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Kazakhstan | Climate Action Tracker
<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"/> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"/> <meta name="twitter:widgets:border-color" content="#ffffff"> <title> Kazakhstan | Climate Action Tracker </title> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="https://www.google-analytics.com"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com"> <meta name="description" content=""/> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"/> <meta property="og:title" content=" Kazakhstan"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT_2024-01_Twitter_RatingBanner_.2e16d0ba.fill-1200x630.png"> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="180x180" href="/static/images/apple-touch-icon.png"> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="/static/images/favicon-32x32.png"> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="/static/images/favicon-16x16.png"> <link 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</ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown active"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Countries</a> <div class="dropdown-menu countries-menu-dropdown"> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-md hidden-lg"> <li class="dropdown-item"> <form data-vanilla-url-jump-form> <select name="url_selector" class="form-control"> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/">- Select a country -</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/argentina/" >Argentina</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/australia/" >Australia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/bhutan/" >Bhutan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/brazil/" >Brazil</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/canada/" >Canada</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/chile/" >Chile</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/china/" >China</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/colombia/" >Colombia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/costa-rica/" >Costa Rica</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/eu/" >EU</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/egypt/" >Egypt</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/ethiopia/" >Ethiopia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/gabon/" >Gabon</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/germany/" >Germany</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/india/" >India</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/indonesia/" >Indonesia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/iran/" >Iran (Islamic Republic of)</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/japan/" >Japan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/kazakhstan/" selected="selected">Kazakhstan</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/kenya/" >Kenya</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/mexico/" >Mexico</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/morocco/" >Morocco</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/nepal/" >Nepal</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/new-zealand/" >New Zealand</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/nigeria/" >Nigeria</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/norway/" >Norway</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/peru/" >Peru</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/philippines/" >Philippines</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/russian-federation/" >Russian Federation</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/saudi-arabia/" >Saudi Arabia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/singapore/" >Singapore</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/south-africa/" >South Africa</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/south-korea/" >South Korea</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/switzerland/" >Switzerland</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/thailand/" >Thailand</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/gambia/" >The Gambia</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/turkey/" >Türkiye</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/uae/" >UAE</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/usa/" >USA</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/ukraine/" >Ukraine</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/uk/" >United Kingdom</option> <option class="dropdown-second__select-option" value="/countries/vietnam/" >Viet Nam</option> </select> </form> </li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__links"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/countries/overview/">Overview</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/countries/rating-system/">Rating system</a></li> </ul> <div class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries_wrapper"> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/argentina/">Argentina</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/australia/">Australia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/bhutan/">Bhutan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/brazil/">Brazil</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/canada/">Canada</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/chile/">Chile</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/china/">China</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/colombia/">Colombia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/costa-rica/">Costa Rica</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/eu/">EU</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/egypt/">Egypt</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/ethiopia/">Ethiopia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/gabon/">Gabon</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/germany/">Germany</a></li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/india/">India</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/indonesia/">Indonesia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/iran/">Iran (Islamic Republic of)</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/japan/">Japan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/kazakhstan/">Kazakhstan</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/kenya/">Kenya</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/mexico/">Mexico</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/morocco/">Morocco</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/nepal/">Nepal</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/new-zealand/">New Zealand</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/nigeria/">Nigeria</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/norway/">Norway</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/peru/">Peru</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/philippines/">Philippines</a></li> </ul> <ul class="countries-menu-dropdown__countries hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/russian-federation/">Russian Federation</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/saudi-arabia/">Saudi Arabia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/singapore/">Singapore</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/south-africa/">South Africa</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/south-korea/">South Korea</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/switzerland/">Switzerland</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/thailand/">Thailand</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/gambia/">The Gambia</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/turkey/">Türkiye</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/uae/">UAE</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/usa/">USA</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/ukraine/">Ukraine</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/uk/">United Kingdom</a></li> <li class="dropdown-item hidden-xs hidden-sm"><a href="/countries/vietnam/">Viet Nam</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Methodology</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/methodology/">Introduction</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item flyout"> <a data-deep-toggle=".flyout" class="flyout__toggle" href="#">CAT rating methodology</a> <flyout-menu parent=".flyout" class="flyout__menu" aria-hidden="true"> <ul> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/">Overview</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/fair-share/">Fair share</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/modelled-domestic-pathways/">Modelled domestic pathways</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/finance/">Finance</a> </li> <li class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/lulucf/">LULUCF</a> </li> </ul> </flyout-menu> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/global-pathways/">Global emissions and temperature</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/estimating-national-emissions/">Estimating national emissions</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/paris-temperature-goal/">Paris temperature goal</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/land-use-and-forestry/">Land use, land-use change and forestry</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/net-zero-targets/">Net zero targets</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/methodology/rating-aviation-and-shipping/">Rating aviation and shipping</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#">Publications</a> <ul class="dropdown-menu" aria-hidden="true"> <li class="dropdown-item"><a href="/publications/">Reports</a></li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".flyout__menu" class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/publications/climate-governance/">Climate Governance Series</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item "> <a class="nav-link" href="/blog/">Blog</a> </li> <li data-deep-toggle-propagate-target=".dropdown-menu" class="nav-item dropdown deep-dropdown"> <a data-deep-toggle=".deep-dropdown" class="nav-link 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class="dropdown-item"> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/sector-indicators/">Sector indicators and 1.5°C benchmarks</a> </li> </ul> </li> <span data-component-nav-search class="nav-item nav-search"> <a href="#" class="nav-link d-block nav-search__link"> <span class="icon icon-icons_4"></span> <span class="nav-search__link-text">Search</span> </a> </span> </ul> </div> </nav> <main class="main-content"> <section class="headline--3" style="background-image: url('/static/images/slide-mask-3.png');"> <div class="container"> <div class="headline__first"> <div class="headline__flag"> <a href="/countries/kazakhstan/"><img class="img-fluid" src="/static/countries/flags/4x3/kz.svg" alt=""></a> </div> <div class="headline__info"> <h1 class="headline__title">Kazakhstan</h1> <form data-vanilla-url-jump-form class="headline__revisions"> <label for="url_selector" class="headline__revisions-label">Choose update to view</label> <select id="url_selector" name="url_selector" class="headline__revisions-select"> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/" selected="selected">31 Jan 2024</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2022-09-21/" >21 Sep 2022</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2021-09-15/" >15 Sep 2021</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2020-11-27/" >27 Nov 2020</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2019-12-02/" > 2 Dec 2019</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2019-09-19/" >19 Sep 2019</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2018-12-03/" > 3 Dec 2018</option> <option value="/countries/kazakhstan/2018-04-30/" >30 Apr 2018</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2016-11-02_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" > 2 Nov 2016</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2015-10-28_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" >28 Oct 2015</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2014-12-06_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" > 6 Dec 2014</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2013-11-20_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" >20 Nov 2013</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2012-11-30_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" >30 Nov 2012</option> <option value="/media/documents/2018/4/CAT_2011-06-25_CountryAssessment_Kazakhstan.pdf" >25 Jun 2011</option> </select> </form> </div> </div> <div class="headline__second"> <div class="headline__social social hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <span class="social__label">Share</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?status=Kazakhstan%3A%20http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/countries/kazakhstan/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span> </a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/countries/kazakhstan/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span> </a> <a 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<i>against modelled domestic pathways</i></p></dt> <dd><b>Almost Sufficient</b></dd> <dd><i>< 2°C World</i></dd> </dl> </div> <div class="ratings-matrix__second-row-cell ratings-matrix__tile--ORANGE"> <dl> <dt><p>Unconditional NDC target<br> <i>against fair share</i></p></dt> <dd><b>Insufficient</b></dd> <dd><i>< 3°C World</i></dd> </dl> </div> <div class="ratings-matrix__second-row-cell ratings-matrix__tile--GRAY"> <dl> <dt>Climate finance</dt> <dd><b>Not assessed</b></dd> </dl> </div> </div> <div class="ratings-matrix__third-row"> <div class="ratings-matrix__third-row-cell ratings-matrix__third-row-cell--ORANGE"> <dl class="ratings-matrix__net_zero_target"> <dt>Net zero target</dt> <dd> <p>year</p> <b>2060</b> </dd> <dd> <p>Comprehensiveness rated as</p> <b class="ratings-matrix__label ratings-matrix__label--ORANGE"> Average </b> </dd> </dl> </div> <div class="ratings-matrix__third-row-cell ratings-matrix__third-row-cell--DARK_GRAY"> <dl class="ratings-matrix__land_use_forestry"> <dt>Land use & forestry</dt> <dd> <b class="ratings-matrix__label ratings-matrix__label--DARK_GRAY"> Not significant </b> </dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="country-tabs"> <div class="container"> <h3 class="country-tabs__header bottom-line bottom-line--primary bottom-line--130"> Country summary</h3> <ul class="nav nav-pills"> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link active" href="/countries/kazakhstan/">Summary</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="/countries/kazakhstan/targets/">Targets</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="/countries/kazakhstan/policies-action/">Policies & action</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="/countries/kazakhstan/net-zero-targets/">Net zero targets</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="/countries/kazakhstan/assumptions/">Assumptions</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="/countries/kazakhstan/sources/">Sources</a> </li> </ul> </div> </section> <div class="container b-padding--3"> <div data-component-graph-embed data-props-footnotes="" data-props-graph-image-url="/media/images/CAT_2024-01_Graph_SplitSummary_Kazakhstan.width-1110.png" data-props-graph-hires-image-url="/media/images/CAT_2024-01_Graph_SplitSummary_Kazakhstan.original.png" data-props-scenario-data-url="/documents/1270/202309_CAT_AssessmentData_KAZ.xlsx" data-props-fair-share-data-url="" data-props-how-to-url="/countries/cat-graphs/" > </div> </div> <section data-vanilla-collapsible-sections class="b-padding--3"> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__overview"> Overview </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="lqwdz"><b>Kazakhstan enhanced its long-term climate ambition by enshrining its net zero by 2060 target into law in February 2023, but then failed to increase short-term ambition in its updated NDC submission to the UNFCCC in June 2023, leaving its previously modest emission reduction targets for 2030 unchanged. Recent policy developments pull in opposite directions and continue to support fossil fuels more, driving emissions up.</b></p><p data-block-key="7iipu"><b>CAT projections show that Kazakhstan will not meet its climate targets, as emissions will grow until 2035 (at least) under current policies. As a result, the CAT rates Kazakhstan’s overall climate action as “Insufficient”.</b></p><p data-block-key="cl7e9">Kazakhstan’s economy and government rely heavily on fossil fuels for energy, industry, exports, and revenue. As a result, Kazakhstan has the world's 16th highest per capita and fourth highest per GDP emissions. However, aging and poorly regulated fossil fuel infrastructure and industries are failing to meet the needs of citizens who have contended with energy shortages more regularly in recent years. Renewable energy and more efficient technologies are helping to mitigate energy supply shortages and emissions, though Kazakhstan’s vast renewable resources largely remain untapped.</p><p data-block-key="279hf">To limit global warming to 1.5ºC, the government need to build on its success with scaling up renewables in recent years. Though starting from a low base, renewable energy generation has trebled since 2019 and increased 20-fold since 2011. Policies such as the emissions trading system (ETS) and renewable energy auctions have contributed to this shift. The government raised the 2030 renewable energy target from 10 to 15% in 2021.</p><p data-block-key="3mo8t">In addition to policies supporting renewable energy, the government will need to roll back those that support fossil fuels to avoid carbon lock-in and reduce transition risks. For example, the government would need to revisit plans for new coal power generation (announced at the end of 2022), the introduction of new fiscal incentives for fossil fuel exploration and production (most recent additions in 2023), and depending on fossil gas to meet its energy needs (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023a).</p><p data-block-key="cil39">To improve the credibility and implementation of Kazakhstan’s long-term climate ambitions, the government could prioritise the following actions:</p><ul><li data-block-key="4caej"><b>Develop a clear and enforceable net zero policy implementation plan:</b> the government needs to translate its net zero by 2060 strategy into an implementable and enforceable plan to achieve its goals. Legally binding sectoral targets, well timed and coordinated policy packages, and clear accountability and robust review processes are features that could help.</li><li data-block-key="5on"><b>Increase ambition of short-term targets in the NDC and other policies.</b> Short-term emissions reduction and related targets have not increased - or increased only marginally - in the last decade and can no longer be considered ambitious. Kazakhstan would need update such targets as soon as possible.</li><li data-block-key="atfjb"><b>Boost renewable energy roll-out.</b> Recent high-pace growth in renewable energy suggests there is significant potential to scale up. Further Increasing renewable energy targets is a clear first step, which would allow for more auctions. Additional efforts should focus on ensuring grid capacity keeps up with renewable energy growth, including extending the network in poorly connected northern regions.</li><li data-block-key="be39c"><b>Develop a transparent 1.5ºC compatible coal phase-out plan for a just transition.</b> Coal accounts for 55% of emissions, 70% of power generation, is the predominant source of heating in homes, and a major employer. A coal phase-out plan will be critical to guiding such a transition and ensuring it is just.</li></ul></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <div class="section-header" id="section__insufficient"> <div class="ratings-section-header ratings-matrix__tile--ORANGE"> <dl> <dt>Overall rating</dt> <dd>Insufficient</dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="lqwdz">The CAT rates Kazakhstan’s climate targets and policies as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.</p><p data-block-key="bs8pb">Kazakhstan’s NDC is composed of a conditional and unconditional targets. Its conditional NDC target is rated as “Almost sufficient” against modelled domestic pathways, and its unconditional NDC target is rated as “Insufficient” against its fair share contribution to climate action. To achieve its targets, Kazakhstan would need to significantly cut its emissions through more ambitious policies and action.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <div class="section-header" id="section__insufficient"> <div class="ratings-section-header ratings-matrix__tile--ORANGE"> <dl> <dt><p>Policies and action <br><i>against fair share</i></p></dt> <dd>Insufficient</dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="lqwdz">We rate Kazakhstan’s policies and action as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair-share contribution. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. Kazakhstan needs to implement more stringent policies, for which it will need additional support.</p><p data-block-key="a64gm">Kazakhstan’s emissions under current policy projections continue to increase, in contradiction to the government’s NDC and its net zero targets. Plans for further development of and investment in fossil fuels, including the construction of new coal power plants and ramping up fossil gas and oil production, are particularly concerning. These plans fail to acknowledge the short-term steps necessary to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emissions pathway, could deepen carbon lock-in, and increases transition risks.</p><p data-block-key="44oui">A recent uptick in renewable energy generation capacity, enabled by supportive government policies, offers some hope. However, renewable energy penetration is still low at only 2% of total primary energy and around 11% of power generation, of which more than half comes from existing hydropower. Still, at around 2.5 GW, solar and wind power capacity have almost trebled since 2019 and government targets for 2030 were increased from 10 to 15% in 2021. Kazakhstan is on track to meet these targets.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <div class="section-header" id="section__almost-sufficient"> <div class="ratings-section-header ratings-matrix__tile--YELLOW"> <dl> <dt><p>Conditional NDC target<br> <i>against modelled domestic pathways</i></p></dt> <dd>Almost Sufficient</dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="sykcv">We rate the conditional NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.</p><p data-block-key="bcmds">Kazakhstan did not increase the ambition of its conditional emissions reduction target in its NDC update, submitted to the UNFCCC on 27 June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). Government retained an economy-wide emission reduction target for 2030 of 25% relative to the 1990 base year.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <div class="section-header" id="section__insufficient"> <div class="ratings-section-header ratings-matrix__tile--ORANGE"> <dl> <dt><p>Unconditional NDC target<br> <i>against fair share</i></p></dt> <dd>Insufficient</dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="sykcv">We rate the unconditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Kazakhstan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.</p><p data-block-key="1v3rd">Kazakhstan did not increase the ambition of its unconditional emissions reduction target in its NDC update, submitted to the UNFCCC on 27 June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). Government retained an economy-wide emission reduction target for 2030 of 15% relative to the 1990 base year.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <div class="section-header" id="section__average"> <div class="ratings-section-header ratings-matrix__tile--ORANGE"> <dl> <dt>Net zero target</dt> <dd>Average</dd> </dl> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="l5psk">Kazakhstan first announced its intention to reach “carbon neutrality” by 2060 during the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020. On 2 February 2023, the President of Kazakhstan approved the resultant Strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, thereby enshrining the net zero target in law. Kazakhstan has not submitted the strategy as an official long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of November 2023.</p><p data-block-key="fh4dc">There is still significant scope for Kazakhstan to improve the transparency, target architecture, and scope of its carbon neutrality target. We evaluate the net zero target as: “Average”.</p><p data-block-key="92ect">For the full analysis <a href="/countries/kazakhstan/2024-01-31/net-zero-targets/">click here</a>.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="latest-publications b-padding--3"> <div class="container"> <h3 class="bottom-line bottom-line--primary bottom-line--130">Further analysis</h3> <div class="row-listing"> <a class="row-listing__item" href="/countries/kazakhstan/targets/"> <div class="row-listing__item-image"> <img alt="Targets" class="img-fluid" src=" /media/images/Icon-PledgesTargets.2e16d0ba.fill-128x128.png"> </div> <div class="row-listing__item-title">Targets</div> </a> <a class="row-listing__item" href="/countries/kazakhstan/policies-action/"> <div class="row-listing__item-image"> <img alt="Policies & action" class="img-fluid" src=" /media/images/Icon-CurrentPolicies.2e16d0ba.fill-128x128.png"> </div> <div class="row-listing__item-title">Policies & action</div> </a> <a class="row-listing__item" href="/countries/kazakhstan/net-zero-targets/"> <div class="row-listing__item-image"> <img alt="Net zero targets" class="img-fluid" src=" /media/images/Icon-MitigationOptions.2e16d0ba.fill-128x128.png"> </div> <div class="row-listing__item-title">Net zero targets</div> </a> <a class="row-listing__item" href="/countries/kazakhstan/assumptions/"> <div class="row-listing__item-image"> <img alt="Assumptions" class="img-fluid" src=" /media/images/Icon-Assumtions.2e16d0ba.fill-128x128.png"> </div> <div class="row-listing__item-title">Assumptions</div> </a> <a class="row-listing__item" href="/countries/kazakhstan/sources/"> <div class="row-listing__item-image"> <img alt="Sources" class="img-fluid" src=" /media/images/Icon-Sources.2e16d0ba.fill-128x128.png"> </div> <div class="row-listing__item-title">Sources</div> </a> </div> </div> </section> <section class="latest-news b-padding--3"> <div class="container"> <h3 class="bottom-line bottom-line--primary 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