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mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Freight transport is responsible for a high percentage of vehicle emissions. Substantial reductions will require a greater focus on medium- and heavy-duty trucks.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fautomotive%20and%20assembly%2Four%20insights%2Froad%20freight%20global%20pathways%20report%2Fpathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021" data-layer-report-name="pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (36 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The decarbonization of transportation</strong> has made great strides in many parts of the world, thanks to zero-emission (ZE) cars, buses, light commercial vehicles, and various forms of micromobility. Progress has been slower, however, for medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MDTs and HDTs). Road freight now accounts for 53 percent of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions within global trade-related transport, and this share is expected to rise to 56 percent by 2050 if current trends continue.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_8032924" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_8032924 mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the authors</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body">This article is a collaborative effort by Henrik Becker, Vittorio Bichucher, Jonathan Dwyer, Shannon Engstrom, Angie Farrag-Thibault, Camelia Hamdi-Cherif, <a href="/our-people/bernd-heid">Bernd Heid</a>, <a href="/our-people/patrick-hertzke">Patrick Hertzke</a>, Alix de Monts, Erik Östgren, Margi Van Gogh, Christoph Wolff, and Emily Yang.</div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>While many recent technological advances have put a low-carbon-truck future within reach, success will require greater collaboration along the entire value chain. The World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) Road Freight Zero (RFZ) initiative, established in September 2020, is designed to help industry leaders jointly develop solutions. The target audience includes stakeholders on both the demand and supply sides, including manufacturers; consumer-goods giants; logistics majors; fleet operators; energy, tech, and infrastructure firms; innovators; finance companies; academic institutions; and civil-society groups.</p> <p>Our report, <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf"><em>Road Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks</em></a>, is a joint publication by WEF and McKinsey that describes how the RFZ initiative can help countries reach their emissions goals. This report draws on a large body of modeling, research, and direct RFZ-partner engagement, including multiple workshops with more than 40 companies, a dedicated survey to assess barriers and solution pathways, numerous deep-structured interviews with RFZ partners to analyze specific archetypes of ZE truck adoption, and quantitative use-case modeling.</p> <p>After providing an overview of the road-freight market, this report discusses barriers that may prevent progress toward ZE emissions, as well as potential solutions for overcoming obstacles. Although this report focuses on the European trucking sector, many of the solutions could be applied globally.</p> <h2>The growing toll of road-freight emissions</h2>  <p>Road freight currently generates 15 percent of European CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. About 70 percent of those emissions come from MDTs and HDTs—the hardest-to-abate segments. But this may not be the case for much longer since the transition to ZE technologies has already begun. Recent research by the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility suggests that by 2025, 4 percent of all MDT and HDT sales in Europe will be ZE vehicles. That share could grow to 37 percent by 2030, representing about 150,000 vehicles, provided that the rollout is supported by 140,000 public and destination charging points and 1,500 compatible hydrogen-fueling stations.</p> <p>The current growth trajectory for ZE trucks, while promising, would not be sufficient to <a href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-math-what-a-1-point-5-degree-pathway-would-take">limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels</a>—the amount agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Accord. To reach that target, there would need to be even more investment in both ZE trucks and infrastructure than currently projected. For instance, additional investments of €25 billion to €30 billion are needed by 2030 for a faster rollout of higher capital-expenditure ZE trucks. Supporting a much larger ZE fleet in a 1.5°C pathway could also require €50 billion to €60 billion in additional <a href="/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/built-to-last-making-sustainability-a-priority-in-transport-infrastructure">infrastructure investments</a> (above current projections) by 2030. That equates to approximately 1,000 to 1,500 additional hydrogen-fueling stations and 150,000 to 200,000 additional charging points for trucks.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_8032924"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients">Sustainability Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">View the page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h3>Underlying technologies</h3> <p>Two main technologies currently vie for acceptance: battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen-fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (Exhibit 1). Both feature electric powertrains with batteries and electric motors, but they use different energy-storage systems. While a broad offering of BEV trucks will become available before 2025, most OEMs are also investing in FCEV technology, with large-scale market entries planned post-2025. Hence, the future market will most likely include a mix of both BEV and FCEV powertrain technologies. The backers of both BEV and FCEV technologies assume that future tipping points, including regulatory policy changes, will close the gap for the total cost of ownership (TCO) between these technologies and the alternatives (diesel vehicles or other ZE truck solutions).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/road%20freight%20global%20pathways%20report/svgz-roadfreight-v3-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Different technologies can enable zero-emission trucks." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/road%20freight%20global%20pathways%20report/svgz-roadfreight-v3-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>The importance of partners along the value chain and alternative fuels</h3> <p>Although our report focuses on road freight with zero on-road emissions, full decarbonization depends on the entire value chain. For example, BEV trucks run on electricity from the grid, but the carbon intensity of national electrical grids varies by country. In the EU, about 60 percent of electricity comes from carbon-free sources, so renewable-energy supplies need to expand in sync with BEV truck demand. Currently, a mix of blue (low-carbon) and early pilots of green (renewable) hydrogen are available commercially. To achieve the full decarbonization impact for FCEV trucks, the hydrogen must come solely from green sources.</p> <p>In addition to BEV and FCEV, the industry can help reduce net carbon emissions using alternative fuels. While options such as liquid natural gas (LNG) or compressed natural gas (CNG) allow for moderate carbon savings, synthetic fuels and newer biofuels, such as bio-LNG, bio-CNG and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) biodiesel, are becoming viable lower-carbon options. As these alternative powertrains use internal combustion engines, they can play a relevant role as bridging solutions, although they all generate tailpipe emissions and thus are less attractive to regulators.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/climate%20math%20what%20a%201%20point%205%20degree%20pathway%20would%20take/climate_math_1536x1536_new.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_8032924"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div>Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-math-what-a-1-point-5-degree-pathway-would-take" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Read the article</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>Barriers to zero-emissions trucking and the path forward</h2> <p>Through a formal survey and deep-dive interviews of Road Freight Zero partners, we uncovered many potential challenges to ZE truck adoption from 2021 through 2030. These are the two most important barriers:</p> <ul> <li><em>A lack of charging/refueling infrastructure. </em>ZE trucks will require <a href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/why-most-etrucks-will-choose-overnight-charging">new charging or hydrogen-refueling stations</a>. For some use cases, charging and refueling operations can take place in depots <strong></strong>using infrastructure built specifically for the user. But to increase route flexibility and to serve the full set of use cases, stakeholders need to build public on-the-go infrastructure, which typically requires high investment, strong business cases, and effective execution.</li> <li><em>The need for new financing models for trucks and infrastructure. </em>Finance companies must adapt the depreciation and operating cost curve models of traditional trucks to suit ZE-truck technology. For instance, vehicle depreciation related to TCO depends on the purchase price, residual value, and duration of ownership. High capital expenditures and uncertain residuals result in higher depreciation and high truck costs for ZE vehicles, and financing models should take this into account.</li> </ul> <p>Based on our survey of WEF partners, discussions with industry partners, and a review of the latest published reports, the RFZ initiative has identified three groups of solutions to overcome barriers and accelerate road-freight decarbonization. First, new policies could improve TCO for ZE-truck owners while simultaneously reducing risk for infrastructure providers. These policies might include the following:</p> <ul> <li>purchase subsidies for ZE trucks</li> <li>carbon taxes or credits on vehicle emissions</li> <li>road-toll exemptions for ZE trucks or penalties for diesel trucks</li> <li>increased taxes or driving bans and fines in city centers (assuming appropriate ZE-truck alternatives are available)</li> <li>grants that cover up to 75 percent of infrastructure purchase and installation costs</li> <li>tax reductions on electricity rates for companies that provide commercial EV charging</li> </ul> <p>The industry would also benefit from innovative financing, especially at the beginning and end of the ownership period. Possible solutions might involve dynamic pay-per-mile leasing schemes, which reduce the risk for fleet operators by partially basing payment on usage, or battery-as-a-service offerings, which end customers could purchase on a monthly subscription basis.</p> <p>Finally, the path to ZE trucking will be smoother if industry consortia collaborate on a coordinated rollout of market-ready ZE vehicles and corresponding infrastructure. Some pilots are already occurring in Europe, and they could serve as models for larger deployment as TCO improves.</p> <p>In addition to overcoming barriers, the trucking industry may accelerate the adoption of ZE trucks by focusing on the correct use cases. Based on a detailed database and a TCO tool, the RFZ team estimates that two use cases will be most important over the near-to-medium term and also have the greatest decarbonization impact in Europe. The first relies on depot distribution via MDTs and involves 11 short-haul routes around regional hubs. The trucks would return to the same depots each day with high route predictability, reducing demand uncertainty for both infrastructure and trucks. Exhibit 2 provides more information on activity patterns and operations for these routes. With this use case, the upfront capital-expenditure investment for the trucks themselves will be lower than that for long-haul trucks because their lower payload and range requirements allow the use of smaller batteries. The second important use case focuses on long-haul routes along nine high-traffic corridors in Europe using HDTs.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/road%20freight%20global%20pathways%20report/svgz-roadfreight-v3-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Short-haul deliveries using zero-emission trucks involve various activities and operations." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/road%20freight%20global%20pathways%20report/svgz-roadfreight-v3-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p><em>For more information, download the full report on which this article is based, <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf"></a></em><a href="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf">Road Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks</a> (PDF<span style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#333333">–</span>10.9 MB).</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Henrik Becker</strong> is a solution manager in McKinsey’s Zurich office; <strong>Vittorio Bichucher</strong> is a consultant in the Detroit office; <strong>Jonathan Dwyer</strong>, <strong>Camelia Hamdi-Cherif</strong>, and <strong>Alix de Monts</strong> are consultants in the London office, where <strong><a href="/our-people/patrick-hertzke">Patrick Hertzke</a></strong> is a partner; <strong><a href="/our-people/bernd-heid">Bernd Heid</a></strong> is a senior partner in the Cologne office; and <strong>Erik Östgren</strong> is an associate partner in the Stockholm office, where <strong>Emily Yang</strong> is a consultant. <strong>Shannon Engstrom</strong> is a sustainability initiatives specialist at the World Economic Forum (WEF), where <strong>Christoph Wolff</strong> is the former head of platform for shaping the future of mobility. <strong>Angie Farrag-Thibault</strong> is the global trucking lead at the Mission Possible Project of WEF, where <strong>Margi Van Gogh</strong> is the head of supply chain and transport industries.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 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href="/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/built-to-last-making-sustainability-a-priority-in-transport-infrastructure" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-built-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Built to last: Making sustainability a priority in transport infrastructure" class="picture-uniqueKey-built-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/travel%20logistics%20and%20infrastructure/our%20insights/built%20to%20last%20making%20sustainability%20a%20priority%20in%20transport%20infrastructure/infrastructure-sustainability-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a 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src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/why%20most%20etrucks%20will%20choose%20overnight%20charging/why-e-trucks-hero-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/why-most-etrucks-will-choose-overnight-charging" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>Why most eTrucks will choose overnight charging</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Road freight global pathways report","displayName":"Road freight global pathways report","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"33823814-b385-4e1f-af32-fc50690a7ae8","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Road freight global pathways report"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Freight transport is responsible for a high percentage of vehicle emissions. Substantial reductions will require a greater focus on medium- and heavy-duty trucks."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"Freight transport is responsible for a high percentage of vehicle emissions. Substantial reductions will require greater focus on zero-emission trucks. "},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2022-01-18T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[Audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe decarbonization of transportation\u003c/strong\u003e has made great strides in many parts of the world, thanks to zero-emission (ZE) cars, buses, light commercial vehicles, and various forms of micromobility. Progress has been slower, however, for medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MDTs and HDTs). Road freight now accounts for 53 percent of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions within global trade-related transport, and this share is expected to rise to 56 percent by 2050 if current trends continue.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Sidebar authors]]\n\u003cp\u003eWhile many recent technological advances have put a low-carbon-truck future within reach, success will require greater collaboration along the entire value chain. The World Economic Forum\u0026rsquo;s (WEF\u0026rsquo;s) Road Freight Zero (RFZ) initiative, established in September 2020, is designed to help industry leaders jointly develop solutions. The target audience includes stakeholders on both the demand and supply sides, including manufacturers; consumer-goods giants; logistics majors; fleet operators; energy, tech, and infrastructure firms; innovators; finance companies; academic institutions; and civil-society groups.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur report, \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eRoad Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e, is a joint publication by WEF and McKinsey that describes how the RFZ initiative can help countries reach their emissions goals. This report draws on a large body of modeling, research, and direct RFZ-partner engagement, including multiple workshops with more than 40 companies, a dedicated survey to assess barriers and solution pathways, numerous deep-structured interviews with RFZ partners to analyze specific archetypes of ZE truck adoption, and quantitative use-case modeling.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter providing an overview of the road-freight market, this report discusses barriers that may prevent progress toward ZE emissions, as well as potential solutions for overcoming obstacles. Although this report focuses on the European trucking sector, many of the solutions could be applied globally.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eThe growing toll of road-freight emissions\u003c/h2\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eRoad freight currently generates 15 percent of European CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions. About 70 percent of those emissions come from MDTs and HDTs\u0026mdash;the hardest-to-abate segments. But this may not be the case for much longer since the transition to ZE technologies has already begun. Recent research by the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility suggests that by 2025, 4 percent of all MDT and HDT sales in Europe will be ZE vehicles. That share could grow to 37 percent by 2030, representing about 150,000 vehicles, provided that the rollout is supported by 140,000 public and destination charging points and 1,500 compatible hydrogen-fueling stations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe current growth trajectory for ZE trucks, while promising, would not be sufficient to \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-math-what-a-1-point-5-degree-pathway-would-take\"\u003elimit global warming to 1.5\u0026deg;C above preindustrial levels\u003c/a\u003e\u0026mdash;the amount agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Accord. To reach that target, there would need to be even more investment in both ZE trucks and infrastructure than currently projected. For instance, additional investments of \u0026euro;25 billion to \u0026euro;30 billion are needed by 2030 for a faster rollout of higher capital-expenditure ZE trucks. Supporting a much larger ZE fleet in a 1.5\u0026deg;C pathway could also require \u0026euro;50 billion to \u0026euro;60 billion in additional \u003ca href=\"/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/built-to-last-making-sustainability-a-priority-in-transport-infrastructure\"\u003einfrastructure investments\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(above current projections) by 2030. That equates to approximately 1,000 to 1,500 additional hydrogen-fueling stations and 150,000 to 200,000 additional charging points for trucks.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1UP dis1]]\n\u003ch3\u003eUnderlying technologies\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo main technologies currently vie for acceptance: battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen-fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (Exhibit 1). Both feature electric powertrains with batteries and electric motors, but they use different energy-storage systems. While a broad offering of BEV trucks will become available before 2025, most OEMs are also investing in FCEV technology, with large-scale market entries planned post-2025. Hence, the future market will most likely include a mix of both BEV and FCEV powertrain technologies. The backers of both BEV and FCEV technologies assume that future tipping points, including regulatory policy changes, will close the gap for the total cost of ownership (TCO) between these technologies and the alternatives (diesel vehicles or other ZE truck solutions).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003ch3\u003eThe importance of partners along the value chain and alternative fuels\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough our report focuses on road freight with zero on-road emissions, full decarbonization depends on the entire value chain. For example, BEV trucks run on electricity from the grid, but the carbon intensity of national electrical grids varies by country. In the EU, about 60 percent of electricity comes from carbon-free sources, so renewable-energy supplies need to expand in sync with BEV truck demand. Currently, a mix of blue (low-carbon) and early pilots of green (renewable) hydrogen are available commercially. To achieve the full decarbonization impact for FCEV trucks, the hydrogen must come solely from green sources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition to BEV and FCEV, the industry can help reduce net carbon emissions using alternative fuels. While options such as liquid natural gas (LNG) or compressed natural gas (CNG) allow for moderate carbon savings, synthetic fuels and newer biofuels, such as bio-LNG, bio-CNG and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) biodiesel, are becoming viable lower-carbon options. As these alternative powertrains use internal combustion engines, they can play a relevant role as bridging solutions, although they all generate tailpipe emissions and thus are less attractive to regulators.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1UP dis2]]\n\u003ch2\u003eBarriers to zero-emissions trucking and the path forward\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThrough a formal survey and deep-dive interviews of Road Freight Zero partners, we uncovered many potential challenges to ZE truck adoption from 2021 through 2030. These are the two most important barriers:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eA lack of charging/refueling infrastructure. \u003c/em\u003eZE trucks will require \u003ca href=\"/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/why-most-etrucks-will-choose-overnight-charging\"\u003enew charging or hydrogen-refueling stations\u003c/a\u003e. For some use cases, charging and refueling operations can take place in depots \u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003eusing infrastructure built specifically for the user. But to increase route flexibility and to serve the full set of use cases, stakeholders need to build public on-the-go infrastructure, which typically requires high investment, strong business cases, and effective execution.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe need for new financing models for trucks and infrastructure. \u003c/em\u003eFinance companies must adapt the depreciation and operating cost curve models of traditional trucks to suit ZE-truck technology. For instance, vehicle depreciation related to TCO depends on the purchase price, residual value, and duration of ownership. High capital expenditures and uncertain residuals result in higher depreciation and high truck costs for ZE vehicles, and financing models should take this into account.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBased on our survey of WEF partners, discussions with industry partners, and a review of the latest published reports, the RFZ initiative has identified three groups of solutions to overcome barriers and accelerate road-freight decarbonization. First, new policies could improve TCO for ZE-truck owners while simultaneously reducing risk for infrastructure providers. These policies might include the following:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003epurchase subsidies for ZE trucks\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ecarbon taxes or credits on vehicle emissions\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eroad-toll exemptions for ZE trucks or penalties for diesel trucks\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eincreased taxes or driving bans and fines in city centers (assuming appropriate ZE-truck alternatives are available)\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003egrants that cover up to 75 percent of infrastructure purchase and installation costs\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003etax reductions on electricity rates for companies that provide commercial EV charging\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe industry would also benefit from innovative financing, especially at the beginning and end of the ownership period. Possible solutions might involve dynamic pay-per-mile leasing schemes, which reduce the risk for fleet operators by partially basing payment on usage, or battery-as-a-service offerings, which end customers could purchase on a monthly subscription basis.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, the path to ZE trucking will be smoother if industry consortia collaborate on a coordinated rollout of market-ready ZE vehicles and corresponding infrastructure. Some pilots are already occurring in Europe, and they could serve as models for larger deployment as TCO improves.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition to overcoming barriers, the trucking industry may accelerate the adoption of ZE trucks by focusing on the correct use cases. Based on a detailed database and a TCO tool, the RFZ team estimates that two use cases will be most important over the near-to-medium term and also have the greatest decarbonization impact in Europe. The first relies on depot distribution via MDTs and involves 11 short-haul routes around regional hubs. The trucks would return to the same depots each day with high route predictability, reducing demand uncertainty for both infrastructure and trucks. Exhibit 2 provides more information on activity patterns and operations for these routes. With this use case, the upfront capital-expenditure investment for the trucks themselves will be lower than that for long-haul trucks because their lower payload and range requirements allow the use of smaller batteries. The second important use case focuses on long-haul routes along nine high-traffic corridors in Europe using HDTs.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFor more information, download the full report on which this article is based, \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive and assembly/our insights/road freight global pathways report/pathways-to-faster-adoption-of-zero-emission-trucks-2021.pdf\"\u003eRoad Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(PDF\u003cspan style=\"background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333;\"\u003e\u0026ndash;\u003c/span\u003e10.9 MB).\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2022-01-18T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Automotive \u0026 Assembly"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHenrik Becker\u003c/strong\u003e is a solution manager in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Zurich office; \u003cstrong\u003eVittorio Bichucher\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in the Detroit office; \u003cstrong\u003eJonathan Dwyer\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eCamelia Hamdi-Cherif\u003c/strong\u003e, and \u003cstrong\u003eAlix de Monts\u003c/strong\u003e are consultants in the London office, where \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/patrick-hertzke\"\u003ePatrick Hertzke\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;is a partner; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/bernd-heid\"\u003eBernd Heid\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the Cologne office; and \u003cstrong\u003eErik \u0026Ouml;stgren\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate partner in the Stockholm office, where \u003cstrong\u003eEmily Yang\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant. \u003cstrong\u003eShannon Engstrom\u003c/strong\u003e is a sustainability initiatives specialist at the World Economic Forum (WEF), where \u003cstrong\u003eChristoph Wolff\u003c/strong\u003e is the former head of platform for shaping the future of mobility. \u003cstrong\u003eAngie Farrag-Thibault\u003c/strong\u003e is the global trucking lead at the Mission Possible Project of WEF, where \u003cstrong\u003eMargi Van Gogh\u003c/strong\u003e is the head of supply chain and transport industries.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"McKinsey Quarterly"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-math-what-a-1-point-5-degree-pathway-would-take"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Decarbonizing global business at scale is achievable, but the math is daunting."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/sustainability/our insights/climate math what a 1 point 5 degree pathway would take/climate_math_1536x1536_new.jpg","alt":"Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Built to last: Making sustainability a priority in transport infrastructure"},"url":{"path":"/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/built-to-last-making-sustainability-a-priority-in-transport-infrastructure"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Every year, trillions of dollars are invested in the infrastructure that helps us\u0026mdash;and our goods\u0026mdash;get around. 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