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class="vector-toc-text"> 2.2 The ground game and "On the Road" </div> </a> <ul id="toc-The_ground_game_and_"On_the_Road"-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-After_the_2008_U.S._election" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#After_the_2008_U.S._election"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3 After the 2008 U.S. election </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-After_the_2008_U.S._election-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> Toggle After the 2008 U.S. election subsection </button> <ul id="toc-After_the_2008_U.S._election-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Focus" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Focus"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3.1 Focus </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Focus-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Partnership_with_The_New_York_Times:_2010–2013" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Partnership_with_The_New_York_Times:_2010–2013"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4 Partnership with The New York Times: 2010–2013 </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Partnership_with_The_New_York_Times:_2010–2013-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> Toggle Partnership with The New York Times: 2010–2013 subsection </button> <ul id="toc-Partnership_with_The_New_York_Times:_2010–2013-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Writers" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Writers"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4.1 Writers </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Writers-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Beyond_electoral_politics" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Beyond_electoral_politics"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4.2 Beyond electoral politics </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Beyond_electoral_politics-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-2012_U.S._elections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#2012_U.S._elections"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4.3 2012 U.S. elections </div> </a> <ul id="toc-2012_U.S._elections-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-ESPN_and_ABC_News_affiliation" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#ESPN_and_ABC_News_affiliation"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 5 ESPN and ABC News affiliation </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-ESPN_and_ABC_News_affiliation-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> Toggle ESPN and ABC News affiliation subsection </button> <ul id="toc-ESPN_and_ABC_News_affiliation-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-2014_U.S._elections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a 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<li id="toc-2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 5.5 2023 cost-cutting and 2024 elections </div> </a> <ul id="toc-2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Recognition_and_awards" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Recognition_and_awards"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 6 Recognition and awards </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Recognition_and_awards-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Mascot" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Mascot"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 7 Mascot </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Mascot-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> 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class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-FiveThirtyEight_articles" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#FiveThirtyEight_articles"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 10.2 FiveThirtyEight articles </div> </a> <ul id="toc-FiveThirtyEight_articles-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Further_reading" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Further_reading"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 11 Further reading </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Further_reading-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 12 External links </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header 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line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;">Type of site</div></th><td class="infobox-data">Political analysis and blog</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Available in</th><td class="infobox-data">English</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Owner</th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="/wiki/ABC_News_(United_States)" title="ABC News (United States)">ABC News</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Created by</th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Nate Silver</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">URL</th><td class="infobox-data url"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://abcnews.go.com/538">abcnews.go.com/538</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Commercial</th><td class="infobox-data">Yes</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Registration</th><td class="infobox-data">No</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Launched</th><td class="infobox-data">March 7, 2008 (16 years ago) (2008-03-07)<a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Current status</th><td class="infobox-data category">Online</td></tr></tbody></table> 538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on <a href="/wiki/Opinion_poll" title="Opinion poll">opinion poll</a> analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.<a href="#cite_note-:1-2">[2]</a> Founder <a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Nate Silver</a> left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin.<a href="#cite_note-Brutal_Wonk_Swap-3">[3]</a><a href="#cite_note-Nate_Silver_Exiting-4">[4]</a><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a> 538's new owner Disney hired <a href="/wiki/G._Elliott_Morris" title="G. Elliott Morris">G. Elliott Morris</a> to develop a new model.<a href="#cite_note-Brutal_Wonk_Swap-3">[3]</a><a href="#cite_note-Nate_Silver_Exiting-4">[4]</a> On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages.<a href="#cite_note-:1-2">[2]</a> The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College" title="United States Electoral College">United States electoral college</a>,<a href="#cite_note-faq-6">[538 1]</a> was founded on March 7, 2008, as a <a href="/wiki/Poll_aggregator" title="Poll aggregator">polling aggregation website</a> with a blog created by analyst <a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Nate Silver</a>. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a> online and was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, <a href="/wiki/ESPN" title="ESPN">ESPN</a> acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for <a href="/wiki/ESPN.com" title="ESPN.com">ESPN.com</a>; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014.<a href="#cite_note-7">[6]</a> Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property <a href="/wiki/ABC_News_(United_States)" title="ABC News (United States)">ABC News</a> (also under parent <a href="/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company" title="The Walt Disney Company">The Walt Disney Company</a>). During the <a href="/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary" title="United States presidential primary">presidential primaries</a> and <a href="/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election" title="2008 United States presidential election">general election of 2008</a> the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in <a href="/wiki/Sabermetrics" title="Sabermetrics">sabermetrics</a> to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data".<a href="#cite_note-8">[7]</a><a href="#cite_note-9">[8]</a> Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll".<a href="#cite_note-10">[9]</a> Since the 2008 election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Senate" title="United States Senate">Senate</a>; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for <a href="/wiki/Healthcare_reform_in_the_United_States" title="Healthcare reform in the United States">health care reform</a>, <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a> legislation and <a href="/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_the_United_States" class="mw-redirect" title="LGBT rights in the United States">LGBT rights</a>; elections around the world; <a href="/wiki/Legal_history_of_cannabis_in_the_United_States" title="Legal history of cannabis in the United States">marijuana legalization</a>; and numerous other topics. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the <a href="/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election" title="2012 United States presidential election">2012 presidential election</a> in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. FiveThirtyEight has won numerous awards. These include <a href="/wiki/The_Weblog_Awards_(Bloggies)" title="The Weblog Awards (Bloggies)">Bloggie Awards</a> for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics in 2009 as well as <a href="/wiki/Webby_Award" class="mw-redirect" title="Webby Award">Webbies</a> for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, FiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the <a href="/wiki/Global_Editors_Network" title="Global Editors Network">Global Editors Network</a>. <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Methods">Methods</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Methods">edit</a>]</div> One aspect of the site is Silver's efforts to rank pollsters by accuracy, <a href="/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)#Survey_weights" title="Sampling (statistics)">weight</a> their polls accordingly, and then supplement those polls with his own electoral projections based on <a href="/wiki/Demography" title="Demography">demographics</a> and prior voting patterns. Silver said: "I did think there was room for a more sophisticated way of handling these things."<a href="#cite_note-WSJ-11">[10]</a><a href="#cite_note-STATS-12">[11]</a> FiveThirtyEight weighs pollsters' historical track records through a complex methodology,<a href="#cite_note-13">[538 2]</a> and assigns them values to indicate "Pollster-Introduced Error". At its base, Silver's method is similar to other analysts' approaches to taking advantage of the multiple polls that are conducted within each state: he averaged the polling results. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic. The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would neither reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com: if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or <a href="/wiki/Local_regression" title="Local regression">LOESS</a>. While adopting such an approach in his own analysis, Silver reasoned that there was additional information available in polls from "similar" states that might help to fill the gaps in information about the trends in a given state. Accordingly, he adapted an approach that he had previously used in his <a href="/wiki/PECOTA" title="PECOTA">baseball forecasting</a>: using <a href="/wiki/Nearest_neighbor_search" title="Nearest neighbor search">nearest neighbor analysis</a> he first identified "most similar states" and then factored into his electoral projections for a given state the polling information from "similar states". He carried this approach one step further by also factoring national polling trends into the estimates for a given state. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state. Furthermore, a basic intuition that Silver drew from his analysis of the <a href="/wiki/2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries" title="2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries">2008 Democratic party primary elections</a> was that the voting history of a state or Congressional district provided clues to current voting. This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in <a href="/wiki/2008_North_Carolina_Democratic_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="2008 North Carolina Democratic primary">North Carolina</a> and <a href="/wiki/2008_Indiana_Democratic_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="2008 Indiana Democratic primary">Indiana</a>, for example.<a href="#cite_note-Poblano_Model-14">[12]</a> Using such information allowed Silver to come up with estimates of the vote preferences even in states for which there were few if any polls. For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states", Silver estimated a "538 <a href="/wiki/Regression_analysis" title="Regression analysis">regression</a>" using historical voting information along with <a href="/wiki/Demography" title="Demography">demographic</a> characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll (equivalent to the actually available polls from that state). This approach helped to stabilize his projections, because if there were few if any polls in a given state, the state forecast was largely determined by the 538 regression estimate. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Transparency_of_pollster_ratings">Transparency of pollster ratings</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Transparency of pollster ratings">edit</a>]</div> On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings.<a href="#cite_note-15">[538 3]</a><a href="#cite_note-16">[13]</a> Silver responded on 538: "Where's the transparency? Well, it's here [citing his June 6 article], in an article that contains 4,807 words and 18 footnotes. Every detail of how the pollster ratings are calculated is explained. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one".<a href="#cite_note-17">[538 4]</a> As for why the complete 538 polling database had not been released publicly, Silver responded: "The principal reason is because I don't know that I'm legally entitled to do so. The polling database was compiled from approximately eight or ten distinct data sources, which were disclosed in a comment which I posted shortly after the pollster ratings were released, and which are detailed again at the end of this article. These include some subscription services, and others from websites that are direct competitors of this one. Although polls contained in these databases are ultimately a matter of the public record and clearly we feel as though we have every right to use them for research purposes, I don't know what rights we might have to re-publish their data in full." Silver also commented on the fact that the 538 ratings had contributed to <a href="/wiki/Markos_Moulitsas" title="Markos Moulitsas">Markos Moulitsas</a>'s decision to end <a href="/wiki/Daily_Kos" title="Daily Kos">Daily Kos</a>'s use of <a href="/wiki/Research_2000" title="Research 2000">Research 2000</a> as its pollster.<a href="#cite_note-18">[14]</a> On June 11, 2010, Mark Blumenthal also commented on the question of transparency in an article in the <a href="/wiki/National_Journal" title="National Journal">National Journal</a> titled "Transparency In Rating: Nate Silver's Impressive Ranking Of Pollsters' Accuracy Is Less Impressive In Making Clear What Data Is Used".<a href="#cite_note-19">[15]</a> He noted that in the case of Research 2000 there were some discrepancies between what Silver reported and what the pollster itself reported. Other researchers questioned aspects of the methodology.<a href="#cite_note-20">[16]</a> On June 16, 2010, Silver announced on his blog that he is willing to give all pollsters who he had included in his rating a list of their polls that he had in his archive, along with the key information that he used (poll marginals, sample size, dates of administration); and he encouraged the pollsters to examine the lists and the results to compare them with the pollster's own record and make corrections.<a href="#cite_note-21">[538 5]</a> In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings,<a href="#cite_note-22">[538 6]</a> as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the years 1998–2012.<a href="#cite_note-23">[17]</a> In addition to updating his pollster ratings, he published an updated methodological report.<a href="#cite_note-24">[538 7]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Origin">Origin</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Origin">edit</a>]</div> <figure class="mw-default-size mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg/220px-FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="24" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg/330px-FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg/440px-FiveThirtyEight_Logo.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="502" data-file-height="54" /></a><figcaption>Logo for FiveThirtyEight until 2023</figcaption></figure> Nate Silver started FiveThirtyEight in early March 2008, published under the <a href="/wiki/Pseudonym" title="Pseudonym">pseudonym</a> Poblano, the same name that he had used since November 2007 when he began publishing a diary on the <a href="/wiki/Blog" title="Blog">political blog</a> <a href="/wiki/Daily_Kos" title="Daily Kos">Daily Kos</a>.<a href="#cite_note-Daily_Kos-Poblano-25">[18]</a> The name FiveThirtyEight derives from the 538 electors in the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College" title="United States Electoral College">United States Electoral College</a>.<a href="#cite_note-26">[19]</a> Writing for Daily Kos, Silver had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on <a href="/wiki/Super_Tuesday,_2008" title="Super Tuesday, 2008">Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008</a>.<a href="#cite_note-27">[20]</a><a href="#cite_note-28">[21]</a> From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus <a href="/wiki/American_Samoa" title="American Samoa">American Samoa</a>, Poblano predicted that <a href="/wiki/Barack_Obama" title="Barack Obama">Barack Obama</a> would come away with 859 delegates, and <a href="/wiki/Hillary_Clinton" title="Hillary Clinton">Hillary Clinton</a> 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. Based on this result, <a href="/wiki/New_York_Times" class="mw-redirect" title="New York Times">New York Times</a> <a href="/wiki/Op-ed" title="Op-ed">op-ed</a> columnist <a href="/wiki/Bill_Kristol" title="Bill Kristol">William Kristol</a> wrote: "And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio".<a href="#cite_note-29">[22]</a> FiveThirtyEight gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the <a href="/wiki/2008_North_Carolina_Democratic_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="2008 North Carolina Democratic primary">North Carolina</a> and <a href="/wiki/2008_Indiana_Democratic_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="2008 Indiana Democratic primary">Indiana</a> Democratic party primaries on May 6, 2008. As Mark Blumenthal wrote in <a href="/wiki/National_Journal" title="National Journal">National Journal</a>, "Over the last week, an <a href="/wiki/Anonymous_blog" title="Anonymous blog">anonymous blogger</a> who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data. ... Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina. ... But a funny thing happened. The model got it right."<a href="#cite_note-Poblano_Model-14">[12]</a> Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in other states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections.<a href="#cite_note-WSJ-11">[10]</a> On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers.<a href="#cite_note-30">[538 8]</a> After that date, he published just four more diaries on Daily Kos.<a href="#cite_note-Daily_Kos-Poblano-25">[18]</a> As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. In 2008, <a href="/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports" title="Rasmussen Reports">Rasmussen Reports</a> had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator".<a href="#cite_note-31">[23]</a> At the same time, FiveThirtyEight's daily "Today's Polls" column began to be mirrored on "The Plank", a blog published by <a href="/wiki/The_New_Republic" title="The New Republic">The New Republic</a>.<a href="#cite_note-32">[24]</a> In July 2008, the site began to report regular updates of projections of 2008 U.S. Senate races. Special procedures were developed relying on both polls and <a href="/wiki/Demographic_analysis" class="mw-redirect" title="Demographic analysis">demographic analysis</a>. The projections were updated on a weekly basis.<a href="#cite_note-33">[538 9]</a> By early October 2008, FiveThirtyEight approached 2.5 million visitors per week, while averaging approximately 400,000 per weekday.<a href="#cite_note-34">[538 10]</a> During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million <a href="/wiki/Pageview" title="Pageview">page views</a>.<a href="#cite_note-35">[538 11]</a> On Election Day, November 4, 2008, the site had nearly 5 million page views.<a href="#cite_note-NYT-2008/11/10-36">[25]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Final_projections_of_2008_elections">Final projections of 2008 elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Final projections of 2008 elections">edit</a>]</div> In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for <a href="/wiki/Barack_Obama" title="Barack Obama">Barack Obama</a> and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).<a href="#cite_note-37">[538 12]</a> Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in <a href="/wiki/Indiana" title="Indiana">Indiana</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district" title="Nebraska's 2nd congressional district">2nd congressional district</a> of <a href="/wiki/Nebraska" title="Nebraska">Nebraska</a>, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected <a href="/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election" title="2008 United States presidential election">national popular vote differential</a> was below the actual figure of 7.2 points. The forecasts for the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Senate" title="United States Senate">Senate</a> proved to be correct for every race, but the near stalemate in <a href="/wiki/Minnesota" title="Minnesota">Minnesota</a> led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In <a href="/wiki/Alaska" title="Alaska">Alaska</a>, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent <a href="/wiki/Ted_Stevens" title="Ted Stevens">Ted Stevens</a> conceded the seat to Democrat <a href="/wiki/Mark_Begich" title="Mark Begich">Mark Begich</a>, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.<a href="#cite_note-38">[26]</a> In <a href="/wiki/Georgia_(U.S._state)" title="Georgia (U.S. state)">Georgia</a>, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican <a href="/wiki/Saxby_Chambliss" title="Saxby Chambliss">Saxby Chambliss</a>, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="The_ground_game_and_"On_the_Road"">The ground game and "On the Road"</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: The ground game and "On the Road"">edit</a>]</div> During the 2008 electoral campaign, <a href="/wiki/Sean_Quinn_(writer)" title="Sean Quinn (writer)">Sean Quinn</a>, a second contributor, drew on his knowledge and experience with campaign organizations to evaluate the <a href="/wiki/Grassroots" title="Grassroots">ground game</a> and <a href="/wiki/Get_out_the_vote" title="Get out the vote">"get out the vote"</a> strategies of the McCain and Obama campaign teams. A <a href="/wiki/Poker_player" class="mw-redirect" title="Poker player">poker player</a>, Quinn drew an analogy between Barack Obama's electoral strategy and a poker player having multiple "outs" for winning a hand.<a href="#cite_note-39">[27]</a> In September, Quinn launched a series of essays under the name On the Road.<a href="#cite_note-40">[28]</a> Quinn traveled from state to state telling the story of the campaign from the electoral battleground, drawing on observations and interviews with <a href="/wiki/Grassroots" title="Grassroots">grassroots</a> campaign workers. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="After_the_2008_U.S._election">After the 2008 U.S. election</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: After the 2008 U.S. election">edit</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Focus">Focus</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Focus">edit</a>]</div> During the first two months after the election, no major innovations in content were introduced. A substantial percentage of the articles focused on Senatorial races: the runoff in Georgia, won by <a href="/wiki/Saxby_Chambliss" title="Saxby Chambliss">Saxby Chambliss</a>; recounts of votes in Alaska (won by <a href="/wiki/Mark_Begich" title="Mark Begich">Mark Begich</a>), and Minnesota (<a href="/wiki/Al_Franken" title="Al Franken">Al Franken</a> vs. <a href="/wiki/Norm_Coleman" title="Norm Coleman">Norm Coleman</a>); and the appointments of Senatorial replacements in Colorado, New York, and Illinois. After <a href="/wiki/First_inauguration_of_Barack_Obama" title="First inauguration of Barack Obama">President Obama's inauguration</a>, <a href="/wiki/Sean_Quinn_(writer)" title="Sean Quinn (writer)">Sean Quinn</a> reported that he was moving to Washington, D.C., to continue political writing from that locale.<a href="#cite_note-41">[538 13]</a> On February 4, 2009, he became the first blogger to join the <a href="/wiki/White_House_press_corps" title="White House press corps">White House press corps</a>.<a href="#cite_note-42">[538 14]</a> After that time, however, he contributed only a handful of articles to FiveThirtyEight. During the post-2008 election period Silver devoted attention to developing some tools for the analysis of forthcoming <a href="/wiki/2010_United_States_elections" title="2010 United States elections">2010 Congressional elections</a>,<a href="#cite_note-43">[538 15]</a><a href="#cite_note-44">[538 16]</a> as well as discussing policy issues and the policy agenda for the Obama administration, especially economic policies.<a href="#cite_note-45">[538 17]</a><a href="#cite_note-46">[538 18]</a> He developed a list of 2010 Senate races in which he made monthly updates of predicted party turnover.<a href="#cite_note-47">[538 19]</a> Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage.<a href="#cite_note-48">[29]</a> He wrote a series of columns investigating the credibility of polls by Georgia-based firm Strategic Vision, LLC. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. Later, he uncovered indirect evidence that Strategic Vision may have gone as far as to fabricate the results of a citizenship survey taken by <a href="/wiki/Oklahoma" title="Oklahoma">Oklahoma</a> high school students, which led him to denounce Strategic Vision as "disreputable and fraudulent".<a href="#cite_note-49">[30]</a><a href="#cite_note-50">[538 20]</a><a href="#cite_note-51">[538 21]</a><a href="#cite_note-52">[538 22]</a><a href="#cite_note-53">[538 23]</a><a href="#cite_note-54">[538 24]</a><a href="#cite_note-55">[31]</a><a href="#cite_note-56">[a]</a> FiveThirtyEight devoted more than a dozen articles to the <a href="/wiki/2009_Iranian_presidential_election" title="2009 Iranian presidential election">Iranian presidential election in June 2009</a>, assessing of the quality of the vote counting. International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election;<a href="#cite_note-57">[538 25]</a> then posts by Silver, <a href="/wiki/Andrew_Gelman" title="Andrew Gelman">Andrew Gelman</a> and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications.<a href="#cite_note-58">[538 26]</a> FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail.<a href="#cite_note-59">[538 27]</a><a href="#cite_note-60">[538 28]</a> FiveThirtyEight writers Schaller, Gelman, and Silver also gave extensive coverage to the January 19, 2010 <a href="/wiki/Massachusetts" title="Massachusetts">Massachusetts</a> special election to the U.S. Senate. The "538 model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican <a href="/wiki/Scott_Brown_(politician)" title="Scott Brown (politician)">Scott Brown</a> would win.<a href="#cite_note-61">[538 29]</a> In spring 2010, FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election" title="2010 United Kingdom general election">United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6</a>, with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win.<a href="#cite_note-62">[538 30]</a> Following a number of preview posts in January<a href="#cite_note-63">[538 31]</a> and February,<a href="#cite_note-64">[538 32]</a> Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry<a href="#cite_note-65">[538 33]</a><a href="#cite_note-66">[538 34]</a><a href="#cite_note-67">[538 35]</a> and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats,<a href="#cite_note-68">[538 36]</a> while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman<a href="#cite_note-70">[b]</a> developed a seat projection model. The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election.<a href="#cite_note-71">[538 37]</a> In April 2010, <a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a> published Silver's predictions for the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election" title="2010 United Kingdom general election">2010 United Kingdom General Election</a>. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of <a href="/wiki/Uniform_national_swing" title="Uniform national swing">uniform swing</a> to predict the outcome of elections. However, by applying his own methodology, Silver produced very different results, which suggested that a <a href="/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)" title="Conservative Party (UK)">Conservative</a> victory might have been the most likely outcome.<a href="#cite_note-72">[33]</a> After a series of articles, including critiques and responses to other electoral analysts, his "final projection" was published on the eve of the election.<a href="#cite_note-73">[538 38]</a> In the end, Silver's projections were off the mark, particularly compared with those of some other organizations, and Silver wrote a post mortem on his blog.<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/05-74">[538 39]</a> Silver examined the pitfalls of the forecasting process,<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/05-74">[538 39]</a> while Sexton discussed the final government agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.<a href="#cite_note-75">[538 40]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Partnership_with_The_New_York_Times:_2010–2013">Partnership with The New York Times: 2010–2013</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Partnership with The New York Times: 2010–2013">edit</a>]</div> On June 3, 2010, Silver announced that in early August the blog would be "relaunched under a <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">NYTimes.com</a> domain".<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/06-76">[538 41]</a><a href="#cite_note-77">[34]</a><a href="#cite_note-78">[35]</a> The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first FiveThirtyEight blog article online in The New York Times.<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/08/25-79">[538 42]</a> On June 3, 2010, The New York Times and Silver announced that FiveThirtyEight had formed a partnership under which the blog would be hosted by the Times for a period of three years.<a href="#cite_note-80">[36]</a> In legal terms, FiveThirtyEight granted a "license" to the Times to publish the blog. The blog would be listed under the "Politics" tab of the News section of the Times.<a href="#cite_note-niemanlab.org/2010/06-81">[37]</a> FiveThirtyEight would thus be subject to and benefit from editing and technical production by the Times, while FiveThirtyEight would be responsible for creating the content. Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the Times.<a href="#cite_note-niemanlab.org/2010/06-81">[37]</a><a href="#cite_note-82">[38]</a> Under terms of the agreement, Silver would also write monthly articles for the print version of both the newspaper and the <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Magazine" title="The New York Times Magazine">Sunday magazine</a>.<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/06-76">[538 41]</a> Silver did not move his blog to the highest bidder, because he was concerned with maintaining his own voice while gaining the exposure and technical support that a larger media company could provide. "There's a bit of a <a href="/wiki/Groucho_Marx" title="Groucho Marx">Groucho Marx</a> quality to it [Silver has said]. ... You shouldn't want to belong to any media brand that seems desperate to have you as a member, even though they'll probably offer the most cash".<a href="#cite_note-83">[39]</a> The first column of the renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus appeared in the Times on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog.<a href="#cite_note-84">[538 43]</a> All columns from the original FiveThirtyEight were also archived for public access.<a href="#cite_note-About-NYT-85">[40]</a> Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_States_elections" title="2010 United States elections">2010 elections</a> to the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_elections" title="2010 United States Senate elections">U.S. Senate</a>, the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections" title="2010 United States House of Representatives elections">U.S. House of Representatives</a>, and state <a href="/wiki/2010_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" title="2010 United States gubernatorial elections">Governorships</a>. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House.<a href="#cite_note-86">[538 44]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Writers">Writers</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Writers">edit</a>]</div> When the transition to The New York Times was announced, Silver listed his staff of writers for the first time.<a href="#cite_note-About-NYT-85">[40]</a> However, of the seven listed writers, only three of them had published on 538/New York Times by late December 2010: Silver, Renard Sexton and Hale Stewart. <a href="/wiki/Andrew_Gelman" title="Andrew Gelman">Andrew Gelman</a> contributed again in early 2011.<a href="#cite_note-87">[538 45]</a> Brian McCabe published his first article in January 2011.<a href="#cite_note-88">[538 46]</a><a href="#cite_note-90">[c]</a> Beginning in 2011, one writer who emerged as a regular contributor was Micah Cohen. Cohen provided a periodic "Reads and Reactions" column in which he summarized Silver's articles for the previous couple of weeks, as well as reactions to them in the media and other blogs, and suggested some additional readings related to the subject of Silver's columns. Silver identified Cohen as "my news assistant".<a href="#cite_note-91">[538 47]</a> Cohen also contributed additional columns on occasion.<a href="#cite_note-92">[538 48]</a> On September 12, 2011, Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to <a href="/wiki/John_M._Sides" title="John M. Sides">John Sides</a>, a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month. Mr. Sides is also the founder of the blog <a href="/wiki/The_Monkey_Cage_(blog)" title="The Monkey Cage (blog)">The Monkey Cage</a>, which was named the 2010 Blog of the Year by <a href="/wiki/The_Week" title="The Week">The Week</a> magazine".<a href="#cite_note-93">[538 49]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Beyond_electoral_politics">Beyond electoral politics</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Beyond electoral politics">edit</a>]</div> While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the <a href="/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_tournament" title="NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament">March Madness</a><a href="#cite_note-94">[538 50]</a><a href="#cite_note-95">[538 51]</a><a href="#cite_note-96">[42]</a> and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,<a href="#cite_note-97">[538 52]</a> the <a href="/wiki/Bowl_Championship_Series" title="Bowl Championship Series">B.C.S.</a> rankings in NCAA college football,<a href="#cite_note-98">[43]</a> the <a href="/wiki/National_Basketball_Association" title="National Basketball Association">NBA</a>,<a href="#cite_note-99">[538 53]</a><a href="#cite_note-100">[538 54]</a><a href="#cite_note-101">[538 55]</a> and <a href="/wiki/Major_League_Baseball" title="Major League Baseball">Major League Baseball</a> matters ranging from the 2011 attendance at the <a href="/wiki/New_York_Mets" title="New York Mets">New York Mets</a>' <a href="/wiki/Citi_Field" title="Citi Field">Citi Field</a><a href="#cite_note-102">[538 56]</a> to the historic 2011 collapse of the <a href="/wiki/Boston_Red_Sox" title="Boston Red Sox">Boston Red Sox</a>.<a href="#cite_note-103">[538 57]</a> The site has also posted forecasts for the <a href="/wiki/Academy_Awards" title="Academy Awards">Academy Awards</a>.<a href="#cite_note-104">[44]</a> In addition, FiveThirtyEight sometimes turned its attention to other topics, such as the economics of blogging,<a href="#cite_note-105">[538 58]</a> the financial ratings by <a href="/wiki/Standard_%26_Poor%27s" class="mw-redirect" title="Standard & Poor's">Standard & Poors</a>,<a href="#cite_note-106">[538 59]</a> economists' tendency to underpredict unemployment levels,<a href="#cite_note-107">[538 60]</a> and the economic impact and media coverage of <a href="/wiki/Hurricane_Irene" title="Hurricane Irene">Hurricane Irene (2011)</a>.<a href="#cite_note-108">[538 61]</a><a href="#cite_note-109">[538 62]</a> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png/300px-Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="179" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png/450px-Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/Occupy-wall-st-vs-tea-party.png 2x" data-file-width="451" data-file-height="269" /></a><figcaption>Adapted from a FiveThirtyEight October 2011 graph published in The New York Times<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07-110">[538 63]</a></figcaption></figure> FiveThirtyEight published a graph showing different growth curves of the news stories covering <a href="/wiki/Tea_Party_movement" title="Tea Party movement">Tea Party</a> and <a href="/wiki/Occupy_Wall_Street" title="Occupy Wall Street">Occupy Wall Street</a> protests. Silver pointed out that conflicts with the police caused the sharpest increases in news coverage of the protests<a href="#cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07-110">[538 63]</a> and assessed the geography of the protests by analyzing news reports of the size and location of events across the United States.<a href="#cite_note-111">[538 64]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2012_U.S._elections">2012 U.S. elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: 2012 U.S. elections">edit</a>]</div> FiveThirtyEight rolled out its 2012 general election forecasting model on June 7, 2012. The model forecast both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote, with the latter being central to the exercise and involving a forecast of each state. In the initial forecast, Barack Obama was estimated to have a 61.8% chance of winning the electoral vote. The website provided maps and statistics about the electoral outcomes in each state as well as nationally. Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones.<a href="#cite_note-112">[538 65]</a> On the morning of November 6, Election Day, Silver's model gave President Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the electoral votes.<a href="#cite_note-113">[538 66]</a> The 538 model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.<a href="#cite_note-114">[45]</a><a href="#cite_note-115">[d]</a> Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus not only correctly predicted all 50 states, but also all nine "<a href="/wiki/Swing_state" title="Swing state">swing states</a>".<a href="#cite_note-116">[46]</a> In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls".<a href="#cite_note-117">[47]</a> An independent analysis of Silver's state-by-state projections, assessing whether the percentages of votes that the candidates actually received fell within the "margin of error" of Silver's forecasts, found that "48 out of 50 states actually fell within his margin of error, giving him a success rate of 96%. And assuming that his projected margin of error figures represent 95 percent confidence intervals, which it is likely they did, Silver performed just about exactly as well as he would expect to over 50 trials. Wizard, indeed".<a href="#cite_note-118">[48]</a><a href="#cite_note-119">[49]</a> Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.<a href="#cite_note-120">[50]</a><a href="#cite_note-121">[51]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="ESPN_and_ABC_News_affiliation">ESPN and ABC News affiliation</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: ESPN and ABC News affiliation">edit</a>]</div> In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join <a href="/wiki/ESPN" title="ESPN">ESPN</a>.<a href="#cite_note-122">[52]</a> In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like <a href="/wiki/Grantland" title="Grantland">Grantland</a>, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com."<a href="#cite_note-123">[53]</a> According to Silver, the focus of FiveThirtyEight in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it's going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it's going to be a politics site with sports thrown in. ... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously. ... It's a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It's certainly good with presidential elections. But we don't really see politics as how the site is going to grow".<a href="#cite_note-124">[54]</a> FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. The lead story by Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization. ... We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas – politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features".<a href="#cite_note-fox-125">[538 67]</a> FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN-affiliated stage on March 17, 2014. As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others.<a href="#cite_note-126">[538 68]</a> By March 2016, this staff had nearly doubled to 37 listed on the masthead, and 7 listed as contributors.<a href="#cite_note-127">[55]</a> The site produced articles under 5 headings: politics, economics, science and health, (cultural) life, and sports. In addition to feature articles it produced <a href="/wiki/Podcast" title="Podcast">podcasts</a> on a range of subjects. Monthly traffic to the site grew steadily from about 2.8 million <a href="/wiki/Unique_user" title="Unique user">unique visitors</a> in April 2014 to 10.7 million unique visitors in January 2016.<a href="#cite_note-128">[56]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2014_U.S._elections">2014 U.S. elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: 2014 U.S. elections">edit</a>]</div> On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.<a href="#cite_note-129">[538 69]</a> At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".<a href="#cite_note-130">[538 70]</a> About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.<a href="#cite_note-131">[538 71]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2016_Oscars_predictions">2016 Oscars predictions</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: 2016 Oscars predictions">edit</a>]</div> FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly.<a href="#cite_note-132">[57]</a> The website also compiled a list of other predictions made by other people using different methods.<a href="#cite_note-133">[58]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2016_U.S._elections">2016 U.S. elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: 2016 U.S. elections">edit</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Presidential_primary_elections">Presidential primary elections</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Presidential primary elections">edit</a>]</div> FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. For each contest, FiveThirtyEight produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models.<a href="#cite_note-134">[59]</a> As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that <a href="/wiki/Donald_Trump" title="Donald Trump">Donald Trump</a> "isn't a real candidate".<a href="#cite_note-135">[60]</a> When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist <a href="/wiki/Jim_Rutenberg" title="Jim Rutenberg">Jim Rutenberg</a> wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls in his favor ... they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".<a href="#cite_note-136">[61]</a> In a long retrospective, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump", published in May 2016 after Trump had become the likely nominee, Silver reviewed how he had erred in evaluating Trump's chances early in the primary campaign. Silver wrote, "The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight – including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned – our early estimates of Trump's chances weren't based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we [call] 'subjective odds' – which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things".<a href="#cite_note-137">[62]</a> On the Democratic side, FiveThirtyEight argued that Senator <a href="/wiki/Bernie_Sanders" title="Bernie Sanders">Bernie Sanders</a> could "lose everywhere else after Iowa and New Hampshire"<a href="#cite_note-138">[63]</a> and that the "Democratic establishment would rush in to squash" him if he does not.<a href="#cite_note-139">[64]</a> Sanders went on to win 23 states in <a href="/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries" title="2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries">the primaries</a>. <a href="/wiki/Fairness_and_Accuracy_in_Reporting" class="mw-redirect" title="Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting">Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting</a>, a progressive nonprofit media watch group, wrote in May 2016 that FiveThirtyEight "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackery – that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions."<a href="#cite_note-fair-140">[65]</a> FiveThirtyEight's predictions for each state primary, both for the Republican and the Democratic party nominations, were based on statistical analysis, not on the analyst's opinions. The core data employed were polls, which FiveThirtyEight aggregated for each state (while also considering national polls) using essentially the same method it had employed since 2008. In the 2016 primaries, the projections also took into account endorsements.<a href="#cite_note-141">[66]</a> The website also kept track of the accumulation of national party convention delegates.<a href="#cite_note-142">[67]</a> In a comparison of prediction success published by <a href="/wiki/Bloomberg_News" title="Bloomberg News">Bloomberg News</a> after the primary season was completed, FiveThirtyEight's prediction success tied for the highest percentage of correct primary poll winners, at 92%; but it lagged behind PredictWise in predicting a larger set of primaries.<a href="#cite_note-143">[68]</a> Notably, even with FiveThirtyEight's track record of correctly predicting elections that pollsters get wrong, it still missed Bernie Sanders's upset victory in the <a href="/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_primary" class="mw-redirect" title="2016 Michigan Democratic primary">Michigan primary</a>, for instance, regarded as "one of the biggest upsets in modern political history".<a href="#cite_note-fair-140">[65]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Presidential_general_election">Presidential general election</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Presidential general election">edit</a>]</div> The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had <a href="/wiki/Hillary_Clinton" title="Hillary Clinton">Hillary Clinton</a> with a 71% chance to win the <a href="/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election" title="2016 United States presidential election">2016 United States presidential election</a>,<a href="#cite_note-144">[69]</a> while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.<a href="#cite_note-Silver5-145">[70]</a><a href="#cite_note-146">[71]</a> FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on both Clinton's small lead in general polls, but also on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, mixed with Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012.<a href="#cite_note-eleccol-147">[72]</a> The main issues pointed out by the forecast model was the imbalance of Clinton's improvement in very populated states like Texas, Georgia (projected safe for Republican) and California (projected safe for Democrats);<a href="#cite_note-eleccol-147">[72]</a> mixed with her inability to attract white voters without a college degree, an increasing demographic in swing states, in addition to a potential decline in turnout from minorities.<a href="#cite_note-148">[73]</a> In consequence, Clinton's probabilities to win the Electoral College were not improving.<a href="#cite_note-eleccol-147">[72]</a> Silver also focused on state-by-state numbers in so-called 'must-win' states like Ohio and Florida, plus a consideration of polls' margin of error in advantages of less than three points.<a href="#cite_note-149">[74]</a> <a href="/wiki/Donald_Trump" title="Donald Trump">Donald Trump</a> won the election. FiveThirtyEight projected a much higher probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,<a href="#cite_note-Silver5-145">[70]</a> a projection which was criticized by <a href="/wiki/Ryan_Grim" title="Ryan Grim">Ryan Grim</a> of <a href="/wiki/HuffPost" title="HuffPost">the Huffington Post</a> as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.<a href="#cite_note-150">[75]</a> While FiveThirtyEight expressed that "nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin", the forecaster also made points about the uncertainty of poll trackers in some cases, the considerable number of undecided voters, and the unpredictable outcome in traditional swing states.<a href="#cite_note-151">[76]</a> In April 2018, it was announced that FiveThirtyEight would be transferred to <a href="/wiki/ABC_News_(United_States)" title="ABC News (United States)">ABC News</a> from <a href="/wiki/ESPN,_Inc." class="mw-redirect" title="ESPN, Inc.">ESPN, Inc.</a>, majority owned by <a href="/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company" title="The Walt Disney Company">The Walt Disney Company</a>.<a href="#cite_note-:0-152">[77]</a> ABC News Live streaming channel was launched on Roku in May 2019.<a href="#cite_note-153">[78]</a> With the reorganization creating the <a href="/wiki/Walt_Disney_Direct-to-Consumer_and_International" class="mw-redirect" title="Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer and International">Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer and International</a> segment in March 2018, ABC News Digital and Live Streaming (websites, ABC News Live and FiveThirtyEight) was transferred to the new segment.<a href="#cite_note-154">[79]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2020_U.S._elections">2020 U.S. elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: 2020 U.S. elections">edit</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Redesign_of_forecast">Redesign of forecast</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Redesign of forecast">edit</a>]</div> In early August 2020, FiveThirtyEight announced that for their <a href="/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election" title="2020 United States presidential election">2020 general election</a> forecast they had designed a new graphical structure. This included going with modular structure, a "ball swarm" design for the chart depicting each candidate's chances, and the addition of a "forecast <a href="/wiki/Mascot" title="Mascot">mascot</a>" named Fivey Fox.<a href="#cite_note-foxname-155">[538 72]</a> An episode of "Chart Chat" discussing the design described the direction saying "FiveThirtyEight has leaned heavily towards a cutesy and engaging approach. The Fivey Fox mascot pops up next to most charts with call-outs to more further information."<a href="#cite_note-156">[80]</a> Fivey Fox would also issue reminders to readers of "the potential for extreme outcomes" according to <a href="/wiki/Jessica_Hullman" title="Jessica Hullman">Jessica Hullman</a>, in a piece written for <a href="/wiki/The_Hill_(newspaper)" title="The Hill (newspaper)">The Hill</a>. Hullman also said of the design that the introduction of the mascot, in conjunction with the new simplified look of the page, was "perhaps the strongest indicator that Silver intends to emphasize uncertainty" in his coverage of the 2020 election.<a href="#cite_note-157">[81]</a> Jasmine Mithani, visual journalist with FiveThirtyEight, said in an interview when asked about the complaints of new mascot said "I think the biggest complaint about Fivey Fox is that some people find it infantilizing, but that wasn't our intention" and that the motivation for including the character was to help make the forecast more of "a teaching tool".<a href="#cite_note-158">[82]</a> In November 2020, <a href="/wiki/Rolling_Stone" title="Rolling Stone">Rolling Stone</a> reported that Fivey Fox had reached over 7,000 followers on his dedicated <a href="/wiki/Twitter" title="Twitter">Twitter</a> account.<a href="#cite_note-159">[83]</a> The forecast favored the actual winner of 48 states, the District of Columbia, and four of the five congressional districts awarding electoral votes, only missing <a href="/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida" title="2020 United States presidential election in Florida">Florida</a>, <a href="/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina" title="2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina">North Carolina</a>, and <a href="/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Maine" title="2020 United States presidential election in Maine">Maine's 2nd congressional district</a>. In those three contests the forecast had favored Biden, but they were carried by Trump. Despite correctly forecasting Biden to win nationally, they overestimated Biden's margins in some battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and underestimated Trump's margins in states such as Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Their forecast showed Democrats winning Senate races in North Carolina and Maine, which Republicans ended up winning. However, their forecast did correctly predict that the Democrats would take control of the Senate. In the House elections, their forecast favored Democrats to gain seats, yet Democrats suffered a net loss of 10 seats. The actual house results fell outside their 80% confidence interval, with Democrats winning 222 seats, lower than the confidence interval's lower bound of 225.<a href="#cite_note-160">[84]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections">2023 cost-cutting and 2024 elections</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: 2023 cost-cutting and 2024 elections">edit</a>]</div> In January 2023, <a href="/wiki/The_Daily_Beast" title="The Daily Beast">The Daily Beast</a> reported that the website was on the "chopping block" amid cost-cutting measures by ABC News, and a sale of the website was being considered. It also noted that several key employees including managing editor Micah Cohen, politics editor Sarah E. Frostenson and sports editor Sara Ziegler had left the website and their positions had not been filled.<a href="#cite_note-161">[85]</a> An ABC spokesperson responded to the report, asserting "no imminent decisions about [its] relationship with FiveThirtyEight."<a href="#cite_note-162">[86]</a> Nonetheless, in April, Silver announced that he would be leaving the site amid widespread layoffs at ABC News, who said the website would be "streamlined" ahead of the 2024 election cycle; editor Chadwick Matlin was among the many laid off.<a href="#cite_note-163">[87]</a> According to Silver, two thirds of FiveThirtyEight's staff were cut in one day.<a href="#cite_note-164">[88]</a> Since the layoffs, FiveThirtyEight's sports and science coverage has ground to a halt, with the website mostly returning to its roots of exclusive politics coverage.<a href="#cite_note-165">[89]</a><a href="#cite_note-166">[90]</a> In May 2023, ABC News hired <a href="/wiki/G._Elliott_Morris" title="G. Elliott Morris">G. Elliott Morris</a>, a data journalist for <a href="/wiki/The_Economist" title="The Economist">The Economist</a> who has often been described as a rival of Silver,<a href="#cite_note-167">[91]</a> to head the site as editorial director of data analytics.<a href="#cite_note-168">[92]</a> At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the <a href="/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election" title="2024 United States presidential election">2024 election</a>. In the leadup to <a href="/wiki/Withdrawal_of_Joe_Biden_from_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election" title="Withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 United States presidential election">Biden's withdrawal</a>, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election.<a href="#cite_note-Semafor2024-169">[93]</a> Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his <a href="/wiki/Incumbent#Incumbency_advantage" title="Incumbent">incumbency</a>, and at worst as being "buggy".<a href="#cite_note-Semafor2024-169">[93]</a><a href="#cite_note-170">[94]</a> The election forecast remained suspended for a month after Biden withdrew, before being replaced by a new model for <a href="/wiki/Kamala_Harris" title="Kamala Harris">Kamala Harris</a> versus Trump that put more emphasis on polling.<a href="#cite_note-171">[95]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Recognition_and_awards">Recognition and awards</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Recognition and awards">edit</a>]</div> <ul><li>In September 2008, FiveThirtyEight became the first blog ever selected as a Notable Narrative by the <a href="/wiki/Nieman_Foundation_for_Journalism" title="Nieman Foundation for Journalism">Nieman Foundation for Journalism</a> at <a href="/wiki/Harvard_University" title="Harvard University">Harvard University</a>. According to the Foundation, "In his posts, former economic analyst and baseball-stats wunderkind Nate Silver explains the presidential race, using the dramatic tension inherent in the run-up to Election Day to drive his narrative. Come November 5, we will have a winner and a loser, but in the meantime, Silver spins his story from the myriad polls that confound us lesser mortals".<a href="#cite_note-172">[96]</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a> described FiveThirtyEight in November 2008 as "one of the breakout online stars of the year".<a href="#cite_note-NYT-2008/11/10-36">[25]</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/HuffPost" title="HuffPost">Huffington Post</a> columnist Jason Linkins named FiveThirtyEight as No. 1 of "Ten Things that Managed to Not Suck in 2008, Media Edition".<a href="#cite_note-173">[97]</a></li> <li>FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage".<a href="#cite_note-174">[98]</a></li> <li>FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards.<a href="#cite_note-175">[99]</a></li> <li>In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of <a href="/wiki/The_Week" title="The Week">The Week</a>, for his work on FiveThirtyEight.<a href="#cite_note-176">[100]</a></li> <li>In September 2009, FiveThirtyEight's predictive model was featured as the cover story in STATS: The Magazine for Students of Statistics.<a href="#cite_note-STATS-12">[11]</a></li> <li>In November 2009, FiveThirtyEight was named one of "Our Favorite Blogs of 2009" ("Fifty blogs we just can't get enough of") by <a href="/wiki/PC_Magazine" class="mw-redirect" title="PC Magazine">PC Magazine</a>.<a href="#cite_note-177">[101]</a></li> <li>In December 2009, FiveThirtyEight was recognized by <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Magazine" title="The New York Times Magazine">The New York Times Magazine</a> in its "Ninth Annual Year in Ideas" for conducting "Forensic Polling Analysis" detective work on the possible falsification of polling data by a major polling firm.<a href="#cite_note-178">[102]</a><a href="#cite_note-180">[e]</a></li> <li>In November 2010, editor-in-chief of <a href="/wiki/Politico" title="Politico">Politico</a> <a href="/wiki/John_F._Harris" title="John F. Harris">John F. Harris</a>, writing in <a href="/wiki/Forbes" title="Forbes">Forbes</a> magazine, listed Silver as one of seven bloggers among "The Most Powerful People on Earth".<a href="#cite_note-181">[104]</a></li> <li>In June 2011, <a href="/wiki/Time_(magazine)" title="Time (magazine)">Time</a>'s "The Best Blogs of 2011" named FiveThirtyEight one of its Essential Blogs.<a href="#cite_note-182">[105]</a></li> <li>May 2012: FiveThirtyEight won a <a href="/wiki/Webby_Award" class="mw-redirect" title="Webby Award">Webby Award</a> for "Best Political Blog" from the <a href="/wiki/International_Academy_of_Digital_Arts_and_Sciences" title="International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences">International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences</a> in the 16th annual Webby Awards.<a href="#cite_note-183">[106]</a></li> <li>April 2013: FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award for "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences in the 17th annual Webby Awards.<a href="#cite_note-184">[107]</a></li> <li>June 2016: FiveThirtyEight was named the "Data Journalism Website of the Year" for 2016 by the <a href="/wiki/Global_Editors_Network" title="Global Editors Network">Global Editors Network</a>, a Paris-based organization that promotes innovation in newsrooms around the world. FiveThirtyEight won an additional award for "News Data App of the Year (large newsroom)" for "Swing the Election", an interactive project by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman.<a href="#cite_note-185">[108]</a></li> <li>September 2017: The <a href="/wiki/National_Academies_of_Sciences,_Engineering,_and_Medicine" title="National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine">National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine</a> awarded a 2017 Communication Award in the "Online" category to "FiveThirtyEight's Maggie Koerth-Baker, <a href="/wiki/Ben_Casselman" title="Ben Casselman">Ben Casselman</a>, Anna Maria Barry-Jester, and Carl Bialik for 'Gun Deaths in America'. 'A balanced and fact-filled examination of an unfolding crisis, with compelling interactives that are meticulously attentive to data quality and statistics.' (italics in the original)<a href="#cite_note-186">[109]</a></li> <li>June 2018: "The Atlas of Redistricting" was named "News App of the Year" by the Data Journalism Awards sponsored by the <a href="/wiki/Global_Editors_Network" title="Global Editors Network">Global Editors Network</a>.<a href="#cite_note-187">[110]</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Mascot">Mascot</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: Mascot">edit</a>]</div> Fivey Fox is the mascot of FiveThirtyEight.<a href="#cite_note-foxname-155">[538 72]</a> This is in reference to a phrase attributed to <a href="/wiki/Archilochus" title="Archilochus">Archilochus</a>: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing".<a href="#cite_note-fox-125">[538 67]</a> The name "Fivey" is a reference to the website's name, FiveThirtyEight. Fivey Fox is colored orange, white, and beige with comically sized black glasses and has white colored sock-like paws. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: See also">edit</a>]</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239009302">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{clear:left;float:left;margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/28px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/42px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg/56px-Newspaper_nicu_buculei_01.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="160" data-file-height="160" /><a href="/wiki/Portal:Journalism" title="Portal:Journalism">Journalism portal</a></li><li class="portalbox-entry"><a href="/wiki/File:A_coloured_voting_box.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/01/A_coloured_voting_box.svg/28px-A_coloured_voting_box.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/01/A_coloured_voting_box.svg/42px-A_coloured_voting_box.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/01/A_coloured_voting_box.svg/56px-A_coloured_voting_box.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="160" data-file-height="160" /></a><a href="/wiki/Portal:Politics" title="Portal:Politics">Politics portal</a></li></ul> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College" title="United States Electoral College">United States Electoral College</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Electoral-vote.com" title="Electoral-vote.com">Electoral-vote.com</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/RealClearPolitics" title="RealClearPolitics">RealClearPolitics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Europe_Elects" title="Europe Elects">Europe Elects</a></li></ul> <div style="clear:both;" class=""></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=24" title="Edit section: Notes">edit</a>]</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-lower-alpha"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-56"><a href="#cite_ref-56">^</a> Several national firms use the name "Strategic Vision"; only one has been releasing political polling results to the media. </li> <li id="cite_note-70"><a href="#cite_ref-70">^</a> Berman first worked with FiveThirtyEight when he made some provocative discoveries of anomalies in the reported results of the 2009 Election in Iran.<a href="#cite_note-69">[32]</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-90"><a href="#cite_ref-90">^</a> Why other writers played only a limited role in FiveThirtyEight/NYT was explained in February 2011 in an article in Poynter.<a href="#cite_note-89">[41]</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-115"><a href="#cite_ref-115">^</a> Although Silver put a "toss-up" tag on the presidential election in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the state light blue and stated that there was a 50.3% probability that Obama would win a plurality of the state's votes. </li> <li id="cite_note-180"><a href="#cite_ref-180">^</a> The first of a series of articles challenged Strategic Vision LLC to reveal key information.<a href="#cite_note-179">[103]</a> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: References">edit</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="General_citations">General citations</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: General citations">edit</a>]</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239543626"><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com">"FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools"</a>. <a href="/wiki/WHOIS" title="WHOIS">WHOIS</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170924211248/http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com">Archived</a> from the original on September 24, 2017. 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Retrieved June 19, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Stumper&rft.atitle=Where+We+Were+on+June+16%2C+2004--and+What+It+Means+for+Nov.+4%2C+2008&rft.date=2008-06-16&rft.aulast=Romano&rft.aufirst=Andrew&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.blog.newsweek.com%2Fblogs%2Fstumper%2Farchive%2F2008%2F06%2F16%2Fthe-electoral-map-is-obama-outperforming-kerry-or-is-mccain-outperforming-bush.aspx&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a> Andrew Romano (June 16, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469">"Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Newsweek" title="Newsweek">Newsweek</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080619111251/http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469">Archived</a> June 19, 2008, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz">"FAQ and Statement of Methodology"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. June 9, 2008. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110519104700/https://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz">Archived</a> from the original on May 19, 2011. Retrieved June 19, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=FAQ+and+Statement+of+Methodology&rft.date=2008-06-09&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2FView%3Fdocid%3Ddhn8hrb6_4c43866dz&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-WSJ-11">^ <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_11-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_11-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBialik2008" class="citation news cs1"><a href="/wiki/Carl_Bialik" title="Carl Bialik">Bialik, Carl</a> (June 2, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/">"Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers"</a>. The Wall Street Journal. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080606201959/https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/">Archived</a> from the original on June 6, 2008. Retrieved June 19, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Wall+Street+Journal&rft.atitle=Baseball+Analyst+Draws+Fans+by+Crunching+Election+Numbers&rft.date=2008-06-02&rft.aulast=Bialik&rft.aufirst=Carl&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Fnumbersguy%2Fbaseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-STATS-12">^ <a href="#cite_ref-STATS_12-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-STATS_12-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFFelder2009" class="citation news cs1">Felder, Adam (September 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.causeweb.org/stats/STATS_50.pdf">"Case study: The FiveThirtyEight.com Predictive Model of the 2008 Presidential Election"</a> (PDF). STATS. No. 50. pp. 3–9. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/1053-8607">1053-8607</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120430100954/http://www.causeweb.org/stats/STATS_50.pdf">Archived</a> (PDF) from the original on April 30, 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=STATS&rft.atitle=Case+study%3A+The+FiveThirtyEight.com+Predictive+Model+of+the+2008+Presidential+Election&rft.issue=50&rft.pages=3-9&rft.date=2009-09&rft.issn=1053-8607&rft.aulast=Felder&rft.aufirst=Adam&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.causeweb.org%2Fstats%2FSTATS_50.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-Poblano_Model-14">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Poblano_Model_14-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-Poblano_Model_14-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBlumenthal2008" class="citation news cs1">Blumenthal, Mark (May 8, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php">"The Poblano Model"</a>. <a href="/wiki/National_Journal" title="National Journal">National Journal</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090414152429/http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php">Archived</a> from the original on April 14, 2009. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=National+Journal&rft.atitle=The+Poblano+Model&rft.date=2008-05-08&rft.aulast=Blumenthal&rft.aufirst=Mark&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationaljournal.com%2Fnjonline%2Fmp_20080507_8254.php&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100612092520/http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/09/wheres_the_transparency_in_pollster_ratings.html">"Where's the Transparency in Pollster Ratings?"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/09/wheres_the_transparency_in_pollster_ratings.html">the original</a> on June 12, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Where%27s+the+Transparency+in+Pollster+Ratings%3F&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalwire.com%2Farchives%2F2010%2F06%2F09%2Fwheres_the_transparency_in_pollster_ratings.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-18"><a href="#cite_ref-18">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/9/874403/-Polling">"Polling"</a>. Daily Kos. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100612093042/http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/9/874403/-Polling">Archived</a> from the original on June 12, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Daily+Kos&rft.atitle=Polling&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstoryonly%2F2010%2F6%2F9%2F874403%2F-Polling&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-19"><a href="#cite_ref-19">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100614193729/http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20100611_6800.php">"Transparency In Rating"</a>. National Journal Online. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20100611_6800.php">the original</a> on June 14, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Transparency+In+Rating&rft.pub=National+Journal+Online&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationaljournal.com%2Fnjonline%2Fpo_20100611_6800.php&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-20"><a href="#cite_ref-20">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/are_nate_silvers_pollster_rati.php">"Pollster.com"</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Pollster.com&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pollster.com%2Fblogs%2Fare_nate_silvers_pollster_rati.php&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988">[<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Link_rot" title="Wikipedia:Link rot">permanent dead link</a>‍] </li> <li id="cite_note-23"><a href="#cite_ref-23">^</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/pollster-ratings">pollster-ratings</a> on <a href="/wiki/GitHub" title="GitHub">GitHub</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-Daily_Kos-Poblano-25">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Daily_Kos-Poblano_25-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-Daily_Kos-Poblano_25-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dailykos.com/user/Poblano">"Poblano's Profile"</a>. Daily Kos. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150205170107/http://www.dailykos.com/user/poblano">Archived</a> from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Daily+Kos&rft.atitle=Poblano%27s+Profile&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fuser%2FPoblano&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-26"><a href="#cite_ref-26">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2009" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (February 28, 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirty-nine/">"FiveThirty … Nine?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220524100459/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirty-nine/">Archived</a> from the original on May 24, 2022. Retrieved June 13, 2022.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=FiveThirty+%E2%80%A6+Nine%3F&rft.date=2009-02-28&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Ffivethirty-nine%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-27"><a href="#cite_ref-27">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667">"Mo. Parents Clueless About Kerry"</a>. Daily Kos. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081230165700/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667">Archived</a> from the original on December 30, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Daily+Kos&rft.atitle=Mo.+Parents+Clueless+About+Kerry&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2008%2F1%2F31%2F75516%2F0667&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-28"><a href="#cite_ref-28">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080208101728/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/5/42033/29727/442/450099">"Daily Kos: State of the Nation"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/5/42033/29727/442/450099">the original</a> on February 8, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Daily+Kos%3A+State+of+the+Nation&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2008%2F2%2F5%2F42033%2F29727%2F442%2F450099&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-29"><a href="#cite_ref-29">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html">"Obama's Path to Victory"</a>. <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a>. February 11, 2008. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161229070940/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 29, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Obama%27s+Path+to+Victory&rft.date=2008-02-11&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2008%2F02%2F11%2Fopinion%2F11kristol.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-31"><a href="#cite_ref-31">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757">"Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130116024716/http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757">Archived</a> from the original on January 16, 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Rasmussen+Reports+to+Partner+with+FiveThirtyEight.com&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2Fdiscuss%2Fduboard.php%3Faz%3Dview_all%26address%3D132x6361757&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-32"><a href="#cite_ref-32">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080614232907/http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx">"Today's Polls: The Bounce hits the Badger State – The Plank"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx">the original</a> on June 14, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Today%27s+Polls%3A+The+Bounce+hits+the+Badger+State+%E2%80%93+The+Plank&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.tnr.com%2Ftnr%2Fblogs%2Fthe_plank%2Farchive%2F2008%2F06%2F12%2Ftoday-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-NYT-2008/11/10-36">^ <a href="#cite_ref-NYT-2008/11/10_36-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-NYT-2008/11/10_36-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFClifford2008" class="citation news cs1">Clifford, Stephanie (November 9, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html">"Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama"</a>. The New York Times. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150224063509/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html">Archived</a> from the original on February 24, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Finding+Fame+With+a+Prescient+Call+for+Obama&rft.date=2008-11-09&rft.aulast=Clifford&rft.aufirst=Stephanie&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2008%2F11%2F10%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2F10silver.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-38"><a href="#cite_ref-38">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/18/alaska.senate.race/index.html">"Stevens concedes Alaska Senate race"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081205153027/http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/18/alaska.senate.race/index.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 5, 2008. Retrieved November 19, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Stevens+concedes+Alaska+Senate+race&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2008%2FPOLITICS%2F11%2F18%2Falaska.senate.race%2Findex.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-39"><a href="#cite_ref-39">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFFroeb2008" class="citation news cs1">Froeb, Ian (October 6, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.riverfronttimes.com/2008-10-08/news/two-of-a-kind-clayton-high-grad-sean-quinn-and-poker-buddy-baseball-stat-head-nate-silver-crunch-the-electoral-college-numbers-on-fivethirtyeight-com">"Two of a Kind: Clayton High grad Sean Quinn and poker buddy/baseball stat head Nate Silver crunch the Electoral College numbers on FiveThirtyEight.com"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Riverfront_Times" title="Riverfront Times">Riverfront Times</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Riverfront+Times&rft.atitle=Two+of+a+Kind%3A+Clayton+High+grad+Sean+Quinn+and+poker+buddy%2Fbaseball+stat+head+Nate+Silver+crunch+the+Electoral+College+numbers+on+FiveThirtyEight.com&rft.date=2008-10-06&rft.aulast=Froeb&rft.aufirst=Ian&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.riverfronttimes.com%2F2008-10-08%2Fnews%2Ftwo-of-a-kind-clayton-high-grad-sean-quinn-and-poker-buddy-baseball-stat-head-nate-silver-crunch-the-electoral-college-numbers-on-fivethirtyeight-com&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-40"><a href="#cite_ref-40">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFQuinn" class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/Sean_Quinn_(writer)" title="Sean Quinn (writer)">Quinn, Sean</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/on%20the%20road">"Articles labeled "On the Road""</a>. FiveThirtyEight.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Articles+labeled+%22On+the+Road%22&rft.aulast=Quinn&rft.aufirst=Sean&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2Fsearch%2Flabel%2Fon%2520the%2520road&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-48"><a href="#cite_ref-48">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/359c9ae4-a457-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0.html">"Interview with Nate Silver"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Financial_Times" title="Financial Times">Financial Times</a>. September 18, 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230930213608/https://www.ft.com/content/359c9ae4-a457-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0">Archived</a> from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 24, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Financial+Times&rft.atitle=Interview+with+Nate+Silver&rft.date=2009-09-18&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F359c9ae4-a457-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-49"><a href="#cite_ref-49">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/us/03survey.html">"Polling Firm's Reprimand Rattles News Media"</a>. The New York Times. October 3, 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161229070929/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/us/03survey.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 29, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Polling+Firm%27s+Reprimand+Rattles+News+Media&rft.date=2009-10-03&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2009%2F10%2F03%2Fus%2F03survey.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-55"><a href="#cite_ref-55">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBialik2009" class="citation news cs1">Bialik, Carl (October 7, 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-NB-805">"Polling Controversy Raises Questions of Disclosure"</a>. WSJ. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160207214833/https://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/polling-controversy-raises-questions-of-disclosure-805/">Archived</a> from the original on February 7, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=WSJ&rft.atitle=Polling+Controversy+Raises+Questions+of+Disclosure&rft.date=2009-10-07&rft.aulast=Bialik&rft.aufirst=Carl&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2FBL-NB-805&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-69"><a href="#cite_ref-69">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSmith2009" class="citation news cs1">Smith, James F. (June 25, 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2009/06/25/statistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election/">"Statistics wizard from Winchester makes a splash in Iran election"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Boston.com" title="Boston.com">Boston.com</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100505171425/http://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2009/06/25/statistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election/">Archived</a> from the original on May 5, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Boston.com&rft.atitle=Statistics+wizard+from+Winchester+makes+a+splash+in+Iran+election&rft.date=2009-06-25&rft.aulast=Smith&rft.aufirst=James+F.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boston.com%2Fnews%2Feducation%2Fhigher%2Farticles%2F2009%2F06%2F25%2Fstatistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-72"><a href="#cite_ref-72">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBurkeman2010" class="citation news cs1">Burkeman, Oliver (April 27, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/27/nate-silver-labour-swing">"Baseball nerd who predicted Obama's win foresees Labour meltdown"</a>. The Guardian. London. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130910113014/http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/27/nate-silver-labour-swing">Archived</a> from the original on September 10, 2013. Retrieved May 19, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Guardian&rft.atitle=Baseball+nerd+who+predicted+Obama%27s+win+foresees+Labour+meltdown&rft.date=2010-04-27&rft.aulast=Burkeman&rft.aufirst=Oliver&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2F2010%2Fapr%2F27%2Fnate-silver-labour-swing&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-77"><a href="#cite_ref-77">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation pressrelease cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://investors.nytco.com/news-and-events/press-releases/news-details/2010/The-New-York-Times-Will-Incorporate-the-Blog-FiveThirtyEight-into-the-Politics-Section-of-NYTimescom/default.aspx">"The New York Times Will Incorporate the Blog FiveThirtyEight into the Politics Section of NYTimes.com"</a> (Press release). <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Company" title="The New York Times Company">The New York Times Company</a>. June 3, 2010. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230428025419/https://investors.nytco.com/news-and-events/press-releases/news-details/2010/The-New-York-Times-Will-Incorporate-the-Blog-FiveThirtyEight-into-the-Politics-Section-of-NYTimescom/default.aspx">Archived</a> from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+New+York+Times+Will+Incorporate+the+Blog+FiveThirtyEight+into+the+Politics+Section+of+NYTimes.com&rft.date=2010-06-03&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Finvestors.nytco.com%2Fnews-and-events%2Fpress-releases%2Fnews-details%2F2010%2FThe-New-York-Times-Will-Incorporate-the-Blog-FiveThirtyEight-into-the-Politics-Section-of-NYTimescom%2Fdefault.aspx&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-78"><a href="#cite_ref-78">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/business/media/04silver.html">"Times to Host Blog on Politics and Polls"</a>. The New York Times. June 4, 2010. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161229071308/http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/business/media/04silver.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 29, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Times+to+Host+Blog+on+Politics+and+Polls&rft.date=2010-06-04&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F06%2F04%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2F04silver.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-80"><a href="#cite_ref-80">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBrian_Stelter2010" class="citation web cs1">Brian Stelter (June 3, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150909212618/http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight/">"The Times to Host Political Polling Site FiveThirtyEight"</a>. Media Decoder Blog. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight/">the original</a> on September 9, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Media+Decoder+Blog&rft.atitle=The+Times+to+Host+Political+Polling+Site+FiveThirtyEight&rft.date=2010-06-03&rft.au=Brian+Stelter&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F06%2F03%2Fthe-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-niemanlab.org/2010/06-81">^ <a href="#cite_ref-niemanlab.org/2010/06_81-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-niemanlab.org/2010/06_81-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGarber2010" class="citation web cs1">Garber, Megan (June 3, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/06/articles-of-incorporation-nate-silver-and-jim-roberts-on-the-nyts-absorption-of-fivethirtyeight/">"Articles of incorporation: Nate Silver and Jim Roberts on the NYT's absorption of FiveThirtyEight"</a>. NiemanLab. <a href="/wiki/Harvard_College" title="Harvard College">Harvard College</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160419074743/http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/06/articles-of-incorporation-nate-silver-and-jim-roberts-on-the-nyts-absorption-of-fivethirtyeight/">Archived</a> from the original on April 19, 2016. Retrieved October 16, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=NiemanLab&rft.atitle=Articles+of+incorporation%3A+Nate+Silver+and+Jim+Roberts+on+the+NYT%27s+absorption+of+FiveThirtyEight&rft.date=2010-06-03&rft.aulast=Garber&rft.aufirst=Megan&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.niemanlab.org%2F2010%2F06%2Farticles-of-incorporation-nate-silver-and-jim-roberts-on-the-nyts-absorption-of-fivethirtyeight%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-82"><a href="#cite_ref-82">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/08/2010-06-08_getting_with_the_times_nate_silvers_hip_fivethirtyeight_blog_joins_the_new_york_.html">"FiveThirtyEight blog gets with the Times"</a>. NY Daily News. June 8, 2010. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100613014838/http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/08/2010-06-08_getting_with_the_times_nate_silvers_hip_fivethirtyeight_blog_joins_the_new_york_.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 13, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=NY+Daily+News&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight+blog+gets+with+the+Times&rft.date=2010-06-08&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nydailynews.com%2Fnews%2Fnational%2F2010%2F06%2F08%2F2010-06-08_getting_with_the_times_nate_silvers_hip_fivethirtyeight_blog_joins_the_new_york_.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-83"><a href="#cite_ref-83">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/business/media/news-consumption-tilts-toward-niche-sites.html">"News Trends Tilt Toward Niche Sites"</a>. The New York Times. September 12, 2011. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160309093326/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/business/media/news-consumption-tilts-toward-niche-sites.html">Archived</a> from the original on March 9, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=News+Trends+Tilt+Toward+Niche+Sites&rft.date=2011-09-12&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F09%2F12%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Fnews-consumption-tilts-toward-niche-sites.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-About-NYT-85">^ <a href="#cite_ref-About-NYT_85-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-About-NYT_85-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140318085522/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/about-fivethirtyeight/">"About FiveThirtyEight"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/about-fivethirtyeight/">the original</a> on March 18, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=About+FiveThirtyEight&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2Fabout-fivethirtyeight%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-89"><a href="#cite_ref-89">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110225020129/http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/">"FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adjusts to New York Times, 6 months after joining the newsroom"</a>. Poynter. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/">the original</a> on February 25, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Poynter&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight%27s+Nate+Silver+adjusts+to+New+York+Times%2C+6+months+after+joining+the+newsroom&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.poynter.org%2Flatest-news%2Ftop-stories%2F120212%2Ffivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-96"><a href="#cite_ref-96">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html">"Nate Silver's Tournament Forecast"</a>. The New York Times. March 18, 2013. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170316182551/http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html?">Archived</a> from the original on March 16, 2017. Retrieved February 21, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver%27s+Tournament+Forecast&rft.date=2013-03-18&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Finteractive%2F2013%2F03%2F18%2Fsports%2Fncaabasketball%2Fnate-bracket.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-98"><a href="#cite_ref-98">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (August 27, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/sports/ncaafootball/in-bcs-popularity-and-pedigree-matter.html">"Popularity and Pedigree Matter in the B.C.S."</a> The New York Times. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20151109235636/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/sports/ncaafootball/in-bcs-popularity-and-pedigree-matter.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 9, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Popularity+and+Pedigree+Matter+in+the+B.C.S.&rft.date=2011-08-27&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F08%2F28%2Fsports%2Fncaafootball%2Fin-bcs-popularity-and-pedigree-matter.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-104"><a href="#cite_ref-104">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHickey2018" class="citation web cs1">Hickey, Walt (March 5, 2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-oscar-predictions-did/">"How Our Oscar Predictions Did"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230125174800/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-oscar-predictions-did/">Archived</a> from the original on January 25, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=How+Our+Oscar+Predictions+Did&rft.date=2018-03-05&rft.aulast=Hickey&rft.aufirst=Walt&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-our-oscar-predictions-did%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-114"><a href="#cite_ref-114">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/">"Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants"</a>. <a href="/wiki/CNET" title="CNET">CNET</a>. CBS Interactive. November 7, 2012. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121107201118/http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/">Archived</a> from the original on November 7, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=CNET&rft.atitle=Obama%27s+win+a+big+vindication+for+Nate+Silver%2C+king+of+the+quants&rft.date=2012-11-07&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.cnet.com%2F8301-13510_3-57546161-21%2Fobamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-116"><a href="#cite_ref-116">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html">"Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51"</a>. The Huffington Post. November 7, 2012. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130309231920/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html">Archived</a> from the original on March 9, 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+Huffington+Post&rft.atitle=Pollster+Predictive+Performance%2C+51+out+of+51&rft.date=2012-11-07&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2Fsimon-jackman%2Fpollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-117"><a href="#cite_ref-117">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJonathan_D._Salant_and_Laura_Curtis" class="citation web cs1">Jonathan D. Salant and Laura Curtis. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121108063430/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election">"Nate Silver-Led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election"</a>. Businessweek.com. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election">the original</a> on November 8, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Businessweek.com&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver-Led+Statistics+Men+Crush+Pundits+in+Election&rft.au=Jonathan+D.+Salant+and+Laura+Curtis&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessweek.com%2Fnews%2F2012-11-07%2Fnate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-118"><a href="#cite_ref-118">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/11/nobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html">"Nobody's perfect: Nate Silver and the imperfect art of prediction (Update)"</a>. Boston.com. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121110000118/http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/11/nobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 10, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Boston.com&rft.atitle=Nobody%27s+perfect%3A+Nate+Silver+and+the+imperfect+art+of+prediction+%28Update%29&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boston.com%2Fsports%2Fblogs%2Fstatsdriven%2F2012%2F11%2Fnobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-119"><a href="#cite_ref-119">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121115083320/http://www.acthomas.ca/comment/2012/11/538s-uncertainty-estimates-are-as-good-as-they-get.html">"538's Uncertainty Estimates Are As Good As They Get"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.acthomas.ca/comment/2012/11/538s-uncertainty-estimates-are-as-good-as-they-get.html">the original</a> on November 15, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=538%27s+Uncertainty+Estimates+Are+As+Good+As+They+Get&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.acthomas.ca%2Fcomment%2F2012%2F11%2F538s-uncertainty-estimates-are-as-good-as-they-get.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-120"><a href="#cite_ref-120">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160201145344/http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/">"Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit?"</a>. CFAR. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/">the original</a> on February 1, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=CFAR&rft.atitle=Was+Nate+Silver+the+Most+Accurate+2012+Election+Pundit%3F&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Frationality.org%2F2012%2F11%2F09%2Fwas-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-121"><a href="#cite_ref-121">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.voteseeing.com/2012/11/2012-presidential-prediction-rankings.html">"2012 Presidential prediction rankings"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121110234310/http://www.voteseeing.com/2012/11/2012-presidential-prediction-rankings.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 10, 2012. Retrieved November 12, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=2012+Presidential+prediction+rankings&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.voteseeing.com%2F2012%2F11%2F2012-presidential-prediction-rankings.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-122"><a href="#cite_ref-122">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/20/business/media/nate-silver-blogger-for-new-york-times-is-to-join-espn-staff.html">"Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff"</a>. The New York Times. July 20, 2013. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170415062133/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/20/business/media/nate-silver-blogger-for-new-york-times-is-to-join-espn-staff.html">Archived</a> from the original on April 15, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver+of+FiveThirtyEight+Blog+Is+to+Join+ESPN+Staff&rft.date=2013-07-20&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2013%2F07%2F20%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Fnate-silver-blogger-for-new-york-times-is-to-join-espn-staff.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-123"><a href="#cite_ref-123">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAmy_Phillips2013" class="citation web cs1">Amy Phillips (July 22, 2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.espnfrontrow.com/2013/07/nate-silver-renowned-statistician-author-and-founder-of-fivethirtyeight-joins-espn-in-multi-faceted-role/">"Nate Silver – Renowned Statistician, Author and Founder of FiveThirtyEight – Joins ESPN in Multi-Faceted Role"</a>. ESPN Front Row. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130725173226/http://frontrow.espn.go.com/2013/07/nate-silver-renowned-statistician-author-and-founder-of-fivethirtyeight-joins-espn-in-multi-faceted-role/">Archived</a> from the original on July 25, 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=ESPN+Front+Row&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver+%E2%80%93+Renowned+Statistician%2C+Author+and+Founder+of+FiveThirtyEight+%E2%80%93+Joins+ESPN+in+Multi-Faceted+Role&rft.date=2013-07-22&rft.au=Amy+Phillips&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espnfrontrow.com%2F2013%2F07%2Fnate-silver-renowned-statistician-author-and-founder-of-fivethirtyeight-joins-espn-in-multi-faceted-role%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-124"><a href="#cite_ref-124">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/nate-silver-interview-fivethirtyeight-espn.html">"Nate Silver Interview: The New FiveThirtyEight"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Intelligencer_(website)" class="mw-redirect" title="Intelligencer (website)">Daily Intelligencer</a>. March 13, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140314115436/http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/nate-silver-interview-fivethirtyeight-espn.html">Archived</a> from the original on March 14, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Daily+Intelligencer&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver+Interview%3A+The+New+FiveThirtyEight&rft.date=2014-03-13&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fnymag.com%2Fdaily%2Fintelligencer%2F2014%2F03%2Fnate-silver-interview-fivethirtyeight-espn.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-127"><a href="#cite_ref-127">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/">"Masthead"</a>. February 14, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150419033448/http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/">Archived</a> from the original on April 19, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Masthead&rft.date=2014-02-14&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fmasthead%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-128"><a href="#cite_ref-128">^</a> Tweet by @NateSilver538 on February 3, 2016, <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1">https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170726173359/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1">Archived</a> July 26, 2017, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-132"><a href="#cite_ref-132">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMcCann2016" class="citation web cs1">McCann, Allison (February 5, 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscars-2016/">"The 2016 Oscars Race"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160206084305/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscars-2016/">Archived</a> from the original on February 6, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+2016+Oscars+Race&rft.date=2016-02-05&rft.aulast=McCann&rft.aufirst=Allison&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fprojects.fivethirtyeight.com%2Foscars-2016%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-133"><a href="#cite_ref-133">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-predictions-2016/">"Every Oscar Prediction We Could Find"</a>. February 26, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160303150357/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-predictions-2016/">Archived</a> from the original on March 3, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Every+Oscar+Prediction+We+Could+Find&rft.date=2016-02-26&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Foscars-predictions-2016%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-134"><a href="#cite_ref-134">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/">"How We're Forecasting The Primaries"</a>. January 12, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160717031302/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/">Archived</a> from the original on July 17, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=How+We%27re+Forecasting+The+Primaries&rft.date=2016-01-12&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-135"><a href="#cite_ref-135">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/">"Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate, In One Chart"</a>. June 16, 2015. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160722184021/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/">Archived</a> from the original on July 22, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Why+Donald+Trump+Isn%27t+A+Real+Candidate%2C+In+One+Chart&rft.date=2015-06-16&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fdatalab%2Fwhy-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-136"><a href="#cite_ref-136">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/business/media/the-republican-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html">"The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost"</a>. The New York Times. May 9, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170222012821/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/business/media/the-republican-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html">Archived</a> from the original on February 22, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=The+Republican+Horse+Race+Is+Over%2C+and+Journalism+Lost&rft.date=2016-05-09&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F05%2F06%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Fthe-republican-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-137"><a href="#cite_ref-137">^</a> Nate Silver, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump: Trump's Nomination Shows the Need for a More Rigorous Approach", FiveThirtyEight, May 18, 2016. <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/">"How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump"</a>. May 18, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160717172928/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/">Archived</a> from the original on July 17, 2016. Retrieved July 18, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=How+I+Acted+Like+a+Pundit+and+Screwed+up+on+Donald+Trump&rft.date=2016-05-18&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-138"><a href="#cite_ref-138">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/">"Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else"</a>. July 8, 2015. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160716102808/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/">Archived</a> from the original on July 16, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Bernie+Sanders+Could+Win+Iowa+And+New+Hampshire.+Then+Lose+Everywhere+Else.&rft.date=2015-07-08&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fdatalab%2Fbernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-139"><a href="#cite_ref-139">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge/">"What To Make Of The Bernie Sanders Surge"</a>. June 17, 2015. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160724081201/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge/">Archived</a> from the original on July 24, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=What+To+Make+Of+The+Bernie+Sanders+Surge&rft.date=2015-06-17&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fdatalab%2Fwhat-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-fair-140">^ <a href="#cite_ref-fair_140-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-fair_140-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fair.org/home/538-sacrifices-integrity-to-go-after-sanders-on-independents/">"538 Sacrifices Integrity to Go After Sanders on Independents"</a>. May 29, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160714095738/http://fair.org/home/538-sacrifices-integrity-to-go-after-sanders-on-independents/">Archived</a> from the original on July 14, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=538+Sacrifices+Integrity+to+Go+After+Sanders+on+Independents&rft.date=2016-05-29&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffair.org%2Fhome%2F538-sacrifices-integrity-to-go-after-sanders-on-independents%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-141"><a href="#cite_ref-141">^</a> Nate Silver, "How We're Forecasting the Primaries", FiveThirtyEight, January 12, 2016 <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/">"How We're Forecasting the Primaries"</a>. January 12, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160717031302/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/">Archived</a> from the original on July 17, 2016. Retrieved July 17, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=How+We%27re+Forecasting+the+Primaries&rft.date=2016-01-12&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-142"><a href="#cite_ref-142">^</a> Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman, "Who's On Track for the Nomination?" FiveThirtyEight, June 15, 2016 <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/">"Who's on Track for the Nomination?"</a>. February 29, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160301063318/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/">Archived</a> from the original on March 1, 2016. Retrieved May 9, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Who%27s+on+Track+for+the+Nomination%3F&rft.date=2016-02-29&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fprojects.fivethirtyeight.com%2Felection-2016%2Fdelegate-targets%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-143"><a href="#cite_ref-143">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTartar2016" class="citation news cs1">Tartar, Andre (June 29, 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170302132749/https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions">"Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Bloomberg_News" title="Bloomberg News">Bloomberg News</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions">the original</a> on March 2, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Ranking+the+2016+Presidential+Primary+Polls+and+Predictions&rft.date=2016-06-29&rft.aulast=Tartar&rft.aufirst=Andre&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fpolitics%2Farticles%2F2016-06-29%2Franking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-144"><a href="#cite_ref-144">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2016" class="citation web cs1">Silver, Nate (November 8, 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/">"Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161109044042/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/">Archived</a> from the original on November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Final+Election+Update%3A+There%27s+A+Wide+Range+Of+Outcomes%2C+And+Most+Of+Them+Come+Up+Clinton&rft.date=2016-11-08&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Ffinal-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-Silver5-145">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Silver5_145-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-Silver5_145-1">b</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/">Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump a Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161114003644/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/">Archived</a> November 14, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>; FiveThirtyEight; Nate Silver; November 11, 2016 </li> <li id="cite_note-146"><a href="#cite_ref-146">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAllen2016" class="citation news cs1">Allen, Kate (November 9, 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html">"Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Toronto_Star" title="Toronto Star">Toronto Star</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161109095542/https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 10, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Toronto+Star&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver%27s+FiveThirtyEight+proves+its+worth+with+another+close+election+prediction&rft.date=2016-11-09&rft.aulast=Allen&rft.aufirst=Kate&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestar.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fuselection%2F2016%2F11%2F09%2Fnate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-eleccol-147">^ <a href="#cite_ref-eleccol_147-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-eleccol_147-1">b</a> <a href="#cite_ref-eleccol_147-2">c</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/">"The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing"</a>. November 1, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161221013034/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/">Archived</a> from the original on December 21, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+Odds+Of+An+Electoral+College-Popular+Vote+Split+Are+Increasing&rft.date=2016-11-01&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fthe-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-148"><a href="#cite_ref-148">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWasserman2016" class="citation web cs1">Wasserman, David (September 15, 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/">"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170126153824/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/">Archived</a> from the original on January 26, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=How+Trump+Could+Win+The+White+House+While+Losing+The+Popular+Vote&rft.date=2016-09-15&rft.aulast=Wasserman&rft.aufirst=David&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-149"><a href="#cite_ref-149">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/">"Election Update: Don't Ignore the Polls — Clinton Leads, But It's A Close Race"</a>. November 6, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161231170311/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/">Archived</a> from the original on December 31, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Election+Update%3A+Don%27t+Ignore+the+Polls+%E2%80%94+Clinton+Leads%2C+But+It%27s+A+Close+Race&rft.date=2016-11-06&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Felection-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-150"><a href="#cite_ref-150">^</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f?">Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump's Direction</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161114004104/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f">Archived</a> November 14, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>; <a href="/wiki/Huffington_Post" class="mw-redirect" title="Huffington Post">Huffington Post</a>; Ryan Grim; November 5, 2016 </li> <li id="cite_note-151"><a href="#cite_ref-151">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/">"Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton"</a>. November 8, 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161109044042/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/">Archived</a> from the original on November 9, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Final+Election+Update%3A+There%27s+A+Wide+Range+Of+Outcomes%2C+And+Most+Of+Them+Come+Up+Clinton&rft.date=2016-11-08&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Ffinal-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-:0-152"><a href="#cite_ref-:0_152-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSteinberg2018" class="citation news cs1">Steinberg, Brian (April 17, 2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/abc-news-ffivethirtyeight-espn-nate-silver-1202755646/">"ABC News Takes Over Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight"</a>. Variety. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180619035841/https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/abc-news-ffivethirtyeight-espn-nate-silver-1202755646/">Archived</a> from the original on June 19, 2018. 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Silver Bulletin.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Silver+Bulletin&rft.atitle=Why+I+don%27t+buy+538%27s+new+election+model&rft.date=2024-07-18&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.natesilver.net%2Fp%2Fwhy-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-171"><a href="#cite_ref-171">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMorris" class="citation web cs1">Morris, G. Elliott. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjusting-election-model-harris-versus-trump/story?id=112563822">"How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump"</a>. ABC News. 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Retrieved May 31, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Electoral+Projections+Done+Right&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.niemanstoryboard.org%2F2008%2F10%2F03%2Felectoral-projections-done-right%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-173"><a href="#cite_ref-173">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/24/2008-the-year-in-media-hi_n_153362.html">"2008: The Year In Media Highlights"</a>. The Huffington Post. January 24, 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081225232843/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/24/2008-the-year-in-media-hi_n_153362.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 25, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+Huffington+Post&rft.atitle=2008%3A+The+Year+In+Media+Highlights&rft.date=2009-01-24&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2F2008%2F12%2F24%2F2008-the-year-in-media-hi_n_153362.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-174"><a href="#cite_ref-174">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091018051726/http://2008.weblogawards.org/news/the-2008-weblog-award-winners/">"The 2008 Weblog Awards Winners"</a>. Archived from the original on October 18, 2009. Retrieved January 16, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+2008+Weblog+Awards+Winners&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2F2008.weblogawards.org%2Fnews%2Fthe-2008-weblog-award-winners%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"><code class="cs1-code">{{<a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_web" title="Template:Cite web">cite web</a>}}</code>: CS1 maint: unfit URL (<a href="/wiki/Category:CS1_maint:_unfit_URL" title="Category:CS1 maint: unfit URL">link</a>) </li> <li id="cite_note-175"><a href="#cite_ref-175">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://2009.bloggies.com/">"Ninth Annual Weblog Awards: The 2009 Bloggies"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090318045329/http://2009.bloggies.com/">Archived</a> from the original on March 18, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Ninth+Annual+Weblog+Awards%3A+The+2009+Bloggies&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2F2009.bloggies.com%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-176"><a href="#cite_ref-176">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100110083746/http://www.theweek.com/opinionawards/winners.html">"The Week Opinion Awards"</a>. <a href="/wiki/The_Week" title="The Week">The Week</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theweek.com/opinionawards/winners.html">the original</a> on January 10, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+Week&rft.atitle=The+Week+Opinion+Awards&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theweek.com%2Fopinionawards%2Fwinners.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-177"><a href="#cite_ref-177">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2356002,00.asp">"Our Favorite Blogs 2009"</a>. PCMAG. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140302082417/http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0%2C2817%2C2356002%2C00.asp">Archived</a> from the original on March 2, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=PCMAG&rft.atitle=Our+Favorite+Blogs+2009&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcmag.com%2Farticle2%2F0%2C2817%2C2356002%2C00.asp&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-178"><a href="#cite_ref-178">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFShea" class="citation news cs1">Shea, Christopher. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/projects/magazine/ideas/2009/#f-1">"The Ninth Annual Year in Ideas – Forensic Polling Analysis"</a>. <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Magazine" title="The New York Times Magazine">The New York Times Magazine</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091212061055/http://www.nytimes.com/projects/magazine/ideas/2009/#f-1">Archived</a> from the original on December 12, 2009. Retrieved October 13, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times+Magazine&rft.atitle=The+Ninth+Annual+Year+in+Ideas+%E2%80%93+Forensic+Polling+Analysis&rft.aulast=Shea&rft.aufirst=Christopher&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fprojects%2Fmagazine%2Fideas%2F2009%2F%23f-1&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-179"><a href="#cite_ref-179">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/few-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html">"A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091225051429/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/few-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 25, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=A+Few+More+Questions+for+a+Sketchy+Pollster&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F09%2Ffew-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-181"><a href="#cite_ref-181">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJohn_F._Harris2010" class="citation web cs1">John F. Harris (November 3, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1122/powerful-people-10-john-harris-chait-hot-air-my-picks-bloggers.html">"My Picks: Bloggers"</a>. Forbes. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20101113030217/http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1122/powerful-people-10-john-harris-chait-hot-air-my-picks-bloggers.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 13, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Forbes&rft.atitle=My+Picks%3A+Bloggers&rft.date=2010-11-03&rft.au=John+F.+Harris&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fforbes%2F2010%2F1122%2Fpowerful-people-10-john-harris-chait-hot-air-my-picks-bloggers.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-182"><a href="#cite_ref-182">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation magazine cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110609175645/http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0%2C28804%2C2075431_2075428_2075417%2C00.html">"Five Thirty Eight – Time's 25 Best Blogs of 2011"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Time_(magazine)" title="Time (magazine)">Time</a>. June 6, 2011. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2075431_2075428_2075417,00.html">the original</a> on June 9, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Time&rft.atitle=Five+Thirty+Eight+%E2%80%93+Time%27s+25+Best+Blogs+of+2011&rft.date=2011-06-06&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.time.com%2Ftime%2Fspecials%2Fpackages%2Farticle%2F0%2C28804%2C2075431_2075428_2075417%2C00.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-183"><a href="#cite_ref-183">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120820093559/http://www.webbyawards.com/webbys/current.php?season=16">"The Webby Awards"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.webbyawards.com/webbys/current.php?season=16">the original</a> on August 20, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+Webby+Awards&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.webbyawards.com%2Fwebbys%2Fcurrent.php%3Fseason%3D16&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-184"><a href="#cite_ref-184">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130412023128/http://winners.webbyawards.com/2013/web/general-website/blog-political">"Blog – Political"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://winners.webbyawards.com/2013/web/general-website/blog-political">the original</a> on April 12, 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Blog+%E2%80%93+Political&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwinners.webbyawards.com%2F2013%2Fweb%2Fgeneral-website%2Fblog-political&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-185"><a href="#cite_ref-185">^</a> David Fi David Wsrestone, "We Won Some Prizes", FiveThirtyEight, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-won-some-prizes/">June 16, 2016</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160617143307/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-won-some-prizes/">Archived</a> June 17, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> </li> <li id="cite_note-186"><a href="#cite_ref-186">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170906180451/https://www.koshland-science-museum.org/article/2017-keck-futures-initiative-communication-awards">"2017 Keck Futures Initiative Communication Awards - Marian Koshland Science Museum"</a>. September 6, 2017. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.koshland-science-museum.org/article/2017-keck-futures-initiative-communication-awards">the original</a> on September 6, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=2017+Keck+Futures+Initiative+Communication+Awards+-+Marian+Koshland+Science+Museum&rft.date=2017-09-06&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.koshland-science-museum.org%2Farticle%2F2017-keck-futures-initiative-communication-awards&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-187"><a href="#cite_ref-187">^</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.datajournalismawards.org/2018-winners/">Data Journalism Awards 2018</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181130163238/https://www.datajournalismawards.org/2018-winners/">Archived</a> November 30, 2018, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>. </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="FiveThirtyEight_articles">FiveThirtyEight articles</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=27" title="Edit section: FiveThirtyEight articles">edit</a>]</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239543626"><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-faq-6"><a href="#cite_ref-faq_6-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2008" class="citation web cs1">Silver, Nate (August 7, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised/">"Frequently Asked Questions"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140227173932/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html">Archived</a> from the original on February 27, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Frequently+Asked+Questions&rft.pub=FiveThirtyEight&rft.date=2008-08-07&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Ffrequently-asked-questions-last-revised%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-13"><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/pollster-ratings-v30.html">"Pollster Ratings v3.0"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080719034906/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/pollster-ratings-v30.html">Archived</a> from the original on July 19, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Pollster+Ratings+v3.0&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2008%2F04%2Fpollster-ratings-v30.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-15"><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html">"Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100621012716/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 21, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Pollster+Ratings+v4.0%3A+Results&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F06%2Fpollster-ratings-v40-results.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-17"><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/on-transparency-hypocrisy-and-research.html">"On Transparency, Hypocrisy, and Research 2000"</a>. 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FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20rankings">the original</a> on January 23, 2013. Retrieved March 28, 2017.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Senate+Forecast%2C+7%2F18%3A+Republican+Outlook+Improves+with+Focus+on+Likely+Voter+Polls&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2Fsearch%2Flabel%2Fsenate%2520rankings&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-34"><a href="#cite_ref-34">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFQuinn2008" class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/Sean_Quinn_(writer)" title="Sean Quinn (writer)">Quinn, Sean</a> (October 3, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html">"On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri"</a>. 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FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081205143611/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/site-note.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 5, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Site+Note&rft.date=2008-11-03&rft.aulast=Quinn&rft.aufirst=Sean&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2008%2F11%2Fsite-note.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-37"><a href="#cite_ref-37">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html">"Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081204075833/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 4, 2008.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Today%27s+Polls+and+Final+Election+Projection%3A+Obama+349%2C+McCain+189&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2008%2F11%2Ftodays-polls-and-final-election.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-41"><a href="#cite_ref-41">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/end-of-beginning.html">"The End of the Beginning"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090125073259/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/end-of-beginning.html">Archived</a> from the original on January 25, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=The+End+of+the+Beginning&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F01%2Fend-of-beginning.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-42"><a href="#cite_ref-42">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/obama-hits-road-to-sell-stimulus-steps.html">"Obama Hits the Road to Sell Stimulus, Steps Up Pressure on Key Senators"</a>. 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FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081216005530/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/appointed-senators-rarely-win-re.html">Archived</a> from the original on December 16, 2008. Retrieved January 9, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Appointed+Senators+Rarely+Win+Re-Election&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2008%2F12%2Fappointed-senators-rarely-win-re.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-44"><a href="#cite_ref-44">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/daddy-where-do-senators-come-from/">"Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. January 9, 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160207145043/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/daddy-where-do-senators-come-from/">Archived</a> from the original on February 7, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Daddy%2C+Where+Do+Senators+Come+From%3F&rft.date=2009-01-09&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fdaddy-where-do-senators-come-from%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-45"><a href="#cite_ref-45">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obamas-agenda-difference-between.html">"Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090124234359/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obamas-agenda-difference-between.html">Archived</a> from the original on January 24, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Obama%27s+Agenda+%26+The+Difference+Between+Tactics+%26+Strategy&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2008%2F11%2Fobamas-agenda-difference-between.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-46"><a href="#cite_ref-46">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/what-are-chances-of-depression.html">"What Are the Chances of a Depression?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090204065040/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/what-are-chances-of-depression.html">Archived</a> from the original on February 4, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=What+Are+the+Chances+of+a+Depression%3F&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F01%2Fwhat-are-chances-of-depression.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-47"><a href="#cite_ref-47">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-january-2009-edition/">"Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. January 7, 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160207100426/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-january-2009-edition/">Archived</a> from the original on February 7, 2016.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Senate+Rankings%2C+January+2009+Edition&rft.date=2009-01-07&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fsenate-rankings-january-2009-edition%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-50"><a href="#cite_ref-50">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html">"Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091124041912/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 24, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Are+Oklahoma+Students+Really+This+Dumb%3F+Or+Is+Strategic+Vision+Really+This+Stupid%3F&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F09%2Fare-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-51"><a href="#cite_ref-51">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html">"Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091111080311/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 11, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Real+Oklahoma+Students+Ace+Citizenship+Exam%3B+Strategic+Vision+Survey+Was+Likely+Fabricated&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F11%2Freal-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-52"><a href="#cite_ref-52">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html">"Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud"</a>. 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FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091111074843/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/independent-voters-and-empty.html">Archived</a> from the original on November 11, 2009.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Independent+Voters+and+Empty+Explanations&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2009%2F11%2Findependent-voters-and-empty.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-61"><a href="#cite_ref-61">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html">"538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100121140722/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html">Archived</a> from the original on January 21, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=538+Model+Posits+Brown+as+3%3A1+Favorite&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F01%2F538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-62"><a href="#cite_ref-62">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html">"UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100430143321/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html">Archived</a> from the original on April 30, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=UK+Seats+Projection%3A+Tories+299%2C+Labour+199%2C+LibDems+120&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F04%2Fuk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-63"><a href="#cite_ref-63">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/hung-parliament-from-gallows-perhaps.html">"A Hung Parliament? (From the Gallows, Perhaps?)"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100605174245/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/hung-parliament-from-gallows-perhaps.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 5, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=A+Hung+Parliament%3F+%28From+the+Gallows%2C+Perhaps%3F%29&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F01%2Fhung-parliament-from-gallows-perhaps.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-64"><a href="#cite_ref-64">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/instant-run-off-proposed-by-brown.html">"Instant Run-Off Proposed by Brown"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100526054322/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/instant-run-off-proposed-by-brown.html">Archived</a> from the original on May 26, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Instant+Run-Off+Proposed+by+Brown&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F02%2Finstant-run-off-proposed-by-brown.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-65"><a href="#cite_ref-65">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/getting-it-right-on-uk-numbers.html">"Getting It "Right" on the UK Numbers"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100611151208/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/getting-it-right-on-uk-numbers.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 11, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Getting+It+%22Right%22+on+the+UK+Numbers&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F04%2Fgetting-it-right-on-uk-numbers.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-66"><a href="#cite_ref-66">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-1.html">"Selection bias in UK polling (Part 1): Cell phones"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100623043803/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-1.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 23, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Selection+bias+in+UK+polling+%28Part+1%29%3A+Cell+phones&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F04%2Fselection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-1.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-67"><a href="#cite_ref-67">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-2.html">"Selection Bias in UK Polling (Part 2): Internet Polling"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100620032005/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/selection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-2.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 20, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Selection+Bias+in+UK+Polling+%28Part+2%29%3A+Internet+Polling&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F04%2Fselection-bias-in-uk-polling-part-2.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-68"><a href="#cite_ref-68">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/is-lib-dem-surge-for-real-part-4.html">"Is the Lib Dem Surge for Real (Part 4: The meltdown)"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100618211857/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/is-lib-dem-surge-for-real-part-4.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 18, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Is+the+Lib+Dem+Surge+for+Real+%28Part+4%3A+The+meltdown%29&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F05%2Fis-lib-dem-surge-for-real-part-4.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-71"><a href="#cite_ref-71">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilverSextonBermanDollar2010" class="citation web cs1">Silver, Nate; Sexton, Renard; Berman, Dan; Dollar, Thomas (May 6, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/liveblog-uk-election-returns.html">"Liveblog: UK Election Returns"</a>. 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Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Liveblog%3A+UK+Election+Returns&rft.date=2010-05-06&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft.au=Sexton%2C+Renard&rft.au=Berman%2C+Dan&rft.au=Dollar%2C+Thomas&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F05%2Fliveblog-uk-election-returns.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-73"><a href="#cite_ref-73">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/final-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html">"Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20111009211053/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/final-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html">Archived</a> from the original on October 9, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Final+UK+Projection%3A+Conservatives+312%2C+Labour+204%2C+LibDems+103&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F05%2Ffinal-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/05-74">^ <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2010/05_74-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2010/05_74-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2010" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (May 11, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/uk-forecasting-retrospective.html">"U.K. Forecasting Retrospective"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20131021085612/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/uk-forecasting-retrospective.html">Archived</a> from the original on October 21, 2013. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=U.K.+Forecasting+Retrospective&rft.date=2010-05-11&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F05%2Fuk-forecasting-retrospective.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-75"><a href="#cite_ref-75">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/con-lib-pact-brings-cameron-to-pms.html">"Con-Lib Pact Brings Cameron to PM's Chair"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100616024535/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/con-lib-pact-brings-cameron-to-pms.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 16, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Con-Lib+Pact+Brings+Cameron+to+PM%27s+Chair&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F05%2Fcon-lib-pact-brings-cameron-to-pms.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/06-76">^ <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2010/06_76-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2010/06_76-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2010" class="citation web cs1">Silver, Nate (June 3, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html">"FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100606173921/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html">Archived</a> from the original on June 6, 2010. Retrieved June 3, 2010.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight+to+Partner+with+New+York+Times&rft.date=2010-06-03&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fivethirtyeight.com%2F2010%2F06%2Ffivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2010/08/25-79"><a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2010/08/25_79-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2010" class="citation news cs1"><a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Silver, Nate</a> (August 25, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/">"New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141213005055/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/">Archived</a> from the original on December 13, 2014. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=New+Forecast+Shows+Democrats+Losing+6+to+7+Senate+Seats&rft.date=2010-08-25&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F08%2F25%2Fnew-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-84"><a href="#cite_ref-84">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2010" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (August 25, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150907235351/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/welcome-and-welcome-back/">"Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/welcome-and-welcome-back/">the original</a> on September 7, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Welcome+%28and+Welcome+Back%29+to+FiveThirtyEight&rft.date=2010-08-25&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F08%2F25%2Fwelcome-and-welcome-back%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-86"><a href="#cite_ref-86">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMicah_Cohen2010" class="citation web cs1">Micah Cohen (December 10, 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141011154100/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/">"38 Days Later"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/">the original</a> on October 11, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=38+Days+Later&rft.date=2010-12-10&rft.au=Micah+Cohen&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F12%2F10%2F38-days-later%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-87"><a href="#cite_ref-87">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAndrew_Gelman2011" class="citation web cs1">Andrew Gelman (January 3, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150321060012/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/">"All Politics Is Local? The Debate and the Graphs"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/">the original</a> on March 21, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=All+Politics+Is+Local%3F+The+Debate+and+the+Graphs&rft.date=2011-01-03&rft.au=Andrew+Gelman&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F01%2F03%2Fall-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-88"><a href="#cite_ref-88">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBrian_J._McCabe2011" class="citation web cs1">Brian J. McCabe (January 19, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150526232925/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/grading-new-york-restaurants-whats-in-an-a/">"Grading New York Restaurants: What's in an 'A'?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/grading-new-york-restaurants-whats-in-an-a/">the original</a> on May 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Grading+New+York+Restaurants%3A+What%27s+in+an+%27A%27%3F&rft.date=2011-01-19&rft.au=Brian+J.+McCabe&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F01%2F19%2Fgrading-new-york-restaurants-whats-in-an-a%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-91"><a href="#cite_ref-91">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (October 10, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150911003519/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/new-hampshires-contrarian-streak/#more-17579">"New Hampshire's Contrarian Streak"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/new-hampshires-contrarian-streak/#more-17579">the original</a> on September 11, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=New+Hampshire%27s+Contrarian+Streak&rft.date=2011-10-10&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F10%2F10%2Fnew-hampshires-contrarian-streak%2F%23more-17579&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-92"><a href="#cite_ref-92">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMicah_Cohen2011" class="citation web cs1">Micah Cohen (September 23, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150910022431/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/a-look-at-politifact-grades-of-candidates/">"A Look at PolitiFact Grades of Candidates"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/a-look-at-politifact-grades-of-candidates/">the original</a> on September 10, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=A+Look+at+PolitiFact+Grades+of+Candidates&rft.date=2011-09-23&rft.au=Micah+Cohen&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F09%2F23%2Fa-look-at-politifact-grades-of-candidates%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-93"><a href="#cite_ref-93">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJohn_Sides2011" class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/John_M._Sides" title="John M. Sides">John Sides</a> (September 12, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150906153005/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/social-status-of-members-of-congress-shifts-policy-toward-rich/">"Social Status and How the Elected Vote"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/social-status-of-members-of-congress-shifts-policy-toward-rich/">the original</a> on September 6, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Social+Status+and+How+the+Elected+Vote&rft.date=2011-09-12&rft.au=John+Sides&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F09%2F12%2Fsocial-status-of-members-of-congress-shifts-policy-toward-rich%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-94"><a href="#cite_ref-94">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (March 28, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/in-tournament-of-upsets-v-c-u-has-overcome-longest-odds/">"In Tournament of Upsets, V.C.U. Has Overcome Longest Odds"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110529194013/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/in-tournament-of-upsets-v-c-u-has-overcome-longest-odds/">Archived</a> from the original on May 29, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=In+Tournament+of+Upsets%2C+V.C.U.+Has+Overcome+Longest+Odds&rft.date=2011-03-28&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F03%2F28%2Fin-tournament-of-upsets-v-c-u-has-overcome-longest-odds%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-95"><a href="#cite_ref-95">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2003" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (March 18, 2003). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/?">"Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130318181352/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/">Archived</a> from the original on March 18, 2013. Retrieved March 18, 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Parity+in+N.C.A.A.+Means+No+Commanding+Favorite&rft.date=2003-03-18&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2013%2F03%2F18%2Fparity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite%2F%3F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-97"><a href="#cite_ref-97">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2012" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (March 13, 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/fivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket/">"FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120314194227/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/fivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket/">Archived</a> from the original on March 14, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight+Picks+the+N.C.A.A.+Bracket&rft.date=2012-03-13&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2012%2F03%2F13%2Ffivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-99"><a href="#cite_ref-99">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (February 22, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/deal-for-anthony-may-limit-knicks-upside/">"Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks' Upside"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110511005939/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/deal-for-anthony-may-limit-knicks-upside/">Archived</a> from the original on May 11, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Deal+for+Anthony+May+Limit+Knicks%27+Upside&rft.date=2011-02-22&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F02%2F22%2Fdeal-for-anthony-may-limit-knicks-upside%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-100"><a href="#cite_ref-100">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/calling-foul-on-n-b-a-s-claims-of-financial-distress/">"Calling Foul on N.B.A.'s Claims of Financial Distress"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. July 5, 2011. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110708082002/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/calling-foul-on-n-b-a-s-claims-of-financial-distress/">Archived</a> from the original on July 8, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Calling+Foul+on+N.B.A.%27s+Claims+of+Financial+Distress&rft.date=2011-07-05&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F07%2F05%2Fcalling-foul-on-n-b-a-s-claims-of-financial-distress%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-101"><a href="#cite_ref-101">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke">"Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. February 11, 2012. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120211213933/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/">Archived</a> from the original on February 11, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Jeremy+Lin+Is+No+Fluke&rft.date=2012-02-11&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2012%2F02%2F11%2Fjeremy-lin-is-no-fluke&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-102"><a href="#cite_ref-102">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (May 31, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/as-mets-image-slumps-so-does-attendance/">"As Mets' Image Slumps, So Does Attendance"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110604131347/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/as-mets-image-slumps-so-does-attendance/">Archived</a> from the original on June 4, 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=As+Mets%27+Image+Slumps%2C+So+Does+Attendance&rft.date=2011-05-31&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F05%2F31%2Fas-mets-image-slumps-so-does-attendance%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-103"><a href="#cite_ref-103">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1">Silver, Nate (September 27, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/september-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever/">"September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120711230840/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/september-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever/">Archived</a> from the original on July 11, 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=September+Collapse+of+Red+Sox+Could+Be+Worst+Ever&rft.date=2011-09-27&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F09%2F27%2Fseptember-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-105"><a href="#cite_ref-105">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (February 12, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20151210102155/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/the-economics-of-blogging-and-the-huffington-post/">"The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/the-economics-of-blogging-and-the-huffington-post/">the original</a> on December 10, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=The+Economics+of+Blogging+and+The+Huffington+Post&rft.date=2011-02-12&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F02%2F12%2Fthe-economics-of-blogging-and-the-huffington-post%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-106"><a href="#cite_ref-106">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (August 8, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150908111600/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/">"Why S.&P.'s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/why-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous/">the original</a> on September 8, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Why+S.%26P.%27s+Ratings+Are+Substandard+and+Porous&rft.date=2011-08-08&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F08%2F08%2Fwhy-s-p-s-ratings-are-substandard-and-porous%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-107"><a href="#cite_ref-107">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (September 6, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150906213856/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/in-jobs-data-surprises-mean-bad-news/">"In Jobs Data, 'Surprises' Mean Bad News"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/in-jobs-data-surprises-mean-bad-news/">the original</a> on September 6, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=In+Jobs+Data%2C+%27Surprises%27+Mean+Bad+News&rft.date=2011-09-06&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F09%2F06%2Fin-jobs-data-surprises-mean-bad-news%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-108"><a href="#cite_ref-108">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (August 26, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150906005224/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/new-york-hurricane-could-be-multibillion-dollar-catastrophe/">"A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/new-york-hurricane-could-be-multibillion-dollar-catastrophe/">the original</a> on September 6, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=A+New+York+Hurricane+Could+Be+a+Multibillion-Dollar+Catastrophe&rft.date=2011-08-26&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F08%2F26%2Fnew-york-hurricane-could-be-multibillion-dollar-catastrophe%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-109"><a href="#cite_ref-109">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (August 29, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150906081708/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/how-irene-lived-up-to-the-hype/">"How Irene Lived Up to the Hype"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/how-irene-lived-up-to-the-hype/">the original</a> on September 6, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=How+Irene+Lived+Up+to+the+Hype&rft.date=2011-08-29&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F08%2F29%2Fhow-irene-lived-up-to-the-hype%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07-110">^ <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07_110-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-FiveThirtyEight-2011/10/07_110-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSilver2011" class="citation news cs1"><a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Silver, Nate</a> (October 7, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/police-clashes-spur-coverage-of-wall-street-protests/">"Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150414054719/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/police-clashes-spur-coverage-of-wall-street-protests/">Archived</a> from the original on April 14, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Police+Clashes+Spur+Coverage+of+Wall+Street+Protests&rft.date=2011-10-07&rft.aulast=Silver&rft.aufirst=Nate&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F10%2F07%2Fpolice-clashes-spur-coverage-of-wall-street-protests%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-111"><a href="#cite_ref-111">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2011" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (October 17, 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150509062424/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/the-geography-of-occupying-wall-street-and-everywhere-else/">"The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/the-geography-of-occupying-wall-street-and-everywhere-else/">the original</a> on May 9, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=The+Geography+of+Occupying+Wall+Street+%28and+Everywhere+Else%29&rft.date=2011-10-17&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F10%2F17%2Fthe-geography-of-occupying-wall-street-and-everywhere-else%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-112"><a href="#cite_ref-112">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNate_Silver2012" class="citation web cs1">Nate Silver (June 22, 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150906010312/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/">"Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/">the original</a> on September 6, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Calculating+%27House+Effects%27+of+Polling+Firms&rft.date=2012-06-22&rft.au=Nate+Silver&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2012%2F06%2F22%2Fcalculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-113"><a href="#cite_ref-113">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com">"FiveThirtyEight blog"</a>. The New York Times. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150425170119/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/">Archived</a> from the original on April 25, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight+blog&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-fox-125">^ <a href="#cite_ref-fox_125-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-fox_125-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/">"What the Fox Knows"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. March 17, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140317174126/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/">Archived</a> from the original on March 17, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=What+the+Fox+Knows&rft.date=2014-03-17&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fwhat-the-fox-knows%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-126"><a href="#cite_ref-126">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/">"Masthead"</a>. FiverThirtyEight. February 14, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150419033448/http://fivethirtyeight.com/masthead/">Archived</a> from the original on April 19, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiverThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Masthead&rft.date=2014-02-14&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fmasthead%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-129"><a href="#cite_ref-129">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/">"2014 Senate Forecast"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. September 3, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150424142204/http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/">Archived</a> from the original on April 24, 2015. Retrieved April 26, 2015.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=2014+Senate+Forecast&rft.date=2014-09-03&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Finteractives%2Fsenate-forecast%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-130"><a href="#cite_ref-130">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeights-senate-model-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge/">"FiveThirtyEight's Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. September 3, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140910112404/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeights-senate-model-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge/">Archived</a> from the original on September 10, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight%27s+Senate+Model+Is+Back+And+It+Gives+Republicans+The+Edge&rft.date=2014-09-03&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Ffivethirtyeights-senate-model-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-131"><a href="#cite_ref-131">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/">"Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. September 15, 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140917064210/http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/">Archived</a> from the original on September 17, 2014.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=Senate+Update%3A+Democrats+Draw+Almost+Even.+Is+It+The+Money%3F&rft.date=2014-09-15&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Fdatalab%2Fsenate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-foxname-155">^ <a href="#cite_ref-foxname_155-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-foxname_155-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/">"How We Designed The Look Of Our 2020 Forecast"</a>. FiveThirtyEight. August 13, 2020. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201012132844/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/">Archived</a> from the original on October 12, 2020. Retrieved October 9, 2020.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=FiveThirtyEight&rft.atitle=How+We+Designed+The+Look+Of+Our+2020+Forecast&rft.date=2020-08-13&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Ffeatures%2Fhow-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=28" title="Edit section: Further reading">edit</a>]</div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEtim2009" class="citation news cs1">Etim, Bassey (March 22, 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/22/blogging-in-a-post-campaign-world/">"Blogging in a Post-Campaign World"</a>. The Caucus. <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a>. Retrieved January 3, 2018.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Blogging+in+a+Post-Campaign+World&rft.date=2009-03-22&rft.aulast=Etim&rft.aufirst=Bassey&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fthecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com%2F2009%2F03%2F22%2Fblogging-in-a-post-campaign-world%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJohnson2008" class="citation news cs1">Johnson, Bobbie (November 3, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/nov/03/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight">"America's Hottest Pollster Gives His Final Verdict as US Elections Reach Climax"</a>. <a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a>. Retrieved January 3, 2018.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Guardian&rft.atitle=America%27s+Hottest+Pollster+Gives+His+Final+Verdict+as+US+Elections+Reach+Climax&rft.date=2008-11-03&rft.aulast=Johnson&rft.aufirst=Bobbie&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Ftechnology%2F2008%2Fnov%2F03%2Fnate-silver-fivethirtyeight&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMyers2008" class="citation web cs1">Myers, Steve (October 30, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.poynter.org/news/fivethirtyeight-combines-polls-reporting-and-baseball">"FiveThirtyEight Combines Polls, Reporting and Baseball"</a>. Poynter. <a href="/wiki/Poynter_Institute" title="Poynter Institute">Poynter Institute</a>. Retrieved January 3, 2018.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Poynter&rft.atitle=FiveThirtyEight+Combines+Polls%2C+Reporting+and+Baseball&rft.date=2008-10-30&rft.aulast=Myers&rft.aufirst=Steve&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.poynter.org%2Fnews%2Ffivethirtyeight-combines-polls-reporting-and-baseball&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRothschild2009" class="citation journal cs1">Rothschild, David (2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fpoq%2Fnfp082">"Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Public_Opinion_Quarterly" title="Public Opinion Quarterly">Public Opinion Quarterly</a>. 73 (5): 895–916. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fpoq%2Fnfp082">10.1093/poq/nfp082</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Public+Opinion+Quarterly&rft.atitle=Forecasting+Elections%3A+Comparing+Prediction+Markets%2C+Polls%2C+and+Their+Biases&rft.volume=73&rft.issue=5&rft.pages=895-916&rft.date=2009&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1093%2Fpoq%2Fnfp082&rft.aulast=Rothschild&rft.aufirst=David&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1093%252Fpoq%252Fnfp082&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit&section=29" title="Edit section: External links">edit</a>]</div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538">Official website</a> <a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q600669#P856" title="Edit this at Wikidata"><img alt="Edit this at Wikidata" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/10px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png" decoding="async" width="10" height="10" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/15px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/20px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="20" data-file-height="20" /></a></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCarroll2008" class="citation web cs1">Carroll, Conn (August 21, 2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/13822">"Nate Silver interview"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Bloggingheads.tv" title="Bloggingheads.tv">Bloggingheads.tv</a>. Nonzero.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Bloggingheads.tv&rft.atitle=Nate+Silver+interview&rft.date=2008-08-21&rft.aulast=Carroll&rft.aufirst=Conn&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fbloggingheads.tv%2Fdiavlogs%2F13822&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFiveThirtyEight" class="Z3988"></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol 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Know">GMA3: What You Need To Know</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demarco_Morgan" class="mw-redirect" title="Demarco Morgan">Demarco Morgan</a> (co-anchor)</li> <li>Eva Pilgrim (co-anchor)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jennifer_Ashton" title="Jennifer Ashton">Dr. Jennifer Ashton</a> (contributing anchor)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Good_Morning_America_Weekend" title="Good Morning America Weekend">GMA Weekend</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Whit_Johnson" title="Whit Johnson">Whit Johnson</a> (co-anchor)</li> <li>Janai Norman (co-anchor)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gio_Benitez" title="Gio Benitez">Gio Benitez</a> (co-anchor)</li> <li>Somara Theodore (meteorologist)</li></ul> 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0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Washington, D.C.</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Jim_Avila" title="Jim Avila">Jim Avila</a> (Senior National)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Devin_Dwyer" title="Devin Dwyer">Devin Dwyer</a> (White House)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jonathan_Karl" title="Jonathan Karl">Jonathan Karl</a> (Chief <a href="/wiki/White_House" title="White House">White House</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Terry_Moran" title="Terry Moran">Terry Moran</a> (Senior National)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Martha_Raddatz" title="Martha Raddatz">Martha Raddatz</a> (Chief Global Affairs)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">New York City</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Dan_Abrams" title="Dan Abrams">Dan Abrams</a> (Chief Legal Analyst)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jennifer_Ashton" title="Jennifer Ashton">Dr. Jennifer Ashton</a> (Chief Women's Health Correspondent and Senior Medical Contributor)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rebecca_Jarvis" title="Rebecca Jarvis">Rebecca Jarvis</a> (Chief Business and Economics)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Aaron_Katersky" title="Aaron Katersky">Aaron Katersky</a> (Senior Investigative)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Byron_Pitts" title="Byron Pitts">Byron Pitts</a> (Chief National)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/George_Stephanopoulos" title="George Stephanopoulos">George Stephanopoulos</a> (Chief Political)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bob_Woodruff" title="Bob Woodruff">Bob Woodruff</a> (Military Affairs)</li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Field reporters</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abbie_Boudreau" title="Abbie Boudreau">Abbie Boudreau</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chris_Connelly_(journalist)" title="Chris Connelly (journalist)">Chris Connelly</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Donvan" title="John Donvan">John Donvan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lama_Hasan" title="Lama Hasan">Lama Hasan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/David_Kerley" title="David Kerley">David Kerley</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rob_Marciano" title="Rob Marciano">Rob Marciano</a> (senior meteorologist)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ryan_Owens" title="Ryan Owens">Ryan Owens</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deborah_Roberts" title="Deborah Roberts">Deborah Roberts</a> (senior national affairs correspondent)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rachel_Scott_(journalist)" title="Rachel Scott (journalist)">Rachel Scott</a> (senior congressional correspondent)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/ABC_News_Radio" title="ABC News Radio">ABC News Radio</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/David_Blaustein" title="David Blaustein">David Blaustein</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Vic_Ratner" title="Vic Ratner">Vic Ratner</a> (Capitol Hill)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Steven_Portnoy" title="Steven Portnoy">Steven Portnoy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alex_Stone" title="Alex Stone">Alex Stone</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Doug_Limerick" title="Doug Limerick">Doug Limerick</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a class="mw-selflink selflink">FiveThirtyEight</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Nate_Silver" title="Nate Silver">Nate Silver</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>    </div><noscript><img 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