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Een toekomstbestendige Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt | NL | Cushman & Wakefield
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toekomstbestendige Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt" src="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/stories/gemeente-amsterdam/casestudygemeenteamsterdamkantorenmarktheroimagesmall750x480.jpg?rev=d9824a021295441cbd02a252f915d25c" width="406" height="260"/> <img class="card-img-top d-none d-md-block image-resizing" alt="Een toekomstbestendige Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt" src="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/stories/gemeente-amsterdam/casestudygemeenteamsterdamheroimagelarge2352x1040.jpg?rev=d3e1bb487b4845cabbcea24c0dbddaed" width="1176" height="521"/> <div class="card-animation-block mix_primary" style=""></div> <div class="card-animation-block mix_secondary" style=""></div> </div> <div class="card-body" style=""> <p class="card-category">Case studies</p> <h1 class="card-title">Een toekomstbestendige Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt</h1> <div class="card-text rich-text">In evenwicht brengen van (toekomstig) kwantitatief overaanbod en (toekomstige) kwalitatieve schaarste in Amsterdam en op de Amsterdamse kantoorlocaties.</div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="container" style="" > <div> </div> <div> <div class="row"> <div class="indented"> <h2 class="hChapter"> <span class="hChapter-numeral">1</span> De Vraag </h2> <div class="rich-text"><p>De kantorenmarkt bevindt zich momenteel in een overgangsperiode. Enerzijds heeft de uitbraak van COVID-19 ertoe geleid dat hybride werken volledig omarmd is door kantoorhoudende organisaties. Anderzijds leiden de huidige onzekere marktomstandigheden als gevolg van de sterk gestegen bouwkosten, onzekerheid over de beschikbaarheid van materialen en prijsstijgingen tot een (mogelijk) negatief sentiment op de kantorenmarkt. Daarnaast spelen bredere, structurele ruimtelijk-economische en maatschappelijke opgaven een rol, zoals de ‘war for talent’, woningnood en verduurzaming die een effect hebben op de ontwikkeling van kantoren en de dynamiek op de kantorenmarkt.</p> <p>In dit licht heeft de Gemeente Amsterdam ons gevraagd de verwachte ontwikkelingen op de Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt te onderzoeken door de (mogelijke) effecten van de onzekere marktomstandigheden en het hybride werken inzichtelijk te maken, te kwantificeren en te onderbouwen om deze vervolgens te projecteren op de Amsterdamse context. Enerzijds betreft dit het toetsten van de beleidsmatige context:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/stories/gemeente-amsterdam/kantorenplan-2019-2026.pdf?rev=f17556fc79194b258c4aba901582b1dd&hash=D940D30B9F42955736AC4616F9441E60">Kantorenplan 2019-2026</a>: streefgetallen voor toevoeging van kantoren voor de belangrijkste Amsterdamse kantoorlocaties, waaronder Amstel, Centrum, Oost, Noord, Sloterdijk, West & Nieuw-West, Zuidas en Zuidoost.</li> <li><a href="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/stories/gemeente-amsterdam/kantorenstrategie-2017.pdf?rev=d5130552dd9945e4bd8e3998c88a29d0&hash=245D188B7E67D968C45C4C3997354A92">Kantorenstrategie 2017</a>: planvoorraad van kantoren van circa één miljoen m² voor Amsterdam.</li> </ul> <p>Anderzijds betreft dit het toetsen van de lokale context van lopende en toekomstige initiatieven in de werklocaties Zuidas, Zuidoost, Schinkelkwartier en Haven-Stad. </p> <div> </div></div> </div> </div><div class="row"> <div class="col-lg-8"> <h2 class="hChapter"> <span class="hChapter-numeral">2</span> De Aanpak </h2> <div class="rich-text"><p>Om de verwachte ontwikkelingen en toekomstbestendigheid van de Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt inzichtelijk te maken, is het van belang de definitie van een ‘kwaliteitskantoor’ te projecteren op de Amsterdamse kantorenmarktdynamiek, streefgetallen, planvoorraad en initiatieven in de vier kantoorlocaties. Dit uitgangspunt vormde de leidraad in ons voorgestelde plan van aanpak voor dit onderzoek. Om te bepalen of een kantoor zich kwalificeert als ‘kwaliteitskantoor’, heeft Cushman & Wakefield een kanslabel ontwikkeld dat de kwaliteit (ofwel: kans op ingebruikname) per kantoor uitdrukt in een score.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Deze kanslabels zijn, samen met onze vastgoedmarktdata, ingezet om de beleidsdocumenten en lokale lopende en toekomstige initiatieven, te toetsen. Hierbij zijn de volgende analyses uitgevoerd:</span></p> <ul> <li><span style="font-size: 1rem;"></span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Kwalitatieve kantorenmarktanalyse: inventariseren van kwalitatieve trends en ontwikkelingen op de post-COVID kantorenmarkt om deze vervolgens te projecteren op de Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt om de effecten hiervan te simuleren en kwantificeren. </span></li> <li>Kwantitatieve kantorenmarktanalyse: simuleren van de vraagraming voor de Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt en kantoorlocaties en bepalen van de bijbehorende benodigde planvoorraad om deze vervolgens te confronteren met de streefgetallen en planvoorraad uit de beleidsmatige context om deze op houdbaarheid te toetsen.</li> <li>Kantoorlocatie-analyse: vertalen van de uitkomsten van de vorige analyses naar de vier kantoorlocaties om lopende en toekomstige initiatieven ten aanzien van kantoorontwikkelingen te toetsen op haalbaarheid. </li> </ul> <div> </div> <p> </p></div> </div> <div class="col-lg-4"> <div class="imageWithCaption"> <img class="imageWithCaption-img d-none d-md-block" alt="Een toekomstbestendige Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt" aria-describedby="caption" src="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/stories/gemeente-amsterdam/casestudygemeenteamsterdamkantorenmarktafbeeldingstaand710x1000.jpg?rev=1f27483959724b55b4c166fb2f737e72" loading = "lazy" width="356" height="552"/> </div> </div> </div><div class="row"> <div class="indented"> <h2 class="hChapter"> <span class="hChapter-numeral">3</span> Het Resultaat </h2> <div class="rich-text"><p>Het onderzoek dat wij uitgevoerd hebben, heeft de Gemeente Amsterdam de volgende resultaten gegeven:</p> <ol> <li>Inzicht in hoe de post-COVID kantorenmarkt zich in Nederland en Amsterdam zal bewegen.</li> <li>Toetsing van de houdbaarheid van de twee bestuurlijke beleidsdocumenten (Kantorenplan en Kantorenstrategie) op basis van de planvoorraad van circa één miljoen m² (Kantorenstrategie) en streefgetallen per kantoorlocatie (Kantorenplan), waarbij het tekort dan wel overschot voor de gehele Amsterdamse kantorenmarket en per kantoorlocaties is berekend. </li> <li>Aanbevelingen ten aanzien van lopende en toekomstige initiatieven voor de kantoorontwikkelingen in de vier kantoorlocaties.</li> </ol> <p>De onderzoeksresultaten dienden als input voor de Monitor Kantoren Amsterdam, die in het najaar van 2022 aan het bestuur is aangeboden, alsmede voor het mogelijk herijken en/of vernieuwen van de Kantorenstrategie en het Kantorenplan.</p> <div> </div> <p> </p></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container-fluid mix_extraLightGrey mix_lined"> <div class="carousel mix_testimonials js-slickTestimonialCarousel"> <div class="testimonial"> <h3 class="testimonial-headline">Quote opdrachtgever</h3> <h2 class="testimonial-quote">"Het kantorenbeleid van de gemeente Amsterdam is al jaren gericht op het kwantitatief en kwalitatief in balans brengen van vraag en aanbod en het terugdringen van de leegstand van kantoren. Het beleid is succesvol gebleken: de leegstand daalde van 18% in 2015 naar 5,8% in 2022. Er is veel getransformeerd, waardoor onder andere veel nieuwe woningen zijn gerealiseerd. Amsterdam hecht grote waarde aan monitoring van de kantorenmarkt en gebruikt hiervoor meerdere zowel interne als externe bronnen. Hierbij is het belangrijk om niet alleen terug te kijken naar het verleden, maar ook een doorkijk te geven naar de toekomst van de kantorenmarkt in een economie die mogelijk in een recessie raakt. Het onderzoek van Cushman & Wakefield heeft voor ons inzichtelijk gemaakt wat de verwachte ontwikkelingen zijn op de Amsterdamse kantorenmarkt en scenario´s gesimuleerd die vervolgens zijn geconfronteerd met het huidige kantorenbeleid. De uitkomsten van het onderzoek zijn gedeeld met de gemeenteraad en leiden mogelijk tot het actualiseren van het kantorenbeleid van de gemeente Amsterdam. "</h2> <h3 class="testimonial-person">Cengiz Caglar - kantorenloods en transformatieregisseur, gemeente Amsterdam</h3> <p class="testimonial-person-job-title"></p> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="container-fluid" style="" > <section class="container"> <h2 class='container-headline mix_align-center'>Ontmoet het team</h2> <div class="js-slickCarousel"> <div> <div class="card mix_person " onclick="location.href='/nl-nl/netherlands/people/laurens-van-der-schoor';"> <a href="/nl-nl/netherlands/people/laurens-van-der-schoor"> <img class="card-img-top image-resizing h-auto" alt="Laurens van der Schoor" src="https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/emea/netherlands/people/laurens-van-der-schoor.jpg?rev=861fa455c0f84b06a0f4a35f9e8bf08c" width="564" height="343"/> </a> <div class="card-body"> <h6 class="font-weight-bold"><a href="/nl-nl/netherlands/people/laurens-van-der-schoor">Laurens van der Schoor</a></h6> <p class="card-text mt-3"> <span 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