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style="--spacing-top:40px;--spacing-bottom:32px;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:24px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:32px;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:24px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div class="kCTVx qtHut lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC " data-testid="prism-headline"><h1 class="vMjAx gjbzK tntuS xZEw mTgUP "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">538's final forecasts for the 2024 election</span></h1><p class="jxTEW Poyse uieav lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">The presidency and House are toss-ups, and the GOP is likely to win the Senate.</span></p></div><div class="QHblV nkdHX kvZxL hTosT whbOj " data-testid="prism-byline"><div class="VZTD mLASH OcxMG oJce "><div class="kKfXc ubAkB VZTD rEPuv "><div class="TQPvQ fVlAg HUcap kxY REjk UamUc WxHIR HhZOB yaUf VOJBn KMpjV XSbaH Umfib ukdDD "><span class="tChGB zbFav ">By</span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/gelliott_morris">G. Elliott Morris</a></span><span><span class="EpNlu "> </span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.com/538"><span class="YKjhS "><img alt="via five thirty eight logo" class="awXxV CfkUa EknAv NwgWd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg"/></span></a></span></div><div class="VZTD mLASH gpiba "><div class="xAPpq JQYD ZdbeE jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">November 5, 2024, 7:49 AM</div></div></div></div><div class="RwkLV Wowzl FokqZ LhXlJ FjRYD toBqx " data-testid="prism-share"><div class="JpUfa aYoBt "><ul class="MZaCt dUXCH nyWZo RnMws Hdwln WBHfo tAchw UDeQM XMkl NUfbq kqfZ "><li class="WEJto "><button aria-label="Share Story on Facebook" class="theme-EWITS mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf ZXRVe jIRH NoTgg OJpwZ uklrk wSPfd ofvJb nMRSd YIauu gGlNh ARCOA kyjTO xqlN aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo UVTAB ihLsD niWVk 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class="Caption__Text" aria-live="polite"><span class="Truncate Truncate--collapsed"><span><span class="RichText">Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump</span></span></span></div></div><span aria-label="AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Erin Schaff/The New York Times via AP, Pool" class="RichText Caption__Credit">AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Erin Schaff/The New York Times via AP, Pool</span></div></div></div></aside></div></div></div></div><div class="ScrollSpy_container"><span></span></div><div class="XQpSH " data-testid="prism-divider"></div><div class="xvlfx ZRifP TKoO eaKKC EcdEg bOdfO " data-testid="prism-article-body"><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC">Through Monday, Nov. 4, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/" target="_blank">83 million Americans</a> had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs. Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/closest-presidential-election-1876/story?id=113956232" target="_blank">closest presidential election in over a century</a>.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">The presidency</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Let’s start with the race everyone is watching. According to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/" target="_blank">538’s final presidential forecast</a>, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/" target="_blank">take a few days</a>). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically “ahead.”</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">More than any other factor, our forecast is so close because the polls are so close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2.1 percentage points or fewer in all seven swing states. Trump currently leads by 2.1 points in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/" target="_blank">Arizona</a>, 0.9 points in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/" target="_blank">North Carolina</a>, 0.8 points in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/" target="_blank">Georgia</a> and 0.3 points in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/" target="_blank">Nevada</a>. Harris is up by 1.0 point in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/" target="_blank">Wisconsin</a> and in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/" target="_blank">Michigan</a>. And in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/" target="_blank">Pennsylvania</a> (the state that’s <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races" target="_blank">most likely to decide the outcome of the election</a>), Harris has a tiny 0.2-point edge.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"></div></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">But it is worth stressing that the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/" target="_blank">polls will not be exactly correct</a>. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In other words, you should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very narrow advantages for the leader in each key state, that means there’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the election.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:59.25925925925925%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">538's final presidential election forecast.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593" target="_blank">are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout</a>. If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA" target="_blank">319 Electoral College votes</a>:</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:94.11764705882352%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris wins all seven key swing states.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News photo illustration</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Meanwhile, Trump would win with <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA" target="_blank">312 electoral votes</a> if the polls underestimate him by the same amount:</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:94.11764705882352%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where former President Donald Trump wins all seven key swing states.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News photo illustration</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Hopefully, you can see just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="min-height:250px;transition:min-height 0.3s linear 0s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-box" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-box ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-box" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-box"></div></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">The House of Representatives</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans managed to win back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But they <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/midterm1.pdf" target="_blank">dramatically underperformed historical expectations</a>, especially in seats where their candidates <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/electiondenying-republican-candidates-underperformed-in-the-2022-midterms/E42E3513A1DCD141A8470852892198C7" target="_blank">denied the results of the 2020 election</a>. They ended up winning just 222 seats — barely enough to wield a functional majority (and sometimes it <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/house-republicans-failed-elect-speaker/story?id=104150001" target="_blank">wasn’t even that functional</a>).</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">According to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/" target="_blank">538’s final House forecast</a>, the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024. We give them a 49-in-100 chance of controlling the House, while Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of taking control. But whichever party wins a majority may find it so narrow as to be ungovernable: The median outcome in our forecast is that Democrats win just a one-seat majority.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Yet there is considerable uncertainty here, too. Because House polls are subject to a lot of error, and the other indicators that our House uses can be very noisy, our model thinks there is about a 1-in-2 chance that one party wins a double-digit majority.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:59.25925925925925%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">538's final House forecast.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">To win a double-digit majority, Democrats would have to win all of the seats our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic” and “Toss-up” and secure two out of the 23 seats we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.” Conversely, Republicans would have to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, all the “Toss-ups,” and four seats where Democrats are currently favored. Such performances sound ambitious, but it’s common for parties to sweep most or all of the toss-ups when they beat expectations.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">One final point on where to expect surprises. We already know that we aren’t going to pick the “right” winners in each seat. That’s by design. Our goal isn’t to pick winners; it’s to correctly estimate probabilities. And for us to succeed in that regard, candidates with a 75-in-100 chance of winning need to win 75 times out of 100 — and lose 25 times out of 100. Our final forecast rates 66 seats as “Toss-up,” “Lean” or “Likely.” Based on how well our model would have predicted similar races in past elections, we expect 14 of those districts to go to the party that’s not favored to win. What’s more, we expect three upsets in districts rated as “Solid” for either party — which means they have at least a 98-in-100 chance of winning.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"></div></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">The Senate</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/senate/" target="_blank">Our model gives Republicans</a> a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate).**</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Republicans’ strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a 41-in-100 chance of beating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, just a 1-in-1,000 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:59.25925925925925%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">538's final Senate forecast.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95 percent of the time, they will need to pick up another seat elsewhere in order to keep their majority. According to our forecast, their best chances of doing so are in Florida or Texas, but they only have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That’s not nothing; it’s about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a 1. But it’s still a fairly uphill climb for Democrats.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Our final word</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">This is a good time to remind people that our forecasts are not crystal balls. And especially in a year with races this close, they cannot provide more certainty than the data available to us. The point of creating election forecasting models, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593" target="_blank">as I wrote last week</a>, isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all doubt about what could happen. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In the presidential and House elections, if the polls are off a historically normal amount, either party could come out ahead. In the Senate, the polls would need to be off by more than they were in 2020 in at least one state. That is possible, but given the other information available to us about the seats up for grabs, we think it’s unlikely Democrats will hold the chamber.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-3"></div></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Footnotes</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">*Technically, Harris has a 50.33 percent chance to win and Trump has a 49.45 percent chance to win, and there is a 0.22 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. This is why the rounded numbers appear not to add up to 100 percent.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN">**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party.</p></div><div></div><div class="Article__Footer Article__Footer--news"><div class="Article__Footer--items flex flex-wrap flex-no-wrap items-center justify-between"><section class="Share flex flex-no-wrap"></section></div><div class="StoryDivider StoryDivider--logo"><hr/><img alt="ABC News" class="Image Logo Logo__xxxl" data-mptype="image" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7"/><hr/></div></div><div class="taboola bmjsw lZur " data-testid="prism-taboola" style="min-height:800px"><div id="taboola-below-article-thumbnails"></div></div></div></div><div class="theme-e FITT_Article_main__sidebar oBTii mrzah mZWbG RCVjw fjcc BFuEm " data-testid="prism-GridColumn" style="--grid-column-span-lg:9;--grid-column-span-xl:8;--grid-column-span-xxl:8;--grid-column-start-xxs:auto;--grid-column-start-xs:auto;--grid-column-start-sm:auto;--grid-column-start-md:auto;--grid-column-start-lg:16;--grid-column-start-xl:17;--grid-column-start-xxl:17"><div style="--spacing-top:48px;--spacing-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:40px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:40px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div><section class="CHWlW ZgZTu FlDNH hQfuy feniZ wBpop uAyYK yJYJo OGgqj tQHio PCVZs Kiog iKqXF eeiyR " data-testid="prism-collection"><header class="mLASH VZTD bhaVx "><div><h2 class="KuBvM RTkZF lFzlq GbVC HkWF exKgG kGyAC SwCrv ">Popular Reads</h2></div></header><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/people-trump-picked-key-positions-115741492" aria-label="Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far 2024-11-11T18:17:59Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/b932ba77-6158-47a1-a842-2b2b31905279/wirestory_243d73610b03a3ee18c4d5f68756af7c_square.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="HerearethepeopleTrumheadline">Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="HerearethepeopleTrumpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 11, 1:17 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/49-ballot-measures-watch-2024-election/story?id=115453352" aria-label="49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election 2024-11-04T21:24:45Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/38f1000f-d81a-4942-ae1a-dec7169510ce/538_BallotMeasures_v02_DP_1730739631797_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="49ballotmeasurestowaheadline">49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="49ballotmeasurestowapubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 4, 4:24 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tracking-trump-named-serve-cabinet-administration/story?id=115777302" aria-label="Tracking Trump's picks for his Cabinet 2024-11-23T21:51:12Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ba63aa20-a6c6-457a-b2a9-281c9e563464/trump-rubio-file-gty-ml-241111_1731345766304_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="TrackingTrumpspicksfheadline">Tracking Trump's picks for his Cabinet</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="TrackingTrumpspicksfpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 23, 4:51 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/trump-chooses-gop-us-rep-lori-chavez-deremer-116152548" aria-label="Trump has chooses GOP U.S. Rep. 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Lori Chavez-DeRemer as his nominee to lead the Labor Department</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="TrumphaschoosesGOPUSpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 22, 7:29 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-manhattan-district-attorney-case-donald-trump/story?id=98389444" aria-label="Timeline: Manhattan DA case against Donald Trump 2024-11-22T20:12:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/e46058f8-960a-4968-bb6f-26725a6735df/trump-indictment-florida-conference-rt-lv-230404-2_1680656222524_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="TimelineManhattanDAcheadline">Timeline: Manhattan DA case against Donald Trump</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="TimelineManhattanDAcpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 22, 3:12 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div></section></div><div class="LivePromotion 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On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them."]},{"type":"p","content":["Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs. Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the ",{"type":"a","content":["closest presidential election in over a century"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/closest-presidential-election-1876/story?id=113956232","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"h2","content":["The presidency"]},{"type":"p","content":["Let’s start with the race everyone is watching. According to ",{"type":"a","content":["538’s final presidential forecast"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/","target":"_blank"}},", Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could ",{"type":"a","content":["take a few days"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/","target":"_blank"}},"). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails."]},{"type":"p","content":["Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically “ahead.”"]},{"type":"p","content":["More than any other factor, our forecast is so close because the polls are so close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2.1 percentage points or fewer in all seven swing states. Trump currently leads by 2.1 points in ",{"type":"a","content":["Arizona"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/","target":"_blank"}},", 0.9 points in ",{"type":"a","content":["North Carolina"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/","target":"_blank"}},", 0.8 points in ",{"type":"a","content":["Georgia"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/","target":"_blank"}}," and 0.3 points in ",{"type":"a","content":["Nevada"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/","target":"_blank"}},". Harris is up by 1.0 point in ",{"type":"a","content":["Wisconsin"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/","target":"_blank"}}," and in ",{"type":"a","content":["Michigan"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/","target":"_blank"}},". And in ",{"type":"a","content":["Pennsylvania"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/","target":"_blank"}}," (the state that’s ",{"type":"a","content":["most likely to decide the outcome of the election"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races","target":"_blank"}},"), Harris has a tiny 0.2-point edge."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"p","content":["But it is worth stressing that the ",{"type":"a","content":["polls will not be exactly correct"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/","target":"_blank"}},". Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans."]},{"type":"p","content":["In other words, you should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very narrow advantages for the leader in each key state, that means there’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the election."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538","text":"538's final presidential election forecast.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"27x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, ",{"type":"a","content":["are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593","target":"_blank"}},". If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with ",{"type":"a","content":["319 Electoral College votes"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA","target":"_blank"}},":"]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"ABC News photo illustration","text":"ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris wins all seven key swing states.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"17x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Meanwhile, Trump would win with ",{"type":"a","content":["312 electoral votes"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA","target":"_blank"}}," if the polls underestimate him by the same amount:"]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"ABC News photo illustration","text":"ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where former President Donald Trump wins all seven key swing states.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"17x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Hopefully, you can see just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"type":"fitt-article-inline-box","className":"fitt-article-inline-box"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"size":[0,250]},"regular":{"size":[0,250]}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"h2","content":["The House of Representatives"]},{"type":"p","content":["In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans managed to win back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But they ",{"type":"a","content":["dramatically underperformed historical expectations"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/midterm1.pdf","target":"_blank"}},", especially in seats where their candidates ",{"type":"a","content":["denied the results of the 2020 election"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/electiondenying-republican-candidates-underperformed-in-the-2022-midterms/E42E3513A1DCD141A8470852892198C7","target":"_blank"}},". They ended up winning just 222 seats — barely enough to wield a functional majority (and sometimes it ",{"type":"a","content":["wasn’t even that functional"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/house-republicans-failed-elect-speaker/story?id=104150001","target":"_blank"}},")."]},{"type":"p","content":["According to ",{"type":"a","content":["538’s final House forecast"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/","target":"_blank"}},", the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024. We give them a 49-in-100 chance of controlling the House, while Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of taking control. But whichever party wins a majority may find it so narrow as to be ungovernable: The median outcome in our forecast is that Democrats win just a one-seat majority."]},{"type":"p","content":["Yet there is considerable uncertainty here, too. Because House polls are subject to a lot of error, and the other indicators that our House uses can be very noisy, our model thinks there is about a 1-in-2 chance that one party wins a double-digit majority."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538","text":"538's final House forecast.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/46777353-5c8c-4ad3-a1f4-fb2c89c98cf2/final-forecast1-abc-ml-241105_1730808839134_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"27x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["To win a double-digit majority, Democrats would have to win all of the seats our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic” and “Toss-up” and secure two out of the 23 seats we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.” Conversely, Republicans would have to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, all the “Toss-ups,” and four seats where Democrats are currently favored. Such performances sound ambitious, but it’s common for parties to sweep most or all of the toss-ups when they beat expectations."]},{"type":"p","content":["One final point on where to expect surprises. We already know that we aren’t going to pick the “right” winners in each seat. That’s by design. Our goal isn’t to pick winners; it’s to correctly estimate probabilities. And for us to succeed in that regard, candidates with a 75-in-100 chance of winning need to win 75 times out of 100 — and lose 25 times out of 100. Our final forecast rates 66 seats as “Toss-up,” “Lean” or “Likely.” Based on how well our model would have predicted similar races in past elections, we expect 14 of those districts to go to the party that’s not favored to win. What’s more, we expect three upsets in districts rated as “Solid” for either party — which means they have at least a 98-in-100 chance of winning."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"h2","content":["The Senate"]},{"type":"p","content":["And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. ",{"type":"a","content":["Our model gives Republicans"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/senate/","target":"_blank"}}," a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate).**"]},{"type":"p","content":["Republicans’ strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a 41-in-100 chance of beating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, just a 1-in-1,000 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538","text":"538's final Senate forecast.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/6f6f912f-a8d7-43ff-85c2-8828522e4924/final-Senate-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808839129_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"27x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95 percent of the time, they will need to pick up another seat elsewhere in order to keep their majority. According to our forecast, their best chances of doing so are in Florida or Texas, but they only have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That’s not nothing; it’s about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a 1. But it’s still a fairly uphill climb for Democrats."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Our final word"]},{"type":"p","content":["This is a good time to remind people that our forecasts are not crystal balls. And especially in a year with races this close, they cannot provide more certainty than the data available to us. The point of creating election forecasting models, ",{"type":"a","content":["as I wrote last week"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593","target":"_blank"}},", isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all doubt about what could happen. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are."]},{"type":"p","content":["In the presidential and House elections, if the polls are off a historically normal amount, either party could come out ahead. In the Senate, the polls would need to be off by more than they were in 2020 in at least one state. That is possible, but given the other information available to us about the seats up for grabs, we think it’s unlikely Democrats will hold the chamber."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-3"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"h2","content":["Footnotes"]},{"type":"p","content":["*Technically, Harris has a 50.33 percent chance to win and Trump has a 49.45 percent chance to win, and there is a 0.22 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. This is why the rounded numbers appear not to add up to 100 percent."]},{"type":"p","content":["**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party."]}]],"blockquote":{"simple":true,"disableQuotationMark":true},"dateline":"","wordCount":1462},"config":{"gridDisplayMode":"none"},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"RelatedTags","props":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[]},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"ArticleFooter","props":{"key":"footer-undefined","shareURLs":{},"title":"","dividerData":{"logoAlt":"ABC News","logoSrc":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoSize":"xxxl","logoDefaultImg":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoHeight":56,"logoWidth":112,"className":"StoryDivider--logo"},"socialShareSize":16,"showComments":true},"config":{}},{"name":"Taboola","props":{"data":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"},"src":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-final-forecasts-2024-election/story?id=115511051","position":"bottom","pageType":"article"},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true}],"topComponents":[],"endComponents":[{"name":"NewsletterForm","props":{"articleConfig":{"align":"full"},"placement":"sidebar","isCloseable":false,"heading":"Want the latest politics news? 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On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.</p><p>Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs. Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/closest-presidential-election-1876/story?id=113956232\" target=\"_blank\">closest presidential election in over a century</a>.</p><h2>The presidency</h2><p>Let’s start with the race everyone is watching. According to <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/\" target=\"_blank\">538’s final presidential forecast</a>, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/\" target=\"_blank\">take a few days</a>). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails.</p><p>Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically “ahead.”</p><p>More than any other factor, our forecast is so close because the polls are so close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2.1 percentage points or fewer in all seven swing states. Trump currently leads by 2.1 points in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/\" target=\"_blank\">Arizona</a>, 0.9 points in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/\" target=\"_blank\">North Carolina</a>, 0.8 points in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/\" target=\"_blank\">Georgia</a> and 0.3 points in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/\" target=\"_blank\">Nevada</a>. Harris is up by 1.0 point in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/\" target=\"_blank\">Wisconsin</a> and in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/\" target=\"_blank\">Michigan</a>. And in <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/\" target=\"_blank\">Pennsylvania</a> (the state that’s <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races\" target=\"_blank\">most likely to decide the outcome of the election</a>), Harris has a tiny 0.2-point edge.</p><p>But it is worth stressing that the <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/\" target=\"_blank\">polls will not be exactly correct</a>. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans.</p><p>In other words, you should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very narrow advantages for the leader in each key state, that means there’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the election.</p><p><inline1></p><p>And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593\" target=\"_blank\">are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout</a>. If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA\" target=\"_blank\">319 Electoral College votes</a>:</p><p><inline2></p><p>Meanwhile, Trump would win with <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA\" target=\"_blank\">312 electoral votes</a> if the polls underestimate him by the same amount:</p><p><inline3></p><p>Hopefully, you can see just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it.</p><h2>The House of Representatives</h2><p>In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans managed to win back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But they <a href=\"https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/midterm1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">dramatically underperformed historical expectations</a>, especially in seats where their candidates <a href=\"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/electiondenying-republican-candidates-underperformed-in-the-2022-midterms/E42E3513A1DCD141A8470852892198C7\" target=\"_blank\">denied the results of the 2020 election</a>. They ended up winning just 222 seats — barely enough to wield a functional majority (and sometimes it <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/house-republicans-failed-elect-speaker/story?id=104150001\" target=\"_blank\">wasn’t even that functional</a>).</p><p>According to <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/\" target=\"_blank\">538’s final House forecast</a>, the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024. We give them a 49-in-100 chance of controlling the House, while Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of taking control. But whichever party wins a majority may find it so narrow as to be ungovernable: The median outcome in our forecast is that Democrats win just a one-seat majority.</p><p>Yet there is considerable uncertainty here, too. Because House polls are subject to a lot of error, and the other indicators that our House uses can be very noisy, our model thinks there is about a 1-in-2 chance that one party wins a double-digit majority.</p><p><inline4></p><p>To win a double-digit majority, Democrats would have to win all of the seats our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic” and “Toss-up” and secure two out of the 23 seats we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.” Conversely, Republicans would have to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, all the “Toss-ups,” and four seats where Democrats are currently favored. Such performances sound ambitious, but it’s common for parties to sweep most or all of the toss-ups when they beat expectations.</p><p>One final point on where to expect surprises. We already know that we aren’t going to pick the “right” winners in each seat. That’s by design. Our goal isn’t to pick winners; it’s to correctly estimate probabilities. And for us to succeed in that regard, candidates with a 75-in-100 chance of winning need to win 75 times out of 100 — and lose 25 times out of 100. Our final forecast rates 66 seats as “Toss-up,” “Lean” or “Likely.” Based on how well our model would have predicted similar races in past elections, we expect 14 of those districts to go to the party that’s not favored to win. What’s more, we expect three upsets in districts rated as “Solid” for either party — which means they have at least a 98-in-100 chance of winning.</p><h2>The Senate</h2><p>And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/senate/\" target=\"_blank\">Our model gives Republicans</a> a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate).**</p><p>Republicans’ strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a 41-in-100 chance of beating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, just a 1-in-1,000 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat.</p><p><inline5></p><p>If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95 percent of the time, they will need to pick up another seat elsewhere in order to keep their majority. According to our forecast, their best chances of doing so are in Florida or Texas, but they only have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That’s not nothing; it’s about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a 1. But it’s still a fairly uphill climb for Democrats.</p><h2>Our final word</h2><p>This is a good time to remind people that our forecasts are not crystal balls. And especially in a year with races this close, they cannot provide more certainty than the data available to us. The point of creating election forecasting models, <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593\" target=\"_blank\">as I wrote last week</a>, isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all doubt about what could happen. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are.</p><p>In the presidential and House elections, if the polls are off a historically normal amount, either party could come out ahead. In the Senate, the polls would need to be off by more than they were in 2020 in at least one state. That is possible, but given the other information available to us about the seats up for grabs, we think it’s unlikely Democrats will hold the chamber.</p><h2>Footnotes</h2><p>*Technically, Harris has a 50.33 percent chance to win and Trump has a 49.45 percent chance to win, and there is a 0.22 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. This is why the rounded numbers appear not to add up to 100 percent.</p><p>**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party.</p>","publishedDate":"2024-11-05T12:49:00Z","contributors":[{"name":"G. Elliott Morris","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/gelliott_morris","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"}],"authorsStr":"G. 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