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Les principaux mécanismes de la spéculation </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title="SPÉCULATION, La spéculation est-elle déstabilisante ?" href="/encyclopedie/speculation/2-la-speculation-est-elle-destabilisante/"> 2. La spéculation est-elle déstabilisante ? </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title="SPÉCULATION, La spéculation a changé de nature et de dimension avec le globalisation financière" href="/encyclopedie/speculation/3-la-speculation-a-change-de-nature-et-de-dimension-avec-le-globalisation-financiere/"> 3. La spéculation a changé de nature et de dimension avec le globalisation financière </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title="SPÉCULATION, Bibliographie" href="/encyclopedie/speculation/4-bibliographie/"> 4. Bibliographie </a> </li> </ul> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-universalis" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#free-toc" aria-expanded="false" title="Afficher / masquer le sommaire"> <i aria-hidden="true" class="fa fa-fw fa-eye"></i> Sommaire </button> </div> <h1 class="mb-1"> <strong>SPÉCULATION</strong> </h1> <ul class="pagination justify-content-center public-links "><li class="page-item active"><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 1" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">1</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 2" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">2</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 3" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">3</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 4" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">4</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 5" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">5</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 6" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">6</a></li></ul><p class="text-sm text-muted mb-1">Article modifié le <time datetime="2025-01-29"> 29/01/2025 </time></p><div class="content paged type-article" ><div class="block_1" data-ucode="yC130169_0"><i class="anchor" id="yC130169_0"></i><p>Spéculer, c'est prendre délibérément un risque, dans l'espoir d'un gain ultérieur. Si la spéculation est entendue dans son sens le plus large, on peut dire qu'une partie importante de l'activité économique revêt une dimension spéculative : l'entrepreneur qui investit parie sur un accroissement de ses ventes futures le banquier qui prête anticipe sur les revenus futurs de son client. Mais l'essentiel de la spéculation prend place sur les marchés financiers. On considère généralement qu'il y a trois catégories d'agents sur les marchés financiers : les opérateurs en couverture qui cherchent à se protéger contre les risques liés aux variations des <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Le prix d'un bien en tant que nombre associé à l'unité de ce bien n'a pas de véritable signification en soi : seuls les rapports de prix – les prix relatifs – des différents biens en ont une. Néanmoins, raisonner sur des prix relatifs n'est possible que dans une économie de troc comportant peu de biens. Sinon, on choisit un bien de référence, appelé numéraire, auquel on attribu..." title="Article : PRIX" href="/encyclopedie/prix/">prix</a> d'actifs (cours boursiers, cours de change), les arbitragistes dont l'objectif est d'échanger des titres (ou des devises) dans le but de réaliser des gains sur les différences de <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Les taux d'intérêt sont des variables importantes pour l'économie, car ils influencent directement les deux principaux postes de la demande : la consommation et l' investissement , ainsi que plus indirectement le taux de change et le commerce extérieur. Par leur impact sur la demande, ils ont aussi des effets sur l' inflation . Ainsi, dans tous les grands pays avancés, les taux d'inté..." title="Article : TAUX D'INTÉRÊT" href="/encyclopedie/taux-d-interet/">taux d'intérêt</a> ou de prix d'actifs, et les spéculateurs.</p><p>La définition de la spéculation donnée par <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Biographie de NICHOLAS KALDOR (1908-1986). Économiste britannique d'origine hongroise, Nicholas Kaldor, né à Budapest en 1908, est mort à Cambridge en 1986. Professeur à l'université de Cambridge (1952), conseiller des gouvernements travaillistes de l'après-guerre et de nombreux pays, membre de la Chambre des lords (1974), il contribue à l'évolution de la théorie économique dans des dom..." title="Article : NICHOLAS KALDOR (1908-1986)" href="/encyclopedie/nicholas-kaldor/">Nicholas Kaldor</a> en 1939 est devenue classique : « achat ou vente de biens avec intention de revente (ou de rachat) à une date ultérieure, lorsque l'action est motivée par l'espoir d'une modification du prix en vigueur et non par l'avantage lié à l'usage du bien ». Partant de cette définition et en l'élargissant au cas de la finance, les opérations spéculatives ont deux traits caractéristiques : il s'agit d'opérations à la fois <em>risquées</em>, motivées par l'espoir d'une plus-value, et <em>sèches</em>, c'est-à-dire sans contrepartie directe dans la sphère réelle de l'économie.</p><div class="clearfix"></div></div><div class="block_1" data-ucode="yC130169_1"><i class="anchor" id="yC130169_1"></i><h2>Les principaux mécanismes de la spéculation</h2><p>Prenons le cas de la spéculation sur le marché des changes (le raisonnement s'applique aussi aux marchés boursiers). Est spéculateur l'opérateur qui prend volontairement un risque de change, en espérant que l'évolution future du cours de change lui permettra de réaliser un gain en capital. On dit qu'il se met en « position de change », c'est-à-dire dans une situation telle que ses avoirs en devise étrangère sont inférieurs, ou supérieurs, à ses dettes dans cette devise. Par exemple, s'il prend une position longue sur une monnaie étrangère en achetant celle-ci (avoirs supérieurs aux dettes dans cette devise), l'appréciation de cette monnaie lui fera réaliser une plus-value. Contrairement aux opérations de change liées aux transactions commerciales (importations et exportations de biens et services), les opérations spéculatives se suffisent généralement à elles-mêmes et n'ont pas nécessairement pour support une transaction commerciale ou financière. C'est en ce sens qu'elles sont souvent qualifiées d'opérations « sèches ».</p><p>L'opération de spéculation peut être réalisée en utilisant des « produits dérivés » qui correspondent à deux catégories d'instruments à terme : les instruments financiers à terme ferme (dénommés <em>futures</em> sur les marchés organisés et <em>forward</em> sur les marchés de gré à gré) et les options. Ces nouveaux instruments constituent l'une des innovations financières majeures du dernier quart du <span class="pc">xx</span><sup>e</sup> siècle. Le principe de l'opération spéculative est toujours le même : l'opérateur prend une position longue (acheteuse) à terme sur la monnaie (ou sur le titre) dont il anticipe une appréciation future. La technique des <em>futures</em> lui permet de mettre en jeu des sommes importantes en ne versant au départ que le montant du dépôt de garantie (le <em>deposit</em>) exigé (par une chambre de compensation sur les marchés organisés), ce qui lui permet de faire jouer un « effet de levier » important.</p><p>Les produits dérivés sont devenus l'une des armes les plus efficaces de la spéculation. Une part importante des opérations sur produits dérivés est de nature spéculative. Le caractère<a href="javascript:" title="Lire la suite" class="read-more ms-1">[...]</a></p></div><div class="clearfix"></div></div><ul class="pagination justify-content-center public-links "><li class="page-item active"><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 1" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">1</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 2" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">2</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 3" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">3</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 4" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">4</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 5" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">5</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 6" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">6</a></li></ul><div class="folio-block"><p class="folio-block-title text-center text-uc"><strong>La suite de cet article est accessible aux abonnés</strong></p><ul class="list-unstyled"><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Des contenus variés, complets et fiables</li><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Accessible sur tous les écrans</li><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Pas de publicité</li></ul><p class="text-center"><a href="/abonnement/" class="btn btn-cta text-uc" id="folio-button" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="Block bottom">Découvrez nos offres </a></p><p class="text-center text-sm"> Déjà abonné ? <a href="/identification/" id="folio-login">Se connecter</a></p></div><div id="ad_mpuslot" class="pub-container text-center"><div class="pub-placeholder"></div></div><section class="mt-3 mb-5"><i class="anchor" id="C130169_AUTHORS"></i><p class="title-minor">Écrit par</p><ul class="list-group"><li class="list-group-item" data-dc-author="PLIHON, Dominique"><a title="Auteur : Dominique PLIHON" rel="author" href="/auteurs/dominique-plihon/"><strong>Dominique PLIHON</strong></a> : professeur émérite d'économie, université Sorbonne Paris nord </li></ul></section><section class="mb-5"><div class="text-center mb-3 d-print-none"><a class="d-inline-flex flex-row justify-content-center align-items-center btn btn-light btn-large text-start" title="Carte mentale : SPÉCULATION" href="/carte-mentale/speculation/"><i class="fa fa-sitemap fa-rotate-270 me-1 fs-1 text-universalis"></i><p class="m-0"><strong class="fs-4">Carte mentale</strong><br /> Élargissez votre recherche dans Universalis </p></a></div></section> <section class="mb-5 article-classification" data-print-label="la classification" data-print-target=".article-classification"> <i class="anchor" id="yC130169_ROOT_LINES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Classification</p> <nav aria-label="Classification 1"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Économie et gestion" href="/classification/economie-et-gestion/"> Économie et gestion </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Marchés de capitaux" href="/classification/economie-et-gestion/marches-de-capitaux/"> Marchés de capitaux </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Bourses" href="/classification/economie-et-gestion/marches-de-capitaux/bourses/"> Bourses </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Opérations de Bourse" href="/classification/economie-et-gestion/marches-de-capitaux/bourses/operations-de-bourse/"> Opérations de Bourse </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Spéculation boursière"> <a title="Classification : Spéculation boursière" href="/classification/economie-et-gestion/marches-de-capitaux/bourses/operations-de-bourse/speculation-boursiere/"> Spéculation boursière </a> </li> </ol> </nav> </section> <section class="mb-5 d-print-none learn-more"> <i class="anchor" id="yC130169_REFERENCES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Autres références</p> <ul class="list-group"> <li class="list-group-item"> <h3 class="fs-5 m-0 mt-1"> <a href="/encyclopedie/agiotage/"> <span class="rg">AGIOTAGE</span> </a> </h3> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet mb-1 text-muted"> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">Écrit par <span rel="author">Georges BLUMBERG</span> </li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">114 mots</li> </ul> <div class="snippet-content mt-3"> <p> Dérivé du mot <em>agio</em>, ce terme désigne, avec un accent péjoratif, les manipulations fructueuses des effets de commerce et des valeurs mobilières, et, par extension, toute opération financière ayant un caractère spéculatif plus ou moins teinté d'illégalité. Employé pour la première fois lors de la crise...</p> </div> </li> <li class="list-group-item"> <h3 class="fs-5 m-0 mt-1"> <a href="/encyclopedie/albanie/#c4962"> <span class="rg">ALBANIE</span> </a> </h3> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet mb-1 text-muted"> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">Écrit par <span rel="author">Anne-Marie AUTISSIER</span> , <span rel="author">Odile DANIEL</span> , <span rel="author"> Encyclopædia Universalis</span> et <span rel="author">Christian GUT</span> </li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">22 078 mots</li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">9 médias </li> </ul> <div class="d-none d-md-inline-block float-start me-3"> <a class="protected" title="Article : ALBANIE" href="/encyclopedie/albanie/"> <img class="rounded shadow" loading="lazy" alt="Albanie : carte physique - crédits : Encyclopædia Universalis France" width="125" height="125" src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/4/4/csm_at000304_f792d08725.webp"/> </a> </div> <div class="snippet-content mt-3"> L'apport massif des travailleurs émigrés albanais est à l'origine d'un phénomène spéculatif que l'Albanie n'a pas été la seule à connaître (comme on l'a vu en Roumanie avec le phénomène Caritas dans les années 1994-1995 ou encore en Russie en 1993 avec MMM). En l'absence d'un système bancaire fiable... </div> </li> <li class="list-group-item"> <h3 class="fs-5 m-0 mt-1"> <a href="/encyclopedie/art-contemporain/#c4962"> <span class="rg">ART CONTEMPORAIN</span> </a> </h3> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet mb-1 text-muted"> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">Écrit par <span rel="author">Yves MICHAUD</span> et <span rel="author">Raymonde MOULIN</span> </li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">12 433 mots</li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">4 médias </li> </ul> <div class="d-none d-md-inline-block float-start me-3"> <a class="protected" title="Article : ART CONTEMPORAIN" href="/encyclopedie/art-contemporain/"> <img class="rounded shadow" loading="lazy" alt="<it>Canyon</it> de M. Mayer à la Foire internationale d'art de Bâle, 2007 - crédits : Fabrice Coffrini/ AFP" width="125" height="125" src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/4/4/csm_pa086277_5c70c7b2e5.webp"/> </a> </div> <div class="snippet-content mt-3"> La <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Le terme « métaphore » appartient, à l'origine, au vocabulaire technique de la rhétorique et désigne une « figure de signification » par laquelle un mot se trouve recevoir dans une phrase un sens différent de celui qu'il possède dans l'usage courant. On remarque que, dans ce vocabulaire riche en mots rares et connus des spécialistes (du type zeugme, anacoluthe, hypallage, prot..." title="Article : MÉTAPHORE" href="/encyclopedie/metaphore/">métaphore</a> de la Bourse, fréquente dans les mondes de l'art et dans l'orchestration médiatique, n'est pourtant pas dénuée de tout fondement.Les comportements spéculatifs de certains des acteurs du monde de l'art, appartenant souvent aux milieux financiers, sont calqués sur les comportements... </div> </li> <li class="list-group-item"> <h3 class="fs-5 m-0 mt-1"> <a href="/encyclopedie/banque-centrale-europeenne-bce/#c4962"> <span class="rg">BANQUE CENTRALE EUROPÉENNE </span><span class="rm">(BCE)</span> </a> </h3> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet mb-1 text-muted"> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">Écrit par <span rel="author">Olivier MARTY</span> </li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">4 591 mots</li> <li class="list-inline-item text-sm">1 média </li> </ul> <div class="d-none d-md-inline-block float-start me-3"> <a class="protected" title="Article : BANQUE CENTRALE EUROP&Eacute;ENNE (BCE)" href="/encyclopedie/banque-centrale-europeenne-bce/"> <img class="rounded shadow" loading="lazy" alt="Banque centrale européenne - crédits : muratart/ Shutterstock" width="125" height="125" src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/b/c/csm_ph240569_5f1c89c681.webp"/> </a> </div> <div class="snippet-content mt-3"> ...délégation, fondamentale, de la supervision des grandes banques européennes à la BCE dans le cadre de l’union bancaire, ont dompté les marchés financiers en mettant fin à la spéculation sur les taux souverains et assuré ainsi l’intégrité de l’union monétaire. Le rôle de « prêteur en dernier ressort » de la... </div> </li> <li class="list-unstyled text-center mt-3"> <a class="btn btn-sm btn-primary" title="Afficher la liste complète des références" rel="related" href="/index/speculation/"> Afficher les 42 références <i aria-hidden="true" class="fa fa-fw fa-chevron-right"></i> </a> </li> </ul> </section> <section class="mb-5 d-print-none article-indexes learn-more"> <i class="anchor" id="yC130169_INDEXES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Voir aussi</p> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet"> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : RISQUE ÉCONOMIQUE" href="/index/risque-economique/"> <span class="rg">RISQUE ÉCONOMIQUE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : MARCHÉS DÉRIVÉS" href="/index/marches-derives/"> <span class="rg">MARCHÉS DÉRIVÉS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : PLUS-VALUE" href="/index/plus-value/"> <span class="rg">PLUS-VALUE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : INSTABILITÉ FINANCIÈRE" href="/index/instabilite-financiere/"> <span class="rg">INSTABILITÉ FINANCIÈRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : INNOVATION FINANCIÈRE" href="/index/innovation-financiere/"> <span class="rg">INNOVATION FINANCIÈRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : MARCHÉS À TERME" href="/index/marches-a-terme/"> <span class="rg">MARCHÉS À TERME</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CONTRAT À TERME ou FUTURE" href="/index/contrat-a-terme-future/"> <span class="rg">CONTRAT À TERME </span><span class="rm">ou </span><span class="rg">FUTURE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : AGRICOLES PRIX" href="/index/prix-agricoles/"> <span class="rg">AGRICOLES </span><span class="pc">PRIX</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : RÉGULATION FINANCIÈRE INTERNATIONALE" href="/index/regulation-financiere-internationale/"> <span class="rg">RÉGULATION FINANCIÈRE INTERNATIONALE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : FONDS SPÉCULATIFS ou HEDGE FUNDS" href="/index/fonds-speculatifs-hedge-funds/"> <span class="rg">FONDS SPÉCULATIFS </span><span class="rm">ou </span><span class="rg">HEDGE FUNDS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : GLOBALISATION FINANCIÈRE" href="/index/globalisation-financiere/"> <span class="rg">GLOBALISATION FINANCIÈRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CHANGE FLOTTANT ou FLEXIBLE ou FLOTTEMENT MONÉTAIRE" href="/index/change-flottant-flottement-monetaire/"> <span class="rg">CHANGE FLOTTANT </span><span class="rm">ou </span><span class="rg">FLEXIBLE </span><span class="rm">ou </span><span class="rg">FLOTTEMENT MONÉTAIRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : COUVERTURE BOURSIÈRE" 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