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A Good Country’s Bad Choice - The Atlantic
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data-action="click link - project - image 2" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/democrats-2022-error-message/680661/" data-event-element="image" data-event-position="2"><picture class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articlePicture__wR05Z"><img alt="A photomontage involving pictures of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden overlaid in a political map" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Rg2MvNA19ll0aThiuJr01VNjWqk=/463x0:1588x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/NtZVDznOjSKq6TgkJEyDpApuCL8=/463x0:1588x1125/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/Rg2MvNA19ll0aThiuJr01VNjWqk=/463x0:1588x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/dem2_1/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 2" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/democrats-2022-error-message/680661/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="2">The Democrats’ 2022 Error Message</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ronald-brownstein/" data-action="click link - project - author 2" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ronald-brownstein/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="2">Ronald Brownstein</a></li><li class="ArticleBentoRecirc_article__drQUh"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleLink__LBkjA"><figure class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleFigure__g9vgl" data-action="click link - project - image 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" data-event-element="image" data-event-position="3"><picture class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articlePicture__wR05Z"><img alt="Back view of two small elephants with a large elephant between them" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/sR99LHH9ebi1kWAbIhYkUSyT3oM=/438x0:1563x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/LOI9tDVj-2Azjkzg15HVncw1w0A=/438x0:1563x1125/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/sR99LHH9ebi1kWAbIhYkUSyT3oM=/438x0:1563x1125/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/Trump_Trifecta_final/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/republicans-win-senate-house-presidency/680636/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="3">What Trump Can (And Probably Can’t) Do With His Trifecta</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/russell-berman/" data-action="click link - project - author 3" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/russell-berman/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="3">Russell Berman</a></li><li class="ArticleBentoRecirc_article__drQUh ArticleBentoRecirc_hideAtBreak__gKcJW"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleLink__LBkjA"><figure class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleFigure__g9vgl" data-action="click link - project - image 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" data-event-element="image" data-event-position="4"><picture class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articlePicture__wR05Z"><img alt="Donald Trump's silhouette" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBentoRecirc_articleImage__M6dMP" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/jgzMWVEaOg3JgoWLKQ9YppZYskk=/1728x0:4428x2700/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/tdvtin4FaAvPEBfpARDBsTKm_nY=/1728x0:4428x2700/160x160/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg 2x" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/jgzMWVEaOg3JgoWLKQ9YppZYskk=/1728x0:4428x2700/80x80/media/img/mt/2024/11/HR_16271170/original.jpg" width="80" height="80"/></picture></figure><h3 class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleTitle__8fFYc" data-action="click link - project - title 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/america-trump-different-now/680637/" data-event-element="title" data-event-position="4">Don’t Give Up on the Truth</h3></a><a class="ArticleBentoRecirc_articleAuthor__kirBf" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/peter-wehner/" data-action="click link - project - author 4" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/peter-wehner/" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="4">Peter Wehner</a></li></ul></aside><article class="ArticleLayout_article__RHFMN article-content-body"><header class="ArticleHero_root__3w7kV" data-event-module="hero"><div class="ArticleHero_twoColumnLockupWrapper__1MJxU"><div class="ArticleHero_twoColArticleLockup__xsGgl"><div class="ArticleHero_rubric__e4rjD ArticleHero_twoColRubric__8kY4w"><div class="ArticleRubric_root__HNhbf" id="rubric" data-flatplan-rubric="true"><a class="ArticleRubric_link__nl9hy" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/" data-action="click link - section rubric" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/" data-event-element="rubric">Politics</a></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_title__PQ4pC"><h1 class="ArticleTitle_root__VrZaG ArticleTitle_featureOrTwoCol__TRUC3 ArticleTitle_twoCol__8npP_" data-flatplan-title="true">A Good Country’s Bad Choice</h1></div><div class="ArticleHero_dek__EqdkK" data-flatplan-description="true"><p class="ArticleDek_root__P3leE ArticleDek_twoCol__BtQqH">And what I got wrong about the 2024 election</p></div><div class="ArticleHero_byline__iFT6A ArticleHero_twoColByline__VhWQ_"><div class="ArticleBylines_root__IBR5V ArticleBylines_twoCol__rmKE3"><address id="byline">By <a class="ArticleBylines_link__kNP4C" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-action="click author - byline" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-event-element="author" data-flatplan-author-link="true">David Frum</a></address></div></div></div><div class="ArticleLeadArt_root__nRSLU ArticleLeadArt_twoCol__XedW5"><figure class="ArticleLeadFigure_root__Bj81R"><div class="ArticleLeadFigure_media__R1npW" data-flatplan-lead_figure_media="true"><picture><img alt="A photo-illustration of Donald Trump's portrait covered in "I Voted" stickers." class="Image_root__XxsOp ArticleLeadArt_image__HZS4B" sizes="(min-width: 1440px) 656px, (min-width:1024px) calc(50vw - 64px), (min-width: 768px) calc(50vw - 48px), (min-width: 375px) calc(100vw - 103px), (min-width: 320px) calc(100vw - 64px), calc(100vw - 48px)" srcSet="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/a_v7lPw3BPJkbUYug1dYuCP_bLM=/0x0:1200x1500/296x370/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 296w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/o3P17LbSjsaeiHuqwFYuFLSbcR8=/0x0:1200x1500/311x389/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 311w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/HTn-0ah4NesG9_bqadOvSWwJInM=/0x0:1200x1500/592x740/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 592w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/rdMq-v0BAQLk-DBFRQgIPTQ99oE=/0x0:1200x1500/622x778/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 622w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/qHxhNhOBUXcHyTDL6bWHk4fELYo=/0x0:1200x1500/665x831/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 665w, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/iAknWmkBekR1LO8iWqMR3iM-BCc=/0x0:1200x1500/960x1200/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg 960w" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/d9_wHvTHWoGUk0M1eZRqYhM9pWw=/0x0:1200x1500/648x810/media/img/2024/11/21/TrumpStickersArticle/original.jpg" id="article-lead-image" width="648" height="810"/></picture></div><figcaption class="ArticleLeadFigure_caption__Byu7W ArticleLeadFigure_twoColCaption__WSIXu" data-flatplan-lead_figure_caption="true">Illustration by Paul Spella / The Atlantic. Sources: Brandon Bell / Getty; Shutterstock.</figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBar__JbQFj"><div class="ArticleHero_timestamp__bKhcB"><time class="ArticleTimestamp_root__b3bL6" dateTime="2024-11-22T12:00:00Z" data-flatplan-timestamp="true">November 22, 2024, 7 AM ET</time> </div><div class="ArticleHero_articleUtilityBarTools__ZHw8s"><div class="ArticleShare_root__Mq0RB"><button class="ArticleShare_text__oQKBy ArticleShare_shareButton__X0cIe" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls=":R1i5ioomm:" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open Share Menu" data-action="click share - expand" data-event-verb="shared" data-event-element="share dropdown">Share<svg width="15" height="15" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="ArticleShare_shareIcon__G4iq1"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M7.335.272a.25.25 0 01.337 0l4.623 4.204a.25.25 0 01.017.353l-.336.37a.25.25 0 01-.353.016L8.004 1.926v7.9a.25.25 0 01-.25.25h-.5a.25.25 0 01-.25-.25V1.924l-3.62 3.291a.25.25 0 01-.353-.016l-.336-.37a.25.25 0 01.016-.353L7.335.272zM.5 7.545a.25.25 0 00-.25.25v6.75c0 .138.112.25.25.25h14a.25.25 0 00.25-.25v-6.75a.25.25 0 00-.25-.25H14a.25.25 0 00-.25.25v6H1.25v-6a.25.25 0 00-.25-.25H.5z" fill="#000"></path></svg></button></div><button class="SaveButton_saveButton__7LYFZ" aria-label="Save"><span class="SaveButton_text__fiZgx">Save<!-- --> </span><svg width="12" height="16" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="SaveButton_icon__HFNiD SaveButton_unsaved__bP4MN"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M6 10.828l5 3.31V1H1v13.139l5-3.31zM.776 15.486A.5.5 0 010 15.07V.5A.5.5 0 01.5 0h11a.5.5 0 01.5.5v14.57a.5.5 0 01-.776.416L6.138 12.12a.25.25 0 00-.276 0L.776 15.486z" fill="currentColor"></path><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M5.572 8.75c0 .138.111.25.25.25h.5a.25.25 0 00.25-.25V6.57H8.75A.25.25 0 009 6.32v-.5a.25.25 0 00-.25-.25H6.572V3.25a.25.25 0 00-.25-.25h-.5a.25.25 0 00-.25.25v2.32H3.25a.25.25 0 00-.25.25v.5c0 .138.112.25.25.25h2.322v2.18z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></button></div></div><gpt-ad class="GptAd_root__pAvcS ArticleInjector_root__I7x9v LeadArticleAd_root__tdCqm s-native s-native--standard s-native--streamline" format="injector" sizes-at-0="mobile-wide" targeting-pos="injector-article-start" sizes-at-976="desktop-wide"></gpt-ad><div class="ArticleInjector_clsAvoider__dqIAm" style="--placeholderHeight:298px"></div></header><div class="ArticleAudio_root__4Qcq3" data-view-action="view - 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Listen to more stories on the Noa app.</p></div><section class="ArticleBody_root__2gF81" data-event-module="article body" data-flatplan-body="true"><div class="ArticleLegacyHtml_root__WFd2I ArticleLegacyHtml_standard__kC_zi"><p data-flatplan-paragraph="true"><small><i>Sign up for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/sign-up/the-decision-a-2024-newsletter/">The Decision</a>, a newsletter featuring coverage of the 2024 race and what comes next.</i></small></p></div><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Once she became the nominee, I expected Vice President Kamala Harris to win the 2024 presidential election.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">More exactly, I expected ex-President Donald Trump to lose.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">What did I get wrong?</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">My expectation was based on three observations and one belief.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Observation one: Inflation was coming under control in 2024. Personal incomes <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1BAhk">rose faster</a> than prices over the year. As interest rates peaked and began to subside, consumer confidence <a data-event-element="inline link" href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">climbed</a>. When asked about their personal finances, Americans expressed qualms, yes, but the number who rated their personal finances as excellent or good was a solid <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/644690/americans-continue-name-inflation-top-financial-problem.aspx">46 percent</a>, higher than in the year President Barack Obama won reelection. The same voters who complained about the national economy <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/october-2023-poll/">rated</a> their local economy much more favorably.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">None of this was great news for the incumbent party, and yet …</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Observation two: All through the 2024 cycle, a majority of Americans <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/">expressed</a> an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Almost <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/652427/trump-harris-favorability-low-end-year-trend.aspx">one-third</a> of Republicans were either unenthusiastic about his candidacy or outright hostile. Harris was not hugely popular, either. But if the polls were correct, she was just sufficiently <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/">less unpopular</a> than Trump.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Arguably undergirding Harris’s popularity advantage was …</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Observation three: In the 2022 midterm elections, abortion proved a powerful anti-Republican voting issue. That year in Michigan, a campaign based on abortion rights <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-michigan-gretchen-whitmer-9447ff560f7484ebe4c99bbd6c3b0300">helped reelect</a> Governor Gretchen Whitmer and flipped both chambers of the state legislature to the Democrats. That same year, almost a million Kansans voted <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment">59 percent to 41 percent</a> to reaffirm state-constitutional protections for abortion. Democrats posted strong results in many other states as well. They recovered a majority in the U.S. Senate, while Republicans won only the narrowest majority in the House of Representatives. In 2024, abortion-rights measures appeared on the ballot in 10 states, including must-win Arizona and Nevada. These initiatives seemed likely to energize many Americans who <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://www.guttmacher.org/2024/11/abortion-rights-state-ballot-measures-2024">would likely also cast</a> an anti-Trump vote for president.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">If that was not enough—and maybe it was not—I held onto this belief:</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Human beings are good at seeing through frauds. Not perfectly good at it. Not always as fast as might be. And not everybody. But a just-sufficient number of us, sooner or later, spot the con.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">The Trump campaign was trafficking in frauds. <i>Haitians are eating cats and dogs.</i> <i>Foreigners will pay for the tariffs.</i> <i>The Trump years were the good old days if you just forget about the coronavirus pandemic and the crime wave that happened on his watch.</i> The lying might work up to a point. I believed that the point would be found just on the right side of the line between election and defeat—and not, as happened instead, on the other side.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">My mistake.</p><p id="injected-recirculation-link-0" class="ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V" data-view-action="view link - injected link - item 1" data-event-element="injected link" data-event-position="1"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/pete-hegseth-books-trump/680744/">Read: Donald Trump’s most dangerous cabinet pick</a></p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">In one of the closest elections in modern American history, Trump eked out the first Republican popular-vote victory in 20 years. His margin was about a third the size of President Joe Biden’s margin over him in 2020. For that matter, on the votes counted, Trump’s popular-vote margin over Harris was smaller than Hillary Clinton’s over him in 2016.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Yet narrow as it is, a win it is—and a much different win from 2016. That time, Trump won by the rules, but against the expressed preference of the American people. This time, he won both by the rules and with a plurality of the votes. Trump’s popular win challenges many beliefs and preconceptions, starting with my own.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Through the first Trump administration, critics like me could reassure ourselves that his presidency was some kind of aberration. The repudiation of Trump’s party in the elections of 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 appeared to confirm this comforting assessment. The 2024 outcome upends it. Trump is no detour or deviation, no glitch or goof.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">When future generations of Americans tell the story of the nation, they will have to fit Trump into the main line of the story. And that means the story itself must be rethought.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Trump diverted millions of public dollars to his own businesses, and was returned to office anyway.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">He was proved in court to have committed sexual assault, and was returned to office anyway.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">He was twice impeached, and was returned to office anyway.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">He was convicted of felonies, and was returned to office anyway.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">He tried to overthrow an election, and was returned to office anyway.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">For millions of Americans, this record was disqualifying. For slightly more Americans, however, it was not. The latter group prevailed, and the United States will be a different country because of them.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">American politics has never lacked for scoundrels, cheats, and outright criminals. But their numbers have been thinned, and their misdeeds policed, by strong public institutions. Trump waged a relentless campaign against any and all rules that restrained him. He did not always prevail, but he did score three all-important successes. First, he frightened the Biden administration’s Justice Department away from holding him to account in courts of law in any timely way. Second, he persuaded the courts themselves—including, ultimately, the Supreme Court—to invent new doctrines of presidential immunity to shield him. Third, he broke all internal resistance within the Republican Party to his lawless actions. Republican officeholders, donors, and influencers who had once decried the January 6 attempted coup as utterly and permanently debarring—one by one, Trump brought them to heel.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Americans who cherished constitutional democracy were left to rely on the outcome of the 2024 election to protect their institutions against Trump. It was not enough. Elections are always about many different issues—first and foremost usually, economic well-being. In comparison, the health of U.S. democracy will always seem remote and abstract to most voters.</p><p id="injected-recirculation-link-1" class="ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V" data-view-action="view link - injected link - item 2" data-event-element="injected link" data-event-position="2"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/trumps-first-defeat/680748/">Read: Trump’s first defeat</a></p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Early in the American Revolution, a young Alexander Hamilton wrote to his friend John Jay to condemn an act of vigilante violence against the publisher of a pro-British newspaper. Hamilton sympathized with the feelings of the vigilantes, but even in revolutionary times, he insisted, feelings must be guided by rules. Otherwise, people are left to their own impulses, a formula for trouble. “It is not safe,” Hamilton <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-01-02-0060">warned</a>, “to trust to the virtue of any people.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">The outcome of an election must be respected, but its wisdom can be questioned. If any divine entity orders human affairs, it may be that Providence sent Trump to the United States to teach Americans humility. <i>It Can’t Happen Here</i> is the title of a famous 1930s <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://bookshop.org/p/books/it-can-t-happen-here/18894940?ean=9780451465641">novel</a> about an imagined future in which the United States follows the path to authoritarianism. Because it didn’t happen then, many Americans have taken for granted that it could not happen now.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">Perhaps Americans require, every once in a while, to be jolted out of the complacency learned from their mostly fortunate history. The nation that ratified the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 was, in important ways, the same one that enacted the Fugitive Slave Act in 1850; the nation that generously sent Marshall Plan aid after the Second World War was compensating for the myopic selfishness of the Neutrality Acts before the war. Americans can take pride in their national story because they have chosen rightly more often than they have chosen wrongly—but the wrong choices are part of the story too, and the wrong choice has been made again now.</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">“There is no such thing as a Lost Cause because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause,” T. S. Eliot <a data-event-element="inline link" href="https://tseliot.com/prose/francis-herbert-bradley">observed</a> in a 1927 essay (here he was writing about the arguments between philosophical Utilitarians and their critics, but his words apply so much more generally). “We fight for lost causes because we know that our defeat and dismay may be the preface to our successors’ victory, though that victory itself will be temporary; we fight rather to keep something alive than in the expectation that anything will triumph.”</p><p class="ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW" data-flatplan-paragraph="true">So the ancient struggle resumes again: progress against reaction, dignity against domination, commerce against predation, stewardship against spoliation, global responsibility against national chauvinism. No quitting.</p><div class="ArticleBody_divider__GpNxD" id="article-end"></div></section><div data-event-module="footer"><div class="ArticleWell_root__fueCa"><div data-event-module="author footer" class="ArticleFooter_authorFooter__5NsdY"><div class="SectionHeading_root__3GnqT"><h3 class="SectionHeading_heading__iNkek">About the Author</h3></div><div><div class="ArticleBio_root__ua8zj"><address id="article-writer-0" class="ArticleBio_author__6pDyl" data-event-element="author" data-event-position="1" data-flatplan-bio="true"><div class="ArticleBio_content__O0ZVF"><a class="ArticleBio_headshotContainer__Am2nR" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-event-element="image"><img alt="" loading="lazy" class="Image_root__XxsOp Image_lazy__hYWHV ArticleBio_headshot__6Aykd" src="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg" width="60" height="60"/></a><div class="ArticleBio_bioSection__Hef4P"><div data-flatplan-bio="true"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" class="author-link" data-label="https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/" data-action="click author - name" >David Frum</a> is a staff writer at <em>The Atlantic</em>.</div><div class="ArticleBio_moreStories__LKpwT"><p class="ArticleBio_contentHeading__cmbmT">More Stories</p><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-wins-second-term-presidency/680546/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="1"><p>Trump Won. Now What?</p></a><a class="ArticleBio_storyLink__xuRiU" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/american-republic-trump-threat/680501/" data-event-element="more stories" data-event-position="2"><p>No One Has an Alibi</p></a></div></div></div></address></div></div></div><div class="ArticleTags_root__zS_pT"><div class="ArticleTags_tagTitle__WjjAt">Explore More Topics</div><div><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/organization/democratic-party/">Democratic Party</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/person/kamala-harris/">Kamala Harris</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/organization/republican-party/">Republican Party</a>, </span><span class="ArticleTags_tagLink__SZysG"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/tag/general/abortion/">abortion</a></span></div></div></div><div></div></div><gpt-ad class="GptAd_root__pAvcS ArticleInjector_root__I7x9v s-native s-native--standard s-native--streamline" format="injector" sizes-at-0="mobile-wide,native,house" targeting-pos="injector-most-popular" sizes-at-976="desktop-wide,native,house"></gpt-ad><div class="ArticleInjector_clsAvoider__dqIAm"></div></article><div></div></main><div></div><div></div></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"isLoggedIn":false,"hasPaywallAccess":false,"hasAdFree":false,"pageProps":{"id":"BlogArticle:680743","isTnfCompatible":true,"layout":"twocol","hasMeter":true,"url":"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/good-country-bad-choice/680743/","dateModified":"2024-11-22T18:05:14Z","__typename":"BlogArticle","notFound":false,"urqlState":{"1347944269":{"data":"{\"article\":{\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\",\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680743\",\"authors\":[{\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\",\"displayName\":\"David Frum\",\"__typename\":\"Author\",\"id\":\"Author:1614\",\"biography\":{\"default\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\\\" class=\\\"author-link\\\" data-label=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/author/david-frum/\\\" data-action=\\\"click author - name\\\" \u003eDavid Frum\u003c/a\u003e is a staff writer at \u003cem\u003eThe Atlantic\u003c/em\u003e.\",\"__typename\":\"Biography\"},\"headshot\":{\"width\":120,\"height\":120,\"srcSet\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg, https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/rSV8fUGUSx7L6DhTWr9EjA2Oj7E=/0x68:577x645/240x240/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg 2x\",\"url\":\"https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9qVxjd1rR7wK1q_hBguLaqQXEc0=/0x68:577x645/120x120/media/None/fullsizeoutput_22-1/original.jpg\",\"__typename\":\"BasicImage\"},\"river\":{\"edges\":[{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0yMiAwNzowMDowMHw2ODA3NDM=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680743\",\"title\":\"A Good Country’s Bad Choice\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/good-country-bad-choice/680743/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0wNiAwNTo0NTowMHw2ODA1NDY=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680546\",\"title\":\"Trump Won. Now What?\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-wins-second-term-presidency/680546/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"},{\"cursor\":\"MjAyNC0xMS0wMyAwODowMDowMHw2ODA1MDE=\",\"node\":{\"id\":\"BlogArticle:680501\",\"title\":\"No One Has an Alibi\",\"url\":\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/american-republic-trump-threat/680501/\",\"__typename\":\"BlogArticle\"},\"__typename\":\"PromoEdge\"}],\"__typename\":\"RiverConnection\"},\"slug\":\"david-frum\",\"socialMedia\":[{\"platform\":\"TWITTER\",\"url\":\"https://twitter.com/davidfrum\",\"__typename\":\"SocialMedia\"}]}],\"authorContext\":\"\",\"categories\":[{\"slug\":\"top-20\",\"__typename\":\"Category\"},{\"slug\":\"top-40\",\"__typename\":\"Category\"},{\"slug\":\"top-60\",\"__typename\":\"Category\"}],\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ArticleLegacyHtml\",\"tagName\":\"DIV\",\"idAttr\":\"\",\"className\":\"\",\"style\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003cp data-flatplan-paragraph=\\\"true\\\"\u003e\u003csmall\u003e\u003ci\u003eSign up for \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/sign-up/the-decision-a-2024-newsletter/\\\"\u003eThe Decision\u003c/a\u003e, a newsletter featuring coverage of the 2024 race and what comes next.\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/small\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Once she became the nominee, I expected Vice President Kamala Harris to win the 2024 presidential election.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"More exactly, I expected ex-President Donald Trump to lose.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"What did I get wrong?\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"My expectation was based on three observations and one belief.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Observation one: Inflation was coming under control in 2024. Personal incomes \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1BAhk\\\"\u003erose faster\u003c/a\u003e than prices over the year. As interest rates peaked and began to subside, consumer confidence \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/\\\"\u003eclimbed\u003c/a\u003e. When asked about their personal finances, Americans expressed qualms, yes, but the number who rated their personal finances as excellent or good was a solid \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://news.gallup.com/poll/644690/americans-continue-name-inflation-top-financial-problem.aspx\\\"\u003e46 percent\u003c/a\u003e, higher than in the year President Barack Obama won reelection. The same voters who complained about the national economy \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/october-2023-poll/\\\"\u003erated\u003c/a\u003e their local economy much more favorably.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"None of this was great news for the incumbent party, and yet …\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Observation two: All through the 2024 cycle, a majority of Americans \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/\\\"\u003eexpressed\u003c/a\u003e an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Almost \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://news.gallup.com/poll/652427/trump-harris-favorability-low-end-year-trend.aspx\\\"\u003eone-third\u003c/a\u003e of Republicans were either unenthusiastic about his candidacy or outright hostile. Harris was not hugely popular, either. But if the polls were correct, she was just sufficiently \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/\\\"\u003eless unpopular\u003c/a\u003e than Trump.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Arguably undergirding Harris’s popularity advantage was …\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Observation three: In the 2022 midterm elections, abortion proved a powerful anti-Republican voting issue. That year in Michigan, a campaign based on abortion rights \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-michigan-gretchen-whitmer-9447ff560f7484ebe4c99bbd6c3b0300\\\"\u003ehelped reelect\u003c/a\u003e Governor Gretchen Whitmer and flipped both chambers of the state legislature to the Democrats. That same year, almost a million Kansans voted \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment\\\"\u003e59 percent to 41 percent\u003c/a\u003e to reaffirm state-constitutional protections for abortion. Democrats posted strong results in many other states as well. They recovered a majority in the U.S. Senate, while Republicans won only the narrowest majority in the House of Representatives. In 2024, abortion-rights measures appeared on the ballot in 10 states, including must-win Arizona and Nevada. These initiatives seemed likely to energize many Americans who \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://www.guttmacher.org/2024/11/abortion-rights-state-ballot-measures-2024\\\"\u003ewould likely also cast\u003c/a\u003e an anti-Trump vote for president.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"If that was not enough—and maybe it was not—I held onto this belief:\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Human beings are good at seeing through frauds. Not perfectly good at it. Not always as fast as might be. And not everybody. But a just-sufficient number of us, sooner or later, spot the con.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"The Trump campaign was trafficking in frauds. \u003ci\u003eHaitians are eating cats and dogs.\u003c/i\u003e \u003ci\u003eForeigners will pay for the tariffs.\u003c/i\u003e \u003ci\u003eThe Trump years were the good old days if you just forget about the coronavirus pandemic and the crime wave that happened on his watch.\u003c/i\u003e The lying might work up to a point. I believed that the point would be found just on the right side of the line between election and defeat—and not, as happened instead, on the other side.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"My mistake.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentLink\",\"idAttr\":\"injected-recirculation-link-0\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/pete-hegseth-books-trump/680744/\\\"\u003eRead: Donald Trump’s most dangerous cabinet pick\u003c/a\u003e\",\"index\":0},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"In one of the closest elections in modern American history, Trump eked out the first Republican popular-vote victory in 20 years. His margin was about a third the size of President Joe Biden’s margin over him in 2020. For that matter, on the votes counted, Trump’s popular-vote margin over Harris was smaller than Hillary Clinton’s over him in 2016.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Yet narrow as it is, a win it is—and a much different win from 2016. That time, Trump won by the rules, but against the expressed preference of the American people. This time, he won both by the rules and with a plurality of the votes. Trump’s popular win challenges many beliefs and preconceptions, starting with my own.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Through the first Trump administration, critics like me could reassure ourselves that his presidency was some kind of aberration. The repudiation of Trump’s party in the elections of 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 appeared to confirm this comforting assessment. The 2024 outcome upends it. Trump is no detour or deviation, no glitch or goof.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"When future generations of Americans tell the story of the nation, they will have to fit Trump into the main line of the story. And that means the story itself must be rethought.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Trump diverted millions of public dollars to his own businesses, and was returned to office anyway.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"He was proved in court to have committed sexual assault, and was returned to office anyway.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"He was twice impeached, and was returned to office anyway.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"He was convicted of felonies, and was returned to office anyway.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"He tried to overthrow an election, and was returned to office anyway.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"For millions of Americans, this record was disqualifying. For slightly more Americans, however, it was not. The latter group prevailed, and the United States will be a different country because of them.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"American politics has never lacked for scoundrels, cheats, and outright criminals. But their numbers have been thinned, and their misdeeds policed, by strong public institutions. Trump waged a relentless campaign against any and all rules that restrained him. He did not always prevail, but he did score three all-important successes. First, he frightened the Biden administration’s Justice Department away from holding him to account in courts of law in any timely way. Second, he persuaded the courts themselves—including, ultimately, the Supreme Court—to invent new doctrines of presidential immunity to shield him. Third, he broke all internal resistance within the Republican Party to his lawless actions. Republican officeholders, donors, and influencers who had once decried the January 6 attempted coup as utterly and permanently debarring—one by one, Trump brought them to heel.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Americans who cherished constitutional democracy were left to rely on the outcome of the 2024 election to protect their institutions against Trump. It was not enough. Elections are always about many different issues—first and foremost usually, economic well-being. In comparison, the health of U.S. democracy will always seem remote and abstract to most voters.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleRelatedContentLink\",\"idAttr\":\"injected-recirculation-link-1\",\"innerHtml\":\"\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/trumps-first-defeat/680748/\\\"\u003eRead: Trump’s first defeat\u003c/a\u003e\",\"index\":1},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Early in the American Revolution, a young Alexander Hamilton wrote to his friend John Jay to condemn an act of vigilante violence against the publisher of a pro-British newspaper. Hamilton sympathized with the feelings of the vigilantes, but even in revolutionary times, he insisted, feelings must be guided by rules. Otherwise, people are left to their own impulses, a formula for trouble. “It is not safe,” Hamilton \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-01-02-0060\\\"\u003ewarned\u003c/a\u003e, “to trust to the virtue of any people.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"The outcome of an election must be respected, but its wisdom can be questioned. If any divine entity orders human affairs, it may be that Providence sent Trump to the United States to teach Americans humility. \u003ci\u003eIt Can’t Happen Here\u003c/i\u003e is the title of a famous 1930s \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://bookshop.org/p/books/it-can-t-happen-here/18894940?ean=9780451465641\\\"\u003enovel\u003c/a\u003e about an imagined future in which the United States follows the path to authoritarianism. Because it didn’t happen then, many Americans have taken for granted that it could not happen now.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"Perhaps Americans require, every once in a while, to be jolted out of the complacency learned from their mostly fortunate history. The nation that ratified the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 was, in important ways, the same one that enacted the Fugitive Slave Act in 1850; the nation that generously sent Marshall Plan aid after the Second World War was compensating for the myopic selfishness of the Neutrality Acts before the war. Americans can take pride in their national story because they have chosen rightly more often than they have chosen wrongly—but the wrong choices are part of the story too, and the wrong choice has been made again now.\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"“There is no such thing as a Lost Cause because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause,” T. S. Eliot \u003ca data-event-element=\\\"inline link\\\" href=\\\"https://tseliot.com/prose/francis-herbert-bradley\\\"\u003eobserved\u003c/a\u003e in a 1927 essay (here he was writing about the arguments between philosophical Utilitarians and their critics, but his words apply so much more generally). “We fight for lost causes because we know that our defeat and dismay may be the preface to our successors’ victory, though that victory itself will be temporary; we fight rather to keep something alive than in the expectation that anything will triumph.”\"},{\"__typename\":\"ArticleParagraphContent\",\"subtype\":null,\"idAttr\":\"\",\"innerHtml\":\"So the ancient struggle resumes again: progress against reaction, dignity against domination, commerce against predation, stewardship against spoliation, global responsibility against national chauvinism. 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