UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil).</b></p><p data-block-key="cfrmb">"Developed countries need to continue to supplement their domestic action with significant financial and other support for developing countries to constitute an equitable contribution to the 1.5°C limit," said Ana Missirliu, NewClimate Institute, one of the authors of the briefing.<br/>"Many developing countries can only achieve sufficient climate action with significant financial and other support. COP29 is where we need to see this financial commitment,"</p><p data-block-key="c350d">Together, the seven large emitters were responsible for 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. They need to show international leadership to drive climate action. </p><p data-block-key="5nccs">The Troika countries (UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil), who have released a Roadmap to 1.5˚C, all plan to extract more fossil fuels: a massive mismatch between words and action. The ten countries together produce a total of 63% of global emissions.</p><h4 data-block-key="80p8l">What would be high ambition in line with 1.5˚C for these countries? </h4></div> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_Table_1.5alignedNDCs-InclExcl-LULU.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> </div> <div class="content-block"> <p class="text-center"> <a href="/publications/the-climate-crisis-worsens-the-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="btn btn-primary btn--icon-right btn--icon-arrow-right">Read the full briefing</a> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="stay-informed v-padding--3 text-center text-white" style="background-image: url('/static/images/coffee-bg.jpg')"> <div class="container"> <h3 class="stay-informed__top-text bottom-line bottom-line--white bottom-line--120-120">Stay informed</h3> <p class="stay-informed__bottom-text">Subscribe to our newsletter</p> <form target="_blank" class="stay-informed__form mx-auto" method="get" action="https://climateactiontracker.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe"> <div class="form-group"> <span class="icon icon-icons_42"></span> <input type="hidden" name="u" value="65f38fbdfe22c9fb33f53e959"/> <input type="hidden" name="id" value="77c07fb002"/> <label class="sr-only" for="stay-informed__email2">E-mail</label> <input type="email" name="MERGE0" class="form-control form-control-lg" id="stay-informed__email2" placeholder="e-mail"> <button type="submit" class="btn"><span class="icon icon-icons_105"></span></button> </div> </form> <div class="stay-informed__social-media"> <a href="mailto:info@climateactiontracker.org" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_42"></span></a> <a href="https://twitter.com/climateactiontr" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span></a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/climateactiontr/" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span></a> </div> </div> </section> </main> <footer class="footer v-padding--3"> <div class="container"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-xl-8"> <nav class="footer__menu nav justify-content-center justify-content-xl-start"> <a href="/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Home</a> <a href="/about/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">The Climate Action Tracker</a> <a href="/global/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Global</a> <a href="/sectors/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Sectors</a> <a href="/countries/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Countries</a> <a href="/methodology/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Methodology</a> <a href="/publications/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Publications</a> <a href="/blog/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Blog</a> <a href="/press/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link active">News releases</a> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Data Explorer</a> </nav> </div> <div class="col-xl-4"> <div class="footer__logos d-flex justify-content-center justify-content-xl-end"> <a href="https://newclimate.org/" class="footer__logos-logo"> <img alt="" class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/Logo-Footer-NewClimate.height-65.png"> </a> <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/" class="footer__logos-logo"> <img alt="" class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/Logo-Footer-ClimateAnalytics.height-65.png"> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer__credits text-center"> Copyright Climate Action Tracker | <a href="/about/privacypolicy_legal/">Privacy policy/Legal</a> </div> </div> </footer> <cookie-banner class="cookie-banner" data-cookie-banner onload="window.Cookiebanner.init();"> <div class="container"> <div class="cookie-banner__content"> <div class="cookie-banner__text"> <p>This website saves small pieces of information (cookies) on your device to provide you with an improved user experience, and to allow us to analyse our website’s traffic. You can disable the usage of cookies in your browser settings. If you continue to browse this website without changing your settings, you consent to the use of cookies and other similar technologies. Please visit our <a href="/about/privacypolicy_legal/">Privacy Policy</a> page for further details.</p> </div> <button type="button" class="cookie-banner__cta btn btn-primary btn-sm" data-cookie-banner-button onclick="window.Cookiebanner.createCookielawRecord()">Got it</button> </div> </div> </cookie-banner> <script src="/static/CACHE/js/output.7c6e62e50bb0.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/static/js/runtime-main.77da4b80.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/static/js/4.22108b47.chunk.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/static/js/main.23f697ed.chunk.js"></script> </body> </html>

CINXE.COM

RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates | Climate Action Tracker