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<!doctype html> <html data-n-head-ssr lang="en" data-n-head="%7B%22lang%22:%7B%22ssr%22:%22en%22%7D%7D"> <head > <link data-n-head="ssr" rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="https://brand.frontiersin.org/m/ed3f9ce840a03d7/favicon_16-tenantFavicon-Frontiers.png"> <link data-n-head="ssr" rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="https://brand.frontiersin.org/m/ed3f9ce840a03d7/favicon_32-tenantFavicon-Frontiers.png"> <link data-n-head="ssr" rel="apple-touch-icon" type="image/png" sizes="180x180" href="https://brand.frontiersin.org/m/ed3f9ce840a03d7/favicon_180-tenantFavicon-Frontiers.png"> <title>Frontiers | Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future</title><meta data-n-head="ssr" charset="utf-8"><meta data-n-head="ssr" name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="charset" charset="utf-8"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="mobile-web-app-capable" name="mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="apple-mobile-web-app-title" name="apple-mobile-web-app-title" content="Frontiers | Articles"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="theme-color" name="theme-color" content="#0C4DED"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="description" property="description" name="description" content="We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that ..."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:title" property="og:title" name="title" content="Frontiers | Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:description" property="og:description" name="description" content="We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that ..."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="keywords" name="keywords" content="sustainability,extinction,Climate Change,Political will,Human population,consumption"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:site_name" property="og:site_name" name="site_name" content="Frontiers"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:image" property="og:image" name="image" content="https://images-provider.frontiersin.org/api/ipx/w=1200&f=png/https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:type" property="og:type" name="type" content="article"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:url" property="og:url" name="url" content="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/full"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="twitter:card" name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_volume" name="citation_volume" content="1"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_journal_title" name="citation_journal_title" content="Frontiers in Conservation Science"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_publisher" name="citation_publisher" content="Frontiers"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_journal_abbrev" name="citation_journal_abbrev" content="Front. Conserv. Sci."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_issn" name="citation_issn" content="2673-611X"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_doi" name="citation_doi" content="10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_firstpage" name="citation_firstpage" content="615419"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_language" name="citation_language" content="English"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_title" name="citation_title" content="Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_keywords" name="citation_keywords" content="sustainability; extinction; Climate Change; Political will; Human population; consumption"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_abstract" name="citation_abstract" content="<p>We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists to speak out candidly and accurately when engaging with government, business, and the public. We especially draw attention to the lack of appreciation of the enormous challenges to creating a sustainable future. The added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of ecosystem services on which society depends. The science underlying these issues is strong, but awareness is weak. Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals.</p>"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_pdf_url" name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/pdf"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_online_date" name="citation_online_date" content="2020/12/21"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_publication_date" name="citation_publication_date" content="2021/01/13"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_0" name="citation_author" content="Bradshaw, Corey J. A."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_0" name="citation_author_institution" content="Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Australia"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_1" name="citation_author" content="Ehrlich, Paul R."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_1" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biology, Stanford University, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_2" name="citation_author" content="Beattie, Andrew"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_2" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_3" name="citation_author" content="Ceballos, Gerardo"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_3" name="citation_author_institution" content="Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_4" name="citation_author" content="Crist, Eileen"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_4" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Science, Technology, and Society, Virginia Tech, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_5" name="citation_author" content="Diamond, Joan"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_5" name="citation_author_institution" content="Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Department of Biology, Stanford University, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_6" name="citation_author" content="Dirzo, Rodolfo"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_6" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biology, Stanford University, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_7" name="citation_author" content="Ehrlich, Anne H."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_7" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biology, Stanford University, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_8" name="citation_author" content="Harte, John"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_8" name="citation_author_institution" content="Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_9" name="citation_author" content="Harte, Mary Ellen"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_9" name="citation_author_institution" content="The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_10" name="citation_author" content="Pyke, Graham"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_10" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_11" name="citation_author" content="Raven, Peter H."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_11" name="citation_author_institution" content="Missouri Botanical Garden, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_12" name="citation_author" content="Ripple, William J."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_12" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_13" name="citation_author" content="Saltré, Frédérik"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_13" name="citation_author_institution" content="Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Australia"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_14" name="citation_author" content="Turnbull, Christine"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_14" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_15" name="citation_author" content="Wackernagel, Mathis"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_15" name="citation_author_institution" content="Global Footprint Network, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_16" name="citation_author" content="Blumstein, Daniel T."><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="citation_author_institution_16" name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, United States"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="dc.identifier" name="dc.identifier" content="doi:10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419"><link data-n-head="ssr" rel="manifest" href="/article-pages/_nuxt/manifest.c499fc0a.json" data-hid="manifest"><link data-n-head="ssr" 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ArticleDetails"> <main class="Layout__main"> <div class="ArticleDetails__main"><div class="ArticleLayoutHeader"><div class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info"><p class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info__title"> PERSPECTIVE article </p> <p class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info__journalDate"><span>Front. Conserv. Sci.</span> <span>, 13 January 2021</span></p> <p class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info__journalDate"> Sec. Global Biodiversity Threats </p> <p class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info__doiVolume"><span> Volume 1 - 2020 | </span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419" class="ArticleLayoutHeader__info__doi"> https://doi.org/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419 </a></p> </div>  <p class="ArticleLayoutHeader__isPartOfRT"><span class="ArticleLayoutHeader__isPartOfRT__label">This article is part of the Research Topic</span> <span class="ArticleLayoutHeader__isPartOfRT__title">Frontiers in Conservation Science – Highlights From Its First Year.</span> <span class="Link__wrapper"><a aria-label="View all 10 articles" href="https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/27094/frontiers-in-conservation-science---highlights-from-its-first-year/magazine" target="_self" data-event="customLink-link-a_viewAll10Articles" class="Link Link--linkType Link--maincolor Link--medium Link--icon Link--chevronRight Link--right"><span>View all 10 articles</span></a></span></p></div> <div class="ArticleDetails__main__content"><div class="ArticleDetails__main__content__main ArticleDetails__main__content__main--fullArticle"><div class="JournalAbstract"><div class="JournalAbstract__titleWrapper"><h1>Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future</h1> </div> <div class="RelatedArticles"><div class="Alert Alert--warning"><div class="Alert__icon"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="FeedbackIcon" style="width:24px;"><path fill="#fff" d="M12 10h24v28H12z"></path> <path fill="var(--orange50)" d="M24 2.88a21.12 21.12 0 1 0 0 42.24 21.12 21.12 0 0 0 0-42.24Zm1.92 31.73a.96.96 0 0 1-.96.96h-1.92a.96.96 0 0 1-.96-.96v-1.92a.96.96 0 0 1 .96-.96h1.92a.96.96 0 0 1 .96.96v1.92Zm0-7.68a.96.96 0 0 1-.96.96h-1.92a.96.96 0 0 1-.96-.96V13.49a.96.96 0 0 1 .96-.96h1.92a.96.96 0 0 1 .96.96v13.44Z"></path></svg></div> <div class="Alert__main"><p class="Alert__message">A commentary has been posted on this article:</p> </div> <ol class="Alert__info"><li class="Alert__infoItem"><p class="Alert__infoItem__text">Commentary: Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future</p> <ol class="Alert__infoItem__links"><li><span class="Link__wrapper"><a aria-label="Read general commentary" href="/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2021.666910" data-event="customLink-link-a_readGeneralCommentary" class="Link Link--linkType Link--grey Link--small Link--icon Link--chevronRight Link--right"><span>Read general commentary</span></a></span></li></ol></li></ol></div></div></div> <div class="JournalFullText"><div class="JournalAbstract"> <a id="h1" name="h1"></a> <div class="authors"><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"> <a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1013784" class="user-id-1013784"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1013784/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="\nCorey J. A. Bradshaw,
">Corey J. A. Bradshaw</a><sup>1,2</sup><sup>*</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1184027" class="user-id-1184027"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1184027/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Paul R. Ehrlich
">Paul R. Ehrlich</a><sup>3</sup><sup>*</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1178264" class="user-id-1178264"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1178264/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Andrew Beattie">Andrew Beattie</a><sup>4</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg" alt="Gerardo Ceballos" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';">Gerardo Ceballos<sup>5</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1184092" class="user-id-1184092"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1184092/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Eileen Crist">Eileen Crist</a><sup>6</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg" alt="Joan Diamond" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';">Joan Diamond<sup>7</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/373555" class="user-id-373555"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/373555/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Rodolfo Dirzo">Rodolfo Dirzo</a><sup>3</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1184208" class="user-id-1184208"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1184208/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Anne H. Ehrlich">Anne H. Ehrlich</a><sup>3</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/265517" class="user-id-265517"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/265517/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="John Harte,">John Harte</a><sup>8,9</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1184159" class="user-id-1184159"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1184159/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Mary Ellen Harte">Mary Ellen Harte</a><sup>9</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg" alt="Graham Pyke" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';">Graham Pyke<sup>4</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg" alt="Peter H. Raven" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';">Peter H. Raven<sup>10</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg" alt="William J. Ripple" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';">William J. Ripple<sup>11</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/751533" class="user-id-751533"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/751533/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Frdrik Saltr,">Frédérik Saltré</a><sup>1,2</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1184162" class="user-id-1184162"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1184162/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Christine Turnbull">Christine Turnbull</a><sup>4</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/432076" class="user-id-432076"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/432076/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Mathis Wackernagel">Mathis Wackernagel</a><sup>12</sup></span><span class="author-wrapper notranslate"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/15398" class="user-id-15398"><img class="pr5" src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/15398/74" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://loop.frontiersin.org/cdn/images/profile/default_32.jpg';" alt="Daniel T. Blumstein,
">Daniel T. Blumstein</a><sup>13,14</sup><sup>*</sup></span></div> <ul class="notes"> <li><span><sup>1</sup></span>Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia</li> <li><span><sup>2</sup></span>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, <a style="color:grey;" href="https://epicaustralia.org.au/">EpicAustralia.org</a>, Adelaide, SA, Australia</li> <li><span><sup>3</sup></span>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>4</sup></span>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia</li> <li><span><sup>5</sup></span>Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico</li> <li><span><sup>6</sup></span>Department of Science, Technology, and Society, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>7</sup></span>Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>8</sup></span>Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>9</sup></span>The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, United States</li> <li><span><sup>10</sup></span>Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, United States</li> <li><span><sup>11</sup></span>Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States</li> <li><span><sup>12</sup></span>Global Footprint Network, Oakland, CA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>13</sup></span>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States</li> <li><span><sup>14</sup></span>La Kretz Hall, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States</li> </ul> <p>We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists to speak out candidly and accurately when engaging with government, business, and the public. We especially draw attention to the lack of appreciation of the enormous challenges to creating a sustainable future. The added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of ecosystem services on which society depends. The science underlying these issues is strong, but awareness is weak. Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals.</p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="JournalFullText"> <a id="h2" name="h2"></a><h2>Introduction</h2> <p class="mb15">Humanity is causing a rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth's ability to support complex life. But the mainstream is having difficulty grasping the magnitude of this loss, despite the steady erosion of the fabric of human civilization (<a href="#B31">Ceballos et al., 2015</a>; <a href="#B78">IPBES, 2019</a>; <a href="#B39">Convention on Biological Diversity, 2020</a>; <a href="#B156">WWF, 2020</a>). While suggested solutions abound (<a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>), the current scale of their implementation does not match the relentless progression of biodiversity loss (<a href="#B42">Cumming et al., 2006</a>) and other existential threats tied to the continuous expansion of the human enterprise (<a href="#B116">Rees, 2020</a>). Time delays between ecological deterioration and socio-economic penalties, as with climate disruption for example (<a href="#B79">IPCC, 2014</a>), impede recognition of the magnitude of the challenge and timely counteraction needed. In addition, disciplinary specialization and insularity encourage unfamiliarity with the complex adaptive systems (<a href="#B96">Levin, 1999</a>) in which problems and their potential solutions are embedded (<a href="#B125">Selby, 2006</a>; <a href="#B19">Brand and Karvonen, 2007</a>). Widespread ignorance of human behavior (<a href="#B142">Van Bavel et al., 2020</a>) and the incremental nature of socio-political processes that plan and implement solutions further delay effective action (<a href="#B127">Shanley and López, 2009</a>; <a href="#B85">King, 2016</a>).</p> <p class="mb0">We summarize the state of the natural world in stark form here to help clarify the gravity of the human predicament. We also outline likely future trends in biodiversity decline (<a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>), climate disruption (<a href="#B118">Ripple et al., 2020</a>), and human consumption and population growth to demonstrate the near certainty that these problems will worsen over the coming decades, with negative impacts for centuries to come. Finally, we discuss the ineffectiveness of current and planned actions that are attempting to address the ominous erosion of Earth's life-support system. Ours is not a call to surrender—we aim to provide leaders with a realistic “cold shower” of the state of the planet that is essential for planning to avoid a ghastly future.</p> <a id="h3" name="h3"></a><h2>Biodiversity Loss</h2> <p class="mb0">Major changes in the biosphere are directly linked to the growth of human systems (summarized in <a href="#F1">Figure 1</a>). While the rapid loss of species and populations differs regionally in intensity (<a href="#B31">Ceballos et al., 2015</a>, <a href="#B32">2017</a>, <a href="#B33">2020</a>; <a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>), and most species have not been adequately assessed for extinction risk (<a href="#B151">Webb and Mindel, 2015</a>), certain global trends are obvious. Since the start of agriculture around 11,000 years ago, the biomass of terrestrial vegetation has been halved (<a href="#B55">Erb et al., 2018</a>), with a corresponding loss of >20% of its original biodiversity (<a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>), together denoting that >70% of the Earth's land surface has been altered by <i>Homo sapiens</i> (<a href="#B78">IPBES, 2019</a>). There have been >700 documented vertebrate (<a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>) and ~600 plant (<a href="#B77">Humphreys et al., 2019</a>) species extinctions over the past 500 years, with many more species clearly having gone extinct unrecorded (<a href="#B135">Tedesco et al., 2014</a>). Population sizes of vertebrate species that have been monitored across years have declined by an average of 68% over the last five decades (<a href="#B156">WWF, 2020</a>), with certain population clusters in extreme decline (<a href="#B95">Leung et al., 2020</a>), thus presaging the imminent extinction of their species (<a href="#B33">Ceballos et al., 2020</a>). Overall, perhaps 1 million species are threatened with extinction in the near future out of an estimated 7–10 million eukaryotic species on the planet (<a href="#B104">Mora et al., 2011</a>), with around 40% of plants alone considered endangered (<a href="#B3">Antonelli et al., 2020</a>). Today, the global biomass of wild mammals is <25% of that estimated for the Late Pleistocene (<a href="#B8">Bar-On et al., 2018</a>), while insects are also disappearing rapidly in many regions (<a href="#B149">Wagner, 2020</a>; reviews in <a href="#B143">van Klink et al., 2020</a>).</p> <div class="DottedLine"></div> <div class="Imageheaders">FIGURE 1</div> <div class="FigureDesc"> <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" name="figure1" target="_blank"> <picture> <source type="image/webp" srcset="https://images-provider.frontiersin.org/api/ipx/w=480&f=webp/https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" media="(max-width: 563px)"><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://images-provider.frontiersin.org/api/ipx/w=370&f=webp/https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" media="(max-width: 1024px)"><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://images-provider.frontiersin.org/api/ipx/w=290&f=webp/https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" media="(max-width: 1441px)"><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://images-provider.frontiersin.org/api/ipx/w=410&f=webp/https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" media=""><source type="image/jpg" srcset="https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" media=""> <img src="https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/615419/fcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1/image_m/fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg" alt="www.frontiersin.org" id="F1" loading="lazy"> </picture> </a> <p><strong>Figure 1</strong>. Summary of major environmental-change categories expressed as a percentage change relative to the baseline given in the text. Red indicates the percentage of the category that is damaged, lost, or otherwise affected, whereas blue indicates the percentage that is intact, remaining, or otherwise unaffected. Superscript numbers indicate the following references: <sup>1</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B78">IPBES, 2019</a>; <sup>2</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B64">Halpern et al., 2015</a>; <sup>3</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B89">Krumhansl et al., 2016</a>; <sup>4</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B150">Waycott et al., 2009</a>; <sup>5</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>; <sup>6</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B35">Christensen et al., 2014</a>; <sup>7</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B58">Frieler et al., 2013</a>; <sup>8</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B55">Erb et al., 2018</a>; <sup>9</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B47">Davidson, 2014</a>; <sup>10</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B62">Grill et al., 2019</a>; <sup>11</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B156">WWF, 2020</a>; <sup>12</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B8">Bar-On et al., 2018</a>; <sup>13</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B3">Antonelli et al., 2020</a>; <sup>14</sup><a style="color:grey;" href="#B104">Mora et al., 2011</a>.</p> </div> <div class="clear"></div> <div class="DottedLine"></div> <p class="mb15 w100pc float_left mt15">Freshwater and marine environments have also been severely damaged. Today there is <15% of the original wetland area globally than was present 300 years ago (<a href="#B47">Davidson, 2014</a>), and >75% of rivers >1,000 km long no longer flow freely along their entire course (<a href="#B62">Grill et al., 2019</a>). More than two-thirds of the oceans have been compromised to some extent by human activities (<a href="#B64">Halpern et al., 2015</a>), live coral cover on reefs has halved in <200 years (<a href="#B58">Frieler et al., 2013</a>), seagrass extent has been decreasing by 10% per decade over the last century (<a href="#B150">Waycott et al., 2009</a>; <a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>), kelp forests have declined by ~40% (<a href="#B89">Krumhansl et al., 2016</a>), and the biomass of large predatory fishes is now <33% of what it was last century (<a href="#B35">Christensen et al., 2014</a>).</p> <p class="mb0">With such a rapid, catastrophic loss of biodiversity, the ecosystem services it provides have also declined. These include <i>inter alia</i> reduced carbon sequestration (<a href="#B67">Heath et al., 2005</a>; <a href="#B91">Lal, 2008</a>), reduced pollination (<a href="#B114">Potts et al., 2016</a>), soil degradation (<a href="#B92">Lal, 2015</a>), poorer water and air quality (<a href="#B130">Smith et al., 2013</a>), more frequent and intense flooding (<a href="#B18">Bradshaw et al., 2007</a>; <a href="#B72">Hinkel et al., 2014</a>) and fires (<a href="#B12">Boer et al., 2020</a>; <a href="#B13">Bowman et al., 2020</a>), and compromised human health (<a href="#B48">Díaz et al., 2006</a>; <a href="#B17">Bradshaw et al., 2019</a>). As telling indicators of how much biomass humanity has transferred from natural ecosystems to our own use, of the estimated 0.17 Gt of living biomass of terrestrial vertebrates on Earth today, most is represented by livestock (59%) and human beings (36%)—only ~5% of this total biomass is made up by wild mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians (<a href="#B8">Bar-On et al., 2018</a>). As of 2020, the overall material output of human endeavor exceeds the sum of all living biomass on Earth (<a href="#B54">Elhacham et al., 2020</a>).</p> <a id="h4" name="h4"></a><h2>Sixth Mass Extinction</h2> <p class="mb0">A mass extinction is defined as a loss of ~75% of all species on the planet over a geologically short interval—generally anything <3 million years (<a href="#B81">Jablonski et al., 1994</a>; <a href="#B7">Barnosky et al., 2011</a>). At least five major extinction events have occurred since the Cambrian (<a href="#B131">Sodhi et al., 2009</a>), the most recent of them 66 million years ago at the close of the Cretaceous period. The background rate of extinction since then has been 0.1 extinctions million species<sup>−1</sup> year<sup>−1</sup> (<a href="#B31">Ceballos et al., 2015</a>), while estimates of today's extinction rate are orders of magnitude greater (<a href="#B93">Lamkin and Miller, 2016</a>). Recorded vertebrate extinctions since the 16th century—the mere tip of the true extinction iceberg—give a rate of extinction of 1.3 species year<sup>−1</sup>, which is conservatively >15 times the background rate (<a href="#B31">Ceballos et al., 2015</a>). The IUCN estimates that some 20% of all species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades, which greatly exceeds the background rate. That we are already on the path of a sixth major extinction is now scientifically undeniable (<a href="#B7">Barnosky et al., 2011</a>; <a href="#B31">Ceballos et al., 2015</a>, <a href="#B32">2017</a>).</p> <a id="h5" name="h5"></a><h2>Ecological Overshoot: Population Size and Overconsumption</h2> <p class="mb15">The global human population has approximately doubled since 1970, reaching nearly 7.8 billion people today (<a href="https://www.prb.org">prb.org</a>). While some countries have stopped growing and even declined in size, world average fertility continues to be above replacement (2.3 children woman<sup>−1</sup>), with an average of 4.8 children woman<sup>−1</sup> in Sub-Saharan Africa and fertilities >4 children woman<sup>−1</sup> in many other countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Yemen, Timor-Leste). The 1.1 billion people today in Sub-Saharan Africa—a region expected to experience particularly harsh repercussions from climate change (<a href="#B126">Serdeczny et al., 2017</a>)—is projected to double over the next 30 years. By 2050, the world population will likely grow to ~9.9 billion (prb.org), with growth projected by many to continue until well into the next century (<a href="#B14">Bradshaw and Brook, 2014</a>; <a href="#B61">Gerland et al., 2014</a>), although more recent estimates predict a peak toward the end of this century (<a href="#B146">Vollset et al., 2020</a>).</p> <p class="mb15">Large population size and continued growth are implicated in many societal problems. The impact of population growth, combined with an imperfect distribution of resources, leads to massive food insecurity. By some estimates, 700–800 million people are starving and 1–2 billion are micronutrient-malnourished and unable to function fully, with prospects of many more food problems in the near future (<a href="#B51">Ehrlich and Harte, 2015a</a>,<a href="#B52">b</a>). Large populations and their continued growth are also drivers of soil degradation and biodiversity loss (<a href="#B113">Pimm et al., 2014</a>). More people means that more synthetic compounds and dangerous throw-away plastics (<a href="#B145">Vethaak and Leslie, 2016</a>) are manufactured, many of which add to the growing toxification of the Earth (<a href="#B40">Cribb, 2014</a>). It also increases chances of pandemics (<a href="#B44">Daily and Ehrlich, 1996b</a>) that fuel ever-more desperate hunts for scarce resources (<a href="#B87">Klare, 2012</a>). Population growth is also a factor in many social ills, from crowding and joblessness, to deteriorating infrastructure and bad governance (<a href="#B65">Harte, 2007</a>). There is mounting evidence that when populations are large and growing fast, they can be the sparks for both internal and international conflicts that lead to war (<a href="#B86">Klare, 2001</a>; <a href="#B137">Toon et al., 2007</a>). The multiple, interacting causes of civil war in particular are varied, including poverty, inequality, weak institutions, political grievance, ethnic divisions, and environmental stressors such as drought, deforestation, and land degradation (<a href="#B73">Homer-Dixon, 1991</a>, <a href="#B74">1999</a>; <a href="#B38">Collier and Hoeer, 1998</a>; <a href="#B66">Hauge and llingsen, 1998</a>; <a href="#B56">Fearon and Laitin, 2003</a>; <a href="#B23">Brückner, 2010</a>; <a href="#B1">Acemoglu et al., 2017</a>). Population growth itself can even increase the probability of military involvement in conflicts (<a href="#B136">Tir and Diehl, 1998</a>). Countries with higher population growth rates experienced more social conflict since the Second World War (<a href="#B1">Acemoglu et al., 2017</a>). In that study, an approximate doubling of a country's population caused about four additional years of full-blown civil war or low-intensity conflict in the 1980s relative to the 1940–1950s, even after controlling for a country's income-level, independence, and age structure.</p> <p class="mb15">Simultaneous with population growth, humanity's consumption as a fraction of Earth's regenerative capacity has grown from ~ 73% in 1960 to 170% in 2016 (<a href="#B98">Lin et al., 2018</a>), with substantially greater per-person consumption in countries with highest income. With COVID-19, this overshoot dropped to 56% above Earth's regenerative capacity, which means that between January and August 2020, humanity consumed as much as Earth can renew in the entire year (overshootday.org). While inequality among people and countries remains staggering, the global middle class has grown rapidly and exceeded half the human population by 2018 (<a href="#B84">Kharas and Hamel, 2018</a>). Over 70% of all people currently live in countries that run a biocapacity deficit while also having less than world-average income, excluding them from compensating their biocapacity deficit through purchases (<a href="#B148">Wackernagel et al., 2019</a>) and eroding future resilience via reduced food security (<a href="#B52">Ehrlich and Harte, 2015b</a>). The consumption rates of high-income countries continue to be substantially higher than low-income countries, with many of the latter even experiencing declines in per-capita footprint (<a href="#B45">Dasgupta and Ehrlich, 2013</a>; <a href="#B148">Wackernagel et al., 2019</a>).</p> <p class="mb15">This massive ecological overshoot is largely enabled by the increasing use of fossil fuels. These convenient fuels have allowed us to decouple human demand from biological regeneration: 85% of commercial energy, 65% of fibers, and most plastics are now produced from fossil fuels. Also, food production depends on fossil-fuel input, with every unit of food energy produced requiring a multiple in fossil-fuel energy (e.g., 3 × for high-consuming countries like Canada, Australia, USA, and China; overshootday.org). This, coupled with increasing consumption of carbon-intensive meat (<a href="#B117">Ripple et al., 2014</a>) congruent with the rising middle class, has exploded the global carbon footprint of agriculture. While climate change demands a full exit from fossil-fuel use well before 2050, pressures on the biosphere are likely to mount prior to decarbonization as humanity brings energy alternatives online. Consumption and biodiversity challenges will also be amplified by the enormous physical inertia of all large “stocks” that shape current trends: built infrastructure, energy systems, and human populations.</p> <p class="mb0">It is therefore also inevitable that aggregate consumption will increase at least into the near future, especially as affluence and population continue to grow in tandem (<a href="#B154">Wiedmann et al., 2020</a>). Even if major catastrophes occur during this interval, they would unlikely affect the population trajectory until well into the 22nd Century (<a href="#B14">Bradshaw and Brook, 2014</a>). Although population-connected climate change (<a href="#B157">Wynes and Nicholas, 2017</a>) will worsen human mortality (<a href="#B103">Mora et al., 2017</a>; <a href="#B109">Parks et al., 2020</a>), morbidity (<a href="#B110">Patz et al., 2005</a>; <a href="#B48">Díaz et al., 2006</a>; <a href="#B111">Peng et al., 2011</a>), development (<a href="#B9">Barreca and Schaller, 2020</a>), cognition (<a href="#B82">Jacobson et al., 2019</a>), agricultural yields (<a href="#B144">Verdin et al., 2005</a>; <a href="#B123">Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007</a>; <a href="#B21">Brown and Funk, 2008</a>; <a href="#B60">Gaupp et al., 2020</a>), and conflicts (<a href="#B10">Boas, 2015</a>), there is no way—ethically or otherwise (barring extreme and unprecedented increases in human mortality)—to avoid rising human numbers and the accompanying overconsumption. That said, instituting human-rights policies to lower fertility and reining in consumption patterns could diminish the impacts of these phenomena (<a href="#B116">Rees, 2020</a>).</p> <a id="h6" name="h6"></a><h2>Failed International Goals and Prospects for the Future</h2> <p class="mb15">Stopping biodiversity loss is nowhere close to the top of any country's priorities, trailing far behind other concerns such as employment, healthcare, economic growth, or currency stability. It is therefore no surprise that none of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets for 2020 set at the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD.int) 2010 conference was met (<a href="#B124">Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2020</a>). Even had they been met, they would have still fallen short of realizing any substantive reductions in extinction rate. More broadly, most of the nature-related United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (e.g., SDGs 6, 13–15) are also on track for failure (<a href="#B147">Wackernagel et al., 2017</a>; <a href="#B49">Díaz et al., 2019</a>; <a href="#B102">Messerli et al., 2019</a>), largely because most SDGs have not adequately incorporated their interdependencies with other socio-economic factors (<a href="#B15">Bradshaw and Di Minin, 2019</a>; <a href="#B17">Bradshaw et al., 2019</a>; <a href="#B102">Messerli et al., 2019</a>). Therefore, the apparent paradox of high and rising average standard of living despite a mounting environmental toll has come at a great cost to the stability of humanity's medium- and long-term life-support system. In other words, humanity is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in which society robs nature and future generations to pay for boosting incomes in the short term (<a href="#B53">Ehrlich et al., 2012</a>). Even the World Economic Forum, which is captive of dangerous greenwashing propaganda (<a href="#B6">Bakan, 2020</a>), now recognizes biodiversity loss as one of the top threats to the global economy (<a href="#B155">World Economic Forum, 2020</a>).</p> <p class="mb0">The emergence of a long-predicted pandemic (<a href="#B43">Daily and Ehrlich, 1996a</a>), likely related to biodiversity loss, poignantly exemplifies how that imbalance is degrading both human health and wealth (<a href="#B5">Austin, 2020</a>; <a href="#B50">Dobson et al., 2020</a>; <a href="#B120">Roe et al., 2020</a>). With three-quarters of new infectious diseases resulting from human-animal interactions, environmental degradation via climate change, deforestation, intensive farming, bushmeat hunting, and an exploding wildlife trade mean that the opportunities for pathogen-transferring interactions are high (<a href="#B5">Austin, 2020</a>; <a href="#B46">Daszak et al., 2020</a>). That much of this degradation is occurring in Biodiversity Hotspots where pathogen diversity is also highest (<a href="#B83">Keesing et al., 2010</a>), but where institutional capacity is weakest, further increases the risk of pathogen release and spread (<a href="#B5">Austin, 2020</a>; <a href="#B122">Schmeller et al., 2020</a>).</p> <a id="h7" name="h7"></a><h2>Climate Disruption</h2> <p class="mb15">The dangerous effects of climate change are much more evident to people than those of biodiversity loss (<a href="#B94">Legagneux et al., 2018</a>), but society is still finding it difficult to deal with them effectively. Civilization has already exceeded a global warming of ~ 1.0°C above pre-industrial conditions, and is on track to cause at least a 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2052 (<a href="#B80">IPCC, 2018</a>). In fact, today's greenhouse-gas concentration is >500 ppm CO<sub>2</sub>-e (<a href="#B28">Butler and Montzka, 2020</a>), while according to the IPCC, 450 ppm CO<sub>2</sub>-e would give Earth a mere 66% chance of not exceeding a 2°C warming (<a href="#B79">IPCC, 2014</a>). Greenhouse-gas concentration will continue to increase (via positive feedbacks such as melting permafrost and the release of stored methane) (<a href="#B26">Burke et al., 2018</a>), resulting in further delay of temperature-reducing responses even if humanity stops using fossil fuels entirely well before 2030 (<a href="#B132">Steffen et al., 2018</a>).</p> <p class="mb15">Human alteration of the climate has become globally detectable in any single day's weather (<a href="#B128">Sippel et al., 2020</a>). In fact, the world's climate has matched or exceeded previous predictions (<a href="#B24">Brysse et al., 2013</a>), possibly because of the IPCC's reliance on averages from several models (<a href="#B69">Herger et al., 2018</a>) and the language of political conservativeness inherent in policy recommendations seeking multinational consensus (<a href="#B70">Herrando-Pérez et al., 2019</a>). However, the latest climate models (CMIP6) show greater future warming than previously predicted (<a href="#B57">Forster et al., 2020</a>), even if society tracks the needed lower-emissions pathway over the coming decades. Nations have in general not met the goals of the 5 year-old Paris Agreement (<a href="#B138">United Nations, 2016</a>), and while global awareness and concern have risen, and scientists have proposed major transformative change (in energy production, pollution reduction, custodianship of nature, food production, economics, population policies, etc.), an effective international response has yet to emerge (<a href="#B118">Ripple et al., 2020</a>). Even assuming that all signatories do, in fact, manage to ratify their commitments (a doubtful prospect), expected warming would still reach 2.6–3.1°C by 2100 (<a href="#B121">Rogelj et al., 2016</a>) unless large, additional commitments are made and fulfilled. Without such commitments, the projected rise of Earth's temperature will be catastrophic for biodiversity (<a href="#B140">Urban, 2015</a>; <a href="#B132">Steffen et al., 2018</a>; <a href="#B133">Strona and Bradshaw, 2018</a>) and humanity (<a href="#B129">Smith et al., 2016</a>).</p> <p class="mb0">Regarding international climate-change accords, the Paris Agreement (<a href="#B138">United Nations, 2016</a>) set the 1.5–2°C target unanimously. But since then, progress to propose, let alone follow, (voluntary) “intended national determined contributions” for post-2020 climate action have been utterly inadequate.</p> <a id="h8" name="h8"></a><h2>Political Impotence</h2> <p class="mb15">If most of the world's population truly understood and appreciated the magnitude of the crises we summarize here, and the inevitability of worsening conditions, one could logically expect positive changes in politics and policies to match the gravity of the existential threats. But the opposite is unfolding. The rise of right-wing populist leaders is associated with anti-environment agendas as seen recently for example in Brazil (<a href="#B105">Nature, 2018</a>), the USA (<a href="#B68">Hejny, 2018</a>), and Australia (<a href="#B25">Burck et al., 2019</a>). Large differences in income, wealth, and consumption among people and even among countries render it difficult to make any policy global in its execution or effect.</p> <p class="mb15">A central concept in ecology is <i>density feedback</i> (<a href="#B71">Herrando-Pérez et al., 2012</a>)—as a population approaches its environmental carrying capacity, average individual fitness declines (<a href="#B20">Brook and Bradshaw, 2006</a>). This tends to push populations toward an instantaneous expression of carrying capacity that slows or reverses population growth. But for most of history, human ingenuity has inflated the natural environment's carrying capacity for us by developing new ways to increase food production (<a href="#B75">Hopfenberg, 2003</a>), expand wildlife exploitation, and enhance the availability of other resources. This inflation has involved modifying temperature via shelter, clothing, and microclimate control, transporting goods from remote locations, and generally reducing the probability of death or injury through community infrastructure and services (<a href="#B37">Cohen, 1995</a>). But with the availability of fossil fuels, our species has pushed its consumption of nature's goods and services much farther beyond long-term carrying capacity (or more precisely, the planet's biocapacity), making the readjustment from overshoot that is inevitable far more catastrophic if not managed carefully (<a href="#B107">Nyström et al., 2019</a>). A growing human population will only exacerbate this, leading to greater competition for an ever-dwindling resource pool. The corollaries are many: continued reduction of environmental intactness (<a href="#B16">Bradshaw et al., 2010</a>; <a href="#B15">Bradshaw and Di Minin, 2019</a>), reduced child health (especially in low-income nations) (<a href="#B17">Bradshaw et al., 2019</a>), increased food demand exacerbating environmental degradation via agro-intensification (<a href="#B41">Crist et al., 2017</a>), vaster and possibly catastrophic effects of global toxification (<a href="#B40">Cribb, 2014</a>; <a href="#B134">Swan and Colino, 2021</a>), greater expression of social pathologies (<a href="#B97">Levy and Herzog, 1974</a>) including violence exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation itself (<a href="#B2">Agnew, 2013</a>; <a href="#B152">White, 2017</a>, <a href="#B153">2019</a>), more terrorism (<a href="#B36">Coccia, 2018</a>), and an economic system even more prone to sequester the remaining wealth among fewer individuals (<a href="#B90">Kus, 2016</a>; <a href="#B112">Piketty, 2020</a>) much like how cropland expansion since the early 1990s has disproportionately concentrated wealth among the super-rich (<a href="#B34">Ceddia, 2020</a>). The predominant paradigm is still one of pegging “environment” against “economy”; yet in reality, the choice is between exiting overshoot by design or disaster—because exiting overshoot is inevitable one way or another.</p> <p class="mb15">Given these misconceptions and entrenched interests, the continued rise of extreme ideologies is likely, which in turn limits the capacity of making prudent, long-term decisions, thus potentially accelerating a vicious cycle of global ecological deterioration and its penalties. Even the USA's much-touted New Green Deal (<a href="#B141">U. S. House of Representatives, 2019</a>) has in fact exacerbated the country's political polarization (<a href="#B63">Gustafson et al., 2019</a>), mainly because of the weaponization of ‘environmentalism' as a political ideology rather than being viewed as a universal mode of self-preservation and planetary protection that ought to transcend political tribalism. Indeed, environmental protest groups are being labeled as “terrorists” in many countries (<a href="#B76">Hudson, 2020</a>). Further, the severity of the commitments required for any country to achieve meaningful reductions in consumption and emissions will inevitably lead to public backlash and further ideological entrenchments, mainly because the threat of potential short-term sacrifices is seen as politically inopportune. Even though climate change alone will incur a vast economic burden (<a href="#B27">Burke et al., 2015</a>; <a href="#B29">Carleton and Hsiang, 2016</a>; <a href="#B4">Auffhammer, 2018</a>) possibly leading to war (nuclear, or otherwise) at a global scale (<a href="#B88">Klare, 2020</a>), most of the world's economies are predicated on the political idea that meaningful counteraction now is too costly to be politically palatable. Combined with financed disinformation campaigns in a bid to protect short-term profits (<a href="#B108">Oreskes and Conway, 2010</a>; <a href="#B100">Mayer, 2016</a>; <a href="#B6">Bakan, 2020</a>), it is doubtful that any needed shift in economic investments of sufficient scale will be made in time.</p> <p class="mb0">While uncertain and prone to fluctuate according to unpredictable social and policy trends (<a href="#B11">Boas et al., 2019</a>; <a href="#B101">McLeman, 2019</a>; <a href="#B106">Nature Climate Change, 2019</a>), climate change and other environmental pressures will trigger more mass migration over the coming decades (<a href="#B101">McLeman, 2019</a>), with an estimated 25 million to 1 billion environmental migrants expected by 2050 (<a href="#B22">Brown, 2008</a>). Because international law does not yet legally recognize such “environmental migrants” as refugees (<a href="#B139">United Nations University, 2015</a>) (although this is likely to change) (<a href="#B99">Lyons, 2020</a>), we fear that a rising tide of refugees will reduce, not increase, international cooperation in ways that will further weaken our capacity to mitigate the crisis.</p> <a id="h9" name="h9"></a><h2>Changing the Rules of the Game</h2> <p class="mb0">While it is neither our intention nor capacity in this short <i>Perspective</i> to delve into the complexities and details of possible solutions to the human predicament, there is no shortage of evidence-based literature proposing ways to change human behavior for the benefit of all extant life. The remaining questions are less about <i>what</i> to do, and more about <i>how</i>, stimulating the genesis of many organizations devoted to these pursuits (e.g., ipbes.org, goodanthropocenes.net, overshootday.org, mahb.stanford.edu, populationmatters.org, clubofrome.org, steadystate.org, to name a few). The gravity of the situation requires fundamental changes to global capitalism, education, and equality, which include <i>inter alia</i> the abolition of perpetual economic growth, properly pricing externalities, a rapid exit from fossil-fuel use, strict regulation of markets and property acquisition, reigning in corporate lobbying, and the empowerment of women. These choices will necessarily entail difficult conversations about population growth and the necessity of dwindling but more equitable standards of living.</p> <a id="h10" name="h10"></a><h2>Conclusions</h2> <p class="mb0">We have summarized predictions of a ghastly future of mass extinction, declining health, and climate-disruption upheavals (including looming massive migrations) and resource conflicts this century. Yet, our goal is not to present a fatalist perspective, because there are many examples of successful interventions to prevent extinctions, restore ecosystems, and encourage more sustainable economic activity at both local and regional scales. Instead, we contend that only a realistic appreciation of the colossal challenges facing the international community might allow it to chart a less-ravaged future. While there have been more recent calls for the scientific community in particular to be more vocal about their warnings to humanity (<a href="#B119">Ripple et al., 2017</a>; <a href="#B30">Cavicchioli et al., 2019</a>; <a href="#B59">Gardner and Wordley, 2019</a>), these have been insufficiently foreboding to match the scale of the crisis. Given the existence of a human “optimism bias” that triggers some to underestimate the severity of a crisis and ignore expert warnings, a good communication strategy must ideally undercut this bias without inducing disproportionate feelings of fear and despair (<a href="#B115">Pyke, 2017</a>; <a href="#B142">Van Bavel et al., 2020</a>). It is therefore incumbent on experts in any discipline that deals with the future of the biosphere and human well-being to eschew reticence, avoid sugar-coating the overwhelming challenges ahead and “tell it like it is.” Anything else is misleading at best, or negligent and potentially lethal for the human enterprise at worst.</p> <a id="h11" name="h11"></a><h2>Data Availability Statement</h2> <p class="mb0">The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author/s.</p> <a id="h12" name="h12"></a><h2>Author Contributions</h2> <p class="mb0">CJAB, DTB, and PRE designed the concept and wrote the article, with contributions from AB, GC, EC, JD, RD, AHE, JH, MEH, GP, PHR, WJR, FS, CT, and MW. CJAB prepared the figure. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.</p> <a id="h13" name="h13"></a><h2>Funding</h2> <p class="mb0">We thank the Rockefeller Foundation for Bellagio Writer's Fellowships to CJAB and PRE. Supported in part by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CE170100015).</p> <a id="h14" name="h14"></a><h2>Conflict of Interest</h2> <p class="mb0">The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p> <a id="h15" name="h15"></a><h2>References</h2> <div class="References"> <p class="ReferencesCopy1"><a name="B1" id="B1"></a> Acemoglu, D., Fergusson, L., and Johnson, S. 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Sci.</i> 1:615419. doi: 10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419</p> <p id="timestamps"><span>Received:</span> 09 October 2020; <span>Accepted:</span> 21 December 2020;<br> <span>Published:</span> 13 January 2021.</p> <div><p>Edited by:</p> <a href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1028262/overview">Dale Nimmo</a>, Charles Sturt University, Australia</div> <div><p>Reviewed by:</p> <a href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/748169/overview">Tanya Wyatt</a>, Northumbria University, United Kingdom<br> <a href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1146851/overview">Magnus Nyström</a>, Stockholm University, Sweden</div> <p><span>Copyright</span> © 2021 Bradshaw, Ehrlich, Beattie, Ceballos, Crist, Diamond, Dirzo, Ehrlich, Harte, Harte, Pyke, Raven, Ripple, Saltré, Turnbull, Wackernagel and Blumstein. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)</a>. The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p> <p><span>*Correspondence:</span> Corey J. A. Bradshaw, <a id="encmail">Y29yZXkuYnJhZHNoYXdAZmxpbmRlcnMuZWR1LmF1</a>; Paul R. Ehrlich, <a id="encmail">cHJlQHN0YW5mb3JkLmVkdQ==</a>; Daniel T. Blumstein, <a id="encmail">bWFybW90c0B1Y2xhLmVkdQ==</a></p> <div class="clear"></div> </div></div></div> <p class="AbstractSummary__disclaimer"><span>Disclaimer: </span> All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. 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class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo"><figure class="Avatar Avatar--size-32"><img src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1028262/32" alt="Dale Nimmo" class="Avatar__img is-inside-mask"></figure> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__info"><div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__name notranslate"> Dale Nimmo </div> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__affiliation notranslate"> Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Australia </div></div></a></div></div> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors"><div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__editors"><div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__title">Reviewed by</div> <a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/748169/overview" data-event="editorInfo-a-tanyaWyatt" class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo"><figure class="Avatar Avatar--size-32"><img src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/748169/32" alt="Tanya Wyatt" class="Avatar__img is-inside-mask"></figure> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__info"><div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__name notranslate"> Tanya Wyatt </div> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__affiliation notranslate"> Northumbria University, United Kingdom </div></div></a><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1146851/overview" data-event="editorInfo-a-magnusNyström" class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo"><figure class="Avatar Avatar--size-32"><img src="https://loop.frontiersin.org/images/profile/1146851/32" alt="Magnus Nyström" class="Avatar__img is-inside-mask"></figure> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__info"><div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__name notranslate"> Magnus Nyström </div> <div class="ArticleDetailsEditors__ediorInfo__affiliation notranslate"> Stockholm Resilience Centre, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University, Sweden </div></div></a></div></div> <div class="ArticleDetailsGlossary ArticleDetailsGlossary--open"><button class="ArticleDetailsGlossary__header"><div class="ArticleDetailsGlossary__header__title">Table of contents</div> <div class="ArticleDetailsGlossary__header__arrow"></div></button> <div class="ArticleDetailsGlossary__content"><ul class="flyoutJournal"> <li><a href="#h1">Abstract</a></li> <li><a href="#h2">Introduction</a></li> <li><a href="#h3">Biodiversity Loss</a></li> <li><a href="#h4">Sixth Mass Extinction</a></li> <li><a href="#h5">Ecological Overshoot: Population Size and Overconsumption</a></li> <li><a href="#h6">Failed International Goals and Prospects for the Future</a></li> <li><a href="#h7">Climate Disruption</a></li> <li><a href="#h8">Political Impotence</a></li> <li><a href="#h9">Changing the Rules of the Game</a></li> <li><a href="#h10">Conclusions</a></li> <li><a href="#h11">Data Availability Statement</a></li> <li><a href="#h12">Author Contributions</a></li> <li><a href="#h13">Funding</a></li> <li><a href="#h14">Conflict of Interest</a></li> <li><a href="#h15">References</a></li> </ul></div></div>  <div class="ActionsDropDown"><button aria-label="Open dropdown" data-event="actionsDropDown-button-toggle" class="ActionsDropDown__button ActionsDropDown__button--typeOutline ActionsDropDown__button--iconQuote"><span class="ActionsDropDown__button__label">Export citation</span></button> <div class="ActionsDropDown__menuWrapper"> <ul class="ActionsDropDown__menu"><li><a href="/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/endNote" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-event="actionsDropDown-a-endNote" class="ActionsDropDown__option"> EndNote </a></li><li><a href="/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/reference" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-event="actionsDropDown-a-referenceManager" class="ActionsDropDown__option"> Reference Manager </a></li><li><a href="/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/text" target="_blank" rel="noopener 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México",countryName:"Mexico",cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:ar,firstName:as,lastName:"Crist",givenNames:as,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:ar,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Department of Science, Technology, and Society, Virginia Tech",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:l,firstName:at,lastName:"Diamond",givenNames:at,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:i,userId:l,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Department of Biology, Stanford University",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:au,firstName:av,lastName:"Dirzo",givenNames:av,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:au,affiliations:[{organizationName:N,countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aw,firstName:ax,lastName:an,givenNames:ax,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aw,affiliations:[{organizationName:N,countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:ay,firstName:az,lastName:aA,givenNames:az,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:ay,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e},{organizationName:aB,countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aC,firstName:aD,lastName:aA,givenNames:aD,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aC,affiliations:[{organizationName:aB,countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:l,firstName:aE,lastName:"Pyke",givenNames:aE,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:i,userId:l,affiliations:[{organizationName:O,countryName:q,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:l,firstName:aF,lastName:"Raven",givenNames:aF,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:i,userId:l,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Missouri Botanical Garden",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:l,firstName:aG,lastName:"Ripple",givenNames:aG,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:i,userId:l,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aH,firstName:aI,lastName:"Saltré",givenNames:aI,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aH,affiliations:[{organizationName:aj,countryName:q,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e},{organizationName:ak,countryName:q,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aJ,firstName:aK,lastName:"Turnbull",givenNames:aK,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aJ,affiliations:[{organizationName:O,countryName:q,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aL,firstName:aM,lastName:"Wackernagel",givenNames:aM,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aL,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Global Footprint Network",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aN,firstName:aO,lastName:"Blumstein",givenNames:aO,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aN,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e},{organizationName:"La Kretz Hall, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles",countryName:p,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]}],editors:[{id:aP,firstName:aQ,lastName:"Nimmo",givenNames:aQ,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aP,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University",countryName:q,cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]}],reviewers:[{id:aR,firstName:aS,lastName:"Wyatt",givenNames:aS,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aR,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Northumbria University",countryName:"United Kingdom",cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]},{id:aT,firstName:aU,lastName:"Nyström",givenNames:aU,isCorresponding:i,isProfilePublic:h,userId:aT,affiliations:[{organizationName:"Stockholm Resilience Centre, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University",countryName:"Sweden",cityName:e,stateName:e,zipCode:e}]}],journal:{id:u,slug:v,name:r,shortName:I,electronicISSN:J,field:{id:ab,domainId:c,__typename:ac},specialtyId:f,journalSectionPaths:[{section:aV,__typename:"journal_journalSectionPath"}],__typename:a},section:aV,impactMetrics:{views:432476,downloads:32275,citations:398},volume:c,articleVolume:"Volume 1 - 2020",relatedArticles:[{id:666910,typeId:29,typeName:"General Commentary",title:"Commentary: Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future",url:"\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffcosc.2021.666910",isOriginalArticle:i,recentDate:"2021-05-13T00:00:00.000Z"}],isPublishedV2:i,contents:{titleHtml:L,fullTextHtml:"\u003Cdiv class=\"JournalAbstract\"\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h1\" name=\"h1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"authors\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1013784\" class=\"user-id-1013784\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1013784\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"\\nCorey J. A. Bradshaw,
\"\u003ECorey J. A. Bradshaw\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Csup\u003E*\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1184027\" class=\"user-id-1184027\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1184027\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Paul R. Ehrlich
\"\u003EPaul R. Ehrlich\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Csup\u003E*\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1178264\" class=\"user-id-1178264\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1178264\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Andrew Beattie\"\u003EAndrew Beattie\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg\" alt=\"Gerardo Ceballos\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\"\u003EGerardo Ceballos\u003Csup\u003E5\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1184092\" class=\"user-id-1184092\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1184092\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Eileen Crist\"\u003EEileen Crist\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E6\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg\" alt=\"Joan Diamond\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\"\u003EJoan Diamond\u003Csup\u003E7\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F373555\" class=\"user-id-373555\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F373555\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Rodolfo Dirzo\"\u003ERodolfo Dirzo\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1184208\" class=\"user-id-1184208\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1184208\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Anne H. Ehrlich\"\u003EAnne H. Ehrlich\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F265517\" class=\"user-id-265517\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F265517\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"John Harte,\"\u003EJohn Harte\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E8,9\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1184159\" class=\"user-id-1184159\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1184159\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Mary Ellen Harte\"\u003EMary Ellen Harte\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E9\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg\" alt=\"Graham Pyke\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\"\u003EGraham Pyke\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg\" alt=\"Peter H. Raven\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\"\u003EPeter H. Raven\u003Csup\u003E10\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg\" alt=\"William J. Ripple\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\"\u003EWilliam J. Ripple\u003Csup\u003E11\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F751533\" class=\"user-id-751533\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F751533\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Frdrik Saltr,\"\u003EFrédérik Saltré\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1184162\" class=\"user-id-1184162\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F1184162\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Christine Turnbull\"\u003EChristine Turnbull\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F432076\" class=\"user-id-432076\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F432076\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Mathis Wackernagel\"\u003EMathis Wackernagel\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E12\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"author-wrapper notranslate\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F15398\" class=\"user-id-15398\"\u003E\u003Cimg class=\"pr5\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002F15398\u002F74\" onerror=\"this.onerror=null;this.src='https:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fcdn\u002Fimages\u002Fprofile\u002Fdefault_32.jpg';\" alt=\"Daniel T. Blumstein,
\"\u003EDaniel T. Blumstein\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Csup\u003E13,14\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Csup\u003E*\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cul class=\"notes\"\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EGlobal Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, \u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fepicaustralia.org.au\u002F\"\u003EEpicAustralia.org\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, Adelaide, SA, Australia\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EDepartment of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E5\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EInstituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E6\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EDepartment of Science, Technology, and Society, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E7\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EMillennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E8\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EEnergy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E9\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EThe Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E10\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EMissouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E11\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EDepartment of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E12\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EGlobal Footprint Network, Oakland, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E13\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003EDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Csup\u003E14\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003ELa Kretz Hall, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003C\u002Ful\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EWe report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists to speak out candidly and accurately when engaging with government, business, and the public. We especially draw attention to the lack of appreciation of the enormous challenges to creating a sustainable future. The added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of ecosystem services on which society depends. The science underlying these issues is strong, but awareness is weak. Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"clear\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"JournalFullText\"\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h2\" name=\"h2\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EIntroduction\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EHumanity is causing a rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth's ability to support complex life. But the mainstream is having difficulty grasping the magnitude of this loss, despite the steady erosion of the fabric of human civilization (\u003Ca href=\"#B31\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B78\"\u003EIPBES, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B39\"\u003EConvention on Biological Diversity, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B156\"\u003EWWF, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). While suggested solutions abound (\u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), the current scale of their implementation does not match the relentless progression of biodiversity loss (\u003Ca href=\"#B42\"\u003ECumming et al., 2006\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and other existential threats tied to the continuous expansion of the human enterprise (\u003Ca href=\"#B116\"\u003ERees, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Time delays between ecological deterioration and socio-economic penalties, as with climate disruption for example (\u003Ca href=\"#B79\"\u003EIPCC, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), impede recognition of the magnitude of the challenge and timely counteraction needed. In addition, disciplinary specialization and insularity encourage unfamiliarity with the complex adaptive systems (\u003Ca href=\"#B96\"\u003ELevin, 1999\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) in which problems and their potential solutions are embedded (\u003Ca href=\"#B125\"\u003ESelby, 2006\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B19\"\u003EBrand and Karvonen, 2007\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Widespread ignorance of human behavior (\u003Ca href=\"#B142\"\u003EVan Bavel et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and the incremental nature of socio-political processes that plan and implement solutions further delay effective action (\u003Ca href=\"#B127\"\u003EShanley and López, 2009\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B85\"\u003EKing, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWe summarize the state of the natural world in stark form here to help clarify the gravity of the human predicament. We also outline likely future trends in biodiversity decline (\u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), climate disruption (\u003Ca href=\"#B118\"\u003ERipple et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and human consumption and population growth to demonstrate the near certainty that these problems will worsen over the coming decades, with negative impacts for centuries to come. Finally, we discuss the ineffectiveness of current and planned actions that are attempting to address the ominous erosion of Earth's life-support system. Ours is not a call to surrender—we aim to provide leaders with a realistic “cold shower” of the state of the planet that is essential for planning to avoid a ghastly future.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h3\" name=\"h3\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EBiodiversity Loss\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EMajor changes in the biosphere are directly linked to the growth of human systems (summarized in \u003Ca href=\"#F1\"\u003EFigure 1\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). While the rapid loss of species and populations differs regionally in intensity (\u003Ca href=\"#B31\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"#B32\"\u003E2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"#B33\"\u003E2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and most species have not been adequately assessed for extinction risk (\u003Ca href=\"#B151\"\u003EWebb and Mindel, 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), certain global trends are obvious. Since the start of agriculture around 11,000 years ago, the biomass of terrestrial vegetation has been halved (\u003Ca href=\"#B55\"\u003EErb et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), with a corresponding loss of >20% of its original biodiversity (\u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), together denoting that >70% of the Earth's land surface has been altered by \u003Ci\u003EHomo sapiens\u003C\u002Fi\u003E (\u003Ca href=\"#B78\"\u003EIPBES, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). There have been >700 documented vertebrate (\u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and ~600 plant (\u003Ca href=\"#B77\"\u003EHumphreys et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) species extinctions over the past 500 years, with many more species clearly having gone extinct unrecorded (\u003Ca href=\"#B135\"\u003ETedesco et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Population sizes of vertebrate species that have been monitored across years have declined by an average of 68% over the last five decades (\u003Ca href=\"#B156\"\u003EWWF, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), with certain population clusters in extreme decline (\u003Ca href=\"#B95\"\u003ELeung et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), thus presaging the imminent extinction of their species (\u003Ca href=\"#B33\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Overall, perhaps 1 million species are threatened with extinction in the near future out of an estimated 7–10 million eukaryotic species on the planet (\u003Ca href=\"#B104\"\u003EMora et al., 2011\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), with around 40% of plants alone considered endangered (\u003Ca href=\"#B3\"\u003EAntonelli et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Today, the global biomass of wild mammals is <25% of that estimated for the Late Pleistocene (\u003Ca href=\"#B8\"\u003EBar-On et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), while insects are also disappearing rapidly in many regions (\u003Ca href=\"#B149\"\u003EWagner, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; reviews in \u003Ca href=\"#B143\"\u003Evan Klink et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"DottedLine\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"Imageheaders\"\u003EFIGURE 1\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"FigureDesc\"\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" name=\"figure1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\n\n \u003Cpicture\u003E\n \u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages-provider.frontiersin.org\u002Fapi\u002Fipx\u002Fw=480&f=webp\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 563px)\"\u003E\u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages-provider.frontiersin.org\u002Fapi\u002Fipx\u002Fw=370&f=webp\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 1024px)\"\u003E\u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages-provider.frontiersin.org\u002Fapi\u002Fipx\u002Fw=290&f=webp\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 1441px)\"\u003E\u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages-provider.frontiersin.org\u002Fapi\u002Fipx\u002Fw=410&f=webp\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" media=\"\"\u003E\u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fjpg\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" media=\"\"\u003E \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg\" alt=\"www.frontiersin.org\" id=\"F1\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fpicture\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFigure 1\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E. Summary of major environmental-change categories expressed as a percentage change relative to the baseline given in the text. Red indicates the percentage of the category that is damaged, lost, or otherwise affected, whereas blue indicates the percentage that is intact, remaining, or otherwise unaffected. Superscript numbers indicate the following references: \u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B78\"\u003EIPBES, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B64\"\u003EHalpern et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B89\"\u003EKrumhansl et al., 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B150\"\u003EWaycott et al., 2009\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E5\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E6\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B35\"\u003EChristensen et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E7\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B58\"\u003EFrieler et al., 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E8\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B55\"\u003EErb et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E9\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B47\"\u003EDavidson, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E10\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B62\"\u003EGrill et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E11\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B156\"\u003EWWF, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E12\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B8\"\u003EBar-On et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E13\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B3\"\u003EAntonelli et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Csup\u003E14\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003Ca style=\"color:grey;\" href=\"#B104\"\u003EMora et al., 2011\u003C\u002Fa\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"clear\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"DottedLine\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15 w100pc float_left mt15\"\u003EFreshwater and marine environments have also been severely damaged. Today there is <15% of the original wetland area globally than was present 300 years ago (\u003Ca href=\"#B47\"\u003EDavidson, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and >75% of rivers >1,000 km long no longer flow freely along their entire course (\u003Ca href=\"#B62\"\u003EGrill et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). More than two-thirds of the oceans have been compromised to some extent by human activities (\u003Ca href=\"#B64\"\u003EHalpern et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), live coral cover on reefs has halved in <200 years (\u003Ca href=\"#B58\"\u003EFrieler et al., 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), seagrass extent has been decreasing by 10% per decade over the last century (\u003Ca href=\"#B150\"\u003EWaycott et al., 2009\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), kelp forests have declined by ~40% (\u003Ca href=\"#B89\"\u003EKrumhansl et al., 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and the biomass of large predatory fishes is now <33% of what it was last century (\u003Ca href=\"#B35\"\u003EChristensen et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWith such a rapid, catastrophic loss of biodiversity, the ecosystem services it provides have also declined. These include \u003Ci\u003Einter alia\u003C\u002Fi\u003E reduced carbon sequestration (\u003Ca href=\"#B67\"\u003EHeath et al., 2005\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B91\"\u003ELal, 2008\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), reduced pollination (\u003Ca href=\"#B114\"\u003EPotts et al., 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), soil degradation (\u003Ca href=\"#B92\"\u003ELal, 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), poorer water and air quality (\u003Ca href=\"#B130\"\u003ESmith et al., 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), more frequent and intense flooding (\u003Ca href=\"#B18\"\u003EBradshaw et al., 2007\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B72\"\u003EHinkel et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and fires (\u003Ca href=\"#B12\"\u003EBoer et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B13\"\u003EBowman et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and compromised human health (\u003Ca href=\"#B48\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2006\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B17\"\u003EBradshaw et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). As telling indicators of how much biomass humanity has transferred from natural ecosystems to our own use, of the estimated 0.17 Gt of living biomass of terrestrial vertebrates on Earth today, most is represented by livestock (59%) and human beings (36%)—only ~5% of this total biomass is made up by wild mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians (\u003Ca href=\"#B8\"\u003EBar-On et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). As of 2020, the overall material output of human endeavor exceeds the sum of all living biomass on Earth (\u003Ca href=\"#B54\"\u003EElhacham et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h4\" name=\"h4\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ESixth Mass Extinction\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EA mass extinction is defined as a loss of ~75% of all species on the planet over a geologically short interval—generally anything <3 million years (\u003Ca href=\"#B81\"\u003EJablonski et al., 1994\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B7\"\u003EBarnosky et al., 2011\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). At least five major extinction events have occurred since the Cambrian (\u003Ca href=\"#B131\"\u003ESodhi et al., 2009\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), the most recent of them 66 million years ago at the close of the Cretaceous period. The background rate of extinction since then has been 0.1 extinctions million species\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E year\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E (\u003Ca href=\"#B31\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), while estimates of today's extinction rate are orders of magnitude greater (\u003Ca href=\"#B93\"\u003ELamkin and Miller, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Recorded vertebrate extinctions since the 16th century—the mere tip of the true extinction iceberg—give a rate of extinction of 1.3 species year\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E, which is conservatively >15 times the background rate (\u003Ca href=\"#B31\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). The IUCN estimates that some 20% of all species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades, which greatly exceeds the background rate. That we are already on the path of a sixth major extinction is now scientifically undeniable (\u003Ca href=\"#B7\"\u003EBarnosky et al., 2011\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B31\"\u003ECeballos et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"#B32\"\u003E2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h5\" name=\"h5\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EEcological Overshoot: Population Size and Overconsumption\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EThe global human population has approximately doubled since 1970, reaching nearly 7.8 billion people today (\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.prb.org\"\u003Eprb.org\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). While some countries have stopped growing and even declined in size, world average fertility continues to be above replacement (2.3 children woman\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E), with an average of 4.8 children woman\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E in Sub-Saharan Africa and fertilities >4 children woman\u003Csup\u003E−1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E in many other countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Yemen, Timor-Leste). The 1.1 billion people today in Sub-Saharan Africa—a region expected to experience particularly harsh repercussions from climate change (\u003Ca href=\"#B126\"\u003ESerdeczny et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E)—is projected to double over the next 30 years. By 2050, the world population will likely grow to ~9.9 billion (prb.org), with growth projected by many to continue until well into the next century (\u003Ca href=\"#B14\"\u003EBradshaw and Brook, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B61\"\u003EGerland et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), although more recent estimates predict a peak toward the end of this century (\u003Ca href=\"#B146\"\u003EVollset et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003ELarge population size and continued growth are implicated in many societal problems. The impact of population growth, combined with an imperfect distribution of resources, leads to massive food insecurity. By some estimates, 700–800 million people are starving and 1–2 billion are micronutrient-malnourished and unable to function fully, with prospects of many more food problems in the near future (\u003Ca href=\"#B51\"\u003EEhrlich and Harte, 2015a\u003C\u002Fa\u003E,\u003Ca href=\"#B52\"\u003Eb\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Large populations and their continued growth are also drivers of soil degradation and biodiversity loss (\u003Ca href=\"#B113\"\u003EPimm et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). More people means that more synthetic compounds and dangerous throw-away plastics (\u003Ca href=\"#B145\"\u003EVethaak and Leslie, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) are manufactured, many of which add to the growing toxification of the Earth (\u003Ca href=\"#B40\"\u003ECribb, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). It also increases chances of pandemics (\u003Ca href=\"#B44\"\u003EDaily and Ehrlich, 1996b\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) that fuel ever-more desperate hunts for scarce resources (\u003Ca href=\"#B87\"\u003EKlare, 2012\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Population growth is also a factor in many social ills, from crowding and joblessness, to deteriorating infrastructure and bad governance (\u003Ca href=\"#B65\"\u003EHarte, 2007\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). There is mounting evidence that when populations are large and growing fast, they can be the sparks for both internal and international conflicts that lead to war (\u003Ca href=\"#B86\"\u003EKlare, 2001\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B137\"\u003EToon et al., 2007\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). The multiple, interacting causes of civil war in particular are varied, including poverty, inequality, weak institutions, political grievance, ethnic divisions, and environmental stressors such as drought, deforestation, and land degradation (\u003Ca href=\"#B73\"\u003EHomer-Dixon, 1991\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"#B74\"\u003E1999\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B38\"\u003ECollier and Hoeer, 1998\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B66\"\u003EHauge and llingsen, 1998\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B56\"\u003EFearon and Laitin, 2003\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B23\"\u003EBrückner, 2010\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B1\"\u003EAcemoglu et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Population growth itself can even increase the probability of military involvement in conflicts (\u003Ca href=\"#B136\"\u003ETir and Diehl, 1998\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Countries with higher population growth rates experienced more social conflict since the Second World War (\u003Ca href=\"#B1\"\u003EAcemoglu et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). In that study, an approximate doubling of a country's population caused about four additional years of full-blown civil war or low-intensity conflict in the 1980s relative to the 1940–1950s, even after controlling for a country's income-level, independence, and age structure.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003ESimultaneous with population growth, humanity's consumption as a fraction of Earth's regenerative capacity has grown from ~ 73% in 1960 to 170% in 2016 (\u003Ca href=\"#B98\"\u003ELin et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), with substantially greater per-person consumption in countries with highest income. With COVID-19, this overshoot dropped to 56% above Earth's regenerative capacity, which means that between January and August 2020, humanity consumed as much as Earth can renew in the entire year (overshootday.org). While inequality among people and countries remains staggering, the global middle class has grown rapidly and exceeded half the human population by 2018 (\u003Ca href=\"#B84\"\u003EKharas and Hamel, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Over 70% of all people currently live in countries that run a biocapacity deficit while also having less than world-average income, excluding them from compensating their biocapacity deficit through purchases (\u003Ca href=\"#B148\"\u003EWackernagel et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and eroding future resilience via reduced food security (\u003Ca href=\"#B52\"\u003EEhrlich and Harte, 2015b\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). The consumption rates of high-income countries continue to be substantially higher than low-income countries, with many of the latter even experiencing declines in per-capita footprint (\u003Ca href=\"#B45\"\u003EDasgupta and Ehrlich, 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B148\"\u003EWackernagel et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EThis massive ecological overshoot is largely enabled by the increasing use of fossil fuels. These convenient fuels have allowed us to decouple human demand from biological regeneration: 85% of commercial energy, 65% of fibers, and most plastics are now produced from fossil fuels. Also, food production depends on fossil-fuel input, with every unit of food energy produced requiring a multiple in fossil-fuel energy (e.g., 3 × for high-consuming countries like Canada, Australia, USA, and China; overshootday.org). This, coupled with increasing consumption of carbon-intensive meat (\u003Ca href=\"#B117\"\u003ERipple et al., 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) congruent with the rising middle class, has exploded the global carbon footprint of agriculture. While climate change demands a full exit from fossil-fuel use well before 2050, pressures on the biosphere are likely to mount prior to decarbonization as humanity brings energy alternatives online. Consumption and biodiversity challenges will also be amplified by the enormous physical inertia of all large “stocks” that shape current trends: built infrastructure, energy systems, and human populations.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EIt is therefore also inevitable that aggregate consumption will increase at least into the near future, especially as affluence and population continue to grow in tandem (\u003Ca href=\"#B154\"\u003EWiedmann et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Even if major catastrophes occur during this interval, they would unlikely affect the population trajectory until well into the 22nd Century (\u003Ca href=\"#B14\"\u003EBradshaw and Brook, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Although population-connected climate change (\u003Ca href=\"#B157\"\u003EWynes and Nicholas, 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) will worsen human mortality (\u003Ca href=\"#B103\"\u003EMora et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B109\"\u003EParks et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), morbidity (\u003Ca href=\"#B110\"\u003EPatz et al., 2005\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B48\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2006\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B111\"\u003EPeng et al., 2011\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), development (\u003Ca href=\"#B9\"\u003EBarreca and Schaller, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), cognition (\u003Ca href=\"#B82\"\u003EJacobson et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), agricultural yields (\u003Ca href=\"#B144\"\u003EVerdin et al., 2005\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B123\"\u003ESchmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B21\"\u003EBrown and Funk, 2008\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B60\"\u003EGaupp et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and conflicts (\u003Ca href=\"#B10\"\u003EBoas, 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), there is no way—ethically or otherwise (barring extreme and unprecedented increases in human mortality)—to avoid rising human numbers and the accompanying overconsumption. That said, instituting human-rights policies to lower fertility and reining in consumption patterns could diminish the impacts of these phenomena (\u003Ca href=\"#B116\"\u003ERees, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h6\" name=\"h6\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFailed International Goals and Prospects for the Future\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EStopping biodiversity loss is nowhere close to the top of any country's priorities, trailing far behind other concerns such as employment, healthcare, economic growth, or currency stability. It is therefore no surprise that none of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets for 2020 set at the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD.int) 2010 conference was met (\u003Ca href=\"#B124\"\u003ESecretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Even had they been met, they would have still fallen short of realizing any substantive reductions in extinction rate. More broadly, most of the nature-related United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (e.g., SDGs 6, 13–15) are also on track for failure (\u003Ca href=\"#B147\"\u003EWackernagel et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B49\"\u003EDíaz et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B102\"\u003EMesserli et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), largely because most SDGs have not adequately incorporated their interdependencies with other socio-economic factors (\u003Ca href=\"#B15\"\u003EBradshaw and Di Minin, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B17\"\u003EBradshaw et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B102\"\u003EMesserli et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Therefore, the apparent paradox of high and rising average standard of living despite a mounting environmental toll has come at a great cost to the stability of humanity's medium- and long-term life-support system. In other words, humanity is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in which society robs nature and future generations to pay for boosting incomes in the short term (\u003Ca href=\"#B53\"\u003EEhrlich et al., 2012\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Even the World Economic Forum, which is captive of dangerous greenwashing propaganda (\u003Ca href=\"#B6\"\u003EBakan, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), now recognizes biodiversity loss as one of the top threats to the global economy (\u003Ca href=\"#B155\"\u003EWorld Economic Forum, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EThe emergence of a long-predicted pandemic (\u003Ca href=\"#B43\"\u003EDaily and Ehrlich, 1996a\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), likely related to biodiversity loss, poignantly exemplifies how that imbalance is degrading both human health and wealth (\u003Ca href=\"#B5\"\u003EAustin, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B50\"\u003EDobson et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B120\"\u003ERoe et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). With three-quarters of new infectious diseases resulting from human-animal interactions, environmental degradation via climate change, deforestation, intensive farming, bushmeat hunting, and an exploding wildlife trade mean that the opportunities for pathogen-transferring interactions are high (\u003Ca href=\"#B5\"\u003EAustin, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B46\"\u003EDaszak et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). That much of this degradation is occurring in Biodiversity Hotspots where pathogen diversity is also highest (\u003Ca href=\"#B83\"\u003EKeesing et al., 2010\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), but where institutional capacity is weakest, further increases the risk of pathogen release and spread (\u003Ca href=\"#B5\"\u003EAustin, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B122\"\u003ESchmeller et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h7\" name=\"h7\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EClimate Disruption\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EThe dangerous effects of climate change are much more evident to people than those of biodiversity loss (\u003Ca href=\"#B94\"\u003ELegagneux et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), but society is still finding it difficult to deal with them effectively. Civilization has already exceeded a global warming of ~ 1.0°C above pre-industrial conditions, and is on track to cause at least a 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2052 (\u003Ca href=\"#B80\"\u003EIPCC, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). In fact, today's greenhouse-gas concentration is >500 ppm CO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\u002Fsub\u003E-e (\u003Ca href=\"#B28\"\u003EButler and Montzka, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), while according to the IPCC, 450 ppm CO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\u002Fsub\u003E-e would give Earth a mere 66% chance of not exceeding a 2°C warming (\u003Ca href=\"#B79\"\u003EIPCC, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Greenhouse-gas concentration will continue to increase (via positive feedbacks such as melting permafrost and the release of stored methane) (\u003Ca href=\"#B26\"\u003EBurke et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), resulting in further delay of temperature-reducing responses even if humanity stops using fossil fuels entirely well before 2030 (\u003Ca href=\"#B132\"\u003ESteffen et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EHuman alteration of the climate has become globally detectable in any single day's weather (\u003Ca href=\"#B128\"\u003ESippel et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). In fact, the world's climate has matched or exceeded previous predictions (\u003Ca href=\"#B24\"\u003EBrysse et al., 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), possibly because of the IPCC's reliance on averages from several models (\u003Ca href=\"#B69\"\u003EHerger et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and the language of political conservativeness inherent in policy recommendations seeking multinational consensus (\u003Ca href=\"#B70\"\u003EHerrando-Pérez et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). However, the latest climate models (CMIP6) show greater future warming than previously predicted (\u003Ca href=\"#B57\"\u003EForster et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), even if society tracks the needed lower-emissions pathway over the coming decades. Nations have in general not met the goals of the 5 year-old Paris Agreement (\u003Ca href=\"#B138\"\u003EUnited Nations, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and while global awareness and concern have risen, and scientists have proposed major transformative change (in energy production, pollution reduction, custodianship of nature, food production, economics, population policies, etc.), an effective international response has yet to emerge (\u003Ca href=\"#B118\"\u003ERipple et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Even assuming that all signatories do, in fact, manage to ratify their commitments (a doubtful prospect), expected warming would still reach 2.6–3.1°C by 2100 (\u003Ca href=\"#B121\"\u003ERogelj et al., 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) unless large, additional commitments are made and fulfilled. Without such commitments, the projected rise of Earth's temperature will be catastrophic for biodiversity (\u003Ca href=\"#B140\"\u003EUrban, 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B132\"\u003ESteffen et al., 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B133\"\u003EStrona and Bradshaw, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) and humanity (\u003Ca href=\"#B129\"\u003ESmith et al., 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003ERegarding international climate-change accords, the Paris Agreement (\u003Ca href=\"#B138\"\u003EUnited Nations, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) set the 1.5–2°C target unanimously. But since then, progress to propose, let alone follow, (voluntary) “intended national determined contributions” for post-2020 climate action have been utterly inadequate.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h8\" name=\"h8\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EPolitical Impotence\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EIf most of the world's population truly understood and appreciated the magnitude of the crises we summarize here, and the inevitability of worsening conditions, one could logically expect positive changes in politics and policies to match the gravity of the existential threats. But the opposite is unfolding. The rise of right-wing populist leaders is associated with anti-environment agendas as seen recently for example in Brazil (\u003Ca href=\"#B105\"\u003ENature, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), the USA (\u003Ca href=\"#B68\"\u003EHejny, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and Australia (\u003Ca href=\"#B25\"\u003EBurck et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Large differences in income, wealth, and consumption among people and even among countries render it difficult to make any policy global in its execution or effect.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EA central concept in ecology is \u003Ci\u003Edensity feedback\u003C\u002Fi\u003E (\u003Ca href=\"#B71\"\u003EHerrando-Pérez et al., 2012\u003C\u002Fa\u003E)—as a population approaches its environmental carrying capacity, average individual fitness declines (\u003Ca href=\"#B20\"\u003EBrook and Bradshaw, 2006\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). This tends to push populations toward an instantaneous expression of carrying capacity that slows or reverses population growth. But for most of history, human ingenuity has inflated the natural environment's carrying capacity for us by developing new ways to increase food production (\u003Ca href=\"#B75\"\u003EHopfenberg, 2003\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), expand wildlife exploitation, and enhance the availability of other resources. This inflation has involved modifying temperature via shelter, clothing, and microclimate control, transporting goods from remote locations, and generally reducing the probability of death or injury through community infrastructure and services (\u003Ca href=\"#B37\"\u003ECohen, 1995\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). But with the availability of fossil fuels, our species has pushed its consumption of nature's goods and services much farther beyond long-term carrying capacity (or more precisely, the planet's biocapacity), making the readjustment from overshoot that is inevitable far more catastrophic if not managed carefully (\u003Ca href=\"#B107\"\u003ENyström et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). A growing human population will only exacerbate this, leading to greater competition for an ever-dwindling resource pool. The corollaries are many: continued reduction of environmental intactness (\u003Ca href=\"#B16\"\u003EBradshaw et al., 2010\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B15\"\u003EBradshaw and Di Minin, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), reduced child health (especially in low-income nations) (\u003Ca href=\"#B17\"\u003EBradshaw et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), increased food demand exacerbating environmental degradation via agro-intensification (\u003Ca href=\"#B41\"\u003ECrist et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), vaster and possibly catastrophic effects of global toxification (\u003Ca href=\"#B40\"\u003ECribb, 2014\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B134\"\u003ESwan and Colino, 2021\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), greater expression of social pathologies (\u003Ca href=\"#B97\"\u003ELevy and Herzog, 1974\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) including violence exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation itself (\u003Ca href=\"#B2\"\u003EAgnew, 2013\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B152\"\u003EWhite, 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"#B153\"\u003E2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), more terrorism (\u003Ca href=\"#B36\"\u003ECoccia, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), and an economic system even more prone to sequester the remaining wealth among fewer individuals (\u003Ca href=\"#B90\"\u003EKus, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B112\"\u003EPiketty, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) much like how cropland expansion since the early 1990s has disproportionately concentrated wealth among the super-rich (\u003Ca href=\"#B34\"\u003ECeddia, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). The predominant paradigm is still one of pegging “environment” against “economy”; yet in reality, the choice is between exiting overshoot by design or disaster—because exiting overshoot is inevitable one way or another.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb15\"\u003EGiven these misconceptions and entrenched interests, the continued rise of extreme ideologies is likely, which in turn limits the capacity of making prudent, long-term decisions, thus potentially accelerating a vicious cycle of global ecological deterioration and its penalties. Even the USA's much-touted New Green Deal (\u003Ca href=\"#B141\"\u003EU. S. House of Representatives, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) has in fact exacerbated the country's political polarization (\u003Ca href=\"#B63\"\u003EGustafson et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), mainly because of the weaponization of ‘environmentalism' as a political ideology rather than being viewed as a universal mode of self-preservation and planetary protection that ought to transcend political tribalism. Indeed, environmental protest groups are being labeled as “terrorists” in many countries (\u003Ca href=\"#B76\"\u003EHudson, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Further, the severity of the commitments required for any country to achieve meaningful reductions in consumption and emissions will inevitably lead to public backlash and further ideological entrenchments, mainly because the threat of potential short-term sacrifices is seen as politically inopportune. Even though climate change alone will incur a vast economic burden (\u003Ca href=\"#B27\"\u003EBurke et al., 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B29\"\u003ECarleton and Hsiang, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B4\"\u003EAuffhammer, 2018\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) possibly leading to war (nuclear, or otherwise) at a global scale (\u003Ca href=\"#B88\"\u003EKlare, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), most of the world's economies are predicated on the political idea that meaningful counteraction now is too costly to be politically palatable. Combined with financed disinformation campaigns in a bid to protect short-term profits (\u003Ca href=\"#B108\"\u003EOreskes and Conway, 2010\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B100\"\u003EMayer, 2016\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B6\"\u003EBakan, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), it is doubtful that any needed shift in economic investments of sufficient scale will be made in time.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWhile uncertain and prone to fluctuate according to unpredictable social and policy trends (\u003Ca href=\"#B11\"\u003EBoas et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B101\"\u003EMcLeman, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B106\"\u003ENature Climate Change, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), climate change and other environmental pressures will trigger more mass migration over the coming decades (\u003Ca href=\"#B101\"\u003EMcLeman, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), with an estimated 25 million to 1 billion environmental migrants expected by 2050 (\u003Ca href=\"#B22\"\u003EBrown, 2008\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). Because international law does not yet legally recognize such “environmental migrants” as refugees (\u003Ca href=\"#B139\"\u003EUnited Nations University, 2015\u003C\u002Fa\u003E) (although this is likely to change) (\u003Ca href=\"#B99\"\u003ELyons, 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), we fear that a rising tide of refugees will reduce, not increase, international cooperation in ways that will further weaken our capacity to mitigate the crisis.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h9\" name=\"h9\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EChanging the Rules of the Game\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWhile it is neither our intention nor capacity in this short \u003Ci\u003EPerspective\u003C\u002Fi\u003E to delve into the complexities and details of possible solutions to the human predicament, there is no shortage of evidence-based literature proposing ways to change human behavior for the benefit of all extant life. The remaining questions are less about \u003Ci\u003Ewhat\u003C\u002Fi\u003E to do, and more about \u003Ci\u003Ehow\u003C\u002Fi\u003E, stimulating the genesis of many organizations devoted to these pursuits (e.g., ipbes.org, goodanthropocenes.net, overshootday.org, mahb.stanford.edu, populationmatters.org, clubofrome.org, steadystate.org, to name a few). The gravity of the situation requires fundamental changes to global capitalism, education, and equality, which include \u003Ci\u003Einter alia\u003C\u002Fi\u003E the abolition of perpetual economic growth, properly pricing externalities, a rapid exit from fossil-fuel use, strict regulation of markets and property acquisition, reigning in corporate lobbying, and the empowerment of women. These choices will necessarily entail difficult conversations about population growth and the necessity of dwindling but more equitable standards of living.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h10\" name=\"h10\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EConclusions\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWe have summarized predictions of a ghastly future of mass extinction, declining health, and climate-disruption upheavals (including looming massive migrations) and resource conflicts this century. Yet, our goal is not to present a fatalist perspective, because there are many examples of successful interventions to prevent extinctions, restore ecosystems, and encourage more sustainable economic activity at both local and regional scales. Instead, we contend that only a realistic appreciation of the colossal challenges facing the international community might allow it to chart a less-ravaged future. While there have been more recent calls for the scientific community in particular to be more vocal about their warnings to humanity (\u003Ca href=\"#B119\"\u003ERipple et al., 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B30\"\u003ECavicchioli et al., 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B59\"\u003EGardner and Wordley, 2019\u003C\u002Fa\u003E), these have been insufficiently foreboding to match the scale of the crisis. Given the existence of a human “optimism bias” that triggers some to underestimate the severity of a crisis and ignore expert warnings, a good communication strategy must ideally undercut this bias without inducing disproportionate feelings of fear and despair (\u003Ca href=\"#B115\"\u003EPyke, 2017\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; \u003Ca href=\"#B142\"\u003EVan Bavel et al., 2020\u003C\u002Fa\u003E). It is therefore incumbent on experts in any discipline that deals with the future of the biosphere and human well-being to eschew reticence, avoid sugar-coating the overwhelming challenges ahead and “tell it like it is.” Anything else is misleading at best, or negligent and potentially lethal for the human enterprise at worst.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h11\" name=\"h11\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EData Availability Statement\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EThe original contributions presented in the study are included in the article\u002Fsupplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author\u002Fs.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h12\" name=\"h12\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EAuthor Contributions\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003ECJAB, DTB, and PRE designed the concept and wrote the article, with contributions from AB, GC, EC, JD, RD, AHE, JH, MEH, GP, PHR, WJR, FS, CT, and MW. CJAB prepared the figure. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h13\" name=\"h13\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFunding\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EWe thank the Rockefeller Foundation for Bellagio Writer's Fellowships to CJAB and PRE. Supported in part by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CE170100015).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h14\" name=\"h14\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EConflict of Interest\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"mb0\"\u003EThe authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Ca id=\"h15\" name=\"h15\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EReferences\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"References\"\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"ReferencesCopy1\"\u003E\u003Ca name=\"B1\" id=\"B1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E Acemoglu, D., Fergusson, L., and Johnson, S. 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Lett.\u003C\u002Fi\u003E 12:074024. doi: 10.1088\u002F1748-9326\u002Faa7541\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp class=\"ReferencesCopy2\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1088\u002F1748-9326\u002Faa7541\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ECrossRef Full Text\u003C\u002Fa\u003E | \u003Ca href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?author=S.+Wynes&author=K.+A.+Nicholas+&publication_year=2017&title=The+climate+mitigation+gap%3A+education+and+government+recommendations+miss+the+most+effective+individual+actions&journal=Environ.+Res.+Lett.&volume=12&pages=074024\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"thinLineM20\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"AbstractSummary\"\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EKeywords:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E sustainability, extinction, climate change, political will, human population, consumption\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003ECitation:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Bradshaw CJA, Ehrlich PR, Beattie A, Ceballos G, Crist E, Diamond J, Dirzo R, Ehrlich AH, Harte J, Harte ME, Pyke G, Raven PH, Ripple WJ, Saltré F, Turnbull C, Wackernagel M and Blumstein DT (2021) Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future. \u003Ci\u003EFront. Conserv. Sci.\u003C\u002Fi\u003E 1:615419. doi: 10.3389\u002Ffcosc.2020.615419\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp id=\"timestamps\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EReceived:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E 09 October 2020; \u003Cspan\u003EAccepted:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E 21 December 2020;\u003Cbr\u003E \u003Cspan\u003EPublished:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E 13 January 2021.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEdited by:\u003C\u002Fp\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1028262\u002Foverview\"\u003EDale Nimmo\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, Charles Sturt University, Australia\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cp\u003EReviewed by:\u003C\u002Fp\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F748169\u002Foverview\"\u003ETanya Wyatt\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, Northumbria University, United Kingdom\u003Cbr\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\u002F\u002Floop.frontiersin.org\u002Fpeople\u002F1146851\u002Foverview\"\u003EMagnus Nyström\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, Stockholm University, Sweden\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003ECopyright\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E © 2021 Bradshaw, Ehrlich, Beattie, Ceballos, Crist, Diamond, Dirzo, Ehrlich, Harte, Harte, Pyke, Raven, Ripple, Saltré, Turnbull, Wackernagel and Blumstein. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the \u003Ca rel=\"license\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fcreativecommons.org\u002Flicenses\u002Fby\u002F4.0\u002F\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ECreative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)\u003C\u002Fa\u003E. The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E*Correspondence:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Corey J. A. Bradshaw, \u003Ca id=\"encmail\"\u003EY29yZXkuYnJhZHNoYXdAZmxpbmRlcnMuZWR1LmF1\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; Paul R. Ehrlich, \u003Ca id=\"encmail\"\u003EcHJlQHN0YW5mb3JkLmVkdQ==\u003C\u002Fa\u003E; Daniel T. Blumstein, \u003Ca id=\"encmail\"\u003EbWFybW90c0B1Y2xhLmVkdQ==\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"clear\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E",menuHtml:"\u003Cul class=\"flyoutJournal\"\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h1\"\u003EAbstract\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h2\"\u003EIntroduction\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h3\"\u003EBiodiversity Loss\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h4\"\u003ESixth Mass Extinction\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h5\"\u003EEcological Overshoot: Population Size and Overconsumption\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h6\"\u003EFailed International Goals and Prospects for the Future\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h7\"\u003EClimate Disruption\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h8\"\u003EPolitical Impotence\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h9\"\u003EChanging the Rules of the Game\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h10\"\u003EConclusions\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h11\"\u003EData Availability Statement\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h12\"\u003EAuthor Contributions\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h13\"\u003EFunding\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h14\"\u003EConflict of Interest\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"#h15\"\u003EReferences\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\n\u003C\u002Ful\u003E"},files:[{name:"EPUB.epub",fileServerPackageEntryId:e,type:{code:aZ,name:aZ}},{name:a_,fileServerPackageEntryId:"fcosc-01-615419-r1\u002Ffcosc-01-615419.pdf",type:{code:s,name:s}},{name:a_,fileServerPackageEntryId:e,type:{code:s,name:s}},{name:"fcosc-01-615419.xml",fileServerPackageEntryId:"fcosc-01-615419-r1\u002Ffcosc-01-615419.xml",type:{code:"NLM_XML",name:"XML"}},{name:"Provisional PDF.pdf",fileServerPackageEntryId:e,type:{code:s,name:s}}]},currentArticlePageMetaInfo:{title:a$,link:[{rel:"canonical",href:ba}],meta:[{hid:z,property:z,name:z,content:bb},{hid:bc,property:bc,name:"title",content:a$},{hid:bd,property:bd,name:z,content:bb},{hid:be,name:be,content:"sustainability,extinction,Climate Change,Political will,Human population,consumption"},{hid:bf,property:bf,name:"site_name",content:A},{hid:bg,property:bg,name:G,content:"https:\u002F\u002Fimages-provider.frontiersin.org\u002Fapi\u002Fipx\u002Fw=1200&f=png\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Ffiles\u002FArticles\u002F615419\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-HTML-r1\u002Fimage_m\u002Ffcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg"},{hid:bh,property:bh,name:"type",content:"article"},{hid:bi,property:bi,name:"url",content:ba},{hid:bj,name:bj,content:"summary_large_image"},{hid:bk,name:bk,content:"1"},{hid:bl,name:bl,content:r},{hid:bm,name:bm,content:A},{hid:bn,name:bn,content:I},{hid:bo,name:bo,content:J},{hid:bp,name:bp,content:ad},{hid:bq,name:bq,content:"615419"},{hid:br,name:br,content:"English"},{hid:bs,name:bs,content:L},{hid:bt,name:bt,content:"sustainability; extinction; Climate Change; Political will; Human population; consumption"},{hid:bu,name:bu,content:ae},{hid:bv,name:bv,content:"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fconservation-science\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffcosc.2020.615419\u002Fpdf"},{hid:bw,name:bw,content:"2020\u002F12\u002F21"},{hid:bx,name:bx,content:"2021\u002F01\u002F13"},{hid:"citation_author_0",name:n,content:"Bradshaw, Corey J. A."},{hid:"citation_author_institution_0",name:o,content:by},{hid:"citation_author_1",name:n,content:"Ehrlich, Paul R."},{hid:"citation_author_institution_1",name:o,content:P},{hid:"citation_author_2",name:n,content:"Beattie, Andrew"},{hid:"citation_author_institution_2",name:o,content:Q},{hid:"citation_author_3",name:n,content:"Ceballos, Gerardo"},{hid:"citation_author_institution_3",name:o,content:"Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico"},{hid:"citation_author_4",name:n,content:"Crist, Eileen"},{hid:"citation_author_institution_4",name:o,content:"Department of Science, Technology, and Society, Virginia Tech, United States"},{hid:"citation_author_5",name:n,content:"Diamond, Joan"},{hid:"citation_author_institution_5",name:o,content:"Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Department of Biology, Stanford University, United States"},{hid:"citation_author_6",name:n,content:"Dirzo, 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