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class="byline-box"><div class="byline"><address>KEITH BRADSHER, 储百亮, MEAGHAN TOBIN</address><time pudate="2024-10-08 03:26:59" datetime="2024-10-08 03:26:59">2024年10月8日</time></div><div class="share-btn"><i class="icon-forward"></i></div></div></div></div><figure class="article-span-photo"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/08/multimedia/08China-Markets-kmgc/08China-Markets-kmgc-master1050.jpg" width="1050" height="697" alt="9月24日，中国央行行长潘功胜（左）和其他高级金融官员宣布了一揽子刺激措施。"><figcaption><span>9月24日，中国央行行长潘功胜（左）和其他高级金融官员宣布了一揽子刺激措施。</span> <cite>Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row"><div class="article-left"><section class="article-body"><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">为期一周的国庆假期结束后，中国大陆股市在周二恢复交易，股价飙升。投资者蜂拥入市，乐观地押注中国领导人致力于为步履蹒跚的中国经济提供刺激。</div><div class="article-paragraph">在休市之前，中国政府推出了一系列措施，旨在阻止房地产价格下跌和消费者信心减弱的周期，从而推动股市大幅走高。</div><div class="article-paragraph">9月24日，<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240924/china-cuts-mortgage-rates/" title="Link: https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240924/china-cuts-mortgage-rates/">央行</a>和其他主要金融机构宣布将下调利率，降低抵押贷款的最低首付比例，并鼓励银行向投资者提供更多贷款，以购买股票。</div><div class="article-paragraph">两天后，执政的中共中央<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240927/asia-stocks-csi-300/">政治局</a>发出了一项不同寻常的直率呼吁，要求采取更多措施提振经济。随后，一些城市很快就减少或取消了<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/china-property-mortgages.html">购</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/china-property-mortgages.html">房</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/china-property-mortgages.html">限制</a>，以此来稳定本地房市。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-0" data-target="{"pos":"mid1","adv":""}"><small>广告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">沪深300指数是在上海和深圳两地交易的大型公司的指数，在假期前的五个交易日里，交易量飙升了25%。市场运营商在周一测试自己的系统，迎接新一轮市场活动的大量到来。</div><div class="article-paragraph">沪深300指数周二早盘上涨约10%。</div><div class="article-paragraph">中国的散户投资者纷纷进入股市，涌向雪球和老虎证券等在线交易平台。对中国股市的狂热也蔓延到了海外投资者，他们担心自己会错过几十年来最大的一次上涨。</div><div class="article-paragraph">新加坡独立投资者Tay Chi Keng在<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC4fM4qQJks">YouTube上开设了一个投资频道</a>，他说自己的收件箱里全是寻求咨询建议的请求。</div><div class="article-paragraph">“人们的想法是，‘如果我在中国股市没有股份，那就意味着我在赔钱。’一切都像野火一样蔓延，”他说。</div><div class="article-paragraph">26岁的Tay Chi Keng在最近几年的经济低迷时期持有多家中国公司的股票。他说，他强迫自己采取任何行动时至少思考48小时。但他说，他几乎想放弃这个原则去投资中国白酒公司贵州茅台。茅台的产品每瓶可以卖到数千美元，其股价在假期休市前一周上涨了近40%。</div><div class="article-paragraph">他说：“这次反弹令人难以置信。”</div><div class="article-paragraph"><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/08/multimedia/08China-Markets-02-tpvm/08China-Markets-02-tpvm-master1050.jpg" alt="中国经济已连续三年遭遇房地产价格下跌。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/08/multimedia/08China-Markets-02-tpvm/08China-Markets-02-tpvm-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>中国经济已连续三年遭遇房地产价格下跌。</span> <cite>Qilai Shen for The New York Times</cite></figcaption></figure></div><div class="article-paragraph">在最近的转变之前，中国股市是世界上<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/29/business/hong-kong-stocks-hang-seng.html">表现最差</a>的股市之一。自2021年初以来，沪深300指数下跌了近一半，而香港恒生指数下跌了一半以上。在最近的反弹之后，沪深300指数今年上涨了17%，恒生指数上涨了35%以上。</div><div class="article-paragraph">中国经济已经经历了三年的房地产价格下跌，一个很大的问题是中国领导人是否会采取进一步的经济刺激措施。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-1" data-target="{"pos":"mid2","adv":""}"><small>广告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">促使中国领导人在9月底采取行动的临界点仍然是个谜。整个夏季的经济数据虽然疲软，但并非灾难性的。虽然政府要到10月18日才会公布9月份的详细统计数据，但经济研究机构中国褐皮书对中国企业进行的一项调查发现，过去一个月几乎没有什么变化。</div><div class="article-paragraph">该咨询公司首席执行官利兰·米勒表示：“在北京宣布将提供多年来最积极的政策支持后，许多分析师认为，只有在经济濒临灾难的情况下，政策制定者才会采取行动。这个说法很有说服力，但它是错误的。”</div><div class="article-paragraph">由24人组成的中共中央政治局通常在10月底对经济政策进行一次广泛的季度评估。因此，当中共中央政治局在9月底的一次会议上要求立即采取行动时，投资者感到意外。</div><div class="article-paragraph">就在两个月前，领导层开会审议经济增长状况时明显缺乏紧迫感，这种策略的突然转变就更加出人意料。当时，中共<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202407/content_6965236.htm">中央政治局的声明</a>称，经济“继续回升向好态势”。</div><div class="article-paragraph">领导人指出了各种挑战，包括国内需求疲软。但他们把焦点放在了中国最高领导人习近平最喜欢的主题“<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240324/china-development-forum-economy/">新质生产力</a>”上——比如电动汽车——作为一剂良药。</div><div class="article-paragraph">7月中旬，中共中央委员会召开了一次关于长期经济目标的特别会议，也就是大约每五年召开一次的所谓三中全会，这次会议<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20240722/china-economy-third-plenum-decision/">似乎也是风平浪静</a>。</div><div class="article-paragraph"><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/08/multimedia/08China-Markets-03-tpvm/08China-Markets-03-tpvm-master1050.jpg" alt="中国的政策制定者极力关注制造业投资。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/08/multimedia/08China-Markets-03-tpvm/08China-Markets-03-tpvm-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>中国的政策制定者极力关注制造业投资。</span> <cite>Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure></div><div class="article-paragraph">一些海外经济学家表示，中国最近的措施可能标志着一项拖延已久的努力的开始，即增加消费者支出，为经济增长奠定更可持续的基础。但仍有迹象表明，尽管许多行业出现了长期产能过剩和<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-pinduoduo-ecommerce.html">价格下跌</a>的迹象，但中国领导层仍致力于建设更多的工厂。</div><div class="article-paragraph">“制造业是立国之本、强国之基，”<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://english.news.cn/20240928/450a6a8e97bd458fb258647d7f6cb180/c.html">习近平在9月28日给中国一重集团工人的一封信中写道</a>，该公司是一家生产冶炼和工业设备的国有企业。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-2" data-target="{"pos":"mid3","adv":""}"><small>广告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">中国的许多经济困难是住房价格的急剧下滑所致。在2021年达到顶峰的繁荣时期，中产阶级家庭将他们的储蓄用于购买公寓，通常是通过贷款购买。许多人购买了第二套和第三套公寓作为投资。房地产占家庭资产的60%到80%。</div><div class="article-paragraph">二手房价格每年下跌10%，一些经济学家认为，除非采取更多措施，否则明年跌幅可能加速至15%。中共中央政治局在上月底的会议上承认了这个问题。它指示官员稳定房地产市场，严格控制任何建设的增长，并扩大对官方批准项目的贷款。</div><div class="article-paragraph">中国面临的危险在于，2015年经历的股市崩盘可能会重演。</div><div class="article-paragraph">当时面对房地产价格的疲软，中国政府策划了一场反弹，在不到7个月的时间里，沪深300指数上涨了一倍以上。成百上千万的中国人争相开户，并大举借贷，押注股市。</div><div class="article-paragraph">2015年夏天，沪深300指数跌去了大部分涨幅，许多人损失了大部分或全部积蓄。在那次抛售之前，中国的官方媒体曾<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/business/international/stock-sell-off-unabated-in-china.html">鼓励</a>投资者买入。</div></div><div class="article-body-aside col-lg-3"></div></div></section><footer class="author-info"><p>Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/keith-bradsher">点击查看更多关于他的信息。</a></p><p>储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，在台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/chris-buckley">点击查看更多关于他的信息。</a></p><div data-poster="" class=""></div><p>Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/meaghan-tobin">点击查看更多关于她的信息。</a></p><p>翻译：纽约时报中文网</p><p><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html">点击查看本文英文版。</a></p></footer></div></div></article><div class="container article-footer"><div class="row"><div class="col-lg-12 mobile-refer-cont" id="J_hideRefer"><div class="related-cont"><h4>相关报道</h4><ul class="refer-list"><li class="article-refer"><div class="refer-list-item"><a href="/business/20240927/asia-stocks-csi-300/" title="中国股市创16年来最大单周涨幅"><div><h3 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