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class="js-profile-view-count"></span></p></div></span></div><div class="suggested-academics-container"><div class="suggested-academics--header"><p class="ds2-5-body-md-bold">Related Authors</p></div><ul class="suggested-user-card-list"><div class="suggested-user-card"><div class="suggested-user-card__avatar social-profile-avatar-container"><a href="https://ukma.academia.edu/AndreasUmland"><img class="profile-avatar u-positionAbsolute" alt="Andreas Umland" border="0" onerror="if (this.src != '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png') this.src = '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png';" width="200" height="200" src="https://0.academia-photos.com/25359/8207/35842203/s200_andreas.umland.jpg" /></a></div><div class="suggested-user-card__user-info"><a class="suggested-user-card__user-info__header ds2-5-body-sm-bold ds2-5-body-link" href="https://ukma.academia.edu/AndreasUmland">Andreas Umland</a><p class="suggested-user-card__user-info__subheader ds2-5-body-xs">National 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Dr.)</a><p class="suggested-user-card__user-info__subheader ds2-5-body-xs">Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Turkey</p></div></div><div class="suggested-user-card"><div class="suggested-user-card__avatar social-profile-avatar-container"><a href="https://su-se.academia.edu/ViacheslavKuleshov"><img class="profile-avatar u-positionAbsolute" alt="Viacheslav Kuleshov" border="0" onerror="if (this.src != '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png') this.src = '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png';" width="200" height="200" src="https://0.academia-photos.com/1895779/1756649/18990341/s200_viacheslav.kuleshov.jpg" /></a></div><div class="suggested-user-card__user-info"><a class="suggested-user-card__user-info__header ds2-5-body-sm-bold ds2-5-body-link" href="https://su-se.academia.edu/ViacheslavKuleshov">Viacheslav Kuleshov</a><p class="suggested-user-card__user-info__subheader ds2-5-body-xs">Stockholm University</p></div></div><div class="suggested-user-card"><div class="suggested-user-card__avatar social-profile-avatar-container"><a href="https://sav-sk.academia.edu/JurajMaru%C5%A1iak"><img class="profile-avatar u-positionAbsolute" alt="Juraj Marušiak" border="0" onerror="if (this.src != '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png') this.src = '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png';" width="200" height="200" src="https://0.academia-photos.com/1906843/644741/799416/s200_juraj.maru_iak.jpg" /></a></div><div class="suggested-user-card__user-info"><a class="suggested-user-card__user-info__header ds2-5-body-sm-bold ds2-5-body-link" href="https://sav-sk.academia.edu/JurajMaru%C5%A1iak">Juraj Marušiak</a><p class="suggested-user-card__user-info__subheader ds2-5-body-xs">Slovak Academy of Sciences</p></div></div><div class="suggested-user-card"><div class="suggested-user-card__avatar social-profile-avatar-container"><a href="https://ostrava.academia.edu/KaterinaRudincova"><img class="profile-avatar u-positionAbsolute" alt="Katerina Rudincova" border="0" onerror="if (this.src != '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png') this.src = '//a.academia-assets.com/images/s200_no_pic.png';" width="200" height="200" src="https://0.academia-photos.com/3817305/6925947/7812402/s200_katerina.rudincova.jpg" /></a></div><div class="suggested-user-card__user-info"><a class="suggested-user-card__user-info__header ds2-5-body-sm-bold ds2-5-body-link" href="https://ostrava.academia.edu/KaterinaRudincova">Katerina Rudincova</a><p class="suggested-user-card__user-info__subheader ds2-5-body-xs">University of Ostrava</p></div></div></ul></div><div class="ri-section"><div class="ri-section-header"><span>Interests</span></div><div class="ri-tags-container"><a data-click-track="profile-user-info-expand-research-interests" data-has-card-for-ri-list="54427240" href="https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Enlargement_and_Integration_in_the_EU"><div id="js-react-on-rails-context" style="display:none" 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data-dom-id="Pill-react-component-e6142238-c145-4a81-9cf7-4f591325b03d"></div> <div id="Pill-react-component-e6142238-c145-4a81-9cf7-4f591325b03d"></div> </a><a data-click-track="profile-user-info-expand-research-interests" data-has-card-for-ri-list="54427240" href="https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Heraldry_and_Vexillology"><div class="js-react-on-rails-component" style="display:none" data-component-name="Pill" data-props="{"color":"gray","children":["Heraldry and Vexillology"]}" data-trace="false" data-dom-id="Pill-react-component-1c5fc9dd-7154-41e0-adb6-3823fc048265"></div> <div id="Pill-react-component-1c5fc9dd-7154-41e0-adb6-3823fc048265"></div> </a><a data-click-track="profile-user-info-expand-research-interests" data-has-card-for-ri-list="54427240" href="https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Visual_propaganda"><div class="js-react-on-rails-component" style="display:none" data-component-name="Pill" data-props="{"color":"gray","children":["Visual propaganda"]}" data-trace="false" data-dom-id="Pill-react-component-fb83db3e-9240-424b-978a-c2f186a0c9ec"></div> <div id="Pill-react-component-fb83db3e-9240-424b-978a-c2f186a0c9ec"></div> </a></div></div></div></div><div class="right-panel-container"><div class="user-content-wrapper"><div class="uploads-container" id="social-redesign-work-container"><div class="upload-header"><h2 class="ds2-5-heading-sans-serif-xs">Uploads</h2></div><div class="documents-container backbone-social-profile-documents" style="width: 100%;"><div class="u-taCenter"></div><div class="profile--tab_content_container js-tab-pane tab-pane active" id="all"><div class="profile--tab_heading_container js-section-heading" data-section="Papers" id="Papers"><h3 class="profile--tab_heading_container">Papers by Frank Zagare</h3></div><div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="114937439"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/114937439/1_Introduction"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of 1 Introduction" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/114937439/1_Introduction">1 Introduction</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Lynne Rienner Publishers eBooks</span><span>, Dec 31, 1987</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="114937439"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" 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$(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="105068681"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/105068681/Article_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the_Cuban_Missile_Crisis"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/104624672/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/105068681/Article_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the_Cuban_Missile_Crisis">Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dy...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. All of the explanations were judged to be either incomplete or deficient in some way. Schelling's explanation is both empirically and theoretically inconsistent with the consensus interpretation of the crisis; Howard's with the contemporary understanding of rational strategic behavior; and Brams' with the full sweep of the events that define the crisis. The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="4443fbe3468fe35681ed78cf748ca41d" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":104624672,"asset_id":105068681,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/104624672/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="105068681"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="105068681"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 105068681; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=105068681]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=105068681]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 105068681; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='105068681']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 105068681, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "4443fbe3468fe35681ed78cf748ca41d" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=105068681]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":105068681,"title":"Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. 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In 1967 the University founded the Center for International Conflict Studies. Directed by Glenn H. Snyder, the Center&#39;s focus was on negotiation and bargaining. The Center produced one major work, Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing&#39;s Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Published in 1977 by Princeton University Press, this classic contribution remains relevant today. It was republished by Princeton in 2015. The theory of interstate crisis developed in Conflict Among Nations tested a number of deductive theories and models using sixteen case studies, some of which were themselves book length, written by five faculty members, one research associate, ...</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="90622126"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="90622126"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 90622126; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=90622126]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=90622126]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 90622126; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='90622126']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 90622126, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=90622126]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":90622126,"title":"The Deterrence Project","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"The study of interstate conflict, in general, and crises in particular, has a long and distinguished history at the University at Buffalo, not only in the department of political science, but in the departments of psychology, history, philosophy, and anthropology as well. 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Published in 1977 by Princeton University Press, this classic contribution remains relevant today. It was republished by Princeton in 2015. 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Edited by Jacek Kugler and Frank C. Zagare. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 1987. 168p. $18.00" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/84071448/Exploring_the_Stability_of_Deterrence_Edited_by_Jacek_Kugler_and_Frank_C_Zagare_Boulder_Lynne_Reinner_1987_168p_18_00">Exploring the Stability of Deterrence. Edited by Jacek Kugler and Frank C. Zagare. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 1987. 168p. $18.00</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>American Political Science Review</span><span>, 1988</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="84071448"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="84071448"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 84071448; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=84071448]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=84071448]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 84071448; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='84071448']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 84071448, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=84071448]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":84071448,"title":"Exploring the Stability of Deterrence. 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United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C. ZAGARE Department of Political Science ...","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":797,"name":"International Relations","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/International_Relations"},{"id":4486,"name":"Political Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Political_Science"},{"id":8208,"name":"Rational Choice","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Rational_Choice"},{"id":75647,"name":"Interactions","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Interactions"}],"urls":[{"id":21006468,"url":"http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629008434729"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="80482986"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/80482986/The_long_term_stability_of_deterrence"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of The long‐term stability of deterrence" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/86849232/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/80482986/The_long_term_stability_of_deterrence">The long‐term stability of deterrence</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>International Interactions</span><span>, 1990</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic an...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision-making variables. After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to develop a theory of the necessary and sufficient conditions of major power war and conflict initiation. In other words, for the first time, we are able to specify, precisely, the theoretical consequences of variations in power dynamics, evaluations of the status quo, salience, and attitudes toward risk. As theories of the necessary conditions for international conflict, neither the power transition theory nor the expected utility model provide this information. Thus, by combining and then extending these two frameworks, we merely refine propositions implicit in each of them, making them more exact. 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After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to develop a theory of the necessary and sufficient conditions of major power war and conflict initiation. In other words, for the first time, we are able to specify, precisely, the theoretical consequences of variations in power dynamics, evaluations of the status quo, salience, and attitudes toward risk. As theories of the necessary conditions for international conflict, neither the power transition theory nor the expected utility model provide this information. Thus, by combining and then extending these two frameworks, we merely refine propositions implicit in each of them, making them more exact. 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After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to develop a theory of the necessary and sufficient conditions of major power war and conflict initiation. In other words, for the first time, we are able to specify, precisely, the theoretical consequences of variations in power dynamics, evaluations of the status quo, salience, and attitudes toward risk. As theories of the necessary conditions for international conflict, neither the power transition theory nor the expected utility model provide this information. Thus, by combining and then extending these two frameworks, we merely refine propositions implicit in each of them, making them more exact. The resulting structure provides several additional insights into the dynamics of nuclear conflict.","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[{"id":86849232,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/86849232/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"The_20LongTerm_20Stability_20of_20Deterrence.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/86849232/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"The_long_term_stability_of_deterrence.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/86849232/The_20LongTerm_20Stability_20of_20Deterrence-libre.pdf?1654118489=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DThe_long_term_stability_of_deterrence.pdf\u0026Expires=1737548902\u0026Signature=Q3pngyTomI436gxRCbk6r70bqy-MrkqhJ1IQGqZhUQQhh39FOsE0S2ZG9Fb9X563qtcWSy84mRk~YhRT2zYNvM-jW3YVTlo7eDGnKC3kavUOyYvdHXQthfd0socCIy4MsDFJ14sTHVq6IoUitLIDZij1YYuAZoZef4wEmr86az88c2y8eYnXzpef-v6KjneY4Z7S87MmSWT241hHe39GaH1FMDDdaa-BIMzOZ9sTV5SjXIwx7wdWTh3XpEKaR27lk80gnfLRUhU8ENbgzGDZazkCRjCojyTljqXZS8tjM0dBU~XgMo~Ri-Uj9e869XD5~Ot0Vhck1ZA~Ti2675lfIQ__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":724,"name":"Economics","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Economics"},{"id":1681,"name":"Decision Making","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Decision_Making"},{"id":4486,"name":"Political Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Political_Science"},{"id":75647,"name":"Interactions","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Interactions"},{"id":227316,"name":"Expected Utility","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Expected_Utility"}],"urls":[{"id":21006429,"url":"http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629008434733"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="74579835"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/74579835/Game_Theory_and_Other_Modeling_Approaches"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Game Theory and Other Modeling Approaches" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/82682322/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/74579835/Game_Theory_and_Other_Modeling_Approaches">Game Theory and Other Modeling Approaches</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. It has been used in the field of inter...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. It has been used in the field of international relations (IR) for over 50 years. Almost all of the early applications of game theory in international relations drew upon the theory of zero-sum games, but the first generation of applications was also developed during the most intense period of the Cold War. The theoretical foundations for the second wave of the game theory literature in international relations were laid by a mathematician, John Nash, a co-recipient of the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics. His major achievement was to generalize the minimax solution which emerged from the first wave. The result is the now famous Nash equilibrium—the accepted measure of rational behavior in strategic form games. During the third wave, from roughly the early to mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, there was a distinct move away from static strategic form games toward dynamic games depicted in extensive form. The assumption of complete infor...</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="ee132e1f492dc179369fd30bd86513ce" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":82682322,"asset_id":74579835,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/82682322/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="74579835"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="74579835"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 74579835; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=74579835]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=74579835]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 74579835; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='74579835']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 74579835, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "ee132e1f492dc179369fd30bd86513ce" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=74579835]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":74579835,"title":"Game Theory and Other Modeling Approaches","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. 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The assumption of complete infor...","publisher":"Oxford University Press","publication_name":"Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies"},"translated_abstract":"Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. It has been used in the field of international relations (IR) for over 50 years. Almost all of the early applications of game theory in international relations drew upon the theory of zero-sum games, but the first generation of applications was also developed during the most intense period of the Cold War. The theoretical foundations for the second wave of the game theory literature in international relations were laid by a mathematician, John Nash, a co-recipient of the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics. His major achievement was to generalize the minimax solution which emerged from the first wave. The result is the now famous Nash equilibrium—the accepted measure of rational behavior in strategic form games. 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By Mesquita Bruce Bueno de. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981. Pp. ix + 223. $24.00.)" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/54033956/The_War_Trap_By_Mesquita_Bruce_Bueno_de_New_Haven_Conn_Yale_University_Press_1981_Pp_ix_223_24_00_">The War Trap. By Mesquita Bruce Bueno de. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981. Pp. ix + 223. $24.00.)</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>American Political Science Review</span><span>, 1982</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="54033956"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="54033956"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 54033956; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=54033956]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=54033956]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 54033956; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='54033956']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 54033956, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=54033956]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":54033956,"title":"The War Trap. By Mesquita Bruce Bueno de. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981. 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TO TISH This one\u0026#39;s for you. ... and sup-port: my mother, Jen, and my father, Dom, who have been with me every step of the way; my children, Catherine, Ann, and Elizabeth, who provided me with a unique perspective on the dynamics of deterrence; and my wife, Patty, my silent ...","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":4486,"name":"Political Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Political_Science"}],"urls":[]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="54033949"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/54033949/PSC_346_Individuals_and_World_Politics"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of PSC 346: Individuals and World Politics" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/54033949/PSC_346_Individuals_and_World_Politics">PSC 346: Individuals and World Politics</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="54033949"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="54033949"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 54033949; 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In the early stages of the crisis the action choices of the players were shown to be consistent with the players’ beliefs, but their beliefs were not tested. In the final phase, beliefs and action choices were brought into harmony. British support of France during the conference that ended the crisis, the firm stand that France took at the conference, and the German decision to press for a conference is explained in terms of the model’s principal variables. The explanation derived from the model is not necessarily at odds with consensus historical interpretations of the Moroccan crisis. Nonetheless, it offers several advantages over standard, largely atheoretical or ad hoc descriptions. One clear advantage is the convenient framework the model provides for organizing information about ...</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="54033947"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="54033947"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 54033947; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=54033947]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=54033947]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 54033947; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='54033947']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 54033947, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=54033947]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":54033947,"title":"The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–1906: An Analytic Narrative","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"This paper interprets the Moroccan crisis of 1905–1906 in the context of an incomplete information game model, the Tripartite Crisis game, and one of its proper subgames, the Defender-Protégé subgame. 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$(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="105068681"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/105068681/Article_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the_Cuban_Missile_Crisis"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/104624672/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/105068681/Article_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the_Cuban_Missile_Crisis">Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dy...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. All of the explanations were judged to be either incomplete or deficient in some way. Schelling's explanation is both empirically and theoretically inconsistent with the consensus interpretation of the crisis; Howard's with the contemporary understanding of rational strategic behavior; and Brams' with the full sweep of the events that define the crisis. The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="4443fbe3468fe35681ed78cf748ca41d" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":104624672,"asset_id":105068681,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/104624672/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="105068681"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="105068681"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 105068681; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=105068681]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=105068681]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 105068681; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='105068681']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 105068681, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "4443fbe3468fe35681ed78cf748ca41d" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=105068681]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":105068681,"title":"Article A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis","translated_title":"","metadata":{"grobid_abstract":"This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. 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The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[{"id":104624672,"title":"","file_type":"pdf","scribd_thumbnail_url":"https://attachments.academia-assets.com/104624672/thumbnails/1.jpg","file_name":"pdf.pdf","download_url":"https://www.academia.edu/attachments/104624672/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&","bulk_download_file_name":"Article_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the.pdf","bulk_download_url":"https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/104624672/pdf-libre.pdf?1690723552=\u0026response-content-disposition=attachment%3B+filename%3DArticle_A_Game_Theoretic_History_of_the.pdf\u0026Expires=1737548901\u0026Signature=AcyOLe3Yxm9mFU5tSmRcaKqndQZLu8D~ScQnD0mZwQMG6UiUw5JqqprGnJEL8rLACfypiF7q3BR328Vv7b94dsTtvGyd8-xdI8FolhNYDsh~CgO6nxAqvegTkX1uM-FeEItNeaQ4nolsPlDHjSpz-zWdyNgqX2zcprasfP6DwBn2yw76YMGLO7DuUtoAUFjQxkRtEXLMDkL~JgQgupeuimLg~MZ7tq5bYoo~WIxQXV4R~SGIqsRp0MzNdTwq9p2q3-RMbYtuSD6cw-QKGoIcyxomz4DLODCfOoqqafqHARqqC2CVOpd2puhPYrrEfjvdedmXIPaqRkYwTajVsHStyg__\u0026Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA"}],"research_interests":[{"id":757,"name":"Game Theory","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Game_Theory"},{"id":105459,"name":"Cuban Missile Crisis","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Cuban_Missile_Crisis"},{"id":516633,"name":"DOI","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/DOI"},{"id":534864,"name":"Economies","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Economies"}],"urls":[{"id":33147250,"url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.660.6026\u0026rep=rep1\u0026type=pdf"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="90622126"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/90622126/The_Deterrence_Project"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of The Deterrence Project" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/90622126/The_Deterrence_Project">The Deterrence Project</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">The study of interstate conflict, in general, and crises in particular, has a long and distinguis...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">The study of interstate conflict, in general, and crises in particular, has a long and distinguished history at the University at Buffalo, not only in the department of political science, but in the departments of psychology, history, philosophy, and anthropology as well. In 1967 the University founded the Center for International Conflict Studies. Directed by Glenn H. Snyder, the Center&#39;s focus was on negotiation and bargaining. The Center produced one major work, Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing&#39;s Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Published in 1977 by Princeton University Press, this classic contribution remains relevant today. It was republished by Princeton in 2015. 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All Mortis, No Rigor 109 Page 4. because ...","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":4370,"name":"Security","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Security"},{"id":4486,"name":"Political Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Political_Science"},{"id":119168,"name":"Public Policy and Administration","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Public_Policy_and_Administration"},{"id":3261422,"name":"Rigor Mortis","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Rigor_Mortis"}],"urls":[{"id":21006471,"url":"https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016228899560185"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="80483080"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/80483080/Rational_choice_models_and_international_relations_research"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of Rational choice models and international relations research" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/80483080/Rational_choice_models_and_international_relations_research">Rational choice models and international relations research</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>International Interactions</span><span>, 1990</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">... United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C....</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">... United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C. ZAGARE Department of Political Science ...</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="80483080"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="80483080"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 80483080; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=80483080]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=80483080]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 80483080; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='80483080']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 80483080, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (false){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "-1" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=80483080]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":80483080,"title":"Rational choice models and international relations research","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"... United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C. ZAGARE Department of Political Science ...","publisher":"Informa UK Limited","publication_date":{"day":null,"month":null,"year":1990,"errors":{}},"publication_name":"International Interactions"},"translated_abstract":"... United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C. ZAGARE Department of Political Science ...","internal_url":"https://www.academia.edu/80483080/Rational_choice_models_and_international_relations_research","translated_internal_url":"","created_at":"2022-06-01T14:08:11.305-07:00","preview_url":null,"current_user_can_edit":null,"current_user_is_owner":null,"owner_id":54427240,"coauthors_can_edit":true,"document_type":"paper","co_author_tags":[],"downloadable_attachments":[],"slug":"Rational_choice_models_and_international_relations_research","translated_slug":"","page_count":null,"language":"en","content_type":"Work","summary":"... United States of America RATIONAL CHOICE MODELS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH FRANK C. ZAGARE Department of Political Science ...","owner":{"id":54427240,"first_name":"Frank","middle_initials":"","last_name":"Zagare","page_name":"FrankZagare","domain_name":"independent","created_at":"2016-10-03T16:57:55.300-07:00","display_name":"Frank Zagare","url":"https://independent.academia.edu/FrankZagare"},"attachments":[],"research_interests":[{"id":797,"name":"International Relations","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/International_Relations"},{"id":4486,"name":"Political Science","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Political_Science"},{"id":8208,"name":"Rational Choice","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Rational_Choice"},{"id":75647,"name":"Interactions","url":"https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Interactions"}],"urls":[{"id":21006468,"url":"http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629008434729"}]}, dispatcherData: dispatcherData }); $(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="80482986"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" href="https://www.academia.edu/80482986/The_long_term_stability_of_deterrence"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of The long‐term stability of deterrence" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://attachments.academia-assets.com/86849232/thumbnails/1.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" href="https://www.academia.edu/80482986/The_long_term_stability_of_deterrence">The long‐term stability of deterrence</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>International Interactions</span><span>, 1990</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic an...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision-making variables. After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to develop a theory of the necessary and sufficient conditions of major power war and conflict initiation. In other words, for the first time, we are able to specify, precisely, the theoretical consequences of variations in power dynamics, evaluations of the status quo, salience, and attitudes toward risk. As theories of the necessary conditions for international conflict, neither the power transition theory nor the expected utility model provide this information. Thus, by combining and then extending these two frameworks, we merely refine propositions implicit in each of them, making them more exact. The resulting structure provides several additional insights into the dynamics of nuclear conflict.</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="fa91893c56c79e270c22423b9fa4b7b7" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":86849232,"asset_id":80482986,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/86849232/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="80482986"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="80482986"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 80482986; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=80482986]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=80482986]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 80482986; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='80482986']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 80482986, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "fa91893c56c79e270c22423b9fa4b7b7" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=80482986]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":80482986,"title":"The long‐term stability of deterrence","translated_title":"","metadata":{"publisher":"Informa UK Limited","grobid_abstract":"In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision-making variables. 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It has been used in the field of inter...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. It has been used in the field of international relations (IR) for over 50 years. Almost all of the early applications of game theory in international relations drew upon the theory of zero-sum games, but the first generation of applications was also developed during the most intense period of the Cold War. The theoretical foundations for the second wave of the game theory literature in international relations were laid by a mathematician, John Nash, a co-recipient of the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics. His major achievement was to generalize the minimax solution which emerged from the first wave. The result is the now famous Nash equilibrium—the accepted measure of rational behavior in strategic form games. During the third wave, from roughly the early to mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, there was a distinct move away from static strategic form games toward dynamic games depicted in extensive form. The assumption of complete infor...</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--actions"><span class="work-strip-bookmark-button-container"></span><a id="ee132e1f492dc179369fd30bd86513ce" class="wp-workCard--action" rel="nofollow" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-download" data-download="{"attachment_id":82682322,"asset_id":74579835,"asset_type":"Work","button_location":"profile"}" href="https://www.academia.edu/attachments/82682322/download_file?st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&st=MTczNzU0NTMwMiw4LjIyMi4yMDguMTQ2&s=profile"><span><i class="fa fa-arrow-down"></i></span><span>Download</span></a><span class="wp-workCard--action visible-if-viewed-by-owner inline-block" style="display: none;"><span class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper profile-work-strip-edit-button-wrapper" data-work-id="74579835"><a class="js-profile-work-strip-edit-button" tabindex="0"><span><i class="fa fa-pencil"></i></span><span>Edit</span></a></span></span><span id="work-strip-rankings-button-container"></span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--stats"><span><span><span class="js-view-count view-count u-mr2x" data-work-id="74579835"><i class="fa fa-spinner fa-spin"></i></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 74579835; window.Academia.workViewCountsFetcher.queue(workId, function (count) { var description = window.$h.commaizeInt(count) + " " + window.$h.pluralize(count, 'View'); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=74579835]").text(description); $(".js-view-count[data-work-id=74579835]").attr('title', description).tooltip(); }); });</script></span></span><span><span class="percentile-widget hidden"><span class="u-mr2x work-percentile"></span></span><script>$(function () { var workId = 74579835; window.Academia.workPercentilesFetcher.queue(workId, function (percentileText) { var container = $(".js-work-strip[data-work-id='74579835']"); container.find('.work-percentile').text(percentileText.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + percentileText.slice(1)); container.find('.percentile-widget').show(); container.find('.percentile-widget').removeClass('hidden'); }); });</script></span><span><script>$(function() { new Works.PaperRankView({ workId: 74579835, container: "", }); });</script></span></div><div id="work-strip-premium-row-container"></div></div></div><script> require.config({ waitSeconds: 90 })(["https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/wow_profile-f77ea15d77ce96025a6048a514272ad8becbad23c641fc2b3bd6e24ca6ff1932.js","https://a.academia-assets.com/assets/work_edit-ad038b8c047c1a8d4fa01b402d530ff93c45fee2137a149a4a5398bc8ad67560.js"], function() { // from javascript_helper.rb var dispatcherData = {} if (true){ window.WowProfile.dispatcher = window.WowProfile.dispatcher || _.clone(Backbone.Events); dispatcherData = { dispatcher: window.WowProfile.dispatcher, downloadLinkId: "ee132e1f492dc179369fd30bd86513ce" } } $('.js-work-strip[data-work-id=74579835]').each(function() { if (!$(this).data('initialized')) { new WowProfile.WorkStripView({ el: this, workJSON: {"id":74579835,"title":"Game Theory and Other Modeling Approaches","translated_title":"","metadata":{"abstract":"Game theory is the science of interactive decision making. 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$(this).data('initialized', true); } }); $a.trackClickSource(".js-work-strip-work-link", "profile_work_strip") }); </script> <div class="js-work-strip profile--work_container" data-work-id="54033947"><div class="profile--work_thumbnail hidden-xs"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-thumbnail" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/54033947/The_Moroccan_Crisis_of_1905_1906_An_Analytic_Narrative"><img alt="Research paper thumbnail of The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–1906: An Analytic Narrative" class="work-thumbnail" src="https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg" /></a></div><div class="wp-workCard wp-workCard_itemContainer"><div class="wp-workCard_item wp-workCard--title"><a class="js-work-strip-work-link text-gray-darker" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-title" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.academia.edu/54033947/The_Moroccan_Crisis_of_1905_1906_An_Analytic_Narrative">The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–1906: An Analytic Narrative</a></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span>Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy</span><span>, 2015</span></div><div class="wp-workCard_item"><span class="js-work-more-abstract-truncated">This paper interprets the Moroccan crisis of 1905–1906 in the context of an incomplete informatio...</span><a class="js-work-more-abstract" data-broccoli-component="work_strip.more_abstract" data-click-track="profile-work-strip-more-abstract" href="javascript:;"><span> more </span><span><i class="fa fa-caret-down"></i></span></a><span class="js-work-more-abstract-untruncated hidden">This paper interprets the Moroccan crisis of 1905–1906 in the context of an incomplete information game model, the Tripartite Crisis game, and one of its proper subgames, the Defender-Protégé subgame. In the early stages of the crisis the action choices of the players were shown to be consistent with the players’ beliefs, but their beliefs were not tested. In the final phase, beliefs and action choices were brought into harmony. British support of France during the conference that ended the crisis, the firm stand that France took at the conference, and the German decision to press for a conference is explained in terms of the model’s principal variables. The explanation derived from the model is not necessarily at odds with consensus historical interpretations of the Moroccan crisis. Nonetheless, it offers several advantages over standard, largely atheoretical or ad hoc descriptions. 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