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/></div></div><h2><a href="/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/2025-global-outlook-search-new-normal"><span property="schema:name">2025 global outlook: in search of a new normal</span></a></h2><div class="category primary_color"><div class="field_seccion field"> Dossier</div></div><div class="box_author_date box_ad box_with_image"><div class="field_author multiple"><div class="autor"><div about="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez" class="author-complete-teaser"> <a href="/en/author/jose-ramon-diez"><div class="field_fotografia field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/index_autor/public/content/image/2022/03/22/34454/joseramondiez-bn-cuadrada.jpg?itok=onBpj1ja" width="136" height="136" alt="Jos茅 Ram贸n D铆ez" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> Jos茅 Ram贸n D铆ez</div></div></div> </a></div></div></div><div class="created">November 18th, 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1.5-.22 1.5-1.5zm-.015-10.765c0-.91-.265-1.235-1.485-1.235h-17c-1.255 0-1.5.39-1.5 1.3l.015.14s9.035 6.22 10 6.56c1.02-.395 9.985-6.7 9.985-6.7l-.015-.065z"></path></svg></span> </a></div> <a href="#" title="Share Close" id="share_close" class="share_toggle" style="display: none"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14.147" height="13.777"><path fill="none" stroke="#0297cc" stroke-width="1.636" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-miterlimit="10" d="M1.629 1.538l10.999 11m-10.999 0l10.999-11"/></svg> </a></div><div class="col-left" style="display: none"><div class="menu_anchors_fixed"> <label>In this article</label><ul></ul></div></div><div class="col-right"><div class="field_paragraphs"><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> The latest economic activity indicators suggest that Q2 could prove better than expected</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>The economic climate indicator remained unchanged in Q2, while confidence in the industrial sector is improving and the production outlook has gained strength. In the same vein, household sentiment is聽showing a positive trend and the partial consumption indicators聽suggest that household spending remains buoyant. Investment-related indicators also predict a positive performance, with imports of capital goods accelerating. The foreign sector is performing well, although a sharper acceleration in imports could limit the contribution of foreign demand to GDP growth.</p><p>聽</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> The Portuguese economy鈥檚 lending capacity increased in Q1</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>The Portuguese economy鈥檚 lending capacity increased in Q1聽and stood at 8.76 billion euros in the cumulative 12-month period, representing 3.2% of GDP, half a point higher than at the end of 2023. This evolution was the result of a 3.2% increase in the total volume of savings in the economy, as well as an increase of 4% in the balance of transfers received from the rest of the world (including European funds) compared to almost stable investment, which grew by just 0.2%. By sector, companies are saving the most, as well as being the sector that is receiving the most capital transfers. However, they are also the group that is investing the most, which translates into financing needs of 2.2% of GDP. In the rest of the sectors, the situation is reversed: savings exceed investment, thus contributing to the economy having a lending capacity. In the case of households, their savings rate increased to 8% of disposable income, the highest level since 2014. This reflects the higher income growth (8.4% vs. 5.3% for consumption), supported by the strong growth in the total wage mass (employment and wages) of 10.6%. Finally, the public sector recorded a surplus of 0.9% of GDP.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Inflation resumed its downward trend in June</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>Following the shock of the previous month, the CPI once again stood below 3% in June. Specifically, it fell 0.3 pps to 2.8%, while the core index decreased 0.4 pps to 2.3%. Although fluctuations are still expected in 2024, we expect a more favourable trajectory and that inflation will remain below 3%, meaning that the path towards disinflation appears to have consolidated.</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/07/16/34454/im07_24_ep_03_en.jpg?itok=-1JL1eiI" width="900" height="811" alt="Portugal: CPI" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_g_titulo field"> Home prices continue to rise in 2024</div><div class="field_descripcion field"><p>For the third consecutive quarter, in Q1 2024 the quarter-on-quarter change in the home price index slowed (0.6% vs. 1.3% previously), although prices still registered sharp year-on-year growth, at 7%. The number of sales fell by 3.1% in the quarterly rate and by 4.1% year-on-year, although the trend points to a stabilisation at around 30,000 homes/quarter (above the pre-pandemic average of 25,300/quarter).</p></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_imagen pmode_default"><div class="field_imagen field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/container_1400/public/content/image/2024/07/16/34454/im07_24_ep_04_en.jpg?itok=ACERvtYy" width="900" height="811" alt="Portugal: home price index" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div></div></div><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-complete-teaser"> <span class="external"><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div> </span></div></div></div><div class="field_tags"><div class="label">Tags:</div><div class="tag_list"> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a> <a href="/en/tags/portugal" property="schema:about" hreflang="en">Portugal</a></div></div><ul class="custom footnotes"></ul></div></div><div class="relacionados upper_menu_anchors"><div class="three-col border-bottom view view-eva view-articulos-relacionados view-id-articulos_relacionados view-display-id-relacionados js-view-dom-id-bb8af1b66fe6b084056ca542d10c71d626baf3e3f7a7a8f2c4dcf26d953a90df view-lista-articulos"> <header><div class="tex2jax_process"><h3>To read below</h3></div> </header><div class="flex three-columns-gap20 wrap"> <article data-history-node-id="12949" role="article" about="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals" typeof="schema:Article" class="node article teaser-llista-articles"> <a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/teaser/public/content/image/2024/11/07/34454/ico_im_10_pt.jpg?itok=6sve3X-U" width="433" height="289" alt="IM11" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div> </a><div class="category "> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a></div><h2 class="teaser_title"><a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-kicks-last-quarter-year-encouraging-signals"><span property="schema:name">Portugal kicks off the last quarter of the year with encouraging signals</span></a></h2><div class="autor-fecha slash"><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div></div></div><div class="fecha"> 14 Nov 2024</div></div></article><article data-history-node-id="12842" role="article" about="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-revision-national-accounts-points-more-robust" typeof="schema:Article" class="node article teaser-llista-articles"> <a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-revision-national-accounts-points-more-robust"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/teaser/public/content/image/2024/10/16/34454/ico_im_10_pt_eng.jpg?itok=seytCAj4" width="433" height="289" alt="IM10" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div> </a><div class="category "> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a></div><h2 class="teaser_title"><a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portugal-revision-national-accounts-points-more-robust"><span property="schema:name">Portugal: the revision of the National Accounts points to a more robust economy</span></a></h2><div class="autor-fecha slash"><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div></div></div><div class="fecha"> 16 Oct 2024</div></div></article><article data-history-node-id="12775" role="article" about="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portuguese-economy-loses-momentum-q2" typeof="schema:Article" class="node article teaser-llista-articles"> <a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portuguese-economy-loses-momentum-q2"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/teaser/public/content/image/2024/09/09/34454/ico_im_09_24_pt.jpg?itok=h-rkmxr5" width="433" height="289" alt="IM09" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div> </a><div class="category "> <a href="/en/tags/portugal-outlook" hreflang="en">Portugal outlook</a></div><h2 class="teaser_title"><a href="/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portuguese-economy-loses-momentum-q2"><span property="schema:name"> The Portuguese economy loses momentum in Q2</span></a></h2><div class="autor-fecha slash"><div class="field_author single author_no_photo "><div class="autor"><div about="/en/taxonomy/term/1165" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> CaixaBank Research</div></div></div></div></div><div class="fecha"> 16 Sep 2024</div></div></article></div></div></div></article></div></div></div></main><footer role="contentinfo"><div class="container"><div class="logo_caixa_footer"> <a href="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en" title="CaixaBank Research footer logo"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" version="1.1" x="0px" y="0px" viewBox="0 0 469.7 126" style="enable-background:new 0 0 469.7 126;" xml:space="preserve"> <g> <path class="st0" 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