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else if (accountSalutation === "[\"male\"]") { salutation_text_TEM = "Sehr geehrter Herr"; } /* Update custom field with new value */ fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.uid, /* replace correct form ID and custom field ID */ form_id: config.salutationForm.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify({ salutation_text_TEM: salutation_text_TEM }) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM updated to ${salutation_text_TEM}`); } if (window.localStorage) { window.localStorage.setItem(`nzz-salutation`, data.uid); } }).catch(e => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM error: ${e}`); } }).finally(() => { if (forceReload) { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## pianoUpdateSalutation forceReload, because of source PIANOID'); } window.location.reload(); } });}; ((bT, clientCountryPreference, config) => { let tags = []; if (bT && bT.standard) { Object.keys(bT.standard).forEach(key => { tags.push([`set${key}`, bT.standard[key]]); }); } if (bT && bT.custom) { Object.keys(bT.custom).forEach(key => { tags.push(['setCustomVariable', key, bT.custom[key]]); }); } return function pianoMain() { if (!window.tp) { window.tp = window.tp || []; window.digitalData = window.digitalData || {}; window.digitalData.user = [{ profile: [{ attributes: { piano: { clientCountryCode: clientCountryPreference || 'CH' } }, profileInfo: { profileID: '', gender: '', userHash: '4defa01e671ab8c019597a9b2cc3d662' } }] }]; /* Set Application ID */ if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c ##piano## :VERSION V43', 'background: yellow;color:black'); } window.tp.push(['setAid', config.aid]); if (config.dmpSiteId) { window.tp.push(['setCxenseSiteId', config.dmpSiteId]); } /* Is application in sandbox */ window.tp.push(['setSandbox', config.isSandbox === 'true']); /* Does application use Piano ID? */ if (config.isSandbox === 'false') { window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://id-eu.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://buy-eu.piano.io/api/v3']); } else { window.tp.push(['setPianoIdUrl', 'https://sandbox.piano.io']); window.tp.push(['setEndpoint', 'https://sandbox.tinypass.com/api/v3']); } window.tp.push(['setUseTinypassAccounts', false]); window.tp.push(['setUsePianoIdUserProvider', true]); /* gift article */ try { const urlParams = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search); if (urlParams.has('gift_created') && new Date(urlParams.get('gift_created') / 1 * 1000) > Date.now() - 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) { window.tp.push(['setCustomVariable', 'shared_article_valid', 'true']); } } catch (e) { console.log(e); } /* Execute when the page is first loaded */ if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c set tags', 'background: yellow;color:black'); } tags.forEach(function (tag) { window.tp.push(tag); }); window.tp.push(['init', function () { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('%c init piano', 'background: green;color:yellow'); } window.nzzPianoLoaded = true; window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'registrationSuccess', data => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## registrationSuccess:'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.user.sub, form_id: config.RSEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.RSEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': data.token, 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'loginSuccess', callbackData => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## loginSuccess in init', callbackData.source); } window.tp.pianoId.loadExtendedUser({ extendedUserLoaded: function (data) { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## extendedUserLoaded for salutation', data); } let salutationField = null; const customFieldValues = data.custom_field_values; if (customFieldValues && customFieldValues.length > 0) { for (const field of customFieldValues) { if (field.field_name === "account_salutation") { salutationField = field; } } } let forceReload = false; if (callbackData.source == "PIANOID") { forceReload = true; } pianoUpdateSalutation(config, data, salutationField, forceReload); }, formName: 'salutation_form' }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'checkoutCustomEvent', event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent'); } const params = JSON.parse(event.params.params); if (event.eventName === 'purchaseCustom' && params.pmId == 'inbas') { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent: Invoice payments'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CEEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CEEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': 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event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## customEvent: ${event.eventName}`); } if (event.eventName === 'terms-accepted') { fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CETermsAccepted.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CETermsAccepted.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## customEvent triggered: fetch done'); } }).catch(err => console.log(err)); window.tp.offer.close(); } if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## customEvent triggered3: ${event.eventName}`); } }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'showOffer', offerParams => { if (window.digitalData && window.digitalData.component && typeof window.digitalData.component.push == 'function') { window.digitalData.component.push({ componentInfo: { componentID: 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id="page" class="nzz-page-transition"> <div><div data-resor="false" class="article"><section data-vars-danzz-article="" data-nzz-tid="article" data-nzz-referrer="articleLink" data-nzz-article="true" class="container container--article layout--regular"><div id="id-doc-1gpg3ffut0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="header" data-vars-danzz-first-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="headline"><div class="headline__highlight"><div class="headline__inner headline__inner--highlight"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--content teaser__flag--colored"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--default teaser__flag--default-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div></div> <h1 class="headline__title"> <span>Ominöse Signale</span></h1></div></div> <div class="headline__inner"><p class="headline__lead">Die «Goldilocks»-Hoffnung weicht der Einsicht, dass die Zinsen für längere Zeit auf höherem Niveau verharren müssen. Der Bondmarkt hat das realisiert – der von Spekulationsfieber getriebene Aktienmarkt noch nicht.</p> <div class="progressbar__wrapper"><div class="progressbar"><div class="progressbar__line"><div class="progressbar__line--fill" style="transform:translateX(-100%);"></div></div></div></div> <div class="headline__meta"> <div class="metainfo metainfo--content"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author"><a target="_blank" href="mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch">Mark Dittli ✉️</a></span>    <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date"><time datetime="2023-02-17T16:56:16.994Z"> 17.02.2023, 17.56 Uhr </time> </span></div> <div class="headline__meta-extra"><div class="actionbar actionbar--header"> <div class="popover__placeholder"><div></div> <div class="popover popover--header popover--bottom hidden"><div class="popover__container popover--header"><button class="button popover__close"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 14 14" class="button popover__close-icon svg-icon svg-fill" style="width:12px;height:12px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M1 1l12 12M1 13L13 1" _stroke="#000"/></svg></button> <div class="popover__content"><div class="popover__title">Neue Vorlese-Stimmen</div> <div class="popover__desc">Eine verbesserte Vorlesefunktion steht zur Verfügung. Probieren Sie es aus!</div></div></div></div></div>  <div class="actionbar__item actionbar__item--print"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 16" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:16px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M3.5.5v4h11v-4h-11z" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="1" d="M3.5 12.5H1.8a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3-1.3V5.8a1.3 1.3 0 011.3-1.3h14.4a1.3 1.3 0 011.3 1.3v5.4a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3 1.3h-1.7" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="2" d="M12.5 8.5h-7a2 2 0 00-2 2v3a2 2 0 002 2h7a2 2 0 002-2v-3a2 2 0 00-2-2z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Drucken</span></div></div> <div class="actionbar__item share" style="position:relative;"><div class="contextmenu-closed"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:18px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M10.48 1.18l6.795 6.584-6.794 6.353v-3.796l-.513.013c-2.052.051-3.758.423-5.238 1.2-1.471.773-2.684 1.927-3.785 3.49.565-2.854 1.539-5.138 3.005-6.82 1.467-1.683 3.456-2.8 6.116-3.263l.414-.072V1.181z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Teilen</span></div></div>  <div data-nzz-tid="contextmenu-overlay" class="overlay--container"> </div></div> </div></div></div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffut1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text">Die Aktienmärkte haben seit Anfang Jahr eine kräftige Rally erlebt. Der wachsende Optimismus der Marktteilnehmer basierte auf zwei Annahmen: Erstens sollten die kommenden Monate von beschleunigter Disinflation geprägt sein. Und zweitens soll eine Rezession ausbleiben.</p><div id="id-doc-4cecbcae" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="barrier" is-new-line-child="true"><div id="paywall_container"></div> <div class="disabled-overlay"><div class="disabled-overlay--show--text"><h3>Optimieren Sie Ihre Browsereinstellungen</h3> <p> Themarket.ch benötigt JavaScript für wichtige Funktionen. Ihr Browser oder Adblocker verhindert dies momentan. </p> <p>Bitte passen Sie die Einstellungen an.</p></div></div></div><div id="id-doc-c7b65386" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="advertisement" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das war das «Goldilocks»-Szenario. Nicht zu heiss, nicht zu kalt, genau richtig. An den Märkten begann zudem der Begriff der <em>Immaculate Disinflation</em>, der unbefleckten Disinflation, zu kursieren: Die Hoffnung, der Inflationsspuk würde sich doch als grösstenteils vorübergehender Natur erweisen und sich ohne weitere Schmerzen verflüchtigen. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Perfekt kam diese Konsens-Erwartungshaltung in der jüngsten <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/mister-market/fondsmanager-piu-allegro-ma-non-troppo-ld.8417">Fondsmanagerumfrage von Bank of America</a> zum Ausdruck. Die erwartete Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den USA ist deutlich gesunken...</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/d50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=1200&height=672&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:56.02%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="955" height="535" src="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/d50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=340&height=190&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=955,534,x0,y0" loading="eager" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/d50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=680&height=380&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=955,534,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/d50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=1360&height=760&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=955,534,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/d50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=340&height=190&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=955,534,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div>  </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">...während eine wachsende Zahl der professionellen Investoren sinkende Inflationsraten (dunkelblaue Kurve) sowie sinkende Leitzinsen (hellblau) erwartet:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png?width=1200&height=713&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:59.43%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="981" height="583" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png?width=680&height=405&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=980,583,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png?width=1360&height=810&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=980,583,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png?width=340&height=202&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=980,583,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div>  </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuu5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch nun häufen sich die Signale, dass das eine Wunschvorstellung war. Die in den vergangenen Tagen publizierten Inflationsdaten wurden für die Börsen zu einer kalten Dusche. Am Bondmarkt spielt sich eine signifikante Verschiebung der Erwartungen ab – eine Verschiebung, die die Aktienmärkte noch nicht so richtig begriffen zu haben scheinen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffuv0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Goldilocks hat das Gebäude verlassen.</p><div id="id-doc-1gn79frut0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-numeric" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><h2 class="enumeration__title">Die Themen im dieswöchigen «Big Picture»:</h2> <ol class="enumeration enumeration--numeric"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Klebrige Inflation</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Was der Bondmarkt sieht</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Ominöse Signale und der 0DTE-Wahnsinn</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Zwei Zukunftsszenarien</li></ol></div><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gpfcpsde0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>1. Klebrige Inflation</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv00" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Beginnen wir mit den Inflationsdaten dieser Woche. Gemessen am Konsumentenpreisindex (Consumer Price Index, CPI) ist die Inflation in den USA im Januar auf 6,4% gesunken. Die Kernrate, ohne Energie und Nahrungsmittel, ermässigte sich auf 5,6%. Damit setzte sich der im Spätsommer begonnene disinflationäre Trend fort, allerdings mit geringerem Tempo. Ökonomen hatten im Schnitt mit einem kräftigeren Rückgang auf 6,2 bzw. 5,5% gerechnet.</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg3sb1u0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="USA: «Peak Inflation» ist vorbei" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-ljOsC" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ljOsC/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv02" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Weiter bestätigte sich das Bild, dass sich die Inflation in den Güterpreisen weitgehend verflüchtigt hat; sie sank im Januar auf 1,4% (blaue Kurve). Eine böse Überraschung war dagegen der fortgesetzte Anstieg der Dienstleistungspreise (grün) auf eine Jahresrate von 7,2%, nach 7% im Dezember:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv03" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/f20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png?width=1200&height=521&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:43.38%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1752" height="760" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/f20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png?width=680&height=294&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1752,759,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/f20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png?width=1360&height=589&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1752,759,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/f20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png?width=340&height=147&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1752,759,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Quelle: Jefferies</span></div></div></figcaption> </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv04" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die von den Distriktnotenbanken von Cleveland und Atlanta ermittelten Barometer zeigen weiterhin, wie hartnäckig sich der Teuerungsdruck im System festgesetzt hat. Das «Trimmed Mean»-Barometer, das die grössten statistischen Ausreisser im Warenkorb ausblendet, ist zwar stabil geblieben (rote Kurve). Der Median-CPI ist dagegen abermals gestiegen und erreichte mit 7,1% den höchsten Wert seit Beginn der Datenreihe (blau). </p><div id="id-doc-1gpg3tfct0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Struktureller Inflationsdruck in den USA" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-cjujW" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cjujW/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv06" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein Schock für die Märkte war zudem der Index der Produzentenpreise (PPI), der am Donnerstag publiziert wurde. Mit einer Jahresrate von 6% blieb er deutlich über den Erwartungen der Ökonomen, die im Konsens mit einem Rückgang auf 5,4% gerechnet hatten. Auch der Kern-PPI verharrte mit 5,4% markant über den Erwartungen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv07" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein weiteres Puzzlestück lieferte der Index der Produzentenpreise in Deutschland, der mit einer Jahresrate von 17,8% zwar deutlich unter dem Vormonat (21,6%), aber auch klar über den Erwartungen (16,4%) lag.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dieses Bild passt nicht mit der Wunschvorstellung einer rasanten, «unbefleckten» Disinflation zusammen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv11" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Bondmarkt scheint das begriffen zu haben.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gpfcq85m0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>2. Was der Bondmarkt sieht</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv12" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Diese Woche ereignete sich am US-Bondmarkt etwas Historisches: Die Rendite sechsmonatiger Treasury Bills kletterte über 5%. Es war das erste Mal seit 2007, dass eine US-Staatsanleihe eine Rendite mit einer Fünf vor dem Komma aufwies.</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg3u59r0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Historisch: Treasury-Rendite erstmals seit 2007 über 5%" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-8H7YN" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8H7YN/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv14" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Zeit der niedrigen Zinsen, die das Umfeld an den Märkten seit der Finanzkrise von 2008 geprägt hatte, ist vorbei.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv15" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Zinsanstieg erstreckt sich über das gesamte Spektrum der Laufzeiten. Die Rendite zweijähriger und zehnjähriger Treasury Notes ist innerhalb von wenig mehr als zwei Wochen um mehr als 40 Basispunkte gestiegen:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg3uoiu0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Die Zinsen steigen wieder" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-WTph3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WTph3/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv17" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Rendite zweijähriger Treasuries hat beinahe wieder ihr bisheriges, im Sommer letzten Jahres markiertes Hoch erreicht.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv18" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Treiber dieser Entwicklung sind signifikant gestiegene Inflationserwartungen. Wie die marktbasierten Preise, die sogenannten <em>TIPS Breakeven Rates</em>, zeigen, sind die Inflationserwartungen für den Zeitraum der nächsten zwölf Monate auf gegenwärtig mehr als 3% gestiegen: </p><div id="id-doc-1gpg40sqn0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Deutlicher Anstieg in den kurzfristigen Inflationserwartungen" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-e5sll" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e5sll/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv20" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Noch Mitte Januar lag diese kurzfristige Inflationserwartung auf 1,6%, innerhalb eines Monats ist sie um satte 140 Basispunkte gestiegen. Auch die marktbasierten Inflationserwartungen für den Zeitraum der nächsten zwei, fünf und zehn Jahre sind markant gestiegen:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg417te0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Inflationserwartungen steigen über alle Laufzeiten" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-9ens1" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9ens1/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv22" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Bondmarkt signalisiert damit, dass er dem <em>«Higher for Longer»</em>-Szenario folgt: Die Inflation hält sich hartnäckiger als noch bis vor kurzem erwartet, die US-Notenbank wird die Leitzinsen auf ein höheres Niveau heben und für längere Zeit dort belassen müssen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv23" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Diese Verschiebung in der Erwartungshaltung ist für die Aktienmärkte von grosser Relevanz. Wenn «risikofreie» Treasuries bis zu 5% abwerfen, muss das in einem normalen Umfeld Druck auf die Aktienbewertungen ausüben.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv24" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein kurzes Rechenbeispiel dazu:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv25" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis des S&P 500 für das laufende Jahr beläuft sich gegenwärtig auf 19. Das bedeutet, die Gewinnrendite des Index beträgt 5,26% (100/19). Das ist nur unwesentlich mehr als die Rendite sechsmonatiger Treasury Bills. Als Referenz für den risikofreien Zins wird die Rendite zehnjähriger Treasury Notes verwendet, die derzeit um 3,9% notiert. Das bedeutet, die Aktienrisikoprämie beläuft sich gegenwärtig auf weniger als 1,5% (5,26 – 3,9), was dem niedrigsten Wert seit 2007 entspricht.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv26" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">So richtig deutlich ist dieses Signal aber noch nicht am Aktienmarkt angekommen.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gpfcqps40" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>3. Ominöse Signale und der 0DTE-Wahnsinn</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv27" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mit Stand vom 15. Februar hatte der S&P 500 seit Beginn des Jahres eine Avance von 7,3% erzielt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv28" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Raten Sie mal, für welchen Anteil an dieser Indexperformance die acht folgenden Aktien zusammen verantwortlich waren:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpfiehc50" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-regular" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"> <ul class="enumeration enumeration--regular"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Meta (Facebook)</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Apple</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Amazon</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Netflix</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Alphabet (Google)</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Microsoft</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Nvidia</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Tesla</li></ul></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv40" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Antwort: 60%. Diese acht Aktien allein waren für fast zwei Drittel oder 4,3 Prozentpunkte der bisherigen Jahresperformance des S&P 500 verantwortlich (rote Fläche in der Grafik). Die restlichen 492 Aktien im amerikanischen Leitindex steuerten zusammen bloss drei Prozentpunkte zur Indexperformance bei (blaue Fläche), wie der Marktbeobachter Jim Bianco vorrechnet:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv41" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png?width=1200&height=915&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:76.25%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1204" height="918" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png?width=680&height=519&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1203,918,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png?width=1360&height=1038&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1203,918,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png?width=340&height=260&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1203,918,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Quelle: Bianco Research</span></div></div></figcaption> </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv50" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es waren also primär die Schwergewichte aus den Wachstumssektoren Technologie (u.a. Apple, Nvidia), Kommunikationsdienste (Alphabet, Meta) und zyklischer Konsum (Amazon, Tesla), die die Rally angeführt haben. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv51" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Pikante daran: Das sind die Aktien, die in einem Umfeld niedriger Zinsen florieren und die im vergangenen Jahr stark unter dem Anstieg der Zinsen gelitten haben.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv52" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch wenn sich der Zinsanstieg nun wieder festigt und sich nicht bloss als Anomalie der vergangenen zwei Wochen erweist, dann sind Tesla, Meta & Co. abermals einsturzgefährdet.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv53" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Sehr lesenswerte Gedanken dazu teilt der legendäre Hedge-Fund-Manager Jim Chanos <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/interview/jim-chanos-das-spekulationsfieber-ist-noch-nicht-vorbei-ld.8429">in diesem Interview</a>:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv54" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><em>«Die Stimmung scheint mir immer noch ziemlich übermütig zu sein. Gewisse spekulative Aktien haben sich im Januar erneut verdoppelt, Privatanleger machen an der New Yorker Börse einen so hohen Anteil am Gesamtvolumen aus wie nie, und das Volumen an Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit von null Tagen – die man grundsätzlich als Gambling bezeichnen kann – hat kürzlich einen neuen Rekordwert erreicht. Bei Tesla werden derzeit jeden Tag mehr Optionen gehandelt als beim S&P 500 und bei Apple.»</em></p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv55" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Nicht nur die fulminanten Kursgewinne der alten «FANGMAN-Darlings» sollte skeptisch stimmen. Auch diverse notorische <em>Meme Stocks</em>, Zockertitel wie Carvana, GameStop oder Bed Bath & Beyond, haben sich im Januar und Februar zeitweise verdoppelt. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv56" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Eine wichtige Rolle dabei scheint die unter amerikanischen Retail-Anlegern weit verbreitete Spekulation mit Call-Optionen zu spielen. Eine relativ neue Mode ist die Spekulation mit Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit von weniger als 24 Stunden. Diese <em>Zero Days to Expiration Options</em>, im Jargon 0DTE genannt, machen gemäss Schätzungen bereits mehr als 40% des gesamten Options-Handelsvolumens an der New Yorker Börse aus (rote Fläche):</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv57" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png?width=1200&height=801&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:66.78%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="596" height="398" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png?width=680&height=453&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=596,398,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png?width=1360&height=907&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=596,398,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png?width=340&height=227&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=596,398,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Quelle: Nomura via @SoberLook</span></div></div></figcaption> </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv58" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein wichtiger Nebeneffekt dieser Entwicklung: Die Preisveränderungen dieser ultrakurzfristigen Optionen finden für die Berechnung des breit beachteten Volatilitätsindex Vix keine Beachtung. Der Vix berücksichtigt bloss Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit zwischen 23 und 37 Tagen. Das bedeutet, die vom Vix ausgewiesene implizierte Volatilität des S&P 500 wird möglicherweise zu tief dargestellt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv60" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Diese Zockerei erinnert stark an die <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/grafik-der-woche/charts-im-fokus-stranger-things-teil-2-ld.5363"><em>Meme Mania</em> von 2021</a>. Heute wie damals setzen die Spekulanten dabei auf den Effekt des sogenannten <em>Gamma Squeeze</em>. Um ihr Risiko abzusichern, sind die Gegenparteien dieser Optionen gezwungen, laufend die dem Call zugrunde liegenden Aktien (z.B. Tesla) zu kaufen. Damit treiben sie jedoch deren Kurs in die Höhe, und je näher der Optionsverfall rückt, desto mehr müssen sie nachkaufen – was zu einer sich selbst verstärkenden Spirale führt und die Preise noch weiter in die Höhe treibt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv61" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Ausmass des Spekulationsfiebers zeigt sich in den an den US-Börsen gehandelten Volumen mit Call-Optionen. Vergangene Woche wurde der höchste je verzeichnete Wert erreicht. Eindrücklich auch zu sehen, wie die Effekte der Pandemie – Home Office und Stimulusschecks der Regierung – die Optionshandelsvolumen ab Ende 2020 offenbar auf ein permanent höheres Niveau gehievt haben:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg446990" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Das Spekulationsfieber wütet" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-SA50b" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SA50b/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv63" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Eine Börsenrally, die auf derartigem Spekulationsfieber beruht, ist brandgefährlich. Es wird nicht gut enden. Und vor allem nicht, wenn die Zinsen weiter steigen und der Aktienmarkt realisiert, was <em>Higher for Longer</em> für das Bewertungsgefüge bedeutet.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv64" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wohlgemerkt: Höhere Zinsen sind nicht grundsätzlich schlecht für die Börsen. Die Aktien von Banken und Versicherungen beispielsweise mögen es, wenn die Zinsen steigen. Europäische Banken haben angesichts der auch in Europa steigenden Zinsen immer noch viel aufzuholen, wie Michael Hartnett, Chefstratege von Bank of America, zeigt:</p><figure id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv65" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png?width=1200&height=1080&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:90%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="710" height="639" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png?width=680&height=613&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=710,639,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png?width=1360&height=1225&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=710,639,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/17/a3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png?width=340&height=306&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=710,639,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div>  </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv66" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch günstig bewertete Value-Aktien aus Sektoren wie Grundstoffe (u.a. Chemie), Energie oder Industrie brauchen steigende Zinsen nicht zu befürchten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv67" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Aber steigende Zinsen sind Gift für hoch bewertete Wachstumsaktien. Wir teilen daher die <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/interview/rajiv-jain-sie-sind-bullish-auf-china-dann-kaufen-sie-brasilien-ld.8398">hier geäusserte Ansicht des Investors Rajiv Jain</a>, sich weiterhin von den meisten dieser Titel fernzuhalten.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1gpfcr46l0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>4. Zwei Zukunftsszenarien</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv68" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Im Grunde geht es bei allen derzeitigen Überlegungen zu den Perspektiven an den Finanzmärkten um eine Frage:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv69" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Kehren wir zum Umfeld zurück, das in den Jahren vor der Pandemie geherrscht hatte, oder wird sich im Verlauf der kommenden Jahre ein neues, grundlegend verändertes Umfeld einstellen?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv610" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir Menschen unterliegen einem <em>Recency Bias</em>, wir tendieren dazu, das Erlebte in die Zukunft zu extrapolieren. Deshalb erachten wir das Umfeld, das vor dem Schock der Pandemie geherrscht hatte, als normal. Dieses Umfeld war während rund drei Jahrzehnten im Wesentlichen von folgenden Attributen geprägt:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv611" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><strong>Erstens,</strong> Inflation war nie ein Thema (ausser in Schwellenländern).</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv612" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><strong>Zweitens,</strong> die Zinsen folgten einem strukturell sinkenden Trend.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv70" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction"><strong>Drittens,</strong> die US-Notenbank war gutmütig zu Wallstreet und sprang immer rettend ein, wenn die Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten zu heftig wurden. Der <em>Fed Put</em> war eine implizite Stütze, auf die Investoren fest zählen konnten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv71" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dieses Umfeld der stetig sinkenden Zinsen verlieh den Bewertungen aller Anlageklassen einen lang anhaltenden Rückenwind, wie es der Value-Investor <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/meinung/sea-change-ld.8114">Howard Marks hier sehr treffend</a> beschreibt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv72" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Selbstverständlich: Es ist möglich, dass es eine Rückkehr zu diesem Umfeld geben wird.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv73" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Vielleicht aber auch nicht. Vielleicht stehen wir auch im Übergang zu einem grundlegend anderen Umfeld.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv74" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir hatten diese Woche die Gelegenheit, über dieses Thema mit William White zu diskutieren. Der ehemalige Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) legte die Argumente dar, weshalb die kommenden Jahre von einem deutlich höheren, strukturellen Inflationsdruck geprägt sein könnten.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv75" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">White hat <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/meinung/der-uebergang-von-einer-aera-des-ueberflusses-zu-einer-aera-des-mangels-ld.8078">in diesem Gastbeitrag für The Market</a> Ende Dezember geschrieben, die Weltwirtschaft befinde sich im Übergang von einer Ära des Überflusses zu einer Ära der Knappheiten. Wir verzichten darauf, seine Argumente an dieser Stelle nochmals im Detail aufzuführen (das umfassende Interview mit Bill White werden wir in der kommenden Woche auf <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/">themarket.ch</a> publizieren).</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv76" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Im Kern skizziert White eine Welt, in der ein strukturell höherer Inflationsdruck herrscht und in der die Zinsen – sowohl auf realer als auch auf nominaler Basis – auf einem höheren Niveau liegen werden. Das würde bedeuten, dass sich Investoren vom Gedanken eines Umfeldes, in dem Inflation kein Thema war und die Zinsen stetig sanken, verabschieden müssen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv77" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Für dieses Szenario spricht auch die historische Erfahrung der Nachkriegszeit. In dieser Periode kam es in den USA zu zwei Inflationsschüben, die punkto Tragweite mit der gegenwärtigen Erfahrung vergleichbar sind: Ende der Vierziger- und in den Siebzigerjahren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv78" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">So sah der Verlauf der Inflation in den Vierzigerjahren aus:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg4510t0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Inflation USA, 1940 – 1955" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-utT6F" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/utT6F/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv710" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Und so in den Siebzigern:</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg45k6j0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Inflation USA, 1965 – 1985" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OzJow" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OzJow/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv712" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In beiden Fällen kam es zu einer Art Jojo-Effekt von abwechselnden Inflations- und Disinflationsschüben. Aber weil sich der Teuerungsdruck in beiden Fällen strukturell im System festgesetzt hatte, beschleunigte sich die Inflation jeweils sofort wieder, sobald die Wirtschaft nach einem rezessiven Rückschlag zu einer Erholung ansetzte.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv80" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir können nicht prognostizieren, welches Szenario eintreten wird. Aber müssten wir wetten, würden wir auf das Szenario «höhere Inflation und höhere Zinsen» setzen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv81" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Zum Schluss noch ein Hinweis in eigener Sache: Nächste Woche fällt das «Big Picture» wegen Ferienabwesenheit des Autors ausnahmsweise aus. Am 3. März erscheint die nächste Ausgabe.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv82" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ab März führen wir auch unsere Live-Webinare wieder im gewohnten Zweiwochenrhythmus durch. Das nächste «The Big Picture Live»-Webinar findet am Montag, 6. März, um 16 Uhr statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market können sich <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/video/video-webinare-von-the-market-ld.3255">unter diesem Link</a> für die Teilnahme registrieren.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv83" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" data-vars-danzz-last-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Video-Aufzeichnungen aller früheren Webinare finden Sie <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/video/video-webinare-von-the-market-ld.3255">hier</a>.</p><div id="id-doc-1gpg3ffv87" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="sharebox" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"><div class="sharebox"><div class="sharebox__line"></div> <ul class="sharebox__content"><li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--bookmark"></li> <li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--print"><a href="" aria-current="page" title="Drucken" class="sharebox__link nuxt-link-exact-active 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class="pageelement__inner"> <div class="widget__row widget__row--noBorder"><div data-team-more-to-subject class="widget--articlelist-a"><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8429" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/interview/jim-chanos-das-spekulationsfieber-ist-noch-nicht-vorbei-ld.8429" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="«Die Geldpolitik wird für lange Zeit nicht mehr so extrem expansiv sein wie in den vergangenen Jahren»: Jim Chanos." src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/16/340478e6-28da-4d06-bc33-7fb09c67fcb8.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1764,1323,x406,y291 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/16/340478e6-28da-4d06-bc33-7fb09c67fcb8.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1764,1323,x406,y291 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/16/340478e6-28da-4d06-bc33-7fb09c67fcb8.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1764,1323,x406,y291 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/16/340478e6-28da-4d06-bc33-7fb09c67fcb8.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1764,1323,x406,y291 240w" width="1764" height="1323" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/interview/jim-chanos-das-spekulationsfieber-ist-noch-nicht-vorbei-ld.8429" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="1" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Interview </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--0">  <span class="teaser__title-name">«Das Spekulationsfieber ist noch nicht vorbei»</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Der Short-Seller Jim Chanos hat nie einen so spekulativen Markt erlebt wie 2020 und 2021. Trotz der Korrektur bleibe die Börse anfällig für Enttäuschungen. Er erklärt, wie Unternehmen mit ihrer Buchführung tricksen und warum Tesla noch weiter fallen wird.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Gregor Mast ✉</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">17.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8398" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/interview/rajiv-jain-sie-sind-bullish-auf-china-dann-kaufen-sie-brasilien-ld.8398" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="«In Sachen Energie herrscht in Europa eine gefährliche Selbstgefälligkeit»: Rajiv Jain. (Bild: GQG Partners)" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2021/12/16/2e4e15af-535d-4159-b1df-abcbe756ca40.png?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1917,1438,x421,y355 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2021/12/16/2e4e15af-535d-4159-b1df-abcbe756ca40.png?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1917,1438,x421,y355 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2021/12/16/2e4e15af-535d-4159-b1df-abcbe756ca40.png?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1917,1438,x421,y355 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2021/12/16/2e4e15af-535d-4159-b1df-abcbe756ca40.png?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1917,1438,x421,y355 240w" width="1917" height="1438" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/interview/rajiv-jain-sie-sind-bullish-auf-china-dann-kaufen-sie-brasilien-ld.8398" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="2" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Interview </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--1">  <span class="teaser__title-name">«Sie sind bullish für China? Dann kaufen Sie Brasilien»</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Rajiv Jain, Gründer und Chief Investment Officer der Fondsboutique GQG Partners, spricht im Interview über seine besten Anlageideen und sagt, weshalb die Bewertungskorrektur im Tech-Sektor noch nicht vorbei ist.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">10.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8078" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--opinion teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-opinion"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/meinung/der-uebergang-von-einer-aera-des-ueberflusses-zu-einer-aera-des-mangels-ld.8078" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:100%;"><img alt="The Great Demographic Reversal, Springer, 2020." src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/12/20/edfe3dba-7cd2-4618-a5c2-2f0a599c5418.jpeg?width=120&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1516,1516,x681,y314 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/12/20/edfe3dba-7cd2-4618-a5c2-2f0a599c5418.jpeg?width=240&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1516,1516,x681,y314 240w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/12/20/edfe3dba-7cd2-4618-a5c2-2f0a599c5418.jpeg?width=80&height=80&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1516,1516,x681,y314 80w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/12/20/edfe3dba-7cd2-4618-a5c2-2f0a599c5418.jpeg?width=160&height=160&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1516,1516,x681,y314 160w" width="1516" height="1516" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/meinung/der-uebergang-von-einer-aera-des-ueberflusses-zu-einer-aera-des-mangels-ld.8078" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="3" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-opinion"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Meinung </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--opinion teaser__title--2">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Der Übergang von einer «Ära des Überflusses» zu einer «Ära des Mangels»</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--opinion">Eine Reihe von Angebotsschocks könnte dazu führen, dass sich die Inflation auf einem höheren Plateau einpendelt. Für die Zinsen könnte es daher «higher for longer» heissen.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--opinion"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--opinion"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">William R. White</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">20.12.2022</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--opinion ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8407" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-warten-auf-neue-impulse-ld.8407" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Die Märkte warten auf neue Impulse" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/10/07b33ed6-d186-4bb0-a74b-9e6e9836b0d8.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1396,1047,x146,y302 240w" width="1396" height="1047" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-finanzmaerkte-warten-auf-neue-impulse-ld.8407" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="4" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--3">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Die Märkte warten auf neue Impulse</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Investoren richten sich in Bezug auf die Geldpolitik des Fed auf ein «Higher for longer» ein. Die Bondrenditen steigen wieder. Aus China sind noch kaum Wachstumssignale zu sehen.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">10.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_8376" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/its-the-liquidity-stupid-ld.8376" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="It's the Liquidity, Stupid!" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/03/0831453a-cae3-41a5-855c-fda6768dad32.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3280,2460,x0,y1846 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/03/0831453a-cae3-41a5-855c-fda6768dad32.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3280,2460,x0,y1846 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/03/0831453a-cae3-41a5-855c-fda6768dad32.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3280,2460,x0,y1846 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2023/02/03/0831453a-cae3-41a5-855c-fda6768dad32.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3280,2460,x0,y1846 240w" width="3280" height="2460" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/its-the-liquidity-stupid-ld.8376" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="5" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--4">  <span class="teaser__title-name">It's the Liquidity, Stupid!</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Wachsende Risikofreude lässt die Kurse an den Aktienmärkten steigen. Aussagen von Fed-Chef Powell werden als Einladung verstanden, die Party fortzusetzen. Weltweit ist eine Zunahme der Liquidität zu beobachten. Was steht dahinter?</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">03.02.2023</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article></div></div></div></section></section> <div class="cve articlepromobox"></div>   </div></div></div> <div id="footer" class="footer"> <div class="footer__section"><h2 class="footer__section--title"> </h2> <ul class="footer__section--list"><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://abo.themarket.ch/kontakt/" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Abo-Service </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/agb" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> AGB/Datenschutz </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/impressum" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Impressum </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://themarket.ch/feedback" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Feedback </a></li></ul></div> <div class="footer__print"> Copyright © The Market Media AG. 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Market, Schweiz";bZ.url=be;bZ.logo={"@type":"ImageObject",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Flogo.png",width:413,height:60};bZ.contactPoint=[{"@type":"ContactPoint",telephone:"+41-44-2581000",contactType:"customer service"}];bZ.sameAs=["https:\u002F\u002Fwww.facebook.com\u002FTheMarketCH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.twitter.com\u002FTheMarket_CH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fcompany\u002Fthe-market-ch\u002F"];cb.title="Suche The Market, Schweiz, https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fsuche";cb.href="\u002Fsuche";cf.standard={Tags:[_,"classification=default","language=de-CH","the-big-picture","product=themarket","doctype=article","pagetype=article","ldid=ld.8477","channel=The Big Picture"],ContentCreated:aa,ContentAuthor:A,ContentSection:l,ContentIsNative:d};cf.custom={product:bd,docType:v,pageType:v,layout:m,ldId:$,channel:l,heading:G,language:w};return {layout:"default",data:[{data:{content:[{identifier:bl,id:"doc-1gpg3ffut0",content:{title:G,lead:af,author:"\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch\"\u003EMark Dittli ✉️\u003C\u002Fa\u003E"},component:"header",prevElement:a,nextElement:c,firstContentElement:d},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffut1",content:{text:"Die Aktienmärkte haben seit Anfang Jahr eine kräftige Rally erlebt. Der wachsende Optimismus der Marktteilnehmer basierte auf zwei Annahmen: Erstens sollten die kommenden Monate von beschleunigter Disinflation geprägt sein. Und zweitens soll eine Rezession ausbleiben."},component:e,prevElement:bl,nextElement:aX},{id:"doc-4cecbcae",identifier:aX,prevElement:c,nextElement:aY},{id:"doc-c7b65386",identifier:aY,paidContent:d,prevElement:aX,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffuu0",content:{text:"Das war das «Goldilocks»-Szenario. Nicht zu heiss, nicht zu kalt, genau richtig. An den Märkten begann zudem der Begriff der \u003Cem\u003EImmaculate Disinflation\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, der unbefleckten Disinflation, zu kursieren: Die Hoffnung, der Inflationsspuk würde sich doch als grösstenteils vorübergehender Natur erweisen und sich ohne weitere Schmerzen verflüchtigen. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:aY,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffuu1",content:{text:"Perfekt kam diese Konsens-Erwartungshaltung in der jüngsten \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fmister-market\u002Ffondsmanager-piu-allegro-ma-non-troppo-ld.8417\"\u003EFondsmanagerumfrage von Bank of America\u003C\u002Fa\u003E zum Ausdruck. Die erwartete Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den USA ist deutlich gesunken..."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bm,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fd50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fd50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"td0VG-MY7UiE",width:955,height:535,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fd50d3330-0dc4-43e3-af94-087387c457d1.png"}},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffuu3",content:{text:"...während eine wachsende Zahl der professionellen Investoren sinkende Inflationsraten (dunkelblaue Kurve) sowie sinkende Leitzinsen (hellblau) erwartet:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bn,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"jtXRHxI2MSMq",width:981,height:583,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F45d2be24-e095-434b-8a10-0be8b22db658.png"}},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffuu5",content:{text:"Doch nun häufen sich die Signale, dass das eine Wunschvorstellung war. Die in den vergangenen Tagen publizierten Inflationsdaten wurden für die Börsen zu einer kalten Dusche. Am Bondmarkt spielt sich eine signifikante Verschiebung der Erwartungen ab – eine Verschiebung, die die Aktienmärkte noch nicht so richtig begriffen zu haben scheinen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffuv0",content:{text:"Goldilocks hat das Gebäude verlassen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:aZ},{identifier:aZ,id:"doc-1gn79frut0",content:{title:"Die Themen im dieswöchigen «Big Picture»:"},containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gn79frut1",content:{text:"Klebrige Inflation"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gn79h8ug0",content:{text:"Was der Bondmarkt sieht"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfd5avm0",content:{text:"Ominöse Signale und der 0DTE-Wahnsinn"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfcpb1c0",content:{text:"Zwei Zukunftsszenarien"},component:p}]},component:"enumeration-numeric",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:q},{identifier:q,id:"doc-1gpfcpsde0",content:{title:"1. Klebrige Inflation",id:"subtitle-1-klebrige-inflation"},component:az,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:aZ,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv00",content:{text:"Beginnen wir mit den Inflationsdaten dieser Woche. Gemessen am Konsumentenpreisindex (Consumer Price Index, CPI) ist die Inflation in den USA im Januar auf 6,4% gesunken. Die Kernrate, ohne Energie und Nahrungsmittel, ermässigte sich auf 5,6%. Damit setzte sich der im Spätsommer begonnene disinflationäre Trend fort, allerdings mit geringerem Tempo. Ökonomen hatten im Schnitt mit einem kräftigeren Rückgang auf 6,2 bzw. 5,5% gerechnet."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:q,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg3sb1u0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"USA: «Peak Inflation» ist vorbei\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-ljOsC\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FljOsC\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv02",content:{text:"Weiter bestätigte sich das Bild, dass sich die Inflation in den Güterpreisen weitgehend verflüchtigt hat; sie sank im Januar auf 1,4% (blaue Kurve). Eine böse Überraschung war dagegen der fortgesetzte Anstieg der Dienstleistungspreise (grün) auf eine Jahresrate von 7,2%, nach 7% im Dezember:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bo,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Ff20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Ff20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"U3SCfZRKz4Iq",width:1752,height:760,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Ff20fa783-b7f3-4515-9c2a-2fe46445aca9.png"},author:I},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv04",content:{text:"Die von den Distriktnotenbanken von Cleveland und Atlanta ermittelten Barometer zeigen weiterhin, wie hartnäckig sich der Teuerungsdruck im System festgesetzt hat. Das «Trimmed Mean»-Barometer, das die grössten statistischen Ausreisser im Warenkorb ausblendet, ist zwar stabil geblieben (rote Kurve). Der Median-CPI ist dagegen abermals gestiegen und erreichte mit 7,1% den höchsten Wert seit Beginn der Datenreihe (blau). "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg3tfct0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Struktureller Inflationsdruck in den USA\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-cjujW\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FcjujW\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv06",content:{text:"Ein Schock für die Märkte war zudem der Index der Produzentenpreise (PPI), der am Donnerstag publiziert wurde. Mit einer Jahresrate von 6% blieb er deutlich über den Erwartungen der Ökonomen, die im Konsens mit einem Rückgang auf 5,4% gerechnet hatten. Auch der Kern-PPI verharrte mit 5,4% markant über den Erwartungen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv07",content:{text:"Ein weiteres Puzzlestück lieferte der Index der Produzentenpreise in Deutschland, der mit einer Jahresrate von 17,8% zwar deutlich unter dem Vormonat (21,6%), aber auch klar über den Erwartungen (16,4%) lag."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv10",content:{text:"Dieses Bild passt nicht mit der Wunschvorstellung einer rasanten, «unbefleckten» Disinflation zusammen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv11",content:{text:"Der Bondmarkt scheint das begriffen zu haben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:q},{identifier:q,id:"doc-1gpfcq85m0",content:{title:"2. Was der Bondmarkt sieht",id:"subtitle-2-was-der-bondmarkt-sieht"},component:az,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv12",content:{text:"Diese Woche ereignete sich am US-Bondmarkt etwas Historisches: Die Rendite sechsmonatiger Treasury Bills kletterte über 5%. Es war das erste Mal seit 2007, dass eine US-Staatsanleihe eine Rendite mit einer Fünf vor dem Komma aufwies."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:q,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg3u59r0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Historisch: Treasury-Rendite erstmals seit 2007 über 5%\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-8H7YN\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002F8H7YN\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv14",content:{text:"Die Zeit der niedrigen Zinsen, die das Umfeld an den Märkten seit der Finanzkrise von 2008 geprägt hatte, ist vorbei."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv15",content:{text:"Der Zinsanstieg erstreckt sich über das gesamte Spektrum der Laufzeiten. Die Rendite zweijähriger und zehnjähriger Treasury Notes ist innerhalb von wenig mehr als zwei Wochen um mehr als 40 Basispunkte gestiegen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg3uoiu0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Die Zinsen steigen wieder\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-WTph3\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FWTph3\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv17",content:{text:"Die Rendite zweijähriger Treasuries hat beinahe wieder ihr bisheriges, im Sommer letzten Jahres markiertes Hoch erreicht."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv18",content:{text:"Treiber dieser Entwicklung sind signifikant gestiegene Inflationserwartungen. Wie die marktbasierten Preise, die sogenannten \u003Cem\u003ETIPS Breakeven Rates\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, zeigen, sind die Inflationserwartungen für den Zeitraum der nächsten zwölf Monate auf gegenwärtig mehr als 3% gestiegen: "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg40sqn0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Deutlicher Anstieg in den kurzfristigen Inflationserwartungen\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-e5sll\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002Fe5sll\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}(); \u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv20",content:{text:"Noch Mitte Januar lag diese kurzfristige Inflationserwartung auf 1,6%, innerhalb eines Monats ist sie um satte 140 Basispunkte gestiegen. Auch die marktbasierten Inflationserwartungen für den Zeitraum der nächsten zwei, fünf und zehn Jahre sind markant gestiegen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg417te0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Inflationserwartungen steigen über alle Laufzeiten\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-9ens1\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002F9ens1\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv22",content:{text:"Der Bondmarkt signalisiert damit, dass er dem \u003Cem\u003E«Higher for Longer»\u003C\u002Fem\u003E-Szenario folgt: Die Inflation hält sich hartnäckiger als noch bis vor kurzem erwartet, die US-Notenbank wird die Leitzinsen auf ein höheres Niveau heben und für längere Zeit dort belassen müssen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv23",content:{text:"Diese Verschiebung in der Erwartungshaltung ist für die Aktienmärkte von grosser Relevanz. Wenn «risikofreie» Treasuries bis zu 5% abwerfen, muss das in einem normalen Umfeld Druck auf die Aktienbewertungen ausüben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv24",content:{text:"Ein kurzes Rechenbeispiel dazu:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv25",content:{text:"Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis des S&P 500 für das laufende Jahr beläuft sich gegenwärtig auf 19. Das bedeutet, die Gewinnrendite des Index beträgt 5,26% (100\u002F19). Das ist nur unwesentlich mehr als die Rendite sechsmonatiger Treasury Bills. Als Referenz für den risikofreien Zins wird die Rendite zehnjähriger Treasury Notes verwendet, die derzeit um 3,9% notiert. Das bedeutet, die Aktienrisikoprämie beläuft sich gegenwärtig auf weniger als 1,5% (5,26 – 3,9), was dem niedrigsten Wert seit 2007 entspricht."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv26",content:{text:"So richtig deutlich ist dieses Signal aber noch nicht am Aktienmarkt angekommen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:q},{identifier:q,id:"doc-1gpfcqps40",content:{title:"3. Ominöse Signale und der 0DTE-Wahnsinn",id:"subtitle-3-omin-se-signale-und-der-0dte-wahnsinn"},component:az,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv27",content:{text:"Mit Stand vom 15. Februar hatte der S&P 500 seit Beginn des Jahres eine Avance von 7,3% erzielt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:q,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv28",content:{text:"Raten Sie mal, für welchen Anteil an dieser Indexperformance die acht folgenden Aktien zusammen verantwortlich waren:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:a_},{identifier:a_,id:"doc-1gpfiehc50",containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfiepb20",content:{text:"Meta (Facebook)"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfiehc51",content:{text:"Apple"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfielau0",content:{text:"Amazon"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfiemkc0",content:{text:"Netflix"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfif1gt0",content:{text:"Alphabet (Google)"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfif6o30",content:{text:"Microsoft"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfif92l0",content:{text:"Nvidia"},component:p},{identifier:o,id:"doc-1gpfifbin0",content:{text:"Tesla"},component:p}]},component:"enumeration-regular",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv40",content:{text:"Die Antwort: 60%. Diese acht Aktien allein waren für fast zwei Drittel oder 4,3 Prozentpunkte der bisherigen Jahresperformance des S&P 500 verantwortlich (rote Fläche in der Grafik). Die restlichen 492 Aktien im amerikanischen Leitindex steuerten zusammen bloss drei Prozentpunkte zur Indexperformance bei (blaue Fläche), wie der Marktbeobachter Jim Bianco vorrechnet:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:a_,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bp,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"XPUaIcS6FAP4",width:1204,height:918,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002F6c53479f-281e-4f4e-b21b-8553dc360ab4.png"},author:ag},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv50",content:{text:"Es waren also primär die Schwergewichte aus den Wachstumssektoren Technologie (u.a. Apple, Nvidia), Kommunikationsdienste (Alphabet, Meta) und zyklischer Konsum (Amazon, Tesla), die die Rally angeführt haben. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv51",content:{text:"Das Pikante daran: Das sind die Aktien, die in einem Umfeld niedriger Zinsen florieren und die im vergangenen Jahr stark unter dem Anstieg der Zinsen gelitten haben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv52",content:{text:"Doch wenn sich der Zinsanstieg nun wieder festigt und sich nicht bloss als Anomalie der vergangenen zwei Wochen erweist, dann sind Tesla, Meta & Co. abermals einsturzgefährdet."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv53",content:{text:"Sehr lesenswerte Gedanken dazu teilt der legendäre Hedge-Fund-Manager Jim Chanos \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Finterview\u002Fjim-chanos-das-spekulationsfieber-ist-noch-nicht-vorbei-ld.8429\"\u003Ein diesem Interview\u003C\u002Fa\u003E:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv54",content:{text:"\u003Cem\u003E«Die Stimmung scheint mir immer noch ziemlich übermütig zu sein. Gewisse spekulative Aktien haben sich im Januar erneut verdoppelt, Privatanleger machen an der New Yorker Börse einen so hohen Anteil am Gesamtvolumen aus wie nie, und das Volumen an Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit von null Tagen – die man grundsätzlich als Gambling bezeichnen kann – hat kürzlich einen neuen Rekordwert erreicht. Bei Tesla werden derzeit jeden Tag mehr Optionen gehandelt als beim S&P 500 und bei Apple.»\u003C\u002Fem\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv55",content:{text:"Nicht nur die fulminanten Kursgewinne der alten «FANGMAN-Darlings» sollte skeptisch stimmen. Auch diverse notorische \u003Cem\u003EMeme Stocks\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, Zockertitel wie Carvana, GameStop oder Bed Bath & Beyond, haben sich im Januar und Februar zeitweise verdoppelt. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv56",content:{text:"Eine wichtige Rolle dabei scheint die unter amerikanischen Retail-Anlegern weit verbreitete Spekulation mit Call-Optionen zu spielen. Eine relativ neue Mode ist die Spekulation mit Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit von weniger als 24 Stunden. Diese \u003Cem\u003EZero Days to Expiration Options\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, im Jargon 0DTE genannt, machen gemäss Schätzungen bereits mehr als 40% des gesamten Options-Handelsvolumens an der New Yorker Börse aus (rote Fläche):"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bq,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"YJBKPNCxEFDG",width:596,height:398,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3d30886-cae6-43b7-8dfd-083589460455.png"},author:br},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv58",content:{text:"Ein wichtiger Nebeneffekt dieser Entwicklung: Die Preisveränderungen dieser ultrakurzfristigen Optionen finden für die Berechnung des breit beachteten Volatilitätsindex Vix keine Beachtung. Der Vix berücksichtigt bloss Optionen mit einer Restlaufzeit zwischen 23 und 37 Tagen. Das bedeutet, die vom Vix ausgewiesene implizierte Volatilität des S&P 500 wird möglicherweise zu tief dargestellt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv60",content:{text:"Diese Zockerei erinnert stark an die \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fgrafik-der-woche\u002Fcharts-im-fokus-stranger-things-teil-2-ld.5363\"\u003E\u003Cem\u003EMeme Mania\u003C\u002Fem\u003E von 2021\u003C\u002Fa\u003E. Heute wie damals setzen die Spekulanten dabei auf den Effekt des sogenannten \u003Cem\u003EGamma Squeeze\u003C\u002Fem\u003E. Um ihr Risiko abzusichern, sind die Gegenparteien dieser Optionen gezwungen, laufend die dem Call zugrunde liegenden Aktien (z.B. Tesla) zu kaufen. Damit treiben sie jedoch deren Kurs in die Höhe, und je näher der Optionsverfall rückt, desto mehr müssen sie nachkaufen – was zu einer sich selbst verstärkenden Spirale führt und die Preise noch weiter in die Höhe treibt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv61",content:{text:"Das Ausmass des Spekulationsfiebers zeigt sich in den an den US-Börsen gehandelten Volumen mit Call-Optionen. Vergangene Woche wurde der höchste je verzeichnete Wert erreicht. Eindrücklich auch zu sehen, wie die Effekte der Pandemie – Home Office und Stimulusschecks der Regierung – die Optionshandelsvolumen ab Ende 2020 offenbar auf ein permanent höheres Niveau gehievt haben:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg446990",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Das Spekulationsfieber wütet\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-SA50b\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FSA50b\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv63",content:{text:"Eine Börsenrally, die auf derartigem Spekulationsfieber beruht, ist brandgefährlich. Es wird nicht gut enden. Und vor allem nicht, wenn die Zinsen weiter steigen und der Aktienmarkt realisiert, was \u003Cem\u003EHigher for Longer\u003C\u002Fem\u003E für das Bewertungsgefüge bedeutet."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv64",content:{text:"Wohlgemerkt: Höhere Zinsen sind nicht grundsätzlich schlecht für die Börsen. Die Aktien von Banken und Versicherungen beispielsweise mögen es, wenn die Zinsen steigen. Europäische Banken haben angesichts der auch in Europa steigenden Zinsen immer noch viel aufzuholen, wie Michael Hartnett, Chefstratege von Bank of America, zeigt:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:i},{identifier:i,id:bs,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"MMn-oGF-CIKT",width:710,height:639,mimeType:D,imageService:s,key:"2023\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fa3498ee5-2e15-4731-84ec-e5b27156a054.png"}},component:H,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv66",content:{text:"Auch günstig bewertete Value-Aktien aus Sektoren wie Grundstoffe (u.a. Chemie), Energie oder Industrie brauchen steigende Zinsen nicht zu befürchten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:i,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv67",content:{text:"Aber steigende Zinsen sind Gift für hoch bewertete Wachstumsaktien. Wir teilen daher die \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Finterview\u002Frajiv-jain-sie-sind-bullish-auf-china-dann-kaufen-sie-brasilien-ld.8398\"\u003Ehier geäusserte Ansicht des Investors Rajiv Jain\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, sich weiterhin von den meisten dieser Titel fernzuhalten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:q},{identifier:q,id:"doc-1gpfcr46l0",content:{title:"4. Zwei Zukunftsszenarien",id:"subtitle-4-zwei-zukunftsszenarien"},component:az,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv68",content:{text:"Im Grunde geht es bei allen derzeitigen Überlegungen zu den Perspektiven an den Finanzmärkten um eine Frage:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:q,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv69",content:{text:"Kehren wir zum Umfeld zurück, das in den Jahren vor der Pandemie geherrscht hatte, oder wird sich im Verlauf der kommenden Jahre ein neues, grundlegend verändertes Umfeld einstellen?"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv610",content:{text:"Wir Menschen unterliegen einem \u003Cem\u003ERecency Bias\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, wir tendieren dazu, das Erlebte in die Zukunft zu extrapolieren. Deshalb erachten wir das Umfeld, das vor dem Schock der Pandemie geherrscht hatte, als normal. Dieses Umfeld war während rund drei Jahrzehnten im Wesentlichen von folgenden Attributen geprägt:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv611",content:{text:"\u003Cstrong\u003EErstens,\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E Inflation war nie ein Thema (ausser in Schwellenländern)."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv612",content:{text:"\u003Cstrong\u003EZweitens,\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E die Zinsen folgten einem strukturell sinkenden Trend."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv70",content:{text:"\u003Cstrong\u003EDrittens,\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E die US-Notenbank war gutmütig zu Wallstreet und sprang immer rettend ein, wenn die Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten zu heftig wurden. Der \u003Cem\u003EFed Put\u003C\u002Fem\u003E war eine implizite Stütze, auf die Investoren fest zählen konnten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv71",content:{text:"Dieses Umfeld der stetig sinkenden Zinsen verlieh den Bewertungen aller Anlageklassen einen lang anhaltenden Rückenwind, wie es der Value-Investor \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fmeinung\u002Fsea-change-ld.8114\"\u003EHoward Marks hier sehr treffend\u003C\u002Fa\u003E beschreibt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv72",content:{text:"Selbstverständlich: Es ist möglich, dass es eine Rückkehr zu diesem Umfeld geben wird."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv73",content:{text:"Vielleicht aber auch nicht. Vielleicht stehen wir auch im Übergang zu einem grundlegend anderen Umfeld."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv74",content:{text:"Wir hatten diese Woche die Gelegenheit, über dieses Thema mit William White zu diskutieren. Der ehemalige Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) legte die Argumente dar, weshalb die kommenden Jahre von einem deutlich höheren, strukturellen Inflationsdruck geprägt sein könnten."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv75",content:{text:"White hat \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fmeinung\u002Fder-uebergang-von-einer-aera-des-ueberflusses-zu-einer-aera-des-mangels-ld.8078\"\u003Ein diesem Gastbeitrag für The Market\u003C\u002Fa\u003E Ende Dezember geschrieben, die Weltwirtschaft befinde sich im Übergang von einer Ära des Überflusses zu einer Ära der Knappheiten. Wir verzichten darauf, seine Argumente an dieser Stelle nochmals im Detail aufzuführen (das umfassende Interview mit Bill White werden wir in der kommenden Woche auf \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002F\"\u003Ethemarket.ch\u003C\u002Fa\u003E publizieren)."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv76",content:{text:"Im Kern skizziert White eine Welt, in der ein strukturell höherer Inflationsdruck herrscht und in der die Zinsen – sowohl auf realer als auch auf nominaler Basis – auf einem höheren Niveau liegen werden. Das würde bedeuten, dass sich Investoren vom Gedanken eines Umfeldes, in dem Inflation kein Thema war und die Zinsen stetig sanken, verabschieden müssen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv77",content:{text:"Für dieses Szenario spricht auch die historische Erfahrung der Nachkriegszeit. In dieser Periode kam es in den USA zu zwei Inflationsschüben, die punkto Tragweite mit der gegenwärtigen Erfahrung vergleichbar sind: Ende der Vierziger- und in den Siebzigerjahren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv78",content:{text:"So sah der Verlauf der Inflation in den Vierzigerjahren aus:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg4510t0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Inflation USA, 1940 – 1955\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-utT6F\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FutT6F\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv710",content:{text:"Und so in den Siebzigern:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1gpg45k6j0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Inflation USA, 1965 – 1985\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-OzJow\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FOzJow\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv712",content:{text:"In beiden Fällen kam es zu einer Art Jojo-Effekt von abwechselnden Inflations- und Disinflationsschüben. Aber weil sich der Teuerungsdruck in beiden Fällen strukturell im System festgesetzt hatte, beschleunigte sich die Inflation jeweils sofort wieder, sobald die Wirtschaft nach einem rezessiven Rückschlag zu einer Erholung ansetzte."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv80",content:{text:"Wir können nicht prognostizieren, welches Szenario eintreten wird. Aber müssten wir wetten, würden wir auf das Szenario «höhere Inflation und höhere Zinsen» setzen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv81",content:{text:"Zum Schluss noch ein Hinweis in eigener Sache: Nächste Woche fällt das «Big Picture» wegen Ferienabwesenheit des Autors ausnahmsweise aus. Am 3. März erscheint die nächste Ausgabe."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv82",content:{text:"Ab März führen wir auch unsere Live-Webinare wieder im gewohnten Zweiwochenrhythmus durch. Das nächste «The Big Picture Live»-Webinar findet am Montag, 6. März, um 16 Uhr statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market können sich \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fvideo\u002Fvideo-webinare-von-the-market-ld.3255\"\u003Eunter diesem Link\u003C\u002Fa\u003E für die Teilnahme registrieren."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv83",content:{text:"Die Video-Aufzeichnungen aller früheren Webinare finden Sie \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fvideo\u002Fvideo-webinare-von-the-market-ld.3255\"\u003Ehier\u003C\u002Fa\u003E."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:a$,lastContentElement:d},{identifier:a$,id:"doc-1gpg3ffv87",component:"sharebox",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:bt},{identifier:bt,id:"doc-1gpg4727d0",containers:{"moreToSubject-area":[{identifier:ah,id:"doc-1gpg4727d1",content:{"link-box-embed":{service:ai,params:{type:aj,layout:[m,ak,al,am,an,ao,J,K,L,M,ap,E,N,O,P,Q],mediaId:8429}},article:{metadata:{contentTypeGroup:y,flag:t,significantUpdate:b,language:{groupId:"yATb9kMBbEbg",label:aq,locale:w},title:"«Das Spekulationsfieber ist noch nicht vorbei»",seoTitle:"Jim Chanos: «Das Spekulationsfieber ist noch nicht vorbei»",nzzAuthors:[{external:b,name:"Gregor Mast (gm)",id:bu}],designName:x,significantUpdateTill:"2023-02-17T15:32:59.414Z",department:{path:z,level:r,name:t},publicationDate:bv,slug:"jim-chanos-das-spekulationsfieber-ist-noch-nicht-vorbei",firstPublicationDate:bv,authorLine:"Gregor Mast ✉",nzzCharacterCount:20444,numberOfContentComponents:64,leadText:"Der Short-Seller Jim Chanos hat nie einen so spekulativen Markt erlebt wie 2020 und 2021. Trotz der Korrektur bleibe die Börse anfällig für Enttäuschungen. Er erklärt, wie Unternehmen mit ihrer Buchführung tricksen und warum Tesla noch weiter fallen wird.",publicationLastUpdated:"2023-02-17T07:17:52.796Z",nzzArticleSnippet:"Der Short-Seller Jim Chanos hat nie einen so spekulativen Markt erlebt wie 2020 und 2021. Trotz der Korrektur bleibe die Börse anfällig für Enttäuschungen. 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Der Bondmarkt hat das realisiert – der von Spekulationsfieber getriebene Aktienmarkt noch nicht.","Quelle: Bianco Research","judi.moreToSubject--internal","embed-teaser","link-box-embed","gallery","video","fullwidth","alias-teaser","matchcard-teaser","recipe","German","moreToSubject--internal","English","Mark Dittli (md)",6,3280,"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fthe-big-picture\u002Fominoese-signale-an-den-aktienmaerkten-ld.8477","nzzas","preload","subtitle",1491,3648,"2023-02-17T19:56:16+02:00","The Market","main","Empfehlungen","\u002Fempfehlungen","Unternehmen","\u002Funternehmen","Strategie","\u002Fstrategie","Mr Market","\u002Fmister-market","\u002Fenglish","\u002Fagb","Impressum","\u002Fimpressum","https:\u002F\u002Fabo.themarket.ch\u002Fkampagne\u002F?lp=19003844","21","48","anonymous","font\u002Fwoff2","font","judi.barrier","judi.advertisement","judi.enumeration-numeric","judi.enumeration-regular","judi.sharebox",1323,"2023-02-03T16:51:13.800Z","classification=default,language=de-CH","themarket","https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch","Article","The Market abonnieren","Startseite","\u002F","\u003Cp\u003EEs ist ein Fehler aufgetreten. Bitte prüfen Sie Ihre Internetverbindung oder versuchen Sie es später erneut.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E","bellevue","judi.header","doc-1gpg3ffuu2","doc-1gpg3ffuu4","doc-1gpg3ffv03","doc-1gpg3ffv41","doc-1gpg3ffv57","Quelle: Nomura via @SoberLook","doc-1gpg3ffv65","judi.moreToSubject",2,"2023-02-17T03:32:59.414Z","ld.8429",304,"«Die Geldpolitik wird für lange Zeit nicht mehr so extrem expansiv sein wie in den vergangenen Jahren»: Jim Chanos.","Bild: GQG Partners","2023-02-10T03:04:45.026Z",2730,1515,355,"ld.8398","«In Sachen Energie herrscht in Europa eine gefährliche Selbstgefälligkeit»: Rajiv Jain.","2022-12-20T02:47:09.272Z","Eine Reihe von Angebotsschocks könnte dazu führen, dass sich die Inflation auf einem höheren Plateau einpendelt. Für die Zinsen könnte es daher «higher for longer» heissen.",4096,1516,2731,"ld.8078","Investoren richten sich in Bezug auf die Geldpolitik des Fed auf ein «Higher for longer» ein. Die Bondrenditen steigen wieder. Aus China sind noch kaum Wachstumssignale zu sehen.",2651,"ld.8407","Wachsende Risikofreude lässt die Kurse an den Aktienmärkten steigen. Aussagen von Fed-Chef Powell werden als Einladung verstanden, die Party fortzusetzen. Weltweit ist eine Zunahme der Liquidität zu beobachten. 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