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<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><title data-rh="true">Nike’s $25B blunder shows us the limits of “data-driven” | by Pavel Samsonov | UX Collective</title><meta data-rh="true" charset="utf-8"/><meta data-rh="true" name="viewport" content="width=device-width,minimum-scale=1,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1"/><meta data-rh="true" name="theme-color" content="#000000"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:name:iphone" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:id:iphone" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_store_id" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:package" content="com.medium.reader"/><meta data-rh="true" property="fb:app_id" content="542599432471018"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:site_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-rh="true" property="article:published_time" content="2025-01-29T00:53:39.631Z"/><meta data-rh="true" name="title" content="Nike’s $25B blunder shows us the limits of “data-driven” | by Pavel Samsonov | UX Collective"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:title" content="Nike’s $25B blunder shows us the limits of “data-driven”"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:url" content="medium://p/ad30b6e3d938"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:url" content="medium://p/ad30b6e3d938"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="description" content="Last week, the former Sr. Brand Director of Nike published a rare deep dive into a marketing blunder four years in the making. 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aria-hidden="true"><span class="bf b bg z du">·</span></span></div></div><span class="bf b bg z du"><div class="ab ae"><span data-testid="storyReadTime">6 min read</span><div class="jx jy l" aria-hidden="true"><span class="l" aria-hidden="true"><span class="bf b bg z du">·</span></span></div><span data-testid="storyPublishDate">Jul 31, 2024</span></div></span></div></span></div></div></div><div class="ab cp jz ka kb kc kd ke kf kg kh ki kj kk kl km kn ko"><div class="h k w fg fh q"><div class="le l"><div class="ab q lf lg"><div class="pw-multi-vote-icon fj jo lh li lj"><span><a class="af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at" data-testid="headerClapButton" 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ak al mp an ao ap ex mq mr mf ms mt mu mv mw s mx my mz na nb nc nd u ne nf ng"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M15.218 4.931a.4.4 0 0 1-.118.132l.012.006a.45.45 0 0 1-.292.074.5.5 0 0 1-.3-.13l-2.02-2.02v7.07c0 .28-.23.5-.5.5s-.5-.22-.5-.5v-7.04l-2 2a.45.45 0 0 1-.57.04h-.02a.4.4 0 0 1-.16-.3.4.4 0 0 1 .1-.32l2.8-2.8a.5.5 0 0 1 .7 0l2.8 2.79a.42.42 0 0 1 .068.498m-.106.138.008.004v-.01zM16 7.063h1.5a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v10a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-11c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2v-10a2 2 0 0 1 2-2H8a.5.5 0 0 1 .35.15.5.5 0 0 1 .15.35.5.5 0 0 1-.15.35.5.5 0 0 1-.35.15H6.4c-.5 0-.9.4-.9.9v10.2a.9.9 0 0 0 .9.9h11.2c.5 0 .9-.4.9-.9v-10.2c0-.5-.4-.9-.9-.9H16a.5.5 0 0 1 0-1" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg><div class="j i d"><p class="bf b bg z du">Share</p></div></button></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p id="7da0" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Last week, the former Sr. Brand Director of Nike <a class="af od" href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nike-epic-saga-value-destruction-massimo-giunco-llplf/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">published a rare deep dive</a> into a marketing blunder four years in the making. As a firm believer in taking inspiration from <a class="af od" href="https://www.holloway.com/g/land-your-dream-design-job/sections/looking-at-analogous-domains-for-inspiration" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">analogous domains</a>, I think there is a great lesson here for Product and UX to take away.</p><p id="caa0" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Why do I think it’s relevant? Just tell me this doesn’t sound familiar:</p><blockquote class="oe of og"><p id="0869" class="nh ni oh nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">“Nike invested billions into something that was less effective but easier to be measured vs something that was more effective but less easy to be measured.”</p></blockquote><p id="9310" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">On the advice of McKinsey, Nike’s new CEO John Donahoe decided to pivot to a “data-driven” approach, reorganizing the company towards digital direct-to-consumer sales and eliminating the former model centered on <a class="af od" href="https://agital.com/blog/how-should-i-categorize-products-on-my-ecommerce-website/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">distinct categories</a>. The allure is easy to recognize, and it’s the same trap that <a class="af od" href="https://docseuss.medium.com/the-biggest-threat-facing-your-team-whether-youre-a-game-developer-or-a-tech-founder-or-a-ceo-is-8cd1ad359508" rel="noopener">Boeing and other companies</a> fell into over the preceding years.</p><p id="e6db" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Coming up with new ideas is difficult and requires specialist knowledge. Moreover, it requires specialist knowledge to <a class="af od" href="https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1816557338758713484" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">understand what those specialists are doing</a> and therefore manage them.</p><p id="9212" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Meanwhile, slashing costs works the same way across every industry. And so Nike squared up to eliminate duplicate processes, streamline operations, improve efficiency, and increase productivity — all those phrases that are meant to say “whatever it is you do — do it harder.”</p><figure class="ol om on oo op oq oi oj paragraph-image"><div role="button" tabindex="0" class="or os fj ot bh ou"><div class="oi oj ok"><picture><source srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="Elaine looked stricken. Gina snatched the list from her and wrote: 1. Optimize potential. 2. Facilitate empowerment. 3. Implement visioning. 4. Strategize priorities. 5. Augment core structures." class="bh mo ov c" width="700" height="525" loading="lazy"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="ow ff ox oi oj oy oz bf b bg z du">This kind of strategy was already a punchline in 1997 (Bellwether, Connie Willis)</figcaption></figure><p id="6cb6" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">How well did it work? Well, that depends on what the intent behind the strategy was. If Donahoe intended to lose $25B in market cap and tank the stock price 32%, it was a smashing success. For those of us who don’t think that’s what he meant to do, it bears reflecting on where he went wrong.</p><h1 id="f312" class="pa pb gu bf pc pd pe hu pf pg ph hx pi pj pk pl pm pn po pp pq pr ps pt pu pv bk">The hard limits of data</h1><blockquote class="oe of og"><p id="b428" class="nh ni oh nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it — a costly myth.<em class="gu"> — </em><a class="af od" href="https://deming.org/myth-if-you-cant-measure-it-you-cant-manage-it/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><em class="gu">W. Edwards Deming</em></a></p></blockquote><p id="8031" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Data isn’t worthless. Data is really, really valuable for telling you what has happened <a class="af od" rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="/what-have-we-already-tried-is-the-most-powerful-product-question-you-can-ask-f4cdd31f3a47">in the past</a>. Great expense has gone into producing data that can tell you what’s going on in the present. But as the 7- and 8-figure salaries of quantitative analysts at hedge funds show us, using data to extrapolate what will happen <em class="oh">in the future</em> is one of the most challenging things you can try to do with it.</p><p id="c66c" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Typically, the way one would do that is by harvesting what’s called <a class="af od" href="https://batesoninstitute.org/warm-data/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">warm data</a> — the qualitative data that gives the numbers their meaning — and then using that to tell a story about where the numbers are going.</p><p id="66bd" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Unfortunately, that’s not what online advertising does. As <a class="af od" href="https://bsky.app/profile/pabastien.bsky.social/post/3kyjuiqxgnm2h" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Phil Bastien calls out here</a> the most common outcome of advertising data is that if you buy a couch, it must mean that you need more couches.</p><figure class="ol om on oo op oq oi oj paragraph-image"><div role="button" tabindex="0" class="or os fj ot bh ou"><div class="oi oj pw"><picture><source srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*RcFAvL2ISIohVubg 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="Me: Buys a bathtub. Amazon ads for the next 2 months: do you want to buy a bathtub??" class="bh mo ov c" width="700" height="303" loading="lazy"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="ow ff ox oi oj oy oz bf b bg z du"><em class="px">Phil’s assertion is easy to validate — just turn off Adblock and see if your experience matches that of the 1100 people who agree with user brain.curiosities</em><a class="af od" href="https://www.threads.net/@brain.curiosities/post/C7GpYCoMC2J" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><em class="px"> on Threads</em></a></figcaption></figure><p id="0f61" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Human marketers and merchandisers know this — it’s why you might see paper towels next to the BBQ sauce or buns and hotdogs together at the store. Humans could enrich “you are buying bread” with the qualitative data point “toppings go on bread” to create a delightful shopping experience. But getting data — even data fed to an AI — to do this is <a class="af od" href="https://www.wired.com/story/ai-product-recommendations/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">much harder than you’d think</a>.</p><p id="cb58" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Nike’s decision to eliminate individual product categories — who could marshal exactly this kind of expertise — in favor of a generic one-size-fits-all data model created a problem that you can probably predict. This model performed the equivalent of <a class="af od" href="https://thecorrespondent.com/100/the-new-dot-com-bubble-is-here-its-called-online-advertising/13228924500-22d5fd24" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">handing out flyers for your pizza shop in the pizza shop’s lobby</a> and signaled the business to reorganize from attracting new customers to pumping more money out of the customers they already had.</p><h1 id="9da2" class="pa pb gu bf pc pd pe hu pf pg ph hx pi pj pk pl pm pn po pp pq pr ps pt pu pv bk">The data-driven death spiral</h1><blockquote class="oe of og"><p id="b714" class="nh ni oh nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Measuring the wrong things is a fast path to disaster. — <em class="gu">Jared Spool</em></p></blockquote><p id="4fc7" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">One might propose that the entire profit motive behind the genre of creative work made up by brand, marketing, and design is to <a class="af od" href="https://designmuseumfoundation.org/art-of-designing-for-behavior-change/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">drive behavior change</a>. We enable customers to do something new — whether by informing them that an option exists, or making it more attractive and effective to choose that option over others.</p><p id="b4cc" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">And this is where the trouble starts. Nike’s incestuous strategy was bringing in data on <em class="oh">existing</em> customers — those whose behavior didn’t need changing.</p><p id="ea23" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">This is an extremely common mistake in <a class="af od" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nonresponse-bias-ipsos-poll-findings/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">all kinds of industries</a> — the most vocal, most frequent, loudest participants in your research are <a class="af od" href="https://usabilitygeek.com/problem-with-power-users/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">the least representative</a> of the total addressable market. The people who don’t — <a class="af od" href="https://builtin.com/articles/accessibility-is-not-optional" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">or can’t</a> — use your product barely show up on the radar.</p><p id="d908" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">It’s tempting to reach only for the data that’s easiest to harvest, and stop there. That’s exactly what Nike did with their online shopping data. As a result, their product priorities <a class="af od" href="https://www.nicekicks.com/the-rise-of-limited-edition-nikes-in-streetwear-culture" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">rapidly diverged </a>from the kind of things ordinary customers buy, while product with mass appeal rotted in warehouses for lack of places to sell it. And the longer Nike chased these fringe customers, the more ordinary shoppers moved on to a competitor’s product.</p><h1 id="4217" class="pa pb gu bf pc pd pe hu pf pg ph hx pi pj pk pl pm pn po pp pq pr ps pt pu pv bk">Letting data drive you is fixed-mindset thinking</h1><blockquote class="oe of og"><p id="9bb7" class="nh ni oh nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">“A fetish has been made of quantitative methods and whole laboratories have been devoted to solving, with elaborate statistical machinery, problems which had very slight importance.” <em class="gu">— </em><a class="af od" href="https://caj.io/abstract/introduction-quantitative-methods-has-tended-paralyze-social-sciences-thinking" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><em class="gu">Gregory Bateson, 1944</em></a></p></blockquote><p id="f37a" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">With the benefit of time and distance, it’s easy to condemn Nike for making this mistake. It’s even easier to <a class="af od" href="https://spavel.medium.com/what-have-we-already-tried-is-the-most-powerful-product-question-you-can-ask-f4cdd31f3a47" rel="noopener">believe that we can avoid it</a> — because we would simply pick the right data to follow, instead of the wrong data.</p><figure class="ol om on oo op oq oi oj paragraph-image"><div role="button" tabindex="0" class="or os fj ot bh ou"><div class="oi oj py"><picture><source srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="Well, did it work for those people? No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but… but it might work for us." class="bh mo ov c" width="700" height="520" loading="lazy"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="ow ff ox oi oj oy oz bf b bg z du">Arrested Development: The One Where Michael Leaves</figcaption></figure><p id="8841" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">The fact of the matter is that this mistake was made by experienced, intelligent professionals who also thought that they were doing the right thing. It’s not enough to identify that they were wrong; we need to understand why in that moment, the wrong thing <a class="af od" href="https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-infinite-hows/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">seemed like the best way forward</a>.</p><p id="7cd3" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">And it’s easy to see how it would be. Nike is still one of the world’s most valuable brands, and chasing whales has worked well for many lesser firms. In an environment as risk-laden as 2020 was, it feels good to <a class="af od" href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pavel-samsonov-44ba2833_mastery-feels-good-failing-feels-bad-improving-activity-7216454284953935872-4AKW" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">lean into your strengths</a> and get a practically-guaranteed 10% (or whatever) bump in your metrics.</p><p id="b3d7" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">It’s also very tempting to close your eyes and pretend that the 10% isn’t coming at the cost of larger losses elsewhere, because if you speak up it might be your job that’s on the line in the next round of layoffs. It takes a lot of courage and conviction to push back against the <a class="af od" rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="/dont-make-data-driven-product-decisions-build-a-data-driven-semantic-environment-3220d177b73f">dominant narrative</a>. It takes research skills to form an informed hypothesis and business sense to convince people with budgets that it ought to be tried.</p><p id="5bde" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">“Validating” what everyone already believes is far easier — but it adds no value. The value of research doesn’t come from elevating people who are already shouting. It comes from finding the people who are <em class="oh">not</em> being heard, and adding <em class="oh">their</em> voices to the conversation.</p><p id="12e8" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Then you can make a <em class="oh">real </em>data-driven decision: a decision driven by <em class="oh">all </em>the data.</p><p id="584e" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nh ni gu nj b hs nk nl nm hv nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc gn bk">Otherwise, the best you can do is <a class="af od" href="https://spavel.medium.com/to-benefit-from-ai-your-organizations-learning-loops-must-evolve-5b6145415f6a" rel="noopener">commodity-grade</a> decision-making.</p></div></div></div></div></section></div></div></article></div><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div class="pz qa ab jm"><div class="qb ab"><a class="qc ay am ao" 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As a firm believer in taking inspiration from analogous domains, I think there is a great lesson here for Product and UX to take away.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":49,"end":75,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fpulse\u002Fnike-epic-saga-value-destruction-massimo-giunco-llplf\u002F","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null},{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":173,"end":190,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.holloway.com\u002Fg\u002Fland-your-dream-design-job\u002Fsections\u002Flooking-at-analogous-domains-for-inspiration","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_3":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_3","name":"caa0","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Why do I think it’s relevant? Just tell me this doesn’t sound familiar:","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_4":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_4","name":"0869","type":"BQ","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"“Nike invested billions into something that was less effective but easier to be measured vs something that was more effective but less easy to be measured.”","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_5":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_5","name":"9310","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"On the advice of McKinsey, Nike’s new CEO John Donahoe decided to pivot to a “data-driven” approach, reorganizing the company towards digital direct-to-consumer sales and eliminating the former model centered on distinct categories. The allure is easy to recognize, and it’s the same trap that Boeing and other companies fell into over the preceding years.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":212,"end":231,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fagital.com\u002Fblog\u002Fhow-should-i-categorize-products-on-my-ecommerce-website\u002F","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null},{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":294,"end":320,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fdocseuss.medium.com\u002Fthe-biggest-threat-facing-your-team-whether-youre-a-game-developer-or-a-tech-founder-or-a-ceo-is-8cd1ad359508","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_6":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_6","name":"e6db","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Coming up with new ideas is difficult and requires specialist knowledge. 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And so Nike squared up to eliminate duplicate processes, streamline operations, improve efficiency, and increase productivity — all those phrases that are meant to say “whatever it is you do — do it harder.”","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"ImageMetadata:0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX":{"__typename":"ImageMetadata","id":"0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX","originalHeight":750,"originalWidth":1000,"focusPercentX":null,"focusPercentY":null,"alt":"Elaine looked stricken. Gina snatched the list from her and wrote: 1. Optimize potential. 2. Facilitate empowerment. 3. Implement visioning. 4. Strategize priorities. 5. Augment core structures."},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_8":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_8","name":"b610","type":"IMG","href":null,"layout":"INSET_CENTER","metadata":{"__ref":"ImageMetadata:0*GJUZGzVAqP6Kd6yX"},"text":"This kind of strategy was already a punchline in 1997 (Bellwether, Connie Willis)","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_9":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_9","name":"6cb6","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"How well did it work? Well, that depends on what the intent behind the strategy was. If Donahoe intended to lose $25B in market cap and tank the stock price 32%, it was a smashing success. For those of us who don’t think that’s what he meant to do, it bears reflecting on where he went wrong.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_10":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_10","name":"f312","type":"H3","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"The hard limits of data","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_11":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_11","name":"b428","type":"BQ","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it — a costly myth. — W. Edwards Deming","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":92,"end":109,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fdeming.org\u002Fmyth-if-you-cant-measure-it-you-cant-manage-it\u002F","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null},{"__typename":"Markup","type":"EM","start":89,"end":109,"href":null,"anchorType":null,"userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_12":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_12","name":"8031","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Data isn’t worthless. Data is really, really valuable for telling you what has happened in the past. Great expense has gone into producing data that can tell you what’s going on in the present. 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This model performed the equivalent of handing out flyers for your pizza shop in the pizza shop’s lobby and signaled the business to reorganize from attracting new customers to pumping more money out of the customers they already had.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":251,"end":315,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fthecorrespondent.com\u002F100\u002Fthe-new-dot-com-bubble-is-here-its-called-online-advertising\u002F13228924500-22d5fd24","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_18":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_18","name":"9da2","type":"H3","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"The data-driven death spiral","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_19":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_19","name":"b714","type":"BQ","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Measuring the wrong things is a fast path to disaster. — Jared Spool","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"EM","start":57,"end":68,"href":null,"anchorType":null,"userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_20":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_20","name":"4fc7","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"One might propose that the entire profit motive behind the genre of creative work made up by brand, marketing, and design is to drive behavior change. We enable customers to do something new — whether by informing them that an option exists, or making it more attractive and effective to choose that option over others.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":128,"end":149,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fdesignmuseumfoundation.org\u002Fart-of-designing-for-behavior-change\u002F","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_21":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_21","name":"b4cc","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"And this is where the trouble starts. Nike’s incestuous strategy was bringing in data on existing customers — those whose behavior didn’t need changing.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"EM","start":89,"end":97,"href":null,"anchorType":null,"userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:b2550f443bb3_22":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"b2550f443bb3_22","name":"ea23","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"This is an extremely common mistake in all kinds of industries — the most vocal, most frequent, loudest participants in your research are the least representative of the total addressable market. 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That’s exactly what Nike did with their online shopping data. As a result, their product priorities rapidly diverged from the kind of things ordinary customers buy, while product with mass appeal rotted in warehouses for lack of places to sell it. 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It’s even easier to believe that we can avoid it — because we would simply pick the right data to follow, instead of the wrong data.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[{"__typename":"Markup","type":"A","start":110,"end":138,"href":"https:\u002F\u002Fspavel.medium.com\u002Fwhat-have-we-already-tried-is-the-most-powerful-product-question-you-can-ask-f4cdd31f3a47","anchorType":"LINK","userId":null,"linkMetadata":null}],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"ImageMetadata:1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png":{"__typename":"ImageMetadata","id":"1*qJKsEZNht2cocZLdWbNrTg.png","originalHeight":1425,"originalWidth":1920,"focusPercentX":null,"focusPercentY":null,"alt":"Well, did it work for those people? No, it never does. 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