Щодо України: остерігайтеся пасток тимчасових миротворчих угод

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content="Щодо України: остерігайтеся пасток тимчасових миротворчих угод" /> <meta property="og:description" content="Якщо шкідники не будуть повністю маргіналізовані та не будуть створені системи управління, які забезпечують верховенство права, прав людини та підзвітну демократію, тимчасові мирні угоди є не більш ніж перемогою для агресора." /> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.justsecurity.org/83124/on-ukraine-beware-the-pitfalls-of-interim-peacemaking-deals-ua/" /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Just Security" /> <meta property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/JSBlog/" /> <meta property="article:published_time" content="2022-07-19T03:55:36+00:00" /> <meta property="article:modified_time" content="2022-10-27T13:59:23+00:00" /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Ukraine-Russia-war-protest-small.jpg" /> <meta property="og:image:width" content="1024" /> <meta property="og:image:height" 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She has worked in the Western Balkans since the late 1990s, conducting research and working for organizations including DPC, the European Center for Minority Issues, the Public International Law and Policy Group, the NATO Stabilization Force, and several NGOs. From September 2017 to March 2019 she was coordinator at the OSCE Mission to Serbia on a project to prevent and counter violent extremism, having previously worked at the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina. She has consulted for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the U.N. Development Program, the Regional Cooperation Council, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), IMPAQ International, and other organizations. Perry has a PhD from George Mason University’s Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, has published numerous articles and book chapters, has spoken at conferences and policy events in the United States and throughout Europe, and has testified at the U.S. Congress. 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class="authors">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/perryvalery/" title="Profile and articles by Valery Perry" class="author url fn" rel="author">Valery Perry</a></p><p class="date">July 18, 2022</p><div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-icon sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-bluesky"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-bluesky-83124" class="share-bluesky sd-button share-icon no-text" href="https://www.justsecurity.org/83124/on-ukraine-beware-the-pitfalls-of-interim-peacemaking-deals-ua/?share=bluesky" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Bluesky" ><span></span><span class="sharing-screen-reader-text">Click to share on Bluesky (Opens in new window)</span></a></li><li class="share-twitter"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-twitter-83124" class="share-twitter sd-button share-icon no-text" 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class="sharing-screen-reader-text">Click to print (Opens in new window)</span></a></li><li class="share-end"></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="post-tags"><h3>Filed under:</h3><p><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/bosnia-herzegovina/" rel="tag">Bosnia-Herzegovina</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/dayton-peace-agreement/" rel="tag">Dayton Peace Agreement</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/diplomacy/" rel="tag">Diplomacy</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/kosovo/" rel="tag">Kosovo</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/military/" rel="tag">Military</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/nato/" rel="tag">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peace-agreements/" rel="tag">peace agreements</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peace-talks/" rel="tag">Peace Talks</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peacekeeping/" rel="tag">Peacekeeping</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/russia/" rel="tag">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/russia-ukraine-war/" rel="tag">Russia-Ukraine War</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/serbia/" rel="tag">Serbia</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/translation-available/" rel="tag">Translation Available</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/ukraine/" rel="tag">Ukraine</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/ukrainian-translation/" rel="tag">Ukrainian Translation</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/western-balkans/" rel="tag">Western Balkans</a></p></div></div><main id="primary" tabindex="-1" class="content-body clearfix" role="main"><article class="client-ui clearfix"><div class="print-authors"><p class="authors">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/perryvalery/" title="Profile and articles by Valery Perry" class="author url fn" rel="author">Valery Perry</a></p><p class="date">July 18, 2022</p></div><p><em>This article is also available in English <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/82436/on-ukraine-beware-the-pitfalls-of-interim-peacemaking-deals/">here</a>. Переклад статті здійснений завдяки Лідія Волкова.</em></p> <p>Для аналітиків, які пишуть про результат конфлікту для України, стало звичним зазначати, що «хоч Україна сама вирішує свою долю», Сполучені Штати та їхні союзники можуть «каталізувати» переговори, і, мабуть, впливати на них. Відчуття того, що українці самі мають вирішувати своє майбутнє, викликає захоплення. Але роль Заходу настільки критична, що не можна недооцінювати ступінь, до якого подальша підтримка оборони України може залежати від інтересів Заходу. Зараз, коли війна перейшла в нову фазу виснаження, інфляція, глобальна нестача продовольства та зростання цін на енергоносії ризикують розірвати єдність Заходу, оскільки деякі країни втрачають терпіння щодо економічної ціни захисту своїх цінностей.</p> <p>Згадки про «відхід» і угоди з’явилися незабаром після початку війни, часто явно пов’язані зі страхом ескалації; як і <a href="https://twitter.com/dpc_global/status/1508723246019055619?s=21&t=IPFBsDU8DmH2k3bCLauD8Q">попередження про ризики умиротворення</a>. Відомо, що Генрі Кіссінджер продемонстрував свою незмінну відданість аморальній <em>реальній політиці</em>, припускаючи, що від України слід просто очікувати <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/24/henry-kissinger-ukraine-russia-territory-davos/">поступки територією</a>. У середині березня – менш ніж через місяць після початку російської агресії проти України – було запропоновано вправу з передбачення <a href="https://opiniojuris.org/2022/03/16/possible-draft-of-a-framework-agreement-on-the-restoration-of-peaceful-relations-between-ukraine-and-the-russian-federation/">проєкту</a> рамок миру, що передбачало поєднання виведення військових сил під міжнародним наглядом, створення «автономних утворень» і структурованого обмеження можливості України приєднатися до таких організацій, як НАТО чи Європейський Союз.</p> <p>Зовсім нещодавно Майкл ОʼГенлон <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/01/ukraine-endgame-scenarios-war-russia/">запропонував </a>низку варіантів компромісних угод, демонструючи зрозумілу зацікавленість у припиненні кровопролиття за допомогою низки можливих тимчасових домовленостей, які, теоретично, дозволили б виграти час для досягнення результату мирних переговорів. Він зазначає, що уроки можна винести з таких місць, як Боснія та Герцеговина, Косово, Південний Судан чи Східний Тимор. Однак досвід перших двох із них на Західних Балканах чітко показує, що такі тимчасові домовленості можуть легко стати рецептом тривалих і затяжних політичних конфліктів, які не зможуть задовольнити апетити політичних підприємців чи розпалювачів війни, які замість цього вчаться годувати від них як міжнародно визнаних державних діячів.</p> <p>Хоча пропозиції, подібні до наведених вище, безсумнівно, мають благі наміри, не слід піддаватися сумнівам, ніби ці сценарії будуть втратою для Заходу, призведуть до перемоги Москви в Україні та сприятимуть ширшій геостратегічній нестабільності, що для Путіна є головним. Розбір цього є повчальним для розгляду майбутніх варіантів для України. Хоча порівняння в моєму аналізі стосується Боснії, вплив політики, яка підтримує «постійний тимчасовий режим», також помітний у Косово, і вплив обох випадків продовжує бути дестабілізуючим фактором і відчувається в усьому регіоні.</p> <h4>Спокуса «майбутнього референдуму»</h4> <p>По-перше, стосовно статусу «спірних територій» ОʼГенлон припускає можливість «майбутнього референдуму», щоб визначити, чому нададуть перевагу жителі цих територій: залишитися в Україні, увійти до складу Росії чи стати незалежними. Голосування після <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/13/us-russia-filtrationcamps-deportation-ukrainians-00045581">етнічних чи політичних чисток</a> є, мабуть, найгіршим видом фальсифікації та дає можливість злочинним діячам претендувати на політичну легітимність насильницького вигнання населення. Навіть у Боснії, яка мала суттєве міжнародне спостереження за виборами та історично амбітні зусилля, щоб забезпечити післявоєнне повернення населення, поєднання вигнань під час війни та узгодженої і залякувальної повоєнної політики виключення означало, що сторона, яка <em>найбільше </em>віддана статусу-кво після агресії, (у Боснії — серби; в Україні — росіяни) переможе. У Боснії ми бачимо це найяскравіше у Сребрениці, де нещодавно відзначили <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/82248/commemorating-the-srebrenica-genocide-a-warning-for-humankind/">річницю геноциду</a>, який назавжди змінив структуру населення.</p> <p>ОʼГенлон також згадує про можливість «автономних зон», посилаючись на Брчко, стратегічно важливе місто на північному сході Боснії. Питання про те, хто «отримав» Брчко, ледь не зірвало мирні переговори в Дейтоні в 1995 році, тож остаточний статус цієї частини території залишили на розсуд міжнародного арбітражу. Зрештою, компромісна угода зробила цю територію районом, утримуваним двома «суб’єктами» країни (більшістю боснійців (боснійські мусульмани) і хорватською Федерацією та більшістю сербів Республіки Сербської), «під суверенітетом Боснії та Герцеговини». Але жоден із суб’єктів не здійснював би свої повноваження, оскільки всі управлінські повноваження були делеговані суб’єктам уряду округу, а Брчко підпорядковувався б загальним інститутам Боснії та Герцеговини. За округом також мав наглядати американський наглядач, який мав широкі можливості просувати процеси реформ і маргіналізувати шкідників.</p> <p>Спочатку це спрацювало і призвело до позитивних місцевих реформ, які були помітними в місці, яке постраждало від особливо жорстокої війни. Однак без суттєвого усунення ширших пост-дейтонських політичних девіантів <a href="http://eurothink.mk/2021/04/02/5133/">експеримент не зміг процвітати</a> як передбачалося, не кажучи вже про те, щоб стати локальною лабораторією демократії. Натомість партійна політика решти країни перетворила округ на локалізовану <a href="https://medium.com/enrique-dans/why-partitocracy-is-a-danger-to-democracy-b287c1a7e2fe">партократію</a>, де партійна та етнічна ідентифікація визначає все: від того, хто отримує роботу на державній службі, до студентського врядування. Це було б знайоме жителям <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/71998/lebanons-peace-cartel-is-irredeemable-how-donors-choose-to-help-can-tip-the-scales/">Лівану</a>.</p> <p>ОʼГенлон також припускає, що міжнародна місія зі спостереження за миром в Україні могла б стежити за припиненням вогню вздовж нинішньої лінії фронту, щоб служити стримуванням для подальших атак. У Боснії Додаток 1А до Дейтонської мирної угоди дозволив силам НАТО чисельністю понад 50 000 осіб із потужним миротворчим мандатом забезпечити безпечне та надійне середовище для впровадження миру. Так вдалося запобігти післявоєнним територіальним вторгненням, адже ця сила не мала конкуренції в Боснії чи на більшому регіональному театрі. Натомість у випадку з Україною жодна така зібрана сила ніколи не могла б мати рівних позицій з агресором – російськими військовими. ОʼГенлон зазначає, що головною силою військових спостерігачів з багатьох різних країн буде ризик для їхнього життя (і передбачуваний розголос, якщо когось із них уб’ють або візьмуть у полон).</p> <p>Однак у Боснії успіх сил у виконанні своїх військових цілей був необхідним, але недостатнім для забезпечення повного досягнення миру. Після кількох перших років прогресу впровадження мирної угоди серед цивільних сповільнилося, призупинилося та повернулося. Дипломати, які очікували, що реформи та просування до євроатлантичної інтеграції будуть неминучими, страждали від провалу уяви, коли бачили альтернативи підзвітній ліберальній демократії. Натомість вони були введені в оману завдяки зусиллям шкідників, які протягом багатьох поколінь функціонально розділяли країну за допомогою невійськових засобів – найефективнішими в цьому були серби (але не лише вони), які старанно налагоджували зв’язки, структури та політику всередині свого територіального суб’єкта щодо всього – від освіти до розвитку – з сусідньою Сербією, водночас мінімізуючи, ігноруючи або відверто протидіючи зобов’язанням перед державою, до якої належить суб’єкт. Одним із найпомітніших і гучних прикладів такого невиконання їхніх зобов’язань став Додаток 7 мирової угоди, який надавав право на повернення. До того ж <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/bosnia-and-herzegovina">корупція стала перешкодою та звичним явищем</a>.</p> <p>Ці постійні та узгоджені зусилля з підриву держави зсередини представляють підхід троянського коня до використання тимчасових домовленостей для забезпечення постійних внутрішніх політичних перешкод, що фактично підтримує конфлікт. Це тактика, яку Путін заохочує не лише в Боснії: ще одним прикладом є невирішений конфлікт між Сербією та Косово. Переговори між Белградом і Приштиною давно зайшли в глухий кут, у тому числі стосовно пропозиції щодо <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2021/07/05/kosovo-feels-us-eu-heat-on-association-of-serb-majority-municipalities/">Асоціації сербських муніципалітетів у Косово,</a> яку багато хто в Косово з побоюванням сприймає як можливість для ще однієї псевдодержави, яка може негативно вплинути на управління в Косово, водночас формалізуючи зв’язки з Сербією. Путін добре усвідомлює, як він міг би застосувати подібний підхід в Україні, щоб одночасно зміцнити своє становище на сході та зашкодити Києву шляхом псевдофедеральних «компромісів».</p> <h4>Очікування жаданої смерті шкідника</h4> <p>О’Генлон особливо зазначає, що цей проміжний підхід може принести користь, коли Путін піде. Однак, знову дивлячись на Балкани, ми бачимо, що таке видавання бажаного за дійсне може бути недоречним. Сподівання на те, що новий лідер створить нові умови для гри, ігнорує структурну спадщину автократів та їхні системи підтримки. Коли сербський лідер Слободан Мілошевич помер (будучи ув’язненим за воєнні злочини, але не доживши до остаточного вироку), була надія, що Сербія і, своєю чергою, регіон, включаючи Боснію та її контрольовану сербами територію – може увійти в нову еру. На короткий час це вдалося. Проте внутрішні та міжнародні чинники знову розпалили рушії конфлікту. Усередині країни політична економія (яка характеризується повсюдною корупцією) залишилася нереформованою. На міжнародному рівні невирішене питання Косово та роль шкідника, яку відіграє Москва, заохочуючи Сербію залишатися на сході, а не рішуче крокувати до Брюсселя, гарантує, що стан постійного конфлікту та нарікань продовжує домінувати та перешкоджати країні – і регіону – від руху вперед.</p> <p>Знову ж таки, таке компромісне мислення ґрунтується на благородному інтересі припинення смертоносного конфлікту. Конфлікт-менеджери вказують на <a href="https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/issue-segmentation">два різні підходи до переговорів, </a>спрямованих на вирішення конфлікту. Поступовий підхід «нарізання ковбаси» передбачає, як пропонує ОʼГенлон, серію невеликих, досить прийнятних наразі кроків, якими, немов по сходинках, можна побудувати наступний набір компромісів, усе в інтересах вирішення або навіть трансформації конфлікту. З іншого боку, підхід «валун на дорозі», який зосереджується на найбільшій точці розбіжностей у конфлікті, вважає, що якщо можна усунути її, то всі менші конфлікти можна буде вирішити легше (і назавжди).</p> <p>Після багатьох років ідеалістичного мислення (зокрема мого власного) щодо трансформаційної сили поступового підходу, розумно поставити під сумнів стійкість валунів. У Боснії валун — це післявоєнна конституційна структура країни, яка була поступкою міфу, поширеному войовничими націоналістами, про те, що Боснія не мала історичної легітимності як суверенний простір, який століттями населяло різноманітне населення, натомість закріплюючи та легітимізуючи територіальні здобутки під час війни одночасно закладаючи основу для понівеченої та етнічно розділеної держави. Численні спостерігачі (включаючи тих, хто брав участь у Дейтонських переговорах) відзначили, що вони ніколи не очікували, що ця конституційна ситуація триватиме так довго; це вважалося проміжним кроком.</p> <p>В Україні валуном є віра Путіна в те, що країна не повинна існувати як суверенна держава, яка здатна приймати власні рішення, але що вона зобов’язана підпорядковуватися примхам свого більшого російського сусіда. І фактично результат у вигляді невдалої держави, якому міг би сприяти поступовий підхід, досяг би того, чого він хотів: Франкенштейна з поганої миротворчої практики, яка б бачила Москву безпосередньо залученою на сході, яка водночас могла б впливати на Київ за допомогою різноманітних схем, спрямованих на демократичний (на вигляд) (кон)федералізм, які насправді мали на меті обмежити суверенітет Києва.</p> <p>Це був би останній приклад нової форми «замороженого конфлікту» в районах, які, на думку Москви, існують «на периферії». Початкові заморожені конфлікти виникли після розпаду Радянського Союзу в таких місцях, як Нагірний Карабах, Південна Осетія та Абхазія. Проте тепер епітет «заморожений» вводить в оману, припускаючи щось, що може бути природним чином розморожено. Натомість на Балканах «заморожений» статус плавно перетворився на навмисно тривалий політичний конфлікт, який можуть легко використати внутрішні та зовнішні погані актори, які прагнуть розпалювати достатньо нестабільності, щоб запобігти реформам і підтримувати геополітичну неоднозначність, яку бажає Москва.</p> <p>Комусь хочеться думати, що Україна є іншою, або що народ Боснії якимось чином винен у прикладах невдалого впровадження миру, згаданих вище. Це було б неправильним тлумаченням ситуації. У Боснії після війни була напрочуд низька кількість інцидентів політично вмотивованого насильства; це свідчить про те, що, як і під час війни, насильство або загрози насильства, які трапляються, ситуативно каталізуються зверху вниз. Структура мирної угоди та її різноманітні проміжні елементи закладали зачатки для навмисної поляризації та дисфункції, що після чверті століття призвело до того, що покоління громадян, яке виросло, ніколи не жило у функціональній країні. Тривала мовчазна згода на політику шкідників закріпила як розбіжності, так і дисфункцію, а соціальні розбіжності стали самоздійснюваним пророцтвом.</p> <h4>Прецедент, коли військова сила ядерних держав може змінювати кордони</h4> <p>В Україні Росії «вдасться» утримати територію, яку вона захопила, лише вигнавши українців і антимосковських росіян, реальність, яка підтримує голоси реальної політики, як-от Генрі Кіссінджера, який стверджує, що Путін і компанія повинні просто мати можливість зберегти те, що вони забрали. Звичайно, це також створило б прецедент, коли військова сила ядерних держав може змінювати кордони – прецедент, який багато хто вважає поганим, особливо люди, які живуть на Тайвані, наприклад. Проте прагнення уникнути цієї мовчазної згоди не слід використовувати як виправдання для більш м’якої згоди, яку описують ОʼГенлон та інші. Такий прецедент був би настільки ж дестабілізуючим.</p> <p>Тимчасові угоди, на жаль, надають занадто багато можливостей для шкідників, які ніколи не були зацікавлені в мирі, щоб просто переслідувати свої розкольницькі цілі іншими засобами — часто за моральної та фінансової підтримки Заходу. Лідери Сполучених Штатів і Європи повинні знайти спосіб донести до свого населення, що не існує легких, короткострокових рішень; це повідомлення, яке саме по собі важко проковтнути в той час, коли може здатися, що поняття «жертви заради ідеалів» може здаватися смішним. У Сполучених Штатах демократи та республіканці нехарактерно зближуються щодо України. Проте ліві та праві ізоляціоністи ставатимуть все голоснішими. У Європі суперечливі голоси так само кинуть виклик зовнішньополітичній єдності, яка спостерігалася досі.</p> <p>Один зі способів, як війну в Україні можна представити виборцям у демократичних державах у більш доступний спосіб – це чіткіше пояснення зв’язків між автократією, клептократією, корупцією та занепадом демократії. Почуття несправедливості та вкраденої гідності зіграло певну роль у виборах авторитарних популістів на Заході, зокрема Дональда Трампа та Бориса Джонсона, оскільки ображені виборці, які відчували, що програли в економічному вихорі останніх десятиліть, голосували за щось інше, ніж статус кво. І навіть виборці, які не стежать за війною в Україні, тепер принаймні знайомі з терміном «російський олігарх» – <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/585789/on-corruption-in-america-by-sarah-chayes">найбільш розчаровані </a>дивуються, чи їхні власні привілейовані фінансові та політичні еліти відрізняються. У статті «<a href="https://www.ned.org/offshore-cold-war-democratic-alliance-transnational-kleptocracy-bullough/">Офшорна холодна війна: формування демократичного альянсу для боротьби з транснаціональною клептократією</a>», опублікованій незадовго до вторгнення в Україну, Олівер Буллоу писав про токсичні глобальні наслідки того, що західні країни сприяють вилученню та відмиванню прибутків клептократів. Він писав: «Якщо американські політики приймуть стратегічну опозицію клептократії з таким же завзяттям, яке характеризувало їхній антикомунізм, вони можуть зіткнутися з невеликими насмішками з боку самовдоволених європейців. Але вони також оживлять концепцію Заходу та покажуть, що за його цінності варто боротися, і європейці приєднаються до них у їхній боротьбі».</p> <p>Песимісти, швидше за все, звернуть увагу на старе прислів’я «індички не голосують на День подяки», сумніваючись у здатності взяти на себе антидемократичні глобальні фінансові практики. Однак далекоглядні політики повинні переглянути свою думку та побачити, що стратегічне поєднання внутрішньої та зовнішньої політики через економічні аргументи, які ґрунтуються на загальноприйнятому розумінні того, що фінансові зміни минулого покоління були несправедливими, нечесними та поганими для місцевої демократії, знайдуть свій відгук серед виборців. Це створює можливість підкреслити взаємопов’язану природу глобальної демократичної солідарності та продемонструвати, що демократична спільнота країн завжди сильніша, коли сильніші окремі демократії, і слабша, коли якість демократичного врядування руйнується.</p> <p>Це буде нелегко; політикам набагато легше виступати проти ціни на газ. Але агресія проти України й надалі матиме негативний вплив на глобальне політичне та економічне середовище, незалежно від того, втомилося від цього населення Заходу чи ні. Умиротворення, замасковане під послідовність, не спрацює і не зробить світ безпечнішим. Якщо шкідники не будуть повністю маргіналізовані та не будуть створені системи управління, які забезпечують верховенство права, прав людини та підзвітну демократію, тимчасові мирні угоди є не більш ніж перемогою для агресора.</p> <h6><em>ЗОБРАЖЕННЯ: Проукраїнські активісти влаштували «демонстрацію смерті» під час акції протесту під гаслом «Припиніть обіцяти, почніть діяти!», закликаючи до негайного ембарго на імпорт нафти, газу та вугілля з Росії перед Бундестагом (нижня палата парламенту) у Берліні 6 квітня 2022 року, де відбулися дебати щодо цивільних, знайдених мертвими в українському місті Буча. (Фото: ДЖОН МАКДУГАЛЛ/AFP через Getty Images)</em></h6> <div class="icon-end-post"></div><div class="mobile-post-tags"><div class="post-tags"><h3>Filed under:</h3><p><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/bosnia-herzegovina/" rel="tag">Bosnia-Herzegovina</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/dayton-peace-agreement/" rel="tag">Dayton Peace Agreement</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/diplomacy/" rel="tag">Diplomacy</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/kosovo/" rel="tag">Kosovo</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/military/" rel="tag">Military</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/nato/" rel="tag">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peace-agreements/" rel="tag">peace agreements</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peace-talks/" rel="tag">Peace Talks</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/peacekeeping/" rel="tag">Peacekeeping</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/russia/" rel="tag">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/russia-ukraine-war/" rel="tag">Russia-Ukraine War</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/serbia/" rel="tag">Serbia</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/translation-available/" rel="tag">Translation Available</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/ukraine/" rel="tag">Ukraine</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/ukrainian-translation/" rel="tag">Ukrainian Translation</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/western-balkans/" rel="tag">Western Balkans</a></p></div></div></article></main><div id="secondary-right" class="secondary" role="complementary"><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/early-edition-signup/" class="button has-icon icon-pm">Signups for A.M. & P.M. 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Countries Must Do More Now.</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/huckerbyjayne/" title="Profile and articles by Jayne Huckerby" class="author url fn" rel="author">Jayne Huckerby</a></p> <p class="date">Jan 3rd, 2025</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105991/just-security-2024-book-recommendations/">The Just Security 2024 Year-End Book Recommendations</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/just-security-admin/" title="Profile and articles by Just Security" class="author url fn" rel="author">Just Security</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 24th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105981/ukraine-russia-human-safari-tactic/">Russia’s “Human Safari” Terror Tactic in Key Southeastern Ukraine Region of Kherson</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/sapuppomercedes/" title="Profile and articles by Mercedes Sapuppo" class="author url fn" rel="author">Mercedes Sapuppo</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 23rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105944/us-iran-diplomacy-nuclear/">U.S. Options for Iran Diplomacy in 2025</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/davenportkelsey/" title="Profile and articles by Kelsey Davenport" class="author url fn" rel="author">Kelsey Davenport</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 23rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105917/interim-report-icj-climate-opinion/">An Interim Report on the ICJ’s Climate Advisory Opinion</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/hericorina/" title="Profile and articles by Corina Heri" class="author url fn" rel="author">Corina Heri</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 21st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105909/challenging-china-human-rights/">New Challenges to Xi Jinping’s Alternative Facts on Taiwan: Lessons for the Human Rights Space, Too</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/richardsonsophie/" title="Profile and articles by Sophie Richardson" class="author url fn" rel="author">Sophie Richardson</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 20th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105752/ai-presidency/">The AI Presidency: What “America First” Means for Global AI Governance</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/rosenbrianna/" title="Profile and articles by Brianna Rosen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Brianna Rosen</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 16th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105735/trump-administration-sanctions-africa/">The First Trump Administration Used Sanctions Effectively in Africa. Here’s How That Can Resume in the Second Term.</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/bradbrooksrubin/" title="Profile and articles by Brad Brooks-Rubin" class="author url fn" rel="author">Brad Brooks-Rubin</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 13th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105708/icc-standard-proof-head-state/">Does the Int’l Criminal Court Impose Too Low a Standard of Proof to Arrest a Head of State?</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/buchwaldtodd/" title="Profile and articles by Todd Buchwald" class="author url fn" rel="author">Todd Buchwald</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/trumbullcharlie/" title="Profile and articles by Charlie Trumbull" class="author url fn" rel="author">Charlie Trumbull</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 12th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105638/biden-bosnia-security-troops/">Biden’s Unfinished Business: A Bridge to Shore Up a European Flank – in the Balkans</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/bassuenerkurt/" title="Profile and articles by Kurt Bassuener" class="author url fn" rel="author">Kurt Bassuener</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 12th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105640/georgia-protests-us-sanctions/">Georgia Risks Falling to a Violent One-Party Regime. The Biden Administration Must Act Now to Stop Its Slide.</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kramerdavidj/" title="Profile and articles by David J. Kramer" class="author url fn" rel="author">David J. Kramer</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kellyian/" title="Profile and articles by Ambassador (ret) Ian Kelly" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ambassador (ret) Ian Kelly</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 11th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105627/syria-freedom-governance-local-approach-constitutionalism/">Syrians’ Pursuit of Freedom and Self-Governance: Prioritizing a Locally-Driven and Incremental Approach to Constitutionalism</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/alrwishdideyaa/" title="Profile and articles by Deyaa Alrwishdi" class="author url fn" rel="author">Deyaa Alrwishdi</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/hamiltonrebecca/" title="Profile and articles by Rebecca Hamilton" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rebecca Hamilton</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 11th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105593/foreign-agent-laws-impact/">The Spreading Impact of Restrictive ‘Foreign Agent’ Laws and How to Stop Them</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/cameronjasmine/" title="Profile and articles by Jasmine D. Cameron" class="author url fn" rel="author">Jasmine D. Cameron</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/nicolafernandag/" title="Profile and articles by Fernanda G. Nicola" class="author url fn" rel="author">Fernanda G. Nicola</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 10th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105064/mapping-state-reactions-icc/">Mapping State Reactions to the ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/ingberrebecca/" title="Profile and articles by Rebecca Ingber" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rebecca Ingber</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 10th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105552/public-framing-mass-deportation/">The Public Framing of Mass Deportation</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/coxadam/" title="Profile and articles by Adam Cox" class="author url fn" rel="author">Adam Cox</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goodmanryan/" title="Profile and articles by Ryan Goodman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ryan Goodman</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 9th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105538/interpol-transparency-reform/">Interpol General Assembly Inches Forward on Transparency, Still Needs Reform Strategy</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/bromundted/" title="Profile and articles by Ted R. Bromund" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ted R. Bromund</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/grossmansandra/" title="Profile and articles by Sandra Grossman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Sandra Grossman</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 9th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105406/georgia-protests-letter-us-diplomats/">Open Letter on Georgia from Former US Diplomats</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kramerdavidj/" title="Profile and articles by David J. Kramer" class="author url fn" rel="author">David J. Kramer</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/herbstjohne/" title="Profile and articles by Ambassador (ret) John E. Herbst" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ambassador (ret) John E. Herbst</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 3rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105321/military-immigration-enforcement-deportation/">Deployment of the U.S. Military for Immigration Enforcement: A Primer</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goiteinelizabeth/" title="Profile and articles by Elizabeth Goitein" class="author url fn" rel="author">Elizabeth Goitein</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 3rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105181/drones-graves-mexicos-disappeared/">Camera-Fitted Drones May Help Locate Graves of Mexico’s Disappeared</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/garciareyeskarina/" title="Profile and articles by Karina García-Reyes" class="author url fn" rel="author">Karina García-Reyes</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/moctezumamiguel/" title="Profile and articles by Miguel Moctezuma" class="author url fn" rel="author">Miguel Moctezuma</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 26th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105176/birthright-citizenship-undocumented-immigrants-2/">Birthright Citizenship and Undocumented Immigrants</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/sominilya/" title="Profile and articles by Ilya Somin" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ilya Somin</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 25th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105048/icc-arrest-warrants/">Nuts & Bolts of the International Criminal Court Arrest Warrants in the ‘Situation in Palestine’</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/dannenbaumtom/" title="Profile and articles by Tom Dannenbaum" class="author url fn" rel="author">Tom Dannenbaum</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 22nd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105019/trump-ukraine-policy-peace-talks/">To ‘End’ War in Ukraine, Trump Might Be Tougher on Putin Than Critics Think</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/violagienger/" title="Profile and articles by Viola Gienger" class="author url fn" rel="author">Viola Gienger</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 21st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104929/ukraine-biden-trump-missiles/">Biden’s Final Efforts on Ukraine — and Trump’s First Moves</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/frieddaniel/" title="Profile and articles by Ambassador Daniel Fried" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ambassador Daniel Fried</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 19th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104770/new-technology-atrocity-prevention/">Thinking Beyond Risks: A Symposium on Tech and Atrocity Prevention</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/whiddengwendolyn/" title="Profile and articles by Gwendolyn Whidden" class="author url fn" rel="author">Gwendolyn Whidden</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 19th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104800/sanctions-effectiveness-models/">Do Sanctions Work? It Depends. Burma and the West Bank Might Be Models.</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/bradbrooksrubin/" title="Profile and articles by Brad Brooks-Rubin" class="author url fn" rel="author">Brad Brooks-Rubin</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 13th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104728/ukraine-constitution-conscientious-objectors/">As Ukraine Struggles for Troops, Its Constitutional Court Considers the Rights of Conscientious Objectors</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/nekoliakandrii/" title="Profile and articles by Andrii Nekoliak" class="author url fn" rel="author">Andrii Nekoliak</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 12th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104676/american-ai-leadership-requires-support-open-source/">The United States Must Win The Global Open Source AI Race</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/mcbridekeegan/" title="Profile and articles by Keegan McBride" class="author url fn" rel="author">Keegan McBride</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/woodleyballdean/" title="Profile and articles by Dean W. Ball" class="author url fn" rel="author">Dean W. Ball</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 7th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104622/journalist-in-exile-laments-kyrgyzstan-crackdown-now-extending-to-his-12-year-old-son/">Journalist in Exile Laments Kyrgyzstan Crackdown, Now Extending to His 12-Year-Old Son</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/temirovbolot/" title="Profile and articles by Bolot Temirov" class="author url fn" rel="author">Bolot Temirov</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 6th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104655/real-time-litigation-tracker-election/">Election 2024 Real-Time Litigation Tracker</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/vancejoyce/" title="Profile and articles by Joyce Vance" class="author url fn" rel="author">Joyce Vance</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/geemadison/" title="Profile and articles by Madison Gee" class="author url fn" rel="author">Madison Gee</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 5th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104564/election-top-10-nov-4/">Top 10 Election Litigation Cases in 2024 Implicating the Rule of Law</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 4th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104448/older-people-human-rights-africa/">A Historic Day for Older People and Human Rights Across Africa</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/mugabowishemaelie/" title="Profile and articles by Elie Mugabowishema" class="author url fn" rel="author">Elie Mugabowishema</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/buchananjane/" title="Profile and articles by Jane Buchanan" class="author url fn" rel="author">Jane Buchanan</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 4th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104398/new-interpol-chief-abuses-reforms/">As Interpol Gets New Secretary General, What are the Risks of Abuses Over Reforms?</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/bromundted/" title="Profile and articles by Ted R. Bromund" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ted R. Bromund</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/grossmansandra/" title="Profile and articles by Sandra Grossman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Sandra Grossman</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/greenbergilan/" title="Profile and articles by Ilan Greenberg" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ilan Greenberg</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 1st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104416/congress-protect-americans-transnational-repression/">Congress Should Protect Americans from Transnational Repression</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/ahmedrasheed/" title="Profile and articles by Rasheed Ahmed" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rasheed Ahmed</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 31st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104451/pentagon-plan-protect-civilians-promises/">Is The Pentagon’s Plan to Protect Civilians Living up to its Promises?</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/hunkemadison/" title="Profile and articles by Madison Hunke" class="author url fn" rel="author">Madison Hunke</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 31st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104393/election-top-10-oct-29/">Top 10 Election Litigation Cases in 2024 Implicating the Rule of Law</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 30th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104407/authoritarianism-plutocracy-press-freedom/">Rising Authoritarianism and Plutocracy Are a Dangerous Mix for Press Freedom</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kleinfeldrachel/" title="Profile and articles by Rachel Kleinfeld" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rachel Kleinfeld</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 30th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104385/presumptive-privilege-trump-pence/">Does a “Presumptive” Privilege Protect President Trump from Prosecution for Pressuring Pence?</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/alschuleralbert/" title="Profile and articles by Albert W. Alschuler" class="author url fn" rel="author">Albert W. Alschuler</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 29th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104255/frictionless-government-national-security-constitution/">Frictionless Government and the National Security Constitution</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/deeksashley/" title="Profile and articles by Ashley Deeks" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ashley Deeks</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eichensehrkristen/" title="Profile and articles by Kristen Eichensehr" class="author url fn" rel="author">Kristen Eichensehr</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 28th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104348/israel-strikes-against-iran/">Making Sense of International Law in Light of Israel and Iran’s Latest Round of “Retaliation”</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/lieblicheliav/" title="Profile and articles by Eliav Lieblich" class="author url fn" rel="author">Eliav Lieblich</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 26th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104334/washington-post-endorsement-bezos/">On Dictatorship and Self-Censorship: Lessons the Owner of a Sudanese Newspaper Could Give Jeff Bezos</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/hamiltonrebecca/" title="Profile and articles by Rebecca Hamilton" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rebecca Hamilton</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 25th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104328/dod-directive-changes/">Much Ado About Nothing: Recent Changes to Department of Defense Directive 5240.01</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/nunnjoseph/" title="Profile and articles by Joseph Nunn" class="author url fn" rel="author">Joseph Nunn</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goiteinelizabeth/" title="Profile and articles by Elizabeth Goitein" class="author url fn" rel="author">Elizabeth Goitein</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 25th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104242/memorandum-ai-national-security/">The U.S. National Security Memorandum on AI: Leading Experts Weigh In</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/just-security-admin/" title="Profile and articles by Just Security" class="author url fn" rel="author">Just Security</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 25th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104206/fair-fast-asylum-processing-switzerland/">Fair and Fast Asylum Processing: Lessons from Switzerland</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/ghezelbashdaniel/" title="Profile and articles by Daniel Ghezelbash" class="author url fn" rel="author">Daniel Ghezelbash</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/hruschkaconstantin/" title="Profile and articles by Constantin Hruschka" class="author url fn" rel="author">Constantin Hruschka</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 24th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104174/election-top-10-oct-23/">Top 10 Election Litigation Cases in 2024 Implicating the Rule of Law</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 23rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104130/rule-of-law-index-2024/">Rule of Law Index Shows Some Rays of Hope Amidst Continuing Global Recession</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/andersenelizabeth/" title="Profile and articles by Elizabeth Andersen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Elizabeth Andersen</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/evangelidesalicia/" title="Profile and articles by Alicia Evangelides" class="author url fn" rel="author">Alicia Evangelides</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 23rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104036/heat-map-january-6th-defendants-2/">Heat Map of January 6th Defendants Across the United States</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goodmanryan/" title="Profile and articles by Ryan Goodman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ryan Goodman</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 17th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103956/proud-boys-threat-assessment/">Proud Boys Threat Assessment: From the Planning of January 6th to Future Scenarios</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/joscelyntom/" title="Profile and articles by Tom Joscelyn" class="author url fn" rel="author">Tom Joscelyn</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 17th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103773/top-10-election-litigation/">Top 10 Election Litigation Cases in 2024 Implicating the Rule of Law</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 16th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103743/lifting-russia-sanctions/">Lifting Russia Sanctions – What Can a President Do Unilaterally?</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/markustaisa/" title="Profile and articles by Taisa Markus" class="author url fn" rel="author">Taisa Markus</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 16th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103918/jack-goldsmith-jack-smith-explanation/">Refuting the Latest Baseless Attacks Against Special Counsel Jack Smith</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/weissmannandrew/" title="Profile and articles by Andrew Weissmann" class="author url fn" rel="author">Andrew Weissmann</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goodmanryan/" title="Profile and articles by Ryan Goodman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ryan Goodman</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 15th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103838/un-future-summit-can-teach/">What the UN’s Summit of the Future Can Teach Us – When the Dust Settles</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/streetjordan/" title="Profile and articles by Jordan Street" class="author url fn" rel="author">Jordan Street</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 11th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103818/scenario-planning-january-6th/">The “War Game” Documentary, and Simulating a Worse January 6th</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/rudesilldakota/" title="Profile and articles by Dakota S. Rudesill" class="author url fn" rel="author">Dakota S. Rudesill</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 10th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103777/maintaining-the-rule-of-law-in-the-age-of-ai/">Maintaining the Rule of Law in the Age of AI</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/szilagyikatie/" title="Profile and articles by Katie Szilagyi" class="author url fn" rel="author">Katie Szilagyi</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 9th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103478/2024-election-litigation-top-10/">Top 10 Election Litigation Cases in 2024 Implicating the Rule of Law</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/angelsamara/" title="Profile and articles by Samara Angel" class="author url fn" rel="author">Samara Angel</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/booneclare/" title="Profile and articles by Clare Boone" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clare Boone</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 8th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103317/shattering-illusions-how-cyber-threat-intelligence-augments-legal-action-against-russias-influence-operations/">Shattering Illusions: How Cyber Threat Intelligence Augments Legal Action against Russia’s Influence Operations</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kruschmasonw/" title="Profile and articles by Mason W. Krusch" class="author url fn" rel="author">Mason W. Krusch</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 8th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103464/beyond-law-reaffirming-the-centrality-of-ethics-in-war/">Beyond Law: Reaffirming the Centrality of Ethics in War</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/schwarzelke/" title="Profile and articles by Elke Schwarz" class="author url fn" rel="author">Elke Schwarz</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/renicneil/" title="Profile and articles by Neil Renic" class="author url fn" rel="author">Neil Renic</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 7th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103533/whos-who-jack-smith-immunity-brief/">Who’s Who in Jack Smith’s Immunity Brief</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/klasfeldadam/" title="Profile and articles by Adam Klasfeld" class="author url fn" rel="author">Adam Klasfeld</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 4th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103433/unlawful-private-militias-government-response/">The Threat from Unlawful Private Militias Has Evolved. 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Scott Adams</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 3rd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103406/iran-israel-escalation/">Threats and Response Options in the Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/rosenbrianna/" title="Profile and articles by Brianna Rosen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Brianna Rosen</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 2nd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103380/un-future-pact-reform/">The UN’s New Pact for the Future: A Milestone That Can Set a Path for Change</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/ponziorichard/" title="Profile and articles by Richard Ponzio" class="author url fn" rel="author">Richard Ponzio</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 2nd, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103339/artificial-intelligence-at-2024-united-nations/">AI at UNGA79: Recapping Key Themes</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/aptclara/" title="Profile and articles by Clara Apt" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clara Apt</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 1st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/88039/trumps-legal-and-political-calendar-all-the-dates-you-need-to-know/">Master Calendar of Trump Court Dates: Criminal and Civil Cases</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/eisennorman/" title="Profile and articles by Norman L. Eisen" class="author url fn" rel="author">Norman L. Eisen</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goodmanryan/" title="Profile and articles by Ryan Goodman" class="author url fn" rel="author">Ryan Goodman</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/wattsiven/" title="Profile and articles by Siven Watt" class="author url fn" rel="author">Siven Watt</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/barrilleauxfrancois/" title="Profile and articles by Francois Barrilleaux" class="author url fn" rel="author">Francois Barrilleaux</a></p> <p class="date">Oct 1st, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/103200/state-department-reform-commission/">The State Department Reform Commission: A Once in A Generation Opportunity to Reform American Diplomacy</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/spokojnydan/" title="Profile and articles by Dan Spokojny" class="author url fn" rel="author">Dan Spokojny</a></p> <p class="date">Sep 30th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a 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href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/just-security-admin/" title="Profile and articles by Just Security" class="author url fn" rel="author">Just Security</a></p> <p class="date">Feb 14th, 2025</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/">Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/just-security-admin/" title="Profile and articles by Just Security" class="author url fn" rel="author">Just Security</a></p> <p class="date">Feb 16th, 2025</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105064/mapping-state-reactions-icc/">Mapping State Reactions to the ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/ingberrebecca/" title="Profile and articles by Rebecca Ingber" class="author url fn" rel="author">Rebecca Ingber</a></p> <p class="date">Dec 10th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rhetoric-against-ukraine-a-collection/">Russia’s Eliminationist Rhetoric Against Ukraine: A Collection</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/aptclara/" title="Profile and articles by Clara Apt" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clara Apt</a></p> <p class="date">Aug 26th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/100235/unga-79-expert-analysis-resources/">UNGA 79: Expert Analysis & Resources</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/aptclara/" title="Profile and articles by Clara Apt" class="author url fn" rel="author">Clara Apt</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/nirmaya/" title="Profile and articles by Maya Nir" class="author url fn" rel="author">Maya Nir</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/violagienger/" title="Profile and articles by Viola Gienger" class="author url fn" rel="author">Viola Gienger</a></p> <p class="date">Sep 19th, 2024</p> </li></ul></div></aside><aside id="js-scrolling-content-6" class="widget js-scrolling-content clearfix"><h3 class="flexible-content-title">Series</h3><div class="flexible-content posts custom-scroll clearfix" style="height:350px;"><ul class="posts-list-min"><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/104770/new-technology-atrocity-prevention/">Thinking Beyond Risks: A Symposium on Tech and Atrocity Prevention</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/whiddengwendolyn/" title="Profile and articles by Gwendolyn Whidden" class="author url fn" rel="author">Gwendolyn Whidden</a></p> <p class="date">Nov 19th, 2024</p> </li><li> <h4><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/96975/icc-prosecutor-policy-complementarity-cooperation/">Symposium: ICC Prosecutor Launches Policy on Complementarity and Cooperation</a></h4> <p class="author">by <a 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Barela" class="author url fn" rel="author">Steven J. Barela</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/fallonmark/" title="Profile and articles by Mark Fallon" class="author url fn" rel="author">Mark Fallon</a></p> <p class="date">Jun 1st, 2021</p> </li></ul></div></aside><div class="capitol-breaker"><h3 class="widget-title">Key Topics</h3><div class="sub-title">Scroll within to view all topics.</div></div><aside id="js-scrolling-content-2" class="widget js-scrolling-content clearfix"><div class="flexible-content links custom-scroll clearfix" style="height:255px;"><ul class="link-list"><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/artificial-intelligence/">Artificial Intelligence (AI)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/84303/just-securitys-climate-archive/">Climate Change</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/congressional-oversight/">Congressional Oversight</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/counterterrorism/">Counterterrorism</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/cybersecurity/">Cybersecurity</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/democracy/">Democracy</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/diplomacy/">Diplomacy</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/disinformation/">Disinformation</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/human-rights/">Human Rights</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/immigration/">Immigration</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/intelligence/">Intelligence activities</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/international-criminal-law/">International Criminal Law</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/category/armed-conflict/israel-hamas-war/">Israel-Hamas War</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/january-6th-attack-on-us-capitol/">January 6th Attack on US Capitol</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/law-of-armed-conflict-loac/">Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/local-voices/">Local Voices</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/racial-justice/">Racial Justice</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/social-media-platforms/">Social Media Platforms</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/united-nations/">United Nations (UN)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/tag/use-of-force/">Use of Force</a></li></ul></div></aside></div></div><div id="post-meta-after" class="pagewidth pw1400 clearfix"><div class="post-bottom-row about-authors clearfix"><div class="secondary-left"><h3>About the Author(s)</h3></div><div class="primary"><div class="post-author-bio"><h4 title="Read bio and view posts by this author"><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/perryvalery/">Valery <span>Perry</span></a></h4><p>Senior Associate at Democratization Policy Council, and editor of the book "Extremism and Violent Extremism in Serbia: 21st Century Manifestations of an Historical Challenge."</p> </div><p class="clearfix"> <a href="mailto:lte@justsecurity.org" class="button has-icon icon-fa"> <i class="fa fa-envelope-o" aria-hidden="true"></i> Send A Letter To The Editor </a> </p></div></div><div class="post-bottom-row related-posts clearfix"><div class="secondary-left"><h3>Read these related stories next:</h3></div><div class="primary archive-wrap"><div class="result-entry type-post"> <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105451/trumps-endgame-ukraine-war/" class="thumb" style="background-image:url(https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1152460290-scaled-e1733326565387.jpg?fit=768%2C372&ssl=1);"></a> <h3><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/105451/trumps-endgame-ukraine-war/">Trump’s Endgame for the War in Ukraine</a></h3> <p class="author">by <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/author/kelly/" title="Profile and articles by Michael J. 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