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If you believe you were blocked by mistake, you can find additional information and instructions in the <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/No_open_proxies" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/No open proxies">No open proxies</a> global policy. </p> Otherwise, to discuss the block please <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Steward_requests/Global" class="extiw" title="m:Steward requests/Global">post a request for review on Meta-Wiki</a>. You could also send an email to the <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Stewards" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/Stewards">stewards</a> <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/VRT" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/VRT">VRT</a> queue at <kbd>stewards@wikimedia.org</kbd> including all above details.</div></div><hr /> <p>U het toestemming om die bronteks te bekyk en te kopieer. </p><textarea readonly="" accesskey="," id="wpTextbox1" cols="80" rows="25" style="" class="mw-editfont-monospace" lang="af" dir="ltr" name="wpTextbox1">== Koue Oorlogteorieë == Kahn se belangrikste bydraes was die verskillende [[strategie]]ë wat hy tydens die [[Koue Oorlog]] ontwikkel het om die "ondenkbare" – naamlik kernoorlogvoering – te oorweeg deur toepassings van spelteorie te gebruik. Kahn word dikwels genoem (met [[Pierre Wack]]) as 'n vader van scenario-beplanning.<ref>Schwartz, Peter, ''The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,'' New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991, bl. 7</ref> Gedurende die middel van die 1950's was die [[Dwight D. Eisenhower|Eisenhower-administrasie]] se heersende kernstrategie een van "massiewe vergelding", afgekondig deur die staatssekretaris [[John Foster Dulles]]. Volgens hierdie teorie, wat die ''New Look'' genoem word, was die Sowjet-weermag aansienlik groter as dié van die Verenigde State en het dit dus 'n potensiële veiligheidsbedreiging op te veel gebiede voorgestel sodat die Amerikaners nie dadelik doeltreffend kon optree nie. Gevolglik het die Verenigde State geen ander keuse as om te verklaar dat sy reaksie op enige Sowjet-aggressie enige plek 'n kernaanval sou wees. Kahn beskou hierdie teorie onhoudbaar omdat dit onderontwikkeld en moontlik destabiliserend was. Hy het aangevoer dat die ''New-Look''-teorie 'n kernaanval uitgenooi het deur die [[Sowjetunie]] 'n aansporing te gee om enige konvensionele gelokaliseerde militêre optrede êrens ter wêreld vooraf te gaan met 'n kernaanval op die Amerikaanse bomwerperbasis, waardeur die Amerikaners se kernbedreiging dadelik vernietig word en die Verenigde State in 'n landoorlog te dwing wat dit probeer vermy het. In 1960, soos die Koue Oorlogspannings ná die [[Spoetnik 1]]-krisis naby hul spits was en te midde van 'n toenemende "missielgaping" tussen die Verenigde State en die Sowjetunie, het Kahn ''On Thermonuclear War'' gepubliseer, waarvan die titel duidelik verwys na oorlog, soortgelyk soos die klassieke 19de-eeuse verhandeling deur die Duitse militêre strateeg [[Carl von Clausewitz]]. Kahn het sy teorie berus op twee premise, een voor die hand liggend, een hoogs omstrede. Eerstens was die kernoorlog natuurlik haalbaar, aangesien die Verenigde State en die Sowjetunie het massiewe kernarsenale op mekaar gerig gehad het. Tweedens, soos enige ander oorlog, was dit wenbaar. Kahn het geargumenteer vir afskrikking en het geglo dat indien die Sowjetunie geglo het dat die Verenigde State 'n tweede aanvalsvermoeë gehad het, sou dit groter afskrikkings waarde bied, wat hy in sy referaat "''The Nature and Feasibility of War and Deterrence''" geskryf het.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P1888.html |title=The Nature and Feasibility of War and Deterrence |last=Kahn |first=Herman |date=1960 |language=en |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200115053017/https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P1888.html |archive-date=15 Januarie 2020 |url-status=live |df=dmy-all}}</ref> Of honderde miljoene mense gesterf het of 'n paar groot stede vernietig is, het Kahn aangevoer, die lewe sal aangaan – soos byvoorbeeld na die [[Swart Dood]] in [[Europa]] gedurende die [[14de eeu]], of in [[Japan]] na die beperkte kernaanval in 1945 – in teenstelling met die konvensionele, heersende oordeelsdag scenarios. Verskeie uitkomste kan veel verskrikliker wees as wat tot dusver getuig of voorgestel is, maar sommige van hulle kan egter veel erger wees as ander. Maak nie saak hoe versriklik die verwoesting was nie, Kahn het geargumenteer dat die oorlewendes uiteindelik nie die dooies sal "beny nie" en om anders te glo sal beteken dat afskrikking in die eerste plek onnodig was. As Amerikaners onwillig was om die gevolge van 'n kernuitruil te aanvaar, maak nie saak hoe verskriklik nie, dan het hulle beslis geen besigheid gehad om hul gewilligheid verklaar om aan te val nie. Sonder 'n onbeperkte, onambivalente bereidwilligheid "om die knoppie te druk", was die hele reeks voorbereidings en militêre ontplooiings bloot 'n uitgebreide bluff. Die basis van sy werk was [[stelselteorie]] en spelteorie soos toegepas op ekonomiese en militêre strategie. Kahn het geargumenteer dat die Sowjetunie vir die afskrikking oortuig moes wees dat die Verenigde State 'n tweede aanvalvermoeë gehad het om die Politburo in geen onduidelikheid te laat dat daar selfs 'n volkome gekoördineerde massale aanval 'n mate van vergelding sou wees wat hulle ook verwoes sou laat: Op die minimum moet 'n voldoende afskrikmiddel vir die Verenigde State 'n objektiewe grondslag vir 'n Sowjet-berekening gee wat hulle sal oortuig dat, ongeag hoe vaardig of vernuftig hulle is, 'n aanval op die Verenigde State sou lei tot 'n baie hoë risiko indien nie sekerheid van grootskaalse vernietiging aan die Sowjet-burgerlike samelewing en militêre magte nie. Oppervlakkig lyk hierdie redenasie soos die ouer leerstelling van wedersydse versekerde vernietiging (WVV) ([[Engels]]: ''Mutual Assured Destruction'' – MAD) as gevolg van John von Neumann, hoewel Kahn een van sy vokale kritici was. Sterk konvensionele magte was ook 'n belangrike element in Kahn se strategiese denke, want hy het aangevoer dat die spanning gegenereer deur relatief klein flitspunte wêreldwyd opgelos kan word sonder om die kernopsie te gebruik. </textarea><div class="templatesUsed"></div><p id="mw-returnto">Keer terug na <a href="/wiki/Herman_Kahn" title="Herman Kahn">Herman Kahn</a>.</p> <noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Ontsluit van "<a dir="ltr" href="https://af.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn">https://af.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks catlinks-allhidden" data-mw="interface"></div> </div> </main> </div> <div class="mw-footer-container"> <footer id="footer" class="mw-footer" > <ul id="footer-info"> </ul> <ul id="footer-places"> <li id="footer-places-privacy"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy">Privaatheidsbeleid</a></li> <li id="footer-places-about"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Oor">Inligting oor Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-disclaimers"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Voorwaardes">Vrywaring</a></li> <li id="footer-places-wm-codeofconduct"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Universal_Code_of_Conduct">Gedragskode</a></li> <li id="footer-places-developers"><a href="https://developer.wikimedia.org">Ontwikkelaars</a></li> <li id="footer-places-statslink"><a href="https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/af.wikipedia.org">Statistieke</a></li> <li id="footer-places-cookiestatement"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Cookie_statement">Koekieverklaring</a></li> <li id="footer-places-mobileview"><a href="//af.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Herman_Kahn&action=edit&section=2&mobileaction=toggle_view_mobile" class="noprint stopMobileRedirectToggle">Selfoonweergawe</a></li> </ul> <ul id="footer-icons" class="noprint"> <li id="footer-copyrightico"><a href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/static/images/footer/wikimedia-button.svg" width="84" height="29" alt="Wikimedia Foundation" loading="lazy"></a></li> <li id="footer-poweredbyico"><a href="https://www.mediawiki.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/w/resources/assets/poweredby_mediawiki.svg" alt="Powered by MediaWiki" width="88" height="31" loading="lazy"></a></li> </ul> </footer> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-settings" id="p-dock-bottom"> <ul></ul> </div><script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.config.set({"wgHostname":"mw-web.codfw.canary-67c44fb794-jfqd8","wgBackendResponseTime":152,"wgPageParseReport":{"limitreport":{"cputime":"0.004","walltime":"0.005","ppvisitednodes":{"value":17,"limit":1000000},"postexpandincludesize":{"value":706,"limit":2097152},"templateargumentsize":{"value":0,"limit":2097152},"expansiondepth":{"value":2,"limit":100},"expensivefunctioncount":{"value":0,"limit":500},"unstrip-depth":{"value":0,"limit":20},"unstrip-size":{"value":0,"limit":5000000},"entityaccesscount":{"value":0,"limit":400},"timingprofile":["100.00% 0.000 1 -total"]},"cachereport":{"origin":"mw-web.codfw.canary-67c44fb794-jfqd8","timestamp":"20241128004921","ttl":2592000,"transientcontent":false}}});});</script> </body> </html>