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else if (accountSalutation === "[\"male\"]") { salutation_text_TEM = "Sehr geehrter Herr"; } /* Update custom field with new value */ fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.uid, /* replace correct form ID and custom field ID */ form_id: config.salutationForm.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify({ salutation_text_TEM: salutation_text_TEM }) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM updated to ${salutation_text_TEM}`); } if (window.localStorage) { window.localStorage.setItem(`nzz-salutation`, data.uid); } }).catch(e => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM error: ${e}`); } }).finally(() => { if (forceReload) { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## pianoUpdateSalutation forceReload, because of source PIANOID'); } window.location.reload(); } });}; ((bT, clientCountryPreference, config) => { let tags = []; if (bT && bT.standard) { Object.keys(bT.standard).forEach(key => { tags.push([`set${key}`, bT.standard[key]]); }); } if (bT && bT.custom) { Object.keys(bT.custom).forEach(key => { tags.push(['setCustomVariable', key, bT.custom[key]]); }); } return function pianoMain() { if (!window.tp) { window.tp = window.tp || []; window.digitalData = window.digitalData || {}; window.digitalData.user = [{ profile: [{ attributes: { piano: { clientCountryCode: clientCountryPreference || 'CH' } }, profileInfo: { profileID: '', gender: '', userHash: '4defa01e671ab8c019597a9b2cc3d662' } }] }]; /* Set Application ID */ if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c ##piano## :VERSION V43', 'background: yellow;color:black'); } window.tp.push(['setAid', config.aid]); if (config.dmpSiteId) { window.tp.push(['setCxenseSiteId', config.dmpSiteId]); } /* Is application in sandbox */ window.tp.push(['setSandbox', config.isSandbox === 'true']); /* Does application use Piano ID? */ if (config.isSandbox === 'false') { window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://id-eu.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://buy-eu.piano.io/api/v3']); } else { window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://sandbox.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://sandbox.tinypass.com/api/v3']); } window.tp.push(['setUseTinypassAccounts', false]); window.tp.push(['setUsePianoIdUserProvider', true]); /* gift article */ try { const urlParams = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search); if (urlParams.has('gift_created') && new Date(urlParams.get('gift_created') / 1 * 1000) > Date.now() - 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) { window.tp.push(['setCustomVariable', 'shared_article_valid', 'true']); } } catch (e) { console.log(e); } /* Execute when the page is first loaded */ if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c set tags', 'background: yellow;color:black'); } tags.forEach(function (tag) { window.tp.push(tag); }); window.tp.push(['init', function () { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c init piano', 'background: green;color:yellow'); } window.nzzPianoLoaded = true; window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'registrationSuccess', data => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## registrationSuccess:'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.user.sub, form_id: config.RSEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.RSEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': data.token, 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'loginSuccess', callbackData => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## loginSuccess in init', callbackData.source); } window.tp.pianoId.loadExtendedUser({ extendedUserLoaded: function (data) { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## extendedUserLoaded for salutation', data); } let salutationField = null; const customFieldValues = data.custom_field_values; if (customFieldValues && customFieldValues.length > 0) { for (const field of customFieldValues) { if (field.field_name === "account_salutation") { salutationField = field; } } } let forceReload = false; if (callbackData.source == "PIANOID") { forceReload = true; } pianoUpdateSalutation(config, data, salutationField, forceReload); }, formName: 'salutation_form' }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'checkoutCustomEvent', event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent'); } const params = JSON.parse(event.params.params); if (event.eventName === 'purchaseCustom' && params.pmId == 'inbas') { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent: Invoice payments'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CEEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CEEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': 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event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## customEvent: ${event.eventName}`); } if (event.eventName === 'terms-accepted') { fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CETermsAccepted.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CETermsAccepted.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## customEvent triggered: fetch done'); } }).catch(err => console.log(err)); window.tp.offer.close(); } if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## customEvent triggered3: ${event.eventName}`); } }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'showOffer', offerParams => { if (window.digitalData && window.digitalData.component && typeof window.digitalData.component.push == 'function') { window.digitalData.component.push({ componentInfo: { componentID: 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data-resor="false" class="article"><section data-vars-danzz-article="" data-nzz-tid="article" data-nzz-referrer="articleLink" data-nzz-article="true" class="container container--article layout--regular"><div id="id-doc-1gr65i1qh0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="header" data-vars-danzz-first-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="headline"><div class="headline__highlight"><div class="headline__inner headline__inner--highlight"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--content teaser__flag--colored"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--default teaser__flag--default-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div></div> <h1 class="headline__title"> <span>Paradigmenwechsel</span></h1></div></div> <div class="headline__inner"><p class="headline__lead">Die Märkte hangeln sich von Datenpunkt zu Datenpunkt. Es gilt jedoch, vor lauter Lärm die relevanten Entwicklungen nicht aus den Augen zu verlieren. «The Big Picture» widmet sich heute deshalb dem ganz grossen Bild.</p> <div class="progressbar__wrapper"><div class="progressbar"><div class="progressbar__line"><div class="progressbar__line--fill" style="transform:translateX(-100%);"></div></div></div></div> <div class="headline__meta"> <div class="metainfo metainfo--content"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author"><a target="_blank" href="mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch">Mark Dittli ✉️</a></span>    <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date"><time datetime="2023-03-10T16:48:59.828Z"> 10.03.2023, 17.48 Uhr </time> </span></div> <div class="headline__meta-extra"><div class="actionbar actionbar--header"> <div class="popover__placeholder"><div></div> <div class="popover popover--header hidden"><div class="popover__container popover--header"><button class="button popover__close"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 14 14" class="button popover__close-icon svg-icon svg-fill" style="width:12px;height:12px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M1 1l12 12M1 13L13 1" _stroke="#000"/></svg></button> <div class="popover__content"><div class="popover__title">Neue Vorlese-Stimmen</div> <div class="popover__desc">Eine verbesserte Vorlesefunktion steht zur Verfügung. Probieren Sie es aus!</div></div></div></div></div>  <div class="actionbar__item actionbar__item--print"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 16" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:16px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M3.5.5v4h11v-4h-11z" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="1" d="M3.5 12.5H1.8a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3-1.3V5.8a1.3 1.3 0 011.3-1.3h14.4a1.3 1.3 0 011.3 1.3v5.4a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3 1.3h-1.7" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="2" d="M12.5 8.5h-7a2 2 0 00-2 2v3a2 2 0 002 2h7a2 2 0 002-2v-3a2 2 0 00-2-2z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Drucken</span></div></div> <div class="actionbar__item share" style="position:relative;"><div class="contextmenu-closed"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:18px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M10.48 1.18l6.795 6.584-6.794 6.353v-3.796l-.513.013c-2.052.051-3.758.423-5.238 1.2-1.471.773-2.684 1.927-3.785 3.49.565-2.854 1.539-5.138 3.005-6.82 1.467-1.683 3.456-2.8 6.116-3.263l.414-.072V1.181z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Teilen</span></div></div>  <div data-nzz-tid="contextmenu-overlay" class="overlay--container"> </div></div> </div></div></div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text"><em>«Wenn die Leiden kommen, <br>So kommen sie wie einzle Späher nicht, <br>Nein, in Geschwadern.»</em><br><sub><strong>William Shakespeare,</strong> aus Hamlet</sub></p><div id="id-doc-6d4e5713" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="barrier" is-new-line-child="true"><div id="paywall_container" class="disabled-overlay"></div></div><div id="id-doc-864e9abf" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="advertisement" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><em>«There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen.»</em><br><strong><sub>Warren Buffett</sub></strong></p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Plötzlich knirscht es im Gebälk des amerikanischen Bankensystems. Am Mittwoch meldete die <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/the-pulse/anlagestrategien-fuer-ein-comeback-von-tech-aktien-ld.7961">Kryptobank Silvergate</a> ihre Liquidation an, einen Tag später stürzte die Silicon Valley Bank an der Börse ab, weil sie sich mittels einer Kapitalerhöhung dringend Liquidität beschaffen musste. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der gesamte Bankensektor reagierte aus Furcht vor Ansteckungseffekten – es gibt nie nur eine Kakerlake – mit heftigen Verlusten. Der SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (Tickersymbol: KRE) büsste am Donnerstag 8% ein. Auch die Aktien der Giganten JPMorgan und Bank of America brachen mehr als 5% ein.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr6fiaf11" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Am Freitag setzte sich der Brand fort: Die Regionalbank First Republic meldete ebenfalls eine Kapitalerhöhung an, worauf ihre Aktien im frühen Handel in New York zwischenzeitlich um 50% abstürzten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr6fmn261" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Silicon Valley Bank vermochte sich derweil nicht zu retten; der <em>Bank Run</em> hat sie innerhalb weniger Stunden ausgeblutet, und sie wurde am Freitag von der staatlichen Einlagenschutzbehörde FDIC übernommen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/mister-market/europaeische-bankaktien-leiden-zu-stark-unter-der-kurskorrektur-in-den-usa-ld.8582">europäische Bankensektor</a> konnte sich der Panikwelle nicht entziehen. Die Titel der Credit Suisse fielen heute Freitag zeitweise auf ein neues Rekordtief unter 2.50 Fr.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qj5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Beben ist Ausdruck des Stresses, der angesichts des Straffungskurses der US-Notenbank (Fed) im Finanzsystem herrscht. Fed-Chef Jerome Powell bekräftigte diese Woche vor dem Kongress seine Bereitschaft, die Leitzinsen noch kräftiger in die Höhe zu schrauben, sollte die Entwicklung der Inflation dies erfordern.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es bietet sich an, sich in diesem Zusammenhang <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/interview/william-white-strukturelle-inflation-verlangt-hoehere-zinsen-ld.8479">die Worte von William White</a>, dem früheren Chefökonomen der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich, zu vergegenwärtigen:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><em>«Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte sind komplexe, adaptive Systeme. Sie folgen nicht einem linearen, deterministischen Pfad. Diese Systeme können über einen langen Zeitraum hinweg stabil sein und dann plötzlich instabil werden.»</em></p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ebenso lohnt es sich, sich die historische Erfahrung in Erinnerung zu rufen: Das Fed erhöht die Zinsen in der Regel so lange, bis irgendwo im Finanzsystem etwas kaputtgeht und eine Krise ausbricht:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=1200&height=906&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75.49%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="918" height="693" src="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=340&height=258&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=915,693,x0,y0" loading="eager" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=680&height=515&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=915,693,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=1360&height=1030&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=915,693,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=340&height=258&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=915,693,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div>  </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Märkte hangeln sich weiterhin von Datenpunkt zu Datenpunkt. Im Brennpunkt stand diese Woche der heute Freitag publizierte Arbeitsmarktbericht. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Diese Phase ist aus der Warte des Beobachters enorm spannend; so anspruchsvoll waren die Märkte seit Jahren nicht mehr. Doch gleichzeitig läuft man Gefahr, vor lauter Lärm und Staub die richtig grossen und relevanten Entwicklungen aus den Augen zu verlieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qk6" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Im dieswöchigen «Big Picture» gehen wir deshalb nur kurz auf die Aktualität ein, um uns im zweiten Teil dem ganz grossen Bild zu widmen.</p><div id="id-doc-1gn79frut0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-numeric" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><h2 class="enumeration__title">Die Themen</h2> <ol class="enumeration enumeration--numeric"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Arbeitsmarkt: erste Schwächezeichen?</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Paradigmenwechsel</li></ol></div><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gotjm5c10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>1. Arbeitsmarkt: erste Schwächezeichen?</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Arbeitsmarktbericht lieferte Licht und Schatten. Die US-Wirtschaft hat im Februar 311'000 neue Stellen geschaffen, womit die Erwartungen der Ökonomen abermals – wie schon in den Monaten zuvor – deutlich übertroffen wurden. Gleichzeitig erhöhte sich jedoch die Arbeitslosenquote (sie wird mittels einer anderen Umfrage erhoben) auf 3,6%, nach rekordtiefen 3,4% im Januar. Die durchschnittlichen Lohnkosten (Average Hourly Earnings) stiegen mit 4,6% im Jahresvergleich ebenfalls leicht weniger als erwartet.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In der Summe scheinen die Finanzmärkte die weicheren Aspekte des Arbeitsmarktberichts höher zu gewichten: Sie rechnen mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von knapp 60% mit einer Zinserhöhung von «nur» 25 Basispunkten (Bp) an der nächsten Fed-Sitzung vom 22. März. Nach den Aussagen Powells vor dem Kongress in der ersten Wochenhälfte hatten die Terminmärkte zunächst eine Zinserhöhung von 50 Bp eingepreist.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der nächste wichtige Agendapunkt ist nun der kommende Dienstag (14. März), wenn die Inflationsstatistiken (Consumer Price Index, CPI) für den Monat Februar veröffentlicht werden.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gr485slo0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>2. Paradigmenwechsel</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Paradigmenwechsel ist ein grosser Begriff. Er sollte mit Bedacht verwendet werden. Doch in der Weltwirtschaft findet gegenwärtig eine fundamentale Veränderung des Umfelds statt, die die Bezeichnung verdient: Sie zwingt zu einem Umdenken. «Wahrheiten», an die wir uns im Verlauf der vergangenen Jahrzehnte gewöhnt haben, gelten nicht mehr oder nur noch mit erheblichen Einschränkungen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es ist nicht leicht, diesen Wandel in seiner vollen Tragweite zu erfassen. Akute Fragen – Ist die Energiekrise in Europa gebannt? Fällt die Wirtschaft in eine Rezession? – und Schocks lenken von den wahren langfristigen Trends ab. Der Krieg in Europa, der die Schlagzeilen seit mehr als einem Jahr dominiert, ist ein derartiger Schock. Die Covid-Pandemie ebenso.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm6" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es ist normal, dass man diese Schocks als vorübergehende Störungen empfindet, bevor die Normalität wieder einkehrt. Und «normal» ist das Umfeld, das vor den Schocks geherrscht hatte. Man erhofft sich die Rückkehr zur alten Welt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm7" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das wird unserer Ansicht nach nicht geschehen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qm8" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Prozess der Veränderung – eben: der Paradigmenwechsel – erstreckt sich über Jahre, und er hat schon deutlich vor 2020 begonnen. Er wurde also weder von Covid noch von Russlands Aggression ursächlich ausgelöst. Dieser Prozess ist nicht abgeschlossen. Doch in Grundzügen ist die neue Welt, die sich präsentieren wird, wenn der Staub sich gelegt hat, bereits erkennbar.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qn0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span><strong>Ideologie versus Effizienz</strong></span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qn1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mehrere Trends summieren sich zu dieser fundamentalen Veränderung des weltwirtschaftlichen Umfelds. Zum Teil sind sie unabhängig voneinander entstanden, zum Teil sind sie eng verwoben, doch im Kern wirken sie alle in die gleiche Richtung: Sie führen zu einem höheren Inflationsdruck und damit zu einem strukturell höheren Zinsniveau.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qn2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die wichtigsten dieser Trends sind, <strong>erstens</strong>, die Fragmentierung der Weltwirtschaft. <strong>Zweitens</strong> die Rückkehr der protektionistischen Industriepolitik. <strong>Drittens</strong> die Dekarbonisierung und <strong>viertens</strong> die demografische Wende.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qn3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der erste Trend ist in der öffentlichen Diskussion so allgegenwärtig, dass man Gefahr läuft, ihn nicht mehr ernst zu nehmen. Aber seine Tragweite darf nicht unterschätzt werden. Es geht dabei nicht primär um eine Deglobalisierung, sondern um ein Auseinanderdriften und eine Intensivierung der Konfrontation zwischen den beiden grössten Volkswirtschaften der Welt: den USA und China.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qn4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mehr als dreissig Jahre lang sind Amerika und China zusammengewachsen, hat sich die Volksrepublik in das liberale, von Washington geprägte Weltwirtschaftssystem eingefügt. Dieser Prozess hat auf globaler Basis enorme Effizienzfortschritte ermöglicht. Jede noch so unbedeutende Komponente in der Vielzahl der weltweit gehandelten Güter fand ihren günstigsten Hersteller – und dieser sass sehr oft irgendwo zwischen Schanghai und Chengdu. Zwischen 1995 und 2019 ist das Preisniveau der in den westlichen Volkswirtschaften verkauften langlebigen Konsumgüter um mehr als 40% gesunken.</p><div id="id-doc-1gr65o6ns0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Der Produktionsstandort China als deflationäre Kraft" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-3j9x9" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3j9x9/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Diese Entwicklung lässt sich nicht wiederholen. Der neue Kalte Krieg zwischen den USA und China ist Tatsache. Sie stehen in einem ideologischen Konflikt, sie entfremden sich immer mehr. Eine Rückkehr zum Dialog werde immer schwieriger, <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/interview/joerg-wuttke-china-ist-viel-abhaengiger-von-europa-als-umgekehrt-ld.8574">sagt der langjährige China-Beobachter Jörg Wuttke</a>, Präsident der EU-Handelskammer in Peking: «Die Innenpolitik lässt es in beiden Ländern nicht mehr zu. Jede Seite hat ihre eigene Bevölkerung rhetorisch dermassen aufgepeitscht, dass es praktisch unmöglich ist, vom Rücken dieses Tigers abzusteigen.»</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Konfrontation beschränkt sich nicht auf Washington und Peking: Die Niederlande und Japan etwa kommen nicht umhin, die US-Sanktionen gegen Chinas Halbleiterindustrie mitzutragen. Die Entkopplung findet statt, die Produktion wird verlagert. Wertschöpfungsketten werden rückgebaut: Nicht mehr maximale Effizienz wird im Fokus stehen, sondern Sicherheit und ideologische Kompatibilität.<strong></strong></p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Nochmals: Das bedeutet nicht zwingend eine Deglobalisierung. Wertschöpfungsketten können nach Indien, Indonesien, Mexiko, Malaysia oder Vietnam verlagert werden. Aber es wird noch Jahre nicht möglich sein, die Effizienz der Produktionscluster in China eins zu eins zu ersetzen.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span><strong>Der Dirigismus kehrt zurück</strong></span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der zweite Trend betrifft die Rückkehr der protektionistischen Industriepolitik. In der «alten» Welt war es normal, dass Entwicklungsländer im Prozess des Aufstiegs ihre heimische Wirtschaft schützten. Die USA taten dies im 19. Jahrhundert ebenso wie Japan, Südkorea und Taiwan in der Nachkriegszeit des 20. Jahrhunderts. Mit steigender Prosperität öffneten sie sich und fügten sich ins freie Welthandelssystem ein. Dirigistisch veranlagte Staaten wie Frankreich blieben im Westen die Ausnahme und wurden belächelt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch die USA haben unter Donald Trump und Joe Biden eine historische Wende vollzogen. Trump führte medienwirksame Handelskriege, Biden hat das Thema auf eine neue Dimension gehoben: Auf Basis einer Reihe von Gesetzen wie dem Inflation Reduction Act und dem CHIPS Act werden enorme Subventionssummen aufgewendet, um Produktionskapazitäten in Bereichen wie Automobile, Batterien und erneuerbare Energien in Amerika anzusiedeln.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo6" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Eine Veränderung ist auch nach dem nächsten Wahlen von 2024 nicht in Sicht, denn sowohl Demokraten als auch Republikaner haben sich der «America First»-Strategie verschrieben. Die Republikanische Partei von Ronald Reagan oder Bush Senior und Junior, die Amerika als Schutzmacht eines offenen, liberalen Welthandelssystems verstanden, ist tot.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qo7" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die EU lässt sich nicht zweimal bitten und wälzt ebenfalls grosse industriepolitische Projekte. Die Folge ist eine weniger effiziente und damit teurere Weltwirtschaft. Lichtblicke sind zwar Freihandelsbestrebungen in Ost- und Südostasien, doch sie vermögen die Abkehr der USA nicht zu kompensieren.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qs0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span><strong>Strukturelle Knappheiten</strong></span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qs1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der dritte Trend erwächst aus dem Bedürfnis, die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels abzuwenden. Vereinfacht gesagt geht es dabei darum, die Wirtschaft zu dekarbonisieren und zu elektrifizieren. Fossile Brennstoffe sollen als Energiequellen von Erneuerbaren ersetzt werden. Doch dieser Prozess wird viele Jahre in Anspruch nehmen, mit nachteiligen Effekten in der Übergangsphase: Erstens haben die Förderer fossiler Energieträger keine Anreize, in neue Produktionskapazitäten zu investieren. Dadurch bleibt das Angebot tendenziell knapp, während die Nachfrage weiter wächst.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qs2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Zweitens benötigt die Elektrifizierung riesige Investitionen und Unmengen an Metallen wie Kupfer, Nickel, Aluminium, Kobalt sowie möglicherweise Uran. Doch auch diese Rohstoffe sind tendenziell knapp, da die Förderindustrie während Jahren keinen Anreiz hatte, in neue Kapazitäten zu investieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qs3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Selbst im laufenden Jahr liegen die Investitionsbudgets der grossen Rohstoffkonzerne gemäss einer Studie von Bank of America mit weniger als 50 Mrd. $ noch deutlich unter den Werten der Jahre 2011 bis 2014:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gr65i1qs4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png?width=1200&height=542&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:45.13%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1735" height="783" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png?width=680&height=306&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1735,782,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png?width=1360&height=613&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1735,782,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/10/53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png?width=340&height=153&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1735,782,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Quelle: Bank of America</span></div></div></figcaption> </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Aufbau einer neuen Energie-Infrastruktur benötigt enorme Kapitalinvestitionen. Dazu kommt, dass viele Staaten angesichts der neuen geopolitischen Realität deutlich mehr in Rüstung investieren müssen – auch das ein Paradigmenwechsel. Wer hätte vor zwei Jahren gedacht, dass Artilleriemunition und Panzer knapp werden könnten?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der vierte Trend schliesslich, die demografische Wende, wird von Charles Goodhart und Manoj Pradhan in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-demographic-reversal-and-what-it-means-for-the-economy/">«The Great Demographic Reversal»</a> treffend beschrieben: Eine Reihe von Faktoren – die Babyboom-Generation, die Öffnung Chinas ab 1978, der Mauerfall – stellten in den vergangenen vier Jahrzehnten ein schier unbegrenztes Angebot an Arbeitskräften sicher. Doch mittlerweile haben diese Trends gedreht, was zu chronischem Arbeitskräftemangel führt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die verbleibenden Reservoirs an Arbeitskräften finden sich in Afrika und im Nahen Osten, doch für die Ansiedlung von Produktionskapazitäten im grossen Stil sind diese Regionen von zu hoher politischer Unsicherheit geprägt. Und die Migration dieser Arbeitskräfte nach Europa, Ostasien oder die USA ist politisch inopportun.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span><strong>Umgekehrte Vorzeichen</strong></span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Entkopplung der Weltwirtschaft, die Rückkehr protektionistischer Industriepolitik, Dekarbonisierung sowie die demografische Wende haben mannigfaltige Auswirkungen und einen gemeinsamen Nenner: Sie verringern die Effizienz des Wirtschaftssystems, sie verknappen das aggregierte Angebot und erhöhen die aggregierte Nachfrage.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qt5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Daraus folgen strukturell höhere Preise – eine Umkehr der Entwicklung, die die vergangenen gut drei Jahrzehnte geprägt hat.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1qu0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es wird sich dabei freilich nicht um einen linearen Prozess handeln. Wie die inflationären Episoden in den USA in den späten Vierziger- und in den Siebzigerjahren gezeigt haben, folgt auf einen steilen Anstieg der Teuerung in der Regel eine rasche Disinflation, meist begleitet von einer Rezession. Bloss: Wenn sich die strukturellen Faktoren festgesetzt haben, flammt die Inflation im nächsten Aufschwung sofort wieder auf. Sie verhält sich wie ein Feuer, dem vorübergehend der Sauerstoff entzogen wurde.</p><div id="id-doc-1gr65pe5s0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Inflation USA, 1940 – 1955" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-utT6F" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/utT6F/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><div id="id-doc-1gr65pglu0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Inflation USA, 1965 – 1985" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OzJow" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OzJow/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r00" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Hierin liegt der wichtigste Umdenkprozess für alle, die in irgendeiner Form an den Finanzmärkten arbeiten: Die vergangenen vier Jahrzehnte waren von strukturell sinkenden Zinsen geprägt. Inflation war nie ein Thema, mit dem sich Anlegerinnen und Anleger ernsthaft beschäftigen mussten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r01" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das war das alte Paradigma, ausgelöst von Überfluss im aggregierten Angebot und begleitet – besonders prononciert nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 – von chronischem Mangel in der Nachfrage. Das bedeutete Überschussersparnisse und sinkende Zinsen. Das alte Paradigma war geprägt von Notenbanken, die zunehmend desperat versuchten, die Inflation auf über 1% anzuheben.</p><div id="id-doc-1gr65s3dv0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="The Biggest Picture: Zinsen und Inflation ab 1960" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gwh0b" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gwh0b/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die kommenden Jahre könnten genau vom Gegenteil geprägt sein. Das neue Paradigma besteht aus chronischem Mangel im Angebot, begleitet von steigender Nachfrage. Das bedeutet in der Tendenz: Steigende Preise, Knappheit an Kapital, steigende Zinsen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r11" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das neue Paradigma könnte also geprägt sein von Notenbanken, die immer wieder – ebenso desperat? – ein Aufflammen der Inflation bekämpfen müssen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r12" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das ist für Investoren nicht per se ein schlechtes Umfeld. Doch ein Paradigmenwechsel bedeutet, dass Themen und Gesetzmässigkeiten, die im alten Paradigma erfolgreich und gültig waren, in der neuen Welt hinterfragt werden müssen: Hohe Bewertungen gewisser Aktiensegmente und Immobilienmärkte, die von niedrigen Zinsen begünstigt wurden. Private Equity und Private Debt, deren Wachstum primär darauf basierte, dass institutionelle Investoren in der «alternativlosen» Nullzinswelt nach Rendite lechzten. Zentralbanken, die stets dafür sorgten, dass die Finanzmärkte in guter Stimmung blieben.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r13" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wer im alten Paradigma zu den Gewinnern zählte, dürfte im neuen Paradigma zu den Verlierern gehören.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r14" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die neue Welt wird in vielen Belangen grundlegend anders aussehen. Die Weltwirtschaft wird nicht mehr integriert, sondern fragmentiert sein. Die USA werden nicht mehr Garantin des offenen Welthandels sein. Der Krieg, in kalter und heisser Form, ist zurück.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r15" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Inflation und Zinsen dürften strukturell höher sein. Investoren sollten sich darauf vorbereiten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r16" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Zum Schluss noch ein Hinweis in eigener Sache: Das nächste <strong>«The Big Picture Live»</strong>-Webinar findet am <strong>Montag, 20. März, um 16 Uhr</strong> statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market können sich <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_bxYBa_UIRMuZ-Jc75J7eig">unter diesem Link</a> für die Teilnahme registrieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r20" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Danke für die Zeit, die Sie uns widmen. Wir wünschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r21" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Herzlich,</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gr65i1r22" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" data-vars-danzz-last-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mark Dittli und das Team von <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch">The Market</a></p><div id="id-doc-1gr65i1r23" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="sharebox" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"><div class="sharebox"><div class="sharebox__line"></div> <ul class="sharebox__content"><li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--bookmark"></li> <li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--print"><a href="" aria-current="page" title="Drucken" class="sharebox__link nuxt-link-exact-active nuxt-link-active"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 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flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/interview/joerg-wuttke-china-ist-viel-abhaengiger-von-europa-als-umgekehrt-ld.8574" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="«Im Bereich Elektrofahrzeuge gibt China enorm Gas und erarbeitet sich einen riesigen Exportvorteil»: Jörg Wuttke. (Bild: zvg)" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/10/24/29e67ace-e810-4a7d-aff4-7eba8127c076.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2236,1677,x1182,y870 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/10/24/29e67ace-e810-4a7d-aff4-7eba8127c076.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2236,1677,x1182,y870 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/10/24/29e67ace-e810-4a7d-aff4-7eba8127c076.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2236,1677,x1182,y870 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/10/24/29e67ace-e810-4a7d-aff4-7eba8127c076.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2236,1677,x1182,y870 240w" width="2237" height="1677" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/interview/joerg-wuttke-china-ist-viel-abhaengiger-von-europa-als-umgekehrt-ld.8574" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="1" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Interview </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--0">  <span class="teaser__title-name">«China ist viel abhängiger von Europa als umgekehrt»</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Jörg Wuttke, Präsident der EU-Handelskammer in China, spricht im Interview über seine ersten Eindrücke von der neuen Regierung und die Wachstumsperspektiven der zweitwichtigsten Volkswirtschaft der Welt.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">10.03.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8553" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-zwischen-inflation-und-rezession-ld.8553" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Die Finanzmärkte zwischen Licht und Schatten" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/03/c44b19a6-974c-4725-97c3-30937a449728.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4420,3315,x442,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/03/c44b19a6-974c-4725-97c3-30937a449728.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4420,3315,x442,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/03/c44b19a6-974c-4725-97c3-30937a449728.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4420,3315,x442,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/03/03/c44b19a6-974c-4725-97c3-30937a449728.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4420,3315,x442,y0 240w" width="4420" height="3315" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-zwischen-inflation-und-rezession-ld.8553" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="2" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--1">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Die Finanzmärkte zwischen Licht und Schatten</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Die Stimmung in der Weltwirtschaft hat sich aufgehellt, eine Rezession bleibt aus. Doch das erhöht den Inflationsdruck und zwingt die Zentralbanken, mit den Zinsen «Higher for Longer» zu gehen.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">03.03.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8477" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/ominoese-signale-an-den-aktienmaerkten-ld.8477" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Ominöse Signale" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/8b44195e-c657-4226-a347-347d53e84305.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4864,3648,x304,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/8b44195e-c657-4226-a347-347d53e84305.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4864,3648,x304,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/8b44195e-c657-4226-a347-347d53e84305.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4864,3648,x304,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/8b44195e-c657-4226-a347-347d53e84305.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4864,3648,x304,y0 240w" width="4864" height="3648" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/ominoese-signale-an-den-aktienmaerkten-ld.8477" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="3" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--2">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Ominöse Signale</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Die «Goldilocks»-Hoffnung weicht der Einsicht, dass die Zinsen für längere Zeit auf höherem Niveau verharren müssen. Der Bondmarkt hat das realisiert – der von Spekulationsfieber getriebene Aktienmarkt noch nicht.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">17.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8407" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-warten-auf-neue-impulse-ld.8407" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Die Märkte warten auf neue Impulse" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 240w" width="1396" height="1047" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-warten-auf-neue-impulse-ld.8407" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="4" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--3">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Die Märkte warten auf neue Impulse</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Investoren richten sich in Bezug auf die Geldpolitik des Fed auf ein «Higher for longer» ein. Die Bondrenditen steigen wieder. Aus China sind noch kaum Wachstumssignale zu sehen.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">10.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article></div></div></div></section></section> <div class="cve articlepromobox"></div>   </div></div></div> <div id="footer" class="footer"> <div class="footer__section"><h2 class="footer__section--title"> </h2> <ul class="footer__section--list"><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://abo.themarket.ch/kontakt/" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Abo-Service </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/agb" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> AGB/Datenschutz </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/impressum" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Impressum </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://themarket.ch/feedback" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Feedback </a></li></ul></div> <div class="footer__print"> Copyright © The Market Media AG. 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Market, Schweiz";bP.url=bb;bP.logo={"@type":"ImageObject",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Flogo.png",width:413,height:60};bP.contactPoint=[{"@type":"ContactPoint",telephone:"+41-44-2581000",contactType:"customer service"}];bP.sameAs=["https:\u002F\u002Fwww.facebook.com\u002FTheMarketCH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.twitter.com\u002FTheMarket_CH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fcompany\u002Fthe-market-ch\u002F"];bT.title="Suche The Market, Schweiz, https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fsuche";bT.href="\u002Fsuche";bX.standard={Tags:[G,"classification=default","language=de-CH","the-big-picture","product=themarket","doctype=article","pagetype=article","ldid=ld.8584","channel=The Big Picture"],ContentCreated:a_,ContentAuthor:r,ContentSection:h,ContentIsNative:d};bX.custom={product:ba,docType:q,pageType:q,layout:m,ldId:H,channel:h,heading:l,language:A};return {layout:"default",data:[{data:{content:[{identifier:bi,id:"doc-1gr65i1qh0",content:{title:l,lead:L,author:"\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch\"\u003EMark Dittli ✉️\u003C\u002Fa\u003E"},component:"header",prevElement:a,nextElement:c,firstContentElement:d},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj0",content:{text:"\u003Cem\u003E«Wenn die Leiden kommen, \u003Cbr\u003ESo kommen sie wie einzle Späher nicht, \u003Cbr\u003ENein, in Geschwadern.»\u003C\u002Fem\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Csub\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWilliam Shakespeare,\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E aus Hamlet\u003C\u002Fsub\u003E"},component:e,prevElement:bi,nextElement:aR},{id:"doc-6d4e5713",identifier:aR,prevElement:c,nextElement:aS},{id:"doc-864e9abf",identifier:aS,paidContent:d,prevElement:aR,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj1",content:{text:"\u003Cem\u003E«There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen.»\u003C\u002Fem\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Csub\u003EWarren Buffett\u003C\u002Fsub\u003E\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:aS,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj2",content:{text:"Plötzlich knirscht es im Gebälk des amerikanischen Bankensystems. Am Mittwoch meldete die \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fthe-pulse\u002Fanlagestrategien-fuer-ein-comeback-von-tech-aktien-ld.7961\"\u003EKryptobank Silvergate\u003C\u002Fa\u003E ihre Liquidation an, einen Tag später stürzte die Silicon Valley Bank an der Börse ab, weil sie sich mittels einer Kapitalerhöhung dringend Liquidität beschaffen musste. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj3",content:{text:"Der gesamte Bankensektor reagierte aus Furcht vor Ansteckungseffekten – es gibt nie nur eine Kakerlake – mit heftigen Verlusten. Der SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (Tickersymbol: KRE) büsste am Donnerstag 8% ein. Auch die Aktien der Giganten JPMorgan und Bank of America brachen mehr als 5% ein."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr6fiaf11",content:{text:"Am Freitag setzte sich der Brand fort: Die Regionalbank First Republic meldete ebenfalls eine Kapitalerhöhung an, worauf ihre Aktien im frühen Handel in New York zwischenzeitlich um 50% abstürzten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr6fmn261",content:{text:"Silicon Valley Bank vermochte sich derweil nicht zu retten; der \u003Cem\u003EBank Run\u003C\u002Fem\u003E hat sie innerhalb weniger Stunden ausgeblutet, und sie wurde am Freitag von der staatlichen Einlagenschutzbehörde FDIC übernommen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj4",content:{text:"Der \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fmister-market\u002Feuropaeische-bankaktien-leiden-zu-stark-unter-der-kurskorrektur-in-den-usa-ld.8582\"\u003Eeuropäische Bankensektor\u003C\u002Fa\u003E konnte sich der Panikwelle nicht entziehen. Die Titel der Credit Suisse fielen heute Freitag zeitweise auf ein neues Rekordtief unter 2.50 Fr."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qj5",content:{text:"Das Beben ist Ausdruck des Stresses, der angesichts des Straffungskurses der US-Notenbank (Fed) im Finanzsystem herrscht. Fed-Chef Jerome Powell bekräftigte diese Woche vor dem Kongress seine Bereitschaft, die Leitzinsen noch kräftiger in die Höhe zu schrauben, sollte die Entwicklung der Inflation dies erfordern."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk0",content:{text:"Es bietet sich an, sich in diesem Zusammenhang \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Finterview\u002Fwilliam-white-strukturelle-inflation-verlangt-hoehere-zinsen-ld.8479\"\u003Edie Worte von William White\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, dem früheren Chefökonomen der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich, zu vergegenwärtigen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk1",content:{text:"\u003Cem\u003E«Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte sind komplexe, adaptive Systeme. Sie folgen nicht einem linearen, deterministischen Pfad. Diese Systeme können über einen langen Zeitraum hinweg stabil sein und dann plötzlich instabil werden.»\u003C\u002Fem\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk2",content:{text:"Ebenso lohnt es sich, sich die historische Erfahrung in Erinnerung zu rufen: Das Fed erhöht die Zinsen in der Regel so lange, bis irgendwo im Finanzsystem etwas kaputtgeht und eine Krise ausbricht:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:B},{identifier:B,id:bj,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"LMWbpUwJ4AIR",width:918,height:693,mimeType:bk,imageService:x,key:"2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F08bcd5a6-d1be-4a01-b824-ecd8b2b09b85.png"}},component:bl,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk4",content:{text:"Die Märkte hangeln sich weiterhin von Datenpunkt zu Datenpunkt. Im Brennpunkt stand diese Woche der heute Freitag publizierte Arbeitsmarktbericht. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:B,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk5",content:{text:"Diese Phase ist aus der Warte des Beobachters enorm spannend; so anspruchsvoll waren die Märkte seit Jahren nicht mehr. Doch gleichzeitig läuft man Gefahr, vor lauter Lärm und Staub die richtig grossen und relevanten Entwicklungen aus den Augen zu verlieren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qk6",content:{text:"Im dieswöchigen «Big Picture» gehen wir deshalb nur kurz auf die Aktualität ein, um uns im zweiten Teil dem ganz grossen Bild zu widmen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:aT},{identifier:aT,id:"doc-1gn79frut0",content:{title:"Die Themen"},containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:bm,id:"doc-1gn79frut1",content:{text:"Arbeitsmarkt: erste Schwächezeichen?"},component:bn},{identifier:bm,id:"doc-1gn79he6p0",content:{text:l},component:bn}]},component:"enumeration-numeric",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gotjm5c10",content:{title:"1. Arbeitsmarkt: erste Schwächezeichen?",id:"subtitle-1-arbeitsmarkt-erste-schw-chezeichen"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:aT,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm1",content:{text:"Der Arbeitsmarktbericht lieferte Licht und Schatten. Die US-Wirtschaft hat im Februar 311'000 neue Stellen geschaffen, womit die Erwartungen der Ökonomen abermals – wie schon in den Monaten zuvor – deutlich übertroffen wurden. Gleichzeitig erhöhte sich jedoch die Arbeitslosenquote (sie wird mittels einer anderen Umfrage erhoben) auf 3,6%, nach rekordtiefen 3,4% im Januar. Die durchschnittlichen Lohnkosten (Average Hourly Earnings) stiegen mit 4,6% im Jahresvergleich ebenfalls leicht weniger als erwartet."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm2",content:{text:"In der Summe scheinen die Finanzmärkte die weicheren Aspekte des Arbeitsmarktberichts höher zu gewichten: Sie rechnen mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von knapp 60% mit einer Zinserhöhung von «nur» 25 Basispunkten (Bp) an der nächsten Fed-Sitzung vom 22. März. Nach den Aussagen Powells vor dem Kongress in der ersten Wochenhälfte hatten die Terminmärkte zunächst eine Zinserhöhung von 50 Bp eingepreist."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm3",content:{text:"Der nächste wichtige Agendapunkt ist nun der kommende Dienstag (14. März), wenn die Inflationsstatistiken (Consumer Price Index, CPI) für den Monat Februar veröffentlicht werden."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gr485slo0",content:{title:"2. Paradigmenwechsel",id:"subtitle-2-paradigmenwechsel"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm4",content:{text:"Paradigmenwechsel ist ein grosser Begriff. Er sollte mit Bedacht verwendet werden. Doch in der Weltwirtschaft findet gegenwärtig eine fundamentale Veränderung des Umfelds statt, die die Bezeichnung verdient: Sie zwingt zu einem Umdenken. «Wahrheiten», an die wir uns im Verlauf der vergangenen Jahrzehnte gewöhnt haben, gelten nicht mehr oder nur noch mit erheblichen Einschränkungen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm5",content:{text:"Es ist nicht leicht, diesen Wandel in seiner vollen Tragweite zu erfassen. Akute Fragen – Ist die Energiekrise in Europa gebannt? Fällt die Wirtschaft in eine Rezession? – und Schocks lenken von den wahren langfristigen Trends ab. Der Krieg in Europa, der die Schlagzeilen seit mehr als einem Jahr dominiert, ist ein derartiger Schock. Die Covid-Pandemie ebenso."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm6",content:{text:"Es ist normal, dass man diese Schocks als vorübergehende Störungen empfindet, bevor die Normalität wieder einkehrt. Und «normal» ist das Umfeld, das vor den Schocks geherrscht hatte. Man erhofft sich die Rückkehr zur alten Welt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm7",content:{text:"Das wird unserer Ansicht nach nicht geschehen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qm8",content:{text:"Der Prozess der Veränderung – eben: der Paradigmenwechsel – erstreckt sich über Jahre, und er hat schon deutlich vor 2020 begonnen. Er wurde also weder von Covid noch von Russlands Aggression ursächlich ausgelöst. Dieser Prozess ist nicht abgeschlossen. Doch in Grundzügen ist die neue Welt, die sich präsentieren wird, wenn der Staub sich gelegt hat, bereits erkennbar."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gr65i1qn0",content:{title:"\u003Cstrong\u003EIdeologie versus Effizienz\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E",id:"subtitle-ideologie-versus-effizienz"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qn1",content:{text:"Mehrere Trends summieren sich zu dieser fundamentalen Veränderung des weltwirtschaftlichen Umfelds. Zum Teil sind sie unabhängig voneinander entstanden, zum Teil sind sie eng verwoben, doch im Kern wirken sie alle in die gleiche Richtung: Sie führen zu einem höheren Inflationsdruck und damit zu einem strukturell höheren Zinsniveau."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qn2",content:{text:"Die wichtigsten dieser Trends sind, \u003Cstrong\u003Eerstens\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E, die Fragmentierung der Weltwirtschaft. \u003Cstrong\u003EZweitens\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E die Rückkehr der protektionistischen Industriepolitik. \u003Cstrong\u003EDrittens\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E die Dekarbonisierung und \u003Cstrong\u003Eviertens\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E die demografische Wende."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qn3",content:{text:"Der erste Trend ist in der öffentlichen Diskussion so allgegenwärtig, dass man Gefahr läuft, ihn nicht mehr ernst zu nehmen. Aber seine Tragweite darf nicht unterschätzt werden. Es geht dabei nicht primär um eine Deglobalisierung, sondern um ein Auseinanderdriften und eine Intensivierung der Konfrontation zwischen den beiden grössten Volkswirtschaften der Welt: den USA und China."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qn4",content:{text:"Mehr als dreissig Jahre lang sind Amerika und China zusammengewachsen, hat sich die Volksrepublik in das liberale, von Washington geprägte Weltwirtschaftssystem eingefügt. Dieser Prozess hat auf globaler Basis enorme Effizienzfortschritte ermöglicht. Jede noch so unbedeutende Komponente in der Vielzahl der weltweit gehandelten Güter fand ihren günstigsten Hersteller – und dieser sass sehr oft irgendwo zwischen Schanghai und Chengdu. Zwischen 1995 und 2019 ist das Preisniveau der in den westlichen Volkswirtschaften verkauften langlebigen Konsumgüter um mehr als 40% gesunken."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:n},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1gr65o6ns0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Der Produktionsstandort China als deflationäre Kraft\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-3j9x9\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002F3j9x9\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:t}},component:t,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo0",content:{text:"Diese Entwicklung lässt sich nicht wiederholen. Der neue Kalte Krieg zwischen den USA und China ist Tatsache. Sie stehen in einem ideologischen Konflikt, sie entfremden sich immer mehr. Eine Rückkehr zum Dialog werde immer schwieriger, \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Finterview\u002Fjoerg-wuttke-china-ist-viel-abhaengiger-von-europa-als-umgekehrt-ld.8574\"\u003Esagt der langjährige China-Beobachter Jörg Wuttke\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, Präsident der EU-Handelskammer in Peking: «Die Innenpolitik lässt es in beiden Ländern nicht mehr zu. Jede Seite hat ihre eigene Bevölkerung rhetorisch dermassen aufgepeitscht, dass es praktisch unmöglich ist, vom Rücken dieses Tigers abzusteigen.»"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:n,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo1",content:{text:"Die Konfrontation beschränkt sich nicht auf Washington und Peking: Die Niederlande und Japan etwa kommen nicht umhin, die US-Sanktionen gegen Chinas Halbleiterindustrie mitzutragen. Die Entkopplung findet statt, die Produktion wird verlagert. Wertschöpfungsketten werden rückgebaut: Nicht mehr maximale Effizienz wird im Fokus stehen, sondern Sicherheit und ideologische Kompatibilität.\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo2",content:{text:"Nochmals: Das bedeutet nicht zwingend eine Deglobalisierung. Wertschöpfungsketten können nach Indien, Indonesien, Mexiko, Malaysia oder Vietnam verlagert werden. Aber es wird noch Jahre nicht möglich sein, die Effizienz der Produktionscluster in China eins zu eins zu ersetzen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo3",content:{title:"\u003Cstrong\u003EDer Dirigismus kehrt zurück\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E",id:"subtitle-der-dirigismus-kehrt-zur-ck"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo4",content:{text:"Der zweite Trend betrifft die Rückkehr der protektionistischen Industriepolitik. In der «alten» Welt war es normal, dass Entwicklungsländer im Prozess des Aufstiegs ihre heimische Wirtschaft schützten. Die USA taten dies im 19. Jahrhundert ebenso wie Japan, Südkorea und Taiwan in der Nachkriegszeit des 20. Jahrhunderts. Mit steigender Prosperität öffneten sie sich und fügten sich ins freie Welthandelssystem ein. Dirigistisch veranlagte Staaten wie Frankreich blieben im Westen die Ausnahme und wurden belächelt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo5",content:{text:"Doch die USA haben unter Donald Trump und Joe Biden eine historische Wende vollzogen. Trump führte medienwirksame Handelskriege, Biden hat das Thema auf eine neue Dimension gehoben: Auf Basis einer Reihe von Gesetzen wie dem Inflation Reduction Act und dem CHIPS Act werden enorme Subventionssummen aufgewendet, um Produktionskapazitäten in Bereichen wie Automobile, Batterien und erneuerbare Energien in Amerika anzusiedeln."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo6",content:{text:"Eine Veränderung ist auch nach dem nächsten Wahlen von 2024 nicht in Sicht, denn sowohl Demokraten als auch Republikaner haben sich der «America First»-Strategie verschrieben. Die Republikanische Partei von Ronald Reagan oder Bush Senior und Junior, die Amerika als Schutzmacht eines offenen, liberalen Welthandelssystems verstanden, ist tot."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qo7",content:{text:"Die EU lässt sich nicht zweimal bitten und wälzt ebenfalls grosse industriepolitische Projekte. Die Folge ist eine weniger effiziente und damit teurere Weltwirtschaft. Lichtblicke sind zwar Freihandelsbestrebungen in Ost- und Südostasien, doch sie vermögen die Abkehr der USA nicht zu kompensieren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gr65i1qs0",content:{title:"\u003Cstrong\u003EStrukturelle Knappheiten\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E",id:"subtitle-strukturelle-knappheiten"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qs1",content:{text:"Der dritte Trend erwächst aus dem Bedürfnis, die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels abzuwenden. Vereinfacht gesagt geht es dabei darum, die Wirtschaft zu dekarbonisieren und zu elektrifizieren. Fossile Brennstoffe sollen als Energiequellen von Erneuerbaren ersetzt werden. Doch dieser Prozess wird viele Jahre in Anspruch nehmen, mit nachteiligen Effekten in der Übergangsphase: Erstens haben die Förderer fossiler Energieträger keine Anreize, in neue Produktionskapazitäten zu investieren. Dadurch bleibt das Angebot tendenziell knapp, während die Nachfrage weiter wächst."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qs2",content:{text:"Zweitens benötigt die Elektrifizierung riesige Investitionen und Unmengen an Metallen wie Kupfer, Nickel, Aluminium, Kobalt sowie möglicherweise Uran. Doch auch diese Rohstoffe sind tendenziell knapp, da die Förderindustrie während Jahren keinen Anreiz hatte, in neue Kapazitäten zu investieren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qs3",content:{text:"Selbst im laufenden Jahr liegen die Investitionsbudgets der grossen Rohstoffkonzerne gemäss einer Studie von Bank of America mit weniger als 50 Mrd. $ noch deutlich unter den Werten der Jahre 2011 bis 2014:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:B},{identifier:B,id:bo,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"hsSe4gA4HBMQ",width:1735,height:783,mimeType:bk,imageService:x,key:"2023\u002F03\u002F10\u002F53f2d8bb-8c7b-4425-80e3-d2c37802cc35.png"},author:ag},component:bl,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt0",content:{text:"Der Aufbau einer neuen Energie-Infrastruktur benötigt enorme Kapitalinvestitionen. Dazu kommt, dass viele Staaten angesichts der neuen geopolitischen Realität deutlich mehr in Rüstung investieren müssen – auch das ein Paradigmenwechsel. Wer hätte vor zwei Jahren gedacht, dass Artilleriemunition und Panzer knapp werden könnten?"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:B,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt1",content:{text:"Der vierte Trend schliesslich, die demografische Wende, wird von Charles Goodhart und Manoj Pradhan in \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fblogs.lse.ac.uk\u002Fbusinessreview\u002F2020\u002F09\u002F18\u002Fthe-great-demographic-reversal-and-what-it-means-for-the-economy\u002F\"\u003E«The Great Demographic Reversal»\u003C\u002Fa\u003E treffend beschrieben: Eine Reihe von Faktoren – die Babyboom-Generation, die Öffnung Chinas ab 1978, der Mauerfall – stellten in den vergangenen vier Jahrzehnten ein schier unbegrenztes Angebot an Arbeitskräften sicher. Doch mittlerweile haben diese Trends gedreht, was zu chronischem Arbeitskräftemangel führt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt2",content:{text:"Die verbleibenden Reservoirs an Arbeitskräften finden sich in Afrika und im Nahen Osten, doch für die Ansiedlung von Produktionskapazitäten im grossen Stil sind diese Regionen von zu hoher politischer Unsicherheit geprägt. Und die Migration dieser Arbeitskräfte nach Europa, Ostasien oder die USA ist politisch inopportun."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt3",content:{title:"\u003Cstrong\u003EUmgekehrte Vorzeichen\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E",id:"subtitle-umgekehrte-vorzeichen"},component:C,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt4",content:{text:"Entkopplung der Weltwirtschaft, die Rückkehr protektionistischer Industriepolitik, Dekarbonisierung sowie die demografische Wende haben mannigfaltige Auswirkungen und einen gemeinsamen Nenner: Sie verringern die Effizienz des Wirtschaftssystems, sie verknappen das aggregierte Angebot und erhöhen die aggregierte Nachfrage."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qt5",content:{text:"Daraus folgen strukturell höhere Preise – eine Umkehr der Entwicklung, die die vergangenen gut drei Jahrzehnte geprägt hat."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1qu0",content:{text:"Es wird sich dabei freilich nicht um einen linearen Prozess handeln. Wie die inflationären Episoden in den USA in den späten Vierziger- und in den Siebzigerjahren gezeigt haben, folgt auf einen steilen Anstieg der Teuerung in der Regel eine rasche Disinflation, meist begleitet von einer Rezession. Bloss: Wenn sich die strukturellen Faktoren festgesetzt haben, flammt die Inflation im nächsten Aufschwung sofort wieder auf. Sie verhält sich wie ein Feuer, dem vorübergehend der Sauerstoff entzogen wurde."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:n},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1gr65pe5s0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Inflation USA, 1940 – 1955\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-utT6F\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FutT6F\u002F3\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:t}},component:t,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:n},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1gr65pglu0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Inflation USA, 1965 – 1985\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-OzJow\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FOzJow\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:t}},component:t,paidContent:d,prevElement:n,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r00",content:{text:"Hierin liegt der wichtigste Umdenkprozess für alle, die in irgendeiner Form an den Finanzmärkten arbeiten: Die vergangenen vier Jahrzehnte waren von strukturell sinkenden Zinsen geprägt. Inflation war nie ein Thema, mit dem sich Anlegerinnen und Anleger ernsthaft beschäftigen mussten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:n,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r01",content:{text:"Das war das alte Paradigma, ausgelöst von Überfluss im aggregierten Angebot und begleitet – besonders prononciert nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 – von chronischem Mangel in der Nachfrage. Das bedeutete Überschussersparnisse und sinkende Zinsen. Das alte Paradigma war geprägt von Notenbanken, die zunehmend desperat versuchten, die Inflation auf über 1% anzuheben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:n},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1gr65s3dv0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"The Biggest Picture: Zinsen und Inflation ab 1960\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-gwh0b\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002Fgwh0b\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:t}},component:t,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r10",content:{text:"Die kommenden Jahre könnten genau vom Gegenteil geprägt sein. Das neue Paradigma besteht aus chronischem Mangel im Angebot, begleitet von steigender Nachfrage. Das bedeutet in der Tendenz: Steigende Preise, Knappheit an Kapital, steigende Zinsen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:n,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r11",content:{text:"Das neue Paradigma könnte also geprägt sein von Notenbanken, die immer wieder – ebenso desperat? – ein Aufflammen der Inflation bekämpfen müssen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r12",content:{text:"Das ist für Investoren nicht per se ein schlechtes Umfeld. Doch ein Paradigmenwechsel bedeutet, dass Themen und Gesetzmässigkeiten, die im alten Paradigma erfolgreich und gültig waren, in der neuen Welt hinterfragt werden müssen: Hohe Bewertungen gewisser Aktiensegmente und Immobilienmärkte, die von niedrigen Zinsen begünstigt wurden. Private Equity und Private Debt, deren Wachstum primär darauf basierte, dass institutionelle Investoren in der «alternativlosen» Nullzinswelt nach Rendite lechzten. Zentralbanken, die stets dafür sorgten, dass die Finanzmärkte in guter Stimmung blieben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r13",content:{text:"Wer im alten Paradigma zu den Gewinnern zählte, dürfte im neuen Paradigma zu den Verlierern gehören."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r14",content:{text:"Die neue Welt wird in vielen Belangen grundlegend anders aussehen. Die Weltwirtschaft wird nicht mehr integriert, sondern fragmentiert sein. Die USA werden nicht mehr Garantin des offenen Welthandels sein. Der Krieg, in kalter und heisser Form, ist zurück."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r15",content:{text:"Inflation und Zinsen dürften strukturell höher sein. Investoren sollten sich darauf vorbereiten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r16",content:{text:"Zum Schluss noch ein Hinweis in eigener Sache: Das nächste \u003Cstrong\u003E«The Big Picture Live»\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E-Webinar findet am \u003Cstrong\u003EMontag, 20. März, um 16 Uhr\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market können sich \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fus02web.zoom.us\u002Fwebinar\u002Fregister\u002FWN_bxYBa_UIRMuZ-Jc75J7eig\"\u003Eunter diesem Link\u003C\u002Fa\u003E für die Teilnahme registrieren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r20",content:{text:"Danke für die Zeit, die Sie uns widmen. Wir wünschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r21",content:{text:"Herzlich,"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gr65i1r22",content:{text:"Mark Dittli und das Team von \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\"\u003EThe Market\u003C\u002Fa\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:aU,lastContentElement:d},{identifier:aU,id:"doc-1gr65i1r23",component:"sharebox",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:bp},{identifier:bp,id:"doc-1gr65stip0",containers:{"moreToSubject-area":[{identifier:ah,id:"doc-1gr65u6gc0",content:{"link-box-embed":{service:ai,params:{type:aj,layout:[m,ak,al,am,an,ao,M,N,O,P,ap,Q,R,S,T,U],mediaId:8574}},article:{metadata:{teaserAuthor:bq,contentTypeGroup:y,flag:z,significantUpdate:b,language:{groupId:"kQkStkaCrlgk",label:D,locale:br},title:"«China ist viel abhängiger von Europa als 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Es gilt jedoch, vor lauter Lärm die relevanten Entwicklungen nicht aus den Augen zu verlieren. «The Big Picture» widmet sich heute deshalb dem ganz grossen Bild.","longformvisual","longformstandard","briefing","briefing-intl","opinion","advertisement-regular","advertisement-longformvisual","advertisement-gallery","advertisement-video","Mark Dittli (md)",6,"16:9",1.77778,"1:1","4:3",1.33333,"\u002F\u002Fassets.static-nzz.ch\u002Flivingdocs\u002Fresrc-0.9.0.min.js","browserPlugins.resrcit",3597,"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fthe-big-picture\u002Fparadigmenwechsel-ld.8584","nzzas","preload","Quelle: Bank of America","judi.moreToSubject--internal","embed-teaser","link-box-embed","gallery","video","fullwidth","alias-teaser","matchcard-teaser","recipe","moreToSubject--internal",3315,"Quelle: Jefferies",3648,"Quelle: Bianco Research",1491,"The Market","main","Empfehlungen","\u002Fempfehlungen","Unternehmen","\u002Funternehmen","Strategie","\u002Fstrategie","Meinung","\u002Fmeinung","Mr Market","\u002Fmister-market","\u002Fenglish","https:\u002F\u002Fabo.themarket.ch\u002Fkampagne\u002F?lp=19003844","\u002Fagb","Impressum","\u002Fimpressum","48","anonymous","font\u002Fwoff2","font","judi.barrier","judi.advertisement","judi.enumeration-numeric","judi.sharebox","2023-03-10T03:28:17.821Z","Quelle: BCA","German","2023-02-17T16:56:16.994Z","2023-03-10T16:48:59.828Z","2023-03-10T19:25:03.308Z","classification=default,language=de-CH","themarket","https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch","Article","The Market abonnieren","Startseite","\u002F","\u003Cp\u003EEs ist ein Fehler aufgetreten. Bitte prüfen Sie Ihre Internetverbindung oder versuchen Sie es später erneut.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E","bellevue","judi.header","doc-1gr65i1qk3","image\u002Fpng","image","judi.enumeration-item","enumeration-item","doc-1gr65i1qs4","judi.moreToSubject","Bild: zvg","en-US","Jörg Wuttke, Präsident der EU-Handelskammer in China, spricht im Interview über seine ersten Eindrücke von der neuen Regierung und die Wachstumsperspektiven der zweitwichtigsten Volkswirtschaft der Welt.",1767,"ld.8574","«Im Bereich Elektrofahrzeuge gibt China enorm Gas und erarbeitet sich einen riesigen Exportvorteil»: Jörg Wuttke.","2023-03-03T16:24:03.255Z","Die Stimmung in der Weltwirtschaft hat sich aufgehellt, eine Rezession bleibt aus. Doch das erhöht den Inflationsdruck und zwingt die Zentralbanken, mit den Zinsen «Higher for Longer» zu gehen.",5304,"ld.8553","Die «Goldilocks»-Hoffnung weicht der Einsicht, dass die Zinsen für längere Zeit auf höherem Niveau verharren müssen. Der Bondmarkt hat das realisiert – der von Spekulationsfieber getriebene Aktienmarkt noch nicht.",5472,"ld.8477","Investoren richten sich in Bezug auf die Geldpolitik des Fed auf ein «Higher for longer» ein. Die Bondrenditen steigen wieder. 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