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style="--spacing-top:40px;--spacing-bottom:32px;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:24px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:32px;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:24px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div class="kCTVx qtHut lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC " data-testid="prism-headline"><h1 class="vMjAx gjbzK tntuS eHrJ mTgUP "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout</span></h1><p class="jxTEW Poyse uieav lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.</span></p></div><div class="QHblV nkdHX kvZxL hTosT whbOj " data-testid="prism-byline"><div class="VZTD mLASH OcxMG oJce "><div class="kKfXc ubAkB VZTD rEPuv "><div class="TQPvQ fVlAg HUcap kxY REjk UamUc WxHIR HhZOB yaUf VOJBn KMpjV XSbaH Umfib ukdDD "><span class="tChGB zbFav ">By</span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/gelliott_morris">G. Elliott Morris</a></span><span><span class="EpNlu "> </span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.com/538"><span class="YKjhS "><img alt="via five thirty eight logo" class="awXxV CfkUa EknAv NwgWd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg"/></span></a></span></div><div class="VZTD mLASH gpiba "><div class="xAPpq JQYD ZdbeE jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">October 30, 2024, 1:20 PM</div></div></div></div><div class="RwkLV Wowzl FokqZ LhXlJ FjRYD toBqx " data-testid="prism-share"><div class="JpUfa aYoBt "><ul class="MZaCt dUXCH nyWZo RnMws Hdwln WBHfo tAchw UDeQM XMkl NUfbq kqfZ "><li class="WEJto "><button aria-label="Share Story on Facebook" class="theme-EWITS mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf ZXRVe jIRH NoTgg OJpwZ uklrk wSPfd ofvJb nMRSd YIauu gGlNh ARCOA kyjTO xqlN aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo UVTAB ihLsD niWVk 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aria-hidden="false"><figure class="Image aspect-ratio--parent MediaPlaceholder__Image"><div class="RatioFrame aspect-ratio--16x9"></div><div class="Image__Wrapper aspect-ratio--child"><img aria-hidden="false" alt="" class="" data-mptype="image" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/fa8d89e9-3e51-4fb4-9f6c-e675e84ceadb/538_CloseElection_v02_ks_1730316184119_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=992"/></div></figure><div class="MediaPlaceholder__Overlay absolute-fill flex flex-center-all"><div class="MediaPlaceholder__Button flex flex-center-all"><svg focusable="false" aria-hidden="true" class="MediaPlaceholder__Icon MediaPlaceholder__Icon--video icon__svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><use xlink:href="#icon__controls__play"></use></svg></div><div aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Duration: 1:55" class="MediaPlaceholder__Pill items-center absolute flex">1:55</div></div><div class="MediaPlaceholder__PlaybackWrapper absolute-fill"></div></div><div class="Caption__Wrapper"><div class="Caption"><div class="Caption__TextWrapper"><div class="Caption__Text" aria-live="polite"><span class="Truncate Truncate--collapsed"><span><span class="RichText">Either candidate could win all seven main swing states.</span></span></span></div></div><span aria-label="ABC News Photo Illustration, Adobe stock" class="RichText Caption__Credit">ABC News Photo Illustration, Adobe stock</span></div></div></div></aside></div></div></div></div><div class="ScrollSpy_container"><span></span></div><div class="XQpSH " data-testid="prism-divider"></div><div class="xvlfx ZRifP TKoO eaKKC EcdEg bOdfO " data-testid="prism-article-body"><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC">In the final days before the 2020 presidential election, polls generally pointed to a clear victory for now-President Joe Biden. But when the votes were counted, it turned out the polls had overestimated him — Biden won, but by the skin of his teeth. That, of course, was similar to what happened in 2016, when former President Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win a surprise Electoral College victory despite relatively accurate national polls.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">This raises two questions for 2024: First, what would happen if the polls are off again? And second, how likely is it that the polls will be off by as much as they were in 2016 or 2020?</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Either Trump or Harris could win comfortably</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In 2020, polls overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf" target="_blank">about 4 percentage points</a> in competitive states. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/" target="_blank">Arizona</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/" target="_blank">Georgia</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/" target="_blank">Michigan</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/" target="_blank">Nevada</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/" target="_blank">North Carolina</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/" target="_blank">Pennsylvania</a> and <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/" target="_blank">Wisconsin</a>. That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA" target="_blank">312 Electoral College votes</a>.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:94.11764705882352%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where former President Donald Trump wins all seven key swing states.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News photo illustration</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/" target="_blank">impossible to predict in advance</a>, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA" target="_blank">319 electoral votes</a>.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:94.11764705882352%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="" class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris wins all seven key swing states.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">ABC News photo illustration</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Note that neither of these are particularly close outcomes, at least in the Electoral College.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"></div></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Some amount of polling error is normal</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table next week. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/" target="_blank">our forecast gives Trump a </a><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/" target="_blank">52-in-100</a><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/" target="_blank"> chance</a> to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by calculating how many Electoral College votes each candidate would win given certain amounts of polling error in their favor, and then counting up how many times each candidate wins among these simulations. (More about that <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-2024-presidential-election-forecast-works/story?id=113068753" target="_blank">in our methodology</a>.)</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin.* This error is not uniform across states — for example, states with different demographics tend to have <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/states-accurate-polls/story?id=115108709" target="_blank">different levels of polling error</a> — but, generally speaking, when polls overestimate a candidate, they tend to overestimate them across the board. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50 percent of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50 percent of the time, Harris does.)</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">This point is worth dwelling on. Because our average expectation is for there to be a decently large polling error at least half of the time, there is actually a very low probability that the polls are perfect and the election plays out exactly how the polls suggest. Let's look at this using the largest lead either candidate has in the seven swing states: Trump's current 2-point lead in Arizona. Nationwide, our model expects polling error to be greater than 2 points in either direction 62 percent of the time. In other words, there's only about a 1-in-3 chance that polls miss by less than 2 points (which we would consider a small polling error historically).</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Given that all seven key swing states are so close, even small polling errors in the same direction can have a big impact on who wins the election. According to the simulations from our model, there is a 60-in-100 chance either candidate wins over 300 Electoral College votes — which Harris could do by winning five of the seven swing states and Trump six out of the seven. By modern standards, I think it's fair to consider this a blowout win — given how closely divided the country is, it's relatively unlikely for either candidate to win much more than this (even to get to 320 electoral votes, Trump would have to win a state like Minnesota and Harris would have to win a state like Florida).</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Of course, the probability of a blowout either way depends heavily on the popular vote outcome. If Harris wins the national popular vote by 3 points, she's much likelier to win the states that will decide the Electoral College than if she loses the popular vote by 3. This is on vivid display in the chart below, which takes all the simulations from our model and buckets them by popular vote outcome.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">As you can see, Trump is favored to win the election even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 points, which is what our <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/" target="_blank">national polling average</a> currently suggests. And if the national polls turn out to be underestimating him, with Trump winning the popular vote by 1-2 points, he would be favored to win in a blowout.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. And if she wins the popular vote by 4.5 points (Biden's popular-vote margin in 2020), she is favored to win in a blowout of her own.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Polls are inherently uncertain. This is why we model.</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">So far, we have said little about the actual polls themselves. And there actually is some reason to believe <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-fewer-polls-higher-quality/story?id=115157919" target="_blank">polls may be more accurate this year than in the past</a>. While the share of polls conducted or sponsored by Republican-aligned organizations is up — something <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election-toss/story?id=114907042" target="_blank">we have written about</a> — the overall share of partisan polls is lower than in previous years, and the average 538 pollster rating of 2024's polls is higher than past years'. All else being equal, that should make for better polls than in 2016 and 2020. We have also seen fewer polls from the firms that overestimated Democrats the most in those years.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">However, the news is not all good. In particular, pollsters are still reporting difficulty <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://x.com/UpshotNYT/status/1580188137359552512" target="_blank">reaching voters</a> at all, and Trump supporters may still be less likely to respond to polls — <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/370649/trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss" target="_blank">even high-quality ones</a>. This means that pollsters are as reliant as ever (<a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-2024-election-polls-challenges-rcna176467" target="_blank">or maybe more!</a>) on weighting and modeling to get good estimates of public opinion. But the decisions they <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/" target="_blank">make matter a lot</a>, and in particular, there appear to be large differences between polls that try to use these techniques to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/pollsters-are-weighting-surveys-differently-in-2024/" target="_blank">balance their samples by party or past vote</a> and those that do not.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"></div></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">And that's where election models like 538's become really helpful. The point of creating election forecasting models isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all error from the polls. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are. By analyzing possible errors and uncertainties in the polls, these models help us approach the election with a clearer sense of how likely each side is to win (and by how much).</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">As we enter the final week of this election, it is a good time to remember that uncertainty is an inherent part of polling and elections. That is especially true this year, with deadlocked races across the swing states. Given that polls are imperfect, our expectation is for them to be off by some amount in either direction. And if the polls do end up being off, given the closeness of the election, there is a rather wide spread in the range of Electoral College outcomes.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In other words, we can sum up the current state of the race like this: Although Trump and Harris have roughly equal chances of winning the election, the final margin is not necessarily going to be close. In fact, there's a pretty high probability that it won't be.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Footnotes</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN">*We simulate potential polling errors for future elections using a fat-tailed distribution — specifically, a Student's t distribution with five degrees of freedom (a parameter that increases or decreases the likelihood of surprise "tail" events in our simulations). This 3.8-point error is the spread, or <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution" target="_blank">sigma</a>, of that distribution — analogous to the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation" target="_blank">standard deviation of a normal distribution</a>. 538's distributions are slightly wider than the ones used by other forecasting models. This is because our model accounts for the fact that polling misses have gotten bigger over the last decade. Therefore, our model anticipates more polling error than it would if we assumed a constant level of error over time, like most other forecasts do.</p></div><div><div data-testid="prism-tags"><h2 class="QOIir HJolv pZjYK JKlkC RZhHM ">Related Topics</h2><ul class="VZTD UeCOM dAmzA ltDkr qBPOY uoPjL "><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zYXIH jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ eqFg wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT LaUnX EgONj ibBnq kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX oIWqB mzm MbcTC sXtkB yayQB vXSTR ENhiS dQa-Du SVBll bpBbX GpQCA tuAKv xTell wdAqb ZqGqs LVAIE TnrRA uECag DcwSV XnBOJ cELRj SUAFz XzYk zkmjG aSyef pFen hoNVj TQOOL Haltu NafGB KpEhF jyjDy kZHqU FZKIw QddLR SKDYB UmcQM giepU cTjQC aRMla MMxXy fFMcX PbMFf hJRbU MRTyf iFJTR koyYF TkdYt DZNRX MALjb VUFMN " data-testid="prism-Tag" href="/alerts/538" data-pos="0"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE ">538</span></a></li><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zYXIH jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ eqFg wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT LaUnX EgONj ibBnq kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX oIWqB mzm MbcTC sXtkB yayQB vXSTR ENhiS dQa-Du SVBll bpBbX GpQCA tuAKv xTell wdAqb ZqGqs LVAIE TnrRA uECag DcwSV XnBOJ cELRj SUAFz XzYk zkmjG aSyef pFen hoNVj TQOOL Haltu NafGB KpEhF jyjDy kZHqU FZKIw QddLR SKDYB UmcQM giepU cTjQC aRMla MMxXy fFMcX PbMFf hJRbU MRTyf iFJTR koyYF TkdYt DZNRX MALjb VUFMN " data-testid="prism-Tag" href="/alerts/Elections" data-pos="1"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE ">2024 Elections</span></a></li></ul></div></div><div class="Article__Footer Article__Footer--news"><div class="Article__Footer--items flex flex-wrap flex-no-wrap items-center justify-between"><section class="Share flex flex-no-wrap"></section></div><div class="StoryDivider StoryDivider--logo"><hr/><img alt="ABC News" class="Image Logo Logo__xxxl" data-mptype="image" 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style="--spacing-top:48px;--spacing-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:40px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:40px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div><section class="CHWlW ZgZTu FlDNH hQfuy feniZ wBpop uAyYK yJYJo OGgqj tQHio PCVZs Kiog iKqXF eeiyR " data-testid="prism-collection"><header class="mLASH VZTD bhaVx "><div><h2 class="KuBvM RTkZF lFzlq GbVC HkWF exKgG kGyAC SwCrv ">Popular Reads</h2></div></header><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/german-leader-merkel-felt-sorrow-trumps-comeback-recalls-116125769" aria-label="German ex-leader Merkel says she felt sorrow at Trump's comeback and recalls awkward non-handshake 2024-11-22T12:09:29Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/301390e4-4ea0-4a72-8c3a-e9e03f994109/wirestory_e74e410c08633855b13e84bf37b5c2fb_square.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="GermanexleaderMerkelheadline">German ex-leader Merkel says she felt sorrow at Trump's comeback and recalls awkward non-handshake</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="GermanexleaderMerkelpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 22, 7:09 AM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/people-trump-picked-key-positions-115741492" aria-label="Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far 2024-11-11T18:17:59Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/b932ba77-6158-47a1-a842-2b2b31905279/wirestory_243d73610b03a3ee18c4d5f68756af7c_square.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="HerearethepeopleTrumheadline">Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="HerearethepeopleTrumpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 11, 1:17 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tracking-trump-named-serve-cabinet-administration/story?id=115777302" aria-label="Tracking Trump's picks for his Cabinet 2024-11-23T21:51:12Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ba63aa20-a6c6-457a-b2a9-281c9e563464/trump-rubio-file-gty-ml-241111_1731345766304_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="TrackingTrumpspicksfheadline">Tracking Trump's picks for his Cabinet</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="TrackingTrumpspicksfpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 23, 4:51 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-election-hinge-pennsylvania/story?id=115248967" aria-label="The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania 2024-10-29T20:13:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/9381e3d4-f9a4-4372-949e-05b05673b90d/PA_Polling_v03_DP_1730211471768_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="The2024electioncouldheadline">The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="The2024electioncouldpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Oct 29, 4:13 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-announces-pam-bondi-new-attorney-general-pick/story?id=116115173" aria-label="What to know about Trump AG pick Pam Bondi 2024-11-22T00:41:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/b365f075-36a3-4304-918a-f12e1960ae77/pam-bondi-ap-jt-241121_1732232926174_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="WhattoknowaboutTrumpheadline">What to know about Trump AG pick Pam Bondi</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="WhattoknowaboutTrumppubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 21, 7:41 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div></section></div><div class="LivePromotion LivePromotion--centered"><div class="LivePromotion--title--container"><span class="circle"></span><h3 class="LivePromotion--title">ABC News Live</h3></div><figure class="Image aspect-ratio--parent 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candidate could win all seven main swing states.","credit":"ABC News Photo Illustration, Adobe stock","streams":{"m3u8":{"16x9":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/10/241029_538_PoliticsPod_clip1_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"}},"autoplay":true,"muted":true,"shouldDockPlayer":true,"section":"538","appProps":{}},"section":"538","appProps":{}},"config":{}},{"name":"Divider","props":{},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"Body","props":{"body":[[{"type":"p","content":["In the final days before the 2020 presidential election, polls generally pointed to a clear victory for now-President Joe Biden. But when the votes were counted, it turned out the polls had overestimated him — Biden won, but by the skin of his teeth. That, of course, was similar to what happened in 2016, when former President Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win a surprise Electoral College victory despite relatively accurate national polls."]},{"type":"p","content":["This raises two questions for 2024: First, what would happen if the polls are off again? And second, how likely is it that the polls will be off by as much as they were in 2016 or 2020?"]},{"type":"h2","content":["Either Trump or Harris could win comfortably"]},{"type":"p","content":["In 2020, polls overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by ",{"type":"a","content":["about 4 percentage points"],"attrs":{"href":"https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf","target":"_blank"}}," in competitive states. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of ",{"type":"a","content":["Arizona"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["Georgia"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["Michigan"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["Nevada"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["North Carolina"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["Pennsylvania"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/","target":"_blank"}}," and ",{"type":"a","content":["Wisconsin"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/","target":"_blank"}},". That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and ",{"type":"a","content":["312 Electoral College votes"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"ABC News photo illustration","text":"ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where former President Donald Trump wins all seven key swing states.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c67949ad-9b46-4450-badf-b9d37ee45db4/Trumpmap-538-ak-241030_1730299789846_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"17x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is ",{"type":"a","content":["impossible to predict in advance"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/","target":"_blank"}},", and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and ",{"type":"a","content":["319 electoral votes"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"ABC News photo illustration","text":"ABC News interactive electoral map showing scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris wins all seven key swing states.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/92ce2c33-e149-48b1-aeca-86379498d6a9/Harrismap-538-ak-241030_1730300358589_hpEmbed_17x16.JPG?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"17x16"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Note that neither of these are particularly close outcomes, at least in the Electoral College."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"h2","content":["Some amount of polling error is normal"]},{"type":"p","content":["Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table next week. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, ",{"type":"a","content":["our forecast gives Trump a "],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"a","content":["52-in-100"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"a","content":[" chance"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/","target":"_blank"}}," to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by calculating how many Electoral College votes each candidate would win given certain amounts of polling error in their favor, and then counting up how many times each candidate wins among these simulations. (More about that ",{"type":"a","content":["in our methodology"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-2024-presidential-election-forecast-works/story?id=113068753","target":"_blank"}},".)"]},{"type":"p","content":["Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin.* This error is not uniform across states — for example, states with different demographics tend to have ",{"type":"a","content":["different levels of polling error"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/states-accurate-polls/story?id=115108709","target":"_blank"}}," — but, generally speaking, when polls overestimate a candidate, they tend to overestimate them across the board. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50 percent of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50 percent of the time, Harris does.)"]},{"type":"p","content":["This point is worth dwelling on. Because our average expectation is for there to be a decently large polling error at least half of the time, there is actually a very low probability that the polls are perfect and the election plays out exactly how the polls suggest. Let's look at this using the largest lead either candidate has in the seven swing states: Trump's current 2-point lead in Arizona. Nationwide, our model expects polling error to be greater than 2 points in either direction 62 percent of the time. In other words, there's only about a 1-in-3 chance that polls miss by less than 2 points (which we would consider a small polling error historically)."]},{"type":"p","content":["Given that all seven key swing states are so close, even small polling errors in the same direction can have a big impact on who wins the election. According to the simulations from our model, there is a 60-in-100 chance either candidate wins over 300 Electoral College votes — which Harris could do by winning five of the seven swing states and Trump six out of the seven. By modern standards, I think it's fair to consider this a blowout win — given how closely divided the country is, it's relatively unlikely for either candidate to win much more than this (even to get to 320 electoral votes, Trump would have to win a state like Minnesota and Harris would have to win a state like Florida)."]},{"type":"p","content":["Of course, the probability of a blowout either way depends heavily on the popular vote outcome. If Harris wins the national popular vote by 3 points, she's much likelier to win the states that will decide the Electoral College than if she loses the popular vote by 3. This is on vivid display in the chart below, which takes all the simulations from our model and buckets them by popular vote outcome."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22A%20small%20polling%20error%20could%20mean%20a%20blowout%20either%20way%22%20aria-label%3D%22Stacked%20Columns%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-o8QoM%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/o8QoM/3/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22520%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["As you can see, Trump is favored to win the election even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 points, which is what our ",{"type":"a","content":["national polling average"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/","target":"_blank"}}," currently suggests. And if the national polls turn out to be underestimating him, with Trump winning the popular vote by 1-2 points, he would be favored to win in a blowout."]},{"type":"p","content":["Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. And if she wins the popular vote by 4.5 points (Biden's popular-vote margin in 2020), she is favored to win in a blowout of her own."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Polls are inherently uncertain. This is why we model."]},{"type":"p","content":["So far, we have said little about the actual polls themselves. And there actually is some reason to believe ",{"type":"a","content":["polls may be more accurate this year than in the past"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-fewer-polls-higher-quality/story?id=115157919","target":"_blank"}},". While the share of polls conducted or sponsored by Republican-aligned organizations is up — something ",{"type":"a","content":["we have written about"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election-toss/story?id=114907042","target":"_blank"}}," — the overall share of partisan polls is lower than in previous years, and the average 538 pollster rating of 2024's polls is higher than past years'. All else being equal, that should make for better polls than in 2016 and 2020. We have also seen fewer polls from the firms that overestimated Democrats the most in those years."]},{"type":"p","content":["However, the news is not all good. In particular, pollsters are still reporting difficulty ",{"type":"a","content":["reaching voters"],"attrs":{"href":"https://x.com/UpshotNYT/status/1580188137359552512","target":"_blank"}}," at all, and Trump supporters may still be less likely to respond to polls — ",{"type":"a","content":["even high-quality ones"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/370649/trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss","target":"_blank"}},". This means that pollsters are as reliant as ever (",{"type":"a","content":["or maybe more!"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-2024-election-polls-challenges-rcna176467","target":"_blank"}},") on weighting and modeling to get good estimates of public opinion. But the decisions they ",{"type":"a","content":["make matter a lot"],"attrs":{"href":"https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/","target":"_blank"}},", and in particular, there appear to be large differences between polls that try to use these techniques to ",{"type":"a","content":["balance their samples by party or past vote"],"attrs":{"href":"https://goodauthority.org/news/pollsters-are-weighting-surveys-differently-in-2024/","target":"_blank"}}," and those that do not."]},{"type":"p","content":["And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"p","content":["And that's where election models like 538's become really helpful. The point of creating election forecasting models isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all error from the polls. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are. By analyzing possible errors and uncertainties in the polls, these models help us approach the election with a clearer sense of how likely each side is to win (and by how much)."]},{"type":"p","content":["As we enter the final week of this election, it is a good time to remember that uncertainty is an inherent part of polling and elections. That is especially true this year, with deadlocked races across the swing states. Given that polls are imperfect, our expectation is for them to be off by some amount in either direction. And if the polls do end up being off, given the closeness of the election, there is a rather wide spread in the range of Electoral College outcomes."]},{"type":"p","content":["In other words, we can sum up the current state of the race like this: Although Trump and Harris have roughly equal chances of winning the election, the final margin is not necessarily going to be close. In fact, there's a pretty high probability that it won't be."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Footnotes"]},{"type":"p","content":["*We simulate potential polling errors for future elections using a fat-tailed distribution — specifically, a Student's t distribution with five degrees of freedom (a parameter that increases or decreases the likelihood of surprise \"tail\" events in our simulations). This 3.8-point error is the spread, or ",{"type":"a","content":["sigma"],"attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution","target":"_blank"}},", of that distribution — analogous to the ",{"type":"a","content":["standard deviation of a normal distribution"],"attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation","target":"_blank"}},". 538's distributions are slightly wider than the ones used by other forecasting models. This is because our model accounts for the fact that polling misses have gotten bigger over the last decade. Therefore, our model anticipates more polling error than it would if we assumed a constant level of error over time, like most other forecasts do."]}]],"blockquote":{"simple":true,"disableQuotationMark":true},"dateline":"","wordCount":1566},"config":{"gridDisplayMode":"none"},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"RelatedTags","props":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[{"label":"538","href":"/alerts/538"},{"label":"2024 Elections","href":"/alerts/Elections"}]},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"ArticleFooter","props":{"key":"footer-undefined","shareURLs":{},"title":"","dividerData":{"logoAlt":"ABC News","logoSrc":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoSize":"xxxl","logoDefaultImg":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoHeight":56,"logoWidth":112,"className":"StoryDivider--logo"},"socialShareSize":16,"showComments":true},"config":{}},{"name":"Taboola","props":{"data":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"},"src":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593","position":"bottom","pageType":"article"},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true}],"topComponents":[],"endComponents":[{"name":"NewsletterForm","props":{"articleConfig":{"align":"full"},"placement":"sidebar","isCloseable":false,"heading":"Want the latest politics news? 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responsibly","description":"Either candidate could win all seven main swing states.","credit":"ABC News Photo Illustration, Adobe stock","streams":{"m3u8":{"16x9":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/10/241029_538_PoliticsPod_clip1_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"}},"autoplay":true,"muted":true,"shouldDockPlayer":true,"section":"538","appProps":{"apiEnv":"prod"}},"section":"538","appProps":{"apiEnv":"prod"}}},"imageProps":{"caption":{"credit":"ABC News Photo Illustration, Adobe stock","text":"Either candidate could win all seven main swing states.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"Either candidate could win all seven main swing 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But when the votes were counted, it turned out the polls had overestimated him — Biden won, but by the skin of his teeth. That, of course, was similar to what happened in 2016, when former President Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win a surprise Electoral College victory despite relatively accurate national polls.</p><p>This raises two questions for 2024: First, what would happen if the polls are off again? And second, how likely is it that the polls will be off by as much as they were in 2016 or 2020?</p><h2>Either Trump or Harris could win comfortably</h2><p>In 2020, polls overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by <a href=\"https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">about 4 percentage points</a> in competitive states. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/\" target=\"_blank\">Arizona</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/\" target=\"_blank\">Georgia</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/\" target=\"_blank\">Michigan</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/\" target=\"_blank\">Nevada</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/\" target=\"_blank\">North Carolina</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/\" target=\"_blank\">Pennsylvania</a> and <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/\" target=\"_blank\">Wisconsin</a>. That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIyNzE5MTI2MDAwbUuSbFm2bUGWbVGSbFuWbVuSbcm2LA\" target=\"_blank\">312 Electoral College votes</a>.</p><p><inline1></p><p>Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/\" target=\"_blank\">impossible to predict in advance</a>, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDIzOTMyNzI0MzIwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSZFuSbVuSZcm2LA\" target=\"_blank\">319 electoral votes</a>.</p><p><inline2></p><p>Note that neither of these are particularly close outcomes, at least in the Electoral College.</p><h2>Some amount of polling error is normal</h2><p>Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table next week. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/\" target=\"_blank\">our forecast gives Trump a </a><a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/\" target=\"_blank\">52-in-100</a><a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/\" target=\"_blank\"> chance</a> to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by calculating how many Electoral College votes each candidate would win given certain amounts of polling error in their favor, and then counting up how many times each candidate wins among these simulations. (More about that <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-2024-presidential-election-forecast-works/story?id=113068753\" target=\"_blank\">in our methodology</a>.)</p><p>Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin.* This error is not uniform across states — for example, states with different demographics tend to have <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/states-accurate-polls/story?id=115108709\" target=\"_blank\">different levels of polling error</a> — but, generally speaking, when polls overestimate a candidate, they tend to overestimate them across the board. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50 percent of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50 percent of the time, Harris does.)</p><p>This point is worth dwelling on. Because our average expectation is for there to be a decently large polling error at least half of the time, there is actually a very low probability that the polls are perfect and the election plays out exactly how the polls suggest. Let's look at this using the largest lead either candidate has in the seven swing states: Trump's current 2-point lead in Arizona. Nationwide, our model expects polling error to be greater than 2 points in either direction 62 percent of the time. In other words, there's only about a 1-in-3 chance that polls miss by less than 2 points (which we would consider a small polling error historically).</p><p>Given that all seven key swing states are so close, even small polling errors in the same direction can have a big impact on who wins the election. According to the simulations from our model, there is a 60-in-100 chance either candidate wins over 300 Electoral College votes — which Harris could do by winning five of the seven swing states and Trump six out of the seven. By modern standards, I think it's fair to consider this a blowout win — given how closely divided the country is, it's relatively unlikely for either candidate to win much more than this (even to get to 320 electoral votes, Trump would have to win a state like Minnesota and Harris would have to win a state like Florida).</p><p>Of course, the probability of a blowout either way depends heavily on the popular vote outcome. If Harris wins the national popular vote by 3 points, she's much likelier to win the states that will decide the Electoral College than if she loses the popular vote by 3. This is on vivid display in the chart below, which takes all the simulations from our model and buckets them by popular vote outcome.</p><p><inline3></p><p>As you can see, Trump is favored to win the election even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 points, which is what our <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/\" target=\"_blank\">national polling average</a> currently suggests. And if the national polls turn out to be underestimating him, with Trump winning the popular vote by 1-2 points, he would be favored to win in a blowout.</p><p>Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. And if she wins the popular vote by 4.5 points (Biden's popular-vote margin in 2020), she is favored to win in a blowout of her own.</p><h2>Polls are inherently uncertain. This is why we model.</h2><p>So far, we have said little about the actual polls themselves. And there actually is some reason to believe <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-fewer-polls-higher-quality/story?id=115157919\" target=\"_blank\">polls may be more accurate this year than in the past</a>. While the share of polls conducted or sponsored by Republican-aligned organizations is up — something <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election-toss/story?id=114907042\" target=\"_blank\">we have written about</a> — the overall share of partisan polls is lower than in previous years, and the average 538 pollster rating of 2024's polls is higher than past years'. All else being equal, that should make for better polls than in 2016 and 2020. We have also seen fewer polls from the firms that overestimated Democrats the most in those years.</p><p>However, the news is not all good. In particular, pollsters are still reporting difficulty <a href=\"https://x.com/UpshotNYT/status/1580188137359552512\" target=\"_blank\">reaching voters</a> at all, and Trump supporters may still be less likely to respond to polls — <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/370649/trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss\" target=\"_blank\">even high-quality ones</a>. This means that pollsters are as reliant as ever (<a href=\"https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-2024-election-polls-challenges-rcna176467\" target=\"_blank\">or maybe more!</a>) on weighting and modeling to get good estimates of public opinion. But the decisions they <a href=\"https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/\" target=\"_blank\">make matter a lot</a>, and in particular, there appear to be large differences between polls that try to use these techniques to <a href=\"https://goodauthority.org/news/pollsters-are-weighting-surveys-differently-in-2024/\" target=\"_blank\">balance their samples by party or past vote</a> and those that do not.</p><p>And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.</p><p>And that's where election models like 538's become really helpful. The point of creating election forecasting models isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all error from the polls. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are. By analyzing possible errors and uncertainties in the polls, these models help us approach the election with a clearer sense of how likely each side is to win (and by how much).</p><p>As we enter the final week of this election, it is a good time to remember that uncertainty is an inherent part of polling and elections. That is especially true this year, with deadlocked races across the swing states. Given that polls are imperfect, our expectation is for them to be off by some amount in either direction. And if the polls do end up being off, given the closeness of the election, there is a rather wide spread in the range of Electoral College outcomes.</p><p>In other words, we can sum up the current state of the race like this: Although Trump and Harris have roughly equal chances of winning the election, the final margin is not necessarily going to be close. In fact, there's a pretty high probability that it won't be.</p><h2>Footnotes</h2><p>*We simulate potential polling errors for future elections using a fat-tailed distribution — specifically, a Student's t distribution with five degrees of freedom (a parameter that increases or decreases the likelihood of surprise \"tail\" events in our simulations). This 3.8-point error is the spread, or <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution\" target=\"_blank\">sigma</a>, of that distribution — analogous to the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation\" target=\"_blank\">standard deviation of a normal distribution</a>. 538's distributions are slightly wider than the ones used by other forecasting models. This is because our model accounts for the fact that polling misses have gotten bigger over the last decade. Therefore, our model anticipates more polling error than it would if we assumed a constant level of error over time, like most other forecasts do.</p>","publishedDate":"2024-10-30T17:20:00Z","contributors":[{"name":"G. Elliott Morris","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/gelliott_morris","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"}],"authorsStr":"G. Elliott Morris","modifiedDate":"2024-10-30T19:29:29Z","section":"538","wordCount":1579,"relatedTags":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[{"label":"538","href":"/alerts/538"},{"label":"2024 Elections","href":"/alerts/Elections"}]},"lead":{"ratio":"16x9","disableForMobile":false,"type":"xl","mediaType":"video","alignCaptionToBody":true},"ads":{"Sticky":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"RightRail":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"InlineBox":{},"InlineOutstream":{"disabled":false},"Taboola":{"position":"bottom","pageType":"article","config":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"}}},"featuredVideo":{"id":"115281293","type":"video","locator":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/early-voting-data-responsibly-115281293","issued":"2024-10-29T21:01:59Z","created":"2024-10-29T21:01:59Z","modified":"2024-10-30T01:30:38Z","date":"2024-10-29T21:01:59Z","keywords":["early voting","early vote data","2024 presidential election","kamala harris","donald trump","Video","115281293"],"section":"538","genre":"Politics","title":"How to look at early voting data responsibly","headline":"How to look at early voting data responsibly","shortHeadline":"How to look at early voting data responsibly","linkHeadline":"How to look at early voting data responsibly","description":"With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. 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