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<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <html> <head> <title>Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page</title> <meta name="DC.title" content="Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.description" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.subject" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.creator" content="NOAA's National Weather Service"> <meta name="DC.date.created" scheme="ISO8601" content="2002-01-01"> <meta name="DC.date.reviewed" scheme="ISO8601" content="2005-12-12"> <meta name="DC.language" scheme="DCTERMS.RFC1766" content="EN-US"> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">  <meta content="NCEP Web Team" name="GENERATOR">  <link href="nwscwi/main.css" type="text/css" rel="STYLESHEET"> <link rel="icon" href="/favicon.ico"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions" 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Opportunities</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link">  <a href="https://www.weather.gov/search">Search</a> </div> <div class="dropsearch"> <div class="site-search"> <form method="get" action="https://search.usa.gov/search" style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0;"> <input type="hidden" name="v:project" value="firstgov" /> <label for="query">Search For</label> <input type="text" name="query" id="query" size="12" /> <input type="submit" value="Go" /> <p> <input type="radio" name="affiliate" checked="checked" value="nws.noaa.gov" id="nws" /> <label for="nws" class="search-scope">NWS</label> <input type="radio" name="affiliate" value="noaa.gov" id="noaa" /> <label for="noaa" class="search-scope">All NOAA</label> </p> </form> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div>    <div id="hazards" class="haz-content"> <a name="contents"></a> <div class="haz-border"> <div class="haz-wrn"> <a href='http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/' title='Weather Ready Nation'><img class='haz-wrn-logo' src='/para/css/images/WRN_emblem_small.png' alt='Weather Ready Nation' /></a> </div> <div class="haz-one"> <table class="haz-one-table" summary="table that displays the WPC Hazards (Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3) for Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow, and Freezing Rain"> <thead> <tr> <th id='hz-hazards'>Hazard</th> <th id='hz-dayone'>Mar 14</th><th id='hz-daytwo'>Mar 15</th><th id='hz-daythree'>Mar 16</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="odd"> <td headers='hz-hazards'>Excessive Rainfall</td> <td headers='hz-dayone' title='There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Day 1' class='marginal'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1' target='_blank'>Marginal</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Day 2' class='moderate'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2' target='_blank'>Moderate</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Day 3' class='marginal'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3' target='_blank'>Marginal</a></td> </tr> <tr><td headers='hz-hazards'>Heavy Snow (≥ 4”)</td><td headers='hz-dayone' title='There is a High Risk of Snow Accumulations ≥ 4” on Day 1' class='high'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>High</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There is a High Risk of Snow Accumulations ≥ 4” on Day 2' class='high'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>High</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There is a High Risk of Snow Accumulations ≥ 4” on Day 3' class='high'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>High</a></td></tr><tr class='odd'> <td headers='hz-hazards'>Ice (≥ 0.25”)</td><td headers='hz-dayone' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations ≥ 0.25” on Day 1' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations ≥ 0.25” on Day 2' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations ≥ 0.25” on Day 3' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="haz-two"> <table class="haz-two-table" summary="table that displays WPC/CPC hazards for Days 4-7">  <tr class="odd">  <td class="threats" headers='hz-day47'> <div style="margin-left:2em;margin-right:2em;"> <a href="/threats/threats.php" style="background:#7FFF7F;">WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast</a> <div style="line-height:75%;"> <div> <a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" style="background:#7FFF7F;">Winter Storm Severity Index</a> <div style="line-height:75%;"> <div> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk" style="background:#7FFF7F;">Experimental HeatRisk</a> </div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="haz-question"> <div><a title="More About WPC's Hazards Table" target="_blank" href='/para/para_includes/WPC_Hazards_Table.pdf'><img class="question" src="../para/para_css/images/question.png" height="18"></img></a></div> </div> </div> </div>   <div class="product-body"> <div id='product' class='product-tabs-container'>  <ul id="toc" class="product-tabs"> <li><a href="#ovw" title="national overview"><span>Overview</span></a></li> <li><a href="#sfc" title="surface analysis"><span>Surface Analysis</span></a></li> <li><a href="#frt" title="fronts and pressures through day 7"><span>Fronts</span></a></li> <li><a href="#qpf" title="quantitative precipitation forecasts"><span>QPF</span></a></li> <li><a href="#ero" title="rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance"><span>Excessive Rain</span></a></li> <li><a href="#wwx" title="winter weather forecasts"><span>Winter Wx</span></a></li> <li><a href="#med" title="medium range forecasts (day 3-7)"><span>Day 3–7</span></a></li> <li><a href="#tls" title="forecaster toolbox"><span>Forecast Tools</span></a></li> </ul>  <div id='container' class='product-container'> <div class="product-content"> <div class="product-content-new" id="ovw">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewo:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewo').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewo:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewo').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firsto').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-ovw' class='display-content-max-h'> <div class='display-overview-h'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">National Forecast Chart</div> <div id='TABday1S-ovw' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-ovw' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Sat Mar 15, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-ovw' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Sun Mar 16, 2025</div>    <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday1','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday1','3')" id="firsto" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-ovw" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday2','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday2','3')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-ovw" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday3','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday3','3')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-ovw" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div>  <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-ovw" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('ovw');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" alt="options" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-ovw" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Image Format: <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="ovw-eng" type="radio" name="format" value="english" onclick="javascript:imgformat('eng');" checked ><label for="ovw-eng">English</label> <a id="TABday1F" href="/noaa/noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday2F" href="/noaa/noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday3F" href="/noaa/noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <br> <input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformat('esp');"><label for="ovw-esp">Español</label> <a id="TABday1EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday2EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday3EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <br> </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div>   <div> <div id="TABday1G-ovw" style="display:block;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad1.png' id='ovwimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday2G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad2.png' id='ovwimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday3G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad3.png' id='ovwimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'> </a> </div> </div>  <div id='links-ovw' class='links-ove'>  <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Interactive National Forecast Chart</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ovw')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-ovw" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/html/about_Gudes.shtml" alt="Product Description">Description of the National Forecast Chart</a></li> <li>» <a href="/noaa/noaa_archive.php?reset=yes" alt="Product Archives">Product Archives</a></li> <li>» Download hazards in <a href="/kml/kmlproducts.php#sigwx" alt="KML">KML</a> or <a href="https://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shapefiles/noaa_chart/" alt="shapefile">shapefile format</a> or <a href="/NationalForecastChart/mapdata/" alt="GeoJSON">GeoJSON format</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class='display-headlines'>  <div class='display-title-headline'> WPC Top Stories: </div>  <div class='news-list'> <a href='/discussions/nfdscc3.html' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='../para/css/images/stormsummary_snow.gif' alt='headline0' /><br>Latest Summary for Mid-March Winter Storm.</div></a><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='../qpf/98ewbg.gif' alt='headline1' /><br>Day 2 Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect</div></a><a href='./key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='./key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png' alt='headline2' /><br>Latest Key Messages for Mid-March Winter Storm </div></a><a href='https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='/para/images/ppp.png' alt='headline3' /><br>Explore WPC's experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal</div></a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="sfc">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviews:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviews').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviews:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviews').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firsts').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-sfc' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">North American Surface Analysis <a href="html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 21Z Thu Mar 13, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 00Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 03Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 06Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 09Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday6S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 12Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday7S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 15Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday8S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 18Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday9S-sfc' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 21Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div>    <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday1','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday1','9')" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-sfc" class="blank">-24 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday2','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday2','9')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-sfc" class="blank">-21 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday3','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday3','9')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-sfc" class="blank">-18 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday4','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday4','9')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-sfc" class="blank">-15 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday5','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday5','9')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-sfc" class="blank">-12 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday6','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday6','9')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-sfc" class="blank">-9 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday7','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday7','9')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-sfc" class="blank">-6 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday8','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday8','9')" alt="Day8"><span id="TABday8T-sfc" class="blank">-3 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday9','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday9','9')" id="firsts" alt="Day9"><span id="TABday9T-sfc" class="active-forecast">latest</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div>  <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-sfc" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('sfc');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" alt="options"/></a> </div> <div id="opts-sfc" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Image Format: <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="sfc-std" type="radio" name="format" value="standard" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('namussfc');" checked ><label for="sfc-std">Standard</label> <br> <input id="sfc-sat" type="radio" name="format" value="satellite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('ussatsfc');"><label for="sfc-sat">Satellite Composite</label> <br> <input id="sfc-rad" type="radio" name="format" value="radar" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('radsfcus_exp_new');"><label for="sfc-rad">Radar Composite</label> <br> <input id="sfc-baw" type="radio" name="format" value="blckwhite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('bw');"><label for="sfc-baw">Black and White</label> <br> <input id="sfc-frt" type="radio" name="format" value="fronts" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('usfntsfc');"><label for="sfc-frt">Fronts Only</label> <br>  </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/html/sfc-zoom.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <script> function imgformatsfc(nam) { //get info from php variables var numprod = 9; var maphours = ["21","00","03","06","09","12","15","18","21"]; var oldimgsrc = ["\/archives\/sfc\/2025\/namussfc2025031321.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc00wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc03wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc06wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc09wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc12wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc15wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc18wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc21wbg.gif"]; //info to grab from archives var ayear = "2025"; var afilename = "2025031321"; //get new sources for selected sfc image var ndirectory = 'https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc'; var narcdirectory = 'https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/sfc'; var newimgsrc = new Array(); for (i = 0; i < numprod; i++) { if (nam == 'namussfc') { // user selects 'standard' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + 'wbg.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } else if (nam == 'bw') { //user selects 'black and white' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + 'print_us' + maphours[i] + nam + '.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + 'print_us' + afilename + '.gif'; } } else if (nam == 'usfntsfc') { //user selects 'fronts only' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + 'wbg.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } else { newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + '.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } //change image source var idnum = i + 1; var sfcid = 'sfcimg' + idnum ; document.getElementById(sfcid).src = newimgsrc[i]; } // alert(newimgsrc[3]); } </script>  <div> <div id='TABday1G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/archives/sfc/2025/namussfc2025031321.gif' id='sfcimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc00wbg.gif' id='sfcimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc03wbg.gif' id='sfcimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc06wbg.gif' id='sfcimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc09wbg.gif' id='sfcimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc12wbg.gif' id='sfcimg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc15wbg.gif' id='sfcimg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div><div id='TABday8G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc18wbg.gif' id='sfcimg8' alt='Day 8 image not available'></div><div id='TABday9G-sfc' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc21wbg.gif' id='sfcimg9' alt='Day 9 image not available'></div> </div>  <div id='links-sfc' class='links-max'> <a href="/html/sfc-zoom.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Interactive Surface Map</a><br> <a href="https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php" target="_blank"> » NWS Unified Surface Analysis</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-sfc')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-sfc" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive.php" alt="Product Archives">Product Archives</a></li> <li>» <a href="/sfc/UASfcManualVersion1.pdf" alt="Product Info">NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual</a></li> <li>» <a href="/html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Surface Analysis Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="frt">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewf').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewf:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewf').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstf').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-frt' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures <a href="basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-frt' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed 21Z Fri Mar 14, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z Sat Mar 15, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 06Z Sat Mar 15, 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sat Mar 15, 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 18Z Sat Mar 15, 2025</div><div id='TABday6S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z Sun Mar 16, 2025</div><div id='TABday7S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sun Mar 16, 2025</div><div id='TABday8S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z Mon Mar 17, 2025</div><div id='TABday9S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Mon Mar 17, 2025</div><div id='TABday10S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Tue Mar 18, 2025</div><div id='TABday11S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Wed Mar 19, 2025</div><div id='TABday12S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Thu Mar 20, 2025</div><div id='TABday13S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Fri Mar 21, 2025</div>    <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday1','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday1','13')" id="firstf" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-frt" class="active-forecast">21ZFri</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'> </span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday2','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday2','13')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-frt" class="blank">00ZSat</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday3','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday3','13')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-frt" class="blank">06ZSat</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday4','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday4','13')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-frt" class="blank">12ZSat</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday5','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday5','13')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-frt" class="blank">18ZSat</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday6','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday6','13')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-frt" class="blank">00ZSun</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday7','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday7','13')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-frt" class="blank">12ZSun</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday8','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday8','13')" alt="Day8"><span id="TABday8T-frt" class="blank">00ZMon</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'> </span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday9','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday9','13')" alt="Day9"><span id="TABday9T-frt" class="blank">12ZMon</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday10','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday10','13')" alt="Day10"><span id="TABday10T-frt" class="blank">12ZTue</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday11','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday11','13')" alt="Day11"><span id="TABday11T-frt" class="blank">12ZWed</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday12','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday12','13')" alt="Day12"><span id="TABday12T-frt" class="blank">12ZThu</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday13','13')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday13','13')" alt="Day13"><span id="TABday13T-frt" class="blank">12ZFri</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div>    <div> <div id='TABday1G-frt' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../sfc/usfntsfc21wbg.gif' id='frtimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/92fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/93fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/94fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/95fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/96fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/98fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div><div id='TABday8G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/99fndfd_init_2025031412.gif ' id='frtimg8' alt='Day 8 image not available'></div><div id='TABday9G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf072.gif' id='frtimg9' alt='Day 9 image not available'></div><div id='TABday10G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf096.gif' id='frtimg10' alt='Day 10 image not available'></div><div id='TABday11G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf120.gif' id='frtimg11' alt='Day 11 image not available'></div><div id='TABday12G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf144.gif' id='frtimg12' alt='Day 12 image not available'></div><div id='TABday13G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf168.gif' id='frtimg13' alt='Day 13 image not available'></div> </div>  <div id='links-frt' class='links-max'> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frtsr-disco')" href="javascript:;"> + Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frtsr-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Short Range Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>400 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br>Valid 00Z Sat Mar 15 2025 - 00Z Mon Mar 17 2025 <br> <br>...Deep cyclone will bring widespread high winds across the Plains, <br>critical to extreme fire danger across central/southern Plains, and <br>possibly blizzard conditions across eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on <br>Saturday... <br> <br>...Heavy rain and flash flooding later on Saturday across the <br>Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Deep South... <br> <br>...Unsettled weather across the Pacific Northwest will culminate with an <br>atmospheric river event reaching southwestern Oregon/far northern <br>California Saturday night into Sunday... <br> <br>...Severe thunderstorms expected to impact the Midwest to the much of the <br>Mississippi Valley tonight, across the Deep South later on Saturday, and <br>possibly the East Coast by Sunday... <br> <br> <br>A rapidly intensifying cyclone that has already brought record high wind <br>gusts exceeding 80 mph across the south-central Plains will continue to <br>track northeastward, reaching the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. This <br>deep storm will continue to herald a wide variety of hazardous weather <br>across the eastern half of the country through the weekend. The immediate <br>concerns will be critical to extreme fire danger across central to <br>southern Plains due to the high winds through tonight behind the cyclone. <br>Meanwhile, an outbreak of thunderstorms reaching severe levels is expected <br>across the Midwest tonight with the passage of an occluded front. By <br>Saturday, a vigorous wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the <br>trailing front over Arkansas. The influx of moisture and instability to <br>be lifted by an energetic jet stream will result in a heavy rain event on <br>Saturday across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Deep South where up to <br>a moderate risk of flash flooding can be expected especially by the <br>evening hours. Also on Saturday, cold air wrapping around the deep <br>cyclone will likely bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow across <br>eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Blustery northwesterly winds could lead <br>to blizzard conditions in portions of these areas at the height of the <br>storm on Saturday before the cyclone starting to move into Canada Saturday <br>night. <br> <br>By Saturday night into Sunday, the wave of low pressure is forecast to <br>continue its rapidly-deepening trend as it tracks toward the East Coast. <br>A potent cold front trailing south of the low center will sweep across the <br>entire eastern U.S. Warm and moist air ahead of the front will surge up <br>the East Coast on Saturday, which will be followed by the arrival of <br>moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms that could reach severe <br>levels along with increasingly gusty winds for much of the East Coast, <br>especially from the Mid-Atlantic southward. <br> <br>The western U.S. will have no lack of active weather through this weekend <br>as a parade of fronts and cyclones targets the Pacific Northwest. While <br>heavy snow associated with the first system is expected to taper off <br>tonight across the Sierra Nevada, active and unsettled weather across the <br>Pacific Northwest through tonight into Saturday will culminate with an <br>atmospheric river event reaching southwestern Oregon and far northern <br>California Saturday night into Sunday. An additional foot of snow can be <br>expected for the Sierra Nevada while a few feet of new snow is forecast <br>for the Cascasde through the weekend. For the lower elevation of <br>southwestern Oregon into northwestern California, locally heavy rain <br>pushing onshore by the atmospheric river could exceed 5 inches at some <br>locations, which would lead to concerns of flash flooding, mudslides and <br>river runoffs. The lower elevation of the Desert Southwest is perhaps the <br>only dry locations this weekend but the first Pacific system is forecast <br>to bring up to a foot of new snow for the higher elevation of Arizona <br>tonight into Saturday. Light to moderate snowfall is also forecast for <br>the mountains across the Great Basin. <br> <br> <br>Kong <br> <br> <br>Graphics available at <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frtmr-disco')" href="javascript:;"> + Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frtmr-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>227 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br>Valid 12Z Mon Mar 17 2025 - 12Z Fri Mar 21 2025 <br> <br> <br>...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... <br> <br>Models and ensembles overall continue to offer reasonable <br>agreement, at least on the large scale, through the medium range <br>period, but some notable differences in the details which would <br>have impacts on sensible weather threats. A trough exiting the East <br>Coast early next week has trended better in terms of timing. The <br>next trough into the Central U.S. looks to spin up a modestly <br>strong surface low next Tuesday-Wednesday, but the models continue <br>to indicate some timing questions on both the shortwave and surface <br>low. The GFS remains on the fast side, with the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET <br>runs today clustered close and slower. WPC favored the slightly <br>slower EC/CMC/UKMET (with the EC Mean) for this, which was also <br>close to WPC continuity. Worth a note that the new 12z CMC today <br>(available after forecast generation time) did trend even slower <br>while the 12z ECMWF trended slightly faster. The next two systems <br>mid to late next week show some timing variability as well, but <br>this was covered well with incorporation of the ensemble means into <br>the blend for the late period. <br> <br> <br>...Weather/Hazards Highlights... <br> <br>An amplified upper trough and lead/wavy cold front will exit the <br>East Coast by Monday to moderate temperatures briefly and sweep <br>widespread thunderstorms out to sea; with possible low deepening <br>out over the Western Atlantic a possible maritime hazard. <br>Temperatures are forecast to warm back up in the central and then <br>eastern U.S. as the week progresses. This occurs with advent of <br>upper ridging as a next main upper trough moves across the western <br>and central U.S. early-mid next week and onward to the East later <br>next week. Dynamically and terrain enhanced rain and elevation <br>focusing snow is forecast to spread out from the West Coast to <br>through the Interior West Monday- Tuesday. Cyclogenesis over the <br>Plains on Tuesday and subsequent main/windy low track through the <br>Midwest/Great Lakes into Thursday will combine with secondary cold <br>frontal cooling to enhance upslope and wrapback heavy snow <br>potential from the north-central Rockies/Plains through the Upper <br>Midwest Tuesday- Thursday. A wavy trailing cold front will have <br>less moisture than the early week system, but will align showers <br>and thunderstorms across the central U.S. then the East, exiting <br>next Thursday/Friday as new Pacific system energies and late winter <br>precipitation work back into the West/Northwest. <br> <br>Santorelli/Schichtel <br> <br> <br>Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC <br>medium range hazards outlook chart at: <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</a></u></a> <br> <br>WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, <br>quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall <br>outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat <br>indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: <br> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frthi-disco')" href="javascript:;"> + Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frthi-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> <br>Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>320 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br>Valid 00Z Sat 15 Mar 2025 - 00Z Sat 22 Mar 2025 <br> <br> <br>Guidance seems reasonable clustered and indicated that surface <br>high now centered to the norteast of the state should weaken and <br>drift southeastward, allowing for island winds to gradually lessen <br>to more moderate levels by Saturday. It also seems evident that winds <br>may raise to more breezy levels into next week as a series of <br>high pressure cells bridge to the north of the state. Meanwhile, <br>an upper trough is forecast to gradually approach from the west <br>with some lowering heights over Hawaii. This plus a front stalling <br>to the north and west will draw higher moisture northward across <br>the state as mean flow turns more southeasterly. Thus, shower <br>coverage and higher rain totals are more likely over the weekend <br>into early next week over the islands, but there could be a <br>particular focus over the western islands closer to the <br>front and deeper moisture. More typical trade winds may return <br>around midweek while moisture levels gradually fall as the trough <br>loses influence. <br> <br>Schichtel <br> <br> <br> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frt')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-frt" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Surface Products">More Surface Analysis Products</a></li> <li>» <a href="/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" alt="Short Range Products">More Short Range Products</a></li> <li>» <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" alt="Medium Range Products">More Medium Range Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="qpf">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { //$(".overviewqpf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewqpf').focus(); 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available'></div><div id='TABday3G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9eewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9fewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9gewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9hewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9iewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div><div id='TABday8G-qpfsix' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/fill_9jewbg.gif' id='qpfimgsix8' alt='Day 8 image not available'></div><div 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image not available'></div> </div>  <div id='links-qpf' class='links-max'> <a href="/pqpf/conus_hpc_pqpf.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)</a><br> <a href="/qpf/epm/extreme_precip_monitor.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Extreme Precipitation Monitor</a><br>  <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-qpf')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-qpf" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/html/hpcverif.shtml#qpf" alt="Product Verification">Product Verification</a></li> <li>» <a href="/archives/qpf/get_qpf_images.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>» <a href="/html/fam2.shtml#qpf" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>» Additional formats of QPF: <a href="https://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/2p5km_qpf/" alt="GRIB2">GRIB 2</a> | <a href="../html/about_gis.shtml" alt="Shapefiles">Shapefiles</a> | <a href="../kml/kmlproducts.php" alt="KML">KML</a> </li> <li>» <a href="/qpf/qpf2.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other QPF Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="ero">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewe:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewe').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewe:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewe').focus(); } } ); $(function() { //$('#firste').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-ero' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Excessive Rainfall Forecasts <a href="qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php" alt="Interactive Page" class="legacy-link">Interactive Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-ero' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Valid 16Z Fri Mar 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Mar 15 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-ero' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sat Mar 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-ero' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 17 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-ero' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Mon Mar 17 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-ero' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025</div>    <div class="navbar"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday1','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday1','5')" id="firste" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-ero" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday2','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday2','5')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-ero" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday3','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday3','5')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-ero" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li><li class=testtab><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday4','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday4','5')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-ero" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li class=testtab><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday5','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday5','5')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-ero" class="blank">Day 5</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div>    <div> <div id='TABday1G-ero' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/94ewbg.gif' id='eroimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/98ewbg.gif' id='eroimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/99ewbg.gif' id='eroimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/ero_d45/images/d4wbg.gif' id='eroimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/ero_d45/images/d5wbg.gif' id='eroimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div> </div>  <div id='links-ero' class='links-max'> <a href="/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php">Interactive Page</> <br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ero-disco')" href="javascript:;"> + Forecast Discussion</a><br> <div id="dlinks-ero-disco" style="display: none"> <div id='TABday1D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: block'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>426 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br>Day 1 <br>Valid 16Z Fri Mar 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Mar 15 2025 <br> <br>...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF <br>THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND <br>TENNESSEE VALLEYS... <br> <br>A deepening mid-level upper low will move northeastward today from <br>the southern Plains and over the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the <br>same time, strengthening southerly flow will help to advect a <br>moist, unstable airmass increasingly northward and ahead of an <br>eastward moving cold front. Storms are expected to rapidly develop <br>along the cold front by late afternoon possibly as far west as the <br>Middle/Lower Missouri Valley before increasing in coverage as the <br>front reaches the Middle Mississippi Valley this evening, with <br>eventual development also extending southward into the Tennessee <br>Valley. Both the front and accompanying storm motions are expected <br>to remain rather quick moving given the strong dynamics in place. <br>Therefore, this convection will almost certainly pose more of a <br>severe risk than a flash flood threat. However, given the strong <br>dynamics, along with sufficient instability for deep convection, <br>expect peak rainfall rates will be briefly intense enough <br>(~1-2"/hr) to produce localized amounts that exceed current model <br>forecasts (2-3 inches over relatively short period) which could <br>lead to some isolated flash flooding particularly in urban areas. <br>There is also an increasing signal in the guidance that some <br>additional storms may develop ahead of the front as an 850 mb jet <br>ramps up from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee <br>Valley in the evening/overnight hours. These storms would also pose <br>a threat for some locally heavy rain rates and the potential for a <br>quick 2-3 inches of rainfall. <br> <br>Putnam <br> <br> <br>Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday2D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>426 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br>Day 2 <br>Valid 12Z Sat Mar 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025 <br> <br>...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF <br>THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... <br> <br>...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... <br> <br>The upper-level pattern will remain amplified Saturday across the <br>central U.S. as one upper-low lifts northward into Canada while a <br>second upstream shortwave/upper jet dives southeast into the <br>southern Plains on Saturday morning and spreads eastward over the <br>Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into Saturday afternoon/evening. <br>A surface wave developing along the leading system's trailing cold <br>front will help focus deep Gulf moisture tapped by a very strong <br>850 mb jet while supported aloft by increasing upper-level <br>divergence ahead of the approach of the upper jet. This will help <br>lead to the continued development and maintenance of both open warm <br>sector convective development along the leading edge of the moist <br>warm air advection/850mb jet as well as along the slowing eastward <br>moving cold front. The updated 12Z CAM guidance supports the most <br>likely corridor of overlap between the warm sector development as <br>well as potential repeated/training rounds of storms along and just <br>ahead of the cold front across portions of the Tennessee Valley <br>from northeastern Mississippi east-northeastward into northern <br>Alabama, south-central/southeastern Tennessee, and northwestern <br>Georgia. This region also coincides with areal average QPF amongst <br>the CAM guidance of 3-6", with locally higher totals of 8"+, and <br>HREF probabilities of greater than 5" of rainfall over 50%. These <br>very heavy rainfall totals, supported by downpours of 2"+/hour, <br>will have the potential to lead to widespread, significant <br>instances of flash flooding, with an upgrade to a Moderate Risk now <br>included for the region. While there is greater uncertainty, the <br>latest 12Z guidance also shows support for similar totals further <br>northeastward into portions of south- central/southeastern Kentucky <br>as well as further eastward into western North Carolina, which may <br>require an expansion of the Moderate Risk if confidence increases. <br>Areas of south-central/southeastern Kentucky as well as western <br>North Carolina also remain more sensitive to additional rainfall. <br>Regardless, a broader area of average rainfall totals of 2-3", <br>locally higher, will contribute to additional scattered to <br>potentially numerous instances of flash flooding across the <br>Tennessee and Ohio Valleys within the Slight Risk. <br> <br>...Pacific Northwest... <br> <br>A Marginal Risk remains in place for portions of the Pacific <br>Northwest (mostly coastal/western Oregon and a bit of far <br>northwestern CA) where guidance continues to indicate the potential <br>for 2-5" localized rainfall totals along the coast (with the <br>highest amounts indicated in the OR/CA coastal border area). This <br>is due to a faster/stronger AR reaching into the Day 2 period from <br>Saturday evening into early Sunday morning (as an inherited <br>Marginal risk has been maintained for this update for Day 3) with <br>IVT of 400-600 kg/ms indicated perpendicular or nearly <br>perpendicular to the coast that will continue into Day 3. A <br>targeted upgrade to a Slight Risk may be necessary on Day 2 and/or <br>Day 3 as confidence increases in the timing of the heaviest <br>rainfall given it may very well split different portions of both <br>periods. <br> <br>Putnam/Churchill <br> <br> <br>Day 2 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday3D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>426 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br>Day 3 <br>Valid 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 17 2025 <br> <br>...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF <br>THE EAST COAST, FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND, AND FOR PORTIONS <br>OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... <br> <br>...East Coast... <br> <br>As the aforementioned low lifts northward into Canada, what's left <br>is a weakening cold front as the upper-level pattern becomes a bit <br>less amplified (shortwave over the Southeast lifting a bit and <br>cutting off from northern/polar stream). The result looks to be <br>scattered localized totals of 1-2" over a large region from the <br>Southeast (central FL, southeast GA, and Carolinas) into the Mid- <br>Atlantic and portions of the Northeast/New England. The 12z <br>GFS/ECMWF as well as GEFS and ECENS both show the potential for <br>locally higher totals of 2-3", with more confidence in these totals <br>being realized over portions of the eastern Carolinas, and then <br>less likely further north into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/New <br>England as well as further south into northern Florida. Regardless, <br>these totals look to remain somewhat limited as the front begins a <br>faster progression towards the Atlantic Coast. <br> <br>...Pacific Northwest... <br> <br>The aforementioned AR looks to bring in stronger moisture <br>transport into Day 3 with the potential for IVT in the 600-800 <br>kg/ms range near the OR/CA border region, peaking for a period <br>early in the day on Sunday. Model consensus suggests an additional <br>2-4" of QPF through Day 3, and a targeted upgrade to Slight risk <br>remains possible in the day 3 period (as well as day 2) in future <br>updates depending on forecast consistency and greater confidence on <br>the exact timing of the window of heaviest rainfall, which may not <br>evenly split the day 2/3 period. <br> <br>Putnam/Churchill <br> <br>Day 3 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday4D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'>Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>227 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br> <br>An amplified upper trough and lead/wavy cold front will exit the <br>East Coast by Monday to moderate temperatures briefly and sweep <br>widespread thunderstorms out to sea; with possible low deepening <br>out over the Western Atlantic a possible maritime hazard. <br>Temperatures are forecast to warm back up in the central and then <br>eastern U.S. as the week progresses. This occurs with advent of <br>upper ridging as a next main upper trough moves across the western <br>and central U.S. early-mid next week and onward to the East later <br>next week. Dynamically and terrain enhanced rain and elevation <br>focusing snow is forecast to spread out from the West Coast to <br>through the Interior West Monday- Tuesday. Cyclogenesis over the <br>Plains on Tuesday and subsequent main/windy low track through the <br>Midwest/Great Lakes into Thursday will combine with secondary cold <br>frontal cooling to enhance upslope and wrapback heavy snow <br>potential from the north-central Rockies/Plains through the Upper <br>Midwest Tuesday- Thursday. A wavy trailing cold front will have <br>less moisture than the early week system, but will align showers <br>and thunderstorms across the central U.S. then the East, exiting <br>next Thursday/Friday as new Pacific system energies and late winter <br>precipitation work back into the West/Northwest. <br> <br>Santorelli/Schichtel <br> <br> <br></div><div id='TABday5D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'>Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>227 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br> <br>An amplified upper trough and lead/wavy cold front will exit the <br>East Coast by Monday to moderate temperatures briefly and sweep <br>widespread thunderstorms out to sea; with possible low deepening <br>out over the Western Atlantic a possible maritime hazard. <br>Temperatures are forecast to warm back up in the central and then <br>eastern U.S. as the week progresses. This occurs with advent of <br>upper ridging as a next main upper trough moves across the western <br>and central U.S. early-mid next week and onward to the East later <br>next week. Dynamically and terrain enhanced rain and elevation <br>focusing snow is forecast to spread out from the West Coast to <br>through the Interior West Monday- Tuesday. Cyclogenesis over the <br>Plains on Tuesday and subsequent main/windy low track through the <br>Midwest/Great Lakes into Thursday will combine with secondary cold <br>frontal cooling to enhance upslope and wrapback heavy snow <br>potential from the north-central Rockies/Plains through the Upper <br>Midwest Tuesday- Thursday. A wavy trailing cold front will have <br>less moisture than the early week system, but will align showers <br>and thunderstorms across the central U.S. then the East, exiting <br>next Thursday/Friday as new Pacific system energies and late winter <br>precipitation work back into the West/Northwest. <br> <br>Santorelli/Schichtel <br> <br> <br></div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ero')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-ero" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/html/fam2.shtml#excessrain" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>» <a href="/para/para_images/ERO_Categories.png" alt="Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories">Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories</a></li> <li>» <a href="/qpf/eroclimo/" alt="ERO Climatology">Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="wwx">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewwin:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewwin').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewwin:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewwin').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstwin').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-wwx' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Winter Weather Forecasts <a href="/wwd/winter_wx.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-wwx' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 03/15/2025 - 00Z 03/16/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday2S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 03/16/2025 - 00Z 03/17/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday3S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 03/17/2025 - 00Z 03/18/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday4S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/17/2025 - 12Z 03/18/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday5S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/18/2025 - 12Z 03/19/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday6S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/19/2025 - 12Z 03/20/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday7S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/20/2025 - 12Z 03/21/2025</snippet> </div>    <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday1','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday1','7')" id="firstwin" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-wwx" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday2','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday2','7')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-wwx" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday3','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday3','7')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-wwx" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'> </span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday4','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday4','7')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-wwx" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday5','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday5','7')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-wwx" class="blank">Day 5</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday6','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday6','7')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-wwx" class="blank">Day 6</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday7','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday7','7')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-wwx" class="blank">Day 7</span></a></li> <li class="cforday"><a title="more about WPC's Winter Weather Forecasts" href="#" onclick="window.open('../../wwd/wwd_info.html','newwindow', 'width=900, height=500'); return false;"><img class="winwx-question" src="../para/para_css/images/question.png" height="14"></img></a></li>  </ul> </div> </div>  <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-wwx" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('wwx');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-wwx" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Day 1-3 Image Options: <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="wwx-for" type="radio" name="format" value="four" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('for');" checked ><label for="wwx-for">Snowfall (≥ 4”)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-egt" type="radio" name="format" value="eight" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('egt');"><label for="wwx-egt">Snowfall (≥ 8”)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-twl" type="radio" name="format" value="twelve" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('twl');"><label for="wwx-twl">Snowfall (≥ 12”)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-ice" type="radio" name="format" value="ice" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('ice');"><label for="wwx-ice">Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-com" type="radio" name="format" value="composite" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('com');"><label for="wwx-com">Composite Charts</label> <br>  </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map (Day 1-3)</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map (Day 4-7)</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" target="_blank">Winter Storm Severity Index</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php" target="_blank">Probabilistic Winter Storm<br>Severity Index</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wso" target="_blank">Experimental Winter<br>Storm Outlook</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <script> function imgformatwwx(nam) { //get new valid times and sources for images var newimgsrc = new Array(); 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} else if (nam =='com') { //display 4-panel composite charts newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/15\/2025 - 00Z 03\/16\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/16\/2025 - 00Z 03\/17\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/17\/2025 - 00Z 03\/18\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/17\/2025 - 12Z 03\/18\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/18\/2025 - 12Z 03\/19\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/19\/2025 - 12Z 03\/20\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/20\/2025 - 12Z 03\/21\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='lcl') { //display low track w/ clusters newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; 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} else { //display default >4" snowfall newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/15\/2025 - 00Z 03\/16\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/16\/2025 - 00Z 03\/17\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 00Z 03\/17\/2025 - 00Z 03\/18\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/17\/2025 - 12Z 03\/18\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/18\/2025 - 12Z 03\/19\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/19\/2025 - 12Z 03\/20\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/20\/2025 - 12Z 03\/21\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } //change sources in html var numprod = 7; for (i = 0; i < numprod; i++) { var idnum = i + 1; var imgid = 'wwximg' + idnum ; var valtimeid = 'TABday' + idnum + 'S-wwx'; document.getElementById(imgid).src = newimgsrc[i]; document.getElementById(valtimeid).innerHTML = newvaltime[i]; } } </script>  <div> <div id='TABday1G-wwx' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif' id='wwximg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif' id='wwximg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif' id='wwximg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif' id='wwximg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div> </div>  <div id='links-wwx' class='links-max'> <a href="/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)</a><br> <a href="/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)</a><br> <a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Winter Storm Severity Index</a><br> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> » Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-wwx-disco')" href="javascript:;"> + Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-wwx-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>251 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 <br> <br>Valid 00Z Sat Mar 15 2025 - 00Z Tue Mar 18 2025 <br> <br> <br>...Northern Plains... <br>Day 1... <br> <br>Rapidly strengthening low pressure analyzed over the central Plains <br>this afternoon will approach or exceed March sea-level pressure <br>records across the Northern Plains as it tracks northeast through <br>Saturday aftn. Not only will SLP records be approached, but <br>850-500mb height anomalies are progged to fall below the all-time <br>minimums within the CFSR climatology according to NAEFS, further <br>indicative of the intensity of this system. The result of this <br>evolution will be a major winter storm impacting the Northern <br>Plains late Friday through Saturday with a combination of heavy <br>snow and gusty winds. <br> <br>As the surface low tracks northeast from the Central High Plains, <br>it will be driven by an overlap of impressive height falls <br>downstream of the primary closed low and at least modest upper <br>diffluence in the LFQ of a poleward arcing jet streak east of the <br>mid-level center. Together, these will drive intense deep layer <br>ascent aiding in the storm strengthening. At the same time, <br>confluent low-level flow east of the low will draw impressive <br>moisture northward on 300-305K isentropic ascent. This moisture <br>will surge am impressive theta-e ridge northward, which will then <br>rotate cyclonically and lift into a robust TROWAL, pivoting over <br>eastern NE, SD, ND, and western/central MN Saturday. At the same <br>time, an impressive deformation axis will overlap with this TROWAL, <br>supporting an intense axis of maximized ascent to drive heavy <br>precipitation rates. <br> <br>Initially, the theta-e advection will surge warm air into the <br>region such that the column will support primarily rain. However, <br>as the low continues to deepen and move northeast, and mesoscale <br>ascent intensifies, the combination of dynamic cooling and <br>ageostrophic flow on NW winds into the low center will rapidly cool <br>the column. The guidance continues to suggest a period of mixed <br>precip, including sleet and freezing rain, will occur, but this <br>again appears to be a conceptual setup where the transition period <br>is quite rapid. This indicates that while some light icing is <br>possible, the predominant wintry p-type will be snow, which will <br>almost certainly become heavy at times (70% probabilities for 1"/hr <br>according to the HREF). This is supported as well by NAM cross- <br>sections indicating a region of theta-es lapse rates <0C/km in the <br>presence of symmetric instability, suggesting the potential for <br>CSI or even CI (thundersnow). Although antecedent conditions are <br>quite warm and some rain will begin this event, these rates should <br>quickly overwhelm this hostility leading to rapid snow <br>accumulation. <br> <br>Finally, impacts during the period of heavy snow are likely to be <br>impressive due to strong winds that may gust above 50 mph during <br>the period of heavy snow. While the period of heavy snow rates is <br>likely to be somewhat temporally modest except beneath the pivot <br>point of the deformation axis, the overlap of extreme rates of <br>1-2"/hr and these strong winds will create near blizzard conditions <br>and extremely dangerous travel. The changeover to snow will <br>commence across eastern SD after 06Z Saturday before expanding <br>north-northeast across western and north-central Minnesota between <br>12Z-18Z. Recent trends have shifted this band of heavy snowfall <br>amounts (>4") eastward by about 75 miles or so as guidance is <br>consolidating on a more compact area of low pressure across the <br>Upper Midwest. WPC probabilities for at least 4" are high (>70%) <br>across southwest to north-central Minnesota, with 40-70% chances <br>extending into far eastern South Dakota and far southeast North <br>Dakota. Locally, a narrow swath of at least 8" of snow is possible <br>(20-40%) beneath the pivoting deformation, especially should any <br>thundersnow occur. Additionally, some light icing across north- <br>central MN has a 10-30% chance of reaching 0.1+" of ice accretion. <br> <br> <br>...The West... <br>Days 1-3... <br> <br>The active pattern continues across the West with two separate <br>systems producing widespread wintry precipitation across much of <br>the area through early next week. <br> <br>After the significant winter storm departs into the central U.S., <br>any break in precipitation across the West will be short lived as <br>the active pattern sheds another amplifying shortwave across CA/OR <br>tonight. This next impulse will be accompanied by an impressive <br>lobe of vorticity, with the resultant trough development driving <br>height falls once again from CA through the Four Corners on D1. <br>Available moisture with this next impulse is progged to be much <br>less than with the first shortwave, reflected by NAEFS PW anomalies <br>that are near normal east of AZ as the maximum IVT downstream of <br>this trough axis is modest (GEFS and ECENS probabilities for 500 <br>kg/m/s less than 10%) and focused generally south into Mexico. Of <br>course, this is pretty typical with ARs that are oriented more W/NW <br>than W/SW, but enough moisture and continued lowered snow levels <br>of generally 3000-5000 ft will allow for at least modest snowfall <br>accumulations. <br> <br>Interestingly, as this shortwave digs across the Four Corners, the <br>upstream flow becomes more favorable for a surge of moisture and <br>heavy precipitation farther north into the Pacific and Interior <br>Northwest. A trough over British Columbia/Alberta interacts with <br>the trough moving across the Four Corners to squeeze the flow over <br>the Pacific, resulting in fast and zonal flow surging into WA/OR. <br>Impulses within this flow will help push two distinct surface lows <br>onshore, the first Saturday morning and the second early Sunday <br>morning, helping to enhance ascent. Regardless of those surface <br>lows, deep layer lift becomes impressive and moisture increases as <br>a strengthening Pacific jet streak pivots onshore and begins to <br>buckle, lifting meridionally on Sunday downstream of an even more <br>potent trough approaching the coast. <br> <br>Both 12Z ECMWF and GFS depict 500-700 kg/m/s IVT reaching the <br>coast D2, funneling moisture along a cold front which will <br>elongate into the region. Although the accompanying WAA with this <br>atmospheric river (AR) will drive snow levels to as high as 6000 <br>ft south <br>of the cold front, considerable moisture and a sharp gradient in <br>snow levels will likely result in impactful pass- level snow from <br>the Cascades through the Northern Rockies and eventually Sierra <br>Nevada once again on D3, with still impressive snow but generally <br>above pass- levels farther south from the Great Basin into the <br>Central Rockies, as much of the West is again covered in elevation- <br>based snowfall. For the entire forecast period, high WPC <br>probabilities (>70%) for 8+ inches exist from the Sierra Nevada <br>and OR <br>Cascades northward into the Olympics and WA Cascades, and as far <br>east as the Salmon River/Sawtooth area, north into the Northern <br>Rockies, and even as far as the Tetons. Event total snowfall is <br>likely to be extreme in the higher terrain of the OR Cascades where <br>4-6 feet of snow is possible, with widespread 1-3 feet in the <br>other higher elevations regions of the Northwest and Sierra Nevada. <br> <br> <br>Snell/Weiss <br> <br> <br> <br> <br>...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current <br> Key Messages below... <br> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-wwx')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-wwx" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/wwd/wso" target="_blank">Experimental Winter Storm Outlook</a></li> <li>» <a href="/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php" target="_blank">Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index</a></li> <li>» <a href="../verification/winwx/winwx.php" alt="Product Verification">Product Verification</a></li> <li>» <a href="../archives/web_pages/winwx/get_winwx_images.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>» <a href="../wwd/about.shtml" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>» <a href="../wwd/winter_wx.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Winter Weather Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="med">   <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewm:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewm').focus(); 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A trough exiting the East <br>Coast early next week has trended better in terms of timing. The <br>next trough into the Central U.S. looks to spin up a modestly <br>strong surface low next Tuesday-Wednesday, but the models continue <br>to indicate some timing questions on both the shortwave and surface <br>low. The GFS remains on the fast side, with the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET <br>runs today clustered close and slower. WPC favored the slightly <br>slower EC/CMC/UKMET (with the EC Mean) for this, which was also <br>close to WPC continuity. Worth a note that the new 12z CMC today <br>(available after forecast generation time) did trend even slower <br>while the 12z ECMWF trended slightly faster. The next two systems <br>mid to late next week show some timing variability as well, but <br>this was covered well with incorporation of the ensemble means into <br>the blend for the late period. <br> <br> <br>...Weather/Hazards Highlights... <br> <br>An amplified upper trough and lead/wavy cold front will exit the <br>East Coast by Monday to moderate temperatures briefly and sweep <br>widespread thunderstorms out to sea; with possible low deepening <br>out over the Western Atlantic a possible maritime hazard. <br>Temperatures are forecast to warm back up in the central and then <br>eastern U.S. as the week progresses. This occurs with advent of <br>upper ridging as a next main upper trough moves across the western <br>and central U.S. early-mid next week and onward to the East later <br>next week. Dynamically and terrain enhanced rain and elevation <br>focusing snow is forecast to spread out from the West Coast to <br>through the Interior West Monday- Tuesday. Cyclogenesis over the <br>Plains on Tuesday and subsequent main/windy low track through the <br>Midwest/Great Lakes into Thursday will combine with secondary cold <br>frontal cooling to enhance upslope and wrapback heavy snow <br>potential from the north-central Rockies/Plains through the Upper <br>Midwest Tuesday- Thursday. A wavy trailing cold front will have <br>less moisture than the early week system, but will align showers <br>and thunderstorms across the central U.S. then the East, exiting <br>next Thursday/Friday as new Pacific system energies and late winter <br>precipitation work back into the West/Northwest. <br> <br>Santorelli/Schichtel <br> <br> <br>Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC <br>medium range hazards outlook chart at: <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</a></u></a> <br> <br>WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, <br>quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall <br>outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat <br>indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: <br> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-med')" href="javascript:;"> + Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-med" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>» <a href="/archives/web_pages/medr/get_medr_products.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>» <a href="/medr/about_medr.shtml" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>» <a href="/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" alt="Product Info">Day 3-7 Surface Composite</a></li> <li>» <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Medium Range Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="tls">  <div id='content-tls' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)</div>   <div class="collab-block2"> <div class="collab-block2-title">Tools Generated at WPC</div> <div class="collab-tools-disclaim"> These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due to workstation failure and/or data unavailability. </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rainfallreports" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/Experimental_intense_rainfall.PNG' alt='Prototype Weather in Context' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format. </div> </div> </a> <a href="./exper/gefs/gefs.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">GEFS Probabilities</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/gefsprobs.png' alt='GEFS Probs' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="./exper/lsr/lsr.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Local Storm Reports</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/lsr.png' alt='Local Storm Reports' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="/qpf/epm/extreme_precip_monitor.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Extreme Precipitation Monitor</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='/para/para_images/epm_exper_staticimage.png' alt='Extreme Precipitation Monitor' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="http://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Ensemble Situational Awareness Table</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/esat.png' alt='ESAT' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data). <p>*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem. </p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">NDFD Forecast Temperature Records</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/ndfdrecords_example.png' alt='NDFD Records' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     </p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="/exper/ndfdmxmn/map.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/ndfd_maxmin_departure.gif' alt='NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology. </div> </div> </a> <a href="/snowbands/view.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/MTD_example.png' alt='Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts. </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="/hmt/weather_in_context/prototype/index.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Weather in Context Prototype</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/wxincontext_staticimage.PNG' alt='Prototype Weather in Context' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska. </div> </div> </a> <a href="/lowclusters/lowclusters.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Automated Forecast Low Clusters</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='/lowclusters/lowclusters_latest.png' alt='Latest Automated Forecast Low Clusters' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays 0-72 hour cyclone forecast positions from global ensemble and deterministic model guidance. </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="./exper/change/change.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">1/3/6/24-hr Changes</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./exper/change/tmpf_latest_24_us.gif' alt='1/3/4/24-hr Changes' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Experimental HeatRisk</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/images/HeatRisk_example.png' alt='HeatRisk Map' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts available out through 7 days. </div> </div> </a> </div>  </div>  <div class="collab-block2"> <div class="collab-block2-title">Other Favorite Forecast Tools</div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">CIPS Guidance</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/cips.png' alt='CIPS Guidance' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that are similar to the upcoming forecast.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">National Blend of Models</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/nblend.png' alt='National Blend' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Atmospheric River Portal</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/cw3e_arportal.png' alt='AR Portal' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">GEFS Plumes</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/gefs.png' alt='GEFS Plumes' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a point.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">SPC Forecast Tools</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/spctools.png' alt='SPC Tools' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">ECMWF Forecast Charts</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/ecmwf.png' alt='ECMWF' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <script 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