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(PDF) Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation
<!DOCTYPE html> <html > <head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="/open_search.xml" title="Academia.edu"> <meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" name="viewport"> <meta name="google-site-verification" content="bKJMBZA7E43xhDOopFZkssMMkBRjvYERV-NaN4R6mrs"> <meta name="csrf-param" content="authenticity_token" /> <meta name="csrf-token" content="xZHMqjkY6d2coL2shfvs2RH0xlF0sPVOCZ_3N1ws1Y8L2Yiq2d1rNJRMCZa5LnAMRWAsLfOprQIDMOQKR2LtSQ" /> <meta name="citation_title" content="Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation" /> <meta name="citation_author" content="Ian J Walker" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary" /> <meta name="twitter:url" content="https://www.academia.edu/16785075/Coastal_vulnerability_across_the_Pacific_dominated_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water" /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://0.academia-photos.com/11962699/3437185/4041511/s200_ian.walker.jpg" /> <meta property="fb:app_id" content="2369844204" /> <meta property="og:type" content="article" /> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.academia.edu/16785075/Coastal_vulnerability_across_the_Pacific_dominated_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation" /> <meta property="og:title" content="Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation" /> <meta property="og:image" content="http://a.academia-assets.com/images/open-graph-icons/fb-paper.gif" /> <meta property="og:description" content="To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water" /> <meta property="article:author" content="https://ucsb.academia.edu/IanWalker" /> <meta name="description" content="To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water" /> <title>(PDF) Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation</title> <link rel="canonical" href="https://www.academia.edu/19891209/Coastal_vulnerability_across_the_Pacific_dominated_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation" /> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5VKX33P2DS"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5VKX33P2DS', { cookie_domain: 'academia.edu', send_page_view: false, }); gtag('event', 'page_view', { 'controller': "single_work", 'action': "show", 'controller_action': 'single_work#show', 'logged_in': 'false', 'edge': 'unknown', // Send nil if there is no A/B test bucket, in case some records get logged // with missing data - that way we can distinguish between the two cases. // ab_test_bucket should be of the form <ab_test_name>:<bucket> 'ab_test_bucket': null, }) </script> <script> var $controller_name = 'single_work'; var $action_name = "show"; var $rails_env = 'production'; var $app_rev = '0b084d6c6ceae1a6387d72de14e4c4adb2734a0a'; var $domain = 'academia.edu'; var $app_host = "academia.edu"; var $asset_host = "academia-assets.com"; var $start_time = new Date().getTime(); var $recaptcha_key = "6LdxlRMTAAAAADnu_zyLhLg0YF9uACwz78shpjJB"; var $recaptcha_invisible_key = "6Lf3KHUUAAAAACggoMpmGJdQDtiyrjVlvGJ6BbAj"; var $disableClientRecordHit = false; </script> <script> window.require = { config: function() { return function() {} } } </script> <script> window.Aedu = window.Aedu || {}; window.Aedu.hit_data = null; window.Aedu.serverRenderTime = new Date(1740595580000); window.Aedu.timeDifference = new Date().getTime() - 1740595580000; </script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"ScholarlyArticle","abstract":"To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.","author":[{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Person","name":"Ian J Walker","url":"https://ucsb.academia.edu/IanWalker"}],"contributor":[],"dateCreated":"2015-10-14","headline":"Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation","image":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/39181306/thumbnails/1.jpg","inLanguage":"en","keywords":["Coastal Management","Climate Change","Coastal Processes","Climate variability","Coastal Dunes","Coastal Erosion","El Niño","Shoreline Management Planning","Sea-Level Rise","Wave and Storm Surge Modelling","Coastal Flood Hazards","El Nino-Southern Oscillation","Pacific Decadal 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However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal\nwater levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although\nthese components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located\ndata assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches\nthroughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with\nEl Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American\npattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated\nto a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite\nto those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño\nand La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean\nbasin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.","ai_title_tag":"Coastal Vulnerability Linked to El Niño in Pacific Region"},"document_type":"paper","pre_hit_view_count_baseline":null,"quality":"high","language":"en","title":"Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation","broadcastable":true,"draft":null,"has_indexable_attachment":true,"indexable":true}}["work"]; window.loswp.workCoauthors = [11962699]; window.loswp.locale = "en"; window.loswp.countryCode = "SG"; window.loswp.cwvAbTestBucket = ""; window.loswp.designVariant = "ds_vanilla"; window.loswp.fullPageMobileSutdModalVariant = "control"; window.loswp.useOptimizedScribd4genScript = false; window.loginModal = {}; window.loginModal.appleClientId = 'edu.academia.applesignon'; 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However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.</p><div class="ds-work-card--button-container"><button class="ds2-5-button js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"continue-reading-button--work-card","attachmentId":39181306,"attachmentType":"pdf","workUrl":"https://www.academia.edu/16785075/Coastal_vulnerability_across_the_Pacific_dominated_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation"}">See full PDF</button><button class="ds2-5-button ds2-5-button--secondary js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"download-pdf-button--work-card","attachmentId":39181306,"attachmentType":"pdf","workUrl":"https://www.academia.edu/16785075/Coastal_vulnerability_across_the_Pacific_dominated_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation"}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 20px" translate="no">download</span>Download PDF</button></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-trigger-container"><div class="ds-signup-banner-trigger ds-signup-banner-trigger-control"></div></div><div class="ds-signup-banner ds-signup-banner-control"><div id="ds-signup-banner-close-button"><button class="ds2-5-button ds2-5-button--secondary ds2-5-button--inverse"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 20px" translate="no">close</span></button></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-ctas" data-impression-entity-id="16785075" data-impression-entity-type="2" data-impression-source="signup-banner"><img src="//a.academia-assets.com/images/academia-logo-capital-white.svg" /><h4 class="ds2-5-heading-serif-sm">Sign up for access to the world's latest research</h4><button class="ds2-5-button ds2-5-button--inverse ds2-5-button--full-width js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"signup-banner"}">Sign up for free<span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 20px" translate="no">arrow_forward</span></button></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-divider"></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-reasons"><div class="ds-signup-banner-reasons-item"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 24px" translate="no">check</span><span>Get notified about relevant papers</span></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-reasons-item"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 24px" translate="no">check</span><span>Save papers to use in your research</span></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-reasons-item"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 24px" translate="no">check</span><span>Join the discussion with peers</span></div><div class="ds-signup-banner-reasons-item"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 24px" translate="no">check</span><span>Track your impact</span></div></div></div><script>(() => { // Set up signup banner show/hide behavior: // 1. 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The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015-2016 El Niño","attachmentId":116385838,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/121536095/Extreme_oceanographic_forcing_and_coastal_response_due_to_the_2015_2016_El_Ni%C3%B1o","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/121536095/Extreme_oceanographic_forcing_and_coastal_response_due_to_the_2015_2016_El_Ni%C3%B1o"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="1" data-entity-id="8910939" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/8910939/The_impact_of_the_2009_10_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Modoki_on_U_S_West_Coast_beaches">The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="19629314" href="https://oregonstate.academia.edu/PeterRuggiero">Peter Ruggiero</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Geophysical Research Letters, 2011</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches","attachmentId":47957577,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/8910939/The_impact_of_the_2009_10_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Modoki_on_U_S_West_Coast_beaches","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/8910939/The_impact_of_the_2009_10_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Modoki_on_U_S_West_Coast_beaches"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="2" data-entity-id="106620203" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/106620203/Seasonal_Sea_Level_Outlook_and_Reducing_Vulnerability_to_Coastal_Hazards_the_experience_of_the_Pacific_ENSO_Applications_Center">Seasonal Sea Level Outlook and Reducing Vulnerability to Coastal Hazardsthe experience of the 'Pacific ENSO Applications Center</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="44584729" href="https://independent.academia.edu/RashedChowdhury9">Rashed Chowdhury</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">iwra.org</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Abstract: The occurrence of extreme sea levels and the associated erosion/inundation problems are important issues for the small and most vulnerable communities in the vicinity of US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). Therefore, the objective of this study is to provide an improved ...</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Seasonal Sea Level Outlook and Reducing Vulnerability to Coastal Hazardsthe experience of the 'Pacific ENSO Applications Center","attachmentId":105729736,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/106620203/Seasonal_Sea_Level_Outlook_and_Reducing_Vulnerability_to_Coastal_Hazards_the_experience_of_the_Pacific_ENSO_Applications_Center","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/106620203/Seasonal_Sea_Level_Outlook_and_Reducing_Vulnerability_to_Coastal_Hazards_the_experience_of_the_Pacific_ENSO_Applications_Center"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="3" data-entity-id="81328343" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/81328343/Identification_of_storm_events_and_contiguous_coastal_sections_for_deterministic_modeling_of_extreme_coastal_flood_events_in_response_to_climate_change">Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="40500509" href="https://independent.academia.edu/AntonioEspejo2">Antonio Espejo</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Coastal Engineering, 2018</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or scenarios of interest and dynamically modeling those events in detail. In this study, an efficient approach to selecting storm events for subsequent deterministic detailed modeling of coastal flooding is presented. The approach identifies locally relevant scenarios derived from regional datasets spanning long time-periods and covering large geographic areas. This is done by identifying storm events from global climate models using a robust, yet computationally simple approach for calculating total water level proxies at the shore, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to the overall total water level. Clustering of the total water level time-series is used to define coherent coastal cells where similar return period water level extrema occur in response to region-wide storms. Results show that the more severe but rare coastal flood events (e.g., the 100-year (yr) event) typically occur from the same storm across the region, but that a number of different storms are responsible for the less severe but more frequent local extreme water levels (e.g., the 1-yr event). This new 'storm selection' approach is applied to the Southern California Bight, a region of varying shoreline orientations that is subject to wave refraction across complex bathymetry, and shadowing, focusing, diffraction, and dissipation of wave energy by islands. Results indicate that wave runup dominates total water level extremes at this study site, highlighting the importance of downscaling global-scale models to nearshore waves when seeking accurate projections of local coastal hazards in response to climate change.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change","attachmentId":87409929,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/81328343/Identification_of_storm_events_and_contiguous_coastal_sections_for_deterministic_modeling_of_extreme_coastal_flood_events_in_response_to_climate_change","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/81328343/Identification_of_storm_events_and_contiguous_coastal_sections_for_deterministic_modeling_of_extreme_coastal_flood_events_in_response_to_climate_change"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="4" data-entity-id="25835165" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/25835165/Influence_of_El_Nino_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_events_on_the_evolution_of_central_Californias_shoreline">Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="25191111" href="https://unitedstatesgeologicalsurvey.academia.edu/CurtStorlazzi">Curt Storlazzi</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Geological Society of America Bulletin, 2000</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4-6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1-3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of largescale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate-to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline","attachmentId":46200972,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/25835165/Influence_of_El_Nino_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_events_on_the_evolution_of_central_Californias_shoreline","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/25835165/Influence_of_El_Nino_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_events_on_the_evolution_of_central_Californias_shoreline"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="5" data-entity-id="125110409" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/125110409/Characterizing_storm_induced_coastal_change_hazards_along_the_United_States_West_Coast">Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="25191111" href="https://unitedstatesgeologicalsurvey.academia.edu/CurtStorlazzi">Curt Storlazzi</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Scientific Data, 2022</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal settings worldwide. TWLs were derived from 61 years of wave and water level data at shore-perpendicular transects every 100-m along open coast shorelines. At each location, wave data from the Global Ocean Waves model were downscaled to the nearshore and used to empirically calculate wave run-up. tides were simulated using the Oregon State University's tidal data inversion model and non-tidal residuals were calculated from sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies. Wave run-up was combined with still water levels to generate hourly TWL estimates and extreme TWLs for multiple return periods. Extremes were compared to onshore morphology to determine erosion hazards and define the probability of collision, overwash, and inundation.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast","attachmentId":119212305,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/125110409/Characterizing_storm_induced_coastal_change_hazards_along_the_United_States_West_Coast","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/125110409/Characterizing_storm_induced_coastal_change_hazards_along_the_United_States_West_Coast"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="6" data-entity-id="116542725" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/116542725/The_coastal_ocean_response_to_the_global_warming_acceleration_and_hiatus">The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="295944990" href="https://independent.academia.edu/ENHUILIAO2">ENHUI LIAO</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Scientific Reports, 2015</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhil...</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus","attachmentId":112643104,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/116542725/The_coastal_ocean_response_to_the_global_warming_acceleration_and_hiatus","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/116542725/The_coastal_ocean_response_to_the_global_warming_acceleration_and_hiatus"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="7" data-entity-id="25835157" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/25835157/Influence_of_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_Events_on_the_Coastline_of_Central_California">Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on the Coastline of Central California</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="25191111" href="https://unitedstatesgeologicalsurvey.academia.edu/CurtStorlazzi">Curt Storlazzi</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Journal of Coastal Research, 1998</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4-6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1-3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of largescale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate-to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on the Coastline of Central California","attachmentId":46200976,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/25835157/Influence_of_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_Events_on_the_Coastline_of_Central_California","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/25835157/Influence_of_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation_ENSO_Events_on_the_Coastline_of_Central_California"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="8" data-entity-id="48001691" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/48001691/Sea_level_change_and_storm_surges_in_the_context_of_climate_change">Sea-level change and storm surges in the context of climate change</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="31536844" href="https://independent.academia.edu/WillemDeLange">Willem De Lange</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">2000</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">This paper reviews the latest research in New Zealand surrounding the issues of sea-level rise and extreme sea levels in the context of global warming and variability in the Pacific-wide El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Past records of climate, sea level (excluding tides) and sea and air temperatures have shown that they are continuously fluctuating over various long-term timescales of years, decades and centuries. This has made it very difficult to determine whether the anthropogenic effects such as increased levels of "greenhouse" gases are having an accelerating effect on global sea levels or an increased incidence of extreme storms. Over the past century, global sea level has risen by 10-25 cm, and is in line with the rise in relative sea level at New Zealand's main ports of +1.7 mm yr-1. What has become very clear is the need to better understand interannual (year-to-year) and decadal variability in sea-level, as these larger signals of the order of 5-15 cm in annual-mean sea level have a significant "flow-on" effect on the long-term trend in sea level. The paper describes sea level variability in northern New Zealand-both long-and short-term-involved in assessing the regional trends in sea level. The paper also discusses the relative contributions of tides, barometric pressure and wind setup in causing extreme sea levels during storm surges. Some recent research also looked at a related question-Is there any sign of increased storminess, and hence storm surge, in northern New Zealand due to climate change? The paper concludes that, while no one can be completely sure how sea-level and the degree of storminess will respond in the near future, what is clear is that interannual and decadal variability in sea level is inextricably linked with Pacific-wide ENSO response and longer inter-decadal shifts in the Pacific climate regime, such as the latest shift in 1976.</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Sea-level change and storm surges in the context of climate change","attachmentId":66840245,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/48001691/Sea_level_change_and_storm_surges_in_the_context_of_climate_change","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/48001691/Sea_level_change_and_storm_surges_in_the_context_of_climate_change"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-wsj-grid-card" data-collection-position="9" data-entity-id="105603849" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-wsj-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/105603849/An_assessment_of_whether_long_term_global_changes_in_waves_and_storm_surges_have_impacted_global_coastlines">An assessment of whether long-term global changes in waves and storm surges have impacted global coastlines</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-wsj-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="263285178" href="https://independent.academia.edu/MANDANAGHANAVATI">MANDANA GHANAVATI</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Scientific Reports</p><p class="ds-related-work--abstract ds2-5-body-sm">A common inference in research studies of observed and projected changes in global ocean wave height and storm surge, is that such changes are potentially important for long-term coastal management. Despite numerous studies of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on trends in global wind and waves, a clear link to impacts on sandy coastlines, at global scale, is yet to be demonstrated. This study presents a first-pass assessment of the potential link between historical trends in global wave and storm surge values and recession/progradation rates of sandy coastlines since the 1980s. Global datasets of waves, surge and shoreline change rate are used for this purpose. Over the past 30 + years, we show that there have been clear changes in waves and storm surge at global scale. The data, however, does not show an unequivocal linkage between trends in wave and storm surge climate and sandy shoreline recession/progradation. We conclude that these long-term changes in oceanographic ...</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"An assessment of whether long-term global changes in waves and storm surges have impacted global coastlines","attachmentId":105011991,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/105603849/An_assessment_of_whether_long_term_global_changes_in_waves_and_storm_surges_have_impacted_global_coastlines","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-wsj-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/105603849/An_assessment_of_whether_long_term_global_changes_in_waves_and_storm_surges_have_impacted_global_coastlines"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--wrapper js-loswp-sticky-ctas hidden"><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--grid-container"><div class="ds-sticky-ctas--container"><button class="ds2-5-button js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"continue-reading-button--sticky-ctas","attachmentId":39181306,"attachmentType":"pdf","workUrl":null}">See full PDF</button><button class="ds2-5-button ds2-5-button--secondary js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"download-pdf-button--sticky-ctas","attachmentId":39181306,"attachmentType":"pdf","workUrl":null}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 20px" translate="no">download</span>Download PDF</button></div></div></div><div class="ds-below-fold--grid-container"><div class="ds-work--container js-loswp-embedded-document"><div class="attachment_preview" data-attachment="Attachment_39181306" style="display: none"><div class="js-scribd-document-container"><div class="scribd--document-loading js-scribd-document-loader" style="display: block;"><img alt="Loading..." src="//a.academia-assets.com/images/loaders/paper-load.gif" /><p>Loading Preview</p></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="scribd--no-preview-alert js-preview-unavailable"><p>Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.</p></div></div></div></div><div class="ds-sidebar--container js-work-sidebar"><div class="ds-related-content--container"><h2 class="ds-related-content--heading">Related papers</h2><div class="ds-related-work--container js-related-work-sidebar-card" data-collection-position="0" data-entity-id="13333225" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-related-work-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/13333225/Sea_level_extremes_in_the_U_S_Affiliated_Pacific_Islands_a_coastal_hazard_scenario_to_aid_in_decision_analyses">Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="32572843" href="https://eastwestcenter.academia.edu/JohnMarra">John Marra</a><span>, </span><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="32615192" href="https://independent.academia.edu/ThomasSchroeder1">Thomas Schroeder</a><span>, </span><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="44584729" href="https://independent.academia.edu/RashedChowdhury9">Rashed Chowdhury</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Journal of Coastal Conservation, 2010</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses","attachmentId":45455507,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/13333225/Sea_level_extremes_in_the_U_S_Affiliated_Pacific_Islands_a_coastal_hazard_scenario_to_aid_in_decision_analyses","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-related-work-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/13333225/Sea_level_extremes_in_the_U_S_Affiliated_Pacific_Islands_a_coastal_hazard_scenario_to_aid_in_decision_analyses"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-related-work-sidebar-card" data-collection-position="1" data-entity-id="24535920" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-related-work-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/24535920/Dynamical_suppression_of_sea_level_rise_along_the_Pacific_coast_of_North_America_Indications_for_imminent_acceleration">Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="32705445" href="https://independent.academia.edu/PeterBromirski">Peter Bromirski</a></div><p class="ds-related-work--metadata ds2-5-body-xs">Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011</p><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration","attachmentId":44867150,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/24535920/Dynamical_suppression_of_sea_level_rise_along_the_Pacific_coast_of_North_America_Indications_for_imminent_acceleration","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-related-work-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/24535920/Dynamical_suppression_of_sea_level_rise_along_the_Pacific_coast_of_North_America_Indications_for_imminent_acceleration"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-related-work-sidebar-card" data-collection-position="2" data-entity-id="36135485" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-related-work-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/36135485/Future_extreme_sea_level_seesaws_in_the_tropical_Pacific">Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="34226850" href="https://pusan.academia.edu/AxelTimmermann">Axel Timmermann</a></div><div class="ds-related-work--ctas"><button class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-swp-download-button" data-signup-modal="{"location":"wsj-grid-card-download-pdf-modal","work_title":"Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific","attachmentId":56028201,"attachmentType":"pdf","work_url":"https://www.academia.edu/36135485/Future_extreme_sea_level_seesaws_in_the_tropical_Pacific","alternativeTracking":true}"><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">download</span><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">Download free PDF</span></button><a class="ds2-5-text-link ds2-5-text-link--inline js-related-work-grid-card-view-pdf" href="https://www.academia.edu/36135485/Future_extreme_sea_level_seesaws_in_the_tropical_Pacific"><span class="ds2-5-text-link__content">View PDF</span><span class="material-symbols-outlined" style="font-size: 18px" translate="no">chevron_right</span></a></div></div><div class="ds-related-work--container js-related-work-sidebar-card" data-collection-position="3" data-entity-id="8910942" data-sort-order="default"><a class="ds-related-work--title js-related-work-grid-card-title ds2-5-body-md ds2-5-body-link" href="https://www.academia.edu/8910942/Extreme_Waves_and_Coastal_Erosion_in_the_Pacific_Northwest">Extreme Waves and Coastal Erosion in the Pacific Northwest</a><div class="ds-related-work--metadata"><a class="js-related-work-grid-card-author ds2-5-body-sm ds2-5-body-link" data-author-id="19629314" 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