CINXE.COM

<!DOCTYPE html> <html class="client-nojs vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-sticky-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-disabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-toc-not-available" lang="en" dir="ltr"> <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <title>View source for FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia</title> <script>(function(){var className="client-js vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-sticky-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-disabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-toc-not-available";var cookie=document.cookie.match(/(?:^|; )enwikimwclientpreferences=([^;]+)/);if(cookie){cookie[1].split('%2C').forEach(function(pref){className=className.replace(new RegExp('(^| )'+pref.replace(/-clientpref-\w+$|[^\w-]+/g,'')+'-clientpref-\\w+( |$)'),'$1'+pref+'$2');});}document.documentElement.className=className;}());RLCONF={"wgBreakFrames":true,"wgSeparatorTransformTable":["",""],"wgDigitTransformTable":["",""],"wgDefaultDateFormat": "dmy","wgMonthNames":["","January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December"],"wgRequestId":"efa3083a-1c57-4ec6-b1a9-aa8a99b9da98","wgCanonicalNamespace":"","wgCanonicalSpecialPageName":false,"wgNamespaceNumber":0,"wgPageName":"FiveThirtyEight","wgTitle":"FiveThirtyEight","wgCurRevisionId":1253968006,"wgRevisionId":0,"wgArticleId":18030657,"wgIsArticle":false,"wgIsRedirect":false,"wgAction":"edit","wgUserName":null,"wgUserGroups":["*"],"wgCategories":[],"wgPageViewLanguage":"en","wgPageContentLanguage":"en","wgPageContentModel":"wikitext","wgRelevantPageName":"FiveThirtyEight","wgRelevantArticleId":18030657,"wgIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRelevantPageIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRestrictionEdit":[],"wgRestrictionMove":[],"wgNoticeProject":"wikipedia","wgCiteReferencePreviewsActive":false,"wgFlaggedRevsParams":{"tags":{"status":{"levels":1}}},"wgMediaViewerOnClick":true,"wgMediaViewerEnabledByDefault":true,"wgPopupsFlags":0, "wgVisualEditor":{"pageLanguageCode":"en","pageLanguageDir":"ltr","pageVariantFallbacks":"en"},"wgMFDisplayWikibaseDescriptions":{"search":true,"watchlist":true,"tagline":false,"nearby":true},"wgWMESchemaEditAttemptStepOversample":false,"wgWMEPageLength":100000,"wgRelatedArticlesCompat":[],"wgEditSubmitButtonLabelPublish":true,"wgULSPosition":"interlanguage","wgULSisCompactLinksEnabled":false,"wgVector2022LanguageInHeader":true,"wgULSisLanguageSelectorEmpty":false,"wgCheckUserClientHintsHeadersJsApi":["brands","architecture","bitness","fullVersionList","mobile","model","platform","platformVersion"],"GEHomepageSuggestedEditsEnableTopics":true,"wgGETopicsMatchModeEnabled":false,"wgGEStructuredTaskRejectionReasonTextInputEnabled":false,"wgGELevelingUpEnabledForUser":false};RLSTATE={"ext.globalCssJs.user.styles":"ready","site.styles":"ready","user.styles":"ready","ext.globalCssJs.user":"ready","user":"ready","user.options":"loading","skins.vector.search.codex.styles":"ready", "skins.vector.styles":"ready","skins.vector.icons":"ready","jquery.makeCollapsible.styles":"ready","ext.charinsert.styles":"ready","ext.wikimediamessages.styles":"ready","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript":"ready","ext.uls.interlanguage":"ready","ext.wikimediaBadges":"ready"};RLPAGEMODULES=["mediawiki.action.edit.collapsibleFooter","site","mediawiki.page.ready","jquery.makeCollapsible","skins.vector.js","ext.centralNotice.geoIP","ext.charinsert","ext.gadget.ReferenceTooltips","ext.gadget.charinsert","ext.gadget.extra-toolbar-buttons","ext.gadget.refToolbar","ext.gadget.switcher","ext.urlShortener.toolbar","ext.centralauth.centralautologin","mmv.bootstrap","ext.popups","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.init","ext.visualEditor.targetLoader","ext.echo.centralauth","ext.eventLogging","ext.wikimediaEvents","ext.navigationTiming","ext.uls.interface","ext.cx.eventlogging.campaigns","ext.checkUser.clientHints","ext.growthExperiments.SuggestedEditSession", "wikibase.sidebar.tracking"];</script> <script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.loader.impl(function(){return["user.options@12s5i",function($,jQuery,require,module){mw.user.tokens.set({"patrolToken":"+\\","watchToken":"+\\","csrfToken":"+\\"}); }];});});</script> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=ext.charinsert.styles%7Cext.uls.interlanguage%7Cext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript%7Cext.wikimediaBadges%7Cext.wikimediamessages.styles%7Cjquery.makeCollapsible.styles%7Cskins.vector.icons%2Cstyles%7Cskins.vector.search.codex.styles&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <script async="" src="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=startup&only=scripts&raw=1&skin=vector-2022"></script> <meta name="ResourceLoaderDynamicStyles" content=""> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=site.styles&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <meta name="generator" content="MediaWiki 1.44.0-wmf.5"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin-when-cross-origin"> <meta name="robots" content="noindex,nofollow,max-image-preview:standard"> <meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/ABC_News_538_Logo.svg/1200px-ABC_News_538_Logo.svg.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="1200"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="1080"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/ABC_News_538_Logo.svg/800px-ABC_News_538_Logo.svg.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="800"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="720"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/ABC_News_538_Logo.svg/640px-ABC_News_538_Logo.svg.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="640"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="576"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=1120"> <meta property="og:title" content="View source for FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia"> <meta property="og:type" content="website"> <link rel="preconnect" href="//upload.wikimedia.org"> <link rel="alternate" media="only screen and (max-width: 640px)" href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/x-wiki" title="Edit this page" href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="/static/apple-touch/wikipedia.png"> <link rel="icon" href="/static/favicon/wikipedia.ico"> <link rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="/w/rest.php/v1/search" title="Wikipedia (en)"> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" href="//en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=rsd"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight"> <link rel="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/atom+xml" title="Wikipedia Atom feed" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:RecentChanges&feed=atom"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//login.wikimedia.org"> </head> <body class="skin--responsive skin-vector skin-vector-search-vue mediawiki ltr sitedir-ltr mw-hide-empty-elt ns-0 ns-subject mw-editable page-FiveThirtyEight rootpage-FiveThirtyEight skin-vector-2022 action-edit"><a class="mw-jump-link" href="#bodyContent">Jump to content</a> <div class="vector-header-container"> <header class="vector-header mw-header"> <div class="vector-header-start"> <nav class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-main-menu-dropdown vector-button-flush-left vector-button-flush-right" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Main menu" > <label id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-label" for="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-menu mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-menu"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Main menu</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-main-menu" class="vector-main-menu vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-main-menu-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="main-menu-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-main-menu" data-pinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Main menu</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-navigation" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-navigation" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Navigation </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-mainpage-description" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Main_Page" title="Visit the main page [z]" accesskey="z"><span>Main page</span></a></li><li id="n-contents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Contents" title="Guides to browsing Wikipedia"><span>Contents</span></a></li><li id="n-currentevents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Current_events" title="Articles related to current events"><span>Current events</span></a></li><li id="n-randompage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:Random" title="Visit a randomly selected article [x]" accesskey="x"><span>Random article</span></a></li><li id="n-aboutsite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About" title="Learn about Wikipedia and how it works"><span>About Wikipedia</span></a></li><li id="n-contactpage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us" title="How to contact Wikipedia"><span>Contact us</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-interaction" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-interaction" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Contribute </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-help" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Contents" title="Guidance on how to use and edit Wikipedia"><span>Help</span></a></li><li id="n-introduction" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" title="Learn how to edit Wikipedia"><span>Learn to edit</span></a></li><li id="n-portal" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Community_portal" title="The hub for editors"><span>Community portal</span></a></li><li id="n-recentchanges" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChanges" title="A list of recent changes to Wikipedia [r]" accesskey="r"><span>Recent changes</span></a></li><li id="n-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:File_upload_wizard" title="Add images or other media for use on Wikipedia"><span>Upload file</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <a href="/wiki/Main_Page" class="mw-logo"> <img class="mw-logo-icon" src="/static/images/icons/wikipedia.png" alt="" aria-hidden="true" height="50" width="50"> <span class="mw-logo-container skin-invert"> <img class="mw-logo-wordmark" alt="Wikipedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-wordmark-en.svg" style="width: 7.5em; height: 1.125em;"> <img class="mw-logo-tagline" alt="The Free Encyclopedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-tagline-en.svg" width="117" height="13" style="width: 7.3125em; height: 0.8125em;"> </span> </a> </div> <div class="vector-header-end"> <div id="p-search" role="search" class="vector-search-box-vue vector-search-box-collapses vector-search-box-show-thumbnail vector-search-box-auto-expand-width vector-search-box"> <a href="/wiki/Special:Search" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only search-toggle" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-search mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-search"></span> <span>Search</span> </a> <div class="vector-typeahead-search-container"> <div class="cdx-typeahead-search cdx-typeahead-search--show-thumbnail cdx-typeahead-search--auto-expand-width"> <form action="/w/index.php" id="searchform" class="cdx-search-input cdx-search-input--has-end-button"> <div id="simpleSearch" class="cdx-search-input__input-wrapper" data-search-loc="header-moved"> <div class="cdx-text-input cdx-text-input--has-start-icon"> <input class="cdx-text-input__input" type="search" name="search" placeholder="Search Wikipedia" aria-label="Search Wikipedia" autocapitalize="sentences" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f" id="searchInput" > <span class="cdx-text-input__icon cdx-text-input__start-icon"></span> </div> <input type="hidden" name="title" value="Special:Search"> </div> <button class="cdx-button cdx-search-input__end-button">Search</button> </form> </div> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-user-links vector-user-links-wide" aria-label="Personal tools"> <div class="vector-user-links-main"> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-preferences" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-userpage" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown " title="Change the appearance of the page's font size, width, and color" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Appearance" > <label id="vector-appearance-dropdown-label" for="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-appearance mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-appearance"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Appearance</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-notifications" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-overflow" class="vector-menu mw-portlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FundraiserRedirector?utm_source=donate&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=C13_en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en" class=""><span>Donate</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-createaccount-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=FiveThirtyEight&returntoquery=action%3Dedit" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory" class=""><span>Create account</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-login-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=FiveThirtyEight&returntoquery=action%3Dedit" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o" class=""><span>Log in</span></a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-user-menu vector-button-flush-right vector-user-menu-logged-out" title="Log in and more options" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Personal tools" > <label id="vector-user-links-dropdown-label" for="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-ellipsis mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-ellipsis"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Personal tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-personal" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-personal user-links-collapsible-item" title="User menu" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FundraiserRedirector?utm_source=donate&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=C13_en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en"><span>Donate</span></a></li><li id="pt-createaccount" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=FiveThirtyEight&returntoquery=action%3Dedit" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-userAdd mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-userAdd"></span> <span>Create account</span></a></li><li id="pt-login" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=FiveThirtyEight&returntoquery=action%3Dedit" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-logIn mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-logIn"></span> <span>Log in</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-user-menu-anon-editor" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-user-menu-anon-editor" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Pages for logged out editors <a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" aria-label="Learn more about editing"><span>learn more</span></a> </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-anoncontribs" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyContributions" title="A list of edits made from this IP address [y]" accesskey="y"><span>Contributions</span></a></li><li id="pt-anontalk" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyTalk" title="Discussion about edits from this IP address [n]" accesskey="n"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </header> </div> <div class="mw-page-container"> <div class="mw-page-container-inner"> <div class="vector-sitenotice-container"> <div id="siteNotice"></div> </div> <div class="vector-column-start"> <div class="vector-main-menu-container"> <div id="mw-navigation"> <nav id="mw-panel" class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading">View source for FiveThirtyEight</h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="This article exist only in this language. Add the article for other languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-0" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Add languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="uls-after-portlet-link"></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Namespaces"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/FiveThirtyEight" title="View the content page [c]" accesskey="c"><span>Article</span></a></li><li id="ca-talk" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Talk:FiveThirtyEight" rel="discussion" title="Discuss improvements to the content page [t]" accesskey="t"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown emptyPortlet" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Change language variant" > <label id="vector-variants-dropdown-label" for="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">English</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-variants" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-variants emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> <div id="right-navigation" class="vector-collapsible"> <nav aria-label="Views"> <div id="p-views" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-views" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-view" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/FiveThirtyEight"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-edit" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit" title="Edit this page"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-history" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=history" title="Past revisions of this page [h]" accesskey="h"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-tools-dropdown" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Tools" > <label id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-label" for="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-page-tools" class="vector-page-tools vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-page-tools-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="page-tools-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-page-tools" data-pinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Tools</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-cactions" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-cactions emptyPortlet vector-has-collapsible-items" title="More options" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Actions </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-more-view" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/FiveThirtyEight"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-edit" class="selected vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit" title="Edit this page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-history" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=history"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-tb" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-tb" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> General </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-whatlinkshere" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:WhatLinksHere/FiveThirtyEight" title="List of all English Wikipedia pages containing links to this page [j]" accesskey="j"><span>What links here</span></a></li><li id="t-recentchangeslinked" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChangesLinked/FiveThirtyEight" rel="nofollow" title="Recent changes in pages linked from this page [k]" accesskey="k"><span>Related changes</span></a></li><li id="t-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:File_Upload_Wizard" title="Upload files [u]" accesskey="u"><span>Upload file</span></a></li><li id="t-specialpages" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:SpecialPages" title="A list of all special pages [q]" accesskey="q"><span>Special pages</span></a></li><li id="t-info" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=info" title="More information about this page"><span>Page information</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UrlShortener&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fw%2Findex.php%3Ftitle%3DFiveThirtyEight%26action%3Dedit"><span>Get shortened URL</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener-qrcode" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:QrCode&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fw%2Findex.php%3Ftitle%3DFiveThirtyEight%26action%3Dedit"><span>Download QR code</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-wikibase-otherprojects" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-wikibase-otherprojects" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> In other projects </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-wikibase" class="wb-otherproject-link wb-otherproject-wikibase-dataitem mw-list-item"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q600669" title="Structured data on this page hosted by Wikidata [g]" accesskey="g"><span>Wikidata item</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-column-end"> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-appearance" class="vector-appearance vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-appearance-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="appearance-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-appearance" data-pinned-container-id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Appearance</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle">← <a href="/wiki/FiveThirtyEight" title="FiveThirtyEight">FiveThirtyEight</a></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><p>You do not have permission to edit this page, for the following reasons: </p> <ul class="permissions-errors"><li class="mw-permissionerror-blockedtext"> <div id="mw-blocked-text" style="border: 1px solid #AAA; background-color: var(--background-color-warning-subtle, ivory); color: inherit; padding: 1.5em; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"> <div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 26px;"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Stop_hand_nuvola.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/50px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png" decoding="async" width="50" height="50" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/75px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/100px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="240" data-file-height="240" /></a></span><b> This IP address has been <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Blocking_policy" title="Wikipedia:Blocking policy">blocked</a> from <i>editing</i> Wikipedia.</b></span><br /><span style="font-size: 18px;">This does not affect your ability to <i>read</i> Wikipedia pages.</span></div><div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><b>Most people who see this message have done nothing wrong.</b> Some kinds of blocks restrict editing from specific service providers or telecom companies in response to recent abuse or vandalism, and can sometimes affect other users who are unrelated to that abuse. Review the information below for assistance if you do not believe that you have done anything wrong.<div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div> <p>The IP address or range 8.222.128.0/17 has been <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Blocking_policy" title="Wikipedia:Blocking policy">blocked</a> by <a href="/wiki/User:L235" title="User:L235">‪L235‬</a> for the following reason(s): </p> <div style="padding:10px; background:var(--background-color-base, white); color:inherit; border:1px #666 solid;"> <div class="user-block colocation-webhost" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; background-color: #ffefd5; border: 1px solid #AAA; padding: 0.7em;"> <figure class="mw-halign-left" typeof="mw:File"><span><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Server-multiple.svg/40px-Server-multiple.svg.png" decoding="async" width="40" height="57" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Server-multiple.svg/60px-Server-multiple.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Server-multiple.svg/80px-Server-multiple.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="744" data-file-height="1052" /></span><figcaption></figcaption></figure><b>The <a href="/wiki/IP_address" title="IP address">IP address</a> that you are currently using has been blocked because it is believed to be a <a href="/wiki/Web_hosting_service" title="Web hosting service">web host provider</a> or <a href="/wiki/Colocation_centre" title="Colocation centre">colocation provider</a>.</b> To prevent abuse, <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Open_proxies" title="Wikipedia:Open proxies">web hosts and colocation providers may be blocked</a> from editing Wikipedia. <div style="border-top: 1px solid #AAA; clear: both">You will not be able to edit Wikipedia using a web host or colocation provider because it hides your IP address, much like a <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Open_proxies" title="Wikipedia:Open proxies">proxy</a> or <a href="/wiki/Virtual_private_network" title="Virtual private network">VPN</a>. <p><b>We recommend that you attempt to use another connection to edit.</b> For example, if you use a proxy or VPN to connect to the internet, turn it off when editing Wikipedia. If you edit using a mobile connection, try using a Wi-Fi connection, and vice versa. If you are using a corporate internet connection, switch to a different Wi-Fi network. If you have a Wikipedia account, please log in. </p><p>If you do not have any other way to edit Wikipedia, you will need to <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:IP_block_exemption#Requesting_and_granting_exemption" title="Wikipedia:IP block exemption">request an IP block exemption</a>. </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1214851843">.mw-parser-output .hidden-begin{box-sizing:border-box;width:100%;padding:5px;border:none;font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .hidden-title{font-weight:bold;line-height:1.6;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .hidden-content{text-align:left}@media all and (max-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .hidden-begin{width:auto!important;clear:none!important;float:none!important}}</style><div class="hidden-begin mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style=""><div class="hidden-title skin-nightmode-reset-color" style="text-align:center;">How to appeal if you are confident that your connection does not use a colocation provider's IP address:</div><div class="hidden-content mw-collapsible-content" style=""> If you are confident that you are not using a web host, you may <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Appealing_a_block" title="Wikipedia:Appealing a block">appeal this block</a> by adding the following text on your <a href="/wiki/Help:Talk_pages" title="Help:Talk pages">talk page</a>: <code>{{<a href="/wiki/Template:Unblock" title="Template:Unblock">unblock</a>|reason=Caught by a colocation web host block but this host or IP is not a web host. My IP address is _______. <i>Place any further information here.</i> ~~~~}}</code>. <b>You must fill in the blank with your IP address for this block to be investigated.</b> Your IP address can be determined <span class="plainlinks"><b><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Get_my_IP_address?withJS=MediaWiki:Get-my-ip.js">here</a></b></span>. Alternatively, if you wish to keep your IP address private you can use the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Unblock_Ticket_Request_System" title="Wikipedia:Unblock Ticket Request System">unblock ticket request system</a>. There are several reasons you might be editing using the IP address of a web host or colocation provider (such as if you are using VPN software or a business network); please use this method of appeal only if you think your IP address is in fact not a web host or colocation provider.</div></div> <p><span class="sysop-show" style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="border:#707070 solid 1px;background-color:#ffe0e0;padding:2px"><b>Administrators:</b></span> The <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:IP_block_exemption" title="Wikipedia:IP block exemption">IP block exemption</a> user right should only be applied to allow users to edit using web host in exceptional circumstances, and requests should usually be directed to the functionaries team via email. If you intend to give the IPBE user right, a <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:CheckUser" title="Wikipedia:CheckUser">CheckUser</a> needs to take a look at the account. This can be requested most easily at <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:SPI#Quick_CheckUser_requests" class="mw-redirect" title="Wikipedia:SPI">SPI Quick Checkuser Requests</a>. <b>Unblocking</b> an IP or IP range with this template <b>is highly discouraged</b> without at least contacting the blocking administrator.</span> </p> </div></div> </div> <p>This block will expire on 18:23, 24 August 2026. Your current IP address is 8.222.208.146. </p> <div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><div style="font-size: 16px;"> <p>Even when blocked, you will <i>usually</i> still be able to edit your <a href="/wiki/Special:MyTalk" title="Special:MyTalk">user talk page</a>, as well as <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Emailing_users" title="Wikipedia:Emailing users">email</a> administrators and other editors. </p> </div> <div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><div style="font-size: 16px;"> <p>For information on how to proceed, please read the <b><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Appealing_a_block#Common_questions" title="Wikipedia:Appealing a block">FAQ for blocked users</a></b> and the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Appealing_a_block" title="Wikipedia:Appealing a block">guideline on block appeals</a>. The <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Guide_to_appealing_blocks" title="Wikipedia:Guide to appealing blocks">guide to appealing blocks</a> may also be helpful. </p> </div> <p>Other useful links: <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Blocking_policy" title="Wikipedia:Blocking policy">Blocking policy</a> · <a href="/wiki/Help:I_have_been_blocked" title="Help:I have been blocked">Help:I have been blocked</a> </p> </div></li><li class="mw-permissionerror-globalblocking-blockedtext-range"> <div id="mw-blocked-text" style="border: 1px solid #AAA; background-color: var(--background-color-warning-subtle, ivory); color: inherit; padding: 1.5em; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"> <div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 26px;"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Stop_hand_nuvola.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/50px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png" decoding="async" width="50" height="50" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/75px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f1/Stop_hand_nuvola.svg/100px-Stop_hand_nuvola.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="240" data-file-height="240" /></a></span><b> This IP address range has been <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Global_blocks" class="extiw" title="m:Global blocks">globally blocked</a>.</b></span><br /><span style="font-size: 18px;">This does not affect your ability to <i>read</i> Wikipedia pages.</span></div><div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><b>Most people who see this message have done nothing wrong.</b> Some kinds of blocks restrict editing from specific service providers or telecom companies in response to recent abuse or vandalism, and can sometimes affect other users who are unrelated to that abuse. Review the information below for assistance if you do not believe that you have done anything wrong.<div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div> <p>This block affects editing on all Wikimedia wikis. </p><p>The IP address or range 8.222.128.0/17 has been globally <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Blocking_policy" title="Wikipedia:Blocking policy">blocked</a> by <a href="/wiki/User:Jon_Kolbert" title="User:Jon Kolbert">‪Jon Kolbert‬</a> for the following reason(s): </p> <div style="padding:10px; background:var(--background-color-base, white); color:inherit; border:1px #666 solid;"> <p><a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/NOP" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/NOP">Open proxy/Webhost</a>: See the <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/WM:OP/H" class="extiw" title="m:WM:OP/H">help page</a> if you are affected </p> </div> <p>This block will expire on 15:12, 27 August 2028. Your current IP address is 8.222.208.146. </p> <div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><div style="font-size: 16px;"> <p>Even while globally blocked, you will <i>usually</i> still be able to edit pages on <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/" class="extiw" title="m:">Meta-Wiki</a>. </p> </div> <div class="paragraphbreak" style="margin-top:0.5em"></div><div style="font-size: 16px;"> <p>If you believe you were blocked by mistake, you can find additional information and instructions in the <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/No_open_proxies" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/No open proxies">No open proxies</a> global policy. Otherwise, to discuss the block please <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Steward_requests/Global" class="extiw" title="m:Steward requests/Global">post a request for review on Meta-Wiki</a>. You could also send an email to the <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Stewards" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/Stewards">stewards</a> <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/VRT" class="extiw" title="m:Special:MyLanguage/VRT">VRT</a> queue at <kbd>stewards@wikimedia.org</kbd> including all above details. </p> </div> <p>Other useful links: <a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Global_blocks" class="extiw" title="m:Global blocks">Global blocks</a> · <a href="/wiki/Help:I_have_been_blocked" title="Help:I have been blocked">Help:I have been blocked</a> </p> </div></li></ul><hr /> <div id="viewsourcetext">You can view and copy the source of this page:</div><textarea readonly="" accesskey="," id="wpTextbox1" cols="80" rows="25" style="" class="mw-editfont-monospace" lang="en" dir="ltr" name="wpTextbox1">{{Short description|American news website}} {{other uses|538 (disambiguation)}} {{italic title}} {{multiple issues| {{unbalanced|date=November 2023}} {{Primary sources|date=April 2023}} }} {{Use mdy dates|date=February 2022}} {{Infobox website | name = ''538'' | logo = ABC News 538 Logo.svg | screenshot = | caption = | company_type = Subsidiary | type = Political analysis and blog | language = English | owner = [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] | creator = [[Nate Silver]] | url = {{URL|abcnews.go.com/538}} | commercial = Yes | registration = No | launch_date = {{start date and age|2008|3|7|p=y}}<ref>{{cite web|url=http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com|title=FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools|work=[[WHOIS]]|access-date=September 3, 2016|archive-date=September 24, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170924211248/http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com|url-status=live}}</ref> | current_status = Online }} '''''538''''', originally rendered as '''''FiveThirtyEight''''', is an American website that focused on [[opinion poll]] analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.<ref name=":1">{{cite web |date=September 18, 2023 |title=Welcome to the new 538 website |url=https://abcnews.go.com/538/introducing-538-abc-news/story?id=103218541 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230918145157/https://abcnews.go.com/538/introducing-538-abc-news/story?id=103218541 |archive-date=September 18, 2023 |access-date=September 18, 2023 |website=[[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]]}}</ref> Founder [[Nate Silver]] left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin.<ref name="Brutal Wonk Swap">{{cite news |last1=Stieb |first1=Matt |title=A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/fivethirtyeight-hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html |access-date=July 9, 2024 |work=New York Magazine |date=May 19, 2023}}</ref><ref name="Nate Silver Exiting">{{cite news |last1=Weprin |first1=Alex |title=With Nate Silver Exiting, ABC News Finds Its Next Data Guru in G. Elliott Morris |url=https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/abc-news-finds-new-fivethirtyeight-chief-1235496339/ |access-date=July 9, 2024 |work=The Hollywood Reporter |date=May 19, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Fortinsky |first1=Sarah |title=Nate Silver expects 'further decline ahead' in Biden polls after debate |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4751340-nate-silver-joe-biden-polls-further-decline-post-debate-2024/ |access-date=July 9, 2024 |work=The Hill |date=July 2, 2024}}</ref> 538's new owner Disney hired [[G. Elliott Morris]] to develop a new model.<ref name="Brutal Wonk Swap"/><ref name="Nate Silver Exiting"/> On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages.<ref name=":1" /> The logo was replaced, with the name ''538'' now used instead of ''FiveThirtyEight''. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the [[United States Electoral College|United States electoral college]],<ref group="538" name="faq">{{cite web|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised/|title= Frequently Asked Questions|last=Silver|first=Nate|publisher=FiveThirtyEight|date=August 7, 2008|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140227173932/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html|archive-date=February 27, 2014}}</ref> was founded on March 7, 2008, as a [[Poll aggregator|polling aggregation website]] with a blog created by analyst [[Nate Silver]]. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''[[The New York Times]]'' online and was renamed '''''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus'''''. In July 2013, [[ESPN]] acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ''[[ESPN.com]]''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/9499752/nate-silver-joins-espn-multifaceted-role|title=Nate Silver joins ESPN in multifaceted role|work=ESPN.com|date=July 22, 2013|url-status=live|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20130725054022/http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/9499752/nate-silver-joins-espn-multifaceted-role|archive-date=July 25, 2013}}</ref> Since then, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] (also under parent [[The Walt Disney Company]]). During the [[United States presidential primary|presidential primaries]] and [[2008 United States presidential election|general election of 2008]] the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in [[sabermetrics]] to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data".<ref>{{cite web |last1=Romano |first1=Andrew |title=Where We Were on June 16, 2004--and What It Means for Nov. 4, 2008 |url=http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/16/the-electoral-map-is-obama-outperforming-kerry-or-is-mccain-outperforming-bush.aspx |website=Stumper |publisher=Newsweek |access-date=June 19, 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080617214439/http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/16/the-electoral-map-is-obama-outperforming-kerry-or-is-mccain-outperforming-bush.aspx |archive-date=June 17, 2008 |date=June 16, 2008}}</ref><ref>Andrew Romano (June 16, 2008). [http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469 "Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw"]. ''[[Newsweek]]''. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080619111251/http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469|date=June 19, 2008}}</ref> Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz|title=FAQ and Statement of Methodology|date=June 9, 2008|work=FiveThirtyEight|access-date=June 19, 2008|archive-date=May 19, 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110519104700/https://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz|url-status=live}}</ref> Since the 2008 election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the [[United States Senate|Senate]]; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for [[Healthcare reform in the United States|health care reform]], [[global warming]] legislation and [[LGBT rights in the United States|LGBT rights]]; elections around the world; [[Legal history of cannabis in the United States|marijuana legalization]]; and numerous other topics. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 presidential election]] in which ''FiveThirtyEight'' correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. ''FiveThirtyEight'' has won numerous awards. These include [[The Weblog Awards (Bloggies)|Bloggie Awards]] for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics in 2009 as well as [[Webby Award|Webbies]] for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, ''FiveThirtyEight'' won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the [[Global Editors Network]]. ==Methods== One aspect of the site is Silver's efforts to rank pollsters by accuracy, [[Sampling (statistics)#Survey weights|weight]] their polls accordingly, and then supplement those polls with his own electoral projections based on [[Demography|demographics]] and prior voting patterns. Silver said: "I did think there was room for a more sophisticated way of handling these things."<ref name="WSJ"/><ref name="STATS">{{cite news |last=Felder |first=Adam |date=September 2009 |title=Case study: The FiveThirtyEight.com Predictive Model of the 2008 Presidential Election |url=http://www.causeweb.org/stats/STATS_50.pdf |newspaper=STATS |issn=1053-8607 |issue=50 |pages=3–9 |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120430100954/http://www.causeweb.org/stats/STATS_50.pdf |archive-date=April 30, 2012 }}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' weighs pollsters' historical track records through a complex methodology,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/pollster-ratings-v30.html|title=Pollster Ratings v3.0|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080719034906/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/pollster-ratings-v30.html|archive-date=July 19, 2008}}</ref> and assigns them values to indicate "Pollster-Introduced Error". At its base, Silver's method is similar to other analysts' approaches to taking advantage of the multiple polls that are conducted within each state: he averaged the polling results. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic. The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would neither reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by ''Pollster.com'': if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or [[Local regression|LOESS]]. While adopting such an approach in his own analysis, Silver reasoned that there was additional information available in polls from "similar" states that might help to fill the gaps in information about the trends in a given state. Accordingly, he adapted an approach that he had previously used in his [[PECOTA|baseball forecasting]]: using [[nearest neighbor search|nearest neighbor analysis]] he first identified "most similar states" and then factored into his electoral projections for a given state the polling information from "similar states". He carried this approach one step further by also factoring national polling trends into the estimates for a given state. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state. Furthermore, a basic intuition that Silver drew from his analysis of the [[2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries|2008 Democratic party primary elections]] was that the voting history of a state or Congressional district provided clues to current voting. This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in [[2008 North Carolina Democratic primary|North Carolina]] and [[2008 Indiana Democratic primary|Indiana]], for example.<ref name="Poblano Model" /> Using such information allowed Silver to come up with estimates of the vote preferences even in states for which there were few if any polls. For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states", Silver estimated a "''538'' [[Regression analysis|regression]]" using historical voting information along with [[demography|demographic]] characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll (equivalent to the actually available polls from that state). This approach helped to stabilize his projections, because if there were few if any polls in a given state, the state forecast was largely determined by the ''538'' regression estimate. ===Transparency of pollster ratings=== On June 6, 2010, ''FiveThirtyEight'' posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html|title=Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100621012716/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html|archive-date=June 21, 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/09/wheres_the_transparency_in_pollster_ratings.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100612092520/http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/09/wheres_the_transparency_in_pollster_ratings.html|title=Where's the Transparency in Pollster Ratings?|archive-date=June 12, 2010}}</ref> Silver responded on ''538'': "Where's the transparency? Well, it's here [citing his June 6 article], in an article that contains 4,807 words and 18 footnotes. Every detail of how the pollster ratings are calculated is explained. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one".<ref group="538">{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/on-transparency-hypocrisy-and-research.html|title=On Transparency, Hypocrisy, and Research 2000|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100613125641/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/on-transparency-hypocrisy-and-research.html|archive-date=June 13, 2010}}</ref> As for why the complete ''538'' polling database had not been released publicly, Silver responded: "The principal reason is because I don't know that I'm legally entitled to do so. The polling database was compiled from approximately eight or ten distinct data sources, which were disclosed in a comment which I posted shortly after the pollster ratings were released, and which are detailed again at the end of this article. These include some subscription services, and others from websites that are direct competitors of this one. Although polls contained in these databases are ultimately a matter of the public record and clearly we feel as though we have every right to use them for research purposes, I don't know what rights we might have to re-publish their data in full." Silver also commented on the fact that the ''538'' ratings had contributed to [[Markos Moulitsas]]'s decision to end ''[[Daily Kos]]''{{'s}} use of [[Research 2000]] as its pollster.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/9/874403/-Polling|title=Polling|work=Daily Kos|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100612093042/http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/9/874403/-Polling|archive-date=June 12, 2010}}</ref> On June 11, 2010, Mark Blumenthal also commented on the question of transparency in an article in the ''[[National Journal]]'' titled "Transparency In Rating: Nate Silver's Impressive Ranking Of Pollsters' Accuracy Is Less Impressive In Making Clear What Data Is Used".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20100611_6800.php|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100614193729/http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20100611_6800.php|title=Transparency In Rating|archive-date=June 14, 2010|publisher=National Journal Online}}</ref> He noted that in the case of Research 2000 there were some discrepancies between what Silver reported and what the pollster itself reported. Other researchers questioned aspects of the methodology.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.pollster.com/blogs/are_nate_silvers_pollster_rati.php|title=Pollster.com}}{{Dead link|date=September 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> On June 16, 2010, Silver announced on his blog that he is willing to give all pollsters who he had included in his rating a list of their polls that he had in his archive, along with the key information that he used (poll marginals, sample size, dates of administration); and he encouraged the pollsters to examine the lists and the results to compare them with the pollster's own record and make corrections.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-is-pleased-to-let.html|title=FiveThirtyEight Establishes Process for Pollsters to Review its Database of Their Polls|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100619063133/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-is-pleased-to-let.html|archive-date=June 19, 2010}}</ref> In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/|title=FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160209122210/http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/|archive-date=February 9, 2016}}</ref> as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the years 1998–2012.<ref>{{GitHub|https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/pollster-ratings}}</ref> In addition to updating his pollster ratings, he published an updated methodological report.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/|title=How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=September 25, 2014|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160405023050/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/|archive-date=April 5, 2016}}</ref> ==Origin== [[File:FiveThirtyEight Logo.svg|thumb|right|Logo for ''FiveThirtyEight'' until 2023]] Nate Silver started ''FiveThirtyEight'' in early March 2008, published under the [[pseudonym]] Poblano, the same name that he had used since November 2007 when he began publishing a diary on the [[Blog|political blog]] ''[[Daily Kos]]''.<ref name="Daily Kos-Poblano">{{cite web |url=http://www.dailykos.com/user/Poblano |title=Poblano's Profile |website=Daily Kos |access-date=April 26, 2015 |archive-date=February 5, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150205170107/http://www.dailykos.com/user/poblano |url-status=live }}</ref> The name ''FiveThirtyEight'' derives from the 538 electors in the [[United States Electoral College]].<ref>{{cite news |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=FiveThirty … Nine? |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirty-nine/ |access-date=June 13, 2022 |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=February 28, 2009 |archive-date=May 24, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220524100459/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirty-nine/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Writing for ''Daily Kos'', Silver had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on [[Super Tuesday, 2008|Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667|title=Mo. Parents Clueless About Kerry|work=Daily Kos|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081230165700/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667|archive-date=December 30, 2008}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/5/42033/29727/442/450099|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080208101728/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/5/42033/29727/442/450099|title=Daily Kos: State of the Nation|archive-date=February 8, 2008}}</ref> From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus [[American Samoa]], Poblano predicted that [[Barack Obama]] would come away with 859 delegates, and [[Hillary Clinton]] 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. Based on this result, ''[[New York Times]]'' [[op-ed]] columnist [[Bill Kristol|William Kristol]] wrote: "And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html|title=Obama's Path to Victory|date=February 11, 2008|work=[[The New York Times]]|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161229070940/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html|archive-date=December 29, 2016}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the [[2008 North Carolina Democratic primary|North Carolina]] and [[2008 Indiana Democratic primary|Indiana]] Democratic party primaries on May 6, 2008. As Mark Blumenthal wrote in ''[[National Journal]]'', "Over the last week, an [[anonymous blog]]ger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, ''FiveThirtyEight.com''. He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data.&nbsp;... Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina.&nbsp;... But a funny thing happened. The model got it right."<ref name="Poblano Model">{{cite news |last=Blumenthal |first=Mark |date=May 8, 2008 |title=The Poblano Model |url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php |newspaper=[[National Journal]] |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090414152429/http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php |archive-date=April 14, 2009 }}</ref> Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in ''other'' states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections.<ref name="WSJ">{{Cite news|url=https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/|title=Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers|date=June 2, 2008|work=The Wall Street Journal|access-date=June 19, 2008|first=Carl|last=Bialik|author-link=Carl Bialik|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080606201959/https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/|archive-date=June 6, 2008}}</ref> On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his ''FiveThirtyEight'' readers.<ref group="538">{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-im-not-chuck-todd/|title=No, I'm not Chuck Todd|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=May 30, 2008|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160130131640/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-im-not-chuck-todd/|archive-date=January 30, 2016}}</ref> After that date, he published just four more diaries on ''Daily Kos''.<ref name="Daily Kos-Poblano" /> As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. In 2008, ''[[Rasmussen Reports]]'' had an apparently short-term partnership with ''FiveThirtyEight'' in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757|title=Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130116024716/http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757|archive-date=January 16, 2013}}</ref> At the same time, ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s daily "Today's Polls" column began to be mirrored on "The Plank", a blog published by ''[[The New Republic]]''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080614232907/http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx|title=Today's Polls: The Bounce hits the Badger State – The Plank|archive-date=June 14, 2008}}</ref> In July 2008, the site began to report regular updates of projections of 2008 U.S. Senate races. Special procedures were developed relying on both polls and [[demographic analysis]]. The projections were updated on a weekly basis.<ref group="538">{{cite web|last1=Silver|first1=Nate|author-link1=Nate Silver|title=Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20rankings|work=FiveThirtyEight|access-date=March 28, 2017|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130123084638/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20rankings|archive-date=January 23, 2013}}</ref> By early October 2008, ''FiveThirtyEight'' approached 2.5 million visitors per week, while averaging approximately 400,000 per weekday.<ref group=538>{{cite web|first=Sean|last=Quinn|title=On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=October 3, 2008|author-link=Sean Quinn (writer)|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081207021530/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html|archive-date=December 7, 2008}}</ref> During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million [[Pageview|page views]].<ref group=538>{{cite web|first=Sean|last=Quinn|title=Site Note|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/site-note.html|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=November 3, 2008|author-link=Sean Quinn (writer)|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081205143611/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/site-note.html|archive-date=December 5, 2008}}</ref> On Election Day, November 4, 2008, the site had nearly 5 million page views.<ref name="NYT-2008/11/10">{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html|title=Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama|last=Clifford|first=Stephanie|date=November 9, 2008|work=The New York Times|access-date=April 26, 2015|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150224063509/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html|archive-date=February 24, 2015}}</ref> ===Final projections of 2008 elections=== In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for [[Barack Obama]] and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html|title=Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081204075833/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html|archive-date=December 4, 2008}}</ref> Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in [[Indiana]] and the [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district|2nd congressional district]] of [[Nebraska]], which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected [[2008 United States presidential election|national popular vote differential]] was below the actual figure of 7.2 points. The forecasts for the [[United States Senate|Senate]] proved to be correct for every race, but the near stalemate in [[Minnesota]] led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In [[Alaska]], after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent [[Ted Stevens]] conceded the seat to Democrat [[Mark Begich]], an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/18/alaska.senate.race/index.html|title=Stevens concedes Alaska Senate race|access-date=November 19, 2008|archive-date=December 5, 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081205153027/http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/18/alaska.senate.race/index.html|url-status=live}}</ref> In [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican [[Saxby Chambliss]], a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection. ===The ground game and "On the Road"=== During the 2008 electoral campaign, [[Sean Quinn (writer)|Sean Quinn]], a second contributor, drew on his knowledge and experience with campaign organizations to evaluate the [[grassroots|ground game]] and [[Get out the vote|"get out the vote"]] strategies of the McCain and Obama campaign teams. A [[poker player]], Quinn drew an analogy between Barack Obama's electoral strategy and a poker player having multiple "outs" for winning a hand.<ref>{{Cite news|first=Ian|last=Froeb|title=Two of a Kind: Clayton High grad Sean Quinn and poker buddy/baseball stat head Nate Silver crunch the Electoral College numbers on FiveThirtyEight.com|url=http://www.riverfronttimes.com/2008-10-08/news/two-of-a-kind-clayton-high-grad-sean-quinn-and-poker-buddy-baseball-stat-head-nate-silver-crunch-the-electoral-college-numbers-on-fivethirtyeight-com|newspaper=[[Riverfront Times]]|date=October 6, 2008}}</ref> In September, Quinn launched a series of essays under the name ''On the Road''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/on%20the%20road|title=Articles labeled "On the Road"|website=FiveThirtyEight |first=Sean|last=Quinn|author-link=Sean Quinn (writer)}}</ref> Quinn traveled from state to state telling the story of the campaign from the electoral battleground, drawing on observations and interviews with [[grassroots]] campaign workers. ==After the 2008 U.S. election== ===Focus=== During the first two months after the election, no major innovations in content were introduced. A substantial percentage of the articles focused on Senatorial races: the runoff in Georgia, won by [[Saxby Chambliss]]; recounts of votes in Alaska (won by [[Mark Begich]]), and Minnesota ([[Al Franken]] vs. [[Norm Coleman]]); and the appointments of Senatorial replacements in Colorado, New York, and Illinois. After [[First inauguration of Barack Obama|President Obama's inauguration]], [[Sean Quinn (writer)|Sean Quinn]] reported that he was moving to Washington, D.C., to continue political writing from that locale.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/end-of-beginning.html|title=The End of the Beginning|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090125073259/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/end-of-beginning.html|archive-date=January 25, 2009}}</ref> On February 4, 2009, he became the first blogger to join the [[White House press corps]].<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/obama-hits-road-to-sell-stimulus-steps.html|title=Obama Hits the Road to Sell Stimulus, Steps Up Pressure on Key Senators|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090208180301/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/obama-hits-road-to-sell-stimulus-steps.html|archive-date=February 8, 2009}}</ref> After that time, however, he contributed only a handful of articles to ''FiveThirtyEight''. During the post-2008 election period Silver devoted attention to developing some tools for the analysis of forthcoming [[2010 United States elections|2010 Congressional elections]],<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/appointed-senators-rarely-win-re.html|title=Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election|work=FiveThirtyEight|access-date=January 9, 2009|archive-date=December 16, 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081216005530/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/appointed-senators-rarely-win-re.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/daddy-where-do-senators-come-from/|title=Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=January 9, 2009|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160207145043/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/daddy-where-do-senators-come-from/|archive-date=February 7, 2016}}</ref> as well as discussing policy issues and the policy agenda for the Obama administration, especially economic policies.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obamas-agenda-difference-between.html|title=Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090124234359/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obamas-agenda-difference-between.html|archive-date=January 24, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/what-are-chances-of-depression.html|title=What Are the Chances of a Depression?|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090204065040/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/what-are-chances-of-depression.html|archive-date=February 4, 2009}}</ref> He developed a list of 2010 Senate races in which he made monthly updates of predicted party turnover.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-january-2009-edition/|title=Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=January 7, 2009|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160207100426/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-january-2009-edition/|archive-date=February 7, 2016}}</ref> Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/359c9ae4-a457-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0.html|title=Interview with Nate Silver|work=[[Financial Times]]|date=September 18, 2009|access-date=September 24, 2009|archive-date=September 30, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230930213608/https://www.ft.com/content/359c9ae4-a457-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0|url-status=live}}</ref> He wrote a series of columns investigating the credibility of polls by Georgia-based firm Strategic Vision, LLC. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. Later, he uncovered indirect evidence that Strategic Vision may have gone as far as to fabricate the results of a citizenship survey taken by [[Oklahoma]] high school students, which led him to denounce Strategic Vision as "disreputable and fraudulent".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/us/03survey.html|title=Polling Firm's Reprimand Rattles News Media|date=October 3, 2009|work=The New York Times|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161229070929/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/us/03survey.html|archive-date=December 29, 2016}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html|title=Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091124041912/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html|archive-date=November 24, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html|title=Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091111080311/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html|archive-date=November 11, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html|title=Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091121173224/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html|archive-date=November 21, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/open-letter-to-strategic-vision-ceo.html|title=An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091122011212/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/open-letter-to-strategic-vision-ceo.html|archive-date=November 22, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/skipping-09-elections-strategic-vision.html|title=Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091111080316/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/skipping-09-elections-strategic-vision.html|archive-date=November 11, 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| last=Bialik | first=Carl | title=Polling Controversy Raises Questions of Disclosure | newspaper=WSJ | date=7 October 2009 | url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-NB-805|url-status=live|url-access=subscription|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160207214833/https://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/polling-controversy-raises-questions-of-disclosure-805/ |archive-date=February 7, 2016}}</ref>{{efn|Several national firms use the name "Strategic Vision"; only one has been releasing political polling results to the media.}} ''FiveThirtyEight'' devoted more than a dozen articles to the [[2009 Iranian presidential election|Iranian presidential election in June 2009]], assessing of the quality of the vote counting. International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election;<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/polling-and-voting-in-irans-friday.html|title=Polling and Voting in Iran's Friday Election|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091121180946/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/polling-and-voting-in-irans-friday.html|archive-date=November 21, 2009}}</ref> then posts by Silver, [[Andrew Gelman]] and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications.<ref group=538>{{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/iran/ |title=All posts tagged 'Iran' |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150406065614/http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/iran/ |archive-date=April 6, 2015 }}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/its-election-night.html|title=Election Night Overview|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091106104525/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/its-election-night.html|archive-date=November 6, 2009}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/independent-voters-and-empty.html|title=Independent Voters and Empty Explanations|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091111074843/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/independent-voters-and-empty.html|archive-date=November 11, 2009}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' writers Schaller, Gelman, and Silver also gave extensive coverage to the January 19, 2010 [[Massachusetts]] special election to the U.S. Senate. The "''538'' model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican [[Scott Brown (politician)|Scott Brown]] would win.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html|title=538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100121140722/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html|archive-date=January 21, 2010}}</ref> In spring 2010, ''FiveThirtyEight'' turned a focus on the [[2010 United Kingdom general election|United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6]], with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html|title=UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430143321/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html|archive-date=April 30, 2010}}</ref> Following a number of preview posts in January<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/hung-parliament-from-gallows-perhaps.html|title=A Hung Parliament? (From the Gallows, Perhaps?)|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100605174245/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/hung-parliament-from-gallows-perhaps.html|archive-date=June 5, 2010}}</ref> and February,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/instant-run-off-proposed-by-brown.html|title=Instant Run-Off Proposed by Brown|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100526054322/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/instant-run-off-proposed-by-brown.html|archive-date=May 26, 2010}}</ref> Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/getting-it-right-on-uk-numbers.html|title=Getting It "Right" on the UK Numbers|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100611151208/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/getting-it-right-on-uk-numbers.html|archive-date=June 11, 2010}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-1.html|title=Selection bias in UK polling (Part 1): Cell phones|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100623043803/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-1.html|archive-date=June 23, 2010}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-2.html|title=Selection Bias in UK Polling (Part 2): Internet Polling|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100620032005/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-2.html|archive-date=June 20, 2010}}</ref> and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/is-lib-dem-surge-for-real-part-4.html|title=Is the Lib Dem Surge for Real (Part 4: The meltdown)|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100618211857/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/is-lib-dem-surge-for-real-part-4.html|archive-date=June 18, 2010}}</ref> while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman{{efn|Berman first worked with ''FiveThirtyEight'' when he made some provocative discoveries of anomalies in the reported results of the 2009 Election in Iran.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2009/06/25/statistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election/|title=Statistics wizard from Winchester makes a splash in Iran election |newspaper=[[Boston.com]]|date=June 25, 2009|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100505171425/http://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2009/06/25/statistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election/|archive-date=May 5, 2010|last1=Smith|first1=James F.}}</ref>}} developed a seat projection model. The UK election was the first time the ''FiveThirtyEight'' team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election.<ref group=538>{{cite web |url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/liveblog-uk-election-returns.html |title=Liveblog: UK Election Returns |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |last2=Sexton |first2=Renard |last3=Berman |first3=Dan |last4=Dollar |first4=Thomas |date=May 6, 2010 |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131021023904/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/liveblog-uk-election-returns.html |archive-date=October 21, 2013 }}</ref> In April 2010, ''[[The Guardian]]'' published Silver's predictions for the [[2010 United Kingdom general election|2010 United Kingdom General Election]]. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of [[Uniform national swing|uniform swing]] to predict the outcome of elections. However, by applying his own methodology, Silver produced very different results, which suggested that a [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative]] victory might have been the most likely outcome.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/27/nate-silver-labour-swing | work=The Guardian | location=London | title=Baseball nerd who predicted Obama's win foresees Labour meltdown | first=Oliver | last=Burkeman | date=April 27, 2010 | access-date=May 19, 2010 | url-status=live | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130910113014/http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/27/nate-silver-labour-swing | archive-date=September 10, 2013 | df=mdy-all }}</ref> After a series of articles, including critiques and responses to other electoral analysts, his "final projection" was published on the eve of the election.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/final-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html|title=Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111009211053/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/final-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html|archive-date=October 9, 2011}}</ref> In the end, Silver's projections were off the mark, particularly compared with those of some other organizations, and Silver wrote a ''post mortem'' on his blog.<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2010/05">{{cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=May 11, 2010 |title=U.K. Forecasting Retrospective |url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/uk-forecasting-retrospective.html |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131021085612/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/uk-forecasting-retrospective.html |archive-date=October 21, 2013 }}</ref> Silver examined the pitfalls of the forecasting process,<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2010/05" /> while Sexton discussed the final government agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/con-lib-pact-brings-cameron-to-pms.html|title=Con-Lib Pact Brings Cameron to PM's Chair|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100616024535/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/con-lib-pact-brings-cameron-to-pms.html|archive-date=June 16, 2010}}</ref> ==Partnership with ''The New York Times'': 2010–2013== On June 3, 2010, Silver announced that in early August the blog would be "relaunched under a ''[[The New York Times|NYTimes.com]]'' domain".<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2010/06">{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html|title=FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=June 3, 2010|access-date=June 3, 2010|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100606173921/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html|archive-date=June 6, 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite press release|title=The New York Times Will Incorporate the Blog FiveThirtyEight into the Politics Section of NYTimes.com|url=https://investors.nytco.com/news-and-events/press-releases/news-details/2010/The-New-York-Times-Will-Incorporate-the-Blog-FiveThirtyEight-into-the-Politics-Section-of-NYTimescom/default.aspx|agency=[[The New York Times Company]]|date=June 3, 2010|access-date=April 28, 2023|archive-date=April 28, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230428025419/https://investors.nytco.com/news-and-events/press-releases/news-details/2010/The-New-York-Times-Will-Incorporate-the-Blog-FiveThirtyEight-into-the-Politics-Section-of-NYTimescom/default.aspx|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/business/media/04silver.html|title=Times to Host Blog on Politics and Polls|date=June 4, 2010|work=The New York Times|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161229071308/http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/business/media/04silver.html|archive-date=December 29, 2016}}</ref> The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog article online in ''The New York Times''.<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2010/08/25">{{cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |author-link=Nate Silver |date=August 25, 2010 |title=New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141213005055/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/ |archive-date=December 13, 2014 }}</ref> On June 3, 2010, ''The New York Times'' and Silver announced that ''FiveThirtyEight'' had formed a partnership under which the blog would be hosted by the ''Times'' for a period of three years.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150909212618/http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight/|title=The Times to Host Political Polling Site FiveThirtyEight|author=Brian Stelter|date=June 3, 2010|archive-date=September 9, 2015|work=Media Decoder Blog}}</ref> In legal terms, ''FiveThirtyEight'' granted a "license" to the ''Times'' to publish the blog. The blog would be listed under the "Politics" tab of the News section of the ''Times''.<ref name="niemanlab.org/2010/06">{{cite web |url=http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/06/articles-of-incorporation-nate-silver-and-jim-roberts-on-the-nyts-absorption-of-fivethirtyeight/ |title=Articles of incorporation: Nate Silver and Jim Roberts on the NYT's absorption of FiveThirtyEight |first=Megan |last=Garber |date=June 3, 2010 |work=NiemanLab |publisher=[[Harvard College]] |access-date=October 16, 2016 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160419074743/http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/06/articles-of-incorporation-nate-silver-and-jim-roberts-on-the-nyts-absorption-of-fivethirtyeight/ |archive-date=April 19, 2016 }}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' would thus be subject to and benefit from editing and technical production by the ''Times'', while ''FiveThirtyEight'' would be responsible for creating the content. Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the ''Times''.<ref name="niemanlab.org/2010/06" /><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/08/2010-06-08_getting_with_the_times_nate_silvers_hip_fivethirtyeight_blog_joins_the_new_york_.html|title=FiveThirtyEight blog gets with the Times|date=June 8, 2010|work=NY Daily News|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100613014838/http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/08/2010-06-08_getting_with_the_times_nate_silvers_hip_fivethirtyeight_blog_joins_the_new_york_.html|archive-date=June 13, 2010}}</ref> Under terms of the agreement, Silver would also write monthly articles for the print version of both the newspaper and the [[The New York Times Magazine|Sunday magazine]].<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2010/06" /> Silver did not move his blog to the highest bidder, because he was concerned with maintaining his own voice while gaining the exposure and technical support that a larger media company could provide. "There's a bit of a [[Groucho Marx]] quality to it [Silver has said].&nbsp;... You shouldn't want to belong to any media brand that seems desperate to have you as a member, even though they'll probably offer the most cash".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/business/media/news-consumption-tilts-toward-niche-sites.html|title=News Trends Tilt Toward Niche Sites|date=September 12, 2011|work=The New York Times|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160309093326/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/business/media/news-consumption-tilts-toward-niche-sites.html|archive-date=March 9, 2016}}</ref> The first column of the renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus'' appeared in the ''Times'' on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/welcome-and-welcome-back/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150907235351/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/welcome-and-welcome-back/|title=Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight|author=Nate Silver|date=August 25, 2010|archive-date=September 7, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> All columns from the original ''FiveThirtyEight'' were also archived for public access.<ref name="About-NYT">{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/about-fivethirtyeight/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140318085522/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/about-fivethirtyeight/|title=About FiveThirtyEight|archive-date=March 18, 2014}}</ref> Shortly after ''FiveThirtyEight'' relocated to ''The New York Times'', Silver introduced his prediction models for the [[2010 United States elections|2010 elections]] to the [[2010 United States Senate elections|U.S. Senate]], the [[2010 United States House of Representatives elections|U.S. House of Representatives]], and state [[2010 United States gubernatorial elections|Governorships]]. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. The ''538'' model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141011154100/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/|title=38 Days Later|author=Micah Cohen|date=December 10, 2010|archive-date=October 11, 2014|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> ===Writers=== When the transition to ''The New York Times'' was announced, Silver listed his staff of writers for the first time.<ref name="About-NYT"/> However, of the seven listed writers, only three of them had published on ''538''/''New York Times'' by late December 2010: Silver, Renard Sexton and Hale Stewart. [[Andrew Gelman]] contributed again in early 2011.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150321060012/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/|title=All Politics Is Local? The Debate and the Graphs|author=Andrew Gelman|date=January 3, 2011|archive-date=March 21, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> Brian McCabe published his first article in January 2011.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/grading-new-york-restaurants-whats-in-an-a/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150526232925/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/grading-new-york-restaurants-whats-in-an-a/|title=Grading New York Restaurants: What's in an 'A'?|author=Brian J. McCabe|date=January 19, 2011|archive-date=May 26, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref>{{efn|Why other writers played only a limited role in FiveThirtyEight/NYT was explained in February 2011 in an article in ''Poynter''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/|title=FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adjusts to New York Times, 6 months after joining the newsroom|work=Poynter|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110225020129/http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/|archive-date=February 25, 2011}}</ref>}} Beginning in 2011, one writer who emerged as a regular contributor was Micah Cohen. Cohen provided a periodic "Reads and Reactions" column in which he summarized Silver's articles for the previous couple of weeks, as well as reactions to them in the media and other blogs, and suggested some additional readings related to the subject of Silver's columns. Silver identified Cohen as "my news assistant".<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/new-hampshires-contrarian-streak/#more-17579|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150911003519/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/new-hampshires-contrarian-streak/#more-17579|title=New Hampshire's Contrarian Streak|author=Nate Silver|date=October 10, 2011|archive-date=September 11, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> Cohen also contributed additional columns on occasion.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/a-look-at-politifact-grades-of-candidates/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150910022431/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/a-look-at-politifact-grades-of-candidates/|title=A Look at PolitiFact Grades of Candidates|author=Micah Cohen|date=September 23, 2011|archive-date=September 10, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> On September 12, 2011, Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to [[John M. Sides|John Sides]], a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month. Mr. Sides is also the founder of the blog ''[[The Monkey Cage (blog)|The Monkey Cage]]'', which was named the 2010 Blog of the Year by ''[[The Week]]'' magazine".<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/social-status-of-members-of-congress-shifts-policy-toward-rich/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906153005/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/social-status-of-members-of-congress-shifts-policy-toward-rich/|title=Social Status and How the Elected Vote|author1-link=John M. Sides|author=John Sides|date=September 12, 2011|archive-date=September 6, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> ===Beyond electoral politics=== While politics and elections remained the main focus of ''FiveThirtyEight'', the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the [[NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament|March Madness]]<ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=In Tournament of Upsets, V.C.U. Has Overcome Longest Odds |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/in-tournament-of-upsets-v-c-u-has-overcome-longest-odds/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=March 28, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110529194013/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/in-tournament-of-upsets-v-c-u-has-overcome-longest-odds/ |archive-date=May 29, 2011 }}</ref><ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/? |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=March 18, 2003 |access-date=March 18, 2013 |archive-date=March 18, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130318181352/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=Nate Silver's Tournament Forecast |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html |newspaper=The New York Times |date=March 18, 2013 |access-date=February 21, 2017 |archive-date=March 16, 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170316182551/http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html? |url-status=live }}</ref> and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,<ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/fivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=March 13, 2012 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120314194227/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/fivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket/ |archive-date=March 14, 2012 }}</ref> the [[Bowl Championship Series|B.C.S.]] rankings in NCAA college football,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=Popularity and Pedigree Matter in the B.C.S. |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/sports/ncaafootball/in-bcs-popularity-and-pedigree-matter.html |date=August 27, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151109235636/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/sports/ncaafootball/in-bcs-popularity-and-pedigree-matter.html |archive-date=November 9, 2015 }}</ref> the [[National Basketball Association|NBA]],<ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks' Upside |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/deal-for-anthony-may-limit-knicks-upside/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=February 22, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110511005939/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/deal-for-anthony-may-limit-knicks-upside/ |archive-date=May 11, 2011 }}</ref><ref group=538>{{Cite news |title=Calling Foul on N.B.A.'s Claims of Financial Distress |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/calling-foul-on-n-b-a-s-claims-of-financial-distress/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=July 5, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110708082002/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/calling-foul-on-n-b-a-s-claims-of-financial-distress/ |archive-date=July 8, 2011 }}</ref><ref group=538>{{Cite news |title=Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=February 11, 2012 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120211213933/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/ |archive-date=February 11, 2012 }}</ref> and [[Major League Baseball]] matters ranging from the 2011 attendance at the [[New York Mets]]' [[Citi Field]]<ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=As Mets' Image Slumps, So Does Attendance |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/as-mets-image-slumps-so-does-attendance/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=May 31, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110604131347/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/as-mets-image-slumps-so-does-attendance/ |archive-date=June 4, 2011 }}</ref> to the historic 2011 collapse of the [[Boston Red Sox]].<ref group=538>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/september-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=September 27, 2011 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120711230840/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/september-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever/ |archive-date=July 11, 2012 }}</ref> The site has also posted forecasts for the [[Academy Awards]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hickey |first=Walt |date=2018-03-05 |title=How Our Oscar Predictions Did |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-oscar-predictions-did/ |access-date=2023-01-25 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en-US |archive-date=January 25, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230125174800/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-oscar-predictions-did/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In addition, ''FiveThirtyEight'' sometimes turned its attention to other topics, such as the economics of blogging,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/the-economics-of-blogging-and-the-huffington-post/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151210102155/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/the-economics-of-blogging-and-the-huffington-post/|title=The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post|author=Nate Silver|date=February 12, 2011|archive-date=December 10, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> the financial ratings by [[Standard & Poor's|Standard & Poors]],<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150908111600/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/|title=Why S.&P.'s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous|author=Nate Silver|date=August 8, 2011|archive-date=September 8, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> economists' tendency to underpredict unemployment levels,<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/in-jobs-data-surprises-mean-bad-news/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906213856/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/in-jobs-data-surprises-mean-bad-news/|title=In Jobs Data, 'Surprises' Mean Bad News|author=Nate Silver|date=September 6, 2011|archive-date=September 6, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> and the economic impact and media coverage of [[Hurricane Irene|Hurricane Irene (2011)]].<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/new-york-hurricane-could-be-multibillion-dollar-catastrophe/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906005224/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/new-york-hurricane-could-be-multibillion-dollar-catastrophe/|title=A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe|author=Nate Silver|date=August 26, 2011|archive-date=September 6, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref><ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/how-irene-lived-up-to-the-hype/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906081708/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/how-irene-lived-up-to-the-hype/|title=How Irene Lived Up to the Hype|author=Nate Silver|date=August 29, 2011|archive-date=September 6, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> [[File:Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png|300px|right|thumb|Adapted from a ''FiveThirtyEight'' October 2011 graph published in ''The New York Times''<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07" />]] ''FiveThirtyEight'' published a graph showing different growth curves of the news stories covering [[Tea Party movement|Tea Party]] and [[Occupy Wall Street]] protests. Silver pointed out that conflicts with the police caused the sharpest increases in news coverage of the protests<ref group=538 name="FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07">{{cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |author-link=Nate Silver |date=October 7, 2011 |title=Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/police-clashes-spur-coverage-of-wall-street-protests/ |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150414054719/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/police-clashes-spur-coverage-of-wall-street-protests/ |archive-date=April 14, 2015 }}</ref> and assessed the geography of the protests by analyzing news reports of the size and location of events across the United States.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/the-geography-of-occupying-wall-street-and-everywhere-else/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150509062424/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/the-geography-of-occupying-wall-street-and-everywhere-else/|title=The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)|author=Nate Silver|date=October 17, 2011|archive-date=May 9, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> ===2012 U.S. elections=== ''FiveThirtyEight'' rolled out its 2012 general election forecasting model on June 7, 2012. The model forecast both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote, with the latter being central to the exercise and involving a forecast of each state. In the initial forecast, Barack Obama was estimated to have a 61.8% chance of winning the electoral vote. The website provided maps and statistics about the electoral outcomes in each state as well as nationally. Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906010312/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/|title=Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms|author=Nate Silver|date=June 22, 2012|archive-date=September 6, 2015|work=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref> On the morning of November 6, Election Day, Silver's model gave President Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the electoral votes.<ref group=538>{{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com |title=FiveThirtyEight blog |website=The New York Times |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150425170119/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ |archive-date=April 25, 2015 }}</ref> The ''538'' model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/|title=Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants|date=November 7, 2012|publisher=CBS Interactive|work=[[CNET]]|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121107201118/http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/|archive-date=November 7, 2012}}</ref>{{efn|Although Silver put a "toss-up" tag on the presidential election in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the state light blue and stated that there was a 50.3% probability that Obama would win a plurality of the state's votes.}} Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus not only correctly predicted all 50 states, but also all nine "[[swing state]]s".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html|title=Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51|date=November 7, 2012|work=The Huffington Post|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130309231920/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html|archive-date=March 9, 2013}}</ref> In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108063430/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election|title=Nate Silver-Led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election|author=Jonathan D. Salant and Laura Curtis|archive-date=November 8, 2012|work=Businessweek.com}}</ref> An independent analysis of Silver's state-by-state projections, assessing whether the percentages of votes that the candidates actually received fell within the "margin of error" of Silver's forecasts, found that "48 out of 50 states actually fell within his margin of error, giving him a success rate of 96%. And assuming that his projected margin of error figures represent 95 percent confidence intervals, which it is likely they did, Silver performed just about exactly as well as he would expect to over 50 trials. Wizard, indeed".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/11/nobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html|title=Nobody's perfect: Nate Silver and the imperfect art of prediction (Update)|work=Boston.com|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110000118/http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/11/nobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html|archive-date=November 10, 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.acthomas.ca/comment/2012/11/538s-uncertainty-estimates-are-as-good-as-they-get.html|title=538's Uncertainty Estimates Are As Good As They Get|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121115083320/http://www.acthomas.ca/comment/2012/11/538s-uncertainty-estimates-are-as-good-as-they-get.html|archive-date=November 15, 2012}}</ref> Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/|title=Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit?|work=CFAR|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160201145344/http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/|archive-date=February 1, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=2012 Presidential prediction rankings|url=http://www.voteseeing.com/2012/11/2012-presidential-prediction-rankings.html|access-date=November 12, 2012|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110234310/http://www.voteseeing.com/2012/11/2012-presidential-prediction-rankings.html|archive-date=November 10, 2012}}</ref> ==ESPN and ABC News affiliation== In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog would depart ''The New York Times'' and join [[ESPN]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/20/business/media/nate-silver-blogger-for-new-york-times-is-to-join-espn-staff.html|title=Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff|date=July 20, 2013|work=The New York Times|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170415062133/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/20/business/media/nate-silver-blogger-for-new-york-times-is-to-join-espn-staff.html|archive-date=April 15, 2017}}</ref> In its announcement of its acquisition of ''FiveThirtyEight'', ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like [[Grantland]], which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com."<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.espnfrontrow.com/2013/07/nate-silver-renowned-statistician-author-and-founder-of-fivethirtyeight-joins-espn-in-multi-faceted-role/|title=Nate Silver&nbsp;– Renowned Statistician, Author and Founder of FiveThirtyEight&nbsp;– Joins ESPN in Multi-Faceted Role|author=Amy Phillips|date=July 22, 2013|work=ESPN Front Row|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130725173226/http://frontrow.espn.go.com/2013/07/nate-silver-renowned-statistician-author-and-founder-of-fivethirtyeight-joins-espn-in-multi-faceted-role/|archive-date=July 25, 2013}}</ref> According to Silver, the focus of ''FiveThirtyEight'' in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it's going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it's going to be a politics site with sports thrown in.&nbsp;... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously.&nbsp;... It's a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It's certainly good with presidential elections. But we don't really see politics as how the site is going to grow".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/nate-silver-interview-fivethirtyeight-espn.html|title=Nate Silver Interview: The New FiveThirtyEight |work=[[Intelligencer (website)|Daily Intelligencer]]|date=March 13, 2014 |url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140314115436/http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/nate-silver-interview-fivethirtyeight-espn.html|archive-date=March 14, 2014}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. The lead story by Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization.&nbsp;... We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas&nbsp;– politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features".<ref group=538 name=fox>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/|title=What the Fox Knows|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=March 17, 2014|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140317174126/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/|archive-date=March 17, 2014}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' launched its ESPN-affiliated stage on March 17, 2014. As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others.<ref group=538>{{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/ |title=Masthead |work=FiverThirtyEight |date=February 14, 2014 |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150419033448/http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/ |archive-date=April 19, 2015 }}</ref> By March 2016, this staff had nearly doubled to 37 listed on the masthead, and 7 listed as contributors.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/|title=Masthead|date=February 14, 2014|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150419033448/http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/|archive-date=April 19, 2015}}</ref> The site produced articles under 5 headings: politics, economics, science and health, (cultural) life, and sports. In addition to feature articles it produced [[podcast]]s on a range of subjects. Monthly traffic to the site grew steadily from about 2.8 million [[Unique user|unique visitors]] in April 2014 to 10.7 million unique visitors in January 2016.<ref>Tweet by @NateSilver538 on February 3, 2016, https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170726173359/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1 |date=July 26, 2017 }}</ref> ===2014 U.S. elections=== On September 3, 2014, ''FiveThirtyEight'' introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.<ref group=538>{{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/ |title=2014 Senate Forecast |work=FiveThirtyEight |date=September 3, 2014 |access-date=April 26, 2015 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150424142204/http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/ |archive-date=April 24, 2015 }}</ref> At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeights-senate-model-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge/|title=FiveThirtyEight's Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=September 3, 2014|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140910112404/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeights-senate-model-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge/|archive-date=September 10, 2014}}</ref> About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.<ref group=538>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/|title=Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=September 15, 2014|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140917064210/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/|archive-date=September 17, 2014}}</ref> ===2016 Oscars predictions=== ''FiveThirtyEight'' sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscars-2016/|title=The 2016 Oscars Race|first=Allison|last=McCann|date=February 5, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160206084305/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscars-2016/|archive-date=February 6, 2016}}</ref> The website also compiled a list of other predictions made by other people using different methods.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-predictions-2016/|title=Every Oscar Prediction We Could Find|date=February 26, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303150357/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-predictions-2016/|archive-date=March 3, 2016}}</ref> ===2016 U.S. elections=== ====Presidential primary elections==== ''FiveThirtyEight'' applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – ''polls-only'' and ''polls-plus'' models. The ''polls-only'' model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the ''polls-plus'' model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. For each contest, ''FiveThirtyEight'' produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/|title=How We're Forecasting The Primaries|date=January 12, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160717031302/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/|archive-date=July 17, 2016}}</ref> As early as June 2015, ''FiveThirtyEight'' argued that [[Donald Trump]] "isn't a real candidate".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/|title=Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate, In One Chart|date=June 16, 2015|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160722184021/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/|archive-date=July 22, 2016}}</ref> When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, ''New York Times'' media columnist [[Jim Rutenberg]] wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized ''FiveThirtyEight'' for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls in his favor&nbsp;... they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/business/media/the-republican-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html|title=The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost|date=May 9, 2016|work=The New York Times|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170222012821/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/business/media/the-republican-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html|archive-date=February 22, 2017}}</ref> In a long retrospective, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump", published in May 2016 after Trump had become the likely nominee, Silver reviewed how he had erred in evaluating Trump's chances early in the primary campaign. Silver wrote, "The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight – including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned – our early estimates of Trump's chances weren't based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we [call] 'subjective odds' – which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things".<ref>Nate Silver, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump: Trump's Nomination Shows the Need for a More Rigorous Approach", ''FiveThirtyEight'', May 18, 2016. {{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ |title=How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump |date=May 18, 2016 |access-date=July 18, 2016 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160717172928/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ |archive-date=July 17, 2016 }}</ref> On the Democratic side, ''FiveThirtyEight'' argued that Senator [[Bernie Sanders]] could "lose everywhere else after Iowa and New Hampshire"<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/|title=Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.|date=July 8, 2015|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160716102808/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/|archive-date=July 16, 2016}}</ref> and that the "Democratic establishment would rush in to squash" him if he does not.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge/|title=What To Make Of The Bernie Sanders Surge|date=June 17, 2015|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160724081201/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge/|archive-date=July 24, 2016}}</ref> Sanders went on to win 23 states in [[2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries|the primaries]]. ''[[Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting]]'', a progressive nonprofit media watch group, wrote in May 2016 that ''FiveThirtyEight'' "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackery – that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions."<ref name=fair>{{cite web|url=http://fair.org/home/538-sacrifices-integrity-to-go-after-sanders-on-independents/|title=538 Sacrifices Integrity to Go After Sanders on Independents|date=May 29, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160714095738/http://fair.org/home/538-sacrifices-integrity-to-go-after-sanders-on-independents/|archive-date=July 14, 2016}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s predictions for each state primary, both for the Republican and the Democratic party nominations, were based on statistical analysis, not on the analyst's opinions. The core data employed were polls, which ''FiveThirtyEight'' aggregated for each state (while also considering national polls) using essentially the same method it had employed since 2008. In the 2016 primaries, the projections also took into account endorsements.<ref>Nate Silver, "How We're Forecasting the Primaries", ''FiveThirtyEight'', January 12, 2016 {{cite web |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/ |title=How We're Forecasting the Primaries |date=January 12, 2016 |access-date=July 17, 2016 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160717031302/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/ |archive-date=July 17, 2016 }}</ref> The website also kept track of the accumulation of national party convention delegates.<ref>Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, "Who's On Track for the Nomination?" FiveThirtyEight, June 15, 2016 {{cite web |url=http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/ |title=Who's on Track for the Nomination? |date=February 29, 2016 |access-date=May 9, 2016 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160301063318/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/ |archive-date=March 1, 2016 }}</ref> In a comparison of prediction success published by [[Bloomberg News]] after the primary season was completed, ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'s}} prediction success tied for the highest percentage of correct primary poll winners, at 92%; but it lagged behind PredictWise in predicting a larger set of primaries.<ref>{{cite news |first=Andre |last=Tartar |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions |title=Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170302132749/https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions |archive-date=March 2, 2017 |publisher=[[Bloomberg News]] |date=June 29, 2016}}</ref> Notably, even with ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'s}} track record of correctly predicting elections that pollsters get wrong, it still missed Bernie Sanders's upset victory in the [[2016 Michigan Democratic primary|Michigan primary]], for instance, regarded as "one of the biggest upsets in modern political history".<ref name=fair/> ====Presidential general election==== The final prediction by ''FiveThirtyEight'' on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had [[Hillary Clinton]] with a 71% chance to win the [[2016 United States presidential election]],<ref>{{cite web|title = Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton|url = http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|website = FiveThirtyEight|access-date = November 9, 2016 |first = Nate|last = Silver|date = November 8, 2016|url-status = live|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20161109044042/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|archive-date = November 9, 2016|df = mdy-all}}</ref> while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.<ref name="Silver5"/><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html|title=Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction|last=Allen|first=Kate|newspaper=[[Toronto Star]]|date=November 9, 2016|access-date=November 10, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161109095542/https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html|archive-date=November 9, 2016}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on both Clinton's small lead in general polls, but also on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, mixed with Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012.<ref name=eleccol/> The main issues pointed out by the forecast model was the imbalance of Clinton's improvement in very populated states like Texas, Georgia (projected safe for Republican) and California (projected safe for Democrats);<ref name=eleccol/> mixed with her inability to attract white voters without a college degree, an increasing demographic in swing states, in addition to a potential decline in turnout from minorities.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/|title=How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote|first=David|last=Wasserman|date=September 15, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170126153824/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/|archive-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref> In consequence, Clinton's probabilities to win the Electoral College were not improving.<ref name=eleccol>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/|title=The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing|date=November 1, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161221013034/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/|archive-date=December 21, 2016}}</ref> Silver also focused on state-by-state numbers in so-called 'must-win' states like Ohio and Florida, plus a consideration of polls' margin of error in advantages of less than three points.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/|title=Election Update: Don't Ignore the Polls — Clinton Leads, But It's A Close Race|date=November 6, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161231170311/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/|archive-date=December 31, 2016}}</ref> [[Donald Trump]] won the election. ''FiveThirtyEight'' projected a much higher probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,<ref name="Silver5">[http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/ Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump a Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161114003644/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/ |date=November 14, 2016 }}; ''FiveThirtyEight''; Nate Silver; November 11, 2016</ref> a projection which was criticized by [[Ryan Grim]] of ''[[HuffPost|the Huffington Post]]'' as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f? Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump's Direction] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161114004104/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f |date=November 14, 2016 }}; ''[[Huffington Post]]''; Ryan Grim; November 5, 2016</ref> While ''FiveThirtyEight'' expressed that "nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin", the forecaster also made points about the uncertainty of poll trackers in some cases, the considerable number of undecided voters, and the unpredictable outcome in traditional swing states.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|title=Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton|date=November 8, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161109044042/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|archive-date=November 9, 2016}}</ref> In April 2018, it was announced that ''FiveThirtyEight'' would be transferred to [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] from [[ESPN, Inc.]], majority owned by [[The Walt Disney Company]].<ref name=":0">{{cite news|last1=Steinberg|first1=Brian|title=ABC News Takes Over Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight|url=https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/abc-news-ffivethirtyeight-espn-nate-silver-1202755646/|work=Variety|date=April 17, 2018|access-date=June 19, 2018|archive-date=June 19, 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180619035841/https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/abc-news-ffivethirtyeight-espn-nate-silver-1202755646/|url-status=live}}</ref> ABC News Live streaming channel was launched on Roku in May 2019.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Roettgers |first1=Janko |title=ABC Launches New 24/7 Online News Network 'ABC News Live' Exclusively on Roku Channel |url=https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/abc-news-live-roku-1202783981/ |access-date=January 15, 2020 |work=Variety |date=April 24, 2018 |archive-date=July 25, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200725185955/https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/abc-news-live-roku-1202783981/ |url-status=live }}</ref> With the reorganization creating the [[Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer and International]] segment in March 2018, ABC News Digital and Live Streaming (websites, ABC News Live and ''FiveThirtyEight'') was transferred to the new segment.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Spangler|first1=Todd|title=Disney Reorganizes Divisions, Creates Dedicated Direct-to-Consumer Streaming Unit|url=https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/disney-reorganizes-direct-to-consumer-streaming-unit-1202726528/|access-date=March 15, 2018|work=Variety|date=March 14, 2018|archive-date=March 15, 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180315020741/http://variety.com/2018/digital/news/disney-reorganizes-direct-to-consumer-streaming-unit-1202726528/|url-status=live}}</ref> === 2020 U.S. elections === ==== Redesign of forecast ==== In early August 2020, ''FiveThirtyEight'' announced that for their [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 general election]] forecast they had designed a new graphical structure. This included going with modular structure, a "ball swarm" design for the chart depicting each candidate's chances, and the addition of a "forecast [[mascot]]" named Fivey Fox.<ref name="foxname" group="538">{{cite web|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/|title=How We Designed The Look Of Our 2020 Forecast|work=FiveThirtyEight|date=August 13, 2020|access-date=October 9, 2020|archive-date=October 12, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201012132844/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/|url-status=live}}</ref> An episode of "Chart Chat" discussing the design described the direction saying "FiveThirtyEight has leaned heavily towards a cutesy and engaging approach. The Fivey Fox mascot pops up next to most charts with call-outs to more further information."<ref>{{Cite web|title=Five things data storytellers can learn from 2020 US election poll trackers|url=https://www.tableau.com/blog/2020/10/five-things-data-storytellers-can-learn-2020-us-election-poll-trackers|access-date=November 10, 2020|website=Tableau|date=October 30, 2020 |archive-date=November 10, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201110114704/https://www.tableau.com/blog/2020/10/five-things-data-storytellers-can-learn-2020-us-election-poll-trackers|url-status=live}}</ref> Fivey Fox would also issue reminders to readers of "the potential for extreme outcomes" according to [[Jessica Hullman]], in a piece written for ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]''. Hullman also said of the design that the introduction of the mascot, in conjunction with the new simplified look of the page, was "perhaps the strongest indicator that Silver intends to emphasize uncertainty" in his coverage of the 2020 election.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Allott|first=Daniel|date=September 8, 2020|title=There's more than meets the eye in 2020 election forecasts|url=https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/515291-theres-more-than-meets-the-eye-in-2020-election-forecasts|access-date=November 10, 2020|website=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|archive-date=November 24, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201124073324/https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/515291-theres-more-than-meets-the-eye-in-2020-election-forecasts|url-status=live}}</ref> Jasmine Mithani, visual journalist with ''FiveThirtyEight'', said in an interview when asked about the complaints of new mascot said "I think the biggest complaint about Fivey Fox is that some people find it infantilizing, but that wasn't our intention" and that the motivation for including the character was to help make the forecast more of "a teaching tool".<ref>{{Cite web|title=Jasmine Mithani, visual journalist at FiveThirtyEight, on the Fivey Fox mascot, their interactive swing state map, and more|url=https://www.niemanlab.org/reading/jasmine-mithani-visual-journalist-at-fivethirtyeight-on-the-fivey-fox-mascot-their-interactive-swing-state-map-and-more/|access-date=November 10, 2020|website=Nieman Lab|archive-date=November 10, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201110073850/https://www.niemanlab.org/reading/jasmine-mithani-visual-journalist-at-fivethirtyeight-on-the-fivey-fox-mascot-their-interactive-swing-state-map-and-more/|url-status=live}}</ref> In November 2020, ''[[Rolling Stone]]'' reported that Fivey Fox had reached over 7,000 followers on his dedicated [[Twitter]] account.<ref>{{Cite magazine|last=Dickson|first=E. J.|date=November 3, 2020|title=People Are Impossibly Horny for Fivey, the FiveThirtyEight Fox|url=https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-fivey-fox-mascot-furry-porn-1085399/|access-date=November 10, 2020|magazine=[[Rolling Stone]]|archive-date=November 13, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201113041239/https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-fivey-fox-mascot-furry-porn-1085399/|url-status=live}}</ref> The forecast favored the actual winner of 48 states, the District of Columbia, and four of the five congressional districts awarding electoral votes, only missing [[2020 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]], [[2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]], and [[2020 United States presidential election in Maine|Maine's 2nd congressional district]]. In those three contests the forecast had favored Biden, but they were carried by Trump. Despite correctly forecasting Biden to win nationally, they overestimated Biden's margins in some battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and underestimated Trump's margins in states such as Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Their forecast showed Democrats winning Senate races in North Carolina and Maine, which Republicans ended up winning. However, their forecast did correctly predict that the Democrats would take control of the Senate. In the House elections, their forecast favored Democrats to gain seats, yet Democrats suffered a net loss of 10 seats. The actual house results fell outside their 80% confidence interval, with Democrats winning 222 seats, lower than the confidence interval's lower bound of 225.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=August 12, 2020|title=2020 Election Forecast|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/|access-date=November 13, 2020|work=FiveThirtyEight|archive-date=August 14, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200814184314/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/|url-status=live}}</ref> ===2023 cost-cutting and 2024 elections=== In January 2023, ''[[The Daily Beast]]'' reported that the website was on the "chopping block" amid cost-cutting measures by ABC News, and a sale of the website was being considered. It also noted that several key employees including managing editor Micah Cohen, politics editor Sarah E. Frostenson and sports editor Sara Ziegler had left the website and their positions had not been filled.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Cartwright |first=Lachlan |date=2023-01-23 |title=Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight Are on ABC's Chopping Block |language=en |work=The Daily Beast |url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-and-fivethirtyeight-are-on-abcs-chopping-block |access-date=2023-04-27 |archive-date=April 28, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230428002201/https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-and-fivethirtyeight-are-on-abcs-chopping-block |url-status=live }}</ref> An ABC spokesperson responded to the report, asserting "no imminent decisions about [its] relationship with ''FiveThirtyEight''."<ref>{{Cite web |last=Manfredi |first=Lucas |date=2023-01-24 |title=ABC Refutes Report That Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Is on Chopping Block |url=https://www.thewrap.com/abc-nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-daily-beast-report/ |website=[[TheWrap]] |access-date=2023-04-28 |language=en-US |archive-date=April 28, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230428000701/https://www.thewrap.com/abc-nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-daily-beast-report/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Nonetheless, in April, Silver announced that he would be leaving the site amid widespread layoffs at ABC News, who said the website would be "streamlined" ahead of the 2024 election cycle; editor Chadwick Matlin was among the many laid off.<ref>{{cite news |last=Shanfeld |first=Ethan |url=https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-leaves-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235594060/ |title=FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver Leaving ABC News as Disney Layoffs Continue |date=April 25, 2023 |access-date=April 25, 2023 |work=Variety |archive-date=April 25, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230425165028/https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-leaves-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235594060/ |url-status=live }}</ref> According to Silver, two thirds of ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s staff were cut in one day.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=Some personal news |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=www.natesilver.net |language=en |archive-date=August 6, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230806135232/https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news |url-status=live }}</ref> Since the layoffs, ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s sports and science coverage has ground to a halt, with the website mostly returning to its roots of exclusive politics coverage.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Sports |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/ |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en-US |archive-date=August 6, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230806131450/https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Science & Health |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/science/ |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en-US |archive-date=August 6, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230806131450/https://fivethirtyeight.com/science/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In May 2023, ABC News hired [[G. Elliott Morris]], a data journalist for ''[[The Economist]]'' who has often been described as a rival of Silver,<ref>{{cite web |last1=Zeitlin |first1=Matthew |date=15 October 2020 |title=Nerd Wars - Nate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of the 2020 election -- and each other. |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/nate-silver-and-g-elliott-morris-are-fighting-on-twitter.html |publisher=[[New York (magazine)|New York]] |access-date=May 21, 2023 |archive-date=January 27, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230127022739/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/nate-silver-and-g-elliott-morris-are-fighting-on-twitter.html |url-status=live }}</ref> to head the site as editorial director of data analytics.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Stieb |first=Matt |date=2023-05-19 |title=A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/fivethirtyeight-hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html |access-date=2023-05-21 |website=Intelligencer |language=en-us |archive-date=June 2, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230602055419/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/fivethirtyeight-hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html |url-status=live }}</ref> At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 election]]. In the leadup to [[Withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 United States presidential election|Biden's withdrawal]], 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election.<ref name="Semafor2024">{{cite web |last1=Tani |first1=Max |title=The only place Biden is winning: 538's election model |url=https://www.semafor.com/article/07/18/2024/the-only-place-biden-is-winning-538s-election-model |website=Semafor |date=19 July 2024}}</ref> Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his [[Incumbent#Incumbency advantage|incumbency]], and at worst as being "buggy".<ref name="Semafor2024"/><ref>{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=Why I don't buy 538's new election model |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election |website=Silver Bulletin |date=18 July 2024}}</ref> The election forecast remained suspended for a month after Biden withdrew, before being replaced by a new model for [[Kamala Harris]] versus Trump that put more emphasis on polling.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Morris |first=G. Elliott |title=How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump |url=https://abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjusting-election-model-harris-versus-trump/story?id=112563822 |access-date=2024-08-29 |website=ABC News |language=en}}</ref> ==Recognition and awards== * In September 2008, ''FiveThirtyEight'' became the first blog ever selected as a Notable Narrative by the [[Nieman Foundation for Journalism]] at [[Harvard University]]. According to the Foundation, "In his posts, former economic analyst and baseball-stats wunderkind Nate Silver explains the presidential race, using the dramatic tension inherent in the run-up to Election Day to drive his narrative. Come November 5, we will have a winner and a loser, but in the meantime, Silver spins his story from the myriad polls that confound us lesser mortals".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.niemanstoryboard.org/2008/10/03/electoral-projections-done-right/|title=Electoral Projections Done Right|access-date=May 31, 2012|archive-date=November 12, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131112221606/http://www.niemanstoryboard.org/2008/10/03/electoral-projections-done-right/|url-status=live}}</ref> * ''[[The New York Times]]'' described ''FiveThirtyEight'' in November 2008 as "one of the breakout online stars of the year".<ref name="NYT-2008/11/10" /> * ''[[HuffPost|Huffington Post]]'' columnist Jason Linkins named ''FiveThirtyEight'' as No. 1 of "Ten Things that Managed to Not Suck in 2008, Media Edition".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/24/2008-the-year-in-media-hi_n_153362.html|title=2008: The Year In Media Highlights|date=January 24, 2009|work=The Huffington Post|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081225232843/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/24/2008-the-year-in-media-hi_n_153362.html|archive-date=December 25, 2008}}</ref> * ''FiveThirtyEight'' is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://2008.weblogawards.org/news/the-2008-weblog-award-winners/|title=The 2008 Weblog Awards Winners|url-status=usurped|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091018051726/http://2008.weblogawards.org/news/the-2008-weblog-award-winners/|archive-date=October 18, 2009|access-date=January 16, 2009}}</ref> * ''FiveThirtyEight'' earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://2009.bloggies.com/|title=Ninth Annual Weblog Awards: The 2009 Bloggies|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090318045329/http://2009.bloggies.com/|archive-date=March 18, 2009}}</ref> * In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of ''[[The Week]]'', for his work on ''FiveThirtyEight''.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theweek.com/opinionawards/winners.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100110083746/http://www.theweek.com/opinionawards/winners.html|title=The Week Opinion Awards|work=[[The Week]] |archive-date=January 10, 2010}}</ref> * In September 2009, ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'s}} predictive model was featured as the cover story in ''STATS: The Magazine for Students of Statistics''.<ref name="STATS" /> * In November 2009, ''FiveThirtyEight'' was named one of "Our Favorite Blogs of 2009" ("Fifty blogs we just can't get enough of") by ''[[PC Magazine]]''.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2356002,00.asp|title=Our Favorite Blogs 2009|work=PCMAG|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140302082417/http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0%2C2817%2C2356002%2C00.asp|archive-date=March 2, 2014}}</ref> * In December 2009, ''FiveThirtyEight'' was recognized by ''[[The New York Times Magazine]]'' in its "Ninth Annual Year in Ideas" for conducting "Forensic Polling Analysis" detective work on the possible falsification of polling data by a major polling firm.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Shea|first1=Christopher|title=The Ninth Annual Year in Ideas&nbsp;– Forensic Polling Analysis|url=https://www.nytimes.com/projects/magazine/ideas/2009/#f-1|website=[[The New York Times Magazine]]|access-date=October 13, 2016|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091212061055/http://www.nytimes.com/projects/magazine/ideas/2009/#f-1|archive-date=December 12, 2009}}</ref>{{efn|The first of a series of articles challenged Strategic Vision LLC to reveal key information.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/few-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html|title=A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster|work=FiveThirtyEight|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091225051429/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/few-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html|archive-date=December 25, 2009}}</ref>}} * In November 2010, editor-in-chief of ''[[Politico]]'' [[John F. Harris]], writing in ''[[Forbes]]'' magazine, listed Silver as one of seven bloggers among "The Most Powerful People on Earth".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1122/powerful-people-10-john-harris-chait-hot-air-my-picks-bloggers.html|title=My Picks: Bloggers|author=John F. Harris|date=November 3, 2010|work=Forbes|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101113030217/http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1122/powerful-people-10-john-harris-chait-hot-air-my-picks-bloggers.html|archive-date=November 13, 2010}}</ref> * In June 2011, ''[[Time (magazine)|Time]]''{{'s}} "The Best Blogs of 2011" named ''FiveThirtyEight'' one of its Essential Blogs.<ref>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2075431_2075428_2075417,00.html|title=Five Thirty Eight&nbsp;– Time's 25 Best Blogs of 2011|date=June 6, 2011|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110609175645/http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0%2C28804%2C2075431_2075428_2075417%2C00.html|archive-date=June 9, 2011}}</ref> * May 2012: ''FiveThirtyEight'' won a [[Webby Award]] for "Best Political Blog" from the [[International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences]] in the 16th annual Webby Awards.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.webbyawards.com/webbys/current.php?season=16 |title=The Webby Awards |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120820093559/http://www.webbyawards.com/webbys/current.php?season=16 |archive-date=August 20, 2012 }}</ref> * April 2013: ''FiveThirtyEight'' won a Webby Award for "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences in the 17th annual Webby Awards.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://winners.webbyawards.com/2013/web/general-website/blog-political|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130412023128/http://winners.webbyawards.com/2013/web/general-website/blog-political|archive-date=April 12, 2013|title=Blog&nbsp;– Political}}</ref> * June 2016: ''FiveThirtyEight'' was named the "Data Journalism Website of the Year" for 2016 by the [[Global Editors Network]], a Paris-based organization that promotes innovation in newsrooms around the world. ''FiveThirtyEight'' won an additional award for "News Data App of the Year (large newsroom)" for "Swing the Election", an interactive project by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman.<ref>David Fi David Wsrestone, "We Won Some Prizes", ''FiveThirtyEight'', [http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-won-some-prizes/ June 16, 2016] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160617143307/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-won-some-prizes/ |date=June 17, 2016 }}</ref> * September 2017: The [[National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine]] awarded a 2017 Communication Award in the "Online" category to "FiveThirtyEight's Maggie Koerth-Baker, [[Ben Casselman]], Anna Maria Barry-Jester, and Carl Bialik for 'Gun Deaths in America'. ''{{'}}A balanced and fact-filled examination of an unfolding crisis, with compelling interactives that are meticulously attentive to data quality and statistics.{{'}}'' (italics in the original)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.koshland-science-museum.org/article/2017-keck-futures-initiative-communication-awards|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906180451/https://www.koshland-science-museum.org/article/2017-keck-futures-initiative-communication-awards|archive-date=September 6, 2017|title=2017 Keck Futures Initiative Communication Awards - Marian Koshland Science Museum|date=September 6, 2017}}</ref> * June 2018: "The Atlas of Redistricting" was named "News App of the Year" by the Data Journalism Awards sponsored by the [[Global Editors Network]].<ref>[https://www.datajournalismawards.org/2018-winners/ Data Journalism Awards 2018] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181130163238/https://www.datajournalismawards.org/2018-winners/ |date=November 30, 2018 }}.</ref> == Mascot == Fivey Fox is the mascot of ''FiveThirtyEight''.<ref name="foxname" group="538" /> This is in reference to a phrase attributed to [[Archilochus]]: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing".<ref name="fox" group="538" /> The name "Fivey" is a reference to the website's name, ''FiveThirtyEight''. Fivey Fox is colored orange, white, and beige with comically sized black glasses and has white colored sock-like paws. ==See also== {{portal|Journalism|Politics}} *[[United States Electoral College]] * [[Electoral-vote.com]] * [[RealClearPolitics]] * [[Europe Elects]] {{clear}} ==Notes== {{notelist}} ==References== ===General citations=== {{Reflist}} ===''FiveThirtyEight'' articles=== {{Reflist|group=538}} ==Further reading== * {{cite news |last=Etim |first=Bassey |date=March 22, 2009 |title=Blogging in a Post-Campaign World |url=https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/22/blogging-in-a-post-campaign-world/ |work=[[The New York Times]] |department=The Caucus |access-date=January 3, 2018}} * {{cite news |last=Johnson |first=Bobbie |date=November 3, 2008 |title=America's Hottest Pollster Gives His Final Verdict as US Elections Reach Climax |url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/nov/03/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight |work=[[The Guardian]] |access-date=January 3, 2018}} * {{cite web |last=Myers |first=Steve |date=October 30, 2008 |title=FiveThirtyEight Combines Polls, Reporting and Baseball |url=https://www.poynter.org/news/fivethirtyeight-combines-polls-reporting-and-baseball |website=Poynter |publisher=[[Poynter Institute]] |access-date=January 3, 2018}} * {{cite journal |last=Rothschild |first=David |date=2009 |title=Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases |journal=[[Public Opinion Quarterly]] |volume=73 |issue=5 |pages=895–916 |doi=10.1093/poq/nfp082|doi-access=free }} ==External links== * {{official website}} * {{cite web |url= http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/13822 |title= Nate Silver interview |website= [[Bloggingheads.tv]] |date= Aug 21, 2008 |first= Conn |last= Carroll |series= Nonzero }} {{ABC News Personalities}} {{DEFAULTSORT:FiveThirtyEight}} [[Category:2008 establishments in the United States]] [[Category:ABC News]] [[Category:Aggregation websites]] [[Category:American political blogs]] [[Category:American political websites]] [[Category:Data journalism]] [[Category:ESPN.com]] [[Category:Internet properties established in 2008]] [[Category:Opinion polling in the United States]] [[Category:The New York Times]] </textarea><div class="templatesUsed"><div class="mw-templatesUsedExplanation"><p><span id="templatesused">Pages transcluded onto the current version of this page<span class="posteditwindowhelplinks"> (<a href="/wiki/Help:Transclusion" title="Help:Transclusion">help</a>)</span>:</span> </p></div><ul> <li><a href="/wiki/Template:%27" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:'">Template:'</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:%27&action=edit" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:'">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:%27s" title="Template:'s">Template:'s</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:%27s&action=edit" title="Template:'s">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:ABC_News_Personalities" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:ABC News Personalities">Template:ABC News Personalities</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:ABC_News_Personalities&action=edit" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:ABC News Personalities">edit</a>) </li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:ABC_News_personalities" title="Template:ABC News personalities">Template:ABC News personalities</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:ABC_News_personalities&action=edit" title="Template:ABC News personalities">edit</a>) </li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Ambox" title="Template:Ambox">Template:Ambox</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Ambox&action=edit" title="Template:Ambox">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Apostrophe" title="Template:Apostrophe">Template:Apostrophe</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Apostrophe&action=edit" title="Template:Apostrophe">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Both" title="Template:Both">Template:Both</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Both&action=edit" title="Template:Both">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Category_handler" title="Template:Category handler">Template:Category handler</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Category_handler&action=edit" title="Template:Category handler">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_journal" title="Template:Cite journal">Template:Cite journal</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_journal&action=edit" title="Template:Cite journal">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_magazine" title="Template:Cite magazine">Template:Cite magazine</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_magazine&action=edit" title="Template:Cite magazine">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_news" title="Template:Cite news">Template:Cite news</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_news&action=edit" title="Template:Cite news">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_press_release" title="Template:Cite press release">Template:Cite press release</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_press_release&action=edit" title="Template:Cite press release">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_web" title="Template:Cite web">Template:Cite web</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_web&action=edit" title="Template:Cite web">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Clear" title="Template:Clear">Template:Clear</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Clear&action=edit" title="Template:Clear">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Comma_separated_entries" title="Template:Comma separated entries">Template:Comma separated entries</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Comma_separated_entries&action=edit" title="Template:Comma separated entries">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:DMCA" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:DMCA">Template:DMCA</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:DMCA&action=edit" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:DMCA">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Dated_maintenance_category" title="Template:Dated maintenance category">Template:Dated maintenance category</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Dated_maintenance_category&action=edit" title="Template:Dated maintenance category">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Dated_maintenance_category_(articles)" title="Template:Dated maintenance category (articles)">Template:Dated maintenance category (articles)</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Dated_maintenance_category_(articles)&action=edit" title="Template:Dated maintenance category (articles)">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Dead_link" title="Template:Dead link">Template:Dead link</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Dead_link&action=edit" title="Template:Dead link">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Efn" title="Template:Efn">Template:Efn</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Efn&action=edit" title="Template:Efn">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:FULLROOTPAGENAME" title="Template:FULLROOTPAGENAME">Template:FULLROOTPAGENAME</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:FULLROOTPAGENAME&action=edit" title="Template:FULLROOTPAGENAME">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Find_sources_mainspace" title="Template:Find sources mainspace">Template:Find sources mainspace</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Find_sources_mainspace&action=edit" title="Template:Find sources mainspace">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Fix" title="Template:Fix">Template:Fix</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Fix&action=edit" title="Template:Fix">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Fix/category" title="Template:Fix/category">Template:Fix/category</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Fix/category&action=edit" title="Template:Fix/category">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:GitHub" title="Template:GitHub">Template:GitHub</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:GitHub&action=edit" title="Template:GitHub">view source</a>) (semi-protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Hlist/styles.css" title="Template:Hlist/styles.css">Template:Hlist/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Hlist/styles.css&action=edit" title="Template:Hlist/styles.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:ISSN_link" title="Template:ISSN link">Template:ISSN link</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:ISSN_link&action=edit" title="Template:ISSN link">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:If_empty" title="Template:If empty">Template:If empty</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:If_empty&action=edit" title="Template:If empty">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Infobox" title="Template:Infobox">Template:Infobox</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Infobox&action=edit" title="Template:Infobox">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Infobox_website" title="Template:Infobox website">Template:Infobox website</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Infobox_website&action=edit" title="Template:Infobox website">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Italic_title" title="Template:Italic title">Template:Italic title</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Italic_title&action=edit" title="Template:Italic title">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Longitem" title="Template:Longitem">Template:Longitem</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Longitem&action=edit" title="Template:Longitem">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:MONTHNAME" title="Template:MONTHNAME">Template:MONTHNAME</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:MONTHNAME&action=edit" title="Template:MONTHNAME">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:MONTHNUMBER" title="Template:MONTHNUMBER">Template:MONTHNUMBER</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:MONTHNUMBER&action=edit" title="Template:MONTHNUMBER">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Main_other" title="Template:Main other">Template:Main other</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Main_other&action=edit" title="Template:Main other">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Multiple_issues" title="Template:Multiple issues">Template:Multiple issues</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Multiple_issues&action=edit" title="Template:Multiple issues">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Multiple_issues/styles.css" title="Template:Multiple issues/styles.css">Template:Multiple issues/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Multiple_issues/styles.css&action=edit" title="Template:Multiple issues/styles.css">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Navbox" title="Template:Navbox">Template:Navbox</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Navbox&action=edit" title="Template:Navbox">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Notelist" title="Template:Notelist">Template:Notelist</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Notelist&action=edit" title="Template:Notelist">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Ns_has_subpages" title="Template:Ns has subpages">Template:Ns has subpages</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Ns_has_subpages&action=edit" title="Template:Ns has subpages">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Official_website" title="Template:Official website">Template:Official website</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Official_website&action=edit" title="Template:Official website">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Other_uses" title="Template:Other uses">Template:Other uses</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Other_uses&action=edit" title="Template:Other uses">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Pagetype" title="Template:Pagetype">Template:Pagetype</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Pagetype&action=edit" title="Template:Pagetype">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Portal" title="Template:Portal">Template:Portal</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Portal&action=edit" title="Template:Portal">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Primary_sources" title="Template:Primary sources">Template:Primary sources</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Primary_sources&action=edit" title="Template:Primary sources">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Px2" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:Px2">Template:Px2</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Px2&action=edit" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:Px2">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Reflist" title="Template:Reflist">Template:Reflist</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Reflist&action=edit" title="Template:Reflist">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Reflist/styles.css" title="Template:Reflist/styles.css">Template:Reflist/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Reflist/styles.css&action=edit" title="Template:Reflist/styles.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:SDcat" title="Template:SDcat">Template:SDcat</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:SDcat&action=edit" title="Template:SDcat">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Short_description" title="Template:Short description">Template:Short description</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Short_description&action=edit" title="Template:Short description">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Short_description/lowercasecheck" title="Template:Short description/lowercasecheck">Template:Short description/lowercasecheck</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Short_description/lowercasecheck&action=edit" title="Template:Short description/lowercasecheck">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Start_date_and_age" title="Template:Start date and age">Template:Start date and age</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Start_date_and_age&action=edit" title="Template:Start date and age">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Template_other" title="Template:Template other">Template:Template other</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Template_other&action=edit" title="Template:Template other">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Time_ago" title="Template:Time ago">Template:Time ago</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Time_ago&action=edit" title="Template:Time ago">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Trim" title="Template:Trim">Template:Trim</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Trim&action=edit" title="Template:Trim">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Two_pixel_space" title="Template:Two pixel space">Template:Two pixel space</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Two_pixel_space&action=edit" title="Template:Two pixel space">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:URL" title="Template:URL">Template:URL</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:URL&action=edit" title="Template:URL">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Unbalanced" title="Template:Unbalanced">Template:Unbalanced</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Unbalanced&action=edit" title="Template:Unbalanced">view source</a>) (semi-protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Use_mdy_dates" title="Template:Use mdy dates">Template:Use mdy dates</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Use_mdy_dates&action=edit" title="Template:Use mdy dates">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Webarchive" title="Template:Webarchive">Template:Webarchive</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Webarchive&action=edit" title="Template:Webarchive">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Yesno" title="Template:Yesno">Template:Yesno</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Yesno&action=edit" title="Template:Yesno">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Template:Zero_width_joiner" title="Template:Zero width joiner">Template:Zero width joiner</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Template:Zero_width_joiner&action=edit" title="Template:Zero width joiner">view source</a>) (extended confirmed protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Arguments" title="Module:Arguments">Module:Arguments</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Arguments&action=edit" title="Module:Arguments">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Category_handler" title="Module:Category handler">Module:Category handler</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Category_handler&action=edit" title="Module:Category handler">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Category_handler/blacklist" title="Module:Category handler/blacklist">Module:Category handler/blacklist</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Category_handler/blacklist&action=edit" title="Module:Category handler/blacklist">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Category_handler/config" title="Module:Category handler/config">Module:Category handler/config</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Category_handler/config&action=edit" title="Module:Category handler/config">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Category_handler/data" title="Module:Category handler/data">Module:Category handler/data</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Category_handler/data&action=edit" title="Module:Category handler/data">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Category_handler/shared" title="Module:Category handler/shared">Module:Category handler/shared</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Category_handler/shared&action=edit" title="Module:Category handler/shared">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Check_for_clobbered_parameters" title="Module:Check for clobbered parameters">Module:Check for clobbered parameters</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Check_for_clobbered_parameters&action=edit" title="Module:Check for clobbered parameters">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Check_for_unknown_parameters" title="Module:Check for unknown parameters">Module:Check for unknown parameters</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Check_for_unknown_parameters&action=edit" title="Module:Check for unknown parameters">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1" title="Module:Citation/CS1">Module:Citation/CS1</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/COinS" title="Module:Citation/CS1/COinS">Module:Citation/CS1/COinS</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/COinS&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/COinS">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration">Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/Date_validation" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Date validation">Module:Citation/CS1/Date validation</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/Date_validation&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Date validation">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers">Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities">Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist">Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css" title="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css">Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Date" title="Module:Date">Module:Date</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Date&action=edit" title="Module:Date">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Disambiguation/templates" title="Module:Disambiguation/templates">Module:Disambiguation/templates</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Disambiguation/templates&action=edit" title="Module:Disambiguation/templates">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Find_sources" title="Module:Find sources">Module:Find sources</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Find_sources&action=edit" title="Module:Find sources">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Find_sources/config" title="Module:Find sources/config">Module:Find sources/config</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Find_sources/config&action=edit" title="Module:Find sources/config">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Find_sources/links" title="Module:Find sources/links">Module:Find sources/links</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Find_sources/links&action=edit" title="Module:Find sources/links">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Find_sources/templates/Find_sources_mainspace" title="Module:Find sources/templates/Find sources mainspace">Module:Find sources/templates/Find sources mainspace</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Find_sources/templates/Find_sources_mainspace&action=edit" title="Module:Find sources/templates/Find sources mainspace">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Format_link" title="Module:Format link">Module:Format link</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Format_link&action=edit" title="Module:Format link">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Hatnote" title="Module:Hatnote">Module:Hatnote</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Hatnote&action=edit" title="Module:Hatnote">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Hatnote/styles.css" title="Module:Hatnote/styles.css">Module:Hatnote/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Hatnote/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Hatnote/styles.css">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Hatnote_list" title="Module:Hatnote list">Module:Hatnote list</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Hatnote_list&action=edit" title="Module:Hatnote list">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:If_empty" title="Module:If empty">Module:If empty</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:If_empty&action=edit" title="Module:If empty">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Infobox" title="Module:Infobox">Module:Infobox</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Infobox&action=edit" title="Module:Infobox">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Infobox/styles.css" title="Module:Infobox/styles.css">Module:Infobox/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Infobox/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Infobox/styles.css">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:InfoboxImage" title="Module:InfoboxImage">Module:InfoboxImage</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:InfoboxImage&action=edit" title="Module:InfoboxImage">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Italic_title" title="Module:Italic title">Module:Italic title</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Italic_title&action=edit" title="Module:Italic title">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Message_box" title="Module:Message box">Module:Message box</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Message_box&action=edit" title="Module:Message box">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Message_box/ambox.css" title="Module:Message box/ambox.css">Module:Message box/ambox.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Message_box/ambox.css&action=edit" title="Module:Message box/ambox.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Message_box/configuration" title="Module:Message box/configuration">Module:Message box/configuration</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Message_box/configuration&action=edit" title="Module:Message box/configuration">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Namespace_detect/config" title="Module:Namespace detect/config">Module:Namespace detect/config</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Namespace_detect/config&action=edit" title="Module:Namespace detect/config">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Namespace_detect/data" title="Module:Namespace detect/data">Module:Namespace detect/data</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Namespace_detect/data&action=edit" title="Module:Namespace detect/data">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbar" title="Module:Navbar">Module:Navbar</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbar&action=edit" title="Module:Navbar">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbar/configuration" title="Module:Navbar/configuration">Module:Navbar/configuration</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbar/configuration&action=edit" title="Module:Navbar/configuration">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbar/styles.css" title="Module:Navbar/styles.css">Module:Navbar/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbar/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Navbar/styles.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbox" title="Module:Navbox">Module:Navbox</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbox&action=edit" title="Module:Navbox">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbox/configuration" title="Module:Navbox/configuration">Module:Navbox/configuration</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbox/configuration&action=edit" title="Module:Navbox/configuration">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Navbox/styles.css" title="Module:Navbox/styles.css">Module:Navbox/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Navbox/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Navbox/styles.css">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Ns_has_subpages" title="Module:Ns has subpages">Module:Ns has subpages</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Ns_has_subpages&action=edit" title="Module:Ns has subpages">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Official_website" title="Module:Official website">Module:Official website</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Official_website&action=edit" title="Module:Official website">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Other_uses" title="Module:Other uses">Module:Other uses</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Other_uses&action=edit" title="Module:Other uses">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype" title="Module:Pagetype">Module:Pagetype</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype&action=edit" title="Module:Pagetype">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype/config" title="Module:Pagetype/config">Module:Pagetype/config</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype/config&action=edit" title="Module:Pagetype/config">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype/disambiguation" class="mw-redirect" title="Module:Pagetype/disambiguation">Module:Pagetype/disambiguation</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype/disambiguation&action=edit" class="mw-redirect" title="Module:Pagetype/disambiguation">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype/rfd" title="Module:Pagetype/rfd">Module:Pagetype/rfd</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype/rfd&action=edit" title="Module:Pagetype/rfd">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype/setindex" title="Module:Pagetype/setindex">Module:Pagetype/setindex</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype/setindex&action=edit" title="Module:Pagetype/setindex">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Pagetype/softredirect" title="Module:Pagetype/softredirect">Module:Pagetype/softredirect</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Pagetype/softredirect&action=edit" title="Module:Pagetype/softredirect">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Portal" title="Module:Portal">Module:Portal</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Portal&action=edit" title="Module:Portal">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Portal/images/j" title="Module:Portal/images/j">Module:Portal/images/j</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Portal/images/j&action=edit" title="Module:Portal/images/j">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Portal/images/p" title="Module:Portal/images/p">Module:Portal/images/p</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Portal/images/p&action=edit" title="Module:Portal/images/p">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Portal/styles.css" title="Module:Portal/styles.css">Module:Portal/styles.css</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Portal/styles.css&action=edit" title="Module:Portal/styles.css">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:SDcat" title="Module:SDcat">Module:SDcat</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:SDcat&action=edit" title="Module:SDcat">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Separated_entries" title="Module:Separated entries">Module:Separated entries</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Separated_entries&action=edit" title="Module:Separated entries">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:String" title="Module:String">Module:String</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:String&action=edit" title="Module:String">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:TableTools" title="Module:TableTools">Module:TableTools</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:TableTools&action=edit" title="Module:TableTools">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Time_ago" title="Module:Time ago">Module:Time ago</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Time_ago&action=edit" title="Module:Time ago">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:URL" title="Module:URL">Module:URL</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:URL&action=edit" title="Module:URL">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Unsubst" title="Module:Unsubst">Module:Unsubst</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Unsubst&action=edit" title="Module:Unsubst">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Webarchive" title="Module:Webarchive">Module:Webarchive</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Webarchive&action=edit" title="Module:Webarchive">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Webarchive/data" title="Module:Webarchive/data">Module:Webarchive/data</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Webarchive/data&action=edit" title="Module:Webarchive/data">view source</a>) (template editor protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Wikitext_Parsing" title="Module:Wikitext Parsing">Module:Wikitext Parsing</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Wikitext_Parsing&action=edit" title="Module:Wikitext Parsing">view source</a>) (protected)</li><li><a href="/wiki/Module:Yesno" title="Module:Yesno">Module:Yesno</a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=Module:Yesno&action=edit" title="Module:Yesno">view source</a>) (protected)</li></ul></div><p id="mw-returnto">Return to <a href="/wiki/FiveThirtyEight" title="FiveThirtyEight">FiveThirtyEight</a>.</p> <noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1&useformat=desktop" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks catlinks-allhidden" data-mw="interface"></div> </div> </main> </div> <div class="mw-footer-container"> <footer id="footer" class="mw-footer" > <ul id="footer-info"> </ul> <ul id="footer-places"> <li id="footer-places-privacy"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy">Privacy policy</a></li> <li id="footer-places-about"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About">About Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-disclaimers"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:General_disclaimer">Disclaimers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-contact"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us">Contact Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-wm-codeofconduct"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Universal_Code_of_Conduct">Code of Conduct</a></li> <li id="footer-places-developers"><a href="https://developer.wikimedia.org">Developers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-statslink"><a href="https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/en.wikipedia.org">Statistics</a></li> <li id="footer-places-cookiestatement"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Cookie_statement">Cookie statement</a></li> <li id="footer-places-mobileview"><a href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&mobileaction=toggle_view_mobile" class="noprint stopMobileRedirectToggle">Mobile view</a></li> </ul> <ul id="footer-icons" class="noprint"> <li id="footer-copyrightico"><a href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/static/images/footer/wikimedia-button.svg" width="84" height="29" alt="Wikimedia Foundation" loading="lazy"></a></li> <li id="footer-poweredbyico"><a href="https://www.mediawiki.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/w/resources/assets/poweredby_mediawiki.svg" alt="Powered by MediaWiki" width="88" height="31" loading="lazy"></a></li> </ul> </footer> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-settings" id="p-dock-bottom"> <ul></ul> </div><script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.config.set({"wgHostname":"mw-web.codfw.main-78f4c97c5d-bn9s5","wgBackendResponseTime":398,"wgPageParseReport":{"limitreport":{"cputime":"0.052","walltime":"0.076","ppvisitednodes":{"value":418,"limit":1000000},"postexpandincludesize":{"value":17740,"limit":2097152},"templateargumentsize":{"value":6556,"limit":2097152},"expansiondepth":{"value":9,"limit":100},"expensivefunctioncount":{"value":0,"limit":500},"unstrip-depth":{"value":0,"limit":20},"unstrip-size":{"value":469,"limit":5000000},"entityaccesscount":{"value":0,"limit":400},"timingprofile":["100.00% 52.979 1 -total"," 99.87% 52.910 2 Template:Blocked_text"," 41.58% 22.029 1 Template:Colocationwebhost"," 39.85% 21.113 2 Template:Replace"," 37.69% 19.968 1 Template:Hidden"," 17.33% 9.182 1 Template:Tlx"," 14.34% 7.599 1 Template:Hidden_begin"," 2.50% 1.327 1 MediaWiki:Wikimedia-globalblocking-blockedtext-mistake"," 2.41% 1.278 1 Template:Hidden_end"," 1.91% 1.013 1 MediaWiki:Wikimedia-globalblocking-blockedtext-mistake-email-steward"]},"scribunto":{"limitreport-timeusage":{"value":"0.010","limit":"10.000"},"limitreport-memusage":{"value":1043274,"limit":52428800}},"cachereport":{"origin":"mw-web.codfw.main-78f4c97c5d-bn9s5","timestamp":"20241129015909","ttl":2592000,"transientcontent":false}}});});</script> </body> </html>